2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th: PT 2

[PlayerUp]

Lets say Isaac Okoro as an example comes into the Bulls private predraft workout and since the last time we saw him has all of a sudden developed a consistent 3PT shot, has improved handles, and has developed some really nice offensive skillsets.

Does this change your opinion on Okoro? Does he move up to the #4 spot?

The lack of march madness/numerous international prospects has really hurt our ability to evaluate these draft prospects. I'm sure the Bulls were one of the teams involved at the top pushing the NBA to have private predraft workouts. I think private predraft workouts are ultimately going to be the deciding factor on what prospect we take at #4 with the significant gap between when they last played and the draft.

[TheSuzerain]

Other than I guess shooting, you really can't evaluate an offensive skillset in a "workout" setting to the point that it would change your mind on what you saw in an actual game setting from the guy.

[PlayerUp]

Other than I guess shooting, you really can't evaluate an offensive skillset in a "workout" setting to the point that it would change your mind on what you saw in an actual game setting from the guy.

That's the big issue with almost all these top prospects though. Lack of shooting. Literally everyone at the top has questionable shooting stats.

Edwards - 29.4% 3PT
Ball - 25% 3PT
Wiseman - ???
Deni - 33.3% 3PT
Hayes - 29.4% 3PT
Okongwu - No 3PT shot
Okoro - 29% 3PT

All the good shooters are outside the Top 6 in Vassell, Terry, Haliburton, and Nesmith.

Naturally you would think predraft workouts and 1 or 2 of these prospects showing they have some improved skills offensively and an improved shot would cement them as our pick at #4.

[PlayerUp]

https://deanondraft.com/2020/09/28/how-good-is-deni-avdija/

It's hard to argue against this. The euro bust rate is actually quite high. Both Deni and Hayes could fail miserably in the NBA and no doubt the Luka hype has helped Deni as well as the unknown. I am not sold on either prospects. Hayes could be a total miss and we look back and see we passed on Haliburton who seems like a safe pick to be an quality NBA starter.

The big issue here is that at #4 naturally our mindset is we should take the BPA and this draft it maybe better to not do that. The BPA have major flaws in their games and aren't all that impressive.

NCAA prospects typically are the ones with the higher success rate and why I am more keen on drafting Haliburton, Vassell, Lewis, Terry and Okoro if he can show improvements. A trade down from #4 to #8 + Knicks Picks would be a move I would consider. Also now starting to think the bigman being Wiseman or Okongwu while we don't need more bigman may end up being the true BPA at #4.

[MrFortune3]

He has more scoring upside too.

Deni has no shake whatsoever.

"Shake" isn't the only way to score and Herro cannot do a lot of the things Deni can similar to how Deni cannot shoot the way Herro can.
Herro does not have more scoring upside, he's just the rage right now. Just like when people make the asinine comments that Herro is already a better player than Zach.

You're underestimating Herro. Herro has star mentally (not superstar) who once he becomes a more efficient could be a 20+ PPG scorer in the NBA. All it takes is Herro developing a more consistent shot which seems very duoable based on his past progress.

Deni while I think will eventually develop a decent shot in the NBA doesn't have the scoring upside Herro has. What you get with Deni is everything else from defense, playmaking and versatility.

I'm not underestimating Herro at all. I like Herro, I think he's going to be a very good NBA player.
Deni is a guy who is going to score in a variety of ways and it's going to be more about savvy than shake or sizzle.
He's going to be able to create for his teammates and that will open up shots for himself and his shooting form looks solid, some tweaks will help make him into a lethal scorer.

[ZOMG]

2020 NBA Draft rumors roundup: Minnesota still looking to trade out of No. 1

Link:
https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/10/14/2020-nba-draft-rumors-roundup-minnesota-still-looking-to-trade-out-of-no-1/

• Where the doubt comes in is with Wiseman is if he can be a star player. A few around the league say yes, but there is a lot of concern he will not be happy in his role in the league. The concern is he wants the ball, wants to face up and attack like Giannis Antetokounmpo or Anthony Davis, and Wiseman simply isn’t that good. He’s not going to be that guy at the NBA level. Would he continue to work hard in a lesser role?

This seems like my biggest concern. Who does Wiseman see himself as and what happens when he isn’t allowed to play that inefficient way?

Still worth the risk at #4, but it would be nice to go back to a world where big men wanted to play big.

It's not about "wanting" to play big. In the pros, you play the way your team's analytics people tell you to play - particulary if you're not a star/superstar. Yes, that's an oversimplification, but there's a lot of truth in it.

Big guys are taking threes because they're being told to take threes. If you can regularly make that shot, it's the best shot in basketball, and it doesn't matter what we think. Plus it's a way to combat the changed defensive rules of the NBA by creating space in the middle.

Doesn't make any sense to keep crying about "soft big men wanting to be guards" and shooting from the perimeter. That's the game now.

[Nate3carp]

Kira Lewis Jr Last 9 Games

23.2 PPG
6.7 APG
3.7 RPG
49% FG
46.3% 3PT

He's younger than Deni.
Fastest player in the draft
He could wind up the best scorer out of this draft.

Watch on YouTube

;t=373s

You can get him much later in the draft, if that is who you all like you should trade down.

Which brings me to why I am here, what would it take to get the #4 pick?

I think it completely depends on how far back we are trading (or if it’s out of the draft completely). Are you asking as a hypothetical, or as a Celts fan specifically?

[100proof]

Kira Lewis Jr Last 9 Games

23.2 PPG
6.7 APG
3.7 RPG
49% FG
46.3% 3PT

He's younger than Deni.
Fastest player in the draft
He could wind up the best scorer out of this draft.

Watch on YouTube

;t=373s

You can get him much later in the draft, if that is who you all like you should trade down.

Which brings me to why I am here, what would it take to get the #4 pick?

I think it completely depends on how far back we are trading (or if it’s out of the draft completely). Are you asking as a hypothetical, or as a Celts fan specifically?

I guess both?

I know that Kira Lewis is slotted, in most drafts, to be available at the 14th or even later spots. Most of Celtics fans have him as our pick, heck even the mock voted draft in the draft board has Kira as being the Celtics pick.


For me at least, if that is who the Bulls wanted, it would make sense to trade down, add another asset and save the money of the draft position. Its what Danny did with Tatum. Traded down, saved money, got tatum and got what turned into Romeo Langford.

I would love the Celtics to be able to grab 1 of Wiseman, Okongwu, Okoro or Haliburton as those are our needs, so to me at least, a deal between Bulls and Celtics would make sense. You all get your guy, we get ours. Question is what is the cost?

Hayward, Romeo, #14 and a future first
for
Porter, Satoransky and #4?

Past 2 seasons have Hayward and Porter a wash statistically, only that Otto has only played 56 games and Hayward has played 124 games.

Sato can give Celtics a little vet depth, Romeo give you guys more youth

Anyways just a rambling thought I guess.

[sco]

https://deanondraft.com/2020/09/28/how-good-is-deni-avdija/

Totally agree here. AK will show me a lot here as to whether he is a just a Euro-lover or a true talent evaluator.

Comparisons

Dragan Bender

Deni built most of his hype with an excellent performance for FIBA u20 in 2019, leading Israel to gold while being just 18 years old. In this regard, he is similar to Dragan Bender who had an excellent u18 performance in 2014 while being only 16.

Incidentally, they also both played for Maccabi Tel Aviv after FIBA. Bender’s PER was slightly worse in Israel (16.8 vs 17.1) and Euroleague (6.0 vs 10.5) while being 10.5 months younger. Statistically they are in the same tier, and it’s plausible that Deni flops just as hard as Bender.

Deni has a number of advantages that give him potential to be much better than Bender– better athleticism, better passing, and the possibilty of developing into a better shooter. He is likely a better prospect than Bender at the same point as he is in a more useful mold, but the parallels are strong enough to place caution on caring much about his FIBA sample which generated his hype to begin with.

Mario Hezonja

Hezonja played just 86 minutes in Euroleague when he was 2 months younger than Deni, but if we combine his ACB (just slightly softer than Euroleague) he posted 14 PER with similar assists, rebound, steal, and block rates to Deni. He also has similar dimensions at 6’8″ with 6’10” wingspan.

Hezonja scored more volume with better athleticism and much better shooting, and was hands down the better talent at the same age.

Granted, he didn’t progress to the next season posting just a 13.3 PER, and then his shooting didn’t translate to the NBA, and he has overall been a disaster.

Deni should progress better than Hezonja due to his allegedly good work ethic, but he is the inferior raw talent and there is no guarantee that he has a better NBA career.

Omri Casspi

Casspi is also a native Israeli who played for Maccabi Tel Aviv, and is physically very similar to Deni as he measured 6’9.25″ in both height and wingspan with similar athleticism.

He was 6 months older in his first Euroleague season posting 15.8 PER and then 18.6 PER the following year before getting drafted. Combining the two samples, he was approximately 1 year older on average.

Casspi showed greater ability to score inside as he had more than twice Deni’s 2PA per 40 (10.7 vs 5.1) with a slightly worse % 55.6 vs 59.6. He also got to the line much more frequently with .355 vs .191 free throw rate.

Also Casspi shot 38.2% from 3 vs 27.7% for Deni. This is an area where Deni needs to catch up to succeed longterm.

Deni’s key advantage is a much better assist rate per 40 at 3.2 vs 1.5 for Casspi. This indicates that Deni has a high IQ that can help him on both ends. Although Casspi negates some of that edge with a better steal rate with 1.5 vs 1.1 per 40.

Overall these guys feel like similar tier prospects with maybe a small edge to Casspi due to better shooting signal. Casspi was a solid return on #23 overall, but definitely not a player to target in the top 10.

Dario Saric

Saric is an inch taller at 6’10” with a similar t-rex wingspan about equal to his height.

He was 9 months older than Deni in his last pre-draft season. He posted 15.8 Eurocup PER with better rebounds, steals, blocks, and usage than Deni, and similar assist rate.

He only shot 4/13 from 3 in 10 games, but his shooting has developed nicely as a pro with 35.8% career 3 and 83.7% FT.

He is a rich man’s version of Deni in about every sense, and still the Timberwolves couldn’t wait to ship him out for the small move up from #11 to #6 overall in a crappy draft to take Jarrett Culver in order to avoid paying him as an RFA.

Deni is likely a better athlete and may have more success switching onto perimeter players than Saric, but that’s his only discernible advantage at this stage.

Boris Diaw

Diaw was 1.7 years older than Deni in his draft year, and had two seasons of Euroleague where he posted a 13.1 PER then 14.7 in a similar low usage, high assist role to Deni. He struggled shooting similarly making just 29% from 3 and 63% FT over the two years.

Diaw has better length (7′), strength, and lateral quickness, but Deni is more explosive. Overall Diaw’s physical tools seem better, and it shows in his steal and block rates as he posted 1.8 steals and 1.4 blocks per 40 compared to 1.1 steals and 0.6 blocks for Deni.

Diaw had a good career as a role player picked 21st overall. He was overall likely the slightly better prospect given his physical and steals/blocks advantages, but Deni isn’t far behind and it’s plausible he could have a similarly good career.

Diaw seems to be near the pinnacle of optimism for Deni.

Hedo Turkoglu

Hedo has been tossed around as an upside comp. It’s hard to compare because he doesn’t have any Euroleague stats on record.

Deni is young, and if he works hard *maybe* he can improve both his handle and shooting enough to maximize his passing ability in a point forward role a la Hedo.

But his handle is just so weak at this stage it seems far fetched. Especially since Hedo is an inch taller and Deni doesn’t have any clear physical advantages over him. It feels like a massive longshot, and is a shoddy comparison to justify Deni as a high lottery pick.

What is Deni specifically lacking?

Statistics aren’t everything, but most of the people who overperform statistics tend to have great physical tools. Deni has decent athleticism, but overall his physical tools aren’t that good outside of his height for a wing.

[PlayerUp]

Hayward, Romeo, #14 and a future first
for
Porter, Satoransky and #4?

Add the #26 and #30 Picks and we'll pay $ for the #47 pick? Future 1st you can make it way down the road and is it unprotected?

[cjbulls]

2020 NBA Draft rumors roundup: Minnesota still looking to trade out of No. 1

Link:
https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/10/14/2020-nba-draft-rumors-roundup-minnesota-still-looking-to-trade-out-of-no-1/

• Where the doubt comes in is with Wiseman is if he can be a star player. A few around the league say yes, but there is a lot of concern he will not be happy in his role in the league. The concern is he wants the ball, wants to face up and attack like Giannis Antetokounmpo or Anthony Davis, and Wiseman simply isn’t that good. He’s not going to be that guy at the NBA level. Would he continue to work hard in a lesser role?

This seems like my biggest concern. Who does Wiseman see himself as and what happens when he isn’t allowed to play that inefficient way?

Still worth the risk at #4, but it would be nice to go back to a world where big men wanted to play big.

It's not about "wanting" to play big. In the pros, you play the way your team's analytics people tell you to play - particulary if you're not a star/superstar. Yes, that's an oversimplification, but there's a lot of truth in it.

Big guys are taking threes because they're being told to take threes. If you can regularly make that shot, it's the best shot in basketball, and it doesn't matter what we think. Plus it's a way to combat the changed defensive rules of the NBA by creating space in the middle.

Doesn't make any sense to keep crying about "soft big men wanting to be guards" and shooting from the perimeter. That's the game now.

Nobody on the 76ers wants Joel Embiid shooting threes except for Joel Embiid. And I guess if you had Shaq now you’d tell him to start practicing his threes, right?

Wiseman’s talent is his combo of length, strength and athleticism. Those advantages are eliminated when he’s 25 feet from the hoop.

3 point shooting is important, but not for everyone. Unfortunately you’re still stuck thinking about the game in a static fashion (threes!) instead of understanding how unbalanced it is right now and where the alternative advantages can be found.

[cjbulls]

Hayward, Romeo, #14 and a future first
for
Porter, Satoransky and #4?

Add the #26 and #30 Picks and we'll pay $ for the #47 pick? Future 1st you can make it way down the road and is it unprotected?

There aren’t enough roster spots for that many picks. The last thing this team needs is 4 more rookies, all from middling to late draft slots.

[PlayerUp]

Hayward, Romeo, #14 and a future first
for
Porter, Satoransky and #4?

Add the #26 and #30 Picks and we'll pay $ for the #47 pick? Future 1st you can make it way down the road and is it unprotected?

There aren’t enough roster spots for that many picks. The last thing this team needs is 4 more rookies, all from middling to late draft slots.

You combine those picks to move up again in the draft.

#26, #30 for #20 as an example.

That's 1 extra roster spot which can be freed up by waiving Felicio.

[StunnerKO]

Watch on YouTube

[MGB8]

Deni is interesting to me as a 4, not as a 3. I don't think he can succeed as a 3 in the NBA. He's not Luka, at all. Think more along the lines of Tobias Harris.

Since the Bulls appear to be somewhat committed to at least giving Lauri one last shot to reclaim the 4 spot, with Thadeous Young as a competent 4 himself... why add another 4. Not to mention that I'm not sure that there really is a role for "power forwards" in the current NBA. It used to be that the positions were really "lead guard" / "wing" / "forward" / "big" --- but I'm not sure that right now there is any benefit to having forwards as opposed to just a good "big" and then guards and wings, with a larger wing in the "4" spot. The defensive rules make it easier to score from the perimeter, harder to score via post play....

So Deni isn't really high on my board, though I don't think he's Dragan Bender (and I think he's more athletic than Casspi, though similar, and that Casspi would be a better player in today's NBA than he was in the NBA of 5-7 years ago).

[PlayerUp]

Watch on YouTube

Should be a good role player but his ceiling seems quite low. Again picks 8-20 serve as solid role players in this league and may actually pan out better than the picks 1-8 in this draft.

[cjbulls]

Add the #26 and #30 Picks and we'll pay $ for the #47 pick? Future 1st you can make it way down the road and is it unprotected?

There aren’t enough roster spots for that many picks. The last thing this team needs is 4 more rookies, all from middling to late draft slots.

You combine those picks to move up again in the draft.

#26, #30 for #20 as an example.

That's 1 extra roster spot which can be freed up by waiving Felicio.

This isn’t the nfl draft. Trades don’t come together that easily. Boston has been trying to package picks for two years with little success.

[ZOMG]

This seems like my biggest concern. Who does Wiseman see himself as and what happens when he isn’t allowed to play that inefficient way?

Still worth the risk at #4, but it would be nice to go back to a world where big men wanted to play big.

It's not about "wanting" to play big. In the pros, you play the way your team's analytics people tell you to play - particulary if you're not a star/superstar. Yes, that's an oversimplification, but there's a lot of truth in it.

Big guys are taking threes because they're being told to take threes. If you can regularly make that shot, it's the best shot in basketball, and it doesn't matter what we think. Plus it's a way to combat the changed defensive rules of the NBA by creating space in the middle.

Doesn't make any sense to keep crying about "soft big men wanting to be guards" and shooting from the perimeter. That's the game now.

Nobody on the 76ers wants Joel Embiid shooting threes except for Joel Embiid. And I guess if you had Shaq now you’d tell him to start practicing his threes, right?

Wiseman’s talent is his combo of length, strength and athleticism. Those advantages are eliminated when he’s 25 feet from the hoop.

3 point shooting is important, but not for everyone. Unfortunately you’re still stuck thinking about the game in a static fashion (threes!) instead of understanding how unbalanced it is right now and where the alternative advantages can be found.

That's why I said "In the pros, you play the way your team's analytics people tell you to play - particulary if you're not a star/superstar".

Embiid is a star and they always get more leeway to do stupid s**t. Still, although Embiid isn't a good outside shooter, it doesn't hurt him to project at least some threat from the perimeter.

As for Shaq... that's why I said "If you can regularly make that shot, it's the best shot in basketball". And this remains true. The big guys who can shoot SHOULD be taking threes.

These days, a big who can't shoot needs to be really, really good at other things (Shaq was the most physically dominant player in the entire league). This is why players like Wendell are close to useless. He probably has the least trade value of all the Bulls who play regular minutes. The fact that quite a few Bulls fans seem to want to build around him boggles the mind.

If Carter doesn't develop a more or less dependable outside shot before his rookie deal runs out, he's in danger of being out of the league.

[Tetlak]

It's not about "wanting" to play big. In the pros, you play the way your team's analytics people tell you to play - particulary if you're not a star/superstar. Yes, that's an oversimplification, but there's a lot of truth in it.

Big guys are taking threes because they're being told to take threes. If you can regularly make that shot, it's the best shot in basketball, and it doesn't matter what we think. Plus it's a way to combat the changed defensive rules of the NBA by creating space in the middle.

Doesn't make any sense to keep crying about "soft big men wanting to be guards" and shooting from the perimeter. That's the game now.

Nobody on the 76ers wants Joel Embiid shooting threes except for Joel Embiid. And I guess if you had Shaq now you’d tell him to start practicing his threes, right?

Wiseman’s talent is his combo of length, strength and athleticism. Those advantages are eliminated when he’s 25 feet from the hoop.

3 point shooting is important, but not for everyone. Unfortunately you’re still stuck thinking about the game in a static fashion (threes!) instead of understanding how unbalanced it is right now and where the alternative advantages can be found.

That's why I said "In the pros, you play the way your team's analytics people tell you to play - particulary if you're not a star/superstar".

Embiid is a star and they always get more leeway to do stupid s**t. Still, although Embiid isn't a good outside shooter, it doesn't hurt him to project at least some threat from the perimeter.

As for Shaq... that's why I said "If you can regularly make that shot, it's the best shot in basketball". And this remains true. The big guys who can shoot SHOULD be taking threes.

These days, a big who can't shoot needs to be really, really good at other things (Shaq was the most physically dominant player in the entire league). This is why players like Wendell are close to useless. He probably has the least trade value of all the Bulls who play regular minutes. The fact that quite a few Bulls fans seem to want to build around him boggles the mind.

If Carter doesn't develop a more or less dependable outside shot before his rookie deal runs out, he's in danger of being out of the league.

The bolded is an absolutely absurd take.

Gobert, Drummond, Tristan, Whiteside all averaged over 30 mpg.

Harrell, Steven Adams, Jared Allen, Derrick Favors, Mitch, Zeller, Deandre, WCS all averaged over 20 mpg.

The list of centers who can't shoot yet played between 10-20 mpg is insanely high.

I'm not sure what you think you're watching. Wendell will not be out of the league unless he gets hounded by the injury bug constantly.

[ZOMG]

Nobody on the 76ers wants Joel Embiid shooting threes except for Joel Embiid. And I guess if you had Shaq now you’d tell him to start practicing his threes, right?

Wiseman’s talent is his combo of length, strength and athleticism. Those advantages are eliminated when he’s 25 feet from the hoop.

3 point shooting is important, but not for everyone. Unfortunately you’re still stuck thinking about the game in a static fashion (threes!) instead of understanding how unbalanced it is right now and where the alternative advantages can be found.

That's why I said "In the pros, you play the way your team's analytics people tell you to play - particulary if you're not a star/superstar".

Embiid is a star and they always get more leeway to do stupid s**t. Still, although Embiid isn't a good outside shooter, it doesn't hurt him to project at least some threat from the perimeter.

As for Shaq... that's why I said "If you can regularly make that shot, it's the best shot in basketball". And this remains true. The big guys who can shoot SHOULD be taking threes.

These days, a big who can't shoot needs to be really, really good at other things (Shaq was the most physically dominant player in the entire league). This is why players like Wendell are close to useless. He probably has the least trade value of all the Bulls who play regular minutes. The fact that quite a few Bulls fans seem to want to build around him boggles the mind.

If Carter doesn't develop a more or less dependable outside shot before his rookie deal runs out, he's in danger of being out of the league.

The bolded is an absolutely absurd take.

Gobert, Drummond, Tristan, Whiteside all averaged over 30 mpg.

Harrell, Steven Adams, Jared Allen, Derrick Favors, Mitch, Zeller, Deandre, WCS all averaged over 20 mpg.

The list of centers who can't shoot yet played between 10-20 mpg is insanely high.

I'm not sure what you think you're watching. Wendell will not be out of the league unless he gets hounded by the injury bug constantly.

You listed a whole bunch of great shotblockers, rimrunners, shotmakers and intimidators. Wendell is none of these things.

And yet some of these guys' teams still couldn't wait to get rid of them.