OT: COVID-19 thread #3

[dougthonus]

with a quarter of their population. we still pollute at double the per capita rate that china does. and it was the US, not china, that pulled out of the paris agreement

Using per capita numbers also masks that one of the huge problems for the world is the population of China and India.

the US polluted a lot in building it's economy in the industrial revolution and beyond. now the effects on the planet are obvious and we're asking china to restrict their emissions just as THEIR economy is growing rapidly. they SHOULD, of course, but in a way it's grossly unfair

Yes and No. Part of the problem with this comparison is that we didn't know the results of what we were doing at the time and the other part is that we hadn't yet developed a lot of technology to avoid doing it at the time. We both know the affects now and have other reasonable options now, so it isn't really an apples to apples comparison.

There is probably some unfairness to it, I think we continued to do bad things (even today) and well after we knew the affects and had alternatives that were pricier, but China isn't starting in the same spot we were 100 years ago, they could be much cleaner than they are fairly trivially, same with India. Of course, the whole world will pay the increased cost of that, not just China, as we rely on China for cheap goods.

[dice]

with a quarter of their population. we still pollute at double the per capita rate that china does. and it was the US, not china, that pulled out of the paris agreement

Using per capita numbers also masks that one of the huge problems for the world is the population of China and India.

raw population size is a terrible measure of whether a nation has a population problem. it disregards habitable land mass and population density. the average chinese household has only 3 people in it (world average is 4, USA 2.6, india 4.6), so there is most certainly not a population issue that china has to do better dealing with. as you well know, they have highly draconian measures to restrict population growth. india is not a big problem either. it's middle eastern and african nations that are the problem

the US polluted a lot in building it's economy in the industrial revolution and beyond. now the effects on the planet are obvious and we're asking china to restrict their emissions just as THEIR economy is growing rapidly. they SHOULD, of course, but in a way it's grossly unfair

Yes and No. Part of the problem with this comparison is that we didn't know the results of what we were doing at the time and the other part is that we hadn't yet developed a lot of technology to avoid doing it at the time. We both know the affects now and have other reasonable options now, so it isn't really an apples to apples comparison.

There is probably some unfairness to it, I think we continued to do bad things (even today) and well after we knew the affects and had alternatives that were pricier, but China isn't starting in the same spot we were 100 years ago, they could be much cleaner than they are fairly trivially, same with India. Of course, the whole world will pay the increased cost of that, not just China, as we rely on China for cheap goods.

sounds about right

[dougthonus]

raw population size is a terrible measure of whether a nation has a population problem. it disregards habitable land mass and population density. the average chinese household has only 3 people in it (world average is 4, USA 2.6, india 4.6), so there is most certainly not a population issue that china has to do better dealing with. as you well know, they have highly draconian measures to restrict population growth. india is not a big problem either. it's middle eastern and african nations that are the problem

I guess it depends, in terms of density, India is the 19th most dense population (2 ahead of it are Chinese territories). However, there are no particularly big population density places above it. Agreed that China has taken steps to control population growth which was out of control and they no longer see the same growth, and while it is super large, it's 59th in density in the world.

[coldfish]

If we were to take european nations and extrapolate them to the size of the US, you would be seeing massive case counts.
- Belgium 500,000
- Netherlands 260,000
- France 225,000
- UK 110,000
- Italy 110,000

This is not a good thing. The US has been consistently about 2 weeks behind Europe. IMO, the US seeing 100k cases in a day is a foregone conclusion. Seeing 200k in a day within the next month is pretty likely.

I'm not sure when or how this ends at this point. Hopefully the vaccine is closer than some people think and there are a lot of doses prepped. Based on some of the things I have read, the mrna vaccines are performing very well (Pfizer and Moderna).

[Dez]

Seeing how the rest of the world is going is making the lockdown not as painful here, we've started to get some freedoms back over the last week and are getting some more restrictions eased from tomorrow.

We've got our daily 14 day average down to 4.6 with 7 new cases today all linked to a known and contained "outbreak".

It's obviously destroyed a lot of people's businesses but looking around the world it had to be done or people would be losing family and friends or their own lives rather than just money, kind of easy for me to say though given I'm one of the extremely lucky ones that hasn't had his life majorly affected.

[Dresden]

Some good news about fatality rates declining:

A pair of peer-reviewed studies suggest there has been a "sharp" drop in COVID-19 death rates among patients hospitalized with the coronavirus, NPR reports.

One of the two new studies, which will be published in the Journal of Hospital Medicine, looked at NYU Langone Health system hospitalizations and found "mortality has dropped among hospitalized patients by 18 percentage points," from 25.6 percent to 7.6 percent, since March, according to the report. Another study that will be published in Critical Care Medicine observed "an unadjusted drop in death rates among hospitalized patients of around 20 percentage points since the worst days of the pandemic" in England, NPR writes.

[Ice Man]

I'm not sure when or how this ends at this point. Hopefully the vaccine is closer than some people think and there are a lot of doses prepped. Based on some of the things I have read, the mrna vaccines are performing very well (Pfizer and Moderna).

Getting people to take the vaccines will be ... interesting. My kid surveyed his 20-something friends about only about half said they would take the vaccine. They are not that scared off the virus, and they don't trust a vaccine that they believe will have been rushed to market.

[dougthonus]

I'm not sure when or how this ends at this point. Hopefully the vaccine is closer than some people think and there are a lot of doses prepped. Based on some of the things I have read, the mrna vaccines are performing very well (Pfizer and Moderna).

Getting people to take the vaccines will be ... interesting. My kid surveyed his 20-something friends about only about half said they would take the vaccine. They are not that scared off the virus, and they don't trust a vaccine that they believe will have been rushed to market.

Similar survey results from my network of friends too. I will almost certainly take it, but I get why people are against it.

[coldfish]

I'm not sure when or how this ends at this point. Hopefully the vaccine is closer than some people think and there are a lot of doses prepped. Based on some of the things I have read, the mrna vaccines are performing very well (Pfizer and Moderna).

Getting people to take the vaccines will be ... interesting. My kid surveyed his 20-something friends about only about half said they would take the vaccine. They are not that scared off the virus, and they don't trust a vaccine that they believe will have been rushed to market.

Similar survey results from my network of friends too. I will almost certainly take it, but I get why people are against it.

IMO how this goes. Millions of vaccines are available upon approval. Enough to vaccinate a lot of people but not nearly enough for everyone. There are more than enough volunteers willing to take the available doses.

Either
A: There are lots of stories of serious side effects among the early adopters, in which case we are in a lot of trouble. No one is going to want to take it. Pandemic goes on for years.

or

B: Side effects aren't bad, people see the early adopters moving around without fear or side effects and change their mind. If B happens, there are always going to be more people willing to take the vaccine than vaccines available. Pandemic ends next year.

.....

Edit add: I won't take it at first. I'm pretty sure my family had it in March so there are others that need it more. Beyond that, I'm a wee bit worried that the vaccine will re-trigger my 8 weeks of misery from earlier this year so I want to see how it does with people who have already had the virus before signing up. If initial results are good, we will take it.

[DASMACKDOWN]

I think the reason why alot of people wont take the vaccine at least early on, is because there is no data on long term effects.

People are just a lot more educated on drugs these days. We see it in commercials all the time from law firms. Have you been prescribed Drug X in the last year, you could be compensated in a class action law suit.

People just know that anything that has been rushed, historically, has proven not to be a good idea. So I will just wait, keep my mask on and being socially distanced until we find viable breakthroughs.

[Dresden]

I think a mask mandate, strictly enforced, would probably have more effect in the short term, and possibly the long term, than a vaccine. They think the lower fatality rates they are seeing is in part due to people have less viral load due to increased mask wearing. Someone (maybe Fauci) said not too long ago, if everyone would just wear a mask we could be out of this in a month. So simple a solution- why is it so hard to get people to go along?

[Michael Jackson]

I think a mask mandate, strictly enforced, would probably have more effect in the short term, and possibly the long term, than a vaccine. They think the lower fatality rates they are seeing is in part due to people have less viral load due to increased mask wearing. Someone (maybe Fauci) said not too long ago, if everyone would just wear a mask we could be out of this in a month. So simple a solution- why is it so hard to get people to go along?

Where I am at which is all over Chicagoland I never see people without masks with the exception of the gym (and that is still 50% wearing while working out), and the golf course. I haven’t gone to any inside dining and I know it’s there too for sure but I really don’t think the mask compliance is the biggest issue. If the majority are wearing it, which is what I see, that really should in effect do it’s job, getting that extra 1-2% to wear them wouldn’t make a big swing imho.

Now downstate it other states, yeah I hear masks are just not being used by a greater majority, yet in Dupage the outbreaks are still growing with the grand majority wearing masks.

I personally am not going to indoor dining, just seems like a bad option to me but I also don’t think I should be able to dictate if others do or don’t.

[dougthonus]

Where I am at which is all over Chicagoland I never see people without masks with the exception of the gym (and that is still 50% wearing while working out), and the golf course. I haven’t gone to any inside dining and I know it’s there too for sure but I really don’t think the mask compliance is the biggest issue. If the majority are wearing it, which is what I see, that really should in effect do it’s job, getting that extra 1-2% to wear them wouldn’t make a big swing imho.

Now downstate it other states, yeah I hear masks are just not being used by a greater majority, yet in Dupage the outbreaks are still growing with the grand majority wearing masks.

I personally am not going to indoor dining, just seems like a bad option to me but I also don’t think I should be able to dictate if others do or don’t.

The problem is where you say "everyone where a mask except" and "I don't do this dangerous thing where no one wears masks but tons of other people do". So yeah, mask compliance is still sort of there for a lot of things, but it just goes out the window when people do indoor dining / go to gyms / some schools don't seem to have strict mask rules.

So yeah, I think mask compliance overall in many situations is good, but to end it, you don't need generally good compliance, you would need 100% compliance and closing things where compliance isn't possible. I also see tons of people who don't really wear a mask. they keep it on them to put it on real quick or walk around without it covering their nose.

Again, this is good enough to keep things generally in the right place, we have millions of people in the area, and a relatively small amount are getting this each day all things considered, but it's no where near good enough to end it.

[Dez]

Where I am at which is all over Chicagoland I never see people without masks with the exception of the gym (and that is still 50% wearing while working out), and the golf course. I haven’t gone to any inside dining and I know it’s there too for sure but I really don’t think the mask compliance is the biggest issue. If the majority are wearing it, which is what I see, that really should in effect do it’s job, getting that extra 1-2% to wear them wouldn’t make a big swing imho.

Now downstate it other states, yeah I hear masks are just not being used by a greater majority, yet in Dupage the outbreaks are still growing with the grand majority wearing masks.

I personally am not going to indoor dining, just seems like a bad option to me but I also don’t think I should be able to dictate if others do or don’t.

The problem is where you say "everyone where a mask except" and "I don't do this dangerous thing where no one wears masks but tons of other people do". So yeah, mask compliance is still sort of there for a lot of things, but it just goes out the window when people do indoor dining / go to gyms / some schools don't seem to have strict mask rules.

So yeah, I think mask compliance overall in many situations is good, but to end it, you don't need generally good compliance, you would need 100% compliance and closing things where compliance isn't possible. I also see tons of people who don't really wear a mask. they keep it on them to put it on real quick or walk around without it covering their nose.

Again, this is good enough to keep things generally in the right place, we have millions of people in the area, and a relatively small amount are getting this each day all things considered, but it's no where near good enough to end it.

We have a mandatory mask mandate here in Victoria which are enforced by police who issue fines for those who breach the mask mandate without a medical certificate.

It's absolutely doable if you put the protocol in place, especially now when people can't afford to not comply unless money is no issue for them.

[Ice Man]

We have a mandatory mask mandate here in Victoria which are enforced by police who issue fines for those who breach the mask mandate without a medical certificate.

It's absolutely doable if you put the protocol in place, especially now when people can't afford to not comply unless money is no issue for them.

It would be doable in the U.S. had coronavirus-prevention protocols not been politicized. But now that they have been, refusing to wear masks is regarded by many as a form of civil disobedience. Full compliance won't be happening here.

[Dresden]

I think a mask mandate, strictly enforced, would probably have more effect in the short term, and possibly the long term, than a vaccine. They think the lower fatality rates they are seeing is in part due to people have less viral load due to increased mask wearing. Someone (maybe Fauci) said not too long ago, if everyone would just wear a mask we could be out of this in a month. So simple a solution- why is it so hard to get people to go along?

Where I am at which is all over Chicagoland I never see people without masks with the exception of the gym (and that is still 50% wearing while working out), and the golf course. I haven’t gone to any inside dining and I know it’s there too for sure but I really don’t think the mask compliance is the biggest issue. If the majority are wearing it, which is what I see, that really should in effect do it’s job, getting that extra 1-2% to wear them wouldn’t make a big swing imho.

Now downstate it other states, yeah I hear masks are just not being used by a greater majority, yet in Dupage the outbreaks are still growing with the grand majority wearing masks.

I personally am not going to indoor dining, just seems like a bad option to me but I also don’t think I should be able to dictate if others do or don’t.

That's a good question- why is it spreading if there is widespread mask compliance? While it's still possible to get it while wearing a mask, I believe your odds go way, way down. Possibly its through surface contamination, although more and more they are finding out that is not a common source of transmission.

[DuckIII]

We have a mandatory mask mandate here in Victoria which are enforced by police who issue fines for those who breach the mask mandate without a medical certificate.

It's absolutely doable if you put the protocol in place, especially now when people can't afford to not comply unless money is no issue for them.

It would be doable in the U.S. had coronavirus-prevention protocols not been politicized. But now that they have been, refusing to wear masks is regarded by many as a form of civil disobedience. Full compliance won't be happening here.

Not just civil disobedience, but even a patriotic defense of the American way. It’s so ludicrous.

[dougthonus]

I think the reason why alot of people wont take the vaccine at least early on, is because there is no data on long term effects.

I think this is true. How long do you wait? Do you think you know long term effects after 3 months? 6 months? 1 year? 2 years? The pandemic doesn't end until we have enough people vaccinated. This isn't to say people should or shouldn't wait or have the freedom to make whatever choices they want around the vaccine, but if say 50% of the population doesn't feel it will be safe after one year then this pandemic is going on for a long time.

People are just a lot more educated on drugs these days. We see it in commercials all the time from law firms. Have you been prescribed Drug X in the last year, you could be compensated in a class action law suit.

This is also true, but whether this is true or not true, I feel a bit different about vaccines, especially for something that's an off shoot of the flu. This seems like a much more standard thing we do with medicines than experimenting with hormones or blood pressure.

[Dez]

Back to back days of 0 new cases in Victoria and as of tomorrow, all retail, pubs and gyms open with capacity restrictions.

NORMALITY RETURN TO ME!

[Dresden]

Back to back days of 0 new cases in Victoria and as of tomorrow, all retail, pubs and gyms open with capacity restrictions.

NORMALITY RETURN TO ME!

That's awesome.