2020 Draft

[Ruzious]

What I like about Bane's shots in games is - it's so effortless - like the Curry brothers... from out to 30 feet. He's always ready to shoot and just flicks his wrist - can do it off the dribble or via catch and shoot. He's got a very short wingspan (6'4 on a 6'6 body), and I wonder if that actually helps, because that shortens any windup needed.

[Shoe]

Achiuwa's offensive outlook isn't that bleak in my opinion, at least he has variety like in this string of highlights against Cincinnati - a drive left, corner 3, backdoor cut, backdoor lob, post up, fast break. There's at least some potential there.

Spoiler:

Here is a string of Okongwu's offensive highlights to contrast with Achiuwa's. His comfort with his back to the basket and that mid range jumper are the big separators.

Spoiler:

Wizards desperately need some rim protection/rebounding/defense so I'm not too worried about eithers offensive production.

[WizarDynasty]

Most likely picks at 9

wings: Devin Vassell, Aaron Nesmith, Saddiq Bey

bigs: Onyeka Okongwu, Precious Achiuwa, Jalen Smith

guards: only if one slides which seems unlikely with Pistons and Knicks before us.

The top 9 seems locked. If it's not Okongwu who falls, I can see us picking Killian Hayes or Tyrese Haliburton, or Isaac Okoro or Obi Toppin. Those guys should be high up on the Wiz big board that they immediately pick whomever is left. Some wildcards could be Aleksej Pokusevski, Tyrese Maxey, RJ Hampton. Our most likely selections seem like role players with no all star potential but good production.

From all the mocks I've seen, it seems a pretty sure bet that the following players will be gone before we draft. I'm not saying they are the top 5, but it looks like they'll all go before #9:

Edwards
Wiseman
Avdija
Ball
Toppin

The next group of guys include:

Okongwu
Hayes
Halliburton
Okoro
Vassell
Achiuwa

I didn't see any of the following names appear in the top 8. They will all be there at #9 if we want them:

Williams
Saddiq Bey
Nesmith
Lewis Jr.
Maxey
Hampton
Smith

So it looks like we will be picking from that middle group (or possibly someone from the bottom group if we like them better). Three of them will be gone when we pick, and three will still be on the board. Also, it is pretty likely that one or both of Halliburton and Hayes will be among the three gone when we pick, given the need for guards from Detroit and New York.

Ranking the 6 players in the middle group in order of preference, I would go:

Okongwu
Achiuwa
Okoro
Halliburton
Vassell
Hayes

Since one of Halliburton or Hayes is likely to be gone, it's a pretty sure bet we can land one of Okongwu, Achiwua or Okoro. I'm okay with any of them. Frankly, I'd be okay with Halliburton too.

Great breakdown. As we get closer I think the 9 pick will come down to Okongwu or Achiuwa. I cannot see us trading down. The Wiz front office I believe are much higher on guys like Robinson, Schofield, Wagner, Pacesniks than anyone on this forum. I imagine they see 9, 37, and one or two undrafted guys as more than enough rookie additions.

Achiuwa's offensive outlook isn't that bleak in my opinion, at least he has variety like in this string of highlights against Cincinnati - a drive left, corner 3, backdoor cut, backdoor lob, post up, fast break. There's at least some potential there.

I don't see anyone in eastern conference that can run with us if we have Achiuawa at the five. The guy is like Dennis Rodman with offense. He's like a combination of scotty pippen and dennis rodman. Guess you young guys don't know who the real engines are behind championships teams. Guys like Achiuawa give you an advantage on every possession, because no one else can match with their combination and they cover alot of your holes. We have bryant so Big O doesn't feel as much a hole. But Achiuawa and Rui running with wall and beal on each possession, there is no way that an nba center and most powerforwards can keep up. And even more, Achiuawa is going to get back on defense and anchor way faster than big O. Yes I would like a more dynamic player at the three position than Troy Brown, but Achiuawa and Rui both can cover the forward spots. MOre importantly we need a dennis rodman player that can grab rebounds outside of his position. We need someone with elite foot speed for switches on pick and roles and we need someone who has stamina that can get back before everyone on defense and not complain about not getting the ball. Finally we have bryant signed for at least another 2 years so we have a big against heavy centers. Icing on the cake is that Achiuawa has an elite first step and hip bend, and actually reads what the on ball defenders is doing and reacts to it. The only thing i worry about is that we have someone like the knicks take him before us and have amare stoudamire assistant coach ...coach him him up even more. then we have to actually face him for the next decade. That's what looks like the hidden plan in NY. That's what i would be concerned about. Obvious if he's gone, then we could consider Big O. Big O is a duplication of what we already have for the most part. But once Achiuawa is gone with Knicks pick, there is no else like him in the draft. No 6'9 with huge wingspan and elite first step.

Big O is nice consolidation prize, he does have good energy, works hard, and I guess he does things 100 times better than thomas Bryant? Is that the consensus on the board. that Big O does everything better than Big O. I don't really see Big O as the first player down the court defensively on each possession, he seems like he jogs alot getting back on defense. Is he going to get those shots off against 7 footers in the nba? With Achiuwa, you know he has an elite first step to blow by even small forwards in the nba, he will torch traditional bigs. But since most of Big O's game is inside, he is only 6'9 with average standing reach. He doesn't have much advantage in terms of length inside so he will have to rely on quickness and footwork for the majority of his points. Now he reminds of a much smaller tim duncan offensively. Standing reach and quick leaping and footwork is most important for big. tim duncan had all three. Maybe big O has a few more inches to grow? If he was 6'11 with 9'2 or 9'3 standing reach. those couple of inches would allow him to easily get his shot off in the paint. But reports are that is standing reach is well below that. I would have liked to see Big O against an athletic seven footer weight 250lbs or more and see how he performed. Did he dominate this center on the boards?

[payitforward]

...As we get closer I think the 9 pick will come down to Okongwu or Achiuwa. I cannot see us trading down. The Wiz front office I believe are much higher on guys like Robinson, Schofield, Wagner, Pacesniks than anyone on this forum....

Once you make a choice for a guy you are invested both in him & in your own choice -- it's hard to be objective. So I'm sure you are right -- & you can add Rui to the list.

But that doesn't mean they are correct. If any 1 of the 4 guys you mention becomes an overall good NBA player it'll be a huge surprise. Enormous. 2 of them? Virtually inconceivable.

OTOH, I'm sure Tommy has talked trade down, trade up, etc. with a zillion teams. He said he was going to. So... who knows? Maybe it'll happen.

[payitforward]

Question: is anyone here an ESPN "insider?"

If so, I would absolutely love to see Givony's mock draft. Copy it please & post it here.

[DCZards]

Wizards desperately need some rim protection/rebounding/defense so I'm not too worried about eithers offensive production.

This.

I know conventional wisdom is to take the best player available if you're picking at 9. But NEED simply cannot be overlooked. Until the Zards get better at defense, rim protection and rebounding it won't matter how well Beal, Wall, Brown, Rui, Bryant, etc. play. We'll still suck.

The only non-big man I might take over Ogonkwu and Achiuwa is Haliburton, who does seem to have an NBA-ready game. Otherwise here's my short list.

1. Okongwu
1A. Achiuwa
2. Saddiq Bey

I know most here would consider it a reach to take Bey at 9 but I really like his combo of defense, 3 pt shooting and size and strength. I'm intrigued by Okoro but his outside shooting is a big question mark.

Folks here have sorta convinced me that Vassell might not have the physical makeup (at least at this point) to be an outstanding NBA player.

[WizarDynasty]

Wizards desperately need some rim protection/rebounding/defense so I'm not too worried about eithers offensive production.

This.

I know conventional wisdom is to take the best player available if you're picking at 9. But NEED simply cannot be overlooked. Until the Zards get better at defense, rim protection and rebounding it won't matter how well Beal, Wall, Brown, Rui, Bryant, etc. play. We'll still suck.

The only non-big man I might take over Ogonkwu and Achiuwa is Haliburton, who does seem to have an NBA-ready game. Otherwise here's my short list.

1. Okongwu
1A. Achiuwa
2. Saddiq Bey

I know most here would consider it a reach to take Bey at 9 but I really like his combo of defense, 3 pt shooting and size and strength. I'm intrigued by Okoro but his outside shooting is a big question mark.

Folks here have sorta convinced me that Vassell might not have the physical makeup (at least at this point) to be an outstanding NBA player.

Saddiq Bey is ok, but not having that elite explosive first step, and below the rim game. He seems to have alot of the same issues as troy brown. I like his hip bend, and patience. But again, not having an explosive first step his huge impediment to becoming an elite wing player in the nba. That first step is something that can't be taught and transforms the entire way a defense guards you for the rest of your career. If we got Bey at discount then I would consider it, say we got two picks and the second pick was bey, but not having an elite first step means he is not going to be a difference maker long term. Really similar to Troy Brown.

[Ruzious]

Wasserman at Bleacher Report always has interesting stuff: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2915414-2020-nba-draft-buzz-emerging-point-guards-and-latest-rumors

He says the Wiz are thinking like a lot of us - supposedly want Okongwu and if he's not there, they'll look to trade the pick - doesn't say up or down.

Poku's moving up (duh) above 20.

Payton Prichard is getting a lot of 1st round buzz.

Patrick Williams is on Detroit's radar at 7!

[bsilver]

Question: is anyone here an ESPN "insider?"

If so, I would absolutely love to see Givony's mock draft. Copy it please & post it here.

I’m not an insider, but the link below to nba.com, has the main mock drafts including Givorny’s. His draft is dated Aug 21, which is in line with what you see at espn.com, where you cant see his draft, but can see that the content is 70 days old. Not particularly useful.

https://www.nba.com/news/2020-consensus-mock-draft

[bsilver]

Wasserman at Bleacher Report always has interesting stuff: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2915414-2020-nba-draft-buzz-emerging-point-guards-and-latest-rumors

He says the Wiz are thinking like a lot of us - supposedly want Okongwu and if he's not there, they'll look to trade the pick - doesn't say up or down.

Poku's moving up (duh) above 20.

Payton Prichard is getting a lot of 1st round buzz.

Patrick Williams is on Detroit's radar at 7!

Makes you wonder why Hayes and Haliburton are rated higher than Kira Lewis Jr. Maybe Lewis is the best pg prospect. Then there’s LaMelo Ball. Not convinced he’s so special.

[Ruzious]

Wasserman at Bleacher Report always has interesting stuff: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2915414-2020-nba-draft-buzz-emerging-point-guards-and-latest-rumors

He says the Wiz are thinking like a lot of us - supposedly want Okongwu and if he's not there, they'll look to trade the pick - doesn't say up or down.

Poku's moving up (duh) above 20.

Payton Prichard is getting a lot of 1st round buzz.

Patrick Williams is on Detroit's radar at 7!

Makes you wonder why Hayes and Haliburton are rated higher than Kira Lewis Jr. Maybe Lewis is the best pg prospect. Then there’s LaMelo Ball. Not convinced he’s so special.

Hayes and Hali are the best PG prospects in the draft, imo, but Lewis is very good. Lewis is a better shooter than Hayes at this point and could possibly sneak in ahead of him in the draft.

If I'm a GM, I stay away from Melo. I got a bad feeling about his maturity. Lonzo was so mature, he could escape the trappings of his father. Melo... not so much, imo. It's not his fault he's got a crazy father, but the situation is what it is.

[pcbothwel]

Wasserman at Bleacher Report always has interesting stuff: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2915414-2020-nba-draft-buzz-emerging-point-guards-and-latest-rumors

He says the Wiz are thinking like a lot of us - supposedly want Okongwu and if he's not there, they'll look to trade the pick - doesn't say up or down.

Poku's moving up (duh) above 20.

Payton Prichard is getting a lot of 1st round buzz.

Patrick Williams is on Detroit's radar at 7!

Makes you wonder why Hayes and Haliburton are rated higher than Kira Lewis Jr. Maybe Lewis is the best pg prospect. Then there’s LaMelo Ball. Not convinced he’s so special.

I have Lewis as the number 1A PG on my board along with with Hayes. (Haliburton SHOULD be up here, but I need to see his adjustments on his shooting off the dribble)

Remember, Lewis is a year younger than Halburton and younger than Wall and Fox were coming out as Freshman. If we had a hole at PG, I wouldnt hesitate to take him at 9. My hesitation is that we have other needs and the PG crop in the 25-35 range is ridiculous with Tre Jones, Pritchard, Flynn, etc.

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=kira-lewis-jr--john-wall--de-aaron-fox

BTW... Jones has some real Lowry to his game. Competitor from an elite program that doesnt have elite vision, but high level defender that has more offensive upside than people realize. All the teams in 18-28 would be a great fit for him.

Patrick Williams - I dont see it. Good, but not great athlete, decent size/length, below average skill & instincts, and doesnt appear to have a killer mindset. I dont have him in my top 30... But maybe people view his age and FT% and see upside

Trade Down: If Okongwu isnt there and we trade down (9 to Boston for 14, 26, 47), I would take
Achiuwa/Jalen Smith @ 14
Maxey/Tre Jones/Bey @ 26
Riller/Flynn/Tillman/Pritchard @ 37
Mason Jones/Hinton/Mays @ 47

[payitforward]

The page doesn't list full drafts or even full Round 1s -- just the lottery in each case. Of the 10, Precious goes #9 on 2 of them, #10 on 1 of them, #11 on 2 of them, & #14 on 1 -- between 10 & 11 on average.

The other 4 don't have him going in the lottery: he goes #15 on 1 of them #16 on 2 of them, #27 on 1 of them -- between 17 & 18.

Overall, he averages being picked just about @14.

OTOH, here are ESPN's 100 top prospects: https://www.espn.com/nba/draft/bestavailable -- he's the 12th best prospect according to ESPN.

[Ruzious]

Maybe I'm nuts, but at 14 and 26 in pcb's senario, I think I go with SBey and TBey. That might be a smidge high for both of them, but I think they'd complement each other, and I like that both play defense, and they're both that 6'8 220ish size that fits with defensive versatility. TBey makes up for SBey's lack of rebounding, and SBey makes up for TBey's lack of shooting. I like pcb's options at 37 and 47 - if we can get Hinton at 47, that's a steal, imo.

[doclinkin]

BTW... Jones has some real Lowry to his game. Competitor from an elite program that doesnt have elite vision, but high level defender that has more offensive upside than people realize. All the teams in 18-28 would be a great fit for him.

Cassius Winston of Michigan State reminds me of Lowry. Strong if ground bound, savvy as hell. Mature since his freshman year, now seasoned. Knows how to set up a play with all of his other players as chess pieces. Solid back up point to run a bench mob.

[doclinkin]

Pokusevski really has remarkable feet and balance for a guy that tall. Solid legs, especially compared to his lean upper frame, so a surprisingly good base and center of gravity. He's a 7 foot shooting guard right now, small forward I suppose, but really is fun to watch.

[nate33]

The page doesn't list full drafts or even full Round 1s -- just the lottery in each case. Of the 10, Precious goes #9 on 2 of them, #10 on 1 of them, #11 on 2 of them, & #14 on 1 -- between 10 & 11 on average.

The other 4 don't have him going in the lottery: he goes #15 on 1 of them #16 on 2 of them, #27 on 1 of them -- between 17 & 18.

Overall, he averages being picked just about @14.

OTOH, here are ESPN's 100 top prospects: https://www.espn.com/nba/draft/bestavailable -- he's the 12th best prospect according to ESPN.

I just listened to Chad Ford's podcast with John Hollinger. Neither were very high on Achiuwa.

Chad thinks he'll go around 20th. (That's his estimate of the actual draft, not his personal ranking of him.)

Hollinger thinks he has promise as a smallball 5, but there's no reason to take him over Paul Reed, who does everything Achiuwa does defensively, plus he's not as awful on offense.

[DCZards]

Wizards desperately need some rim protection/rebounding/defense so I'm not too worried about eithers offensive production.

This.

I know conventional wisdom is to take the best player available if you're picking at 9. But NEED simply cannot be overlooked. Until the Zards get better at defense, rim protection and rebounding it won't matter how well Beal, Wall, Brown, Rui, Bryant, etc. play. We'll still suck.

The only non-big man I might take over Ogonkwu and Achiuwa is Haliburton, who does seem to have an NBA-ready game. Otherwise here's my short list.

1. Okongwu
1A. Achiuwa
2. Saddiq Bey

I know most here would consider it a reach to take Bey at 9 but I really like his combo of defense, 3 pt shooting and size and strength. I'm intrigued by Okoro but his outside shooting is a big question mark.

Folks here have sorta convinced me that Vassell might not have the physical makeup (at least at this point) to be an outstanding NBA player.

Saddiq Bey is ok, but not having that elite explosive first step, and below the rim game. He seems to have alot of the same issues as troy brown. I like his hip bend, and patience. But again, not having an explosive first step his huge impediment to becoming an elite wing player in the nba. That first step is something that can't be taught and transforms the entire way a defense guards you for the rest of your career. If we got Bey at discount then I would consider it, say we got two picks and the second pick was bey, but not having an elite first step means he is not going to be a difference maker long term. Really similar to Troy Brown.

Agree on S. Bey not having an explosive first step. Some here (I believe Ruz was one of them) has compared him to NBA all-star Kris Middleton, which is probably a pretty apt comparison given that Middleton also is not that quick but is a great shooter, like I expect Bey to be at the next level.

I love the way Bey moves his feet on D. He'll be a better defender than Middleton.

[payitforward]

Glad you brought up Reed, nate.

I spent some time today looking at draft analysis footage of him on youtube. I did it, because it seems to me he is getting insanely undervalued. That espn big board of prospects I pointed to...? He's the 53d best prospect on those pages!

I can't figure out the rating gyrations this year -- maybe it's because of how long the draft has been delayed? -- but just seems strange...

[WizarDynasty]

The page doesn't list full drafts or even full Round 1s -- just the lottery in each case. Of the 10, Precious goes #9 on 2 of them, #10 on 1 of them, #11 on 2 of them, & #14 on 1 -- between 10 & 11 on average.

The other 4 don't have him going in the lottery: he goes #15 on 1 of them #16 on 2 of them, #27 on 1 of them -- between 17 & 18.

Overall, he averages being picked just about @14.

OTOH, here are ESPN's 100 top prospects: https://www.espn.com/nba/draft/bestavailable -- he's the 12th best prospect according to ESPN.

I just listened to Chad Ford's podcast with John Hollinger. Neither were very high on Achiuwa.

Chad thinks he'll go around 20th. (That's his estimate of the actual draft, not his personal ranking of him.)

Hollinger thinks he has promise as a smallball 5, but there's no reason to take him over Paul Reed, who does everything Achiuwa does defensively, plus he's not as awful on offense.

Look, guys I been doing this for a long time. Never trust draft analysis. Go to nbadraft.net and look at actual drafts, then go to google and type in

2009 http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/06/22/2009-nba-mock-draft-version-30-updated-consensus/ consensus mock draft. We looked up in this draft and had number one pick and selected John Wall.
You can even look at my old post. There was consensus that Thabeet was a top 3 player, the next dikembe mutombo. YOu look at film and he did nothings special offensively. they thought he was going to be a monster shot blocker but he didn't do it in college against elite competition. Always trust your eyes. They had this guy ranked over James Harden. They had a guy Jordan Hill and said he was the next Chris Bosh. They had a guy name Dejuan Blair who this entire board was in love with. I wanted some guy name Aminu because he was long defender 7'4 wingspan, 9'2 standing reach and could guard defender. Espn had ricky rubio ranked higher than James Harden. That's 2009.

Wizard's had the top pick in the 2nd round and not one player in the entire 2nd round was a longterm difference maker. Taj Gibson at pick 26 was the only bigman outside the top 10 that had any meaningful longterm impact in league as defender and rebounder.

In 2010 http://www.scoresreport.com/2010/06/14/2010-nba-consensus-mock-draft-614/ they had Evan Turner and Wesley Johnson as top 5 picks. Wes Johnson was suppose to be the next Shaun Marion. Evan Turner was suppose to be like Magic Johnson. So again, Espn predicted these players to be franchise type players. They had Paul
George at the end of the lottery. the best player to pick was eric bledsoe to run with John wall instead of Kevin Seraphin and trevor Booker. That year the wizard spent extra money to get additional draft picks. Looking back really shows just how badly they understood the talent pool. What would have been a great GM move, some how getting an additional pick and grabbing Paul George. This is a typical case of GM maneuvering to prove that he is doing his job but clearly didn't know the true value of the draft. Selected an undersized p/f with great speed and agility who showed you nothing in college in Trevor Booker.

2011--https://www.scoresreport.com/2011/06/17/nba-draft-consensus-mock-draft/ Bertan is only player who is having any effect, basically as a 3 point specialist from entire 2nd round.
This draft duped minnesota into selected derrick williams number 2 overall. He was an undersized p/f that didn't have a quick first step but had bounce.

Wizard draft a european player in lottery as the next blake griffin. The guy had no creation skils and only caught lobs and we drafted him in the lottery. Espn had him and derrick williams ranked higher than K. Leonard --who measured out to have the largest hands ever. they even had brandon knight ranked higher than kemba walker. they had bismack-- foreign player, jimmer fredette, alec burke, and marcus morris all ranked higher than Klay thompson. Imagine if the wizards had someone in the organization with skill to actually select klay thompson at number 5 or even K Leonard and going against the consensus mock drafts!!!

I could go on and on. A key measurable to help you avoid bust is to look at standing reach and wingspan, look at if the player and explosive first step. Key measurable that we saw with Derrick Williams--wingspan for p/f should be at least 7'4 for lotto pick. 7'1. Standing reach 9'3. Derrick williams- 9;0 standing reach. Great for small forward, crappy for p/f. Had he been evaluated as small forward, his horrible perimeter defense would have been exposed.
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Watch on YouTube

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I compare Derrick Williams this from 2011. Okongwu is basically the next derrick Williams. (People keep comparing okongwu to bam and this is ridiculous. Go look at Bam's highschool tapes. This guy was crossing between his legs, flying through the air catching lobs. Jumping off one foot and finishing. This guy Okongwu is pulling himself on the rim everytime he dunks. LOl. and then all of his shots are flips shots below rim. HIs head is very far from rim when he dunks and uses his long arms alot. Okongwu is not explosive like Bam. If you pay attention to the way Bam runs vs Okongwu, Okongwu is heavy footed when he runs. Look at Bam and how light footed he is when he runs. Light footed shows his quick first step. Okongwu is heavy footed compared to Bam.
We have Wiseman as basically the next thabeet. You always have the board looking at picking guys in late teens and thinking that these guys are going to be impact players long term. I already stated who the longterm impact players are and there are no superstars in this draft. Luckily you might have 1 or 2 allstars. Anthony Edwards if he decides to play defense and show high BBIQ, OBI Toppin if he is in the right system and that's it. you have a scotty pippen utility player in Achiuwa.

Then you have some bench players 6th man types Okongwu or solid role player , lamelo, okoro, pritchard. cole anthony, Ramsey,

So again compare okongu to derrick williams and thomas robinson--undersized p/f hyped up for the draft by elite front offices just so the player they want falls to them. See wiseman to thabeet. okoro to michael gilchrist.

This draft will go just like the 2009, 2010, and 2011. History always shows how wrong they are when they don't use measureable. p/f 7'4 wingspan, 9'2 standing reach,
guards and small forwards-- elite first step, hip bend, high shooting elbow, 7'0 wingspan 8'8 standing reach. They have done it in college against tough defenses. Always be weary of bigs that play below the rim like okongwu. They always get hyped.
ESPN can never be trusted.

Will the Grunfeld/Shepherd office pass on a trade of Beal for Harden... or Beal for Anthony Edwards? Anthony is developing the same bad knee has Beal due to landing mechanics, but Beal does have a much better hip bend in his shot which means Anthony is going to deteriorate even faster. Poor hip bend keeps you from landing correctly and saving your knees in a jumpshot.