2020 NBA Draft Prospects: Thread II

[Rookie-Mistake]

I'm also noticing that were not saying much, not pumping up the potential picks or anyone in particular, meaning;

1. We're playing it very cool, to the point where it doesn't look like we're trying to convince other teams that they're potentially missing out on quality.

2. Gupta's recent comments give you the sense that they're comfortable with with this draft class.

I think Rosas will trade down/out of this draft (not because of lack of quality) but he has a time limit on KAT/DLO and won't be after a project.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6003 using RealGM mobile app

[Klomp]

Read on Twitter

[urinesane]

Read on Twitter

I don't think anyone doubts that he CAN do some high level things, it's WILL he consistently do it at the NBA level?

We just got rid of an all world talent with a faulty spark plug. It remains to be seen if Edwards will need to "get up" for games and have the ability to stay locked in the majority of games (I don't expect most players to be locked in on every possession).

[Dewey]

Gupta!!!

Read on Twitter

Phew. I can relax now

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6003 using RealGM mobile app

Code for: “ We are ready to pick for somebody… We’re just waiting for the best deal“

[horaceworthy]

Number 17

Year Player School/Country – Team

2019 Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Virginia Tech – New Orleans Pelicans (1 start in 1 season) avg 1 start per season
2018 Donte DiVincenzo, Villanova – Milwaukee Bucks (24 games in 2 seasons) avg 12 starts per season
2017 D.J. Wilson, Michigan – Milwaukee Bucks (3 starts in 3 seasons) avg 1 start per season
2016 Wade Baldwin, Vanderbilt – Memphis Grizzlies (1 start in 3 seasons) avg .33 start per season
2015 Rashad Vaughn, UNLV – Milwaukee Bucks (8 starts in 3 seasons) avg 2.66 starts per season
2014 James Young, Kentucky – Boston Celtics (0 starts in 4 seasons) avg 0 starts per season
2013 Dennis Schroeder, Germany – Atlanta Hawks (305 starts in 7 seasons) avg 43.5 starts per season
2012 Tyler Zeller, UNC – Dallas Mavericks (166 starts in 8 seasons) avg 20.75 starts per season
2011 Iman Shumpert, Georgia Tech – New York Knicks (382 starts in 9 seasons) avg 42.4 starts per season
2010 Kevin Seraphin, France – Chicago Bulls (34 starts in 7 seasons) avg 4.85 starts per season

2000’s

2009 Jrue Holiday, UCLA – Philadelphia 76ers (640 starts in 11 seasons) avg 58 starts per season
2008 Roy Hibbert, Georgetown – Toronto Raptors (586 starts in 8 seasons) avg 73.25 starts per season
2007 Sean Williams, Boston College – New Jersey Nets (29 starts (all in 1st season) in 4 seasons) 7.25 starts per season
2006 Shawne Williams, Memphis – Indiana Pacers (58 starts in 7 seasons) avg 8.25 per season
2005 Danny Granger, New Mexico – Indiana Pacers (475 starts in 10 seasons) avg 47.5 starts per season
2004 Josh Smith, Oak Hill Academy H.S. VA – Atlanta Hawks (772 starts in 13 seasons) avg 59.4 starts per season
2003 Zarko Cabarkapa, Serbia & Montenegro – Phoenix Suns (4 starts in 3 seasons) avg 1.33 starts per season
2002 Juan Dixon, Maryland – Washington Wizards (77 starts in 7 seasons) avg 11 starts per season
2001 Michael Bradley, Villanova – Toronto Raptors (13 starts in 5 seasons) avg 2.6 starts per season
2000 Desmond Mason, Oklahoma State – Seattle Supersonics (385 starts in 10 seasons) avg 38.5 starts per season


So based on the last 20 drafts the 17th pick has a 35% chance of being what I would consider a consistent starter in the league. In the last 10 drafts this number is only 20% which means there's an 80% chance the pick at 17 won't be a starter.

My point being, of course you look for the best player you can get at this position, but having an expectation of finding a starter at this pick doesn't jive with the actual odds of finding one.

Great post! I've said it for years, the draft is so over rated unless you're at the top....and then it still can be.

That's not my takeaway from the list. I'd quibble a bit on consistent starter being the bar to clear since that can be so circumstantial. If you can get a solid rotation piece outside the lottery, that's a real asset. The only player I think this would result in bolding is Donte DiVincenzo, who had a good season in the Bucks rotation this year.

I would also file NAW under Too Soon To Tell for now and not factor him into the equation.

The slight adjustment would put it at 8/19 and a 42% chance of a rotation player, which seems about the hit rate you'd expect for a pick outside the lottery.

The interesting aspect of the list to me, aside from guys with the same name going at #17 back to back years in 2006 and 2007 and the Bucks making the 17th pick 3 of the last 5 years, is that Hibbert, Granger, Holiday, and Josh Smith were all at least fringe all star level players at their peaks. 20% of the list reaching that level is higher than I would have expected.

[Jedzz]

That post does not list the good players that were passed and selected just a few spots after 17. just in recent drafts players like Collins, Thybulle, Lavert and Huerter. There will be good players at 17 available in every draft the GM just has to make the right selection.

This draft class is underated at this point with all the negativity it is getting.

I think it's a good exercise to see the past results at 17 but also agree Neeva, that it doesn't take into account players found later. The leading player of one of the Finals teams this season was a former #30 pick, and two more of their high minute players were undrafted completely. I agree, the GM's job is to find them.

This draft is loaded with high middle round talent getting discredited for some reason. I wouldn't even be surprsed to see another couple undrafted players from this season making a name for themselves in the next two years in the NBA.

The part I hope others can see in this is where everyone is hoping to improve bench shooting and bench defense and so what is wrong with a player at #17, or a player even at #1 overall being helpful positive bench players for a couple seasons here? Maybe they don't become good starters until year 3 or 4 of their career or ever. But they might be able to get things done off bench roles for Wolves.

Doing so would be a waste of time, because it would only lower the % of starters found out of players drafted.

My point wasn't to say you can't find quality players outside of the lottery, obviously history has shown that to be false. I was simply trying to get people to look at the stats in order to try and merge their expectations with reality. That doesn't mean we shouldn't hope that the team can find gems throughout the draft, but it does mean that statistically, we shouldn't expect it. Especially with our draft history (though hopefully Rosas and Gupta turn that around).

Remember my post came from someone saying that we should be able to find a starter with the #17 pick. I simply showed how often that has happened in the last 20 drafts at the #17 spot.

I see your point and would have to agree most of the time this is going to be the expectation. Your lists points at a reality. But I do think this draft is a bit more unique with the shear number of 6'5 to 6'8 players with great 3pt shots, some already with interesting game IQ shown in college if not refined play yet. I just don't have this need to ever start rookies and could see some of this size/shooting combinations of players working great to help our bench minutes and maybe surprising if they find the right one.

[Midw35t]

I really want to get Mason Jones on this team.

https://www.overtimeheroics.net/index.php/2020/05/29/scouting-report-mason-jones/

[Macwolf527]

I'm also noticing that were not saying much, not pumping up the potential picks or anyone in particular, meaning;

1. We're playing it very cool, to the point where it doesn't look like we're trying to convince other teams that they're potentially missing out on quality.

2. Gupta's recent comments give you the sense that they're comfortable with with this draft class.

I think Rosas will trade down/out of this draft (not because of lack of quality) but he has a time limit on KAT/DLO and won't be after a project.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6003 using RealGM mobile app

I’m really warming up to this thought as well. We picked up some interesting undrafted free agents last year in Reid and McLaughlin. Not to mention the young players we already have on the roster like Vanderbilt, Culver, and Nowell. We only have so many minutes available to develop players. The big question is, where would these players fall among the current draft. If there’s no sizable difference, then you’re better off working with the players you have a book on already. I really see the Wolves trading for veteran players/future picks in order to move the needle towards the playoffs. No one in this draft is going to help much towards that goal, but only chew up minutes of development. We’ll see soon.

[UnFadeable21]

Read on Twitter

?s=21

[DaMplsKid]

Not sure which thread to post this in but, With the T-Wolves open to trade talks does this mean Wiseman is not their guy? To me he is really the only guy you "have" to take at #1. I think Golden State will pick him in a second if we pass on him and if not the Hornets are going to. So if the Wolves really wanted him we would be taking trade offers. Just trying to read between the tea leaves.

[Shaka_Zulu]

Not sure which thread to post this in but, With the T-Wolves open to trade talks does this mean Wiseman is not their guy? To me he is really the only guy you "have" to take at #1. I think Golden State will pick him in a second if we pass on him and if not the Hornets are going to. So if the Wolves really wanted him we would be taking trade offers. Just trying to read between the tea leaves.

If any other top 10 pick team but us have the nr 1 pick, he would be the on lock nr 1 pick (maybe not for Suns too?). But because we have Kat at his position as our young franchise icon, it feels kinda tough pick to make, since twin towers arent really viable options anymore.

[Little Digger]

Kings drafted for need to make Fox happy..Passed on Luka..Now Vlade is the head French Fry cook at my local Burger King...

Take the guy you think will be the best player for the rest of this decade..you can always make moves later..Nellie selected Steph even though he didn’t fit at all with Monta..that worked out alright

[Neeva]

Centers lose value in This league , take the best guard/wing period. You can get centers who can’t shoot from distance or create For cheap.

Wiseman has the measurables but when I see him play I always am underwhelmed he will be good but won’t end up the best prospect from this draft at all, if charlotte gives you an extra asset for him and the third you take it and run.

But i think it’s more obvious Chatlotte wants Edwards or ball to fall to them.

[minimus]

Read on Twitter

The best finisher at rim of this draft.

[Baseline81]

Read on Twitter

[K4P]

Watch on YouTube

Lamelo is gonna be good

[KGdaBom]

Centers lose value in This league , take the best guard/wing period. You can get centers who can’t shoot from distance or create For cheap.

Wiseman has the measurables but when I see him play I always am underwhelmed he will be good but won’t end up the best prospect from this draft at all, if charlotte gives you an extra asset for him and the third you take it and run.

But i think it’s more obvious Chatlotte wants Edwards or ball to fall to them.

Charlotte clearly wants Wiseman.

[KGdaBom]

Watch on YouTube

Lamelo is gonna be good

No he isn't.

[Neeva]

Centers lose value in This league , take the best guard/wing period. You can get centers who can’t shoot from distance or create For cheap.

Wiseman has the measurables but when I see him play I always am underwhelmed he will be good but won’t end up the best prospect from this draft at all, if charlotte gives you an extra asset for him and the third you take it and run.

But i think it’s more obvious Chatlotte wants Edwards or ball to fall to them.

Charlotte clearly wants Wiseman.

Lets hope so because Rosas pulling an Ainge(getting his man and an extra asset) would be the best possible outcome for the Wolves but hopefully Rosas won’t waste the asset like Ainge did with Langford.

[Neeva]

It is going to be difficult for Rosas to pass on Edwards he is so explosive and has so much potential defensively and shooting wise. I just wish he was 3-4 inches taller.