OT Bears 2019/20 season

[Susan]

so trade for fitzpatrick?

Why? The Bears already have a "fitzpatrick" starting for them, name Foles. Fitzpatrick would be redundant.

It was mostly a joke but Fitzpatrick is definitely an upgrade

nah. BDN has a ring, Fitz has a beard.

[Coldchi]

The Bears needed 4th quarter miracles to beat DET and ATL, two terrible teams. Wins against Tampa and CAR were more convincing.

DET and ATL are both better than their record. Detroit beat the Saints and ATL blew out the Vikings. They aren't good but they aren't bottom feeders. Entire NFC east might be worse than both.

I agree both teams are better then there current records and would flat out win then east

[Grodoboldo]

The Bears needed 4th quarter miracles to beat DET and ATL, two terrible teams. Wins against Tampa and CAR were more convincing.

DET and ATL are both better than their record. Detroit beat the Saints and ATL blew out the Vikings. They aren't good but they aren't bottom feeders. Entire NFC east might be worse than both.

I agree both teams are better then there current records and would flat out win then east

Watch on YouTube

[dougthonus]

Interesting thought in the NFC.

If the Bears don't get the bye week, their best possible finish is best wild card team. That would put them against the winner of the NFC East which will be the weakest playoff team. If the Seahawks hang on for #1 overall seed, then the Bears are better off losing to the Packers in the division than winning.

[The Explorer]

Many pundits and sites have the bears 11th in power rankings, behind Tampa and Green Bay. Htf does that even makes sense when Bears just beat Tampa, the team that blew out the Packers? The Packers have had pretty much have faced the same teams as the bears thus far, and everyone's touting them. The national media is disgusting.

You are what your record is.

Its ok. This team needs to know they still have work to do to convince people. Oh and they do.

And I love being the underdog

A few convincing wins will change that.

A few convincing wins will do that. The TB win and the Carolina win both helped convince people that the Bears are better than a lucky fluke team. People now at least think they're legit. Just not 5-1 legit. If the Bears go 3-0 or 2-1 over the next 3 games, I think people will feel much stronger about the Bears.

If they got 1-2, then this 9-12ish type ranking will probably be pretty reasonable. If they go 0-3, then people will probably start looking at them more like a middle of the pack team.

The same could be said for most of the other top teams though. Tennessee had to come from behind to barely squeak by a bad Texans team. Packers have beat bad NFC East teams. Seahawks have just as many question marks on defense as the bears do on offense. The singling out of the bears in the media when other teams are just as flawed is problematic. Jason La confora is known to be a hater, there have been articles written on some of his sour relationships with the bears front office.

[dougthonus]

The same could be said for most of the other top teams though. Tennessee had to come from behind to barely squeak by a bad Texans team. Packers have beat bad NFC East teams. Seahawks have just as many question marks on defense as the bears do on offense. The singling out of the bears in the media when other teams are just as flawed is problematic. Jason La confora is known to be a hater, there have been articles written on some of his sour relationships with the bears front office.

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/nfl/sagarin/

Sagarin ratings aren't bullet proof and are probably pretty basic by regression standards, but:

Bears are 16th in predictor rating
Bears are 13th in golden mean
Bears are 8th in recent (predictor but weigh more recent games more)

Ignore fans, media people, editorialists etc.

People whom actually set betting lines and bet professionally and have no personal stake in anything at all except getting the right answer because it is their livelihood at stake are going to probably rate Bears somewhere between 10-15 right now, because they're doing more sophisticated versions of the above.

[patryk7754]

division got easier thanks to the vikings trading Ngakoue to the ravens

[patryk7754]

Apparently, Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap have been unhappy with their playing time with the Bengals. Although he's not the All-Pro he used to be, Atkins would still be an upgrade over Nicolas and he would help improve our run game by a lot. Jurrell Casey went for a 7th rounder so I imagine Atkins would at most cost a 5th rounder. Would be a great pick up

[chicagoballer]

AB to the Buccs. I dont know if ring chasing was such a thing until LeBron came around. to join a squad with godwin, evans, and gronk seem like few touches.

[dougthonus]

AB to the Buccs. I dont know if ring chasing was such a thing until LeBron came around. to join a squad with godwin, evans, and gronk seem like few touches.

Would guess he formed a good relationship with Brady in his brief stay in NE and went their for that reason. Brady seemed to have his back to some degree there.

[dice]

Why? The Bears already have a "fitzpatrick" starting for them, name Foles. Fitzpatrick would be redundant.

It was mostly a joke but Fitzpatrick is definitely an upgrade

nah. BDN has a ring, Fitz has a beard.

the only reason it wouldn't be an upgrade is age. and yet, fitzpatrick has been having the best year of either of their careers through 6 games

[Susan]

It was mostly a joke but Fitzpatrick is definitely an upgrade

nah. BDN has a ring, Fitz has a beard.

the only reason it wouldn't be an upgrade is age. and yet, fitzpatrick has been having the best year of either of their careers through 6 games

https://stathead.com/football/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Nick+Foles&player_id1_select=Nick+Foles&player_id1=FoleNi00&idx=pfr__players&p1yrfrom=2013&player_id2_hint=Ryan+Fitzpatrick&player_id2_select=Ryan+Fitzpatrick&player_id2=FitzRy00&idx=pfr__players&p2yrfrom=2020

Nah. That could not be further from the truth.

[NZB2323]

I feel like the Bears aren’t that good but every team in the league has flaws and no one is invincible this year.

[dougthonus]

nah. BDN has a ring, Fitz has a beard.

the only reason it wouldn't be an upgrade is age. and yet, fitzpatrick has been having the best year of either of their careers through 6 games

https://stathead.com/football/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Nick+Foles&player_id1_select=Nick+Foles&player_id1=FoleNi00&idx=pfr__players&p1yrfrom=2013&player_id2_hint=Ryan+Fitzpatrick&player_id2_select=Ryan+Fitzpatrick&player_id2=FitzRy00&idx=pfr__players&p2yrfrom=2020

Nah. That could not be further from the truth.

Kind of Silly to compare one season of Nick Foles 7 years ago to Fitzpatrick now and think that means anything.

If you go back over those seasons as a whole, you get this though:
https://stathead.com/football/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&player_id1_hint=Ryan+Fitzpatrick&player_id1_select=Ryan+Fitzpatrick&player_id1=FitzRy00&p1yrfrom=2013&p1yrto=2020&player_id2_hint=Nick+Foles&player_id2_select=Nick+Foles&player_id2=FoleNi00&p2yrfrom=2013&p2yrto=2020

Not a dominant difference, but Foles still comes out ahead, but backs up the idea that these guys are pretty similar. If we're chasing unicorn years where a guy just had a great run and then ignore the rest of their career as if it didn't happen there are all kinds of great QBs. Hell, we could just have started Trubisky and waited for him to perform like two years ago.

[dice]

nah. BDN has a ring, Fitz has a beard.

the only reason it wouldn't be an upgrade is age. and yet, fitzpatrick has been having the best year of either of their careers through 6 games

https://stathead.com/football/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Nick+Foles&player_id1_select=Nick+Foles&player_id1=FoleNi00&idx=pfr__players&p1yrfrom=2013&player_id2_hint=Ryan+Fitzpatrick&player_id2_select=Ryan+Fitzpatrick&player_id2=FitzRy00&idx=pfr__players&p2yrfrom=2020

Nah. That could not be further from the truth.

QBR is the closest thing to "the truth" you're gonna get. it is the gold standard. every single play is evaluated based on how much it increases/decreases the team's chance of scoring on that possession. as such, context matters. for example, an interception on 3rd and long is not nearly as consequential as an interception on 2nd and short. a 9 yard completion on 3rd and 10 helps the QB rating but appropriately HURTS the QBR

so how 'bout you check on that QBR thing and get back to me. particularly for this season and for each player's career as a whole. both has played for a variety of teams, so neither has benefitted from playing in a system suited to their abilities for a long stretch. as such, save for a single nice postseason run for foles, fitzpatrick has had the marginally more impressive career. particularly given the extreme amount of bouncing around the league he has done

i won't even bring up the injury thing, but i will note that fitzpatrick has started 145 games in his career. foles? 57

[TheStig]

I feel like the Bears aren’t that good but every team in the league has flaws and no one is invincible this year.

I feel like they have a underrated coach. Nagy has this team outperforming time and time again. He had them in the playoffs and playoff race with Mitch. I think he does a great job and his teams do much better than the talent. I think the defense is pretty good but the offensive talent is dreadful. With an average coach, I think they're 3-3 with an average coach.

[Susan]

the only reason it wouldn't be an upgrade is age. and yet, fitzpatrick has been having the best year of either of their careers through 6 games

https://stathead.com/football/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Nick+Foles&player_id1_select=Nick+Foles&player_id1=FoleNi00&idx=pfr__players&p1yrfrom=2013&player_id2_hint=Ryan+Fitzpatrick&player_id2_select=Ryan+Fitzpatrick&player_id2=FitzRy00&idx=pfr__players&p2yrfrom=2020

Nah. That could not be further from the truth.

Kind of Silly to compare one season of Nick Foles 7 years ago to Fitzpatrick now and think that means anything.

If you go back over those seasons as a whole, you get this though:
https://stathead.com/football/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&player_id1_hint=Ryan+Fitzpatrick&player_id1_select=Ryan+Fitzpatrick&player_id1=FitzRy00&p1yrfrom=2013&p1yrto=2020&player_id2_hint=Nick+Foles&player_id2_select=Nick+Foles&player_id2=FoleNi00&p2yrfrom=2013&p2yrto=2020

Not a dominant difference, but Foles still comes out ahead, but backs up the idea that these guys are pretty similar. If we're chasing unicorn years where a guy just had a great run and then ignore the rest of their career as if it didn't happen there are all kinds of great QBs. Hell, we could just have started Trubisky and waited for him to perform like two years ago.

This is a stupid discussion. Fitzpatrick isn't getting traded and the Bears aren't moving off of Foles this season.

and yet, fitzpatrick has been having the best year of either of their careers through 6 games

Kind of Silly to compare one season of Nick Foles 7 years ago to Fitzpatrick now and think that means anything.

Fitzpatrick is well known for being extremely hot and extremely cold. Taking a 6 game sample size and ignoring his decade + career is a real goofball way to look at the world. Give me the guy with the 27 TD/2INT season and the Big Fat Super Bowl Ring on his finger.

[dice]

Fitzpatrick is well known for being extremely hot and extremely cold.

so is your new buddy "BDN"

few have had a more up and down career than nick foles

Taking a 6 game sample size and ignoring his decade + career is a real goofball way to look at the world.

yeah, well, nobody did that, strawman. i was merely using this season to suggest that fitzpatrick's age is not showing. i then used a much BROADER look at their careers, which you summarily ignored

Give me the guy with the 27 TD/2INT season and the Big Fat Super Bowl Ring on his finger.

was the irony just dripping from your fingertips as you typed this giving the statement you made IN THE LAST SENTENCE?

taking a single season and ignoring his nearly decade long career is a real goofball way to look at it

twice in the same post, in back to back comments, you projected arguments onto others that apply to you and your QB

of COURSE anyone would take the high point of foles's career over any of the much lower high points of fitzpatrick's career. but that has very little bearing on the argument regarding who would be the better QB for a team NOW. frankly, it's not a particularly enticing choice. a 38 year old journeyman vs. a guy who can't cleanly beat out gardner minshew or mitch trubisky

[dougthonus]

This is a stupid discussion. Fitzpatrick isn't getting traded and the Bears aren't moving off of Foles this season.

Agreed.

Fitzpatrick is well known for being extremely hot and extremely cold. Taking a 6 game sample size and ignoring his decade + career is a real goofball way to look at the world. Give me the guy with the 27 TD/2INT season and the Big Fat Super Bowl Ring on his finger.

Yeah, I don't like Fitzpatrick either, but looking at a season 7 years ago and using it as a benchmark today in sports when you have had 7 years since then to show that it isn't repeatable, sustainable or expected in the future is a terrible way to look at anything.

Like I said, you could just group their aggregate numbers and Foles comes out on top. I agree we're not going to get Fitzpatrick, and we shouldn't want to get Fitzpatrick, and there's no reason to think Fitzpatrick is better.

[dice]

This is a stupid discussion. Fitzpatrick isn't getting traded and the Bears aren't moving off of Foles this season.

Agreed.

Fitzpatrick is well known for being extremely hot and extremely cold. Taking a 6 game sample size and ignoring his decade + career is a real goofball way to look at the world. Give me the guy with the 27 TD/2INT season and the Big Fat Super Bowl Ring on his finger.

Yeah, I don't like Fitzpatrick either, but looking at a season 7 years ago and using it as a benchmark today in sports when you have had 7 years since then to show that it isn't repeatable, sustainable or expected in the future is a terrible way to look at anything.

Like I said, you could just group their aggregate numbers and Foles comes out on top. I agree we're not going to get Fitzpatrick, and we shouldn't want to get Fitzpatrick, and there's no reason to think Fitzpatrick is better.

age 30+ career QBR (since its advent in 2006):

71.9 brees (9201 non-handoff snaps - age 27-41)
71.2 brady (8446 - age 29-43)
67.9 rodgers (7233 - age 25-37)
66.9 wilson (5051 - age 24-32)
64.7 big ben (7689 - age 24-38)
63.0 ryan (7874 - age 23-35)
62.1 rivers (8576 - age 25-39)
60.3 cousins (3718 - age 24-32)

57.3 stafford (6554 - age 21-32)
56.9 newton (5375 - age 22-31)
54.6 fitz (5687 - age 26-38)
54.3 flacco (6737 - age 23-35)
52.2 tannehill (3960 - age 24-32)
52.2 foles (2091 - age 23-31)
51.5 smith (5721 - age 21-36)
50.9 keenum (2262 - age 25-31)
50.7 dalton (5194 - age 24-33)