RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #5 (Tim Duncan)

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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project #5 

Post#61 » by 70sFan » Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:09 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
ZeppelinPage wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:If his scoring had the kind of impact people assume it did, then why did his team offenses do so much better when he wasn't scoring so much?


As I outlined in my post, the reason was because his teammates got significantly better. And again, the fact that he was raising the '62 team by 3 points through his scoring shows that this playstyle could work.

Doctor MJ wrote:This isn't some crazy thing to ask. We'd certainly be asking if of Jordan if we saw the same thing. It's super-super discrepant and literally any basketball analyst who hasn't seriously thought about it isn't someone to be taken that seriously. It's a question crying out for everyone to think very hard about.


Jordan played with better teammates, simple as that. Wilt was playing with multiple players during the early 60s who were all-time level bad in TS points added, and they were taking an enormous amount of shots--that is never leading to a top offense.


So Wilt scored less because he had better teammates and Jordan didn't need to score less because he had better teammates.
C'mon dude.

Bulls rosters were built much differently than Sixers ones. Jordan played with 3 defensive minded players (Pippen, Grant and old Cartwright) and Jackson built an offense around Jordan's scoring and offensive rebounding. Wilt played with 2 volume scorers in Philadelphia (Greer and Walker) and with Cunningham improvement, he got 3 volume scorers. I'm positive that had Jordan played with Dale Ellis, Dominique Wilkins and Terry Cummings, he wouldn't have scored 33 ppg either.

Re: '62 proves it works! No, the issue with someone like Wilt is not that it is better than all other possible NBA team offenses, but that it's not as good as other approaches. You can raise floors just handing the ball to Wilt, the question is what the ceiling is, and the '62 season most definitely does not address this.

ZeppelinPage said that despite Warriors roster getting worse from 1961 to 1962, their offense got better. So what Wilt did in that season clearly worked in comparison to his lesser scoring version from season before.

As to asking for ceiling - nobody questions it's a dumb strategy. Having one player taking 40 FGA is ridiculous and it's caused by lesser basketball knowledge in 1962.

You say "this is not optimal basketball, so Wilt shouldn't be rewarded for that" but I can say "this is not optimal basketball and yet Wilt made it work to some degree without good roster around him, so he deserves some praise for that". Nobody questions Jordan's offense when he played inoptimal basketball in 1987 and 1988, even though he produced worse results than Wilt in 1962.

People need to realize that Wilt led Warriors to 3rd best offense in the league desptie being asked to score 50 ppg, not because of it.

I think I've been clear on my perspective: I believe Hannum saw that Wilt's teammates weren't being used up to their potential and that the way to change that had to start with Wilt changing how he approached each possession. The essence of that change was to look at passing as an opportunity to attack the defense where they left openings.

Sure but again - this team was full of scorers, it wasn't optimal fit with volume scoring Wilt. Just because Hannum decided to make Wilt shoot less doesn't mean he believed that volume scoring Wilt wasn't good, he could believe that this particular team required different approach.

ZeppelinPage wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:That a new coach came in, made the offense play dramatically different such that "the greatest scorer in history" was not featured as a scorer, and the result was a vast improvement.


It was a vast improvement because the team got better. As I said in my post dated 1964, Hannum had made Wilt shoot less that year and the offense got worse because the team was worse.


The offense got worse by less than a point and the defense got better by nearly 7 because Hannum pushed for Wilt to dedicate himself to defense. Honestly, I don't know what you're doing trying to talk about '63-64 as some kind of failure. This was a year for Wilt to be very proud of!

But offense got worse and this was in spite of much bigger stability in roster than in 1963 (which was very tough situation for the team that just moved from Philly to SF).

I agree with you that this is one of Wilt's finest seasons, but Hannum didn't improve Warriors offense. He improved defense but I don't think it's only caused by motiviting Wilt to play defense. I also don't think this season is an example of improving team by reducing Wilt's volume - Wilt scored more per possession than in 1960, 1961 and only 3 points per100 less than in 1963. His average was "only" 36.9 ppg because 1964 Warriors played significantly slower than 1960-62 teams (almost 15 possessions less per game).

In short - Hannum improved Warriors because he stabilized roster and made them play elite defense, but he only reduced Wilt's volume scoring to small degree and that didn't improve their offense.
Hannum's next task, then, was to convince Wilt Chamberlain—the greatest scorer in history, the man who once scored 100 points in a single game, the man who holds eight of the 10 major scoring records—to let someone else shoot once in a while and to play defense with as much enthusiasm as he did offense. "For us to win," said Hannum, "Wilt has to play like Bill Russell at one end of the court and like Wilt Chamberlain at the other end of the court."

SI - Meet the New Wilt Chamberlain

Frankly it's understandable for folks to take an offensive narrative away from '63-64 because the idea of Wilt scoring less was something talked about in the press, but defense was always a focus too and it paid off big-time offering further proof that the way to win in the '60s era NBA was with a big man's defense rather than his offense if you knew at what data to look at...which by and large they didn't.

I'll add this specific Hannum quote that I think the most important in the whole piece:

Alex Hannum wrote:I realized how completely inadequate the team had become. They had learned to depend on Wilt so completely they were even incapable of beating a squad of rookies. I had to convince them that they, too, had responsibilities.


I think this is pretty Hannum's '66-67 thesis in a nutshell. He recognized that Wilt's obviously superior talent led everyone else to defer to him and become diminished through passivity. He made it his mission to make changes that would bring out the best in Wilt's teammates, and the result was major overall improvements in performance in both '63-64 and '66-67.

I wouldn't mix Hannum quotes from 1963 with 1967 results. It's very probable that 1963 Warriors team was dysfunctional for number of reasons, including overreliance on Wilt's individual offense lack of defined roles of his teammates. You can't say the same thing about 1965 and 1966 Sixers though - they were decent offensive teams despite not having prime Cunningham and less than ideal fit with multiple scorers in starting 5. I've seen enough footage from 1965-66 Sixers games to be sure that their offense wasn't static and Wilt didn't play with tunnel vision. They worked a lot in triangle and Greer initiated a lot from perimeter.

What Hannum did in 1963 was different than what he did in 1966. In 1963, he got a mess that he had to clean up and he did by stabilizing roster and defining his team identity - slowing down the pace and focusing on defense. In 1966, he got very talented team and he had to create a system that was the most optimized to this situation. He decided to turn Wilt into playmaker - in part because he had to satisfy his biggest star with touches, in part because this Sixers team didn't have any other good playmaker - Greer was decent, but Walker and Cunningham couldn't make plays at this point of their careers. Besides, he combined Wilt's strength as a post player with off-ball movement and ball movement.

Doctor MJ wrote:Re: next year. Dude, the Lakers had the best offense in history the previous year. Wilt pushes his way to the Lakers then refuses to do what the offensive architect wanted. The team doesn't win a title until several years later when Wilt finally decides to play more like the other coach wanted him to play.

We had this debate many times before but I'll repeat this again - Wilt did decided to play in 1969 playoffs the way he played in 1972. This led to Lakers having better defense in playoffs than Celtics and Wilt shooting at ridiculously low volume in high minutes. If you don't agree, then tell me how Wilt played in 1969 playoffs that is different to his 1972 self? What should he have done on basketball court to satisfy what VBK wanted from him? I'm not talking about results, I'm talking about the process. Wilt played in basically identical way - he posted up but rarely looked for scoring, he set screens and he crashed offensive glass.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project #5 

Post#62 » by limbo » Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:27 am

O_6 wrote:Question for the KG guys, how do you feel about the fact that KGs impact on both ends of the court was more based on the Mid-Range area than anywhere else? He was an elite finisher and very good rim protector, don’t get me wrong. But he didn’t attempt too many shots at the rim either by choice or because he was not strong enough. This is one aspect of his game that has kept me from putting him in the #5 mix in the past.


I don't see it being particularly relevant because if i'm trying to build a championship a team/dynasty, i'm not going to be using KG in a volume scoring role focused on interior isolation scoring anyway...

The goal is to use KG like he was in Boston, not how he was in Minnesota. KG will do most of the heavy-lifting defensively. On offense, it's good that KG is a great outside shooter, screener and passer because those skills scale greatly for raising the ceiling of an offense, so when you give him teammates that are good offensively, the relationship between them in carrying the offense should be symbiotic. KG would average his 15 FGA within the flow of the offense, the rest of his job is to set screens, space, cut etc. mostly off-ball skills.

It's the same with Russell, with likely a much smaller role offensively to boot... but people don't see to be bothered.

Is Magic or any ATG point-guard's inability to be an elite rim protector preventing you from putting them in the Top 30? Probably not, because you realize that if Magic was asked to be a rim protector on defense your team probably doesn't end up going far, because that's not how Magic should be used on the basketball court.

You're not concerned with Shaq's inability to be a high level PnR facilitator like Stockton. Because unlike Stockton, you won't be using Shaq in that role if you want to win championships. Thus, it's understood that anyone who is high on Shaq, is high because they see championship-winning potential by building around Shaq's ability to be an interior scorer/playmaker, and they're going to be fielding the rest of the roster with players that are going to complement/enhance Shaq's playstyle and cover up for his deficiencies on offense and defense.

So back to Garnett. I actually liked how he played in Boston, and that he didn't attempt more than 25-30% of his shots at the rim... Not to mention that i think his spacing was absolutely crucial on a team with Perkins and Rondo. When you're a 45% shooter from mid-range, i want you out there on the perimeter more times than not, providing spacing for my guards to attack the rim and make plays. That's how i think you want your offense to look in the modern NBA if you're looking to get the best possible outcome. Not by having Garnett play around the paint more, but having Garnett play as a super Draymond Green on offense. Then you can stick him on any team with competent perimeter talent -> Steph/Klay, Harden, LeBron, Lillard/McCollum, Wall/Beal, Dragic/Butler, Paul/SGA... even smaller fish like Brogdon/Oladipo, Fox/Bogdanovic, Rubio/Booker... whoever... You stick Garnett on that team as an offensive booster card, and that backcourt immediately jumps in effectiveness, because now they don't play with Miles Bridges, but a guy that can finish from inside and outside on a high level, average 20-25 ppg, set great screens dribble/pass the ball on a high level at his position etc.

As far as rim-protection goes on defense. He wasn't on like Gobert level, but he was still elite. The fact that offensive schemes and scoring has moved further away from the paint and teams will generally run smaller lineups with less 7-footers today, i see that as something that plays into KG's strength not vice-versa. The fact that he doesn't have to pound down low with Shaq, Duncan, Malone should be music to Garnett' and his supporters ears.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project #5 

Post#63 » by Mazter » Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:43 pm

5. Duncan
6. Magic
7. Bird

Duncan has a record 31 All League selections, was among the best on both ends for most of his career. Magic and Bird dominated the 80's, one in the East, the other in the West. The only thing keeping them from getting past Duncan and Russell (who I had originally at 6) higher is longevity, due to health and injury.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project #5 

Post#64 » by Jordan Syndrome » Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:48 pm

Mazter wrote:5. Duncan
6. Magic
7. Bird

Duncan has a record 31 All League selections, was among the best on both ends for most of his career. Magic and Bird dominated the 80's, one in the East, the other in the West. The only thing keeping them from getting past Duncan and Russell (who I had originally at 6) higher is longevity, due to health and injury.


I dont think Magic or Bird should be getting much traction yet. If they are, so should Hakeem and Dirk.

Dirks prime was 5 more seasons and he was nearly as good as Bird offensively.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project #5 

Post#65 » by PistolPeteJR » Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:51 pm

Dr Positivity wrote:
limbo wrote:Question for those who rank Duncan notably higher than Hakeem.

What's the rationale? Is it mostly a tail-end longevity thing and/or winning?

Because as far as i can tell, both seem extremely similar in what they gave and could give to you offensively in most areas. Both their prime and career production as scorers/passers seem to match up, with Duncan maybe bein a slightly better passer at his peak, while Hakeem being a slightly better postseason scorer (especially in '94 and '95).

Hakeem is also widely regarded as one of the best defensive players of all-time, so i assume Duncan is not making any ground over him on that side of the court for most of you.

And even if we accept that Duncan is ahead due to better longevity and winning, shouldn't then Hakeem be somewhere in the vicinity after Duncan due to similar profiles, or is that longevity gap so big that you would rather squeak Wilt, Shaq, Magic, Bird and maybe someone else as well ahead of Hakeem?

Idk, the dynamic of Duncan/Hakeem being separated by tail-end longevity being enough to justify putting a guy like Magic in between who is notorious for having weak longevity just seems weird to me... If you're someone who values what Duncan brings to your team over what Magic brings, then the same should probably apply with Hakeem vs. Magic?

But maybe that's just me.


For me Hakeem peaks as high as Duncan but he has less years at that level. I feel Hakeem was headed for a non top 20 career up until 93. And even within his peak on offense, I believe his defense declined by 95 and 96. I only having playing at his peak offensive level with ATG defense for 93 and 94. The earlier years he is ATG on defense but worse on offense, then later he maintains his great offense but is worse on defense.

I also value Duncan's intangibles more than Hakeem, I don't mind Hakeem's but Duncan's impact on Spurs culture is otherworldly.


This is basically where I stand as well, and I love me some Hakeem.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project #5 

Post#66 » by Mazter » Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:57 pm

Jordan Syndrome wrote:
Mazter wrote:5. Duncan
6. Magic
7. Bird

Duncan has a record 31 All League selections, was among the best on both ends for most of his career. Magic and Bird dominated the 80's, one in the East, the other in the West. The only thing keeping them from getting past Duncan and Russell (who I had originally at 6) higher is longevity, due to health and injury.


I dont think Magic or Bird should be getting much traction yet. If they are, so should Hakeem and Dirk.

Dirks prime was 5 more seasons and he was nearly as good as Bird offensively.

Well for me they do. Dirk's prime might have been longer, but for me it was not better. Hakeem and Dirk would probably be the ones rounding out my top 10-12.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project #5 

Post#67 » by Jordan Syndrome » Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:01 pm

5. Tim Duncan
6. Kevin Garnett
7. Wilt Chamberlain
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project #5 

Post#68 » by Jordan Syndrome » Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:18 pm

Mazter wrote:
Jordan Syndrome wrote:
Mazter wrote:5. Duncan
6. Magic
7. Bird

Duncan has a record 31 All League selections, was among the best on both ends for most of his career. Magic and Bird dominated the 80's, one in the East, the other in the West. The only thing keeping them from getting past Duncan and Russell (who I had originally at 6) higher is longevity, due to health and injury.


I dont think Magic or Bird should be getting much traction yet. If they are, so should Hakeem and Dirk.

Dirks prime was 5 more seasons and he was nearly as good as Bird offensively.

Well for me they do. Dirk's prime might have been longer, but for me it was not better. Hakeem and Dirk would probably be the ones rounding out my top 10-12.


Quick Glance:

In Dirks prime (01-14), he anchored the 4th, 1st, 1st, 1st, 4th, 1st, 2nd, 8th, 5th, 10th, 8th, 14th, 3rd ranked offenses.

Dirks 5.5 OBPM and 125.4 OWS over this stretch is comparable to Birds 5.5 OBPM and 75.1 OWS over this stretch. The fact Dirk logged more than 10,000 more minutes is huge. To put these numbers in perspective, Dirk logged 67% more Offensive Win Shares than Bird and 40% more minutes, meaning on a per-minute basis, Dirk was more impactful offensively than Bird.

The post-season tells a similar story, with Birds 5.8 OBPM slightly ahead of Dirks 5.3 OBPM but Dirks 17.3 OWS outmatching Birds 13.0 OWS in less minutes (6k more Bird, 5.5k for Dirk).

Dirks post-season blemishes are a very real cause for concern but the counterpoint to this is the fact the Mavericks played in a much more competitive era in the early 2000s. The Mavs were outmached by Duncans Spurs and Adelman's Kings on multiple occasions.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project #5 

Post#69 » by mailmp » Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:00 pm

It is also not as if Bird is devoid of postseason blemishes, lol
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project #5 

Post#70 » by Mazter » Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:02 pm

Jordan Syndrome wrote:Quick Glance:

In Dirks prime (01-14), he anchored the 4th, 1st, 1st, 1st, 4th, 1st, 2nd, 8th, 5th, 10th, 8th, 14th, 3rd ranked offenses.

Dirks 5.5 OBPM and 125.4 OWS over this stretch is comparable to Birds 5.5 OBPM and 75.1 OWS over this stretch. The fact Dirk logged more than 10,000 more minutes is huge. To put these numbers in perspective, Dirk logged 67% more Offensive Win Shares than Bird and 40% more minutes, meaning on a per-minute basis, Dirk was more impactful offensively than Bird.

The post-season tells a similar story, with Birds 5.8 OBPM slightly ahead of Dirks 5.3 OBPM but Dirks 17.3 OWS outmatching Birds 13.0 OWS in less minutes (6k more Bird, 5.5k for Dirk).

Dirks post-season blemishes are a very real cause for concern but the counterpoint to this is the fact the Mavericks played in a much more competitive era in the early 2000s. The Mavs were outmached by Duncans Spurs and Adelman's Kings on multiple occasions.

True, But is that really a big of a difference with Bird and Magic:
Bird -> 2nd, 5th, 4th, 6th, 6th, 6th, 3rd, 3rd , 1st
Magic -> 1st, 7th, 6th, 1st, 5th, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 5th

Besides that, there is also defense. Despite Magic never being a super defender he never hindered team defense. The Lakers were steadily a top 10 defense, while the Mavs were more out than in the top 10, spiking only once to the 5th defense.

The whole 6th to about 15th is almost a pack for me. They are close to each other. This is the first time I participate in any discussion past 5th. So you never know, I could still change my mind. I'm gonna take a look into it.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project #5 

Post#71 » by Texas Chuck » Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:04 pm

Jordan Syndrome wrote:
Mazter wrote:5. Duncan
6. Magic
7. Bird

Duncan has a record 31 All League selections, was among the best on both ends for most of his career. Magic and Bird dominated the 80's, one in the East, the other in the West. The only thing keeping them from getting past Duncan and Russell (who I had originally at 6) higher is longevity, due to health and injury.


I dont think Magic or Bird should be getting much traction yet. If they are, so should Hakeem and Dirk.

Dirks prime was 5 more seasons and he was nearly as good as Bird offensively.


I think Dirk was better than Bird offensively. Ducks.

I think too often when we talk about Dirk we hear phrases like well the only thing he did better than player X is shoot/score. Which is reductive and shows a real lack of understanding how offenses work. Obviously Larry Bird is one of the greatest passers of all-time. His vision, his creativity, his size, his ability to throw any pass with either hand. Just an absolute wizard and a joy to watch. Dirk probably still created more wide open looks for his teammates mostly in possessions where he picks up no stat in a box score. I mean forget even Nash. A Jason Terry/Dirk PNR meant Terry was going to shoot a wide open 15 footer, Dirk was going to shoot an open 18 footer, or a teammate was going to shoot an open corner 3. Figure how how to slow that down, fine Dirk moves to the high post with a live dribble and now you're screwed again. Typically guarded by a big who has no hope of contesting the jumper anyway and now is in danger of Dirk driving past him(see 11 Finals in 2 key moments), or maybe you try a small because hey that one time it worked for GSW--he just laughs and drains FT jumpers. But if you double him he always made the right pass and on time. Dirk just didn't turn the ball over.


I still have Bird ahead of Dirk though because I think the whole package of Bird at his best is better than anything we saw from Dirk and we have multiple Bird years like that. But I'm glad it's a debate.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project #5 

Post#72 » by Ambrose » Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:05 pm

5. Tim Duncan-I had him at #4. He has a case for the 2nd best defensive player of all time, he was talented offensively, he was the the most coachable star ever, and led a 19 year run that has been unmatched in terms of winning.

6. Magic Johnson-The offensive GOAT. Perfectly able to balance scoring/playmaking based on the needs of the team, and have unreal impact on the game. I view him as a tremendous leader in his later years as well. Defensively, he wasn't great but like Luka today it's easier to hide guys with excellent size/length than those without it.

7. Wilt Chamberlain-Amongst the arguments thus far I think the pro-Wilt crowd have done a good job of winning me over. I'll bump him over Hakeem for now.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project #5 

Post#73 » by limbo » Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:09 pm

Votes:

1. Kevin Garnett

2. Tim Duncan

3. Hakeem Olajuwon


All three players very similar in profile. All three have a great case for being among the Top 5 greatest defenders of all-time. Each has their own advantage over the other. Hakeem is the best isolation scorer, Duncan has the best longevity/consistency and actually won the most in real time, and Garnett has the best portability/scalability due to having the most diverse skillset.

Ultimately, i feel like Garnett benefited the least by circumstances outside his control (horrible FO, bad coaches, bad teammates, lack of foresight on how to build around his skillset offensively, injuries etc.), yet he still managed to come out the end looking just as good as Duncan in most years, and even better in some... If i was a GM today and choosing between the three guys here, i'd very likely be going with Garnett.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project #5 

Post#74 » by Texas Chuck » Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:15 pm

Jordan Syndrome wrote:
Dirks post-season blemishes are a very real cause for concern but the counterpoint to this is the fact the Mavericks played in a much more competitive era in the early 2000s. The Mavs were outmached by Duncans Spurs and Adelman's Kings on multiple occasions.


Do you mean Dirk or the Mavs? Because while Dirk does have the 06 Finals followed by the 07 1st round where he deserves much of the blame, mostly he performs at an absurd level while his teammates really wet the bed. Dirk is brilliant in the playoffs in 04 against the Kings and all his celebrated offensive teammates(in the best offense ever :roll: ) were awful. Dirk is 27/12 with 3 blocks on 45/47/86 with 6 turnovers in 5 games. Everyone else is under 50% TS.

Or look at Dirk from 08-10 sort of the lost years for the Mavs after the 07 collapse:

27/12/4 59% TS
27/10/3 64% TS
27/8/3 64% TS

He's not fallen off offensively at all. We do see his rebounding numbers drop as he ages, but he can still really go. Let's look at his best teammate, Jason Terry:

16/5 60% ts
14/2 51% TS
13/2 50% TS

And this from a guy who in the RS was a consistent 17/4 57% TS guy.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project #5 

Post#75 » by Odinn21 » Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:18 pm

Ambrose wrote:6. Magic Johnson-Perfectly able to balance scoring/playmaking based on the needs of the team

One of the overlooked things about Magic. His passing was goat level. His ability to lead an offense as well. All these kind of make us overlook he also had a great scoring power, either efficiency or volume, even sometimes both.

When he became the team's halfcourt scoring focus in 1987, he scored 26.2 ppg on .590 ts against the Celtics in the Finals.
Then 21.1 ppg on .676 ts against the Pistons in '88 Finals.
27.3 ppg on .692 ts against the Blazers in '89 first round.
30.2 ppg on .616 ts against the Suns in '90 second round.
25.8 ppg on .688 ts against the Warriors in '91 second round.

Surely he wasn't one of the greatest scorers in the game. But he definitely had more scoring than 19-20 ppg in him.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project #5 

Post#76 » by TrueLAfan » Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:38 pm

5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Hakeem Olajuwon


PistolPeteJR wrote:
Dr Positivity wrote:
limbo wrote:Question for those who rank Duncan notably higher than Hakeem.

What's the rationale? Is it mostly a tail-end longevity thing and/or winning?

Because as far as i can tell, both seem extremely similar in what they gave and could give to you offensively in most areas. Both their prime and career production as scorers/passers seem to match up, with Duncan maybe bein a slightly better passer at his peak, while Hakeem being a slightly better postseason scorer (especially in '94 and '95).

Hakeem is also widely regarded as one of the best defensive players of all-time, so i assume Duncan is not making any ground over him on that side of the court for most of you.

And even if we accept that Duncan is ahead due to better longevity and winning, shouldn't then Hakeem be somewhere in the vicinity after Duncan due to similar profiles, or is that longevity gap so big that you would rather squeak Wilt, Shaq, Magic, Bird and maybe someone else as well ahead of Hakeem?

Idk, the dynamic of Duncan/Hakeem being separated by tail-end longevity being enough to justify putting a guy like Magic in between who is notorious for having weak longevity just seems weird to me... If you're someone who values what Duncan brings to your team over what Magic brings, then the same should probably apply with Hakeem vs. Magic?

But maybe that's just me.


For me Hakeem peaks as high as Duncan but he has less years at that level. I feel Hakeem was headed for a non top 20 career up until 93. And even within his peak on offense, I believe his defense declined by 95 and 96. I only having playing at his peak offensive level with ATG defense for 93 and 94. The earlier years he is ATG on defense but worse on offense, then later he maintains his great offense but is worse on defense.

I also value Duncan's intangibles more than Hakeem, I don't mind Hakeem's but Duncan's impact on Spurs culture is otherworldly.


Yup. This.

This is basically where I stand as well, and I love me some Hakeem.


Me too. I have them 2-3 spots apart, and it's all about seasons 14-18. Duncan pulls a bit ahead. Close though. Two of my favorite players.

I want to start with Duncan vs. Wilt here--specifically Wilt. Wilt Chamberlain was extraordinary. Literally. I think difficulties in judging him often spring from an inability to comprehend some of his athletic qualities. As far as I’m concerned, the question about the greatest athlete in the history of the NBA is a choice for #2 behind Wilt. Really, nobody is remotely close. And I think he was genuinely intrigued by basketball, although he saw it as a means to end—to showcase himself. In other words, he had improper motivation most of the time. He also had his share of bad luck and self-inflicted issues, but his story is a fascinating one.

The question—kind of a sad one—IMO, is what would have happened if Wilt had had anything like the front office and coaching consistency Duncan had. Wilt liked to be coached; he was much less of an Alpha personality on the court than off. And, while I respect the disagreements that go on (and are occurring now) about Wilt’s value as a volume scorer, you have to recognize that Wilt was asked to completely change his game not once but twice in his career, with extraordinary results--the Sixers and Lakers set league records for wins and won titles.

But we are talking about what happened here, not what if, not what could be. (The only player I’m going to marginally shift that for is Magic, in a pick or two.), So I go with Duncan. Duncan had those fundamental skills—but I don’t think people realize that his game shifted as he got older. His numbers are like a wall of monotony, especially per 100 possessions or per36. He was able to adapt—and Pop was able to make adjustments for him—that kept his relative value at or close to that high level even when he lost some of his physical abilities. Many people on here aren’t old enough to know/remember the “quick” Tim Duncan, the one with the outstanding mobility. He guarded 3s with some frequency in his first 4-5 years. As he got older, he got stiffer and more upright, less able to crouch and step outside as often on D. But even late in his career, TD was still switching well and getting good position and making smart decisions on and off the court. (Dropping 20 pounds in 2013 made him so obviously better it was kinda amazing.) And Pop helped him maintain his high level a lot; that was something that Wilt did not have, and those last four or five effective years—when Duncan was at 85-90% of his peak level and playing 29 mpg in 90% of his team’s games—gives him the push over Wilt for me.

When you get past Duncan/Wilt … for me, we go from a two player discussion to about 4/5 equal players in Hakeem, Shaq, Garnett, Magic, and Bird. The arguments and problems start to get more convoluted for me at this point. That will be fun. 8-)
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project #5 

Post#77 » by Jordan Syndrome » Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:52 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
Jordan Syndrome wrote:
Dirks post-season blemishes are a very real cause for concern but the counterpoint to this is the fact the Mavericks played in a much more competitive era in the early 2000s. The Mavs were outmached by Duncans Spurs and Adelman's Kings on multiple occasions.


Do you mean Dirk or the Mavs? Because while Dirk does have the 06 Finals followed by the 07 1st round where he deserves much of the blame, mostly he performs at an absurd level while his teammates really wet the bed. Dirk is brilliant in the playoffs in 04 against the Kings and all his celebrated offensive teammates(in the best offense ever :roll: ) were awful. Dirk is 27/12 with 3 blocks on 45/47/86 with 6 turnovers in 5 games. Everyone else is under 50% TS.

Or look at Dirk from 08-10 sort of the lost years for the Mavs after the 07 collapse:

27/12/4 59% TS
27/10/3 64% TS
27/8/3 64% TS

He's not fallen off offensively at all. We do see his rebounding numbers drop as he ages, but he can still really go. Let's look at his best teammate, Jason Terry:

16/5 60% ts
14/2 51% TS
13/2 50% TS

And this from a guy who in the RS was a consistent 17/4 57% TS guy.


Dirks first series against the Kings is what I was getting at.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project #5 

Post#78 » by Texas Chuck » Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:01 pm

Jordan Syndrome wrote:Dirks first series against the Kings is what I was getting at.


Yeah that wasn't good. He also wasn't good against Houston in the first round in 05 before the Nash revenge series, but the team pulled it out so he escapes criticism there.

The problem in those 3 straight Kings/Mavs series though was Mike Bibby either played Nash to a draw(1x) or outplayed him(2x) in a matchup the Mavs had to win to have a chance against a much deeper team. And had Raef not injured Webber its possible the Kings sweep all those, although Webber was absolutely horrible in 04 but it didn't matter because Dallas outside Dirk was just trash. Actually almost everyone but Dirk and Bibby were trash in that series which is odd considering those were both offensive juggernauts.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project #5 

Post#79 » by Odinn21 » Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:13 pm

Dr Positivity wrote:
limbo wrote:Question for those who rank Duncan notably higher than Hakeem.

What's the rationale? Is it mostly a tail-end longevity thing and/or winning?

Because as far as i can tell, both seem extremely similar in what they gave and could give to you offensively in most areas. Both their prime and career production as scorers/passers seem to match up, with Duncan maybe bein a slightly better passer at his peak, while Hakeem being a slightly better postseason scorer (especially in '94 and '95).

Hakeem is also widely regarded as one of the best defensive players of all-time, so i assume Duncan is not making any ground over him on that side of the court for most of you.

And even if we accept that Duncan is ahead due to better longevity and winning, shouldn't then Hakeem be somewhere in the vicinity after Duncan due to similar profiles, or is that longevity gap so big that you would rather squeak Wilt, Shaq, Magic, Bird and maybe someone else as well ahead of Hakeem?

Idk, the dynamic of Duncan/Hakeem being separated by tail-end longevity being enough to justify putting a guy like Magic in between who is notorious for having weak longevity just seems weird to me... If you're someone who values what Duncan brings to your team over what Magic brings, then the same should probably apply with Hakeem vs. Magic?

But maybe that's just me.


For me Hakeem peaks as high as Duncan but he has less years at that level. I feel Hakeem was headed for a non top 20 career up until 93. And even within his peak on offense, I believe his defense declined by 95 and 96. I only having playing at his peak offensive level with ATG defense for 93 and 94. The earlier years he is ATG on defense but worse on offense, then later he maintains his great offense but is worse on defense.

I also value Duncan's intangibles more than Hakeem, I don't mind Hakeem's but Duncan's impact on Spurs culture is otherworldly.

I think Olajuwon is the player whose career perception had the most drastic value increase with a coach.
I hope my wording is proper because I am not saying Olajuwon benefited from a coach the most. What I'm saying is Rudy T becoming the Rockets head coach is the most drastic increase for a player's career value.
Without Rudy T, maybe Olajuwon would've never unlocked his true peak level.
The issue with per75 numbers;
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Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project #5 

Post#80 » by TrueLAfan » Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:39 pm

Odinn21 wrote:I think Olajuwon is the player whose career perception had the most drastic value increase with a coach.
I hope my wording is proper because I am not saying Olajuwon benefited from a coach the most. What I'm saying is Rudy T becoming the Rockets head coach is the most drastic increase for a player's career value.
Without Rudy T, maybe Olajuwon would've never unlocked his true peak level.


Great point. I really think the idea that Hakeem’s basketball skills all came from his footwork dominated the thinking of Don Chaney and Bill Fitch. They just seemed confused by Ralph Sampson's ball handling, and tried to make Hakeem play like an old school inside finisher rather than as part of an offense. He would bust out with a big 6 or 7 assist game, and the staff treated those like infections that had to be stopped. Rudy really let Hakeem get the ball as a focal point of an offense, rather than someone who you dumped it into for scoring. I think Hakeem could have done that a few years earlier, too—maybe not in his first 2-3 years, but probably after that—and shown himself to be a more complete and valuable player than he was (and he was still a top 5-8 player most of his first 8 seasons).
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