RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 (Bill Russell)

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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#141 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:49 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:Also as we get more into KG understand I'm pushing back on the Cassell slander. Already hearing talk about his age(like every thread) and hearing him described as a KG-made all-star. But look at Cassell's impact on so many teams"

Was a key reserve on the Dream championship teams.
Was part of the best Bucks teams between Kareem and Giannis
Was on the best Clippers team in a billion years
Was on the only great Wolves team

Dude just wins. He was not just a passenger on the great KG train. KG getting out of the 1st round in Minnesota wasn't just that KG had a great year in 04. Obviously he did, but he also had great years in 02,03,05. The difference that year was Sam Cassell. Just like we don't have to trash Pippen to praise Jordan, we can praise KG without diminishing Cassell. I'm not here for it.


I'd feel a hell of a lot more warm and fuzzy about Cassell in Minnesota if in his 2nd year the team wasn't worse than they'd been before he arrived. Yes, he was part of why they went from 51 wins to 58 wins. He was also part of why they went from 58 to 44 and then had to blow that up.

In a project where pretty much everyone had access to better teammates than KG in Minnesota, it drives me a bit batty to see Cassell lionized for how much he helped KG.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#142 » by eminence » Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:53 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:Also as we get more into KG understand I'm pushing back on the Cassell slander. Already hearing talk about his age(like every thread) and hearing him described as a KG-made all-star. But look at Cassell's impact on so many teams"

Was a key reserve on the Dream championship teams.
Was part of the best Bucks teams between Kareem and Giannis
Was on the best Clippers team in a billion years
Was on the only great Wolves team

Dude just wins. He was not just a passenger on the great KG train. KG getting out of the 1st round in Minnesota wasn't just that KG had a great year in 04. Obviously he did, but he also had great years in 02,03,05. The difference that year was Sam Cassell. Just like we don't have to trash Pippen to praise Jordan, we can praise KG without diminishing Cassell. I'm not here for it.


Very small note - but there were some league factors in '04 that I think (Dallas going weird, down RS from Lakers/Spurs/Kings injuries), that I think they could've got them out of the 1st round without Cassell that season (or at least their best chance). Sam was 100% what put them into contender status (I personally am of the opinion they win it without Cassell going down).
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#143 » by Texas Chuck » Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:56 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:In a project where pretty much everyone had access to better teammates than KG in Minnesota, it drives me a bit batty to see Cassell lionized for how much he helped KG.


Huh? I'm not inducting him into the HoF here. I'm simply stating he was a really good player in this league for many years and who was a great player in 03-04. KG's career spans 2 decades and absolutely speaks for itself. But when we talk about why the 03-04 Wolves advanced a couple rounds for the only time in their history, well Sam Cassell is more than a footnote. A lot more.

Not denying the massive lift KG had in Minnesota in years where the team did not advance. And the Celtics tenure ends any question if there was some hidden fatal flaw in KG that prevented his teams from winning in the playoffs. I am not saying KG needed Sam Cassell to have huge impact. I am saying Cassell played a big part on that team and while just like KG it is his single best season, its not a huge outlier. He had other really good years for other good teams.

Edit: I wish I didn't have to mention this, but I feel like maybe I do. I know many years ago I had a reputation for being an anti-KG guy. Plus I'm definitely a Dirk and a Duncan guy the most common KG foils in discussions around here. I like to think I've been really fair to KG for a long time now, but I do understand that posts like this from me might be seen as KG criticism and that was not my intent. It really was about defending Sam.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#144 » by limbo » Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:58 pm

Mazter wrote:I certainly did not mention Latrell as a "leader". But he does have a track record as someone who made an direct impact short term, but a negative one long term. Whether it was the Warriors, the Knicks or the T'Wolves they improved instantly after he joined before going sour.


You certainly seemed to hint at it. Like i said, maybe it was just a freudian slip or something.

Sprewell was a decent player at various stages of his career. But by the time he got to Minnesota, he was past his athletic prime and his game suffered on both ends because of it (he was never a highly skilled shooter/passer or particularly smart player). There was also a reason why he was out of the league 2 years after he came to Minnesota.

Hence, citing Sprewell as someone who individually moved the needle for Minnesota in 2004 in any significant way seems more like a stretch for me. I guess he was average, which made him notably better than Kendall Gill who played over 2000 minutes for the Wolves in 2003.

The biggest improvement Minnesota had in 2004 over 2003 was actually on the defensive side of the court. Most notably getting Trenton Hassell and Fred Hoiberg from Chicago, substituting Rasho Nesterovic for Earvin Johnson and Olowokandi, who were better rim protectors, and also Cassell was a better defender than Troy Hudson fwiw.

That's where the bulk of the improvement that year came from. Not Sprewell... Sprewell was a minor upgrade over Kendall Gill, and he certainly didn't bring no 'winning mojo' with him to the team, as your post was hinting at.

In 1998 the Nets reached the play offs for the first time in 4 seasons, they would miss it the next 3 seasons.
In 2001 the Bucks made it past the 1st round for the first time in 12 seasons, they reached the Conf Finals, they wouldn't make it past the 1st round again for 17 seasons.
In 2004 the T'Wolves made it past the first round of the play offs for their only time in history, they reached the Conference Finals
In 2006 the Clippers reached the play offs for the first time in 9 seasons, they reached the 2nd round, they would miss it again for 5 seasons.


Yes... Sam Cassell was a good player. Even at the tender age of 34... Nobody is denying that.

Your argument however was that Cassell and Sprewell should be credited as the main driving forces behind Minnesota's improvement as a team from 2003 to 2004.

And while i do agree they were upgrades at their respective positions in the backcourt, the main improvement the Wolves had in 2004 compared to 2003 was seen on the defensive end.

'03 Wolves:

relative Off. rating: +2.0, relative Def. rating: +0.2

'04 Wolves

relative Off. rating: +2.5, relative Def. rating: -3.2


So the offense improved by 0.5 and the defense improved by 3.0. Care to expound on your Cassell/Sprewell theory and how it relates to what the numbers say here?

I won't go too far to add the Celtics'08 winning their only title in 34 seasons to this bunch, but all those teams had one thing in common. I'm not a firm believer of superstars carrying the load just by scoring 25, 30, 35 points or grabbing rebounds or dishing assists. There is more to it to have a "successful campaign". Now the NBA and the media has tried to make it look like the superstars automatically are the leaders, but it's not always like that. Behind the curtains there are some players or even staff members who silently might be as important as the guy filling the stat sheet and making all the head lines. I mean, in 1999/00 Cuban turned the Mavericks around (started 9-23, ended 31-19 including a forgettable 3-9 stint with Rodman) just by changing circumstances within the organisation. In a world where superstars allegedly carry teams that shouldn't have been possible. Now whether Cassell was that guy I don't know, but those are quiet an accomplishments, and I don't think it's a coincidence.


I understand the sentiment, i'm just not sure how it relates to Garnett.

It seems to me that there are some discrepancies happening in the causation/correlation relationship here. Because the Wolves largely failed to be competitive from 1998 to 2007, that must mean their best player was not a good enough leader to rally the troops to victory!

Or it could be just that Garnett had less talent on his teams than other superstars at the time? Which is what most data seems to suggest anyway.

And i'm not saying Garnett was a great leader in Minnesota. Frankly, i don't know. But whatever the case was, it seems to me the whole leadership angle is a distant tertiary reason of why his teams lacked success... So it seems weird to be so heavily focused around it. Unless you can guaranteed me some other player in NBA history could have turned around that mess into a dynasty?

Btw, if Duncan was this paragon of leadership for NBA players, then why did he win less titles and generally had less team success than Garnett did from 2008 to 2012? Where did his 'leadership' go then? Did it disappear into thin air? Or were the Spurs just not good enough as a team?

Well, eventually, there will always be something...like it always only happened to Garnett. It's easy to find excuses but in the end it's about how you deal with it as a leader. I didn't hear the Suns'00 complaining about the Conference when they dropped Duncan/DRob in the first round after previously having 4 consecutive first round beat downs.


Does it now? I thought it happened to most NBA stars? Kareem won a title in his 2nd year, and then failed to do so again in the next 8 years, including missing the Playoffs somewhere in the middle... Where did his leadership go? You can go down that list... It reads Wilt, Oscar, West, Jordan, Hakeem, Barkley, Malone, Stockton, Hakeem, Payton, Garnett, Dirk, Kidd, Nash, LeBron, Wade, Paul, Durant, Harden...

All these guys were losers far more times than they were winners in their careers... But all these guys are among the Top 50 players of all-time... So what? Only Bill Russell, 2nd-half-career Jordan and, odd-year Tim Duncan are good leaders? Everyone else always has 'something'?

Now I would take a part back that Garnett's lack of leadership, I didn't necesarrily mean he was a bad leader, but as opposed to Duncan I don't see him as a great leader either. You inspire others to help you reach your goals. And maybe it was the circumstances in Minnesota, maybe not, but all the ATG's eventually found their way to success. He also did by joining Pierce and Allen, but for me in a lesser way than the others in the top 5.


Ok, and there's nothing wrong with making that claim. But if you're keen on selling it, i expect some better evidence here. Maybe a lengthy explanation covering Garnett's leadership weaknesses, and why they failed to carry over to his time in Boston. Maybe some news clip, articles, interviews...

Without this, i can't help but just chalk your claim up to winning bias. And when the lack of team success for Minnesota in the early 00's is so demonstratively tied to lack of talent and bad front office decisions, i'll be having these things in the front of my mind more often than the ''MINNESOTA LOST, MUST BE KG'S LACK OF LEADERSHIP AS BEST PLAYER'' rationale, especially when it's not supported by anything tangible.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#145 » by trex_8063 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:16 pm

Odinn21 wrote:Edited. The first version looked like baiting even though it wasn't my intention.

Some of the pro-Garnett arguments don't make sense.

Garnett would be more valuable now due to some of his qualities being better than Duncan's? Better time of basketball history Duncan would be more valuable. How's that for a thought? We're doing a top 100 project. Not top 100 if they were playing now project.


While they may not have stated it as such, I suspect what some people are implying is that KG could do what TD does by way of being an elite "traditional" big-man defender, but is ALSO more suited to today's space & pace era. Not sure I totally agree [especially with the front portion of that statement], but that may be the assertion.

Although I could be wrong; because whether it's intentional or not, many people do tend to frame their thinking into how they'd do right now terms [recency bias]. This will become a bigger issue [imo] when we get to a player like Steph Curry.


Odinn21 wrote:(Even then, I'd doubt Garnett would be more valuable / better than Duncan.)

Also, it wasn't like Duncan was not a portable player, was it? Even his last season, Duncan was top 3 in D-RAPM and D-PIPM without his mobility.


Even as I go for Duncan in this spot [who yes, definitely IS very portable], I'm willing to concede Garnett may be even more portable, due to his athletic versatility and his greater "guard skills".



Odinn21 wrote:I'd like to see some lists like we had in the past; top 10 or 12 seasons between two players. In this case, some of the possible two player selections;
Russell vs. Garnett
Abdul-Jabbar vs. Garnett
Chamberlain vs. Garnett
Duncan vs. Garnett
O'Neal vs. Garnett

(Spoiler alert, Garnett ain't coming ahead in those.)

We could go on with
Magic vs. Garnett
Bird vs. Garnett
Olajuwon vs. Garnett

I mean, if we are going down Garnett road, why not include Nowitzki?
Nowitzki vs. Garnett

Robinson had a similar career to Garnett. Not only that, he was also at the top on +/- data like Garnett. Many similarities between them.
Robinson vs. Garnett


fwiw, I suspect Garnett would rate out ahead by this methodology against SOME of the above, whether you agree or not. He might beat one or two of them for me, actually.



Odinn21 wrote:I'd like to get an argument Garnett actually being better than those names to earn a top 5 in the history spot. By having quantifiable quality superiority.
Two things go in favour of Garnett; +/- data (which doesn't speak anything about postseason play)


J.E.'s RAPM does include the post-season. His best 10 years RAPM combined is still 2nd only to Lebron in the data-ball era.


Odinn21 wrote:and his biggest qualities being more valuable in this heavy spacing / 3 point shooting era (which is not the bigger part of the basketball history, also a hypothetical).


This isn't entirely true. You don't have to be shooting from 23' to provide a spacing effect. Bigs like Willis Reed were providing a positive spacing effect before the 3pt line. In logging all these old games, Jack Twyman in his commentary repeatedly refers to the positive effect [opening paths to the basket for others] it creates when the defensive big has to come out and defend outside the paint (he even commented about this effect during Kareem's rookie debut, with Walt Bellamy [not really even a particularly dangerous outside shooter] who was drawing Kareem out of the paint).
Honestly, as often as Jack Twyman was noticing and commenting about it circa-1970, I'm genuinely surprised it took coaches/GM's so long to actively encourage/recruit stretch bigs.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#146 » by Texas Chuck » Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:26 pm

Guess I need to not forget to vote as well--I forgot in the last thread.

1. Bill Russell -- I'm convinced his outsized impact was real, don't care one bit what a fictional Russell might do in 2020, but any reasonable assumption would be he'd an upgraded Rudy Gobert so still extremely valuable at worst. He was the GOAT Defender, leader, arguably rebounder, innovated defense that allowed the greatest dynasty in American team sports to happen and he did so over the active objections of every expert at the time.

2. Tim Duncan -- One of the best defenders of all-time despite the criticism he has shockingly taken itt about his defense. This guy was a top 5 defender the day he walked in to the league and a top 10 defender the day he walked out and spent most of the time in between as a top 3 defender including multiple years as the best defender and the team defenses he anchored were the best in the league over and over and over again. Then we have his underrated offense, his unprecedented loyalty and leadership and tone-setting. His teams did literally nothing but win and win and win and everyone associated with the Spurs gives the credit to him whereas for some reason here we credit Pop and Bruce Bowen and Boris Diaw.

3. Shaq Just an absolutely overwhelming offensive force for over a decade. Had some issues with motivation and staying in shape and getting along with Kobe, but he always showed up big in the playoffs and the entire league spend most of a decade figuring out how they were going to deal with him specifically. We talk a lot about players who changed the game, but not nearly enough about what Shaq meant. Obviously you can't replicate him so he wasn't the start of something new, but while he was in his prime, he set the tone for the entire league. Underrated longevity as well.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#147 » by Dutchball97 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:42 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:Guess I need to not forget to vote as well--I forgot in the last thread.

1. Bill Russell -- I'm convinced his outsized impact was real, don't care one bit what a fictional Russell might do in 2020, but any reasonable assumption would be he'd an upgraded Rudy Gobert so still extremely valuable at worst. He was the GOAT Defender, leader, arguably rebounder, innovated defense that allowed the greatest dynasty in American team sports to happen and he did so over the active objections of every expert at the time.

2. Tim Duncan -- One of the best defenders of all-time despite the criticism he has shockingly taken itt about his defense. This guy was a top 5 defender the day he walked in to the league and a top 10 defender the day he walked out and spent most of the time in between as a top 3 defender including multiple years as the best defender and the team defenses he anchored were the best in the league over and over and over again. Then we have his underrated offense, his unprecedented loyalty and leadership and tone-setting. His teams did literally nothing but win and win and win and everyone associated with the Spurs gives the credit to him whereas for some reason here we credit Pop and Bruce Bowen and Boris Diaw.

3. Kareem -- just so good for so long. One of the 3 truly elite offensive bigs and I think we lose sight of how good he was defensively because he hung around so long and the last thing we remember is an old man. Walked into the league as the best player in the world and over a decade later still was.


Kareem is already in as #3 so I think you'll need to pick a different third choce.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#148 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:48 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:In a project where pretty much everyone had access to better teammates than KG in Minnesota, it drives me a bit batty to see Cassell lionized for how much he helped KG.


Huh? I'm not inducting him into the HoF here. I'm simply stating he was a really good player in this league for many years and who was a great player in 03-04. KG's career spans 2 decades and absolutely speaks for itself. But when we talk about why the 03-04 Wolves advanced a couple rounds for the only time in their history, well Sam Cassell is more than a footnote. A lot more.

Not denying the massive lift KG had in Minnesota in years where the team did not advance. And the Celtics tenure ends any question if there was some hidden fatal flaw in KG that prevented his teams from winning in the playoffs. I am not saying KG needed Sam Cassell to have huge impact. I am saying Cassell played a big part on that team and while just like KG it is his single best season, its not a huge outlier. He had other really good years for other good teams.

Edit: I wish I didn't have to mention this, but I feel like maybe I do. I know many years ago I had a reputation for being an anti-KG guy. Plus I'm definitely a Dirk and a Duncan guy the most common KG foils in discussions around here. I like to think I've been really fair to KG for a long time now, but I do understand that posts like this from me might be seen as KG criticism and that was not my intent. It really was about defending Sam.


I think Cassell is getting a lot more praise in this project right now than Parker or Ginobili, and that's what weirds me out.

There have been posts along the lines of "Pfft, Garnett needed Cassell to lift him up, how impressive can he be if he needed Cassell?". And I'm sitting here thinking that if all a guy needs are 30-something Cassell & Sprewell to get to the point where he can have a contender, isn't that an impressive thing?

Cassell is of course a very good player on the larger curve of all NBA players though.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#149 » by Texas Chuck » Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:51 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
I think Cassell is getting a lot more praise in this project right now than Parker or Ginobili, and that's what weirds me out.

There have been posts along the lines of "Pfft, Garnett needed Cassell to lift him up, how impressive can he be if he needed Cassell?". And I'm sitting here thinking that if all a guy needs are 30-something Cassell & Sprewell to get to the point where he can have a contender, isn't that an impressive thing?

Cassell is of course a very good player on the larger curve of all NBA players though.


I think because people supporting Duncan aren't minimizing Manu/TP. 8-)

And I don't know who made the pfft post, but I know it wasn't me so I'm not going to wear it, sorry.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#150 » by 70sFan » Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:53 pm

limbo wrote:Why are we scaling down the development curve of natural progression/evolution to a time when basketball had significantly less talent and less sophistication in terms of knowing how the game can be played to it's highest potential?

If we scale back to a time where most people couldn't properly use a left hand and the league average FG% was .380, despite likely 80% of the shots coming inside the paint... Then sure, you could say a player like Duncan would be 'more valuable' in that setting than Garnett.

And you can say ''well, the league was in a similar state to your description for a longer period of time than the contrary''. Sure, you could look at it from that perspective. OR, you could look at it from an angle that focuses on the optimization of the game of basketball...

What does that mean? Well, if we look at the game of basketball as a problem-solving game where the goal is to find the best possible way to field lineups of players that will make your attack (offense/ability to score) more difficult to defend effectively, then we could say that the majority of the NBA timeline throughout history did a relatively poor job at maximizing their ability to do that, especially in comparison to the last decade.

In the current point of time we find ourselves in, we're far, FAR closer to figuring out the most optimal ways you could approach the game (having a bigger league with more talent naturally pushes this to forward) to maximize your ability to score points and make it more difficult for the opposing teams to defend effectively.

And sure, the introduction of the 3pt line skews this a bit in the favor of offense automatically. But i would posit that even if the 3pt line was never introduced to the game, a guy like Garnett, who had the ability to shoot 45-50% from beyond 16ft, would still provide a lot of value (especially in a league that's depleted in terms of shooting talent) on offense regardless.


I want to touch this point a bit.

It's absolutely true that coaches have more knowledge than ever, basketball is more sophisticated and the talent pool is bigger than ever. All of these things are true, but they don't necessarily caused the playstyle change.

We need to go back to the late 1950s (let's forget about pre-shotclock era for a moment) to understand how and why the game was played. Back then, teams didn't use ball dominant playmakers for number of reasons:

1. Stricter ball-handling rules.

Back then all you could do with the ball was putting hand at the top of the ball during dribbling. Refs didn't allow dribbling in a way players use it today. You may think "that's not a big deal" but then go outside for a moment and try to make crossovers, spins and behind the backs with hands only on top of the ball. It limits your freedom of movement with the ball and it reduces your potential repertoire to significant degree.

This is one of the reasons why most 1960s perimeter scorers mastered pull-up jumpshots - quick pull-up was the only safe way to make a separation. I've seen occasional step backs and it's not true that players didn't use crossovers (I hope your comment about left hand is exaggaration) but the amount of dribbling moves you could make was extremely limited.

Now compare that to what Harden, Paul or Doncic do - not only they carry the ball all the time by 1960s rules, they also combine that with very advanced footwork, which leads us to the second point...

2. Traveling violations

This one is very easy and I don't think I need to make it long - traveling used to be called much different. Things like Giannis eurostep, Harden stepback, James crab dribble didn't exist back then because they were all forbidden. Again - this all about freedom offensive player has with the ball.

Refs back then were much less willing to give offensive player advantage to pull off spectacular footwork. I've seen normal (without "gather step") eurosteps called a travel as late as in mid-80s.

What is interesting is that oldschool refs gave more freedom in triple threat position - especially in the 1950s players could change pivot foot in these situation far more often than they should have. Overall, the difference is significant and it's another reason why quicker, smaller players have much bigger advantage in 2020 compared to 1960.

3. Illegal screens

This is by far the most overlooked difference between basketball in 2020 and 50 years ago. Today players can set moving screens all game long. A lot of teams build their offense around moving screens and this often makes P&R unguardable without switching. Off-ball screens are much worse though - you can basically move with your opponent for 2 meters now.

I've seen a lot of 1970s games when defensive players flopped on screen and got whistle. Yes, stop with this stupid narrative - players flopped at least from beginning of the NBA (likely from beginning of the sport, we're not here to talk which generation is "tougher"). Simply put - as long as you're completely stationary, your screen was legal. This is not the case now and to be honest, I don't know when it started but at least 6 years ago (probably earlier).

Again - this is huge advantage for perimeter players, advantage that bigs don't have due to the nature of game.

4. Three point shooting

This one is easy - today strategies wouldn't be effective without three point line. It's that simple and without three point line, teams would play significantly different basketball. We can criticize 1980s and 1990s coached for not utilizing it enough, but there is no reason to have this against 1951-79 players. You wasn't expected to play to find open three because it didn't exist.

It's not even about shooting - good long range shooting always had value due to spacing. It's much more about how teams and coaches approach offensive possessions - today wide open three is offense's win. Back then, wide open long midrange shot wasn't efficient.

I'm not saying that 1970s basketball was optimized to the same degree as 2020, I'm sure that coaches would likely want to play differently today even without three point line. I'm also sure they'd want to play differently than they do now.

5. Inbalance in defensive and offensive fouls

Shooters are protected more than ever. This is another fact and in contrast, driving player can attack defender very agressively. Most people who start watching 1970s basketball are shocked how "soft" charges were back then, but this is how offensive foul was percieved. When defender didn't move into offensive player, you couldn't run through his spot. Today, it's much harder to draw offensive foul.

I don't think handchecking changed nearly as much as some believe (especially not 1980d and 1990s handchecking which were already significantly reduced by the rule changes) but it's also true that perimeter players could be touched by defenders on perimeter.

6. Defensive three second

This was always NBA concern - how to disallow zones. The truth is that before illegal defense era, teams could play zones freely becaude there wasn't any concrete rule that disallowed it. This is another disadvantage for perimeter players, because without three seconds bigs could close driving lanes.

Of course it was never that easy and bigs didn't camp inside all the time, but we also have to consider that. In 2020 teams can't play real zones because of defensive three second - one of the worst rules in NBA basketball (thanks God we don't have that in Europe).



When you consider all of these things, you should realize that the playstyle change was influenced in part by natural development but also in big part of the path NBA decided to go. A lot of things would be different without these significant changes in rules and officiating.

So before saying that KG is better suited to evolved version of basketball, keep in mind that this verison of basketball was impossible in Kareem's prime. People also have to remember that evolution doesn't mean progression.

I hope that this post won't be seen as another biased nonsense from 70sFan, because this time I don't think I say subjective things. I also want people to keep everything I said in mind, this response isn't directed strictly to limbo.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#151 » by LA Bird » Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:55 pm

DQuinn1575 wrote:You say a player shouldn’t be penalized for winning or losing, but that is not really a wideheld view. The top x players here will all have won a championship, and that number will be more than 12.

To be accurate, I said a player shouldn't be penalized/rewarded for factors outside of their control. If their performance directly led to their team winning or losing, that should absolutely matter. 2011 LeBron is a lot worse than 2018 LeBron for example even if the end result was the same.

You make some good points, but I don’t see who you voted for. Can you please share?

I haven't voted but if I did, it would be Duncan, Shaq, Russell.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#152 » by 70sFan » Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:58 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
Odinn21 wrote:and his biggest qualities being more valuable in this heavy spacing / 3 point shooting era (which is not the bigger part of the basketball history, also a hypothetical).


This isn't entirely true. You don't have to be shooting from 23' to provide a spacing effect. Bigs like Willis Reed were providing a positive spacing effect before the 3pt line. In logging all these old games, Jack Twyman in his commentary repeatedly refers to the positive effect [opening paths to the basket for others] it creates when the defensive big has to come out and defend outside the paint (he even commented about this effect during Kareem's rookie debut, with Walt Bellamy [not really even a particularly dangerous outside shooter] who was drawing Kareem out of the paint).
Honestly, as often as Jack Twyman was noticing and commenting about it circa-1970, I'm genuinely surprised it took coaches/GM's so long to actively encourage/recruit stretch bigs.

Hannum understood that and he went for Clyde Lovellette to was supposed to draw Russell out of the paint. Clyde was a real threat from outside unlike Bellamy, but even as good shooter as him couldn't produce the same threat without three point line.

I agree though - shooting always had significant impact in basketball. Three point line only amplified that.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#153 » by Jordan Syndrome » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:01 pm

Odinn21 wrote:Russell vs. Garnett
Abdul-Jabbar vs. Garnett
Chamberlain vs. Garnett
Duncan vs. Garnett
O'Neal vs. Garnett


Garnett vs Russell
04 Garnett
03 Garnett
65 Russell
64 Russell
02 Garnett
62 Russell
08 Garnett
66 Russell
01 Garnett
00 Garnett
60 Russell
61 Russell

Garnett vs Kareem
04 Garnett
03 Garnett
77 Kareem
02 Garnett
08 Garnett
72 Kareem
71 Kareem
01 Garnett
00 Garnett
74 Kareem
80 Kareem


Chamberlain vs Garnett
04 Garnett
03 Garnett
67 Chamberlain
02 Garnett
68 Chamberlain
08 Garnett
64 Chamberlain
66 Chamberlain
01 Garnett
00 Garnett
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#154 » by Dutchball97 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:05 pm

Jordan Syndrome wrote:
Odinn21 wrote:Russell vs. Garnett
Abdul-Jabbar vs. Garnett
Chamberlain vs. Garnett
Duncan vs. Garnett
O'Neal vs. Garnett


Garnett vs Russell
04 Garnett
03 Garnett
65 Russell
64 Russell
02 Garnett
62 Russell
08 Garnett
66 Russell
01 Garnett
00 Garnett
60 Russell
61 Russell

Garnett vs Kareem
04 Garnett
03 Garnett
77 Kareem
02 Garnett
08 Garnett
72 Kareem
71 Kareem
01 Garnett
00 Garnett
74 Kareem
80 Kareem


Chamberlain vs Garnett
04 Garnett
03 Garnett
67 Chamberlain
02 Garnett
68 Chamberlain
08 Garnett
64 Chamberlain
66 Chamberlain
01 Garnett
00 Garnett


04 Garnett being better than 65 Russell, 67 Wilt and 77 Kareem seems unlikely to me but you even have his 03 season over all of their best seasons?
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#155 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:08 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
I think Cassell is getting a lot more praise in this project right now than Parker or Ginobili, and that's what weirds me out.

There have been posts along the lines of "Pfft, Garnett needed Cassell to lift him up, how impressive can he be if he needed Cassell?". And I'm sitting here thinking that if all a guy needs are 30-something Cassell & Sprewell to get to the point where he can have a contender, isn't that an impressive thing?

Cassell is of course a very good player on the larger curve of all NBA players though.


I think because people supporting Duncan aren't minimizing Manu/TP. 8-)

And I don't know who made the pfft post, but I know it wasn't me so I'm not going to wear it, sorry.


Here's the quote that touched the 3rd rail for me (leaving out the poster's name though obviously he can speak to it further if he wants and y'all can look up who it was if they want.

The fact that Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewel had to come along to finally lift the T'Wolves to a good enough record and past the first round is telling.


I wasn't talking about Cassell or Sprewell before this.

I do understand that threads are naturally palimpsestic (painting on top of the layer that came before) so just as I feel a need to say "Whoa, you're counting those guys against KG?" others are going to have an impulse to say "Hey, Cassell wasn't a bad player!"
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#156 » by Jordan Syndrome » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:09 pm

Dutchball97 wrote:
Jordan Syndrome wrote:
Odinn21 wrote:Russell vs. Garnett
Abdul-Jabbar vs. Garnett
Chamberlain vs. Garnett
Duncan vs. Garnett
O'Neal vs. Garnett


Garnett vs Russell
04 Garnett
03 Garnett
65 Russell
64 Russell
02 Garnett
62 Russell
08 Garnett
66 Russell
01 Garnett
00 Garnett
60 Russell
61 Russell

Garnett vs Kareem
04 Garnett
03 Garnett
77 Kareem
02 Garnett
08 Garnett
72 Kareem
71 Kareem
01 Garnett
00 Garnett
74 Kareem
80 Kareem


Chamberlain vs Garnett
04 Garnett
03 Garnett
67 Chamberlain
02 Garnett
68 Chamberlain
08 Garnett
64 Chamberlain
66 Chamberlain
01 Garnett
00 Garnett


04 Garnett being better than 65 Russell, 67 Wilt and 77 Kareem seems unlikely to me but you even have his 03 season over all of their best seasons?


I see little to no difference between 03 KG and 04 KG.

04 KG proved that he can fit seamlessly with on-ball talent (Cassell being the first true, All-star level talent he ever played with in his career) and was able to create a title contender with no previous experience next to the player.
I have no reason to think Garnett couldn't do the same in 2003.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#157 » by LA Bird » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:11 pm

trex_8063 wrote:As there's been some on-going discussion regarding the relative dominance of Russell teams vs Duncan teams, one poster cautioning against cherry-picking ONLY the defensive dominance; and 70sFan has cautioned against using raw SRS across eras.......I decided to make a scaled SRS model (based on year-to-year standard deviation); I can try to do the same with net rating soon, though it should read much the same, I would think.

Anyway, below are the top 20 [rs] scaled SRS seasons between Russell/Duncan, in order (scaled SRS value in parentheses); the difference is sometimes in the 3rd decimal place. I'll let you all decide how you feel about the era in which they occur....

1. '57 Celtics (+9.771)
2. '07 Spurs (+9.767)
3. '16 Spurs (+9.247)
4. '65 Celtics (+8.752)
5. '05 Spurs (+8.584)
6. '62 Celtics (+8.275)
7. '04 Spurs (+8.258)
8. '06 Spurs (+7.955)
9. '01 Spurs (+7.914)
10. '60 Celtics (+7.849)
11. '14 Spurs (+7.402)
12. '63 Celtics (+7.321)
13. '99 Spurs (+7.269)
14. '58 Celtics (+7.207)
15. '67 Celtics (+6.845)
16. '02 Spurs (+6.797)
17. '12 Spurs (+6.783)
18. '61 Celtics (+6.751)
19. '64 Celtics (+6.611)
20. '13 Spurs (+6.550)


So a Russell Celtics team holds the top spot, though barely (and it's from the 50's), but a Tim Duncan team holds 11 of the top 20 (and 6 of the top 9).
Given the "Cousy left, and the Celtics got better" rhetoric is something that is frequently tossed around here, imo it's an interesting finding that SIX of the nine Russell teams that appear in this top 20 [including the best one, and 5 of their top 6] were teams from when Cousy was still around ('59 is the ONLY Cousy year that does not appear here). That was an unexpected finding.

There was an old blog on BBR which did a similar z score analysis for SRS and other team metrics up until 2010. I am not sure how you calculated your scaled scores but the numbers and the team orders seem to be slightly different to theirs:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/indexd428.html?p=4723
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#158 » by limbo » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:17 pm

Jordan Syndrome wrote:I see little to no difference between 03 KG and 04 KG.


Do you see a lot of difference between 03 KG and 04 KG in comparison to 05 KG and 06 KG? Because i don't. So if someone sees 04 KG as one of the best peaks ever, you would kind of need to put his 03, 05, 06 seasons in the same tier, because he was essentially the same type of player with the same type of style and production with very marginal fluctuations in scoring/passing volume and efficiency.

While keeping in mind that 04 KG had the best circumstances to maximize his ability based on the talent level of his supporting cast.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#159 » by DQuinn1575 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:18 pm

LA Bird wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:As there's been some on-going discussion regarding the relative dominance of Russell teams vs Duncan teams, one poster cautioning against cherry-picking ONLY the defensive dominance; and 70sFan has cautioned against using raw SRS across eras.......I decided to make a scaled SRS model (based on year-to-year standard deviation); I can try to do the same with net rating soon, though it should read much the same, I would think.

Anyway, below are the top 20 [rs] scaled SRS seasons between Russell/Duncan, in order (scaled SRS value in parentheses); the difference is sometimes in the 3rd decimal place. I'll let you all decide how you feel about the era in which they occur....

1. '57 Celtics (+9.771)
2. '07 Spurs (+9.767)
3. '16 Spurs (+9.247)
4. '65 Celtics (+8.752)
5. '05 Spurs (+8.584)
6. '62 Celtics (+8.275)
7. '04 Spurs (+8.258)
8. '06 Spurs (+7.955)
9. '01 Spurs (+7.914)
10. '60 Celtics (+7.849)
11. '14 Spurs (+7.402)
12. '63 Celtics (+7.321)
13. '99 Spurs (+7.269)
14. '58 Celtics (+7.207)
15. '67 Celtics (+6.845)
16. '02 Spurs (+6.797)
17. '12 Spurs (+6.783)
18. '61 Celtics (+6.751)
19. '64 Celtics (+6.611)
20. '13 Spurs (+6.550)


So a Russell Celtics team holds the top spot, though barely (and it's from the 50's), but a Tim Duncan team holds 11 of the top 20 (and 6 of the top 9).
Given the "Cousy left, and the Celtics got better" rhetoric is something that is frequently tossed around here, imo it's an interesting finding that SIX of the nine Russell teams that appear in this top 20 [including the best one, and 5 of their top 6] were teams from when Cousy was still around ('59 is the ONLY Cousy year that does not appear here). That was an unexpected finding.

There was an old blog on BBR which did a similar z score analysis for SRS and other team metrics up until 2010. I am not sure how you calculated your scaled scores but the numbers and the team orders seem to be slightly different to theirs:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/indexd428.html?p=4723


1. Not sure what the point being made is - if you are comparing a team to the top couple of teams in the league - like how dominant they are against the top teams then Z score makes sense. If you are comparing how good they are to the average, then straight SRS should be used.

2. Also, past the first championship for either team, they didnt care about the regular season, and success for the season was winning the title, even at the cost of regular season wins.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#160 » by 70sFan » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:19 pm

I don't think Garnett peaked higher than Russell, Wilt or Kareem and although I understand his case, presenting 2004 KG > 1977 Kareem like it is a fact or consensus opinion.

I would take 1977 Kareem over 2004 Garnett comfortably to be honest.

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