RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 (Bill Russell)

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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#161 » by Jordan Syndrome » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:22 pm

limbo wrote:
Jordan Syndrome wrote:I see little to no difference between 03 KG and 04 KG.


Do you see a lot of difference between 03 KG and 04 KG in comparison to 05 KG and 06 KG? Because i don't. So if someone sees 04 KG as one of the best peaks ever, you would kind of need to put his 03, 05, 06 seasons in the same tier, because he was essentially the same type of player with the same type of style and production with very marginal fluctuations in scoring/passing volume and efficiency.

While keeping in mind that 04 KG had the best circumstances to maximize his ability based on the talent level of his supporting cast.


I dont see any issue with putting 03-06 KG in the same tier. I chose not to include seasons where the player didn't make the post-season but one thing about 05 Garnett is he was forced into the center position more where he wasn't quite as effective as he was at the PF position. By 2006 Garnett was having some issues with ownership (Glen Taylor) and clearly frustrated by the lack of talent put around him during his tenure. Imaging Garnett in 2005 and 2007 looking over at Duncan and Shaq with Wade? His play took a step back for me in this time.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#162 » by Jordan Syndrome » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:24 pm

70sFan wrote:I don't think Garnett peaked higher than Russell, Wilt or Kareem and although I understand his case, presenting 2004 KG > 1977 Kareem like it is a fact or consensus opinion.

I would take 1977 Kareem over 2004 Garnett comfortably to be honest.


Odinn21 asked for a comparison.

I supplied my own list based on his comparison.

Nobody here is acting like it is fact, I am just listing my personal list which I have honed over the years/decades.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#163 » by LA Bird » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:26 pm

DQuinn1575 wrote:
LA Bird wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:As there's been some on-going discussion regarding the relative dominance of Russell teams vs Duncan teams, one poster cautioning against cherry-picking ONLY the defensive dominance; and 70sFan has cautioned against using raw SRS across eras.......I decided to make a scaled SRS model (based on year-to-year standard deviation); I can try to do the same with net rating soon, though it should read much the same, I would think.

Anyway, below are the top 20 [rs] scaled SRS seasons between Russell/Duncan, in order (scaled SRS value in parentheses); the difference is sometimes in the 3rd decimal place. I'll let you all decide how you feel about the era in which they occur....

1. '57 Celtics (+9.771)
2. '07 Spurs (+9.767)
3. '16 Spurs (+9.247)
4. '65 Celtics (+8.752)
5. '05 Spurs (+8.584)
6. '62 Celtics (+8.275)
7. '04 Spurs (+8.258)
8. '06 Spurs (+7.955)
9. '01 Spurs (+7.914)
10. '60 Celtics (+7.849)
11. '14 Spurs (+7.402)
12. '63 Celtics (+7.321)
13. '99 Spurs (+7.269)
14. '58 Celtics (+7.207)
15. '67 Celtics (+6.845)
16. '02 Spurs (+6.797)
17. '12 Spurs (+6.783)
18. '61 Celtics (+6.751)
19. '64 Celtics (+6.611)
20. '13 Spurs (+6.550)


So a Russell Celtics team holds the top spot, though barely (and it's from the 50's), but a Tim Duncan team holds 11 of the top 20 (and 6 of the top 9).
Given the "Cousy left, and the Celtics got better" rhetoric is something that is frequently tossed around here, imo it's an interesting finding that SIX of the nine Russell teams that appear in this top 20 [including the best one, and 5 of their top 6] were teams from when Cousy was still around ('59 is the ONLY Cousy year that does not appear here). That was an unexpected finding.

There was an old blog on BBR which did a similar z score analysis for SRS and other team metrics up until 2010. I am not sure how you calculated your scaled scores but the numbers and the team orders seem to be slightly different to theirs:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/indexd428.html?p=4723


1. Not sure what the point being made is - if you are comparing a team to the top couple of teams in the league - like how dominant they are against the top teams then Z score makes sense. If you are comparing how good they are to the average, then straight SRS should be used.

2. Also, past the first championship for either team, they didnt care about the regular season, and success for the season was winning the title, even at the cost of regular season wins.

I wasn't making a point - just sharing old data that might be relevant to what trex_8063 was doing. The Russell-Duncan debate is already done and dusted which is why most of the thread is now discussing Garnett as we wait for round #5.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#164 » by Dutchball97 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:34 pm

I'm a bit confused about the argument about potential. If KG had a better supporting cast he would've done a lot better. So would everyone though. Isn't this about what they've actually shown us and not what they might've been able to do in more favorable environments?

And even then I'm not that confident that KG would've been able to take the Rockets to 2 championships in Hakeems place for example. Would he have won more championships than Wilt in the same situation? Maybe, but would he have done so with the knowledge about the game available at the time? Once again, very much doubt that. Would he have been as succesful with the Spurs if he and Duncan switched places? Maybe, but is it actually likely? Should it matter here?
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#165 » by Jaivl » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:42 pm

Jordan Syndrome wrote:Garnett vs Russell
04 Garnett
03 Garnett
65 Russell
64 Russell
02 Garnett
62 Russell
08 Garnett
66 Russell
01 Garnett
00 Garnett
60 Russell
61 Russell

Garnett vs Kareem
04 Garnett
03 Garnett
77 Kareem
02 Garnett
08 Garnett
72 Kareem
71 Kareem
01 Garnett
00 Garnett
74 Kareem
80 Kareem


Chamberlain vs Garnett
04 Garnett
03 Garnett
67 Chamberlain
02 Garnett
68 Chamberlain
08 Garnett
64 Chamberlain
66 Chamberlain
01 Garnett
00 Garnett

I understand most seasons are very close (well, at least I guess so), and I certainly appreciate trying to take away the team context, but I think you're selling mid-70s Kareem a bit short here. From what I've seem Kareem's defense doesn't really seem to drop off *that much* until later in the 80s.

(Had Garnett top 4 over Kareem on the last project myself, now changed that)
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#166 » by Texas Chuck » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:42 pm

Dutchball97 wrote:I'm a bit confused about the argument about potential. If KG had a better supporting cast he would've done a lot better. So would everyone though. Isn't this about what they've actually shown us and not what they might've been able to do in more favorable environments?

And even then I'm not that confident that KG would've been able to take the Rockets to 2 championships in Hakeems place for example. Would he have won more championships than Wilt in the same situation? Maybe, but would he have done so with the knowledge about the game available at the time? Once again, very much doubt that. Would he have been as succesful with the Spurs if he and Duncan switched places? Maybe, but is it actually likely? Should it matter here?



I take the same approach. I am evaluating these players on their actual careers not my assumptions of what they might have done somewhere else. That just brings even more subjective speculation into the mix to a degree I'm not comfortable with. However, I accept others feel quite differently and I respect their approach even if it could never be mine.

As to the 2nd half---plug and play isn't remotely a real thing and that's definitely a waste of time imo.


For me with KG specifically, 2004 and the Boston years are the better supporting casts. We don't have to imagine a fictional universe. And what we saw was give KG a bad but even somewhat competent roster and he was going to win 45-50 games and get them to the playoffs in a tough conference, but give him a good sidekick in Cassell and some role players and he could do even better--top seed and a WCF trip undone by said sidekick hurting himself. And give him a really good supporting cast like in Boston and he makes you championship quality and even more--Celtics had a lot of injury issues in the playoffs and KG and some MASH units still kept being really tough outs.

So I don't need to pretend Duncan and KG switched places to understand what KG could do with more talent around him--he'd compete for titles.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#167 » by limbo » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:48 pm

Jordan Syndrome wrote:I dont see any issue with putting 03-06 KG in the same tier. I chose not to include seasons where the player didn't make the post-season but one thing about 05 Garnett is he was forced into the center position more where he wasn't quite as effective as he was at the PF position. By 2006 Garnett was having some issues with ownership (Glen Taylor) and clearly frustrated by the lack of talent put around him during his tenure. Imaging Garnett in 2005 and 2007 looking over at Duncan and Shaq with Wade? His play took a step back for me in this time.


You're not wrong on the context, but most credible metrics seem to suggest he had about as impact in 2005 as he did in 2003.

But yeah, key players like Cassell/Sprewell looked worse than the previous year and overall the team was imploding. Saunders lost the dressing room. When McHale took over they actually played much better towards the end and had a .612 win percentage and barely missed the Playoffs. Not that it would have mattered, because they'd get swept by the Suns immediately.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#168 » by Owly » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:50 pm

Blackmill wrote:Regarding Russell's assists, I think his perception as a playmaker is influenced by him being such a smart defender, and more generally a very smart person. It's easy to be optimistic about his passing with more reps in a more modern environment (I am). But his playmaking on film is frankly not too impressive, and as mentioned by others, his assists are mostly hand-offs. I know he's made a couple nice bounce passes on tape but those are passes we've seen other centers (who are not considered great passers) make. As mentioned, I am optimistic about his passing though, so I don't blame a person for thinking Russell would be a top passing center in the league if he played today (definitely not Jokic but Bam- or Gasol-like seems possible).

I'm inclined to file the possibility of Gasol-like (whichever Gasol) passing in the same place - though to a lesser degree - as the idea that came up that Russell could conjure up a jumper by his smarts and his will. Which is to say it doesn't really matter to me what the time travel version does and I get that time travel comps work differently for different people but I just don't see the evidence of him displaying this skill (unless the assists without turnover numbers [what limited amount we've seen don't look great] in big minutes) so there seems to be an awful lot of faith in Russell that he'd "figure it out". I am more cynical.

Especially because I'm inclined to rate Gasol (I haven't looked into this deeply, open to being wrong on him). I'm guessing it's regarding Marc and that it's of guys still playing in the league. Even if you think one can reliably learn offensive court vision, Marc Gasol had soft hands for touch passes, paws big enough to palm the ball then shovel one-handers easily. On the limited information seen I'd be skeptical of the physical capacity as well as of the offensive vision for Russell to do similar.

Sorry this is a derail.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#169 » by Jordan Syndrome » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:52 pm

Dutchball97 wrote:I'm a bit confused about the argument about potential. If KG had a better supporting cast he would've done a lot better. So would everyone though. Isn't this about what they've actually shown us and not what they might've been able to do in more favorable environments?


100%.

The best thing about analyzing a player like Garnett is even though he didn't get put into great opportunity right away, he did show the ability to co-exist with other "stars" immediately. The fact Garnett's skill-set fit seamlessly with different types of perimeter stars, notably Cassell, Pierce and Allen, shows us his impact should never drop off when on title contending teams.

Knowing this fact, it is up to us as player evaluators, this project directly comparing players to one another, to come up with an ordered list as to who was greater.

And even then I'm not that confident that KG would've been able to take the Rockets to 2 championships in Hakeems place for example.


Nobody knows this. This type of analysis really isn't going to get us anywhere. Are we judging Garnett directly based upon how well he would do in Hakeem's shoes? That doesn't seem productive to me.

Would he have won more championships than Wilt in the same situation?


Would Russell win 11 championships again if he replayed his career? Is that the analysis we are going to do in this project? Or perhaps it is better to lay the ground work for each player by analyzing each players play, skill-set, ability and accomplishments and compare in an abstract.

Maybe, but would he have done so with the knowledge about the game available at the time? Once again, very much doubt that. Would he have been as succesful with the Spurs if he and Duncan switched places? Maybe, but is it actually likely? Should it matter here?


It shouldn't matter, none of this should.

Saying all this, I still had Garnett near the bottom of the top 10 and below players in his "tier" like Duncan, Russell, and Kareem and side-by-side with Wilt and Hakeem.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#170 » by Odinn21 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:55 pm

Jordan Syndrome wrote:
Odinn21 wrote:Russell vs. Garnett
Abdul-Jabbar vs. Garnett
Chamberlain vs. Garnett
Duncan vs. Garnett
O'Neal vs. Garnett


Garnett vs Russell
04 Garnett
03 Garnett
65 Russell
64 Russell
02 Garnett
62 Russell
08 Garnett
66 Russell
01 Garnett
00 Garnett
60 Russell
61 Russell

Garnett vs Kareem
04 Garnett
03 Garnett
77 Kareem
02 Garnett
08 Garnett
72 Kareem
71 Kareem
01 Garnett
00 Garnett
74 Kareem
80 Kareem


Chamberlain vs Garnett
04 Garnett
03 Garnett
67 Chamberlain
02 Garnett
68 Chamberlain
08 Garnett
64 Chamberlain
66 Chamberlain
01 Garnett
00 Garnett

Horrible lists TBH. Flat out horrible.

I'll keep it short by talking about one of those things in there;
2004 Garnett has no case over 1967 Chamberlain. Literally none. Chamberlain scored better (even adjusting for pace doesn't make up for the efficiency gap), grabbed boards better, distributed ball better, defended better. And you say not only 2004 Garnett was better, also 2003 version was better?
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#171 » by Jordan Syndrome » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:59 pm

Odinn21 wrote:
Jordan Syndrome wrote:
Odinn21 wrote:Russell vs. Garnett
Abdul-Jabbar vs. Garnett
Chamberlain vs. Garnett
Duncan vs. Garnett
O'Neal vs. Garnett


Garnett vs Russell
04 Garnett
03 Garnett
65 Russell
64 Russell
02 Garnett
62 Russell
08 Garnett
66 Russell
01 Garnett
00 Garnett
60 Russell
61 Russell

Garnett vs Kareem
04 Garnett
03 Garnett
77 Kareem
02 Garnett
08 Garnett
72 Kareem
71 Kareem
01 Garnett
00 Garnett
74 Kareem
80 Kareem


Chamberlain vs Garnett
04 Garnett
03 Garnett
67 Chamberlain
02 Garnett
68 Chamberlain
08 Garnett
64 Chamberlain
66 Chamberlain
01 Garnett
00 Garnett

Horrible lists TBH. Flat out horrible.



I recommend you stop being such a jerk. You asked a question in this thread, I took the time out of my busy morning to answer it and you respond with "Horrible list"?

I am reporting you for derailing and attacking a poster rather than a post. Good day sir.

At the very least show some semblance of desiring a discussion.

"Why do you have KG so high?"
"Why are you not as high on Wilt as I am?"

None of that? Respect, where is it?
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#172 » by trex_8063 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:01 pm

Thru post #171:

Bill Russell - 16 (ardee, Doctor MJ, DQuinn1575, Dr Positivity, drza, Dutchball97, Hal14, Joao Saraiva, limbo, mailmp, Odinn21, penbeast0, PistolPeteJR, SeniorWalker, Texas Chuck, TrueLAfan)
Tim Duncan - 7 (trex_8063, RSCD3_, Matzer, Hornet Mania, eminence, Ambrose, Ainosterhaspie)
Kevin Garnett - 1 (Blackmill)


I'm actually going to jump the gun on this one by a little, even though it's only ~1pm EST (which is about 48 hours for that it's been open). I know I said I'd leave it open a few hours longer, but I've only collected like two extra votes in the last 13 hours, and the discussion seems like it's mostly moved on to Kevin Garnett (which will be more relevant to later threads).

Russell clearly has this one in hand (full two-thirds of the vote so far, and every single Duncan voter had him as his first alternate).
So I'm calling this one, and we'll start up #5 (which, if it's looking tighter, we'll leave that one for 2-4 hours extra); I expect the Duncan vs KG vs Wilt vs Shaq and/or Magic to be spirited.

Spoiler:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:.

Ambrose wrote:.

ardee wrote:.

Baski wrote:.

bidofo wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

DeKlaw wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

DQuinn1575 wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dutchball97 wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

Franco wrote:.

freethedevil wrote:.

Gregoire wrote:.

Hal14 wrote:.

HeartBreakKid wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

Joao Saraiva wrote:.

Jordan Syndrome wrote:.

LA Bird wrote:.

lebron3-14-3 wrote:.

limbo wrote:.

mailmp wrote:.

Matzer wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Odinn21 wrote:.

Owly wrote:.

O_6 wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

PistolPeteJR wrote:.

RSCD3_ wrote:.

scabbarista wrote:.

Senior wrote:.

SeniorWalker wrote:.

SHAQ32 wrote:.

Texas Chuck wrote:.

Tim Lehrbach wrote:.

TrueLAfan wrote:.

Whopper_Sr wrote:.

ZeppelinPage wrote:.

2klegend wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

876Stephen wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#173 » by O_6 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:03 pm

To me, Bill Russell is the most underappreciated athlete in American sports history. I remember the popular thought process for young fans like me 15 years ago was "Bill Russell was the same size as Tayshaun Prince, he'd get destroyed in today's league". It wasn't until I started reading more (including posts on here from great posters like Regul8r and several others) and researching more about the history of the game that I really came to the conclusion on how wrong about Bill Russell I was.

In my opinion, the most transformative athletes in American Sports History based strictly on their in-game style and impact are Babe Ruth and Bill Russell. Babe Ruth singlehandedly ended the "Dead Ball Era" in baseball by simply wondering to himself "Why can't I take advantage of my pure power and just hit the ball over the fence and score in an instant?" and then going out and hitting more home runs individually than any other team in the league did. He rewrote the way hitting worked in baseball and gave birth to the Modern style. Bill Russell decided "Why don't I utilize my world-class athleticism by jumping on defense to protect the rim and win games with defense?", and then went ahead and revolutionized the sport. But just like Babe Ruth was still the best Home Run Hitter in the league when the rest of the league adopted his style, Bill Russell remained the best Defender in the league after the rest of the league adopted his style.

When you combine this fact with the fact that he's the GOAT winner in sports and the one of the most influential off-the-field/court figures in American Sports history, I just can't help but think we completely take Bill Russell for granted today. His legacy is truly massive on so many different levels and it just pisses me off that there are still younger fans today who were like me 15 years ago and simply ignore or disrespect the greatness of Russell. He's just a special figure and I wish more people gave him the credit he deserved.

I know that I've mainly been writing about "Legacy" above, I just feel so strongly about Russell's place in American history that I had to. But now I'll talk about why I believe Russell should be ranked ahead of other players.

I consider Bill Russell the GOAT defensive player by a clear margin. Strength, length, jumping, agility, speed, quickness, reaction time, and positioning. To me those are the core aspects of defense and Russell combined all of those skills in a way that I don't think we've really seen anyone else completely replicate. Tim Duncan was a little bigger than Russell, but he clearly was a tier below Russell in terms of agility/speed/quickness/jumping. When I watch Hakeem, I think one flaw in his defense is that he doesn't utilize length as well as other great rim protectors so he is a little over-reliant on his jumping, quickness, and otherworldly reaction time.

I feel as if Bill Russell was somewhat of a best of both worlds version of Duncan and Hakeem on defense. Much like Duncan (and unlike Hakeem), Russell was a big proponent of verticality and often had his hands straight up in the air to always be in a position to contest. Much like Hakeem (and unlike Duncan), Russell utilized an extremely quick jump (and 2nd jump) that forced shooters into very tough shots. Russell being able to combine these two elite skills just made him so dominant on defense, even before you take into account his agility. His defensive court coverage and quickness were also superior to Duncan's and more reminiscent of Hakeem's. However, unlike Hakeem (and like Duncan) he didn't exert too much effort into contesting outside shots (because strategically he felt it wasn't worth it in the pre-3pt line era) and focused more on dominating the defensive glass (GOAT Defensive Rebounder). Hakeem, KG, and Walton definitely were more consistent at contesting outside; however Russell was clearly a very good perimeter defender who could comfortably switch onto any guard/wing in the sport. He guarded Chet Walker against Philly, a player who was basically the athletic prototype of the modern Small Forward.

Russell, being a player who often went 45+ minutes, clearly did not go all out on defense and saved his energy throughout the game. Considering the fact that the Celtics teams of those era won SO MANY close games in important moments, I have to wonder if part of the reason is because Bill Russell decided to "turn up" his energy levels when it matter and dominate on defense. Of course simple luck played a role in those close wins, but I wish we had more data on their performance late in games because I suspect that the Celtics defense became monstrous during the high leverage possessions late in games and that's obviously primarily due to Russell.

I'm a huge Tim Duncan fan and he gets my 2nd vote. I do believe that Duncan peaked higher than Russell in '02 and '03 seasons because he was close enough defensively while being significantly stronger offensively. Duncan also had the greater longevity compared to Russell. But Russell was able to maintain his athleticism in a way that Duncan simply wasn't, and because of it he remained at a true MVP and dominant DPOY level for a longer period of time. If Duncan never had the plantar fasciitis in '06, I think he ends up ahead of Russell on my list. But that really affected his quickness and above-the-rim play and while he was still The Big Fundamental, he wasn't the same player. Russell maintained his athleticism extremely well, especially for his era, and at age 34 in '69 he was still probably quicker/faster than Duncan ever was. Duncan's longevity makes it close, but in the end I'll go with Russell. I'm a little unclear about my 3rd choice (Magic/Wilt/KG/Hakeem/Shaq) are all in the mix, but currently I have Wilt at #3 because of his two-way impact on the interior but I'm far from set with that pick.

1. Russell
2. Duncan
3. Chamberlain


I wish I was able to participate more thoroughly, things just came up and I've been really busy.. However, I'll try to keep up and make posts as much as I can. Some really awesome stuff I've been reading, you guys are doing a great job.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#174 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:07 pm

Dutchball97 wrote:I'm a bit confused about the argument about potential. If KG had a better supporting cast he would've done a lot better. So would everyone though. Isn't this about what they've actually shown us and not what they might've been able to do in more favorable environments?

And even then I'm not that confident that KG would've been able to take the Rockets to 2 championships in Hakeems place for example. Would he have won more championships than Wilt in the same situation? Maybe, but would he have done so with the knowledge about the game available at the time? Once again, very much doubt that. Would he have been as succesful with the Spurs if he and Duncan switched places? Maybe, but is it actually likely? Should it matter here?


For me the Garnett argument was always rooted in 2 things:

1. The fact that in that 2002-04 window the Duncan vs Garnett debate was very much a thing on equal footing. It was only after the Timberwolves fell apart that Garnett got retroactively re-classified as a tier below Duncan.

2. By +/- stats, Garnett had a great case over Duncan. Meaning we're not talking about Garnett literally having less impact than Duncan and a "What might have been?" argument saying it could have been otherwise. The "what might have been" only came into play when people said "But Duncan won titles". Duncan was universally seen to be in a superior context and what we call impact data basically said that was the difference between the relative team success between Duncan and Garnett.

Now speaking for my journey here: I absolutely knocked dropped Garnett down a tier when Minny went sideways just like pretty much everyone else. I was not remotely immune to it. But I was in conversations at the time wherein I was essentially conceding "Well sure if I saw Garnett get better teammates and have team success as impressive as Duncan then I'd have to reconsider Garnett and possibly move him back up."

And then it happened. And while people looking backward might say "He got Pierce and Allen, how could they not be amazing? There are better supporting casts and then there are SUPER-teams!", that's not at all how it felt at the time and the team didn't even win because of what we thought the competitive advantage would be. We thought it would be a team that was best on offense and that they'd probably be a 50+ win team. Instead they were ultra-dominant on defense and won a lot more than that.

Anyway, just saying, I'm not really looking to elevate Garnett here based on potential.

What about me saying "Garnett = Future!". To me that's about setting context for the comparison and you can decide what that means to you. As I've said with Russell - who I am still voting for here - the recognition that that certain skill advantages are a bigger deal when shooting gets better in the league is a factor that essentially leaves me prioritizing guys who will scale better to higher opponent skill to a degree, but not drastically so.

If you're looking for a clear threshold in the other direction:

When I do these lists in the end I always zero in on Player A vs Player B rather than a final acid test based on a statistical score.
When you do it this way you start to realize that depending on the comparisons that you focus on you can get a different order.
I prioritize comparisons between contemporaries above comparisons across eras.

So, while I think I'd draft Jerry West above any of his contemporaries for today's game, I still expect to have Russell and Wilt ahead of him in my GOAT list. (I go back and forth on West vs Oscar.)

These out-of-era points can sway me in certain circumstances, but they are secondary in importance compared to what actually happened.

Last note: I understand folks using a different method than me and I'm fine with that. Maybe I'll even change my philosophy at a certain point on this like I have with other aspects of this exercise.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#175 » by Owly » Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:07 pm

Jordan Syndrome wrote:Cassell being the first true, All-star level talent he ever played with in his career

Brandon?
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#176 » by Odinn21 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:18 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
Odinn21 wrote:Edited. The first version looked like baiting even though it wasn't my intention.

Some of the pro-Garnett arguments don't make sense.

Garnett would be more valuable now due to some of his qualities being better than Duncan's? Better time of basketball history Duncan would be more valuable. How's that for a thought? We're doing a top 100 project. Not top 100 if they were playing now project.


While they may not have stated it as such, I suspect what some people are implying is that KG could do what TD does by way of being an elite "traditional" big-man defender, but is ALSO more suited to today's space & pace era. Not sure I totally agree [especially with the front portion of that statement], but that may be the assertion.

Although I could be wrong; because whether it's intentional or not, many people do tend to frame their thinking into how they'd do right now terms [recency bias]. This will become a bigger issue [imo] when we get to a player like Steph Curry.

I'm all for accounting for portability. But it shouldn't be one way street.
Also some of the arguments against older legends don't make sense because the tools we have now didn't exist back then.

trex_8063 wrote:Even as I go for Duncan in this spot [who yes, definitely IS very portable], I'm willing to concede Garnett may be even more portable, due to his athletic versatility and his greater "guard skills".

Garnett is more portable to what came after and Duncan is more portable to what came before.
Duncan's more portable time frame is bigger than Garnett's. So, how Garnett is more portable on overall?
That's one way to look at.

Also, Garnett is getting too much benefit of the doubt in this approach because him being portable to modern game better kind of make pro-Garnett arguments overlook what happened at the time he was playing.

trex_8063 wrote:fwiw, I suspect Garnett would rate out ahead by this methodology against SOME of the above, whether you agree or not. He might beat one or two of them for me, actually.

I was not saying Garnett would fall behind of all those names. The spoiler alert part is the only certain ones.

I'd rate Magic's and Bird's average prime level higher, but their primes were cut short. So, Garnett would make up for some of the gap.
I feel like Olajuwon is somewhere between the definitely better prime guys and Magic and Bird though. His prime wasn't cut short.

Nowitzki, Robinson and Garnett are always great players to compare one to another.

trex_8063 wrote:J.E.'s RAPM does include the post-season. His best 10 years RAPM combined is still 2nd only to Lebron in the data-ball era.

I know that. I was suggesting that postseason RAPM alone.
Also; from 2000 to 2009, Garnett's postseason minutes to total minutes ratio is barely 8%.
Duncan's ratio in the same time frame is double of that and James' ratio almost thrice ('09-'18).

So, I stand by the principle and I don't think this changes my point.

trex_8063 wrote:
Odinn21 wrote:and his biggest qualities being more valuable in this heavy spacing / 3 point shooting era (which is not the bigger part of the basketball history, also a hypothetical).

This isn't entirely true. You don't have to be shooting from 23' to provide a spacing effect. Bigs like Willis Reed were providing a positive spacing effect before the 3pt line. In logging all these old games, Jack Twyman in his commentary repeatedly refers to the positive effect [opening paths to the basket for others] it creates when the defensive big has to come out and defend outside the paint (he even commented about this effect during Kareem's rookie debut, with Walt Bellamy [not really even a particularly dangerous outside shooter] who was drawing Kareem out of the paint).
Honestly, as often as Jack Twyman was noticing and commenting about it circa-1970, I'm genuinely surprised it took coaches/GM's so long to actively encourage/recruit stretch bigs.

Ah, you're absolutely right. After such a long post, I didn't want to make it any longer. I wanted to mean modern spacing. It's just Garnett being more portable to now stuff.

Unrelated, man, I loved Red Holzman's Knicks. They were so ahead of their time. I definitely believe that you could extract their playbook and insert it on a 2000s team and that would work just fine. They head so many PnR and PnP plays while no one else was utilizing that play style.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#177 » by penbeast0 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:18 pm

Owly wrote:
Jordan Syndrome wrote:Cassell being the first true, All-star level talent he ever played with in his career

Brandon?


Starbury? Admittedly Garnett was very young and Marbury was pretty immature himself but his talent level was All-Star level.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#178 » by Texas Chuck » Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:34 pm

penbeast0 wrote:
Owly wrote:
Jordan Syndrome wrote:Cassell being the first true, All-star level talent he ever played with in his career

Brandon?


Starbury? Admittedly Garnett was very young and Marbury was pretty immature himself but his talent level was All-Star level.


Wally Z made a couple all-star teams. Googs was all-star caliber and made an all-star team. Dirk played with 2* all-stars his entire career--Nash and Finley and we never ever go down this road. It's why I push back. It's a KG only narrative and its not even accurate.

*yes I am aware Josh Howard was an injury replacement during the 67 win team because they were kinda forced to and Kidd another injury replacement when the game was in Dallas and they were trying to honor his career.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 

Post#179 » by limbo » Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:34 pm

Dutchball97 wrote:I'm a bit confused about the argument about potential. If KG had a better supporting cast he would've done a lot better. So would everyone though.


He would've done a lot better in the 'winning' (key word) department, which is the main argument for the anti-Garnett crowd, but NOT the pro-Garnett crowd... The pro-Garnett crowd is just responding to the claim why he hasn't won more, not making their claims based on winning.

Isn't this about what they've actually shown us and not what they might've been able to do in more favorable environments.


Yes, and Garnett has shown us his impact was on par with Duncan's for most of their prime. With Duncan having an advantage from 1998 to about 2002, then being close from 2003-2006 (outside 2004 where KG had clear edge) and Garnett having the advantage from 2008 to possibly 2013...

And this is with Garnett's impact being more 'flexible'. What i mean by this, is that Garnett was able to produce/replicate a comparable or better level of impact through a wider variety of different team contexts/dynamics than Duncan. Duncan was always coached by Popovich, his teams were more talented on aggregate, the teammate turnover on his teams was less emphatic and affected by injuries, and finally Popovich put him on minutes restriction sooner in his career during the regular season.

Garnett reproduced league-leading levels of impact with different coaches, more radical system changes and less talented teams with more turnover.

And even then I'm not that confident that KG would've been able to take the Rockets to 2 championships in Hakeems place for example. Would he have won more championships than Wilt in the same situation? Maybe, but would he have done so with the knowledge about the game available at the time? Once again, very much doubt that. Would he have been as succesful with the Spurs if he and Duncan switched places? Maybe, but is it actually likely? Should it matter here?


There are plenty of ATG players in NBA history that you could insert into various situations in NBA history and they would've done better or worse, because it depends on the team context that's around them, as well as the strength of the competiton.

There's several ways of looking at the GOAT debate. You might look at it from a purely vacuum-centric standpoint of ''this is what happened in real time in this period, these are the teams that won, player X was the best player on this team, so that's why player X is the GOAT''...

Personally, i realize that there are a lot more variables outside a singular players control that affect their chances of having a largely winning career... I won't waste time outlining what they are, but i'm pretty sure that if you gave some thought to it, you can figure them out pretty easily.

So basically, these factors then inevitable create scenarios, where two players might be close in terms of basketball goodness/value/impact, but because of circumstances largely beyond said players control, one player ends up winning 5 titles, and the other only 1...

So then people come to me and tell me why does it matter to me what the context/circumstances are? Why not just make it simple on myself and pick the guy with 5 titles over the guy with 1 title... The world is black and white after all, left or right, strong or weak, pretty or ugly. There's little to debate in between. People like binary answers because it makes life simple.

Anyway, my personal investment in this project isn't to come here and point out which players won the most... I already know that. I'm here to figure out who the best players in NBA history were in terms of individual value/impact/goodness. Once i figure that out, i ask myself why these players weren't able to produced the desired team results. And if i believe this was due to context/circumstances largely beyond their control, i won't punish them for it.

Like, people seem to grasp this concept when it comes to Karl Malone or Charles Barkley versus a Chris Bosh... I don't think anyone here will argue Chris Bosh being higher on an all-time list than Charles Barkley, even if we focus just on prime years... So basically people understand the concept that you can be a Top 3-5 player in the league for several years and only get to the Finals once in your career and lose, but that doesn't make you a worse player than Chris Bosh... So why do they find it so difficult to accept a concept that two players who are pretty evenly matched by most metrics, could potentially have wildly different TEAM results? The clue is in the emphasis.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #4 (Bill Russell) 

Post#180 » by penbeast0 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:45 pm

I have Duncan over Garnett too and yes, to a large extent it's based on team results. They aren't separated by much for me (less than 10 spots on the ATG list) and I have to look closely to distinguish them as they were both incredible, high impact, players. But Duncan more consistently seemed to elevate his teams and teammates. Part of it was luck, he was put into a great situation early. Part of it may have been personality, Duncan was so (relatively) quiet and laid back while constantly being a great example of working hard in practice and on both ends of the floor and listening to your coaches while KG was more aggressive and in peoples' faces which can be wearing. Part of it might just be that it's hard to make these judgement calls and other than just relying on other people statistics, it's hard to find a peg for a narrative that puts KG over Duncan to me. But yes, while I try to never disparage Garnett or what he accomplished, I have Duncan slightly higher.
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