Trade Talk (Part Four)

[Baseline81]

Again, it's mainly to discuss, but here's NBASupes latest post on Hawksquawk:

Back:

I've been told Minny has up to 12 teams who have given them offers for 1st overall. I was told Indy was by far the most interested but was declined as they only want to move one of Turner or Sabonis and that's it. Minny would like Warren and one of them. Indy is willing to trade Warren/Oladipo but Minny wants assurance on Dipo which will not happen and Indy sees Warren as a main piece.

Minny wants a pick swap with a top 8 team and a 2021 lightly protected 1st like Atlanta got from Dallas. I was told, no one was interested. Minny offered Atlanta the pick for a pick swap and Hunter and was quickly declined and they did the same for Kevin H and was quickly declined as Atlanta had no interest in trading anyone in their core. Atlanta did counter with Bruno and #6 and was declined. As of right now, i am told a sitting offer of 1st/James Johnson for #6 and OKC 1st 2022 is the standing offer. They tired the same with NY. Wanted Robinson/#8 for #1 and was declined. NY offered 8/27 for 1st overall as a standing offer.

Most of the teams who have made a standing offer with Minny are drafting outside of the top 10 and are playoff level teams. I was told that the target of that pick varies. I was told, none of the offers are really that attractive and that Minny is hoping a team will fall in love with a prospect and move up as we get closer to the draft. He thinks they will try to go back to Indy to really do a deal as Indy has the best package on the open market. I asked if Minny does just move back, which deal do they like more, ATL or NY. He said he doesn't know but he thinks Atlanta willingness to take on money could swing the pendulum to Atlanta.

He is confident CP3 will end up either in Philly or New York and even more confident NY will get a PG in the draft, via trade or FA. This is why NY isn't hard on moving up to get Ball. They have options. I did asked what would Atlanta do if they landed #1, and he said they will likely flip it. There are some extremely attractive rentals on the open market and this might make Atlanta think about getting one of them considering where they want to go as an org without trading a core piece. No, Giannis is not available, FYI.

Oladipo has the most active market, although the value isn't great in return and he thinks this will open the flood gates for future trades. A lot of contenders and a couple pretenders want Oladipo BAD!

[Worm Guts]

Minny wants a pick swap with a top 8 team and a 2021 lightly protected 1st like Atlanta got from Dallas. I was told, no one was interested. Minny offered Atlanta the pick for a pick swap and Hunter and was quickly declined and they did the same for Kevin H and was quickly declined as Atlanta had no interest in trading anyone in their core. Atlanta did counter with Bruno and #6 and was declined. As of right now, i am told a sitting offer of 1st/James Johnson for #6 and OKC 1st 2022 is the standing offer. They tired the same with NY. Wanted Robinson/#8 for #1 and was declined. NY offered 8/27 for 1st overall as a standing offer.

I don't know if there are any protections on the pick, but the 2022 draft is the double draft and with Chris Paul potentially on the move, that pick could be interesting.

EDIT: Looks like it's top 14 protected.

[Biff Cooper]

I mentioned on the Trade Board today that while winning the lottery made it fun to speculate about millions of trades, this Wolves need to find a star. I think they will keep the pick, and take a big swing. It may be a whiff, but franchises are defined by stars, not a bunch of players who’s upside is “good role player that fits.”

You are making it out like either you take the guy who has the greatest chance of being a star or you take the guy who has the least chance of being a dud. Hopefully, there are several other options between these two extremes.

Example considering 6 players that we are considering for the top pick:
Lets say we project Player A: 45% dud, 15% average NBA player, 20% above average player, 20% NBA star
Lets say we project Player B: 20% dud, 30% average NBA player, 35% above average player, 15% NBA star
Lets say we project Player C: 1% dud, 50% average NBA player, 40% above average player, 9% NBA star
Lets say we project Player D: 10% dud, 40% average NBA player, 36% above average player, 14% NBA star
Lets say we project Player E: 25% dud, 25% average NBA player, 32% above average player, 18% NBA star
Lets say we project Player F: 15% dud, 35% average NBA player, 42% above average player, 8% NBA star
Lets say we project Player G: 5% dud, 35% average NBA player, 50% above average player, 10% NBA star

I personally would stay away from A because the dud factor is too high to risk pairing him with our current core. I'd probably also stay away from players F because the star potential isn't that high, and the dud percentage is higher than the star percentage. I'd probably also not go for C because the star percentage isn't high enough. It is a tough call on the others for me.

[shrink]

I mentioned on the Trade Board today that while winning the lottery made it fun to speculate about millions of trades, this Wolves need to find a star. I think they will keep the pick, and take a big swing. It may be a whiff, but franchises are defined by stars, not a bunch of players who’s upside is “good role player that fits.”

You are making it out like either you take the guy who has the greatest chance of being a star or you take the guy who has the least chance of being a dud. Hopefully, there are several other options between these two extremes.

Example considering 6 players that we are considering for the top pick:
Lets say we project Player A: 45% dud, 15% average NBA player, 20% above average player, 20% NBA star
Lets say we project Player B: 20% dud, 30% average NBA player, 35% above average player, 15% NBA star
Lets say we project Player C: 1% dud, 50% average NBA player, 40% above average player, 9% NBA star
Lets say we project Player D: 10% dud, 40% average NBA player, 36% above average player, 14% NBA star
Lets say we project Player E: 25% dud, 25% average NBA player, 32% above average player, 18% NBA star
Lets say we project Player F: 15% dud, 35% average NBA player, 42% above average player, 8% NBA star
Lets say we project Player G: 5% dud, 35% average NBA player, 50% above average player, 10% NBA star

I personally would stay away from A because the dud factor is too high to risk pairing him with our current core. I'd probably also stay away from players F because the star potential isn't that high, and the dud percentage is higher than the star percentage. I'd probably also not go for C because the star percentage isn't high enough. It is a tough call on the others for me.

If you want to do a breakdown of expected value, you should insert a valuation for each of those outcomes. I value them like

0 = Dud
10 = Average
20 = above Average
75 = NBA Star. (Could you trade for a star offering 3 “above average” players? 4?)

People may disagree that Star’s should be ranked so highly, but NBA stars define franchises. Above average players can be found in free agency, even in MIN, if a team wants to pay for them.

Lastly, there is nothing in my original post advocating taking the player that has the least chance of being a dud.

[Rookie-Mistake]

Really poor value for #1 out there at the moment.. it will change.. Rosas will trade the pick

Again, it's mainly to discuss, but here's NBASupes latest post on Hawksquawk:

Back:

I've been told Minny has up to 12 teams who have given them offers for 1st overall. I was told Indy was by far the most interested but was declined as they only want to move one of Turner or Sabonis and that's it. Minny would like Warren and one of them. Indy is willing to trade Warren/Oladipo but Minny wants assurance on Dipo which will not happen and Indy sees Warren as a main piece.

Minny wants a pick swap with a top 8 team and a 2021 lightly protected 1st like Atlanta got from Dallas. I was told, no one was interested. Minny offered Atlanta the pick for a pick swap and Hunter and was quickly declined and they did the same for Kevin H and was quickly declined as Atlanta had no interest in trading anyone in their core. Atlanta did counter with Bruno and #6 and was declined. As of right now, i am told a sitting offer of 1st/James Johnson for #6 and OKC 1st 2022 is the standing offer. They tired the same with NY. Wanted Robinson/#8 for #1 and was declined. NY offered 8/27 for 1st overall as a standing offer.

Most of the teams who have made a standing offer with Minny are drafting outside of the top 10 and are playoff level teams. I was told that the target of that pick varies. I was told, none of the offers are really that attractive and that Minny is hoping a team will fall in love with a prospect and move up as we get closer to the draft. He thinks they will try to go back to Indy to really do a deal as Indy has the best package on the open market. I asked if Minny does just move back, which deal do they like more, ATL or NY. He said he doesn't know but he thinks Atlanta willingness to take on money could swing the pendulum to Atlanta.

He is confident CP3 will end up either in Philly or New York and even more confident NY will get a PG in the draft, via trade or FA. This is why NY isn't hard on moving up to get Ball. They have options. I did asked what would Atlanta do if they landed #1, and he said they will likely flip it. There are some extremely attractive rentals on the open market and this might make Atlanta think about getting one of them considering where they want to go as an org without trading a core piece. No, Giannis is not available, FYI.

Oladipo has the most active market, although the value isn't great in return and he thinks this will open the flood gates for future trades. A lot of contenders and a couple pretenders want Oladipo BAD!

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6003 using RealGM mobile app

[IceManBK1]

If we're trading down..i think the hornets and hawks are good candidates...at 3 or 6 i'd take a shot at Obi Toppin. #1 to Hornets for Miles Bridges and #3. Or #1 to Hawks for Deandre Hunter and #6. Yea Toppin's defense isn't that good. but i think with his height and athleticism he'll be able to block some shots and grab some boards at least when he's not scoring. At least on offense we'll be a top 10 scoring team lol. I think he's the most NBA ready player in this draft. Could see him avg 15pts and 5rebs in his first yr. We'll be giving teams matchup problems cuz both Toppin and Towns can stretch their games to the 3 pt line. And both are excellent pick and roll, and pick and pop bigs.

[IceManBK1]

Oladipo+Turner for #1 pick and filler is a pretty good trade. but Oladipo's health worries me. Doesn't seem like he's the same player after that torn ACL. Not alot of players can come back and be the same player there were before that kind of injury.

[IceManBK1]

Still hoping we land Ben Simmons though...

[chaimer]

Oladipo+Turner is a no brainer here. Two strong defenders and both a threat from 3.

[IceManBK1]

Oladipo+Turner is a no brainer here. Two strong defenders and both a threat from 3.

solve 2 positions in 1 trade...we just need a solid 3D guy..Joe Harris maybe? Maybe Oladipo can focus on defense and let Dlo and Town be option 1A and 1B.

Dlo
Oladipo
Harris
Turner
Towns

[shangrila]

Oladipo+Turner is a no brainer here. Two strong defenders and both a threat from 3.

If you could get a guarantee that Oladipo would re-sign I'd do that deal in a heartbeat. I doubt you can though.

[IceManBK1]

Another trade down option with bulls #1, JJ, Spellman etc for Dunn, otto porter Jr and markanen. Would be great if they give us #4. If not it's alright.

Dlo
Chris Dunn
Otto Porter JR
Lauri Markanen
Towns

[IceManBK1]

As for trade down with Knicks.. Ntilikina, Mitchell Robinson, Randle and #8
Dlo
Beasly
3D guy with MLE(Joe Harris, Jae Crowder)
Randle
Towns

Ntilikina
Robinson
Instant defense off the bench lol

[Neeva]

Another trade down option with bulls #1, JJ, Spellman etc for Dunn, otto porter Jr and markanen. Would be great if they give us #4. If not it's alright.

Dlo
Chris Dunn
Otto Porter JR
Lauri Markanen
Towns

stop this is god AWFUL!

[Neeva]

Really poor value for #1 out there at the moment.. it will change.. Rosas will trade the pick

Again, it's mainly to discuss, but here's NBASupes latest post on Hawksquawk:

Back:

I've been told Minny has up to 12 teams who have given them offers for 1st overall. I was told Indy was by far the most interested but was declined as they only want to move one of Turner or Sabonis and that's it. Minny would like Warren and one of them. Indy is willing to trade Warren/Oladipo but Minny wants assurance on Dipo which will not happen and Indy sees Warren as a main piece.

Minny wants a pick swap with a top 8 team and a 2021 lightly protected 1st like Atlanta got from Dallas. I was told, no one was interested. Minny offered Atlanta the pick for a pick swap and Hunter and was quickly declined and they did the same for Kevin H and was quickly declined as Atlanta had no interest in trading anyone in their core. Atlanta did counter with Bruno and #6 and was declined. As of right now, i am told a sitting offer of 1st/James Johnson for #6 and OKC 1st 2022 is the standing offer. They tired the same with NY. Wanted Robinson/#8 for #1 and was declined. NY offered 8/27 for 1st overall as a standing offer.

Most of the teams who have made a standing offer with Minny are drafting outside of the top 10 and are playoff level teams. I was told that the target of that pick varies. I was told, none of the offers are really that attractive and that Minny is hoping a team will fall in love with a prospect and move up as we get closer to the draft. He thinks they will try to go back to Indy to really do a deal as Indy has the best package on the open market. I asked if Minny does just move back, which deal do they like more, ATL or NY. He said he doesn't know but he thinks Atlanta willingness to take on money could swing the pendulum to Atlanta.

He is confident CP3 will end up either in Philly or New York and even more confident NY will get a PG in the draft, via trade or FA. This is why NY isn't hard on moving up to get Ball. They have options. I did asked what would Atlanta do if they landed #1, and he said they will likely flip it. There are some extremely attractive rentals on the open market and this might make Atlanta think about getting one of them considering where they want to go as an org without trading a core piece. No, Giannis is not available, FYI.

Oladipo has the most active market, although the value isn't great in return and he thinks this will open the flood gates for future trades. A lot of contenders and a couple pretenders want Oladipo BAD!

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6003 using RealGM mobile app

More BS from that hawks fan, of course if they get the top pick he thinks they can flip it for something good but Minny cant...

[IceManBK1]

Another trade down option with bulls #1, JJ, Spellman etc for Dunn, otto porter Jr and markanen. Would be great if they give us #4. If not it's alright.

Dlo
Chris Dunn
Otto Porter JR
Lauri Markanen
Towns

stop this is god AWFUL!

Dunn and porter and really good defenders. Dlo needs a defensive guard like Dunn to hide him on defense. Porter's contract is bad... But he's ur definition of a 3d player. His numbers are down this year cuz he's avg less than 25 mins and less touches.

[Dewey]

Another trade down option with bulls #1, JJ, Spellman etc for Dunn, otto porter Jr and markanen. Would be great if they give us #4. If not it's alright.

Dlo
Chris Dunn
Otto Porter JR
Lauri Markanen
Towns

stop this is god AWFUL!

Dunn and porter and really good defenders. Dlo needs a defensive guard like Dunn to hide him on defense. Porter's contract is bad... But he's ur definition of a 3d player. His numbers are down this year cuz he's avg less than 25 mins and less touches.

I’d consider #1/filler <> #4/markanen/Dunn

[Dewey]

Really poor value for #1 out there at the moment.. it will change.. Rosas will trade the pick

Again, it's mainly to discuss, but here's NBASupes latest post on Hawksquawk:

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6003 using RealGM mobile app

More BS from that hawks fan, of course if they get the top pick he thinks they can flip it for something good but Minny cant...

So ... he gathered a bunch of lines off random internet rumor mills and made up his own story ... future journalist

[Chello1]

Again, it's mainly to discuss, but here's NBASupes latest post on Hawksquawk:

Back:

I've been told Minny has up to 12 teams who have given them offers for 1st overall. I was told Indy was by far the most interested but was declined as they only want to move one of Turner or Sabonis and that's it. Minny would like Warren and one of them. Indy is willing to trade Warren/Oladipo but Minny wants assurance on Dipo which will not happen and Indy sees Warren as a main piece.

Minny wants a pick swap with a top 8 team and a 2021 lightly protected 1st like Atlanta got from Dallas. I was told, no one was interested. Minny offered Atlanta the pick for a pick swap and Hunter and was quickly declined and they did the same for Kevin H and was quickly declined as Atlanta had no interest in trading anyone in their core. Atlanta did counter with Bruno and #6 and was declined. As of right now, i am told a sitting offer of 1st/James Johnson for #6 and OKC 1st 2022 is the standing offer. They tired the same with NY. Wanted Robinson/#8 for #1 and was declined. NY offered 8/27 for 1st overall as a standing offer.

Most of the teams who have made a standing offer with Minny are drafting outside of the top 10 and are playoff level teams. I was told that the target of that pick varies. I was told, none of the offers are really that attractive and that Minny is hoping a team will fall in love with a prospect and move up as we get closer to the draft. He thinks they will try to go back to Indy to really do a deal as Indy has the best package on the open market. I asked if Minny does just move back, which deal do they like more, ATL or NY. He said he doesn't know but he thinks Atlanta willingness to take on money could swing the pendulum to Atlanta.

He is confident CP3 will end up either in Philly or New York and even more confident NY will get a PG in the draft, via trade or FA. This is why NY isn't hard on moving up to get Ball. They have options. I did asked what would Atlanta do if they landed #1, and he said they will likely flip it. There are some extremely attractive rentals on the open market and this might make Atlanta think about getting one of them considering where they want to go as an org without trading a core piece. No, Giannis is not available, FYI.

Oladipo has the most active market, although the value isn't great in return and he thinks this will open the flood gates for future trades. A lot of contenders and a couple pretenders want Oladipo BAD!

There is not one bit of insider news here..... Not one bit LOL!

[Chello1]

Oladipo+Turner is a no brainer here. Two strong defenders and both a threat from 3.

If you could get a guarantee that Oladipo would re-sign I'd do that deal in a heartbeat. I doubt you can though.

Exactly correct! If no guarantee then you do not trade for Oladipo...... We have to shoot for a star. If we can find one in this draft we control them cheaply for many years. This is why you will get more for the pick then it is potentially worth. Cheap control of a great player is what teams want.