2020 Presidential Election Thread: The Homestretch... Still

Pointgod · Post #161 » by **Pointgod** » Mon Oct 26, 2020 11:59 pm

GONYK wrote:

Read on Twitter

Any word on what smart people like Nate Silver consider a big enough polling error to swing it back to Trump? I know in 2016, I think the swing states were all within the margin of error. But I feel like if the average of in somewhere like Michigan is 6-7% the polls would need to be wrong by like 8% to swing back to Trump. Just my thoughts though

omerome · Post #162 » by **omerome** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:20 am

Watch on YouTube

robillionaire · Post #163 » by **robillionaire** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:30 am

the activist supreme court will throw trump the election if it's even close to close.

Post #164 » by **GONYK** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:36 am

Pointgod wrote:
GONYK wrote:

Read on Twitter

Any word on what smart people like Nate Silver consider a big enough polling error to swing it back to Trump? I know in 2016, I think the swing states were all within the margin of error. But I feel like if the average of in somewhere like Michigan is 6-7% the polls would need to be wrong by like 8% to swing back to Trump. Just my thoughts though

I would have to think his thoughts still work along these lines

Read on Twitter

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HarthorneWingo · Post #165 » by **HarthorneWingo** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:37 am

Pointgod wrote:
GONYK wrote:

Read on Twitter

Any word on what smart people like Nate Silver consider a big enough polling error to swing it back to Trump? I know in 2016, I think the swing states were all within the margin of error. But I feel like if the average of in somewhere like Michigan is 6-7% the polls would need to be wrong by like 8% to swing back to Trump. Just my thoughts though

I’m just spitballing here but maybe there are a lot of “new” voters plus those you sat out in ‘16 voting in this election which could skew the polls numbers?

I guess what I’m saying is that maybe the polls are underreporting Biden’s margins?

Post #166 » by **GONYK** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:39 am

HarthorneWingo wrote:
Pointgod wrote:
GONYK wrote:

Read on Twitter

Any word on what smart people like Nate Silver consider a big enough polling error to swing it back to Trump? I know in 2016, I think the swing states were all within the margin of error. But I feel like if the average of in somewhere like Michigan is 6-7% the polls would need to be wrong by like 8% to swing back to Trump. Just my thoughts though

I’m just spitballing here but maybe there are a lot of “new” voters plus those you sat out in ‘16 voting in this election which could skew the polls numbers?

I guess what I’m saying is that maybe the polls are underreporting Biden’s margins?

That's what happened with Obama in '12. The polls underestimated his lead by a wider margin than they overestimated Hillary's in '16, but nobody remembers that.

Michael Lucky · Post #167 » by **Michael Lucky** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 12:40 am

or if the election is stolen somehow?

No bias here at all. lol

funny rasmussen has trump up 1 point nationally, and outside the obama vs mccain election their poll presidential numbers have been on the dot.

mind you i do believe trump will lose, but i definitely think the race is closer than the major networks polling numbers suggest.

HarthorneWingo · Post #168 » by **HarthorneWingo** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:04 am

Supreme Court just fcked us on vote counting.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/supreme-court-wisconsin-absentee-ballots_n_5f975dd8c5b63fd49cef5106

Appleshampoo · Post #169 » by **Appleshampoo** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:05 am

Michael Lucky wrote:or if the election is stolen somehow?

No bias here at all. lol

funny rasmussen has trump up 1 point nationally, and outside the obama vs mccain election their poll presidential numbers have been on the dot.

mind you i do believe trump will lose, but i definitely think the race is closer than the major networks polling numbers suggest.

The impression is Trump is setting up contesting the election results in the courts if Biden wins a close contest. Trump has appellate court judges in place in a few swing states. The Supreme Court is 6-3. It's 100% in his nature to make it ugly. Trump is willing to break the law to muddy the water and accuse democrats of breaking the law. There's "50-50 shot." Just ask Rudy.

HarthorneWingo · Post #170 » by **HarthorneWingo** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:07 am

Michael Lucky wrote:or if the election is stolen somehow?

No bias here at all. lol

funny rasmussen has trump up 1 point nationally, and outside the obama vs mccain election their poll presidential numbers have been on the dot.

mind you i do believe trump will lose, but i definitely think the race is closer than the major networks polling numbers suggest.

I think you’re failing to account for the substantial number of new voters.

robillionaire · Post #171 » by **robillionaire** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:09 am

HarthorneWingo wrote:Supreme Court just fcked us.

They will discard the mail-in votes if they have to. Trump won't be leaving. I'm prepared mentally for it already.

Phish Tank · Post #172 » by **Phish Tank** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:13 am

robillionaire wrote:
HarthorneWingo wrote:Supreme Court just fcked us.

They will discard the mail-in votes if they have to. Trump won't be leaving. I'm prepared mentally for it already.

We need our own troops like those right wing wingnuts

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Oscirus · Post #173 » by **Oscirus** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:14 am

If Biden gets this **** he better be paying attention to whats happening now. Time to legit talk about packing and not just kicking the can down the road

Michael Lucky · Post #174 » by **Michael Lucky** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:24 am

HarthorneWingo wrote:
Michael Lucky wrote:or if the election is stolen somehow?

No bias here at all. lol

funny rasmussen has trump up 1 point nationally, and outside the obama vs mccain election their poll presidential numbers have been on the dot.

mind you i do believe trump will lose, but i definitely think the race is closer than the major networks polling numbers suggest.

I think you’re failing to account for the substantial number of new voters.

Except new registration numbers in some of the swing states lean republican **** in PA and Florida.

robillionaire · Post #175 » by **robillionaire** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:41 am

trump just put this out. he stressed "in person" like 5 times. they are going to throw out mail in votes.

Watch on YouTube

;feature=emb_logo

BKlutch · Post #176 » by **BKlutch** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 1:52 am

Clyde_Style wrote:
dakomish23 wrote:I can’t. It’s too much.

Read on Twitter

Does that mean they're also cancelling Trump's porn star initiative, Blowjobs for Shots?

No need to cancel. Once they kick the pedophiles out, they can run it from the pizzeria.

Post #177 » by **GONYK** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:08 am

Michael Lucky wrote:
HarthorneWingo wrote:
Michael Lucky wrote:or if the election is stolen somehow?

No bias here at all. lol

funny rasmussen has trump up 1 point nationally, and outside the obama vs mccain election their poll presidential numbers have been on the dot.

mind you i do believe trump will lose, but i definitely think the race is closer than the major networks polling numbers suggest.

I think you’re failing to account for the substantial number of new voters.

Except new registration numbers in some of the swing states lean republican **** in PA and Florida.

Biden has such a big lead because Republicans are voting for him though, so you can't go just by party registration.

On top of that Dems did all their registration during the primaries, so Republicans registering now isn't a significant data point. On the whole, both parties registered the same amount they historically do every election.

Post #178 » by **GONYK** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:09 am

HarthorneWingo wrote:
Michael Lucky wrote:or if the election is stolen somehow?

No bias here at all. lol

funny rasmussen has trump up 1 point nationally, and outside the obama vs mccain election their poll presidential numbers have been on the dot.

mind you i do believe trump will lose, but i definitely think the race is closer than the major networks polling numbers suggest.

I think you’re failing to account for the substantial number of new voters.

To this point:

Read on Twitter

?s=19

BKlutch · Post #179 » by **BKlutch** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:10 am

Pointgod wrote:
GONYK wrote:

Read on Twitter

Any word on what smart people like Nate Silver consider a big enough polling error to swing it back to Trump? I know in 2016, I think the swing states were all within the margin of error. But I feel like if the average of in somewhere like Michigan is 6-7% the polls would need to be wrong by like 8% to swing back to Trump. Just my thoughts though

A repeat of the 2016 polling error would result in Biden getting 342 electoral votes.

https://fortune.com/2020/10/26/trump-biden-polls-who-will-win-2020-election-2016-polling-error-pennsylvania-florida-michigan-wisconsin-arizona-ohio-north-carolina-iowa-clinton/?fbclid=IwAR3514cNIEPv0-iwS63cXf8KXisMOstbDDVogy81jqTh7MQtMWchwv8PWQw

Pointgod · Post #180 » by **Pointgod** » Tue Oct 27, 2020 2:38 am

HarthorneWingo wrote:
Pointgod wrote:
GONYK wrote:

Read on Twitter

Any word on what smart people like Nate Silver consider a big enough polling error to swing it back to Trump? I know in 2016, I think the swing states were all within the margin of error. But I feel like if the average of in somewhere like Michigan is 6-7% the polls would need to be wrong by like 8% to swing back to Trump. Just my thoughts though

I’m just spitballing here but maybe there are a lot of “new” voters plus those you sat out in ‘16 voting in this election which could skew the polls numbers?

I guess what I’m saying is that maybe the polls are underreporting Biden’s margins?

Oh yeah don’t get me wrong, polling errors and margins of error can swing both ways. Just curious how much of a polling error would be required to over come an 6-8% average lead in a specific state. The fact that Biden and Trump are within the margin of error in Iowa, Georgia, Ohio, and Texas is horrible news for Trump.