Warriors Analyst wrote:cjmcallist wrote:To the OP -
I think Wiggins on the court is an actively negative player. The only contribution he seems to make on a per game basis is scoring - but that only happens at below average efficiency. Commodor and I had a discussion in another thread where I pulled these numbers for the 54 SFs last season. They're listed below.
He's a below average player, younger, athletic, with a low motor (read: not a hard worker). Reminded me of Jeremy Lamb. I pulled their stats. Comparable all the way down (in percentages).
Lamb signed for 10,500,000 for 3 years. He was maybe a year older than Wiggins is now? But that seems about the right value.
So, to me, in order to take Wiggins into cap space, the picks must make up for $19m, $21m, and $23m over these next three years. I have no idea what type of picks carry that value, but... ouch.
Wiggins Ranking Amongst SF
FG% = 30th
3P% = 41th
2P% = 35th
2PA = 3rd
FTA = 6th
FT% = 48th
TRB = 40th
AST = 10th
STL = 57th
TOV = 5th <where higher is worse
PTS = 5th
ORtg = 46th
DRtg = 8th < where higher is worse
NRtg = 48th
Two things stick out to me that are interesting as a Warriors fan: Wiggins' ability to get to the line and his AST ranking. Both of those numbers should increase in the Warriors system. I don't trust him to ever become more than a 37% three point shooter because of the knuckling spin on his shot, but his efficiency on 2PA% will probably jump some and he'll rack up drive and kick assists when he plays with Steph and Klay.
I recently took a lot at Wiggins' stats vs Caris LaVert's and they're quite similar to each other. LaVert's highest TS% came as a rookie when he shot 56%. Since then he's done 52%, 51%, and 51%. Wiggins career TS: 52%, 54%, 53%, 50%, 49%, and 54%. Assist numbers are pretty similar with a slight advantage for LaVert, same with 3 point shooting.
But I think it's perfectly reasonable that Wiggins could get up to league average TS% next year. He shot 51% on 2's in a small sample size, but he'll have lots more opportunities to score on cuts and with clear driving lanes. If we look at the Barnes comparison, Barnes shot 53% TS as a rookie, 49% as a sophomore and then jumped up to 57% in his first year in Kerr's system. If Wiggins gets only half of that TS% increase, a 4% jump, Wiggins is up to 58% TS. Assuming he stays more or less in line with his career counting stats, his three point shot stays the same, and the main improvement for him is higher efficiency on 2PA, Wiggins could average something like 18/5/4 on 58% TS. Definitely not worth 35$ million a year, and you won't find any Warriors fan arguing that, but not a player I feel especially compelled to use assets to dump.
So what does that player get on the open market? 18/5/4 on 58% TS? $20 million? How would other people's valuations of Wiggins change if that's what he puts up next year?
I cant see this sort of stat line when hes going to be a 3rd wheel at best behind Klay/Steph