RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #1 (LeBron James)

[twyzted]

I would also say Lebron is very eager to be switched of player on defence. He would pick up butler coming over the half way line and as soon as he saw someone come he switched. He did same thing vs Kd in the finals.

I came away with a very different impression. Whether or not LeBron switched was due to the offensive scheme of Miami and the defensive scheme of LA.

Butler had yet explode on the scoreboard in games 1 and 2. At that point LA was commonly switching the PnR and they were winning. Moreover, LeBron was not Butler's primary defender on many possessions. This worked in part because Butler was attacking immediately after the screen and extra defenders were in the picture to help.

In game 3 Miami adjusted by focusing on clearing out and letting Butler ISO whenever he had a defender not named AD or LeBron on him. Because Butler was having scoring success this way, LeBron had more possessions on him, but LA hadn't modified their ball screen coverage (note that LA typically didn't make major in-game adjustments through the playoffs).

In game 4 LA adjusted by putting AD on Butler and having him go under the screens. In game 5 Miami countered by adjusting the screen angle and it didn't help that AD was hurt. In game 6 LA adjusted once more by putting LeBron back on Butler, having the guards show a bit more on the screens, and this limited Butler's switches. This was a big reason for LA's halftime lead. Once LA was up by 20 it was round robin with who was guarding Butler.

Point is, there's many schematic changes that led to LeBron switching off Butler or not. In G1 and G2 the switching was inconsequential. In G3 it hurt LA but was still by design. In G4 and G5 Davis had the responsibility of guarding Butler and LeBron saw relatively few possessions as Butler's defender. In G6 what happened was the opposite of what you're saying and LA won by halftime thanks to a new look on defense that, among other things, enabled LA to avoid switches so that LeBron could defend Butler.

Game 5 switched of butler many times in the 4th. that is the reason why they let butler iso. Butler fought to not be switched of lebron.
Same with durant vs gsw.

[LukaTheGOAT]

While I tend to agree with most of these, Kareem is arguably the most portable player in the game's history. There's not a single era that Kareem would be less dominant due to changes in environment. One can not get any more "all-time great" than that.

When I think of Bill Russell in the '90s or '10s, that's quite a challenge because Russell's utilization on offense gets so different.
Thinking Jordan or James in the '60s is also a challenge.

Looking at Kareem's career OTOH though;
Kareem in his younger days played against the legends of the '60s as Wilt, Reed, Thurmond. And then his older days, he played against Hakeem and Pat. In 1985-86 regular season, when Hakeem tried to defend Kareem 1v1, he got just demolished. Kareem averaged 41 ppg on .675 fg on Hakeem in those 3 games.
Following that train; Hakeem played against young Shaq. Shaq played against Duncan, and Duncan stayed as a major force in the '10s. Cut short to stay on topic.

I strongly disagree with the underlined part BTW. In terms of offensive peaks, Kareem, Shaq and Wilt, all matched the offensive level Jordan, James and Magic reached. The bigs are not even in the minority on that part.
When I think of the goat offensive players, half of 'em are bigs.

I don't really think of Kareem as portable in the sense that he can add to a wide variety of team's strategies. If you want Kareem to be Kareem, then he's your first scoring option and everyone else is fitting in around him. To me if Kareem were inherently portable then Magic's evolution wouldn't have had a dramatic shift more than a half decade into his career.

If what you mean is that Kareem would be great in all eras, I agree, and yes, Russell would be more limited here.

Re: Jordan or James in the '60s a challenge. Well, I think neither is likely as valuable as Russell in that game, and so Kareem may well have the edge as well.

I think though particularly with James it's kind of astonishing to think what he'd bring to the table. There was no one in the NBA with his build. It's like "Imagine a bigger, stronger Elgin Baylor with something close to Oscar Robertson's brain, do you think he could play well against Baylor and Oscar?" Yes, I think he would.

Re: Disagree about offensive peaks. Well what I'd say is that the list of offensive dynasties in history is entirely led by perimeter guys.

Bob Davies
Oscar Robertson
Calvin Murphy
Magic Johnson
Michael Jordan
Steve Nash
Steph Curry

None of those big men you talk about led these dynasties. None of them. It's literally never happened in a league that's been around for 70+ years. I think that says something.

Maybe you could argue that this is due to him getting to play alongside Kobe and Penny, but I do believe Shaq led an offensive dynasty.

From his Backpicks article: "From 1995-2002, he had the second-best eight-year run of any lead player in NBA history (+8.8 rORtg) and his 1997-2001 Lakers had the best five-year postseason offense in history." Shaq is a top 5 offensive player ever in my opinion.

(Edit)- Sorry, I see someone already responded to you with my example. You can ignore it.

[Blackmill]

Spoiler:

I would also say Lebron is very eager to be switched of player on defence. He would pick up butler coming over the half way line and as soon as he saw someone come he switched. He did same thing vs Kd in the finals.

I came away with a very different impression. Whether or not LeBron switched was due to the offensive scheme of Miami and the defensive scheme of LA.

Butler had yet explode on the scoreboard in games 1 and 2. At that point LA was commonly switching the PnR and they were winning. Moreover, LeBron was not Butler's primary defender on many possessions. This worked in part because Butler was attacking immediately after the screen and extra defenders were in the picture to help.

In game 3 Miami adjusted by focusing on clearing out and letting Butler ISO whenever he had a defender not named AD or LeBron on him. Because Butler was having scoring success this way, LeBron had more possessions on him, but LA hadn't modified their ball screen coverage (note that LA typically didn't make major in-game adjustments through the playoffs).

In game 4 LA adjusted by putting AD on Butler and having him go under the screens. In game 5 Miami countered by adjusting the screen angle and it didn't help that AD was hurt. In game 6 LA adjusted once more by putting LeBron back on Butler, having the guards show a bit more on the screens, and this limited Butler's switches. This was a big reason for LA's halftime lead. Once LA was up by 20 it was round robin with who was guarding Butler.

Point is, there's many schematic changes that led to LeBron switching off Butler or not. In G1 and G2 the switching was inconsequential. In G3 it hurt LA but was still by design. In G4 and G5 Davis had the responsibility of guarding Butler and LeBron saw relatively few possessions as Butler's defender. In G6 what happened was the opposite of what you're saying and LA won by halftime thanks to a new look on defense that, among other things, enabled LA to avoid switches so that LeBron could defend Butler.

Game 5 switched of butler many times in the 4th. that is the reason why they let butler iso. Butler fought to not be switched of lebron.
Same with durant vs gsw.

I'm not sure about that. I spent the last 10 minutes rewatching the 4th quarter of G5 and

1. LeBron switched onto Butler 5 times.
2. LeBron switched off Butler 2 times and only when it would leave Davis as the defender.
3. LeBron's defensive assignment was Bam or Crowder on the vast majority of possessions.

Also, Miami essentially trapped LeBron in the PnR when AD wasn't the screen setter, so it was easy for Butler to stay on LeBron.

Anyways, this isn't the place for this conversation, and I don't intend to fact check every left field post.

[JordansBulls]

I thought this would start and be a few weeks or month or so away not within the same week the finals concluded. I wouldn’t have time to commit to the whole project so I didn’t register. Seems though that already at least 25% already stopped voting. Went from 37 votes to 27 votes already.
Maybe next time have a requirement of having 100% participation for the top 10 at least.

[Pelly24]

But then again I also see a 6-10, 235 center, very athletic but not like a giannis or ben simmons (I don't care too much about the high jump, most of these guys could match those numbers), who could slide his feet and move with the best of em (as far as bigs) but also didn't have a jumper and didn't really have an offensive skillset. Take an adebayo. He's slightly less long (1 inch in height and 2 in wingspan) and can't move vertically like that, also slides his feet a bit worse, but he's a lot stronger (more muscular, 255), more explosive, has a short mid range shot etc.

I still have russell about 4th or 5th, and I'm not saying I don't see what you see, but I also see what I see. You don't think that nowadays there are a lot of 6-9/6-10 guys who have a track athlete type of body and athleticism? I think there's plenty of them in high school and in college, they just never sniff the league because they don't have an nba game. A shorter, 235 pounds center with basically no jumper or defined offensive game? Does he make the nba just because he's an elite track and field type of athlete (for his size)?

Honestly no, if I watch a 1966 game I don't think oh, this guy could play in the nba right now. I think oh well, with modern day training etc this guy would be bigger and would develop a jumper, which would make him a pretty decent offensive player (not great, he would still be undersized and he lacked that type of talent/touch) with his athleticism, bbiq, passing etc, and he would eventually be an anthony davis type of defender

Most of the guys in the NBA could be an Olympic medalist contender in the high jump? Then why hasn’t there been even one NBA player in the last 60 years be a world class high jumper?

I meant the superstar athletes, like lebron, ben simmons, giannis. American sports are full of potential olympic athletes (see the nfl) being a professional in the major leagues is just a lot better. Then again I meant bill russell numbers (6-9 is his record), not nowadays medalist contender. You think guys like gordon, lavine, lebron, simmons, giannis, westbrook etc couldn't do that?

Ehh, 6'9" is still very high to reach and to have that leaping ability at that size and length without the benefit of modern training and the fact he likely didn't focus on it all that much is insane. If we want to assume they could match those numbers—and there's nothing suggesting Giannis and Simmons and westbrook really could—then I think we could assume he could get his jump even higher. Russell was at least as athletic as those guys, maybe besides LeBron and MJ.

[2klegend]

I hate to be pedantic but the use of the term "longevity" being used by you and another poster here to attack LeBron is disheartening during this project.

I will just say this: there are many people in this project who have LeBron and Jordan as similar level players, with LeBron playing multiple years at a level similar to that prime level they compare so similarly at.

What is great for many of us in this project as we no longer need to compare LeBron to Jordan like everyone on every media outlet is doing, and doing so at a level far below the discussion on this board. Instead, we get to compare Jordan to Bill Russell

Like I said, if Jordan knew that extending his basketball season would have such a huge impact on his legacy perception, he will continue to play until the wheel fell off. But the reality is Jordan already makes up his mind that he is going to give the league 10-12 seasons and shows his resume as such.

For Lebron, he knows he will never be able to match Jordan's resume in those time frames so his case will continue to center around building a long career, aka the Kareem route.

I mean MJ has gone on record and even the people/players around him have said that he was burned out needed a mental break after the first 3peat.

You are just projecting your own thoughts onto his own actions, doesn't make much sense.

He wasn't burned out as much as he had nothing left to prove to the doubters at the time and even MJ said that. I believe if there is a dominant player at his level and is winning and competing against him like Lebron, he wouldn't retire in '93. The fact the media already make him the best player unanimously, there isn't anything for him to play the game for because MJ love to have extra motivation and we all know he loves that.

[KPT1867]

I have done a lot of research on this topic.

1. Michael Jordan
2. LeBron James

By my estimation LeBron James is one of the most valuable players, most athletic, most versatile, one of the greatest champions, and dominates the box score, does the most for team. With that being said, Jordan narrowly edges him out at this stage.

My estimates of value come from a linear combination of WS/48, PER, and VORP during each of their top seasons. My athletic and versatility rating come from NBA 2K (with no actual statistics on athleticism and skillset, this is perhaps the best data source there is). My champions score, does not just the number of championships, but the competition (assessed by opponent SRS) and how short the series went. My box score estimates, adjusts all numbers to be on a common scale. For doing the most for a team, I look at win share as a percent of team wins.

Once, I did that. James and Jordan were very similar in terms of value, box score, doing the most for their teams. The difference was that Jordan championship score was higher than anyone elses (never going to game seven and winning all), though James is much higher than I would have thought. Jordan has significant accomplishments at this point. According to my ranking system, James could possibly over take Jordan in the next season or two.

[GODeron]

Can someone tell me how big was the edge that LeBron had against Jordan? I can’t find it.

[Ainosterhaspie]

Can someone tell me how big was the edge that LeBron had against Jordan? I can’t find it.

See post 310. I think it was 18-14

[eminence]

Can someone tell me how big was the edge that LeBron had against Jordan? I can’t find it.

Quoted from Trex:

Thru post #309 (edited AGAIN [seriously guys, leaving it right to the wire aren't we?]):

Lebron James - 18 (Ainosterhaspie, ardee, bidofo, Blackmill, Dr Positivity, eminence, freethedevil, Jaivl, Joao Saraiva, Jordan Syndrome, LA Bird, lebron3-14-3, limbo, Matzer, PistolPeteJR, trex_8063, TrueLAfan, Whopper_Sr)
Michael Jordan - 14 (2klegend, 876Stephen, 90sAllDecade, Baski, Clyde Frazier DQuinn1575, Dutchball97, Eddy_JukeZ, Gregoire, Hornet Mania, O_6, RSCD3_, SeniorWalker, SHAQ32)
Bill Russell - 3 (drza, penbeast0, Texas Chuck)
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 1 (Odinn21)
Wilt Chamberlain - 1 (ZeppelinPage)


37 total votes cast; a player would need at least 19 to have a majority of the vote. No one quite has that, so we'll eliminate the lowest vote getters and transfer 2nd-choice picks: one vote is added to Jordan, one vote added to Lebron, making the new totals:

Lebron - 19
Jordan - 15
Russell - 3

Lebron now has a majority (and fwiw, if we eliminated Russell, all three of his supporters had Lebron as their second choice, so it's a pretty secure victory). Somewhat a surprise result to me, though not too much.

[GODeron]

Can someone tell me how big was the edge that LeBron had against Jordan? I can’t find it.

Quoted from Trex:

Thru post #309 (edited AGAIN [seriously guys, leaving it right to the wire aren't we?]):

Lebron James - 18 (Ainosterhaspie, ardee, bidofo, Blackmill, Dr Positivity, eminence, freethedevil, Jaivl, Joao Saraiva, Jordan Syndrome, LA Bird, lebron3-14-3, limbo, Matzer, PistolPeteJR, trex_8063, TrueLAfan, Whopper_Sr)
Michael Jordan - 14 (2klegend, 876Stephen, 90sAllDecade, Baski, Clyde Frazier DQuinn1575, Dutchball97, Eddy_JukeZ, Gregoire, Hornet Mania, O_6, RSCD3_, SeniorWalker, SHAQ32)
Bill Russell - 3 (drza, penbeast0, Texas Chuck)
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 1 (Odinn21)
Wilt Chamberlain - 1 (ZeppelinPage)


37 total votes cast; a player would need at least 19 to have a majority of the vote. No one quite has that, so we'll eliminate the lowest vote getters and transfer 2nd-choice picks: one vote is added to Jordan, one vote added to Lebron, making the new totals:

Lebron - 19
Jordan - 15
Russell - 3

Lebron now has a majority (and fwiw, if we eliminated Russell, all three of his supporters had Lebron as their second choice, so it's a pretty secure victory). Somewhat a surprise result to me, though not too much.

Thanks brother.

[homecourtloss]

I won't vote here, but if there's anyone who would like to take a look at some 1960s and 1970s players (mostly Russell and Kareem in that thread), I can share some games and clips of them that aren't available online. Not that it will have significant role, but for someone who would like to, for example, get the idea of how Russell played it could be significant. Or for someone who would like to see differences and growth of prime Kareem (I have quite a lot Kareem games from the 1970s).

Sorry if this post is useless here, but I would like to help anyone who want to gain knowledge about older GOAT candidates.

I’m curious to know your Top 3/Top 5.

[70sFan]

I won't vote here, but if there's anyone who would like to take a look at some 1960s and 1970s players (mostly Russell and Kareem in that thread), I can share some games and clips of them that aren't available online. Not that it will have significant role, but for someone who would like to, for example, get the idea of how Russell played it could be significant. Or for someone who would like to see differences and growth of prime Kareem (I have quite a lot Kareem games from the 1970s).

Sorry if this post is useless here, but I would like to help anyone who want to gain knowledge about older GOAT candidates.

I’m curious to know your Top 3/Top 5.

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2. LeBron James
3. Bill Russell
4. Michael Jordan
5. Tim Duncan

[euroleague]

Shame, I missed this.

My vote wouldn’t have affected the outcome, with

Wilt
Kareem
MJ

But, I do feel the criteria being used is a bit flawed.

Longevity stats only mean so much, when comparing across eras - obviously with superior medical technology, less physical defenses, 3 point line spacing, and more money invested in players... careers will last longer. Look at Tom Brady.

What Kareem did, in his era of longevity, is utterly unmatched. Steroids didn’t even exist to help recovery and maintain performance, which likely helped Karl Malone and LeBron. However, I don’t value longevity that high.

In terms of career value over time, lebron’s case is very strong - but so is his minutes management and support team.

However, more importantly to me - LBJ’s best seasons have been far more replaceable than any of Wilt/Kareem/MJ’s peak. 50 points 25 rebounds a game, 72 wins, the skyhook and 25 WS... they reached heights I never saw lebron touch, despite his gaudy stats in the 09 and 18 playoffs.

The more I look into Kareem, the more I feel his peak is underrated.

Anyways, pity I missed the opportunity to actually contribute here

[penbeast0]

Steroids were used by the Russian Olympic team as early as the 1950s (drugabuse.com) and were commonly known by the early 80s so while they didn't give Kareem the weight and muscle mass advantage in his first decade, they were common in bodybuilding by the time he was late peak with the Lakers. So they may have been around to help extend his late career if he was willing to take them. I know because my cousin was a power lifter and used them heavily as early as 1982 (and has been on dialysis for the last 30 years).

[Homer38]

Shame, I missed this.

My vote wouldn’t have affected the outcome, with

Wilt
Kareem
MJ

But, I do feel the criteria being used is a bit flawed.

Longevity stats only mean so much, when comparing across eras - obviously with superior medical technology, less physical defenses, 3 point line spacing, and more money invested in players... careers will last longer. Look at Tom Brady.

What Kareem did, in his era of longevity, is utterly unmatched. Steroids didn’t even exist to help recovery and maintain performance, which likely helped Karl Malone and LeBron. However, I don’t value longevity that high.

In terms of career value over time, lebron’s case is very strong - but so is his minutes management and support team.

However, more importantly to me - LBJ’s best seasons have been far more replaceable than any of Wilt/Kareem/MJ’s peak. 50 points 25 rebounds a game, 72 wins, the skyhook and 25 WS... they reached heights I never saw lebron touch, despite his gaudy stats in the 09 and 18 playoffs.

The more I look into Kareem, the more I feel his peak is underrated.

Anyways, pity I missed the opportunity to actually contribute here

The peak of Lebron is now so underrated because of his longevity....Same thing for Kareem for many.I mean at one point,LBJ won 4 MVP in 5 years....

[Cavsfansince84]

Steroids were used by the Russian Olympic team as early as the 1950s (drugabuse.com) and were commonly known by the early 80s so while they didn't give Kareem the weight and muscle mass advantage in his first decade, they were common in bodybuilding by the time he was late peak with the Lakers. So they may have been around to help extend his late career if he was willing to take them. I know because my cousin was a power lifter and used them heavily as early as 1982 (and has been on dialysis for the last 30 years).

I think they were common in body building by the mid to late 60's from what I have read. The Pittsburgh Steelers of the 70's had a lot of guys using so I think its also fair to say they were widespread in the nfl by then. idk if I'd necessarily agree that Kareem used them but its also possible that he and other nba players were.

[euroleague]

Steroids were used by the Russian Olympic team as early as the 1950s (drugabuse.com) and were commonly known by the early 80s so while they didn't give Kareem the weight and muscle mass advantage in his first decade, they were common in bodybuilding by the time he was late peak with the Lakers. So they may have been around to help extend his late career if he was willing to take them. I know because my cousin was a power lifter and used them heavily as early as 1982 (and has been on dialysis for the last 30 years).

I think they were common in body building by the mid to late 60's from what I have read. The Pittsburgh Steelers of the 70's had a lot of guys using so I think its also fair to say they were widespread in the nfl by then. idk if I'd necessarily agree that Kareem used them but its also possible that he and other nba players were.

The steroids were used for muscle building at that time, not exercise recovery. The benefits of steroid use in sports are far more well known and honed today, to the point that they can even prevent injury and increase longevity.

Back then, steroids were used in bodybuilding and football - not endurance sports. It became a problem in athletics in the 90s, and you can see all the smashed WR from that time. Nobody will ever beat El G’s 1500m without steroids

In the 80s, guys would break their bones and just play on... they didn’t have the medical resources we do now.

[euroleague]

Shame, I missed this.

My vote wouldn’t have affected the outcome, with

Wilt
Kareem
MJ

But, I do feel the criteria being used is a bit flawed.

Longevity stats only mean so much, when comparing across eras - obviously with superior medical technology, less physical defenses, 3 point line spacing, and more money invested in players... careers will last longer. Look at Tom Brady.

What Kareem did, in his era of longevity, is utterly unmatched. Steroids didn’t even exist to help recovery and maintain performance, which likely helped Karl Malone and LeBron. However, I don’t value longevity that high.

In terms of career value over time, lebron’s case is very strong - but so is his minutes management and support team.

However, more importantly to me - LBJ’s best seasons have been far more replaceable than any of Wilt/Kareem/MJ’s peak. 50 points 25 rebounds a game, 72 wins, the skyhook and 25 WS... they reached heights I never saw lebron touch, despite his gaudy stats in the 09 and 18 playoffs.

The more I look into Kareem, the more I feel his peak is underrated.

Anyways, pity I missed the opportunity to actually contribute here

The peak of Lebron is now so underrated because of his longevity....Same thing for Kareem for many.I mean at one point,LBJ won 4 MVP in 5 years....

I am not that impressed by LBJ's peak in terms of all-time standards. He was a great defender - particularly in 2016. But, his offense was never dominant at the level of Shaq, Curry or MJ. It was the best in the league for many years, combined with some of the best perimeter defense outside of Kawhi, but his offense wasn't on that level.

Curry before Popovich came up with the "switch everything" strat, Shaq, Wilt... those guys just removed teams entire defenses.

[HeartBreakKid]

Shame, I missed this.

My vote wouldn’t have affected the outcome, with

Wilt
Kareem
MJ

But, I do feel the criteria being used is a bit flawed.

Longevity stats only mean so much, when comparing across eras - obviously with superior medical technology, less physical defenses, 3 point line spacing, and more money invested in players... careers will last longer. Look at Tom Brady.

What Kareem did, in his era of longevity, is utterly unmatched. Steroids didn’t even exist to help recovery and maintain performance, which likely helped Karl Malone and LeBron. However, I don’t value longevity that high.

In terms of career value over time, lebron’s case is very strong - but so is his minutes management and support team.

However, more importantly to me - LBJ’s best seasons have been far more replaceable than any of Wilt/Kareem/MJ’s peak. 50 points 25 rebounds a game, 72 wins, the skyhook and 25 WS... they reached heights I never saw lebron touch, despite his gaudy stats in the 09 and 18 playoffs.

The more I look into Kareem, the more I feel his peak is underrated.

Anyways, pity I missed the opportunity to actually contribute here

This is a really strange thing to say because like - well, where are the other guys around James and Brady's age? How are they doing?


Lebron never suffered a major injury in his career - 2019 was the closest. That doesn't have that much to do with advancement in surgeries and what not.