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Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory

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Re: Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory 

Post#1901 » by VFX » Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:51 am

tiderulz wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:
tiderulz wrote:Gobert - $26mil
Drummond - $28mil
Jokic - $29mil
Adams - $27mil


Not sure what you’re trying to point out. So outside of Love and Horford, who are considered by all to be massively overpaid, Vucevic is the only non all star Center anywhere close to those numbers. Fwiw I’m not paying Adams or Drummond that money either.

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Vuc was an all-star. its like your moving goal posts. You said there isnt another "true center" close to his salary, when there are 4 that make more than him. then you bring in some statement about non all-star, not sure why as Nik is an all-star.


Fringe, but sure.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory 

Post#1902 » by VFX » Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:57 am

zaymon wrote:The bigger the player is while retaining high skill level and mobility the hardest he is to find.
Slogan to not draft "centers" is stupid and lazy. You could also point out that low iq wings like Wiggins and Hezonja are almost always busts so maybe dont draft wings ? Center says nothing about a player these days.


No? So you think drafting Bamba over Porter, Bridges, SGA, Sexton, DiVencenzo, Huerter, Okogie, Shamet and Anfernee Simons was a good idea? I mean sure, I guess you could make an argument that there were other players that didn’t pan out, but those are few and far between. How about Bagley and Ayton over Doncic and Young?

It’s looking at patterns and not some blanket statement without specifics. Who’s discounting that bad picks are made on non-bigs? Never claimed that.

Stupid and lazy? Lol.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory 

Post#1903 » by Xatticus » Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:04 am

tiderulz wrote:
UnFadeable21 wrote:
tiderulz wrote:ehh, Vuc's salary is big but not Huge. he is owed $26mil next year. 42 players paid more. I would say huge is over $30mil, and too much unless you are transcendant is over $40mil (5 players and at least 2 of them dont deserve it)


They said it’s huge because he’s a center in todays modern space and pace game.

I like Big’s and wish teams did more post ups but I’m a 90’s basketball fan when the power forwards and centers ruled the league.

ok, but unlike say Drummond, Gobert, Valuncianas, etc, he has 3 pt range. so he isnt a detriment on offense and helps create space. Im not saying he is cheap, but i dont view it as huge, and it also decreases every year


I think they basically said he is more valuable to Orlando than to any other team in the league. He is our best player at present. So what? Good luck turning him into something useful if you decide to go in another direction.

If Boston has any interest in Vucevic, I'd be trying to use Vucevic in a deal for Hayward to try to help Boston manage its luxury tax problems. There can't be any more than a handful of teams in the whole of the NBA that would actually want the three years remaining on his deal unless it came in exchange for sunk-cost salaries. Who else might be interested? Seriously. Nobody that is trying to win has a need for a five with no positional versatility on a fat contract.

Perhaps Houston would be interested, but you'd be taking back crap and they have nothing to sweeten the deal with. Morey didn't step down because he was forced out. He stepped down because he traded in everything to try to win now and fell well short. He salted the earth in Houston. They have to get a haul for Harden or they will be in the worst situation the NBA has seen since Brooklyn traded their future for the remnants of Boston's title team.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory 

Post#1904 » by drsd » Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:43 am

MagicMatic wrote:No? So you think drafting Bamba over Porter, Bridges, SGA, Sexton, DiVencenzo, Huerter, Okogie, Shamet and Anfernee Simons was a good idea?


Drafting? Yes.

But I was a super fan of Orlando trading down to #9 of #11 - Knicks and Hornets would have traded up for Bamba or Carter, at #10 - Sixers was an unlikely trade partner.

With either of those selections, then the Magic could have drafted Gilgeous-Alexander.

But in the end this was made Moo by the Magic trading Mr. Jonathon " I am a scrub" Simmons for Fultz.
I would rather Orlando has Fultz and Bamba over Gilgeous-Alexander.

..
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory 

Post#1905 » by Xatticus » Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:46 am

pepe1991 wrote:Magic trading him will just have same salary as they have now, just spread around 2,3 worst players. It still won't change fact team has no second star. It will actually just mean team has 1 good player less.


The Magic still won't have any stars.

Vucevic isn't a star. He is probably a top-10 center?

He certainly isn't as good as Jokic, Gobert, Embiid, Adebayo, or Davis. There are many more we could have a conversation about, but I'm not really trying to **** on Vucevic.

In short, you can't build around him. Well... you can, but you get what we watch every night. You go 200-347 with 2 playoff wins in 8 years. And yes... Vucevic is a better player today than he was four years ago, but he still isn't good enough to justify his role for this team. The problem, of course, is that he is now 30 years old and our window won't even open until he is too old to be the reason that the window is opening. We should be accumulating assets that will be worth something three years from now. Can we get that in return for Vucevic? Probably not. So we are locked in purgatory until his contract winds down. He keeps us just good enough to severely hamper our likelihood of landing a franchise-altering talent in the draft. If an opportunity to get some future assets presents itself, we should jump at the opportunity.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory 

Post#1906 » by pepe1991 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:09 am

Xatticus wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:Magic trading him will just have same salary as they have now, just spread around 2,3 worst players. It still won't change fact team has no second star. It will actually just mean team has 1 good player less.


The Magic still won't have any stars.

Vucevic isn't a star. He is probably a top-10 center?

He certainly isn't as good as Jokic, Gobert, Embiid, Adebayo, or Davis. There are many more we could have a conversation about, but I'm not really trying to **** on Vucevic.

In short, you can't build around him. Well... you can, but you get what we watch every night. You go 200-347 with 2 playoff wins in 8 years. And yes... Vucevic is a better player today than he was four years ago, but he still isn't good enough to justify his role for this team. The problem, of course, is that he is now 30 years old and our window won't even open until he is too old to be the reason that the window is opening. We should be accumulating assets that will be worth something three years from now. Can we get that in return for Vucevic? Probably not. So we are locked in purgatory until his contract winds down. He keeps us just good enough to severely hamper our likelihood of landing a franchise-altering talent in the draft. If an opportunity to get some future assets presents itself, we should jump at the opportunity.


Vuc is complimentary- star. Just like half of allstars are. You can't really build winning roster around of half of "allstars".
Vuc existence never stopped anybody from emerging as star on this roster in last 8 years. it's their lack of star potential, poor drafting, no FAs, poor development.

But let's go back to "allstar " and winning basketball for a second.

Kyle Lowry- there is no evidence he can be best player on great team
Ben Simmons - eh, maybe? Never proven, spent whole career with Embiid, as player never improved pass rookie year
Middelton- pretty crappy performance once GIannis got hurt, probably can't be go to guy
Adebayo- plays behind Butler as distanced second to third option
Blake Griffin- pretty much never got anywhere as best player
Beal- 7 years in nba, never passed second round
Wall- 9 years in nba, 3 times passed first round, never passed second.
Davis - as solo star passed first round once in 7 years.
Brandon Ingram - 0 playoff games played
Devin Booker- 0 playoff games played
Karl Anthony Towns- 0 playoff games played
D'angelo Russell- never won more than 1 game in playoffs ( 5 years in nba).
Sabonis- never passed first round
Kemba Walker - never passed first round with Hornets.
Trae Young -never won 30 games. (small sample size tho)

7 nba allstars never passed first round of playoffs and 4 of them never even played single playoff game.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory 

Post#1907 » by Xatticus » Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:41 am

pepe1991 wrote:
Xatticus wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:Magic trading him will just have same salary as they have now, just spread around 2,3 worst players. It still won't change fact team has no second star. It will actually just mean team has 1 good player less.


The Magic still won't have any stars.

Vucevic isn't a star. He is probably a top-10 center?

He certainly isn't as good as Jokic, Gobert, Embiid, Adebayo, or Davis. There are many more we could have a conversation about, but I'm not really trying to **** on Vucevic.

In short, you can't build around him. Well... you can, but you get what we watch every night. You go 200-347 with 2 playoff wins in 8 years. And yes... Vucevic is a better player today than he was four years ago, but he still isn't good enough to justify his role for this team. The problem, of course, is that he is now 30 years old and our window won't even open until he is too old to be the reason that the window is opening. We should be accumulating assets that will be worth something three years from now. Can we get that in return for Vucevic? Probably not. So we are locked in purgatory until his contract winds down. He keeps us just good enough to severely hamper our likelihood of landing a franchise-altering talent in the draft. If an opportunity to get some future assets presents itself, we should jump at the opportunity.


Vuc is complimentary- star. Just like somebody like half of allstars are. You can't really build winning roster around of half of "allstars".
Vuc existence never stopped anybody from emerging as star on this roster in last 8 years. it's their lack of star potential, poor drafting, no FAs, poor development.

But let's go back to "allstar " and winning basketball for a second.

Kyle Lowry- there is no evidence he can be best player on great team
Ben Simmons - eh, maybe? Never proven, spent whole career with Embiid, as player never improved pass rookie year
Middelton- pretty crappy performance once GIannis got hurt, probably can't be go to guy
Adebayo- plays behind Butler as distanced second to third option
Blake Griffin- pretty much never got anywhere as best player
Beal- 7 years in nba, never passed second round
Wall- 9 years in nba, 3 times passed first round, never passed second.
Davis - as solo star passed first round once in 7 years.
Brandon Ingram - 0 playoff games played
Devin Booker- 0 playoff games played
Karl Anthony Towns- 0 playoff games played
D'angelo Russell- never won more than 1 game in playoffs ( 5 years in nba).
Sabonis- never passed first round
Kemba Walker - never passed first round with Hornets.
Trae Young -never won 30 games. (small sample size tho)

7 nba allstars never passed first round of playoffs and 4 of them never even played single playoff game.


And most of those guys are just much better than Vucevic. You can't be comparing a guy that is a poor defender with a .537 career TS% to guys like Simmons, Adebayo, Beal, Booker, Towns, Griffin, Davis?! etc... right? There's a developmental curve and its almost universally better to demonstrate more at a younger age. Comparing guys like Sabonis, Towns, Davis, Griffin, or Adebayo to Vucevic is absurd. Those guys were vastly superior players to Vucevic at comparable ages (as are many other guys like Brook Lopez or Ayton).

I get comparisons to guys like Kemba and Russell, but I'd never advocate for building a roster around them. Hell... age-24 Andrew Wiggins has more in common with age-24 Vucevic than almost anyone on that list. If Vucevic could develop into a positive on the floor in his peak, then surely there is hope for Wiggins? That doesn't make me want Wiggins or his contract.

And yeah... Vucevic blocks the development of anyone he can't share the floor with. He is absolutely blocking Bamba right now. He blocks Isaac as a five. I'd otherwise be perfectly fine with Vucevic playing alongside most of our other youngsters. The contract is big, but what are we going to do with that money? The problem is that we invested a high-value pick into Bamba and then pissed it away by extending Vucevic. Vucevic is a ball mover that makes good decisions. Those are traits that I wish were more pervasive on our roster. He hasn't always been that though. That's almost the entirety of what makes him useful now. He is also a pretty good rebounder and his newfound 3-point shot has also enhanced his value, but that's about it. The mid-range and post games that were the staples of his offense for years were simply padding his stats. They didn't help this team whatsoever. He also isn't a good defender. He can't protect the rim and he lacks the mobility to cover anyone outside the paint. All he can do is camp under the basket and accumulate rebounds. I guess he can lean on guys that aren't athletic enough to go over or around him.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory 

Post#1908 » by VFX » Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:32 am

drsd wrote:
MagicMatic wrote:No? So you think drafting Bamba over Porter, Bridges, SGA, Sexton, DiVencenzo, Huerter, Okogie, Shamet and Anfernee Simons was a good idea?


Drafting? Yes.

But I was a super fan of Orlando trading down to #9 of #11 - Knicks and Hornets would have traded up for Bamba or Carter, at #10 - Sixers was an unlikely trade partner.

With either of those selections, then the Magic could have drafted Gilgeous-Alexander.

But in the end this was made Moo by the Magic trading Mr. Jonathon " I am a scrub" Simmons for Fultz.
I would rather Orlando has Fultz and Bamba over Gilgeous-Alexander.

..


Kinda.

We traded Fultz for essentially Jonathan Simmons, Carsen Edwards (used to trade up for Matisse Thybulle), and the #21 pick in the 2020 draft.

We are still paying it off. That’s not to say I’m mad at the transaction.

So really it’s more complicated than Fultz + Bamba for SGA.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory 

Post#1909 » by pepe1991 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:11 pm

Xatticus wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:
Xatticus wrote:
The Magic still won't have any stars.

Vucevic isn't a star. He is probably a top-10 center?

He certainly isn't as good as Jokic, Gobert, Embiid, Adebayo, or Davis. There are many more we could have a conversation about, but I'm not really trying to **** on Vucevic.

In short, you can't build around him. Well... you can, but you get what we watch every night. You go 200-347 with 2 playoff wins in 8 years. And yes... Vucevic is a better player today than he was four years ago, but he still isn't good enough to justify his role for this team. The problem, of course, is that he is now 30 years old and our window won't even open until he is too old to be the reason that the window is opening. We should be accumulating assets that will be worth something three years from now. Can we get that in return for Vucevic? Probably not. So we are locked in purgatory until his contract winds down. He keeps us just good enough to severely hamper our likelihood of landing a franchise-altering talent in the draft. If an opportunity to get some future assets presents itself, we should jump at the opportunity.


Vuc is complimentary- star. Just like somebody like half of allstars are. You can't really build winning roster around of half of "allstars".
Vuc existence never stopped anybody from emerging as star on this roster in last 8 years. it's their lack of star potential, poor drafting, no FAs, poor development.

But let's go back to "allstar " and winning basketball for a second.

Kyle Lowry- there is no evidence he can be best player on great team
Ben Simmons - eh, maybe? Never proven, spent whole career with Embiid, as player never improved pass rookie year
Middelton- pretty crappy performance once GIannis got hurt, probably can't be go to guy
Adebayo- plays behind Butler as distanced second to third option
Blake Griffin- pretty much never got anywhere as best player
Beal- 7 years in nba, never passed second round
Wall- 9 years in nba, 3 times passed first round, never passed second.
Davis - as solo star passed first round once in 7 years.
Brandon Ingram - 0 playoff games played
Devin Booker- 0 playoff games played
Karl Anthony Towns- 0 playoff games played
D'angelo Russell- never won more than 1 game in playoffs ( 5 years in nba).
Sabonis- never passed first round
Kemba Walker - never passed first round with Hornets.
Trae Young -never won 30 games. (small sample size tho)

7 nba allstars never passed first round of playoffs and 4 of them never even played single playoff game.


And most of those guys are just much better than Vucevic. You can't be comparing a guy that is a poor defender with a .537 career TS% to guys like Simmons, Adebayo, Beal, Booker, Towns, Griffin, Davis?! etc... right? There's a developmental curve and its almost universally better to demonstrate more at a younger age. Comparing guys like Sabonis, Towns, Davis, Griffin, or Adebayo to Vucevic is absurd. Those guys were vastly superior players to Vucevic at comparable ages (as are many other guys like Brook Lopez or Ayton).

I get comparisons to guys like Kemba and Russell, but I'd never advocate for building a roster around them. Hell... age-24 Andrew Wiggins has more in common with age-24 Vucevic than almost anyone on that list. If Vucevic could develop into a positive on the floor in his peak, then surely there is hope for Wiggins? That doesn't make me want Wiggins or his contract.

And yeah... Vucevic blocks the development of anyone he can't share the floor with. He is absolutely blocking Bamba right now. He blocks Isaac as a five. I'd otherwise be perfectly fine with Vucevic playing alongside most of our other youngsters. The contract is big, but what are we going to do with that money? The problem is that we invested a high-value pick into Bamba and then pissed it away by extending Vucevic. Vucevic is a ball mover that makes good decisions. Those are traits that I wish were more pervasive on our roster. He hasn't always been that though. That's almost the entirety of what makes him useful now. He is also a pretty good rebounder and his newfound 3-point shot has also enhanced his value, but that's about it. The mid-range and post games that were the staples of his offense for years were simply padding his stats. They didn't help this team whatsoever. He also isn't a good defender. He can't protect the rim and he lacks the mobility to cover anyone outside the paint. All he can do is camp under the basket and accumulate rebounds. I guess he can lean on guys that aren't athletic enough to go over or around him.



Vučević is not bad defender, cancer named Elfrid Payton, who he was unlucky to be paired with for 4 years kept whole Magic defense down, on his own. Magic defense, along with all Vuc numbers went up in a moment Payton was shipped away.

Contribution to a team between Beal, Russell, Kemba, Griffin or Sabonis , Drummond, Wall, Cousins, Green, Derozan and others to Vučević is almost identical, difference is only situation, and who else they had or have on their team to tag along. And how Vuc is one of few nba allstar level centers without single teammate that can be considered top 10 player of his position. For whole lenght of his Magic career.

Guys like Griffin, Russell, Sabonis and Adebayo all have RPM similar or worst to Vuc and his. Towns makes whole defense worst and his teams always play better on defense without him.
People drool over Booker, and guy has RPM of -0,2 for career ( mostly due pathetic defense) on 29% usage rate, while being just 2% above league's average in efficiency.
Beal isn't even hitting TS% above league's average , while being career 27% usage rate player. ( and having worst rpm )
John Wall, perennial allstar in past, is career 51,9 TS shooter on same RPM
I didn't even mention some 2018 allstars like Draymoond Green (53% TS, similar RPM), Cousins( 53,9% TS, same RPM), Derozan ( 54% TS, 0,4 RPM), Oladipo ( 53% TS, 1,1 RPM), Drummond ( 54% TS, 1,5 RPMG)... or worst among them, D'angelo Russell , 52% TS, 0,3 rpm. For crying out loud, there was period of time people thought Jrue Holiday is elite guard, guy made allstar game on 49% TS and 0,5 RPM, but on 37 mpg and padded stats averaged 17 points and 8 assists a game ( on 34-48 team).

Vučević is NOT perfect player, but he is pretty good one, and all things considered, allstar level player. Most of allstar level players, however, are not that elite and most of the time their allstar status comes from inflated stats on not so great teams.



Vuc blocks Bamba? That is factually false. Bamba never put his body even in shape to even play 20 min per game. He is so poorly conditioned that he couldn't finish any of two seasons he played. His injury in rookie year is direc result of poor conditioning, his second year condition, allegedly covid19 connected, is also result of poor conditioning. Mo Bamba is stopping Mo Bamba from benig nba player. Nobody else.
Isaac with toothpick legs and bad knee will never play center in NBA. He is every game 1 contact away from season ending injury. That's how he ended up missing 60% of games already.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory 

Post#1910 » by UnFadeable21 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:24 pm

The Athletic

Orlando Magic Cap Situation

By Josh Robbins



Are we trying to get a big-time free agent this free agency, like DeMar DeRozan? — @MarkelleGoated

You ask an important question because the Magic need to upgrade their talent, especially on the offensive end of the floor. It sure would be nice for them to have someone who could be given the ball late in a close game and be tasked with creating a shot for himself. DeMar DeRozan did that to the Magic plenty of times during his Toronto Raptors tenure.

But I do not envision the Magic attempting to sign a big-time free agent this summer.

The issue is the Magic’s salary-cap situation.

We do not know what the salary cap and luxury tax figures will be for the upcoming season. The pandemic has caused a significant, unplanned loss of revenue that will have to be addressed by the league and the National Basketball Players Association.

But even if we assume that the 2020-21 salary-cap figure will be the same as it was this past season, $109 million, the Magic figure to have little to no money under the cap to spend on free agents.

The guaranteed 2020-21 salaries for Al-Farouq Aminu, Mo Bamba, Khem Birch, Markelle Fultz, Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac, Terrence Ross and Nikola Vucevic add up to a combined $96.0 million.

That figure does not even include the salaries of Okeke and whomever the Magic draft 15th overall next month. Also not included: the $17.2 million player option that Evan Fournier can exercise, the $2.1 million player option that James Ennis III can exercise and the cap holds for the team’s own free agents, D.J. Augustin, Michael Carter-Williams and Gary Clark.

So whatever way you look at it, the Magic almost certainly will either have no cap space at all or less cap space than the non-taxpayer mid-level exception.

Either of those two scenarios would not leave the Magic with enough money to sign a premier free agent.

DeRozan, by the way, will not necessarily become a free agent. He has a player option for the 2020-21 season that is worth $27.7 million. If I were him, I’d exercise that option and remain with the San Antonio Spurs for the season ahead.

Still, it’s funny that you mention DeRozan. He can get to the foul line, and that is a dimension the Magic lack. His 6.6 free-throw attempts per game last season would have led Orlando by a wide margin. (Aaron Gordon averaged a team-high 3.6 free-throw attempts per game in 2019-20.)

Here’s another bit of trivia for you: DeRozan has scored at least 25 points in eight of his 29 career regular-season games against Orlando, according to Basketball-Reference.

But I digress.

I will write a detailed look at the Magic’s cap situation — with fancy tables! — once there is some clarity on the league’s 2020-21 cap and tax figures.



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Re: Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory 

Post#1911 » by The Real Dalic » Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:14 pm

Do we know when FA and Trading is available yet? I'm trying to find a reason to stick around the NBA before inevitably being dissappointed in our offseason where we make no major moves outside of drafting/signing a backup that averages 15mpg.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory 

Post#1912 » by Tarheel » Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:33 pm

The Real Dalic wrote:Do we know when FA and Trading is available yet? I'm trying to find a reason to stick around the NBA before inevitably being dissappointed in our offseason where we make no major moves outside of drafting/signing a backup that averages 15mpg.


Nothing has been confirmed yet. They need to get the CBA agreed first, then set revised opt-in/out dates and the transaction window.

I imagine it will be at least a couple of weeks before the draft though, so pretty soon.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory 

Post#1913 » by MasterGMer » Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:59 pm

We are not building a team around Vuc, we are building a team with Vuc.

First before anything we do is to build a great defense. That was what GSW did with Green, Curry, Bogut and Klay.

Then we address offense.

We are on track and I do believe this offseason is critical. My bet is for us to trade with GSW
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory 

Post#1914 » by drsd » Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:28 pm

pepe1991 wrote:Vučević is not bad defender, cancer named Elfrid Payton, who he was unlucky to be paired with for 4 years kept whole Magic defense down, on his own. Magic defense, along with all Vuc numbers went up in a moment Payton was shipped away.

Contribution to a team between Beal, Russell, Kemba, Griffin or Sabonis , Drummond, Wall, Cousins, Green, Derozan and others to Vučević is almost identical, difference is only situation, and who else they had or have on their team to tag along. And how Vuc is one of few nba allstar level centers without single teammate that can be considered top 10 player of his position. For whole lenght of his Magic career.

Guys like Griffin, Russell, Sabonis and Adebayo all have RPM similar or worst to Vuc and his. Towns makes whole defense worst and his teams always play better on defense without him.
People drool over Booker, and guy has RPM of -0,2 for career ( mostly due pathetic defense) on 29% usage rate, while being just 2% above league's average in efficiency.
Beal isn't even hitting TS% above league's average , while being career 27% usage rate player. ( and having worst rpm )
John Wall, perennial allstar in past, is career 51,9 TS shooter on same RPM
I didn't even mention some 2018 allstars like Draymoond Green (53% TS, similar RPM), Cousins( 53,9% TS, same RPM), Derozan ( 54% TS, 0,4 RPM), Oladipo ( 53% TS, 1,1 RPM), Drummond ( 54% TS, 1,5 RPMG)... or worst among them, D'angelo Russell , 52% TS, 0,3 rpm. For crying out loud, there was period of time people thought Jrue Holiday is elite guard, guy made allstar game on 49% TS and 0,5 RPM, but on 37 mpg and padded stats averaged 17 points and 8 assists a game ( on 34-48 team).

Vučević is NOT perfect player, but he is pretty good one, and all things considered, allstar level player. Most of allstar level players, however, are not that elite and most of the time their allstar status comes from inflated stats on not so great teams.



Vuc blocks Bamba? That is factually false. Bamba never put his body even in shape to even play 20 min per game. He is so poorly conditioned that he couldn't finish any of two seasons he played. His injury in rookie year is direc result of poor conditioning, his second year condition, allegedly covid19 connected, is also result of poor conditioning. Mo Bamba is stopping Mo Bamba from benig nba player. Nobody else.
Isaac with toothpick legs and bad knee will never play center in NBA. He is every game 1 contact away from season ending injury. That's how he ended up missing 60% of games already.



Where is the And-2 button?


It drives me crazy when Vučević is labelled "not a good defender". He is by many metrics an above-average NBA defender. Does he fail the eye-test? Yes. But his stat line has been very good over many years on the defensive end.


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Re: Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory 

Post#1915 » by drsd » Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:34 pm

UnFadeable21 wrote:The issue is the Magic’s salary-cap situation.


With Fournier and Ennis essentially certain to opt in, this delays the Magic's FA plans till the 2021 off-season.

Currently the Magic has $76,234,967 tied up. And add to that Okeke, the #15 pick and some low-end FA pickups, that puts Orlando in the 90M range to start its market entry. The Magic could have 50-60M to splash around then. But they won't because Fultz and Isaac's contracts will need to be resolved. I would think it will be more like 15-20M in available funds for the Summer of 2021.


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Re: Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory 

Post#1916 » by RookieStar » Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:24 pm

Guys, we are sure that JI is out for the next season right? Can't we apply that injury-exception thing? That lessesn the CAP or something right?
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory 

Post#1917 » by Xatticus » Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:26 pm

drsd wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:Vučević is not bad defender, cancer named Elfrid Payton, who he was unlucky to be paired with for 4 years kept whole Magic defense down, on his own. Magic defense, along with all Vuc numbers went up in a moment Payton was shipped away.

Contribution to a team between Beal, Russell, Kemba, Griffin or Sabonis , Drummond, Wall, Cousins, Green, Derozan and others to Vučević is almost identical, difference is only situation, and who else they had or have on their team to tag along. And how Vuc is one of few nba allstar level centers without single teammate that can be considered top 10 player of his position. For whole lenght of his Magic career.

Guys like Griffin, Russell, Sabonis and Adebayo all have RPM similar or worst to Vuc and his. Towns makes whole defense worst and his teams always play better on defense without him.
People drool over Booker, and guy has RPM of -0,2 for career ( mostly due pathetic defense) on 29% usage rate, while being just 2% above league's average in efficiency.
Beal isn't even hitting TS% above league's average , while being career 27% usage rate player. ( and having worst rpm )
John Wall, perennial allstar in past, is career 51,9 TS shooter on same RPM
I didn't even mention some 2018 allstars like Draymoond Green (53% TS, similar RPM), Cousins( 53,9% TS, same RPM), Derozan ( 54% TS, 0,4 RPM), Oladipo ( 53% TS, 1,1 RPM), Drummond ( 54% TS, 1,5 RPMG)... or worst among them, D'angelo Russell , 52% TS, 0,3 rpm. For crying out loud, there was period of time people thought Jrue Holiday is elite guard, guy made allstar game on 49% TS and 0,5 RPM, but on 37 mpg and padded stats averaged 17 points and 8 assists a game ( on 34-48 team).

Vučević is NOT perfect player, but he is pretty good one, and all things considered, allstar level player. Most of allstar level players, however, are not that elite and most of the time their allstar status comes from inflated stats on not so great teams.



Vuc blocks Bamba? That is factually false. Bamba never put his body even in shape to even play 20 min per game. He is so poorly conditioned that he couldn't finish any of two seasons he played. His injury in rookie year is direc result of poor conditioning, his second year condition, allegedly covid19 connected, is also result of poor conditioning. Mo Bamba is stopping Mo Bamba from benig nba player. Nobody else.
Isaac with toothpick legs and bad knee will never play center in NBA. He is every game 1 contact away from season ending injury. That's how he ended up missing 60% of games already.



Where is the And-2 button?


It drives me crazy when Vučević is labelled "not a good defender". He is by many metrics an above-average NBA defender. Does he fail the eye-test? Yes. But his stat line has been very good over many years on the defensive end.


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Nah. He is a crappy defender. I've always put off posting about it because it would be long-winded and because I'm already labeled a Vuc hater. It just annoys me when people throw out statements that have no foundation though. I suppose there is some foundation in this case, but it's rather dubious.

Vucevic has had one season in his career where you could argue that he was an asset as a rim protector (last year). The rest of his career he has been consistently bad. There are two components to rim protection. Frequency and efficiency. His frequency is alright because he camps in the paint and sags on every pick-and-roll action. This just means that he is giving up fewer point blank shots because he never gets pulled away from the rim. His efficiency has always been bad save for last year. This means that when guys do get to the rim, he has almost no impact on their efficiency. This isn't all apples to apples, so you can really only compare bigs to bigs, but suffice it to say that Vucevic is a bad rim protector and has been for almost the entirety of his career. His DFG% is consistently around 60% (59.9% this year). That figure is around 50% for good rim protectors:

Brook Lopez: 44.1%
Robin Lopez: 44.4%
Rudy Gobert: 48.4%
Ivica Zubac: 44.8%
Hassan Whiteside: 49.5%
Porzingis: 50.5%
Anthony Davis: 49.8%

Mo Bamba: 51.2%
Jonathan Isaac: 50.6%

It probably isn't entirely fair to compare Isaac, because his role is substantially different. Bamba and Whiteside aren't great rim protectors because of their frequencies. Basically, they chase blocks and get pulled away from the rim more often. When they are in position, they alter shots. Even in Vucevic's best season (54.9%), he has never posted anything resembling what good rim protectors post on an annual basis.

Further, some of those guys are tasked with much more responsibility. Vucevic seldom defends above the elbow. He seldom switches. He seldom closes out on the perimeter. He seldom hedges. He basically just camps the paint and collects rebounds. Brook Lopez is frequently out at the 3-point line and Anthony Davis routinely switches onto ball handlers. Vucevic can't do these things. He is too slow. He doesn't get himself out of position and he is a good rebounder. That's about all you can say that is positive about him at the defensive end.

Vucevic's defensive rating while playing with Isaac: 105.3
Vucevic's defensive rating without Isaac: 110.2

Isaac's defensive rating while playing with Vucevic: 105.3
Isaac's defensive rating without Vucevic: 105.3

Which one of those two would you say is a good defender? There is a reason our defense went to **** when Isaac went down.

Blaming Payton for Vucevic's defensive deficiencies is asinine. What does a point guard have to do with your center's inability to defend the rim, specifically when it is basically all he is tasked with? Beyond that, Payton was the better player and the better defender for the bulk of the time that the two were on the roster together. There is no question that Payton's defense deteriorated and he was downright awful in his final half-season with us, but they played together for three years before that. It's ridiculous that people are still blaming Payton for other people sucking more than two-and-a-half years on from his departure.

Why did our defense seem to improve the year after he was moved then? It actually isn't better than it was in the Payton years, but our relative position has improved because league-wide offensive efficiency has improved significantly over the last five years. The reason why our relative position has improved though is simple: Steve Clifford. He shut down the transition game and emphasized defensive rebounding. We play at a slower pace. Our relative positions are right in line with where Charlotte was year upon year when he was coaching them. It's just a function of having Clifford as your coach. We weren't actually a good defense this year after Isaac got hurt though.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory 

Post#1918 » by zaymon » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:54 pm

Xatticus wrote:
drsd wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:Vučević is not bad defender, cancer named Elfrid Payton, who he was unlucky to be paired with for 4 years kept whole Magic defense down, on his own. Magic defense, along with all Vuc numbers went up in a moment Payton was shipped away.

Contribution to a team between Beal, Russell, Kemba, Griffin or Sabonis , Drummond, Wall, Cousins, Green, Derozan and others to Vučević is almost identical, difference is only situation, and who else they had or have on their team to tag along. And how Vuc is one of few nba allstar level centers without single teammate that can be considered top 10 player of his position. For whole lenght of his Magic career.

Guys like Griffin, Russell, Sabonis and Adebayo all have RPM similar or worst to Vuc and his. Towns makes whole defense worst and his teams always play better on defense without him.
People drool over Booker, and guy has RPM of -0,2 for career ( mostly due pathetic defense) on 29% usage rate, while being just 2% above league's average in efficiency.
Beal isn't even hitting TS% above league's average , while being career 27% usage rate player. ( and having worst rpm )
John Wall, perennial allstar in past, is career 51,9 TS shooter on same RPM
I didn't even mention some 2018 allstars like Draymoond Green (53% TS, similar RPM), Cousins( 53,9% TS, same RPM), Derozan ( 54% TS, 0,4 RPM), Oladipo ( 53% TS, 1,1 RPM), Drummond ( 54% TS, 1,5 RPMG)... or worst among them, D'angelo Russell , 52% TS, 0,3 rpm. For crying out loud, there was period of time people thought Jrue Holiday is elite guard, guy made allstar game on 49% TS and 0,5 RPM, but on 37 mpg and padded stats averaged 17 points and 8 assists a game ( on 34-48 team).

Vučević is NOT perfect player, but he is pretty good one, and all things considered, allstar level player. Most of allstar level players, however, are not that elite and most of the time their allstar status comes from inflated stats on not so great teams.



Vuc blocks Bamba? That is factually false. Bamba never put his body even in shape to even play 20 min per game. He is so poorly conditioned that he couldn't finish any of two seasons he played. His injury in rookie year is direc result of poor conditioning, his second year condition, allegedly covid19 connected, is also result of poor conditioning. Mo Bamba is stopping Mo Bamba from benig nba player. Nobody else.
Isaac with toothpick legs and bad knee will never play center in NBA. He is every game 1 contact away from season ending injury. That's how he ended up missing 60% of games already.



Where is the And-2 button?


It drives me crazy when Vučević is labelled "not a good defender". He is by many metrics an above-average NBA defender. Does he fail the eye-test? Yes. But his stat line has been very good over many years on the defensive end.


..

..


Nah. He is a crappy defender. I've always put off posting about it because it would be long-winded and because I'm already labeled a Vuc hater. It just annoys me when people throw out statements that have no foundation though. I suppose there is some foundation in this case, but it's rather dubious.

Vucevic has had one season in his career where you could argue that he was an asset as a rim protector (last year). The rest of his career he has been consistently bad. There are two components to rim protection. Frequency and efficiency. His frequency is alright because he camps in the paint and sags on every pick-and-roll action. This just means that he is giving up fewer point blank shots because he never gets pulled away from the rim. His efficiency has always been bad save for last year. This means that when guys do get to the rim, he has almost no impact on their efficiency. This isn't all apples to apples, so you can really only compare bigs to bigs, but suffice it to say that Vucevic is a bad rim protector and has been for almost the entirety of his career. His DFG% is consistently around 60% (59.9% this year). That figure is around 50% for good rim protectors:

Brook Lopez: 44.1%
Robin Lopez: 44.4%
Rudy Gobert: 48.4%
Ivica Zubac: 44.8%
Hassan Whiteside: 49.5%
Porzingis: 50.5%
Anthony Davis: 49.8%

Mo Bamba: 51.2%
Jonathan Isaac: 50.6%

It probably isn't entirely fair to compare Isaac, because his role is substantially different. Bamba and Whiteside aren't great rim protectors because of their frequencies. Basically, they chase blocks and get pulled away from the rim more often. When they are in position, they alter shots. Even in Vucevic's best season (54.9%), he has never posted anything resembling what good rim protectors post on an annual basis.

Further, some of those guys are tasked with much more responsibility. Vucevic seldom defends above the elbow. He seldom switches. He seldom closes out on the perimeter. He seldom hedges. He basically just camps the paint and collects rebounds. Brook Lopez is frequently out at the 3-point line and Anthony Davis routinely switches onto ball handlers. Vucevic can't do these things. He is too slow. He doesn't get himself out of position and he is a good rebounder. That's about all you can say that is positive about him at the defensive end.

Vucevic's defensive rating while playing with Isaac: 105.3
Vucevic's defensive rating without Isaac: 110.2

Isaac's defensive rating while playing with Vucevic: 105.3
Isaac's defensive rating without Vucevic: 105.3

Which one of those two would you say is a good defender? There is a reason our defense went to **** when Isaac went down.

Blaming Payton for Vucevic's defensive deficiencies is asinine. What does a point guard have to do with your center's inability to defend the rim, specifically when it is basically all he is tasked with? Beyond that, Payton was the better player and the better defender for the bulk of the time that the two were on the roster together. There is no question that Payton's defense deteriorated and he was downright awful in his final half-season with us, but they played together for three years before that. It's ridiculous that people are still blaming Payton for other people sucking more than two-and-a-half years on from his departure.

Why did our defense seem to improve the year after he was moved then? It actually isn't better than it was in the Payton years, but our relative position has improved because league-wide offensive efficiency has improved significantly over the last five years. The reason why our relative position has improved though is simple: Steve Clifford. He shut down the transition game and emphasized defensive rebounding. We play at a slower pace. Our relative positions are right in line with where Charlotte was year upon year when he was coaching them. It's just a function of having Clifford as your coach. We weren't actually a good defense this year after Isaac got hurt though.


All being said i think you didnt paint a crappy defender, just an average one. There are guys who have all the tools and dfg% at the rim, but are crappy becouse they are never at the correct position. Is Whiteside or KAT good defenders ? No, and you even said it yourself. Vucevic is a big, fairly mobile body, who is in correct place most of the time. Would you say Vucevic defense killed us against Bucks ? There were many playoffs big man with worse defensive stats than him. (while not on a raveged team)
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory 

Post#1919 » by pepe1991 » Sat Oct 24, 2020 6:47 am

Payton not having anything to do with Vuc defense is ridiculous nonsense.
Once again, Payton on Knicks ended up being one of worst guard defenders, as usaual.

Knicks wrter Drew Steele

Payton’s defense
Payton’s defense may actually be the most overrated part of his game. Sure, when he “tries,” he’s a pesky defender; however, if you’re not always trying on defense, doesn’t that make you an inherently poor defender?

We know that the catch-all stats aren’t great at measuring defense, especially in single seasons. Multi-year versions of adjusted plus-minus metrics, on the other hand, are better at measuring the impact a player has on the court. Keep in mind that “better” doesn’t necessarily mean “good,” but it does paint a more accurate picture.

My go-to defensive adjusted plus-minus stat is either three-year or five-year RAPM, because I already know the biases and flaws of the metric. It doesn’t take into account any box score priors — defensive box score stats are not good at capturing impact outside of opponent turnovers generated and defended field goal percentage differential at the rim — or reward players for being tall. It also still has collinearity issues (multiple factors affecting the same entity), so you need to be aware of lineup combinations. For example, there was a point in the 2017–18 season where Jarrett Jack had a better DRAPM than he-who-shall-not-be-named. Because Jack effectively only played with that bum that season, the numbers got screwy. That’s why you must watch the film on defense in conjunction with these metrics. They did eventually correct, for those interested.

Let’s get back on target. Payton’s three-year Defensive RAPM isn’t good.


Image

I picked three-year over five-year because I wanted to capture Payton’s more recent defensive impact. His five-year DRAPM is better than his three-year, suggesting that he has played worse on defense recently compared to earlier in his career. But the five-year figure is still not good: -1.45, ranked 759th out of 919 players.

For those curious: luck-adjusted is a method where you use a player’s average shooting percentage from the zone versus what they actually shot that game. This is a good and bad thing. The good part is that “well, that player was just on fire that game and nothing could be done about it.” The bad part is that “well, that player was on fire that game because we did nothing about it.” Without watching the film, we don’t know if the defender was the cause of the good shooting or a casualty of the good shooting. No matter how you cut it for Payton, he’s a bad defender.


Payton is painful defender who hurted every single big man and his defense who he ever played with him. Clueless, lazy, ballchashing during brodcasted on tv games, Payton is homless version of Beverly, who is poor bb player as well. Even Pelicans, with DPOY candidate every year in Davis, dipped to top 10 worst defense in same year somebody tagged along. Guessing who :lol:

Where Isaac is good defender, giving all credit for team defense for player that never plays is another laughable hot take.

Matter of fact Magic net rating was,despite team playing better defense with him, still better when he did not play. Actually, team's net rating WITH him was negative (-0,4) but (+1,5) positive when he did not play. So team did just fine without him. Mostly because isaac gives nothing to offense more often than not. ( actually more often than not he is just dead salary, but that's story for another day).

As far as defensive rating himself goes, Vuc standing on personal 109 def rating, witch is also team's def rating, still makes Magic top 10 best defense and i know it pains you that it's objective fact.
But on other side guys like Fultz and Gordon keep tanking defense as both are the worst defensive rated Orlando Magic players. You know " great defense Gordon" who never showed he is even "average joe defender".

What's most hilarious part about your post is that you went so far that you compared team that has DPOY Giannis and cherrypicked Brook Lopez and player that was second best defender last year ( actually probably best) in Davis to make a knocks about Vuc defense. So two DPOY favorites to make your point sound stronger :lol:

HOWEEEEVEEER
Defensive effective field goal percentage in pick&roll situations when bigs cover their ground shows one interesting nugget:
NIkola Vučević defended eFG% ----52%
Brook Lopez defended eFG% -------52%
Mitchell Robinson efG%-------------58% ( hello darkness, Elfrid's old friend)
Whitesdie ----------------------------60%
Anthony Davis------------------------56%

But once again, Vuc strenght isn't his average but acceptable defense, but his incredible offense. Where he wasn't most effective in his early days, last 2 years he is regular - fat BPM member, especially after averaging 28 ppg on 60% TS against league's best defense in playoffs.
His 3 point shot is respectable, his passing is one of best among big men and his feeling for a game is incredible.
Yet you are here, hating, trying to manipulate stats to fit agenda.
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Re: Official Speculation Thread '19-'20 V: Purgatory 

Post#1920 » by UnFadeable21 » Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:29 am

pepe1991 wrote:
Xatticus wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:Magic trading him will just have same salary as they have now, just spread around 2,3 worst players. It still won't change fact team has no second star. It will actually just mean team has 1 good player less.


The Magic still won't have any stars.

Vucevic isn't a star. He is probably a top-10 center?

He certainly isn't as good as Jokic, Gobert, Embiid, Adebayo, or Davis. There are many more we could have a conversation about, but I'm not really trying to **** on Vucevic.

In short, you can't build around him. Well... you can, but you get what we watch every night. You go 200-347 with 2 playoff wins in 8 years. And yes... Vucevic is a better player today than he was four years ago, but he still isn't good enough to justify his role for this team. The problem, of course, is that he is now 30 years old and our window won't even open until he is too old to be the reason that the window is opening. We should be accumulating assets that will be worth something three years from now. Can we get that in return for Vucevic? Probably not. So we are locked in purgatory until his contract winds down. He keeps us just good enough to severely hamper our likelihood of landing a franchise-altering talent in the draft. If an opportunity to get some future assets presents itself, we should jump at the opportunity.


Vuc is complimentary- star. Just like half of allstars are. You can't really build winning roster around of half of "allstars".
Vuc existence never stopped anybody from emerging as star on this roster in last 8 years. it's their lack of star potential, poor drafting, no FAs, poor development.

But let's go back to "allstar " and winning basketball for a second.

Kyle Lowry- there is no evidence he can be best player on great team
Ben Simmons - eh, maybe? Never proven, spent whole career with Embiid, as player never improved pass rookie year
Middelton- pretty crappy performance once GIannis got hurt, probably can't be go to guy
Adebayo- plays behind Butler as distanced second to third option
Blake Griffin- pretty much never got anywhere as best player
Beal- 7 years in nba, never passed second round
Wall- 9 years in nba, 3 times passed first round, never passed second.
Davis - as solo star passed first round once in 7 years.
Brandon Ingram - 0 playoff games played
Devin Booker- 0 playoff games played
Karl Anthony Towns- 0 playoff games played
D'angelo Russell- never won more than 1 game in playoffs ( 5 years in nba).
Sabonis- never passed first round
Kemba Walker - never passed first round with Hornets.
Trae Young -never won 30 games. (small sample size tho)

7 nba allstars never passed first round of playoffs and 4 of them never even played single playoff game.


This is incorrect and fake news.

Karl Anthony Towns has played in 5 playoff games, not 0 like stated.

Ben Simmons has improved, he made 1st team all nba defense this season.

Every team does need two stars. Vuc is good but he’s old and not on the timeline as Isaac and Fultz. Orlando needs to find their two max guys and build a real contending team.

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