2020 Draft

[payitforward]

...Trade Down: If Okongwu isnt there and we trade down (9 to Boston for 14, 26, 47), I would take ...

I can't see any way Boston would give that, alas.... Essentially, they'd be trading the #26 & #47 to move up 5 spots from 14 to 9.

I question whether they'd need to give up the #26 alone for that benefit. Or whether they'd give the #14, #30 & #47 in return for #9.

Of course, we could always try! & in any case, I'd say there are enough good choices at #226 that one or more of them would be there at #30. &, if we really did want that #47, we might add a little money to make the deal work.

Achiuwa/Jalen Smith @ 14
Maxey/Tre Jones/Bey @ 26
Riller/Flynn/Tillman/Pritchard @ 37
Mason Jones/Hinton/Mays @ 47

Could add a few others, for that matter! But, this is a good list.

[Ruzious]

The page doesn't list full drafts or even full Round 1s -- just the lottery in each case. Of the 10, Precious goes #9 on 2 of them, #10 on 1 of them, #11 on 2 of them, & #14 on 1 -- between 10 & 11 on average.

The other 4 don't have him going in the lottery: he goes #15 on 1 of them #16 on 2 of them, #27 on 1 of them -- between 17 & 18.

Overall, he averages being picked just about @14.

OTOH, here are ESPN's 100 top prospects: https://www.espn.com/nba/draft/bestavailable -- he's the 12th best prospect according to ESPN.

I just listened to Chad Ford's podcast with John Hollinger. Neither were very high on Achiuwa.

Chad thinks he'll go around 20th. (That's his estimate of the actual draft, not his personal ranking of him.)

Hollinger thinks he has promise as a smallball 5, but there's no reason to take him over Paul Reed, who does everything Achiuwa does defensively, plus he's not as awful on offense.

I'm not high on Reed. He doesn't have the physical explosiveness and strength that Achiuwa has. I think 15-20 is reasonable for Achiuwa, and 35-40 is reasonable for Reed.

[Jamaaliver]

I'm not high on Reed. He doesn't have the physical explosiveness and strength that Achiuwa has. I think 15-20 is reasonable for Achiuwa, and 35-40 is reasonable for Reed.

In your view, how comparable is Paul Reed to Brandon Clarke?

[Jamaaliver]

Watch on YouTube

[Jamaaliver]

A source suggests the Washington Wizards are hoping USC's Onyeka Okongwu falls to them at No. 9. If he isn't there, they'd be interested in trading the pick.

Bleacher Report

Watch on YouTube

[Ruzious]

I'm not high on Reed. He doesn't have the physical explosiveness and strength that Achiuwa has. I think 15-20 is reasonable for Achiuwa, and 35-40 is reasonable for Reed.

In your view, how comparable is Paul Reed to Brandon Clarke?

Clarke is a far better athlete.

I admit, at the beginning of the season, I said Reed might become this year's Clarke.

[pcbothwel]

...Trade Down: If Okongwu isnt there and we trade down (9 to Boston for 14, 26, 47), I would take ...

I can't see any way Boston would give that, alas.... Essentially, they'd be trading the #26 & #47 to move up 5 spots from 14 to 9.

I question whether they'd need to give up the #26 alone for that benefit. Or whether they'd give the #14, #30 & #47 in return for #9.

PIF, I understand how you value draft picks, but your valuation is WAY off. Precedent matters here, as does the draft board.

2014: Bulls traded #16, #19, and a future 1st for #11
2016: Suns traded #13, #28, and Bogdan (Drafted 27 the year before) for #8
2017: Blazers traded #15 and #20 for #10
2018: Suns traded #16 + Heat unprotected 2021 1st for #10
2019: 76ers traded #24 + #33 for #20

Taking into account the above, we would be getting a deal at below market for a top 8-10 pick.

Now, How about the board:
In the 9-13 spots (The opportunity cost for players), we could very well see Haliburton/Vassell, Achiuwa/Jalen Smith, Bey, and Nesmith all come off the board. Thats some solid prospects we would be giving up on getting for a late 1st. Most everyone agrees where the value is in this draft... 6-14, and 25-40.

Again, this isnt us calling Boston, but Boston calling us.

BTW, we dont get back into it on Maxey, but I urge you to reconsider before its too late to get on the train

Here is his and Edwards workout last night... Im sold and have been. Im buying his defense, shot, and overall scoring prowess. As for the intangibles... Off the charts
Guy is a DOG. Up before 5am and busting ass. All of here have watched enough sports know that work ethic and ability to up their game when the lights are on are two attributes that truly make professionals. He locks himself in the gym on off days, and competes every minute on game days.

Somebody gets a steal in the 15-20 range on him.... Sig it.

Watch on YouTube

[payitforward]

I'm not high on Reed. He doesn't have the physical explosiveness and strength that Achiuwa has. I think 15-20 is reasonable for Achiuwa, and 35-40 is reasonable for Reed.

In your view, how comparable is Paul Reed to Brandon Clarke?

Ruz will answer for himself, but, in my case, I can't see any way to put Reed anywhere near the level of Brandon Clarke. Clarke's college numbers in 2018-19 were the best I've seen (outside of Zion's) in many, many years. They are really kind of amazing -- & of course he came into the league & demonstrated they were real by having an unbelievable rookie year.

Still, on the numbers Paul Reed is quite good -- moreover, his main flaw (to me at least...) is his shooting form, & it looks like something that could be improved with coaching & repetition. He's quite a good defensive player, & one would hope to see that translate to the league.

Most notable, though, is how Reed has dropped in the mocks & boards. As I pointed out, ESPN ranks him the 53d best prospect. That I can't understand at all! Ruz has him at 35-40 -- if we got Paul Reed at #37, I'd call it an exceptional value!

I don't see a natural reason to compare Reed with Achiuwa, btw. It is worth noting, however, that even though one guy has come out after his Junior year, while the other was a Freshman, Paul Reed is only 3 months older than Precious Achiuwa.

[payitforward]

In your view, how comparable is Paul Reed to Brandon Clarke?

Clarke is a far better athlete.

I admit, at the beginning of the season, I said Reed might become this year's Clarke.

In a way, he still might.

The most notable thing about Clarke was how extraordinarily underrated he was in last year's draft. That seems to be true of Reed as well.

[payitforward]

Here's a question that just occurred to me -- I wonder if anyone has a take on this:

Precious is a very promising player, no question. But, isn't Isaiah Stewart also quite promising?

Both guys are coming out after their Freshman year, but Precious is an "old" Freshman at 21, while Stewart is 19 -- almost 2 full years younger than Achiuwa. Both guys played a lot & put up very good numbers for Freshman. They're both described as stellar athletes as well.

Yet, Achiuwa is routinely mocked between 9-14 (usually closer to 9), while in those same mocks Stewart usually goes somewhere in the late 20's.

I don't have an opinion about this, I'm just interested in anyone's take on why this should be so.

[WizarDynasty]

In your view, how comparable is Paul Reed to Brandon Clarke?

Clarke is a far better athlete.

I admit, at the beginning of the season, I said Reed might become this year's Clarke.

In a way, he still might.

The most notable thing about Clarke was how extraordinarily underrated he was in last year's draft. That seems to be true of Reed as well.

Lol you guys are still talking about brandon clarke as if he is a starter material. The guys standing reach is 8'6 lol. He has the standing reach of a shooting guard. It's poor even for a small forward. That means he has to leave his feet at jump 8 inches just to get to the vertical size of an elite powerforward. Maybe he in small balls he could be your s/f p/f.

YOu guys should always factor in standing reach, and for a lotter pick p/f-- center it should 9'2 to 9'4 range.
dwight howard 9'4 standing reach.
Elton Brand 6'8 but had a 9'3 standing reach.
The longer your reach, easier for you stand tall and bother shots without leaving your feet. You also can get to rebounds faster than someone who has to leave their feet and jump just to get to the same spot in the air.
Combine elite foot work with elite standing reach.
you don't even need measurements, just watch film and see how far a players hands are from the net and how quickly his hands get to the ball before everyone else.
The guy with quick bounce and long standing reach always has an advantage.
Brandon Clarke should never be mention in the same sentence as nba starting powerforward for playoff team.

[Ruzious]

Clarke is a far better athlete.

I admit, at the beginning of the season, I said Reed might become this year's Clarke.

In a way, he still might.

The most notable thing about Clarke was how extraordinarily underrated he was in last year's draft. That seems to be true of Reed as well.

Lol you guys are still talking about brandon clarke as if he is a starter material. The guys standing reach is 8'6 lol. He has the standing reach of a shooting guard. It's poor even for a small forward. That means he has to leave his feet at jump 8 inches just to get to the vertical size of an elite powerforward. Maybe he in small balls he could be your s/f p/f.

YOu guys should always factor in standing reach, and for a lotter pick p/f-- center it should 9'2 to 9'4 range.
dwight howard 9'4 standing reach.
Elton Brand 6'8 but had a 9'3 standing reach.
The longer your reach, easier for you stand tall and bother shots without leaving your feet. You also can get to rebounds faster than someone who has to leave their feet and jump just to get to the same spot in the air.
Combine elite foot work with elite standing reach.
you don't even need measurements, just watch film and see how far a players hands are from the net and how quickly his hands get to the ball before everyone else.
The guy with quick bounce and long standing reach always has an advantage.
Brandon Clarke should never be mention in the same sentence as nba starting powerforward for playoff team.

I'm not a huge Clarke fan, but he's obviously good - and obviously better than Reed - which is all I said. Anyone who can tell the difference between a basketball and a hockey puck can tell that. Going by your criteria, he shouldn't be able to make a HS team. Therefore... who's off the most on this one?

[nate33]

Clarke is a far better athlete.

I admit, at the beginning of the season, I said Reed might become this year's Clarke.

In a way, he still might.

The most notable thing about Clarke was how extraordinarily underrated he was in last year's draft. That seems to be true of Reed as well.

Lol you guys are still talking about brandon clarke as if he is a starter material. The guys standing reach is 8'6 lol. He has the standing reach of a shooting guard. It's poor even for a small forward. That means he has to leave his feet at jump 8 inches just to get to the vertical size of an elite powerforward. Maybe he in small balls he could be your s/f p/f.

YOu guys should always factor in standing reach, and for a lotter pick p/f-- center it should 9'2 to 9'4 range.
dwight howard 9'4 standing reach.
Elton Brand 6'8 but had a 9'3 standing reach.
The longer your reach, easier for you stand tall and bother shots without leaving your feet. You also can get to rebounds faster than someone who has to leave their feet and jump just to get to the same spot in the air.
Combine elite foot work with elite standing reach.
you don't even need measurements, just watch film and see how far a players hands are from the net and how quickly his hands get to the ball before everyone else.
The guy with quick bounce and long standing reach always has an advantage.
Brandon Clarke should never be mention in the same sentence as nba starting powerforward for playoff team.

He was pretty damn productive in 22 minutes a game though (as a rookie). He averaged 19 and 10 per 36 with an ORtg of 127.

It's worth noting that he started in just 4 games and he was awful (2 points, 3 boards, ORtg of 70). That's a real small sample size though.

[payitforward]

...Trade Down: If Okongwu isnt there and we trade down (9 to Boston for 14, 26, 47), I would take ...

I can't see any way Boston would give that, alas.... Essentially, they'd be trading the #26 & #47 to move up 5 spots from 14 to 9.

I question whether they'd need to give up the #26 alone for that benefit. Or whether they'd give the #14, #30 & #47 in return for #9.

PIF, I understand how you value draft picks, but your valuation is WAY off. Precedent matters here, as does the draft board.

2014: Bulls traded #16, #19, and a future 1st for #11
2016: Suns traded #13, #28, and Bogdan (Drafted 27 the year before) for #8
2017: Blazers traded #15 and #20 for #10
2018: Suns traded #16 + Heat unprotected 2021 1st for #10
2019: 76ers traded #24 + #33 for #20

Taking into account the above, we would be getting a deal at below market for a top 8-10 pick....

Pcb -- I don't have a way to value draft picks! I just use http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2 because... it's there. Duh! & it's had some acceptance. But, neither Pelton's chart nor any other source can possibly be authoritative. Hence...

I absolutely LOVE your examples above!! I'd kill to trade our #9 for the #14,26 & 47! Make it happen!

(it'd be interesting to review those trades, now that pick numbers have been replaced by real players -- how'd they work out for the trade partners? Who tended to do better?)

...Again, this isnt us calling Boston, but Boston calling us.

Everybody calls everybody all the time -- what do these guys have to do except talk to each other. So, screw it, call Danny now.

Actually... can we find these guys' email addresses?

"Dear Danny -- I happened on some info you need -- Tommy Sheppard is ready to trade his #9 for your #14, 26, & 47. He'll probably ask for your R2 next year as well -- but hold out! If I were you, I'd get him on the line & jump on that deal. -- A Friend"

"Dear Tommy -- I just discovered something you should know: Danny Ainge can't use all his picks to add players; he is eager to move up in this draft. My source tells me he'd give his 14, 26 & 47 for your #9. He'll probably want to swap R2 picks next year -- but hold out! I'd get him on the line & jump on that deal. -- A Friend"

[nate33]

Here's a question that just occurred to me -- I wonder if anyone has a take on this:

Precious is a very promising player, no question. But, isn't Isaiah Stewart also quite promising?

Both guys are coming out after their Freshman year, but Precious is an "old" Freshman at 21, while Stewart is 19 -- almost 2 full years younger than Achiuwa. Both guys played a lot & put up very good numbers for Freshman. They're both described as stellar athletes as well.

Yet, Achiuwa is routinely mocked between 9-14 (usually closer to 9), while in those same mocks Stewart usually goes somewhere in the late 20's.

I don't have an opinion about this, I'm just interested in anyone's take on why this should be so.

Interesting comparison. Achiuwa is 1.6 years older than Stewart, so no quite 2.

Watching them on video, I think Achiuwa is more explosive. They both move pretty well laterally, but Achiuwa has much more elevation. Achiuwa really looks like he'll be an above average athlete at the NBA level. Stewart looks average.

Another concern about Stewart is that his production dropped noticeably in conference play. He posted 21 and 11 per 40 with a TS% of .629 overall, but in conference play, it was 17, 10 and .598. Achiuwa was essentially identical in conference play as he was over the entire season (21, 14, .543). Achiuwa is a much better rebounder

One big difference in Stewart's favor is that he makes his free throws .774 versus Achiuwa's .599

[WizarDynasty]

Here's a question that just occurred to me -- I wonder if anyone has a take on this:

Precious is a very promising player, no question. But, isn't Isaiah Stewart also quite promising?

Both guys are coming out after their Freshman year, but Precious is an "old" Freshman at 21, while Stewart is 19 -- almost 2 full years younger than Achiuwa. Both guys played a lot & put up very good numbers for Freshman. They're both described as stellar athletes as well.

Yet, Achiuwa is routinely mocked between 9-14 (usually closer to 9), while in those same mocks Stewart usually goes somewhere in the late 20's.

I don't have an opinion about this, I'm just interested in anyone's take on why this should be so.

Isaiah Stewart has alot of potential if matched with the right trainers. He is poor and maintaining a strong hip bend for extended periods of time, and loses control of his body. He doesn't have strong feet. And he is vertically challenged. He has similar traits to Okongwu in that he plays below the rim. He does alot of pulling himself up on the rim when he dunks. His low release point will be easily challenged when he goes against defenders in the nba with length, just like Okongwu.
He doesn't have elite first step and hip bend to rely in order to blow past defenders like Achiuwa. and like Okongwu, he shows no ability to be able to shoot off the dribble against slow footed bigs and get them in foul trouble.
If you have specialist to train him for about 3 years, you might be able to develop his leaping skills, his foot strength, his hip bend stamina, his explosiveness off one foot.
He has nice frame to bang inside, looks like good length based how close his hands are to the net when jumping for rebounds. He just doesn't have explosive bounce. He is like wiseman, they need alot of load time when they jump.
They don't explode off the floor quickly kenyon martin, bam, or kevin garnett, anthony davis, --and if you have a standing reach of 9'2. you only need to having a standing vertical or 2 feet or 24 inches to be well above the rim, if you pay attention to his second jump the guy barely gets off the ground, His second quick twitch vertical is like 8 or 9 inches. Really bad.

just start paying attention to how far a guy gets off the ground and how quickly he gets off the ground on second jumps for rebounds.
When you see him jump for dunks, he has to really load hard, and when he does jump he barely gets over the rim lol. I mean, I can't dunk, but for a elite nba player that gets paid millions, this is something you need badly.

just look at 4:30 of video.
https://youtu.be/OCpKDVzWa-E?t=270
3:22 Okongwu video.
His effective vertical is like 10 inches. Look at his shoot compared to the player that is guarding him socks. It's like 10 inches high.
Okongwu does not have explosive quick twitch vertical. His quick twitch vertical is like 15 inches max. An elite player when fully extended with a quick twitch vertical is unguardable, and his release is well above the rim and shooting downward.
so pay attention to quick twitch vertical. You can look at how high the players feet are on quick twitch move to get an idea of how explosive is he. the farther off the ground he gets quickly when doing a move, the higher his draft stock. I told you guys that Okongwu has heavy feet, and you can see it when he runs down the court. That quick rise, especially if you are undersized like he is, is what allows you to reliably get your shot off against length. 3:16 mark in video.
https://youtu.be/l1M1ybiTRPk?t=196
1:36 jumping off one foot after a move, and hip bend. https://youtu.be/T1iR1ncNTfM?t=96

These are the topic points i would like you guys to analyze draft prospect with and maybe you might find that Jokic in europe or not over look guys like Siakam.

[nate33]

...Trade Down: If Okongwu isnt there and we trade down (9 to Boston for 14, 26, 47), I would take ...

I can't see any way Boston would give that, alas.... Essentially, they'd be trading the #26 & #47 to move up 5 spots from 14 to 9.

I question whether they'd need to give up the #26 alone for that benefit. Or whether they'd give the #14, #30 & #47 in return for #9.

PIF, I understand how you value draft picks, but your valuation is WAY off. Precedent matters here, as does the draft board.

2014: Bulls traded #16, #19, and a future 1st for #11
2016: Suns traded #13, #28, and Bogdan (Drafted 27 the year before) for #8
2017: Blazers traded #15 and #20 for #10
2018: Suns traded #16 + Heat unprotected 2021 1st for #10
2019: 76ers traded #24 + #33 for #20

Taking into account the above, we would be getting a deal at below market for a top 8-10 pick.

I'll add that word is that Ainge doesn't want a ton of draft picks. They already have a very young roster and don't have the room to groom 3 more guys. I think Boston will definitely be interested in trading 2 or 3 picks to move up.

I personally don't care about the #47 pick. Just make it #13 + #26 for #9. Historically, picks later than #46 are worthless. It's better to have the roster spot to sign a promising D-League guy.

[Frichuela]

A source suggests the Washington Wizards are hoping USC's Onyeka Okongwu falls to them at No. 9. If he isn't there, they'd be interested in trading the pick.

Bleacher Report

Watch on YouTube

Makes total sense. Big O is the preferred choice of a number of us here.

Should we fail to land Big O, curious to see which trading scenarios Tommy is contemplating. Many have been discussed here...including Boston, Sacramento, New Orleans and Brooklyn too (aka the Jarret Allen trade).

[payitforward]

Clarke is a far better athlete.

I admit, at the beginning of the season, I said Reed might become this year's Clarke.

In a way, he still might.

The most notable thing about Clarke was how extraordinarily underrated he was in last year's draft. That seems to be true of Reed as well.

Lol you guys are still talking about brandon clarke as if he is a starter material. The guys standing reach is 8'6 lol. He has the standing reach of a shooting guard. It's poor even for a small forward. That means he has to leave his feet at jump 8 inches just to get to the vertical size of an elite powerforward. Maybe he in small balls he could be your s/f p/f.

YOu guys should always factor in standing reach, and for a lotter pick p/f-- center it should 9'2 to 9'4 range.
dwight howard 9'4 standing reach.
Elton Brand 6'8 but had a 9'3 standing reach.
The longer your reach, easier for you stand tall and bother shots without leaving your feet. You also can get to rebounds faster than someone who has to leave their feet and jump just to get to the same spot in the air.
Combine elite foot work with elite standing reach.
you don't even need measurements, just watch film and see how far a players hands are from the net and how quickly his hands get to the ball before everyone else.
The guy with quick bounce and long standing reach always has an advantage.
Brandon Clarke should never be mention in the same sentence as nba starting powerforward for playoff team.

Have you ever watched Brandon Clarke play basketball?

The stuff you are into is extremely interesting, & it can be a big help in understanding why one or another player is or isn't successful. But it's success on the court that counts, & it's success on the court that comes first.

If I want to know who the best player in the league is -- at any position -- I can't find out by looking at a list of static physical measurements. But, I can find out by looking at the numbers guys put up.

In fact, that's the only way I can find out. & once I find that out, I know. I don't need to look at anything more. Yes, I have to take into account whether a guy is a starter or more often playing against reserves. But, this is the NBA not the corner gym. The guys in this league are arguably the 500 best basketball players in the world. Steak not chop meat. &, after all, I also have to take into account the fact that a kid is a rookie & comes into the league & absolutely kills it.

Not to mention that I might have watched the player in college, along with his teammates. For example: in this case, I watched both Clarke & Rui at Gonzaga.

Watching them & looking at their college numbers tell me who was the better player back then. Watching them in the NBA & looking at their NBA numbers as rookies tells me who's the better player in the league so far.

The numbers that matter are the ones that determine wins & losses -- the numbers on the board. Once I see those, the subject of his standing reach is closed. I can't make a guy be worse by citing his standing reach!

I can't make him better by citing it either -- how many guys do you want listed who had huge wingspans & standing reach & sucked on the court?

Again, the stuff that fascinates you is extremely valuable. Both interesting & useful. In the end, however, actual play counts over everything else. Clarke was tremendous at Gonzaga, & he was by far the best performing NBA rookie in 2019-20.

[doclinkin]

Here's a question that just occurred to me -- I wonder if anyone has a take on this:

Precious is a very promising player, no question. But, isn't Isaiah Stewart also quite promising?

Both guys are coming out after their Freshman year, but Precious is an "old" Freshman at 21, while Stewart is 19 -- almost 2 full years younger than Achiuwa. Both guys played a lot & put up very good numbers for Freshman. They're both described as stellar athletes as well.

Yet, Achiuwa is routinely mocked between 9-14 (usually closer to 9), while in those same mocks Stewart usually goes somewhere in the late 20's.

I don't have an opinion about this, I'm just interested in anyone's take on why this should be so.

I brought up Stewart as a target. He's one I'm excited about as a sleeper, I'd love to pick up that late 1st to grab him. The distinction between them is role and versatility, upside. Achiuwa has a looseness and ease in his movements, he's fluid laterally and as an all court defender. On defense Achiuwa showed he is playable 3-5, switching on the perimeter and also playing bigger than anticipated on the interior. Versatility nowadays is key in defense and ultimately leads to minutes. Achiuwa has better verticality as well, opening up passing lanes above his head and allowing him to play bigger than he is.

Stewart is big, doesn't have to play bigger than he is. He looks shorter than he is because he has the no neck bulldog build. But his wingspan will show up as if he were 4-5 inches taller. Powerful, strong, significantly energetic. He showed an unmatchable energy level, often being the first down the court even after catching the rebound under the basket. You can't teach energy. Can't teach size. He showed more versatility in his highschool highlights than the role he was asked to play in college, where he was commonly jammed under the basket and double and triple teamed down low. That said he did fine with that. WIth the NBA three second rule he will have to show a little more movement in his polka in the paint, so scouting concerns would be that he has a traditional throwback game only as an interior player without dominating ups.

But as you mention he is young. Young and energetic and powerful with a willingness to work suggests he has not reached his peak. His weight room work has clearly been focused on his upper body, so there is room for improvement in his laterality and footwork, but the desire to work is a talent, and that level of hustle as a baseline suggests his ceiling is higher than he has currently been asked to play. In high school he showed a bit of a face-up game, nice balance and repeatable form on a jumper out to 3pts, and his FT shooting is close to 80%. No matter what though he will have a positive effect on the game, even as a rookie and coming off the bench. He works too hard and is too strong. If he is asked to simply run out there, hustle for rebounds and putbacks, and bang on back ups he will be a load to handle even as a rookie. As his game develops I get the feeling he will earn starters minutes in a 4-5 role. On defense however he will only be asked to defend on the interior or in Pick and Roll D, where Achiuwa seems like he will earn time both switching on the outside and dropping underneath.

So. Defensive versatility distinguishes them.