OT: COVID-19 thread #3

[dice]

pfizer will not be asking for emergency approval on their vaccine for at bare minimum another month

and in a large international trial remdesivir did not significantly reduce deaths or hospitalizations

[PlayerUp]

China continues to be the only economy in the world to show positive growth in 2020 as its GDP is predicted to expand 1.9 percent this year, according to the latest economic outlook released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-13/World-GDP-to-drop-4-4-in-2020-IMF--UyNuoUIFlC/index.html#:~:text=China%20continues%20to%20be%20the,Fund%20(IMF)%20on%20Tuesday.

They spread the virus and they come out on top financially. Hopefully this should unite both parties as well as the world to handle all dealings with China differently moving forward not only financially but all around including the rapid global emissions (over 30% worlds emissions in 2020 per reports) they're producing. Countries like Japan are taking action by paying companies to leave China - https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/japan-helps-87-companies-to-exit-china-after-pandemic-exposed-overreliance/2020/07/21/4889abd2-cb2f-11ea-99b0-8426e26d203b_story.html and hopefully the US big giants do the same - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/05/coronavirus-apple-microsoft-google-look-to-move-production-away-from-china.html and https://www.lovemoney.com/gallerylist/98705/big-multinational-companies-moving-out-of-china. There are other countries in the world that would love to work with us that are willing to be fair and actually can provide the same services China offers for cheaper. US should partner with these countries and get companies to transition over the next couple decades.

[Dresden]

China continues to be the only economy in the world to show positive growth in 2020 as its GDP is predicted to expand 1.9 percent this year, according to the latest economic outlook released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-13/World-GDP-to-drop-4-4-in-2020-IMF--UyNuoUIFlC/index.html#:~:text=China%20continues%20to%20be%20the,Fund%20(IMF)%20on%20Tuesday.

They spread the virus and they come out on top financially. Hopefully this should unite both parties as well as the world to handle all dealings with China differently moving forward not only financially but all around including the rapid global emissions (over 30% worlds emissions in 2020 per reports) they're producing. Countries like Japan are taking action by paying companies to leave China - https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/japan-helps-87-companies-to-exit-china-after-pandemic-exposed-overreliance/2020/07/21/4889abd2-cb2f-11ea-99b0-8426e26d203b_story.html and hopefully the US big giants do the same - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/05/coronavirus-apple-microsoft-google-look-to-move-production-away-from-china.html and https://www.lovemoney.com/gallerylist/98705/big-multinational-companies-moving-out-of-china. There are other countries in the world that would love to work with us that are willing to be fair and actually can provide the same services China offers for cheaper. US should partner with these countries and get companies to transition over the next couple decades.

"China" didn't spread the virus. People who were in China and then traveled to other countries spread the virus. Has very little to do with the Chinese govt, other than they were slow to take measures to contain it. Given Trump's track record on dealing with the virus, if it had broken out in the USA, his administration would in all likelihood have also tried to minimize it, and delayed in notifying world health authorities or restricted travel.

[PlayerUp]

"China" didn't spread the virus.

There is no need to defend China. From what they're doing in Hong Kong, censorship, trade disputes globally, land seizing around them to the origin of this virus and not communicating with the world in depth on the threat, massive environmental threat and the list goes on, they are a major problem and every country should and likely will approach China completely different moving forward. They're the root cause of the worlds major issues right now.

[Dresden]

"China" didn't spread the virus.

There is no need to defend China. From what they're doing in Hong Kong, censorship, trade disputes globally, land seizing around them to the origin of this virus and not communicating with the world in depth on the threat, massive environmental threat and the list goes on, they are a major problem and every country should and likely will approach China completely different moving forward. They're the root cause of the worlds major issues right now.

There's no need to try to blame the pandemic on the Chinese govt.

As to who is the biggest culprit when it comes to environmental damage, the US has cranked out almost twice as much greenhouse gasses as China has to date. https://ourworldindata.org/contributed-most-global-co2

The US also has no moral ground to stand on when it comes to interfering with the business of other countries after we invaded Iraq on fabricated claims of WMD's and aiding Al Queda, causing an estimated 1 million excess deaths. Not to mention that little thing called the Vietnam War, which resulted in over 3 million deaths.

[dice]

"China" didn't spread the virus.

There is no need to defend China. From what they're doing in Hong Kong, censorship, trade disputes globally, land seizing around them to the origin of this virus and not communicating with the world in depth on the threat, massive environmental threat and the list goes on, they are a major problem and every country should and likely will approach China completely different moving forward. They're the root cause of the worlds major issues right now.

There's no need to try to blame the pandemic on the Chinese govt.

can't say they handled it well, but there's certainly blame to go around

As to who is the biggest culprit when it comes to environmental damage, the US has cranked out almost twice as much greenhouse gasses as China has to date. https://ourworldindata.org/contributed-most-global-co2

with a quarter of their population. we still pollute at double the per capita rate that china does. and it was the US, not china, that pulled out of the paris agreement

the US polluted a lot in building it's economy in the industrial revolution and beyond. now the effects on the planet are obvious and we're asking china to restrict their emissions just as THEIR economy is growing rapidly. they SHOULD, of course, but in a way it's grossly unfair

[Dresden]

can't say they handled it well, but there's certainly blame to go around

There's a big difference between saying China didn't handle the outbreak very well (which I'd agree with), and saying that "China spread the virus", which implies that somehow the Chinese nation deliberately infected the rest of the world (in order to get ahead economically, which seems to be the point that Playerup was making).

[Red8911]

can't say they handled it well, but there's certainly blame to go around

There's a big difference between saying China didn't handle the outbreak very well (which I'd agree with), and saying that "China spread the virus", which implies that somehow the Chinese nation deliberately infected the rest of the world (in order to get ahead economically, which seems to be the point that Playerup was making).

Maybe it wasn’t on purpose but China is still responsible for letting this spread throughout the world. Virus started there and they were keeping it a secret until it got out of hand.

[MrSparkle]

can't say they handled it well, but there's certainly blame to go around

There's a big difference between saying China didn't handle the outbreak very well (which I'd agree with), and saying that "China spread the virus", which implies that somehow the Chinese nation deliberately infected the rest of the world (in order to get ahead economically, which seems to be the point that Playerup was making).

Maybe it wasn’t on purpose but China is still responsible for letting this spread throughout the world. Virus started there and they were keeping it a secret until it got out of hand.

Yeah well- and fact is Trump Admin handled the aftermath just as irresponsibly as China handled the early outbreak. The POTUS has been caught with tape-evidence of privately admitting it was a way bigger deal than the way his PR witches let on. Whistleblowers were punished or shushed.

COVID was bound to spread like wild-fire, but you have to imagine that more Merkels governing in the Western hemisphere would've drastically reduced cases, particularly in the critical March-May stage. The world economy basically froze to accommodate Europe's and America's lock-downs, and you had the POTUS stamping around with no mask begging for businesses to be freed.

[Dresden]

..."President Trump attacked Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease specialist, as “a disaster” on Monday and said, despite experts’ warnings that the nation was headed toward another peak in the coronavirus outbreak, that people were “tired” of hearing about the virus and wanted to be left alone.

He made the remarks during a call with campaign staff that reporters listened in on. Mr. Trump’s campaign manager, Bill Stepien, began the call by talking about the Republican ground game and other factors that he said supported Mr. Trump’s path to victory.

But the president had other things on his mind. “People are tired of Covid,” he complained. “I have the biggest rallies I’ve ever had. And we have Covid. People are saying, ‘Whatever. Just leave us alone.’ They’re tired of it.”

He added, “People are tired of hearing Fauci and these idiots, all these idiots who got it wrong.”

Mr. Trump also called Dr. Fauci a “nice” guy, but he said, “He’s been here for 500 years,” and added, “Every time he goes on television, there’s always a bomb, but there’s a bigger bomb if you fire him. This guy’s a disaster.”

The attack on Dr. Fauci comes after advisers have tried to get the president to lay off the infectious diseases specialist, who remains popular. They also come after Dr. Fauci, in an interview with “60 Minutes” that aired on Sunday, dismissed the president’s claim that the end of the pandemic was just around the corner.

Dr. Fauci said during the interview that he was not surprised that Mr. Trump had contracted the virus, citing the failure to take basic precautions at White House events, including the announcement of Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination to the Supreme Court.

“I was worried that he was going to get sick when I saw him in a completely precarious situation of crowded, no separation between people, and almost nobody wearing a mask,” Dr. Fauci said. “When I saw that on TV, I said, ‘Oh my goodness. Nothing good can come out of that, that’s got to be a problem.’ And then sure enough, it turned out to be a superspreader event.”

The United States has seen more coronavirus cases — over 8 million — and more deaths — nearly 220,000 — than any other nation in the world...

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/19/us/trump-vs-biden?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

[Dresden]

I'm really afraid that we are headed towards a bad fall/winter of Covid. It's increasing in something like 38 states, and so many people are, as Trump says, "just tired of it", and are ignoring even basic precautions and just throwing caution to the wind. It could be a really bad next 4 months.

[jmajew]

I'm really afraid that we are headed towards a bad fall/winter of Covid. It's increasing in something like 38 states, and so many people are, as Trump says, "just tired of it", and are ignoring even basic precautions and just throwing caution to the wind. It could be a really bad next 4 months.

All you can do is do your part. Don't go to social gatherings or places where lots of people congregate. The biggest area where this thing is spreading is family parties. It is not from school. the train, planes, etc. It is merely from family members or friends wanting to get together. I understand wanting to get together but you need to limit your circle and have as small of gatherings as possible.

[Dez]

I just cannot fathom how that man has any supporters? It really just eliminates my faith in humanity.

[Dresden]

I'm really afraid that we are headed towards a bad fall/winter of Covid. It's increasing in something like 38 states, and so many people are, as Trump says, "just tired of it", and are ignoring even basic precautions and just throwing caution to the wind. It could be a really bad next 4 months.

All you can do is do your part. Don't go to social gatherings or places where lots of people congregate. The biggest area where this thing is spreading is family parties. It is not from school. the train, planes, etc. It is merely from family members or friends wanting to get together. I understand wanting to get together but you need to limit your circle and have as small of gatherings as possible.

Unfortunately we all pay for the ignorant actions of people like the ones that attend the Sturgis bike rally- an estimate 300-500K people mixing, often in close quarters, many not wearing masks, and then scattering to all parts of the country, brining the virus back with them. Once it's loose in a community, it puts everyone at risk.

[musiqsoulchild]

"China" didn't spread the virus.

There is no need to defend China. From what they're doing in Hong Kong, censorship, trade disputes globally, land seizing around them to the origin of this virus and not communicating with the world in depth on the threat, massive environmental threat and the list goes on, they are a major problem and every country should and likely will approach China completely different moving forward. They're the root cause of the worlds major issues right now.

They are a problem.

They are not the problem.

[jmajew]

I'm really afraid that we are headed towards a bad fall/winter of Covid. It's increasing in something like 38 states, and so many people are, as Trump says, "just tired of it", and are ignoring even basic precautions and just throwing caution to the wind. It could be a really bad next 4 months.

All you can do is do your part. Don't go to social gatherings or places where lots of people congregate. The biggest area where this thing is spreading is family parties. It is not from school. the train, planes, etc. It is merely from family members or friends wanting to get together. I understand wanting to get together but you need to limit your circle and have as small of gatherings as possible.

Unfortunately we all pay for the ignorant actions of people like the ones that attend the Sturgis bike rally- an estimate 300-500K people mixing, often in close quarters, many not wearing masks, and then scattering to all parts of the country, brining the virus back with them. Once it's loose in a community, it puts everyone at risk.

That's not entirely true. The transmission rate in March was so high it is unbelievable, over 3 and higher in places like New York City. Now we are at 1.2. I do not think it will get above 2 again, which means the exponential growth we are worried about will not happen. Especially with targeted measures for areas that are seeing growth. The fact we are testing as much as we do means we have clear visibility on where the virus is and how it is spreading. I think it is inevitable to see these spikes. Europe is much worse than us now.

You can keep yourself safe by staying home. If you are worried stay home. Order all your groceries to your house. Work remotely if possible. Those that aren't worried are doing what they want. It sucks, but we all have choices.

[Dresden]

All you can do is do your part. Don't go to social gatherings or places where lots of people congregate. The biggest area where this thing is spreading is family parties. It is not from school. the train, planes, etc. It is merely from family members or friends wanting to get together. I understand wanting to get together but you need to limit your circle and have as small of gatherings as possible.

Unfortunately we all pay for the ignorant actions of people like the ones that attend the Sturgis bike rally- an estimate 300-500K people mixing, often in close quarters, many not wearing masks, and then scattering to all parts of the country, brining the virus back with them. Once it's loose in a community, it puts everyone at risk.

That's not entirely true. The transmission rate in March was so high it is unbelievable, over 3 and higher in places like New York City. Now we are at 1.2. I do not think it will get above 2 again, which means the exponential growth we are worried about will not happen. Especially with targeted measures for areas that are seeing growth. The fact we are testing as much as we do means we have clear visibility on where the virus is and how it is spreading. I think it is inevitable to see these spikes. Europe is much worse than us now.

You can keep yourself safe by staying home. If you are worried stay home. Order all your groceries to your house. Work remotely if possible. Those that aren't worried are doing what they want. It sucks, but we all have choices.

I'm not so much worried about myself as I am about the whole country. We're still at around 700 deaths per day, and the death will soon likely start to rise, since cases are increasing in so many areas. And it will likely get worse, as people move indoors. There are some positives- treatment is getting better all the time, and many of the new infections are among young people who don't get as ill, but on the other hand, we aren't going to go into another lockdown like we did in March/April, so people will have to be vigilant as they go about their lives, and I'm afraid so many people still think wearing masks is not necessary.

[Dresden]

"The pandemic has caused nearly 300,000 deaths in the United States through early October, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a report released Tuesday. The tally includes not only deaths directly caused by the coronavirus but also nearly 100,000 fatalities that are indirectly related but would not have occurred if not for the virus.

The study is an attempt to measure excess deaths — fatalities from all causes that statistically exceed those normally occurring in a certain time period.

Many experts believe this measure tracks the pandemic’s impact more accurately than the case fatality rate. The figure includes deaths from Covid-19 that were misclassified or missed and deaths from emergencies like heart attacks that went untreated because people were afraid to go to the hospital."
...
Excess deaths among Black people and Hispanics of all age groups also rose compared with previous years, the C.D.C. reports. Hispanics experienced a 54 percent increase, while Black people saw a 33 percent rise."

By comparison, the increase for white Americans was 12 percent, according to the C.D.C.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/20/world/covid-19-coronavirus-updates?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

[Dresden]

A key model foresees approximately 171,000 more coronavirus related deaths by February 2021, a number that would represent a spike of 78 percent.

The model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine suggests there will be roughly 389,087 deaths by Feb. 1.

If all Americans use face masks, the model’s best-case scenario projects 314,000 deaths by that date. The model, however, foresees more than 477,000 deaths if mask mandates are eased.


"We expect deaths to stop declining and begin increasing in the next one to two weeks," researchers said, according to CNN. "The winter surge appears to have begun somewhat later than the surge in Europe. Daily deaths will reach over 2,000 a day in January even with many states reimposing mandates before the end of the year."

As of Thursday morning, the United States is now averaging approximately 52,345 new daily cases, an increase of 16 percent from the previous week.

An analysis of COVID-19 data from Johns Hopkins University reveals that 21 states are recording a peak of weekly averages of new cases since the onset of the pandemic, CNN reported.

The states seeing record increases in new cases include Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/521340-key-coronavirus-model-predicts-nearly-80-percent-rise-in-deaths-by-february

[Ice Man]

As of Thursday morning, the United States is now averaging approximately 52,345 new daily cases, an increase of 16 percent from the previous week.

Then 67,000 on Wednesday and 74,000 yesterday, just below the all-time high. Moving up fast. Seems pretty clear that we are on our way to 100k+ daily new cases. I mean, nothing is different than 6 months ago except that people are getting together a lot more than they were in the spring. So of course things will only be worse, from the perspective of new cases that is. We've learned some things about treatment, so the amount of deaths might remain lower than the previous peak.

The idea that this thing would just go away in a few months ... shakes head.