2020 NBA Draft Thread: Bulls pick 4th: PT 2

[cjbulls]

I understand the desire to go for wings, and that's usually the right impulse.

But the wing prospects just aren't impressive this year. Deni is a mid-1st round caliber prospect. Vassell has seemingly messed up his shot which was pretty much his only strength offensively.

If there was an actual good wing prospect this year, they'd be going in the top 3.

Okoro? To justify the pick, he probably just needs to develop a passable 3pt shot and maintain trajectory everywhere else.

[nomorezorro]

"an elite college shooter seemingly messed up his shot based on a clip of two shots in an empty gym" is a pretty good case study on the dangers of overrelying on workouts during a period when there's a dearth of new information about established prospects

[gobullschi]

I understand the desire to go for wings, and that's usually the right impulse.

But the wing prospects just aren't impressive this year. Deni is a mid-1st round caliber prospect. Vassell has seemingly messed up his shot which was pretty much his only strength offensively.

If there was an actual good wing prospect this year, they'd be going in the top 3.

Okoro? To justify the pick, he probably just needs to develop a passable 3pt shot and maintain trajectory everywhere else.

The jury is still out on his size for a wing. My eyes see a guy who is only 6’4

[TheSuzerain]

"an elite college shooter seemingly messed up his shot based on a clip of two shots in an empty gym" is a pretty good case study on the dangers of overrelying on workouts during a period when there's a dearth of new information about established prospects

Even independent of that, he's not an elite wing prospect to me. He's poor man's Mikal Bridges.

Also, Vassell is definitely not an elite college shooter. 72% Free throw shooter for his career. He's a good college shooter but certainly not elite.

[PlayerUp]

I understand the desire to go for wings, and that's usually the right impulse.

But the wing prospects just aren't impressive this year. Deni is a mid-1st round caliber prospect. Vassell has seemingly messed up his shot which was pretty much his only strength offensively.

If there was an actual good wing prospect this year, they'd be going in the top 3.

Okoro? To justify the pick, he probably just needs to develop a passable 3pt shot and maintain trajectory everywhere else.

The jury is still out on his size for a wing. My eyes see a guy who is only 6’4

6'5

[VolumePoster]

I understand the desire to go for wings, and that's usually the right impulse.

But the wing prospects just aren't impressive this year. Deni is a mid-1st round caliber prospect. Vassell has seemingly messed up his shot which was pretty much his only strength offensively.

If there was an actual good wing prospect this year, they'd be going in the top 3.

Okoro? To justify the pick, he probably just needs to develop a passable 3pt shot and maintain trajectory everywhere else.

The jury is still out on his size for a wing. My eyes see a guy who is only 6’4

Same here. Maybe 6’5 in shoes. I could deal with undersized or poor shooting, but not both. He’s a very good athlete but not elite at the nba level.

[nomorezorro]

i know ft% is in general a more reliable indicator but i'm pretty confident in the jump shooting abilities of a dude who shot 42% on threes in his career and 43% on long twos last season.

i get if people are uninterested in vassell based on lower upside but i kind of roll my eyes when you get into "ah what if he's suddenly not good at something he's good at, though?" not saying that it's impossible that his shot is shakier than it looks based on 60 college games or that changes in mechanics could negatively affect him, it's just like...at a certain point you're delving into outcomes you can't really plan for

[TheSuzerain]

i know ft% is in general a more reliable indicator but i'm pretty confident in the jump shooting abilities of a dude who shot 42% on threes in his career and 43% on long twos last season.

i get if people are uninterested in vassell based on lower upside but i kind of roll my eyes when you get into "ah what if he's suddenly not good at something he's good at, though?" not saying that it's impossible that his shot is shakier than it looks based on 60 college games or that changes in mechanics could negatively affect him, it's just like...at a certain point you're delving into outcomes you can't really plan for

You can plan for it though. That's what we're trying to do when evaluating these guys. All I'm saying is that you should use all inputs available (and not just 3pt %) when determining how good these guys are as shooters. When you do that, Vassell certainly doesn't look elite.

Don't get me wrong, Vassell has a good shooting profile (twitter video aside), but we really should reserve the "elite" label for tools that are guaranteed to translate at a high level in the NBA.

By that standard, I'd say there are 2-4 elite shooters this year

Genuine elite shooters:

1. Markus Howard
2. Sam Merrill

Arguably elite shooters:

3. Tyrell Terry - small sample size makes it arguable
4. Aaron Nesmith - small sample size and "only" 80% from the line make it arguable

[nomorezorro]

yeah that's fair

[MrFortune3]

I think that most who are high on Wiseman think his overall bust level is fairly low.
At worst you get a big who should be pretty good if not great defensively and can rebound well. If he meets his potential then you have a better version of Ayton with more potential to improve.

It's the same with Hayes, Deni, Ball and etc. Execs and fans are debating upon which guy they can get with the highest ceiling that will have the softest landing if things don't work out just right.
Basically, how to avoid drafting Anthony Bennett.

Different teams are willing to take different risks in the draft. You have to have a plan for the pieces to all fit together. That will be the primary thing I am wanting to see out of AK. How is he going to mesh everything together?
Hayes, Wiseman, Deni, Okoro, Edwards, Ball all fit in different ways and would lead to separate formulations of the team.

[TheSuzerain]

I think the big questions for Wiseman are:

What will he do significantly better than Hassan Whiteside? How will those things translate to him being more impactful than Whiteside?

[PlayerUp]

Same here. Maybe 6’5 in shoes. I could deal with undersized or poor shooting, but not both. He’s a very good athlete but not elite at the nba level.

Okoro is one of the most athletic in this draft which isn't saying much since this draft lacks athletes. Okoro size looks fine but yes if he's undersized and his offensive game during workouts hasn't improved he'll slip possibly outside the Top 10.

[PlayerUp]

I think that most who are high on Wiseman think his overall bust level is fairly low.
At worst you get a big who should be pretty good if not great defensively and can rebound well. If he meets his potential then you have a better version of Ayton with more potential to improve.

With so much uncertainly in this draft, I just can't see Wiseman falling to us at #4. All reports say he has looked terrific in his own workouts he is doing away from NBA teams which doesn't say much about how they'll fair in the NBA but his draft value is only going to rise.

Tyrese Haliburton, Onyeka Okongwu and Devin Vassell are the safe picks in this draft. All 3 should be able to contribute in the NBA and have the tools to be a NBA starter.

[Pax for Prez]

I think that most who are high on Wiseman think his overall bust level is fairly low.
At worst you get a big who should be pretty good if not great defensively and can rebound well. If he meets his potential then you have a better version of Ayton with more potential to improve.

It's the same with Hayes, Deni, Ball and etc. Execs and fans are debating upon which guy they can get with the highest ceiling that will have the softest landing if things don't work out just right.
Basically, how to avoid drafting Anthony Bennett.

Different teams are willing to take different risks in the draft. You have to have a plan for the pieces to all fit together. That will be the primary thing I am wanting to see out of AK. How is he going to mesh everything together?
Hayes, Wiseman, Deni, Okoro, Edwards, Ball all fit in different ways and would lead to separate formulations of the team.

I think Edwards and Ball are longshots to be available.

Hayes, Wiseman and Deni are the options that are most probable on being selected.

[cjbulls]

I think the big questions for Wiseman are:

What will he do significantly better than Hassan Whiteside? How will those things translate to him being more impactful than Whiteside?

Motivated Whiteside was impactful. Look at his 15-16 or 16-17 season before he got paid to get a sense of what a focused version can do.

You’re ignoring that Whitesides biggest deficiency is the mental side of the game. There aren’t those same issues expected for Wiseman.

[TheSuzerain]

I think the big questions for Wiseman are:

What will he do significantly better than Hassan Whiteside? How will those things translate to him being more impactful than Whiteside?

Motivated Whiteside was impactful. Look at his 15-16 or 16-17 season before he got paid to get a sense of what a focused version can do.

You’re ignoring that Whitesides biggest deficiency is the mental side of the game. There aren’t those same issues expected for Wiseman.

They kind of are the same issues? Wiseman has had red flags around motivation/focus for a long time now.

And even early Whiteside never looked impactful in the +/- or on/off sense.

[JohnnyTapwater]

i know ft% is in general a more reliable indicator but i'm pretty confident in the jump shooting abilities of a dude who shot 42% on threes in his career and 43% on long twos last season.

i get if people are uninterested in vassell based on lower upside but i kind of roll my eyes when you get into "ah what if he's suddenly not good at something he's good at, though?" not saying that it's impossible that his shot is shakier than it looks based on 60 college games or that changes in mechanics could negatively affect him, it's just like...at a certain point you're delving into outcomes you can't really plan for

You can plan for it though. That's what we're trying to do when evaluating these guys. All I'm saying is that you should use all inputs available (and not just 3pt %) when determining how good these guys are as shooters. When you do that, Vassell certainly doesn't look elite.

Don't get me wrong, Vassell has a good shooting profile (twitter video aside), but we really should reserve the "elite" label for tools that are guaranteed to translate at a high level in the NBA.

By that standard, I'd say there are 2-4 elite shooters this year

Genuine elite shooters:

1. Markus Howard
2. Sam Merrill

Arguably elite shooters:

3. Tyrell Terry - small sample size makes it arguable
4. Aaron Nesmith - small sample size and "only" 80% from the line make it arguable

I think Desmond Bane is an elite shooter too.

[R3AL1TY]

I'm seeing Knicks' fans proposing #4 for #8 and Knox on youtube. But with Knox numbers being worse than even Hutchinson's, I see no reason to do that trade.

[cjbulls]

I think the big questions for Wiseman are:

What will he do significantly better than Hassan Whiteside? How will those things translate to him being more impactful than Whiteside?

Motivated Whiteside was impactful. Look at his 15-16 or 16-17 season before he got paid to get a sense of what a focused version can do.

You’re ignoring that Whitesides biggest deficiency is the mental side of the game. There aren’t those same issues expected for Wiseman.

They kind of are the same issues? Wiseman has had red flags around motivation/focus for a long time now.

And even early Whiteside never looked impactful in the +/- or on/off sense.

Taken straight from his Ringer profile on Wiseman: "High-character person who works hard on and off the court. He’s intelligent, too; These are positive personality traits that could aid his development."

However, there are some different character concerns. Someone did post a recent note (I don't remember where from) that stated he wanted to be more like AD and Giannis. I agree this is a problem. This kid has been hyped as a top prospect since day 1 and will be selected very high. It's not clear how well he will take to being a rich man's DeAndre Jordan or Hassan Whiteside. That is a real issue to investigate.

As for Whiteside, he was the top Heat player on Simple Rating each of 2015-16 through 2018-19 seasons (PER vs. Opponent PER + plus/minus). And he's always been a positive plus/minus player.

http://www.82games.com/1516/1516MIA.HTM

[cjbulls]

I'm seeing Knicks' fans proposing #4 for #8 and Knox on youtube. But with Knox numbers being worse than even Hutchinson's, I see no reason to do that trade.

Reminds me of the poster who thought we could trade up using Gafford. Sometimes team fans have their blind spots.