payitforward wrote:Goes without saying that my "quick rebuild" included a number of fantasy elements. What is life without fantasy?
With all that Bertans brings as a floor spacer, we went 25-47 last year. Part of the reason for that record was the level of Davis Bertans' NBA game.
Bertans shot the 3 extremely well. But, if you combine all of what he did on the floor last year, we would have been a bit better team if an average NBA PF played his minutes. Maybe 1 or 2 games better.
Let me put it another way. Every 40 minutes, Davis scored 4 more points than average for an NBA PF. & it only took him 1.4 extra possessions to do it. That's great.
Of course, if someone else had used those extra 1.4 possessions we would have gotten something out of them! Not 4 points, obviously, but something. We can estimate how much by calculting based on the team's overall efg%. On that basis 1.4 possessions yields 1.5 points.
So Davis' scoring prowess over our team average scoring prowess gained us 2.5 extra points every 40 minutes. That's a good thing.
Unfortunately, in exactly the same way, there were also aspects of his play during those same 40 minutes that lost us other things -- again, as compared to the NBA-average PF -- especially 2.25 defensive rebounds & 1.75 offensive rebounds. Those extra possessions from Mr. Average would supply in excess of the extra 2.5 points Davis accounted for.
I would expect to hear back that none of this really means anything, basketball being such a dynamic & inter-dependent game -- (& this despite the fact that a few minutes earlier or later one can also write that it would be good to draft a guy who rebounds a lot -- in that case, it does seem to matter! ).
It's true in a way. Only one number matters -- we added Davis & went 25-47.
As to pleasing Brad -- he seems a smart guy; I don't think he would have any trouble understanding that you don't pay $15m for Davis Bertans level of output. Moreover, when making the right choices lead to a team that is getting better pretty fast, he'll notice that as well.
Basketball is a team sport. The type of individual box score = team point production analysis you always do has even less relevance with Bertans than with most players because Bertans' effect on the team's production has much to do with things that aren't measured in the box score.
Bertans has best biggest on/off differential on the team. That's not an accident. He had the best on/off differential for San Antonio last year too... by a lot (+11.1). He was the 8th ranked small forward in the league by ESPN's real plus minus.
The Davis Bertans of last year was a very good player, definitely better than an average PF. The guy helps his team outscore the opposition a great deal. My issue with resigning him to a big deal is that I'm worried he'll have a modest dropoff in production.