2020 Draft & Free Agency

[Lazlo4D]

So the 2020 NBA Draft will be Wed, Nov 18th.

The talk now is that Free Agency may start a few days days later. NBA training camps would be first few weeks of December, THEN a 72 games season would start days before Christmas. Very compact timeline.

Sounds like veteran teams that stand-pat roster-wise could have a real advantage in a shortened season.

It also sounds like the odds are against getting any significant contribution from rookies from a "weak draft" this year. Most of them haven't played organize basketball games since late February and had no tournament experience.

Be interesting to see if teams in the lottery will bail on their picks for proven vets and/or future FRP's. Will teams in the 14-30 range trade their picks for single/multiple future 2nd rounder picks?

[Topofthekey]

The problem is, with a draft this weak, even if we do manage to package some of our 2RPs for a late pick in the first round (say, 20s), how much of a difference is it from drafting early in the second round in other drafts?

As for vets, sure, I'm open to the idea of "selling" some of our vets like Doug and TJM for a pick, but again it's likely going to be a late pick in the first round at best, so how attractive is that really

Now, if we could package our SRPs into a FRP this draft, while simultaneously trading some form of Doug and TJM for another one or two FRPs, and then somehow package all those FRPs and trade our way into the lottery, then yes that would be intriguing, but it sounds like achieving that would require some magic and good luck

[Lazlo4D]

achieving that would require some magic and good luck

Kind of like trading cash considerations for TJ Warren and the #32 pick in 2019 draft ?

[Topofthekey]

Let's try to give it a go

I see that Celtics hold 3 FRPs in the draft. Would they be willing to trade #26 for 2021 Pacers and Jazz SRP?

I also see that Thunder has pick #25. Assuming they trade Chris Paul, would they trade #25 for TJM?

And I see 76ers holding #21. Would they value Doug more than whoever they can draft at #21?

Assuming it's a yes to all three, we're now holding picks #21, 25, and 26

Maybe send #25+26 to Nuggets for #22

And then send #21+22 to Mavericks for #18

If Magic values a backup wing, maybe we can trade #18 + Lamb for #15

Final step, trade #15 + 2021 Bucks SRP for #14

So I basically gutted the team's bench and traded all the SRPs in 2021 for #14

Somehow, that's simultaneously unrealistic and also terrible

KP will do better

[Scoot McGroot]

Let's try to give it a go

I see that Celtics hold 3 FRPs in the draft. Would they be willing to trade #26 for 2021 Pacers and Jazz SRP?

I'm sure they would LOVE to postpone one of those 1sts by a year. But why would we want to pay a 1st in what projects to possibly be a talent game changer of a draft in 2021? Also, weird quirk of trade rules, due to a league rule called "The Stepien Rule" we can't make any trades before the draft of giving up our 2021 1st since we don't own our 2020 1st round pick. A team cannot have traded away 1st round picks in consecutive "future" drafts in a way that leaves them without any 1st round pick in back to back years. We could have Boston draft for us, and then trade us the pick after the draft for our future pick, though. I wouldn't do that, though.

I also see that Thunder has pick #25. Assuming they trade Chris Paul, would they trade #25 for TJM?

Probably not. They're looking ready for a rebuild and generally rebuilding teams don't trade away 1st round picks. Plus, I don't think one year of McConnell by himself gets a first round pick value. Would be great if he did, but OKC also still has Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the PGOTF and Schroeder as their 2nd PG. McConnell would be 3rd PG there, at best.

And I see 76ers holding #21. Would they value Doug more than whoever they can draft at #21?

21 for Doug would be a miracle of a haul. But with Tobias, Simmons, Horford, and Embiid on the books, they need the cost controlled certainty of that #21 to be signed for the next 4 years. I would imagine it'd be a no.

Assuming it's a yes to all three, we're now holding picks #21, 25, and 26

Maybe send #25+26 to Nuggets for #22

And then send #21+22 to Mavericks for #18

If Magic values a backup wing, maybe we can trade #18 + Lamb for #15

I would consider Lamb to be negative value this offseason. Attaching him to a draft pick would likely move you lower in the draft, and maybe by quite a bit.

Final step, trade #15 + 2021 Bucks SRP for #14

So I basically gutted the team's bench and traded all the SRPs in 2021 for #14

Somehow, that's simultaneously unrealistic and also terrible

KP will do better

Love the honesty and putting the motions to work, though!


In all reality, if we're going to get a 1st, it's going to be something like Doug to the Lakers for Cook/filler/28. Maybe we could include a couple 2nds and get that filler to be Talen Horton-Tucker to allow the Lakers some seconds to trade around and make some small moves going forward. McConnell is a 2nd or two kind of asset via trade.

[Scoot McGroot]

Otherwise, it's starting to look like the cap may stay flat at $109m (which is fine) and an agreement will be reached to separate the tax from the cap for one year and set the tax line at $139m. With our 12 guys signed for next year, we'd be at $125.3m in salary. The full non-taxpayer MLE would be just about $9.9m. So, in theory, we would be able to use the full thing and stay under the tax line while filling the roster to 15. In fact, we could ALLLLLMOST use the full Bi-Annual Exception (can only be used every other year, and only on up to 2 year contracts) of $3.88m and stay under the luxury tax line.

[Moooose]

I personally don't see this as a weak draft, but maybe an unknown draft. Talents are scattered all throughout the 2nd round. Some good prospects aren't even mentioned in mocks.

With that said, I am fine with the Pacers staying at 54. But if we can purchase a late first or an early second, that'd be great.

[boomershadow]

The only way I see us moving into the first round of this year's draft is as part of a trade deal involving Oladipo or Turner, and I don"t even think that's likely.

[Wizop]

I take the "weak draft" with a whole lot of salt. I think people are saying that because they don't see a superstar in the top 3. that does not mean that the whole draft is substandard.

as I remember, there are two teams that have additional picks low in the first. there are also high seconds. I think one of these could be bought for cash.

I'm not sure if the Stepien rule requires us to have our own first to trade next year's first. I think having anyone's first will do and so I'm not sure trading next year's first for a first this year before the draft is prohibited. in any event, I'd rather use cash.

I wonder what the plans, if any, are for Alize and Sampson? if both are back, I'm not sure what we'd do with a draftee unless the pick is low enough to use a two-way and send him to Fort Wayne.

[Lazlo4D]

And I see 76ers holding #21. Would they value Doug more than whoever they can draft at #21?

I think the 76ers really regretted letting TJ McConnell leave last year. They need a good backup PG and he's only $3.5M. TJM for #21 would make sense for both teams.

I am also thinking several teams will try to trade for Aaron Holiday.

[Pacers_Freak]

And I see 76ers holding #21. Would they value Doug more than whoever they can draft at #21?

I think the 76ers really regretted letting TJ McConnell leave last year. They need a good backup PG and he's only $3.5M. TJM for #21 would make sense for both teams.

I am also thinking several teams will try to trade for Aaron Holiday.

Yeah I don't see them forking over a 1st for TJM.

[Scoot McGroot]

And I see 76ers holding #21. Would they value Doug more than whoever they can draft at #21?

I think the 76ers really regretted letting TJ McConnell leave last year. They need a good backup PG and he's only $3.5M. TJM for #21 would make sense for both teams.

I am also thinking several teams will try to trade for Aaron Holiday.

21 for McConnell would be a drastic overpay for Philly. McConnell just doesn’t have anywhere near that value.

[pacers33granger]

I take the "weak draft" with a whole lot of salt. I think people are saying that because they don't see a superstar in the top 3. that does not mean that the whole draft is substandard.

As I understand it most who follow the draft and prospects closely call it a weak draft for just that reason but recognize that there will be solid value into the 2nd round. It's a role player draft basically from pick 1 on. A few guys may hit, but everyone in the top has major major question marks and would be mid to late lotto in a normal draft.

But we could very well end up with a rotation player at 54 if KP picks right.

[Lazlo4D]

Listened to Boston Sports radio this afternoon. Enjoyed hearing about the latest Patriots meltdown.
https://985thesportshub.com/shows/felger-mazz/

Apparently the latest smoke from the Gordon Hayward situation is that he may opt out because the Celtics locker room is filled with young ego's/headcases and he might not lose as much money as originally thought. This is a continuation of Kyrie & Horford leaving, when they had a chance, last year.

Since this next season will be on reduced pay, reduced fans, & reduced games... BRI will be way down. His player option is a % not exact number.

If he opted out, he could sign with another team, of his choice, for say 4yr's/80M-100M and escape the "Celtic's ego implosion". Apparently his wife hates it there in Boston. Social media apparently jump all over her, recently, when she was expecting and they suggested she have 'induced labor' so Hayward wouldn't miss some playoff games. Good grief. So they moved the extended family to Fishers to get away.

Maybe that's why we see all these Celtics fan's desperately trying to generate value for Hayward now before he leaves for nothing.

Who knows what the true story is but this would explain some things...

[Scoot McGroot]

His contract is a set number for this year. Yes, the league and players association could agree to withhold a percentage of everyone’s money, but that’s be the same withholding percentage of either 34m as it would be 20m. So, he’d be giving up an awful lot of money. AND there’s only a couple teams with cap space this offseason and maybe none of them would have interest. Detroit, NY, and Atlanta have space, with only Atlanta as maybe an option, though they’re invested heavily in young top 5 draft picks at the position. Even if you’ve already made $150m, $10m is still an awful lot of money to give up.

But I am of the belief that All the Hayward rumors are from Hayward and his agent angling to get out of Boston, not really from an Indiana looking to acquire him. Ideally, I think they’d like to keep his big money deal and still get traded to his ideal situation like Indy and then sign fresh next year.

[basketballwacko2]

achieving that would require some magic and good luck

Kind of like trading cash considerations for TJ Warren and the #32 pick in 2019 draft ?

Well that was to eat the contract. We don't have any space to take an unwanted contract. We got a great deal getting Warren.

[basketballwacko2]

I take the "weak draft" with a whole lot of salt. I think people are saying that because they don't see a superstar in the top 3. that does not mean that the whole draft is substandard.

as I remember, there are two teams that have additional picks low in the first. there are also high seconds. I think one of these could be bought for cash.

I'm not sure if the Stepien rule requires us to have our own first to trade next year's first. I think having anyone's first will do and so I'm not sure trading next year's first for a first this year before the draft is prohibited. in any event, I'd rather use cash.

I wonder what the plans, if any, are for Alize and Sampson? if both are back, I'm not sure what we'd do with a draftee unless the pick is low enough to use a two-way and send him to Fort Wayne.

There could be a great player at nearly any spot, think about some of the 2nd round picks who've become big time players like Jokic, Middleton, and Dre Green. BUT, it gets pretty dicey in the mid 50's to find a real NBA player. I like this big guy Omer Yurtseven he looked good at Georgetown, and may not even be there but if he is I'd take him.

[basketballwacko2]

And I see 76ers holding #21. Would they value Doug more than whoever they can draft at #21?

I think the 76ers really regretted letting TJ McConnell leave last year. They need a good backup PG and he's only $3.5M. TJM for #21 would make sense for both teams.

I am also thinking several teams will try to trade for Aaron Holiday.

Yeah I don't see them forking over a 1st for TJM.

They have 2 2nds 34 and 36 I don't know if they'd want TJ back, I know I like the guy maybe one or both of the 2nds they have 4 total and the #21. I don't think they'd trade the #1 to get TJ.

[basketballwacko2]

His contract is a set number for this year. Yes, the league and players association could agree to withhold a percentage of everyone’s money, but that’s be the same withholding percentage of either 34m as it would be 20m. So, he’d be giving up an awful lot of money. AND there’s only a couple teams with cap space this offseason and maybe none of them would have interest. Detroit, NY, and Atlanta have space, with only Atlanta as maybe an option, though they’re invested heavily in young top 5 draft picks at the position. Even if you’ve already made $150m, $10m is still an awful lot of money to give up.

But I am of the belief that All the Hayward rumors are from Hayward and his agent angling to get out of Boston, not really from an Indiana looking to acquire him. Ideally, I think they’d like to keep his big money deal and still get traded to his ideal situation like Indy and then sign fresh next year.

I'm with you on this, I can see Hayward wanting out of that locker room. Thing is that Stevens may not be as safe as once thought if the locker room is becoming some kind of Kid show.

I'd like to have Hayward but not on that contract and I don't want to give up value even if he was to "Opt out" we have no space to sign him and if it's a sign and trade who do we give them? I don't want to trade Turner, or Warren and I don't want to give up Victor before we get a chance to see what he can do following training camp.

[Topofthekey]

It's easy to see that Hayward is the odd man out on the Celtics roster

He's like an outsider on his own team, and it's obvious that the Celtics will not be able to re-sign him unless he takes a significant pay cut

I'm quite indifferent when it comes to him joining the Pacers. He'd be a useful player to have, but the fit isn't great, and Pacers should prioritize re-signing Vic and Warren

If Pacers were to trade for him, I'd consider something like Warren + Doug + Lamb + TJM for Hayward + #14 + #26, but considering how stingy Celtics have been with their assets, it's likely something that they would balk at