RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #8 (Shaquille O'Neal)

[trex_8063]

2020 List
1. LeBron James
2. Michael Jordan
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. ???

Target stop time will be ~3pm EST on Friday.

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[DQuinn1575]

No change for me from my last ballot:

1. Shaq
2. Bird
3.Hakeem

Shaq and Bird are the two most dominant players left - Shaq with sheer power was a force the league has rarely seen, and it wound up in 3 straight titles. Bird could do everything, he shot, passed, rebounded as well as virtually everyone, and played effective defense. I'm picking Shaq over Bird because of length of prime seasons. I'm going with Hakeem for 3rd.

[Owly]

No change for me from my last ballot:

1. Shaq
2. Bird
3.Hakeem

Shaq and Bird are the two most dominant players left - Shaq with sheer power was a force the league has rarely seen, and it wound up in 3 straight titles. Bird could do everything, he shot, passed, rebounded as well as virtually everyone, and played effective defense. I'm picking Shaq over Bird because of length of prime seasons. I'm going with Hakeem for 3rd.

As far as "do it all"/well rounded players this will always be a bit subjective/woolly in what we mean by this but any thoughts on Robertson.

Bird has a couple of pretty monstrous TS Add years ('87, '88 - his 50-40-90 years where he also increased his 3 point volume), with a peak slightly above some with a clearly better career number and average (slight peak edge on Nowitzki). But Robertson has a significant advantage at peak and demolishes him prime for prime.

Passing skill is hard to compare on limited footage. But Robertson in his prime sometimes had a large advantage in assists on the next player on the board apg-wise ('62, '64, '65, to a lesser extent '69) other times Rodgers was close ('61, '66) or ahead ('63, '67) and led the best offenses in the league.

Robertson's rebounding is overstated by high minutes, high pace and initially low shooting percentages. I think he's the best rebounding guard of his era. Even position adjusted, I think this would still be an advantage to Bird.

My guess is young-ish Bird may have peaked as a better defender. But even ignoring the really painful years at the end, he seems to lose some mobility. A lot of noise/range/guesswork on the D for both of these guys for me.

Personally, I lean Robertson.

[Joao Saraiva]

Votes
1. Shaquille O'Neal
2. Hakeem Olajuwon
3. Kobe Bryant

The way I see it Shaq is the 2nd best peak available, just behind Hakeem.

His offensive gravity and presence near the rim allowed teams to build a consistent great offense trough the post. He was a great finisher in the paint, drew a ton of fouls and was a great passer.

He was a very good man to man defender and rim protector at his best. Not tier 1 defense, but definitevely a big plus.

13 quality seasons (good longevity), very good prime and an extended one, definitely a guy that raised his game in the playoffs.

Accodales wise, 3 FMVP, 1 MVP, 8 all-nba 1st. Definitely among the best left too.

I believe his offense makes him one of the greatest #1 options on offense ever. And I don't believe there is a big defensive gap to anyone, at least not big enough to compensate for what he consistently brough on offense. Hakeem comes close tough.

What separates Shaq from Hakeem? For me it's his passing. That made him a better player to build arround. Also his style of play near the rim made him a more efficient guy.

What separates him from KG? Proven #1 option, big gap on offense.

Against Kobe I give Shaq a peak and prime advantage.

To sum it up:
- Tier 1 in peak,
- Tier 1 in prime,
- Tier 2 in longevity,
- Playoff consistency,
- Great gravity on offense,
- Very good defender in his peak even tough he was flawed,
- Very good on and off ball big man,
- Has got a good list of accodales even if he isn't #1 from the guys left.

[Dutchball97]

1. Larry Bird - I voted for him last round and I still stand by that. I think his dominance in the mid 80s, along with a decade of high level play is enough to put him in the top 10 for me. I personally prefer him over Magic and Shaq but their all in the same tier so I'm not too stressed about where they place relative to each other.

2. Shaquille O'Neal - I see Shaq as less consistent than Magic and Bird in their respective primes. He did peak higher than both though, so there is that to consider. In the end I slightly prefer Bird but it could go either way for me.

3. Hakeem Olajuwon - I'm not 100% sure on my #10 pick tbh. I'm also still considering Kobe and I've seen enough strong arguments for KG to consider him here as well. For now I'm comfortable with voting for Hakeem here as he's definitely deserving of the top 10.

[70sFan]

When we talk about all-around players, Jerry West is usually overlooked one. We all know about his offensive skillset, but unlike most players in conversation West was also one of the best defenders ever at his position.

I'm going to use last game of 1972 Lakers winning streak to showcase West's defensive impact - keep in mind that he was already 34 years old in this game

Just after a jumpball, West took a player with the ball ansd prevented easy basket, then he switched quickly on Hudson and defended his drive really well. Keep in mind how quickly he reads the flow of possession - this is something that West did consistently. He rarely made mistakes without the ball.

This is another known atribute West possessed - he had very quick hands. I haven't seen many (if any) guards that disprutive on defense.

West gambled this time and went under the screen, but look how measured this gamble was - he didn't go for the ball in cost of potential breakdown - he stayed close to screen and ready to contest shot, but he realized that pass wasn't perfect and he delfected it, causing a turnover.

This is the first time in the game when Hudson beat West off the dribble, but West's long wingspan (reported as 6'9) allowed him to block his shot from behind anyway. Then West fouled Bellamy inside, trying to steal the ball.

This time Lou did just enough to make separation from West and he made nice pull-up jumper. Pay attention to how broadcaster said that Hudson got away with travel here - basketball was much different back then.

Great P&R coverage. West decided to go over the solid Bellamy screen and he blocked Hudson's shot from behind. Outstanding defensive play.

I hope this can give you some insight about West's defensive abilities and some of his tendencies. I can try to do the same with other games if that's not enough.

[Odinn21]

Ah, this started to get tricky because I have Bird ahead of Magic. Not putting another name after Magic to have not separated from Bird feels the right thing to do.
Then again, I have O'Neal ahead of both, Magic is in there but O'Neal is not. So...

I think I should stick to my original ranking rather than shifting to see the better player for me higher to his peer.

8. Shaquille O'Neal
Well, he definitely had the potential to be a proper goat candidate. Though his demeanor was a problem. It led to him being a lazy defender. Even with that, he was still among the goat offensive players.
I think his longevity is somewhat underrated. He was 33 in 2005 playoffs. That's the same age as Duncan's in 2009 playoffs.
Though he definitely earned some of the criticism for it as well. I mean, when his scoring power wasn't there any more it was very obvious that how exploitable he was ('06 Finals). And 6 of the 7 players already voted in kept adding to their respective careers, O'Neal almost stopped.

9. Larry Bird
This might be debatable but I have Bird ahead of Magic because while Magic got his success, it was mostly against one good team, that was the NBA Finals. We saw how meaningful this is with the latest bubble playoffs. Bird, on the other hand, had to play at least 2 and more often 3 series like that to be successful. Bird being a worse playoffs performer than Magic usually ignores this. Also, after hitting his actual prime in 1983-84, Bird never had that kind of issue while playing against way tougher competition.

10. Hakeem Olajuwon
In terms of quality wise, Olajuwon was nothing short of Duncan or O'Neal or Bird or Magic. Depending on your preference, he could be the top choice among them for you. The thing about him is though, we have to consider what happened in actuality. Had Olajuwon was properly utilized on offense like Tomjanovich did for his entire career, then we probably would have a greater career to evaluate. But he didn't, so here we are.
The reason why he's up here also prevents him from getting higher. His legacy and career perception are mostly dependant on those 3 straight peak seasons. When you take away 1990-92 from Jordan or 2012-14 from James or 2002-04 from Duncan or similar for Chamberlain, Abdul-Jabbar and Russell, they still have more to talk about as their legacy.
When you take away that 1993-95 from Olajuwon, he looks like he's down to Ewing - Robinson level (not taking anything away from those legends surely).
This is also why I see a legit case for Bryant against Olajuwon. While Bryant never reached the heights Olajuwon did, I see a better quality consistency from him.
That's why even though he definitely had tier 1 peak, when I think of 10 or 12 seasons between him and any other player voted in before him and O'Neal, Bird, he's not coming ahead.

[Jordan Syndrome]

I'm definitely going to be considering West after Garnett/Shaq/Dirk/Hakeem which puts West in the running, for me, for #12.

[DQuinn1575]

No change for me from my last ballot:

1. Shaq
2. Bird
3.Hakeem

Shaq and Bird are the two most dominant players left - Shaq with sheer power was a force the league has rarely seen, and it wound up in 3 straight titles. Bird could do everything, he shot, passed, rebounded as well as virtually everyone, and played effective defense. I'm picking Shaq over Bird because of length of prime seasons. I'm going with Hakeem for 3rd.

As far as "do it all"/well rounded players this will always be a bit subjective/woolly in what we mean by this but any thoughts on Robertson.

Bird has a couple of pretty monstrous TS Add years ('87, '88 - his 50-40-90 years where he also increased his 3 point volume), with a peak slightly above some with a clearly better career number and average (slight peak edge on Nowitzki). But Robertson has a significant advantage at peak and demolishes him prime for prime.

Passing skill is hard to compare on limited footage. But Robertson in his prime sometimes had a large advantage in assists on the next player on the board apg-wise ('62, '64, '65, to a lesser extent '69) other times Rodgers was close ('61, '66) or ahead ('63, '67) and led the best offenses in the league.

Robertson's rebounding is overstated by high minutes, high pace and initially low shooting percentages. I think he's the best rebounding guard of his era. Even position adjusted, I think this would still be an advantage to Bird.

My guess is young-ish Bird may have peaked as a better defender. But even ignoring the really painful years at the end, he seems to lose some mobility. A lot of noise/range/guesswork on the D for both of these guys for me.

Personally, I lean Robertson.

Oscar to me is very intriguing. In 1986 there was a poll done by the Dallas newspaper of 60 experts - I can dig it out, but Oscar finished second in the GOAT voting to Kareem. All through his career and for years after he was considered the best non center ever. Sometime between the mid 80s and today a shift has occurred where what people who watched and followed the game's opinions differ from what is thought of as present day. One of the players who lost standing would be Oscar - during Magic's prime the thought of him being as good as Oscar was would be considered ridiculous. In an era where big men always won MVP, and everyone thought you had to have a big man, he was voted MVP over both Wilt and Russell in their prime. He is probably one championship in the 60s away from being the Top Tier - although if Garnett is getting serious consideration, and I have Oscar ahead of Garnett.

[penbeast0]

No one chased me off the big dominant guys so they are still my 1 and 2. Neither has great career length but each was not just the best player in the game at one point, they were the guys who coaches would try gimmick defenses and change their whole game to try to deal with. I saw Shaq, I didn't see Mikan, but both seem super impressive, even more so than their impressive stats.

Behind them I have a few more that are very close. Curry, Bird, Hakeem, Garnett with Oscar, West, Erving, Moses, DRob, Karl Malone, and Kevin Durant also people I'm looking at:

1. Shaq -- most physically dominant player ever outside of Wilt
2. Mikan -- most skilled and most physically dominant big of his era, but that era was very weak
3. Curry -- changed the game and shockingly dominant for such a little guy. He's the other guy who really changed the way people tried to play defense and deal with his threat, making him even a greater threat with greater gravity than his stats would show. Questions about his durability and length of prime are very real however.

I am very close with all these guys; I could switch them all from first to last and back and make arguments for any of them and may switch if it is close or someone talks me down from my rather lonely ledge.

[penbeast0]

Oscar to me is very intriguing. In 1986 there was a poll done by the Dallas newspaper of 60 experts - I can dig it out, but Oscar finished second in the GOAT voting to Kareem. All through his career and for years after he was considered the best non center ever. Sometime between the mid 80s and today a shift has occurred where what people who watched and followed the game's opinions differ from what is thought of as present day. One of the players who lost standing would be Oscar - during Magic's prime the thought of him being as good as Oscar was would be considered ridiculous. In an era where big men always won MVP, and everyone thought you had to have a big man, he was voted MVP over both Wilt and Russell in their prime. He is probably one championship in the 60s away from being the Top Tier - although if Garnett is getting serious consideration, and I have Oscar ahead of Garnett.

Sorry, I can tell you that during Magic's late prime, there was a general consensus among at least the people I talked to and went to games with that he was the greatest PG ever. I will agree that all of the 60s guys have receded in the general consciousness as there are less and less people that saw them.

[Owly]

No change for me from my last ballot:

1. Shaq
2. Bird
3.Hakeem

Shaq and Bird are the two most dominant players left - Shaq with sheer power was a force the league has rarely seen, and it wound up in 3 straight titles. Bird could do everything, he shot, passed, rebounded as well as virtually everyone, and played effective defense. I'm picking Shaq over Bird because of length of prime seasons. I'm going with Hakeem for 3rd.

As far as "do it all"/well rounded players this will always be a bit subjective/woolly in what we mean by this but any thoughts on Robertson.

Bird has a couple of pretty monstrous TS Add years ('87, '88 - his 50-40-90 years where he also increased his 3 point volume), with a peak slightly above some with a clearly better career number and average (slight peak edge on Nowitzki). But Robertson has a significant advantage at peak and demolishes him prime for prime.

Passing skill is hard to compare on limited footage. But Robertson in his prime sometimes had a large advantage in assists on the next player on the board apg-wise ('62, '64, '65, to a lesser extent '69) other times Rodgers was close ('61, '66) or ahead ('63, '67) and led the best offenses in the league.

Robertson's rebounding is overstated by high minutes, high pace and initially low shooting percentages. I think he's the best rebounding guard of his era. Even position adjusted, I think this would still be an advantage to Bird.

My guess is young-ish Bird may have peaked as a better defender. But even ignoring the really painful years at the end, he seems to lose some mobility. A lot of noise/range/guesswork on the D for both of these guys for me.

Personally, I lean Robertson.

Oscar to me is very intriguing. In 1986 there was a poll done by the Dallas newspaper of 60 experts - I can dig it out, but Oscar finished second in the GOAT voting to Kareem. All through his career and for years after he was considered the best non center ever. Sometime between the mid 80s and today a shift has occurred where what people who watched and followed the game's opinions differ from what is thought of as present day. One of the players who lost standing would be Oscar - during Magic's prime the thought of him being as good as Oscar was would be considered ridiculous. In an era where big men always won MVP, and everyone thought you had to have a big man, he was voted MVP over both Wilt and Russell in their prime. He is probably one championship in the 60s away from being the Top Tier - although if Garnett is getting serious consideration, and I have Oscar ahead of Garnett.

Would be interested to see that poll. Two 90s authors (Bjarkman and Taragano) each ranked Robertson 1 overall and 1999 AP poll (not limited to pros years iirc) had him second to MJ. Whilst those are the high-water marks they are illustrative of the slide you note, most notably versus Magic and Bird.

Like Garnett (though with cruder tools - i.e. WOWY) we have evidence of high impact (and not so good teammates) for prime and peak prouction years on their respective first teams.

[90sAllDecade]

1. Hakeem
2. Shaq
3. Bird

Hakeem and Shaq have the higher peaks but Hakeem has the best longevity of the three.
Shaq and Bird are amazing, but both had much better team support and coaching and Bird didn't fare as well in the playoffs having a drop off in offense from the RS and I can't place his defensive impact above the others.




Hakeem Vs HOF Centers


Hakeem also outplayed or dominated his HOF peers at center in the playoffs. He also won all the playoff series listed in the videos.

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[Whopper_Sr]

When we talk about all-around players, Jerry West is usually overlooked one. We all know about his offensive skillset, but unlike most players in conversation West was also one of the best defenders ever at his position.

He certainly is overlooked. West is arguably the 2nd greatest guard ever. I prefer him over Oscar for instance.

[Ambrose]

I'm leaning Shaq/Hakeem 1&2 but #3 is wide open. KG, Bird, Kobe, West, Oscar, etc. are all options. Hopefully we get some more conversation on those guys.

[Whopper_Sr]

Going with KG again here. I had Shaq as my follow up pick last round but I'm also looking at Hakeem, Bird, and West. If I penalized Hakeem less for hitting his peak form relatively later, I'd certainly put him ahead of Bird and West. Still, I'll stick with Hakeem for my 3rd choice. If there was more traction for West, I'd strongly consider him over Hakeem.

1. Kevin Garnett
2. Shaquille O'Neal
3. Hakeem Olajuwon

[SHAQ32]

Yet another antishaq post: Another thing I keep in mind is Shaq and LA's glory years coincided with a relative lull for the league and competition. The NBA needed franchise players but had to settle on Jalen Rose and Allan Houston.

[DQuinn1575]

Yet another antishaq post: Another thing I keep in mind is Shaq and LA's glory years coincided with a relative lull for the league and competition. The NBA needed franchise players but had to settle on Jalen Rose and Allan Houston.

Jalen Rose never made an all-star team, Houston made 2. Shaq competed against Duncan, Garnett at top of the league. Earlier Hakeem and Jordan. Once you hit the merger, it’s pretty hard to call one eta a lot weaker than another.

[Joao Saraiva]

Yet another antishaq post: Another thing I keep in mind is Shaq and LA's glory years coincided with a relative lull for the league and competition. The NBA needed franchise players but had to settle on Jalen Rose and Allan Houston.

2000 top 10 MVP voting
Shaq
Garnett
Mourning
Karl Malone
Tim Duncan
Gary Payton
Allen Iverson
Grant Hill
Chris Webber
Vince Carter

The list has two guys that are locks in the top 10 (Shaq and Duncan), then has two more in the top ever (Karl Malone and Kevin Garnett) and at least one more top 50 player (Gary Payton).

2001 top 10
You add to those
Kidd
McGrady
Kobe *on Shaq's team
David Robinson

Robinson is yet another likely top 20 all time guy. At most top 25.
Kidd is among the top 40 I guess.

2002 top 10
Dirk Nowitzki
Ben Wallace

Yet another top 20 with Dirk
A great defensive center in Ben Wallace.

I don't think the competition is bad at all during Shaq's 3 peat.

[DQuinn1575]

Would be interested to see that poll. Two 90s authors (Bjarkman and Taragano) each ranked Robertson 1 overall and 1999 AP poll (not limited to pros years iirc) had him second to MJ. Whilst those are the high-water marks they are illustrative of the slide you note, most notably versus Magic and Bird.

Like Garnett (though with cruder tools - i.e. WOWY) we have evidence of high impact (and not so good teammates) for prime and peak prouction years on their respective first teams.

Link here
https://www.newspapers.com/clip/61981058/el-paso-times/

Note they give forward and center voting, but not guard - one place I saw said Oscar got the majority of votes at guard, which makes sense as he got 14 votes for first, and 3 guys got 1. Note Magic got none. Bird was ranked #5 all-time in 1986. I would say this was pretty reflective of the consensus of the time - note the voting for the center spot was pretty close, and the arguments of Jabbar/Wilt/Russell were timeless since almost the time Jabbar joined the league.

Text - from OCR - non edited

The greatest Abdul-Jabbar No. 1 in poll DALLAS (AP) Los Angeles Lakers center Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is the greatest basketball player ever. A 60-member panel of experts polled by the Dallas Morning News says so. Eighteen of the panelists voted Abdul-Jab-J bar, playing in his 17th National Basketball Association season, the greatest player in the history of the game. The 7-foot-2 Abdul-Jabbar will play in his 15th All-Star game Sunday at Reunion Arena. "It's flattering," he said. "It's flattering even to be considered. That's as far as I go with it I don't get caught up in it I'm very pleased that I've done well enough that I would be considered, but I don't focus on that" The 38-year-old player finished first in a tight race, the Morning News said in a copyright story Friday. Guard Oscar Robertson, formerly of the Cincinnati Royals and Abdul-Jabbar's ex-teammate with the Milwaukee Bucks, placed a close second with 14 votes. Robertson was Abdul-Jabbar's choice as the top player of all time. ' The panel also chose Abdul-Jabbar as the The Da! las Morning News panel, comprised of 60 current and former general managers and coaches and former players in the N BA, spanned five decades of expertise. .
The panel's choices for top player:
1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar-, center, I8 votes
2. Oscar Robertson, guard, 14 votes
3. Bill Russell-canter, 13 votes '
4. Wilt Chamberlain, center, 6votes
5. Larry Bird , forward, 4 votes .
6. Elgin Baylor, forward, 2 votes
7. Bob Cousy, guard, 1 vote (tie) Jerry West, guard, 1 vote (tie) Bob Davles, guard, 1 vote

as player greatest center and listed Boston's Larry Bird at forward and Robertson at guard. In the balloting for top center, Abdul-Jabbar received 25-1/3 votes and Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell tied for second with 16-1/3votes each. George Mikan got two votes. Bird received 29 votes for top forward. Baylor got 22, Julius Erving of the Philadelphia 76ers seven, and Rick Barry and Bob Pettit one each. ,