RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #10 (Larry Bird)

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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #10 

Post#121 » by No-more-rings » Tue Nov 3, 2020 5:23 pm

limbo wrote:
Kobe being rarely better than Dirk doesn't mean that they weren't close in a lot of the years. It just means that during their primes, there was only a handful of season where you could say Kobe was clearly better than Dirk, despite playing mostly on better teams.


What I'm saying is, you can say the same about Dirk's number of clearly better seasons, if we just look at overlapping prime seasons, he's generally going to get 02, 04, 05 and most will probably take 07 though some won't due to his playoff collapse. By 2011 Kobe was on the decline clearly. 06 is definitely not clearly Dirk, if you think so then maybe it's you looking too much at "winning", because we know Kobe's capabilities and that was a bad situation for him.

If they were close in most years, what's the problem with calling Kobe better overall?


limbo wrote:Calling out winning bias is not about dismissing winning. It's about putting the proper context/perspective on how/why a certain player won. And no, Kobe was the best player on two title teams while Dirk was only on one is not context/perspective...

Isiah Thomas was the best player on two title teams but that doesn't make him a better player than either Oscar, West, Paul, Nash or Stockton... That's not me saying Isiah had 'nothing to do with' Pistons titles, no, he was one of their most important players, but i'm not going to be putting him over superior players on a list that asks to rank individual players, because he wasn't as good. The reason why he won two rings and Oscar won one was because of other factors beyond their control, which i'm trying to eliminate as best as possible when i'm talking about GOAT rankings.


You're saying a bunch of stuff everybody already knows though. Kobe's prime/peak ability speaks for itself, and he has a robust resume with a litter of great playoff performances to back it up, so someone saying he was better than Dirk isn't some hot take. You seem to be equating them to two different level of players, like we're comparing Lillard against Curry or something. Or KD against Lebron. It's not reality.



limbo wrote:I'm not giving 03 to Kobe... Dirk had a +12.6 OnCourt and +20.4 On/Off during the RS compared to Kobe's +3.8 OnCourt and +10.0 On/Off... Dirk had better RAPM and better advanced stats too, not by much, but enough.


Dirk's advacned stats weren't really better they are about the same. For example, Dirk slightly ahead in BPM but behind in PER. Kobe appeared to create more on offense though, averaging 30 ppg and 6 apg on a respectable 55 ts% on a 32.9 usage%. I understand Dirk makes up most of the gap with his creation through spacing, but Dirk fans at times seem to exaggerate this to mythical levels. Dirk aside from maybe a year or two in his prime always had decent or even very good ball handlers to make plays for others. Let's be real, Kobe's basically never had that. Fisher is not that guy.

limbo wrote:Kobe doesn't even have the better Playoff performance. He beat up on below average Minnesota defense in the 1st round before being clamped by the Spurs. His Spurs series was not more impressive than Dirk was in terms of the impact he was having, despite playing more games and on a better team. Dirk at least eliminated the Kings in those Playoffs, who were the 2nd team based on SRS during the RS and he played good in that series, despite Webber getting injured. You're basically rewarding Kobe because Dirk got injured mid-way through the Spurs series... Despite Dirk playing more PS games overall and performing better in them against tougher defenses...There's nothing Kobe showed me during that PS that makes me put him ahead of Dirk who was simply better during the RS.



Not really sure how you figure the Spurs clamped Kobe. He probably overshot a little bit, but he didn't freeze teammates out in the same way he did in 04. Should probably also be worth noting that a lot their players as a whole were worn down from 3 straight finals runs. You don't factor that in at all?

BTW i wouldn't mention Dirk's play against San Antonio. He had a great game, a meh game and a poor game. Duncan was eating his lunch and would've continued to if he didn't get hurt.



limbo wrote:Haha. So, let me get this straight. Kobe was comfortably better in 03, despite having a worse RS and not really doing anything of note against non below-average defenses in the PS, because Dirk got injured. But in 06, Dirk has a legendary postseason run all the way to the Finals while Kobe almost averages the same number of assists and has a worse series against the same Suns Dirk beats later on and 06 is a wash... LMAO


I think i explained 03 good enough. Kobe had one of his better regular seasons, the results weren't really impressive but he was playing with an unmotivated and tired supporting cast.

You keep saying how you want to apply context but you keep failing to do so. Kobe's team in 06 wasn't destined to do anything in the playoffs, and he pushed a better team to 7. I think that's arguably the peak for both players, it just so happens Kobe was in one of the worst possible situations, and Dirk didn't have a great cast but a good one at least. I'm not going to judge Kobe harshly in one of his worst situations. Again, i have no problem picking either.

limbo wrote:08-10 is Kobe's strongest stretch of his career and Dirk is a lot closer to Kobe in those years than Kobe is to Dirk outside of those years, despite Dirk playing on a mediocre team at best, while Kobe had arguably the best supporting cast in the league.


I fully believe Kobe could've performed the same way from 06-10 if he had good enough supporting casts. Kobe didn't magically become a different player in the late 2000s. He was hurt, had a down year in 05, and had issues with Shaq and that rape case going on in 04 so there's that. Kobe's had to put up with way more variables over his career than Dirk did, who basically every year had at least a solid cast.


limbo wrote:There is no 'what if's' here... Dirk was individually a better basketball player than Kobe on aggregate from 00-14. All metrics say this. Why that hasn't manifested in more team success/titles is a different debate, but not really much of a debate, because everybody knows Kobe played with the best supporting cast in the league from 2000 to 2004 and 2008-2011, while Dirk not so much.

Well i don't think impact metrics are a one size fits all type of approach to ranking players. It seems you're trying to explain away Kobe's career full of long success just because he had sometimes great teams. Kobe's a case where impact stuff usually underrates him, while Dirk is probably properly rated by his.

Also we don't know how well Dirk and Shaq would've gotten along. Shaq was a bit of a dick, would he have been so nice to a lanky white dude who shoots a ton of jumpers, and who at that time was young and unproven? Who knows. It's easy to say they would've in hindsight but remember, his peak would be overlapping with pre or early prime Dirk, not the Dirk he knows today.

I don't even care that you take Dirk, it seems reasonable enough but i don't understand this attitude of trying to diminish and disrespect Kobe's legacy by calling Dirk the clear better player is sort of head scratching.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #10 

Post#122 » by limbo » Tue Nov 3, 2020 5:29 pm

If Dirk wasn't at least an above average defender in 2006/2007, then 15 minutes of DeSangana Diop and Josh Howard performed the biggest defensive carry job in NBA history... because it sure wasn't Jason Terry, Jerry Stackhouse, Devin Harris, Adrian Griffin and **** Kieth Van Horn who were carrying that defense...

You don't get to go to the NBA Finals in the West through the Grizzlies, Spurs and Suns in 2006 if you can't play defense, unless you're doing Bill Russell offensive levels of impact... And that's not what happened with Dallas. Matter of fact, Through the 2006 Playoffs (which encompasses four series and a total of 23 games, which is more than 1/4 of the regular season, against the best competition in the league, mind you, Dallas had a better DRtg than ORtg...

You would think a team that has Dirk, Terry, Stackhouse, Harris, Griffin and Van Horn, manned by a decent, but nothing to write home about rim protector in Dampier would have no chance defending anyone... much less teams like Memphis, San Antonio, Phoenix, Miami...

It's done out here, fam... Dirk's defensive value is being judged by playing C on historically bad defensive teams, trying to contain Nash/CP3 with bad perimeter defenders and probably because he was white and slow (despite some of his best defensive seasons coming in his early 30's... News flash: Dirk wasn't a better defender at 32/33 than before, he just finally had a good defensive cast and coaching... who would've thought playing a defensive role you're not good at while playing with trash defenders would make you look like a bad defender?)
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #10 

Post#123 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Nov 3, 2020 5:35 pm

Dutchball97 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Wanted to say:

I see some people who are disturbed by there being a gap between Magic & Bird.

I'll actually say that whenever I have contemporaries right next to each other, it makes me uncomfortable. If you have a pure mathematical formula you're using, you're typically not going to get those guys right next to each other, so it stands reason to ask whether there's something myopic in my/your/our analysis when we see these guys smashed together.

In the case of Magic and Bird, it's important to remember that these guys do not have anything like identical careers. Bird was a serious MVP candidate well before Magic, and then Magic has a huge advantage over their last half decade or so. Yes, in theory those gaps could cancel each other out, but the odds of that should be considered unlikely.

None of this is meant to justify "pushing Bird alone down the list", as I'm one of the folks who has KG above both Magic & Bird, but I'm just saying that the fact that there ends up potentially being a significant ranking gap between Magic & Bird doesn't set off alarm bells for me.

I'm more concerned with the fact that I always seem to end up putting Oscar & West right next to each other. Smacks of tradition rather than rationality. I'm not going to move them apart just to make to ape the appearance of rationality, but I am more concerned about having these contemporary rivals right next to each other than I am having them potentially apart.


I actually agree. I brought up KG having a similar career to Duncan not being enough to put him right next to him in all-time rankings earlier and I still believe that.

I feel similarly as you do on Oscar and West. I find it hard to seperate them even though their career arcs were vastly different. Might be a case of not having all the data available from their playing days, giving us less things to make distinctions from.

I did bring up the Magic and Bird connection multiple times though. While I agree you don't have to put them right next to each other, the arguments used for Magic and against Bird were a bit weird. What makes Magic's longevity not a problem at all but Bird's longevity disqualifies him from the same discussion? My annoyance isn't so much about Bird probably not making the top 10 so much as it is the arguments being used to discredit him.


Makes sense.

I would emphasize that 1) Magic's longevity did hold him back in people's rankings, and 2) Bird can be argued to have a significantly worse longevity than Magic. The last time Bird is seen as a top tier superstar is '87-88. In the 3 years after that Magic finished 1st, 1st, and 2nd in the MVP before his medical retirement.

I do understand that Bird was better in the beginning, but I think people need to realize that there was a Jordan/Magic era that followed the Bird/Magic era and preceded the pure Jordan era. In the Jordan/Magic era, it was seen that there were 2 transcendent players and then a massive gap to the next tier, and Bird wasn't even in consideration for that next tier. He was seen a player from the past.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #10 

Post#124 » by Baski » Tue Nov 3, 2020 5:37 pm

I'm kinda surprised Bird might not make the top 10, but then again it's hard to argue with some of the cases presented for those that are already in. Been voting for him for like 3 straight threads now so there isn't much I can add. But I'm going to keep saying every chance I get: the man was so freaking good at basketball.

1. Larry Bird
2. Jerry West
3. Kobe Bryant
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #10 

Post#125 » by No-more-rings » Tue Nov 3, 2020 5:52 pm

limbo wrote:If Dirk wasn't at least an above average defender in 2006/2007, then 15 minutes of DeSangana Diop and Josh Howard performed the biggest defensive carry job in NBA history... because it sure wasn't Jason Terry, Jerry Stackhouse, Devin Harris, Adrian Griffin and **** Kieth Van Horn who were carrying that defense...

You don't get to go to the NBA Finals in the West through the Grizzlies, Spurs and Suns in 2006 if you can't play defense, unless you're doing Bill Russell offensive levels of impact... And that's not what happened with Dallas. Matter of fact, Through the 2006 Playoffs (which encompasses four series and a total of 23 games, which is more than 1/4 of the regular season, against the best competition in the league, mind you, Dallas had a better DRtg than ORtg...

You would think a team that has Dirk, Terry, Stackhouse, Harris, Griffin and Van Horn, manned by a decent, but nothing to write home about rim protector in Dampier would have no chance defending anyone... much less teams like Memphis, San Antonio, Phoenix, Miami...

It's done out here, fam... Dirk's defensive value is being judged by playing C on historically bad defensive teams, trying to contain Nash/CP3 with bad perimeter defenders and probably because he was white and slow (despite some of his best defensive seasons coming in his early 30's... News flash: Dirk wasn't a better defender at 32/33 than before, he just finally had a good defensive cast and coaching... who would've thought playing a defensive role you're not good at while playing with trash defenders would make you look like a bad defender?)

I think most would agree Dirk was above average defensively from 06-11. What's the beef? lol. I don't think he ever made a big impact there, though Kobe himself had some bad ones like 05-07 and from 2011 onward. So i can see why bringing defense into the comparison probably doesn't swing things. Most of their impact came from offense.

And the only reason I'd be willing to give Dirk that description, is because he was typically at least a small positive in RAPM those years. The eye test does Dirk no justice at all, it's probably easier to make him look bad on tape than it is good.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #10 

Post#126 » by DQuinn1575 » Tue Nov 3, 2020 5:54 pm

sansterre wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:
sansterre wrote:...

Regular Season Win Shares / WS/48:
Dirk Nowitzki: 206.3 / 0.193
Kevin Garnett: 191.4 / 0.182
Oscar Robertson: 189.2 / 0.207
Kobe Bryant: 172.7 / 0.170
Jerry West: 162.6 / 0.213
Larry Bird: 145.8 / 0.203
George Mikan: 108.7 / 0.249

Mikan was the most dominant, but played for such a short length of time that he's still ranked at the bottom. Bird is seen as dominant in his time, but playing so little that West is seen as a superior option. Kobe is seen as the worst of these in average performance. Dirk shows up as the best in career value, while Garnett shows #2; Oscar Robertson playing longer than West really helps him....


Do you know what year WS is calculated from? Mikan came out of school in 46 and the Lakers played in more than one league. Also, the seasons didn't have 82 games yet and many of the stats weren't recorded. Always a problem looking at Mikan.


BAA in 49 and NBA from 50 to 56. I make no representations that it's much of anything; it's just what basketball-reference had.

Thanks - then Milan is missing 2 championship seasons, which is more than 4 of the 7 other players on the list have
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #10 

Post#127 » by trex_8063 » Tue Nov 3, 2020 5:55 pm

Dutchball97 wrote:
70sFan wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:
This feels unproductive. I've already argued in multiple threads how I don't think the longevity advantage Magic has over Bird is as impactful as some would have you believe. Yeah sure maybe it's enough for some people but does that mean I can't point out how I disagree with that line of thinking?

Of course you can disagree, I'm just trying to provide some agruments for having Magic clearly higher.

If someone thinks that prime Magic was as good (or slightly better) as prime Bird, that Magic has longevity advantage (which is objectively true) and values Magic's postseason consistency more (which is also fair, although people have to remember that Bird usually faced much better competition - at least in 1984-88 period) then I don't think it's that unfair to have Magic a few spots higher than Bird.

Personally, I do have Magic inside top 10 (although a bit lower) and I have Bird outside of it.


I think the difference mainly comes from evaluation of their respective primes. If you think they were exactly as good or that Magic was better then it makes sense to see a longevity advantage, no matter how slight it may be, as enough to justify Magic ahead of Bird.


There's also the factor of team success. Good players make teams win, and Magic won more (5 titles on 9 finals appearances, vs only 3 titles on only 5 appearances). Ignoring that seems like a good way to jump the shark on player evaluation.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #10 

Post#128 » by Odinn21 » Tue Nov 3, 2020 6:06 pm

trex_8063 wrote:There's also the factor of team success. Good players make teams win, and Magic won more (5 titles on 9 finals appearances, vs only 3 titles on only 5 appearances). Ignoring that seems like a good way to jump the shark on player evaluation.

I say this is much more winning bias than the comparison between Bryant and Nowitzki.

As I pointed out many times in this very project and earlier, Magic played against very weak teams in the WC to make the Finals in his prime, the only real challenge was the Celtics and the Pistons in the NBA Finals. Bird OTOH had to play through at least 2 and usually 3 series like that to get that type of success.

Odinn21 wrote:Look at the Lakers' playoff competition after the 1st rounds on average in the WC from 1985 to 1989;
10 playoffs series
47.2 win
47.5 expected win
7.3 expected win rank
+2.10 SRS
8.0 SRS rank
1 time they played against a team with -2.0 or worse SRS.
1 time they played against a team with +4.0 or better SRS.
2 times they played against a team that was top 5 in SRS ranking.

Number for the Celtics from 1984 to 1988 for comparison;
10 playoffs series
51.4 win
51.6 expected win
4.4 expected win rank
+4.30 SRS
3.8 SRS rank
0 times they played against a team with -2.0 or worse SRS.
6 times they played against a team with +4.0 or better SRS.
8 times they played against a team that was top 5 in SRS ranking.


I can't think of a single other comparison that's this popular has a this significant difference between their competition.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #10 

Post#129 » by Hal14 » Tue Nov 3, 2020 6:11 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:
70sFan wrote:Of course you can disagree, I'm just trying to provide some agruments for having Magic clearly higher.

If someone thinks that prime Magic was as good (or slightly better) as prime Bird, that Magic has longevity advantage (which is objectively true) and values Magic's postseason consistency more (which is also fair, although people have to remember that Bird usually faced much better competition - at least in 1984-88 period) then I don't think it's that unfair to have Magic a few spots higher than Bird.

Personally, I do have Magic inside top 10 (although a bit lower) and I have Bird outside of it.


I think the difference mainly comes from evaluation of their respective primes. If you think they were exactly as good or that Magic was better then it makes sense to see a longevity advantage, no matter how slight it may be, as enough to justify Magic ahead of Bird.


There's also the factor of team success. Good players make teams win, and Magic won more (5 titles on 9 finals appearances, vs only 3 titles on only 5 appearances). Ignoring that seems like a good way to jump the shark on player evaluation.


That's because Magic had a better supporting cast. If you put Parish on the Lakers and Kareem on the Celtics, then Magic does not win the title in 80, 82 or 85. So Magic is left with 2 titles...meanwhile, Bird + Kareem, Bird still wins the title in 81, 84 and 86, plus he wins it in 85 since the finals MVP in 85 would be on the Celtics instead of the Lakers. Bird also probably wins the title in 80 and 82, but even if we're conservative, Bird is left with 4 titles to Magic with 2. More than likely though it would have been 5 or 6 titles for Bird and either 0 or 1 title for Magic if Parish and Kareem swapped teams.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #10 

Post#130 » by DQuinn1575 » Tue Nov 3, 2020 6:19 pm

limbo wrote:
Dirk never played without decent perimeter creators. He didn't play with elite rosters all the time, but he had excellent coaches and deep teams more often than not.


2006 Dallas Mavericks:
111.8 ORtg (1/30), +5.6 rORtg

Team assists: 18.0 per game (29/30)

Jason Terry: 3.8 apg
Devin Harris: 3.2 apg
Jerry Stackhouse: 2.9 apg
Dirk Nowitzki: 2.8 apg


Come one, fam... Jason Terry was the biggest shot creator outside Dirk on these teams and he averaged 3.8 apg, 1.7 TO, which isn't bad, but it's Smush Parker levels of creation... and Kobe stans have been trashing Smush for being garbage for 15 years now... Howard, Stack, Harris were just NOT GOOD perimeter creators, and the Center Dirk played with had no value on offense.

So that's Dampier/Diop (no value), Howard/Stack/Harris, bad perimeter creators, and Terry who is Smush Parker level creator...

If Dirk was working with decent perimeter creators i'm curious which player in NBA history had comparable or worse creators on his team on a +5.5 rOTG team... Certainly not Kobe or Shaq.

[quote]

Larry Bird from 1983 on was playing with a backcourt of Dennis Johnson and Danny Ainge, but "only" was on plus 4.9 and 5.2 offenses in Boston. People can talk about his teammates, but Bird led his team in assists multiple years, and they played without a playmaker. Also led one of the greatest teams of all-time in scoring, rebounding, and assists. Team's defense improved drastically in 1980 with him being only new player in top 5 in minutes.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #10 

Post#131 » by 90sAllDecade » Tue Nov 3, 2020 6:22 pm

Spoiler:
drza wrote:
90sAllDecade wrote:So I'm reviewing stats and checking film for the comparisons.

One question for Garnett supporters, what happened in the 2002 playoffs vs Dirk?

I'm going to check games, but it looks like Dirk ripped Garnett and despite the Mavs being 4th seed to Minne's 5th seed it was a sweep.

Again, I'm going to check games but this looks like Dirk dominated this series against KG. Did Garnett guard him or did they hide him?

https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/2002-nba-western-conference-first-round-timberwolves-vs-mavericks.html


In the series,

Garnett averaged 24.0 points (51.0% TS), 18.7 reb (5.3 ORB), 5.0 ast, 4 TO
Nowitzki averaged 33.3 points (68.6% TS), 15.7 reb (1.7 ORB), 0.7 ast, 2 TO

Short answer is that Timberwolves Coach Flip Saunders' stated strategy was to essentially let Dirk get his with hopes of slowing down everyone else. No, KG wasn't typically the main cover on Dirk that series. He was used primarily as a help defender because the Mavs routinely put out a lineup with four guys that could create off the dribble (Nash, Van Exel, Finley and Dirk) and a fifth that could volume-shoot from downtown (Raef LaFrentz) while the Wolves had three perimeter defenders that (at that point in their careers) were poor on-ball defenders (Billups, Peeler and Wally) and a center that wasn't comfortable/quick enough to defend the perimeter. Per Flip Saunders:

"The thing that makes them difficult is not only do they have the ability to shoot from the perimeter, but almost every one of their guys has the ability to beat you off the dribble," Minnesota coach Flip Saunders said. "Whether it's Nash, whether it's Van Exel, whether it's Finley, whether it's Nowitzki matched up with a 4 (power forward), they've got four guys they can put out on the floor that can create off the dribble.

"They put so much pressure on you to guard them on the three-point line, but if you get too close, they beat you off the dribble. They either get to the basket or they draw help and hit one of their other shooters."


That quote is the series in a nutshell. Believe it or not, Dirk wasn't really the engine for the Mavs' offense in that series. He was more the outcome, the finisher, than the initiator. It's part of why Dirk only had 2 total assists vs 6 turnovers in the entire series...he was being set up in position to score by guards that were crushing their matchups and kicking out to him. And Dirk was awesome enough to knock down a huge array of these good looks.

Interestingly, despite Dirk's ridiculous scoring numbers, Flip wasn't entirely wrong in his strategy. The Wolves held the Mavs slightly below their expected offensive rating in the series (based on both team's regular O- and D- ratings).

But that also doesn't lend itself to a "Dirk vs KG" mano a mano that many would like it to be. It was a lose-lose. In the games that happened, Dirk scored ridiculous (volume and efficiency) but the games were all relatively competitive. In the alternative universe where KG focuses on Dirk, then you potentially see much bigger numbers for Nash, Van Exel and Finley (all of whom had a much larger capacity to score than those Mavs teams used) and maybe the games would have been less competitive. Which, at least obliquely, Flip seemed to allude to here in one of the post-game quotes:

"In the first quarter I told our guys, when they were a little frustrated over Nowitzki scoring, 'It's a team. You know,'" Saunders said. "If we had to, if Dirk would have a big game, but we contained their other people, we'd be in good shape. What happened was we let some of their other people, mainly Van Exel, came out in the second quarter and kind of got their momentum going back in their way."


Though the two teams were seeded 4/5, the Mavs were the much better team (57-25 record) than the Wolves (50-32), so it would've been a long shot for the Wolves to win the series. And the Mavs were an atrocious matchup for those Wolves, who would've been better built to face the Kings or Spurs even though they were better teams.

In the three games, Garnett sat only 18 total minutes. While KG was on the court, the Mavs outscored the Wolves by a total of 14 points in 130 minutes. But they outscored the Wolves by 18 points in the 18 minutes that he sat. In the first game of the series, this was the difference between a win and a loss (Wolves outscored Mavs by 4 in the 44 minutes Garnett was on the floor).

:Shrugs: Make of that what you will.


I appreciate the reply and this was excellent, I did my own research and watched as many full games and film as I could.

Things going for Garnett: I think his strengths and weaknesses were on full display in this series.

Pros:
He was a beast in his all-around game, awesome with perimeter defense, routinely picking up Nash, Finley, or any perimeter player on switches and either shutting them down or forcing them to pass disrupting the offense with man perimeter defense.

Great high post passing and passing for a big man. He made intelligent passes and help initiate the offense of the team at times, I think this may get overrated a bit as other positions and bigs like Bird do a better job here, but his passing was good.

Excellent defensive rebounding, he had to do a lot because his team was so bad. After Garnett, young Billups, and Wally the drop-off in talent was pretty obvious in the series. Flip was not out coaching Nellie either, who played multiple point guards and pushed offense before it was in vogue. This of course made his job harder and he received all of the defensive attention, but so did many of the GOAT candidates under playoff pressure.

Cons:
It reminded me of a weakness Garnett had in his Minnesota years, he often wasn't physically strong enough in earlier years to bully in and get deeper position for higher percentage shots in the post, often settling for fadeaways or jump shots. His FG and TS% are poor and reflect this.

He often became passive as he was unable to take over and score when the team needed him. In game one for example he was 5-17 FG at one point and the commentator says "That's not gonna get it done" which was true as the Wolves were in danger and eventually lost the game. Sometimes you need your GOAT level player to put on his cape and take over to make plays and seal the win, Garnett couldn't do it and deferred passively, ultimately costing them games and the series.

Dirk was two years younger 23 to Garnett's 25 and although not as athletic or the defender, he played above average to good defense, excellent rebounding, and did take over games for his team. Honestly, if I'm Dirk and I'm shooting near 70% TS% for a playoff series, I'm not passing the ball either. You have the best chance for your team offensively, why pass the ball for an assist and a worse offensive player taking the majority of shots?

His team had superior talent, but Dirk did what needed to be done. Even someone like Kobe or Jerry West, when his team was overmatched with talent would put on the cape and take over to win or attempt to win the game. They didn't leave bullets in the chamber and wasn't passive.

If his team was so bad and dependent on him it makes sense his impact numbers would be extremely high, but I think it gets overrated as sometimes you need to take over games to seal wins when plays and strategy breaks down. When it's just your best player creating something out of nothing to pull out wins.

Dirk also did initiate a lot out of the post with as can be seen in the highlights below:



Here is the full game one for those interested:


I'm also watching Birds games and gun to my head, Bird was more impactful at his peak. Both had playoff failures but Bird would take over and his offense, passing, and especially efficiency was more valuable than Garnett's. Dirk is compared to Bird and Bird could do more as a player skillset wise than Dirk imo.

Granted one series, but I'm leaning Bird here for now as I value playoff performance over RS and hold peak and longevity equally within reason. Again not set in stone, and I would also like to know the voting time deadline if I missed it.

Edit:
Since there is only a little time left, I'll vote.

1. Bird
2. Garnett
3. West (I'll be open to arguements for Oscar and Kobe as well, none are set in stone)


A runoff here would be awesome as well I think for more time and arguments as it's close from what I see vote wise, but I'll accept whatever decision.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #10 

Post#132 » by Dutchball97 » Tue Nov 3, 2020 6:24 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:
70sFan wrote:Of course you can disagree, I'm just trying to provide some agruments for having Magic clearly higher.

If someone thinks that prime Magic was as good (or slightly better) as prime Bird, that Magic has longevity advantage (which is objectively true) and values Magic's postseason consistency more (which is also fair, although people have to remember that Bird usually faced much better competition - at least in 1984-88 period) then I don't think it's that unfair to have Magic a few spots higher than Bird.

Personally, I do have Magic inside top 10 (although a bit lower) and I have Bird outside of it.


I think the difference mainly comes from evaluation of their respective primes. If you think they were exactly as good or that Magic was better then it makes sense to see a longevity advantage, no matter how slight it may be, as enough to justify Magic ahead of Bird.


There's also the factor of team success. Good players make teams win, and Magic won more (5 titles on 9 finals appearances, vs only 3 titles on only 5 appearances). Ignoring that seems like a good way to jump the shark on player evaluation.


This sounds a bit sassy. I never said Kobe has to be ahead of Dirk because he has more rings and finals appearances. Kobe played 220 play-off games to Dirk's 145. That's a pretty significant difference. Meanwhile, the difference between Magic (190) and Bird (165) is less than half that difference. If we're putting a premium on longevity, maybe we should also question how much Dirk's longeviy holds up when he played 20 less play-off games than Bird.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #10 

Post#133 » by Hal14 » Tue Nov 3, 2020 6:25 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Wanted to say:

I see some people who are disturbed by there being a gap between Magic & Bird.

I'll actually say that whenever I have contemporaries right next to each other, it makes me uncomfortable. If you have a pure mathematical formula you're using, you're typically not going to get those guys right next to each other, so it stands reason to ask whether there's something myopic in my/your/our analysis when we see these guys smashed together.

In the case of Magic and Bird, it's important to remember that these guys do not have anything like identical careers. Bird was a serious MVP candidate well before Magic, and then Magic has a huge advantage over their last half decade or so. Yes, in theory those gaps could cancel each other out, but the odds of that should be considered unlikely.

None of this is meant to justify "pushing Bird alone down the list", as I'm one of the folks who has KG above both Magic & Bird, but I'm just saying that the fact that there ends up potentially being a significant ranking gap between Magic & Bird doesn't set off alarm bells for me.

I'm more concerned with the fact that I always seem to end up putting Oscar & West right next to each other. Smacks of tradition rather than rationality. I'm not going to move them apart just to make to ape the appearance of rationality, but I am more concerned about having these contemporary rivals right next to each other than I am having them potentially apart.


I actually agree. I brought up KG having a similar career to Duncan not being enough to put him right next to him in all-time rankings earlier and I still believe that.

I feel similarly as you do on Oscar and West. I find it hard to seperate them even though their career arcs were vastly different. Might be a case of not having all the data available from their playing days, giving us less things to make distinctions from.

I did bring up the Magic and Bird connection multiple times though. While I agree you don't have to put them right next to each other, the arguments used for Magic and against Bird were a bit weird. What makes Magic's longevity not a problem at all but Bird's longevity disqualifies him from the same discussion? My annoyance isn't so much about Bird probably not making the top 10 so much as it is the arguments being used to discredit him.


Makes sense.

I would emphasize that 1) Magic's longevity did hold him back in people's rankings, and 2) Bird can be argued to have a significantly worse longevity than Magic. The last time Bird is seen as a top tier superstar is '87-88. In the 3 years after that Magic finished 1st, 1st, and 2nd in the MVP before his medical retirement.

I do understand that Bird was better in the beginning, but I think people need to realize that there was a Jordan/Magic era that followed the Bird/Magic era and preceded the pure Jordan era. In the Jordan/Magic era, it was seen that there were 2 transcendent players and then a massive gap to the next tier, and Bird wasn't even in consideration for that next tier. He was seen a player from the past.


Hmm, ok so by your logic, Bird has "significantly worse" longevity than Magic because Magic was still a top tier player during his last 3 seasons, but apparently Bird was "seen a player from the past" during his last 3 seasons.

1) You're exaggerating. Bird was an all-star in each of his last 3 seasons and he was 2nd team all NBA during 89-90.
2) Magic was still a "top tier player" in the last 3 years before he retired but both Magic and Bird have the exact same number of seasons where they made 1st team all NBA - 9 times for both..many would consider making first team all NBA as being the barometer for being a "top tier player"
3) Perhaps you don't care about all NBA selections and you care more about where they finish in MVP voting. Bird and Magic both had the exact same number of seasons (9) where they finished top 5 in MVP voting. So while Magic was beter during each player's last 3 seasons, Bird wasn't exactly garbage those 3 seasons (he finished 10th, 9th and 14th in MVP voting so he was still a top 10 player in the league in 2 of his last 3 seasons and he was still a top 15 player all 3 seasons...yes, Magic was top 2 during his last 3 years, but Magic also finished unranked, 11th and 8th during his first 3 seasons in the league - when Bird finished 4th, 2nd and 2. Magic supporting love to bring up how Magic was better during their last 3 seasons, but they miss how much better Bird was during both player's first 3 years which cancels it out.
4) Magic (despite the fact that he's nearly 3 years younger than Bird) retired in 91 after just 12 seasons, whereas Bird retired in 92 after 13 seasons. Yes, I know that Magic only retired because he had HIV, but still, that doesn't change the fact that he retired after 12 seasons, while Bird kept going for season number 13.

I'm not seeing a significant difference in their longevity.
Nothing wrong with having a different opinion - as long as it's done respectfully. It'd be lame if we all agreed on everything :)
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #10 

Post#134 » by limbo » Tue Nov 3, 2020 6:35 pm

DQuinn1575 wrote:Larry Bird from 1983 on was playing with a backcourt of Dennis Johnson and Danny Ainge, but "only" was on plus 4.9 and 5.2 offenses in Boston. People can talk about his teammates, but Bird led his team in assists multiple years, and they played without a playmaker. Also led one of the greatest teams of all-time in scoring, rebounding, and assists. Team's defense improved drastically in 1980 with him being only new player in top 5 in minutes.


?

DJ and Danny Ainge were a better playmaking duo than Devin Harris and Jason Terry...

Matter of fact, Danny Ainge is a very good comparison to Jason Terry, who was the 2nd best offensive player on Dallas easily in 2006 and 2007... Terry was a slightly better scorer while Ainge was a better passer.

The rest of the cast is not comparable though...

Parish >> Dampier/Diop
McHale >>> Howard
DJ > Harris

Benches were both trash.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #10 

Post#135 » by DQuinn1575 » Tue Nov 3, 2020 6:41 pm

Hal14 wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:
I think the difference mainly comes from evaluation of their respective primes. If you think they were exactly as good or that Magic was better then it makes sense to see a longevity advantage, no matter how slight it may be, as enough to justify Magic ahead of Bird.


There's also the factor of team success. Good players make teams win, and Magic won more (5 titles on 9 finals appearances, vs only 3 titles on only 5 appearances). Ignoring that seems like a good way to jump the shark on player evaluation.


That's because Magic had a better supporting cast. If you put Parish on the Lakers and Kareem on the Celtics, then Magic does not win the title in 80, 82 or 85. So Magic is left with 2 titles...meanwhile, Bird + Kareem, Bird still wins the title in 81, 84 and 86, plus he wins it in 85 since the finals MVP in 85 would be on the Celtics instead of the Lakers. Bird also probably wins the title in 80 and 82, but even if we're conservative, Bird is left with 4 titles to Magic with 2. More than likely though it would have been 5 or 6 titles for Bird and either 0 or 1 title for Magic if Parish and Kareem swapped teams.


1979 Records - Celtics 29-53, Lakers 47-35, Lakers have maybe best player of all-time, two next best players are 23 and 25 - improving, Celtics, 4 of top 6 are 30 and over. Yes Celtics add M.L. Carr - but Lakers add Michael Cooper.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #10 

Post#136 » by O_6 » Tue Nov 3, 2020 7:08 pm

I could go in any direction. I wouldn't call myself an anti-KG voter, but I'm definitely not as high on his offensive ability as others. That being said, I've always thought he was worthy of being considered around this range. With the truly great Bigs out of the way who were all significantly more impactful at the rim than KG, I'm pretty comfortable with him being voted in at this spot.

I think Bird and KG are the two greatest players ever who didn't dominate via being a perimeter ball-handling offensive engine or by being dominant interior presences. Both of them could dribble and pass obviously and both played point-forward, but their ideal offensive roles were as secondary ball-handlers rather than primary because it took better advantage of their skill-sets. However, I think Bird was a far superior offensive player due to superior shooting, off-ball movement, and passing. As I mentioned before, I see Bird as the GOAT Off-ball player outside of Curry. I know Bird had issues with maintaining efficiency in the playoffs in certain series, but I think he helped make up for that with the impact his mere presence on the floor created due to his off-ball movement (much like Curry). Bird being such an incredible touch passer and having such a massive impact in terms of floor spacing was also a key aspect to his Celtics teams getting so many great looks, especially inside. He made life so much easier for Parish and McHale.

Timberwolves % of FGA within 3ft of the Rim
'98: 23rd (29 teams)
'99: 27th (29)
'00: 28th (29)
'01: 26th (29)
'02: 28th (29)
'03: 26th (29)
'04: 29th (29)
'05: 30th (30)
'06: 21st (30)
'07: 29th (30)

Garnett shows up as an RAPM offensive monster, however I think a big reason for that is because the Wolves' offense was a fundamentally flawed offense that was based completely around his unique skill-set. It's not a surprise that such an offense fell apart without his mid-range shooting and passing on the floor. I just think it's an issue when you are supposed to be one of the greatest Bigs of all-time yet your teams are consistently among the worst in the league at getting easy shots at the rim. Not only that, but the Wolves were also very poor in terms of 3pt shooting volume as well. If you combined At Rim Volume with 3pt Shooting Volume, the Wolves would very likely finish looking even worse than they did above when I just ranked them based on the At Rim Volume.

It should absolutely be a knock on him that these offenses based around his skill-set were so poor at getting good looks at the most optimal shooting locations on the court. They were the most mid-range centric offense in the entire league. The significant majority of Garnett's assists were not high leverage rim assists or 3pt assists, they were ok mid-range looks that he got for his teammates. And the significant amount of Garnett's scoring was based on assisted mid-range shots, he wasn't the best at creating his own looks from there like other offensive monsters being considered for this spot.

I just believe Garnett's ORAPM overrates his impact. I think RAPM isn't necessarily just a measure of "goodness" but also a measure of "uniqueness". I think for KG, his high ORAPM levels in Minny relatively reflect a bigger emphasis on the "unique" aspect than for a lot of the other top players.

Bird and Kobe were both able to effortlessly blend with strong interior players to form the most dominant teams in the league on the inside. Both guys were able to create better looks for their teammates than KG could and they were also better at creating their own shots than KG as well. KG vs. Kobe is tough and I've gone back and forth on it, but I'm leaning Kobe.

1. Bird
2. Kobe
3. Garnett
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #10 

Post#137 » by trex_8063 » Tue Nov 3, 2020 7:22 pm

Dutchball97 wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:
I think the difference mainly comes from evaluation of their respective primes. If you think they were exactly as good or that Magic was better then it makes sense to see a longevity advantage, no matter how slight it may be, as enough to justify Magic ahead of Bird.


There's also the factor of team success. Good players make teams win, and Magic won more (5 titles on 9 finals appearances, vs only 3 titles on only 5 appearances). Ignoring that seems like a good way to jump the shark on player evaluation.


This sounds a bit sassy. I never said Kobe has to be ahead of Dirk because he has more rings and finals appearances. Kobe played 220 play-off games to Dirk's 145. That's a pretty significant difference. Meanwhile, the difference between Magic (190) and Bird (165) is less than half that difference. If we're putting a premium on longevity, maybe we should also question how much Dirk's longeviy holds up when he played 20 less play-off games than Bird.


It was a bit sassy, sorry. But those ARE your words, verbatim; I'm just using your words to illustrate a point. If someone feels similarly [that success matters], AND values longevity a bit more than you, AND thinks that Magic's peak and prime are equal [or even a pinch better?] compared to Bird's.....that's how one could easily come to see not only Magic ahead, but even by more than one place.

And this can also be used as illustrative in the Dirk/Kobe comp: Bird's peak and prime are certainly debatable vs Magic's (there isn't a slam-dunk clear favorite), Magic has a tiny longevity edge, AND has more team success to his credit.......yet you still rank Bird ahead.

From that perspective, can it really be surprising that some might rank Dirk higher than Kobe? And do you really have solid footing to question it on the basis of things like team success?.....while you yourself rank Bird ahead of Magic DESPITE your opening declaring [as I quoted you above] that you're to some degree driven by team success [while most of them have stated they feel differently, btw]?

That's all I'm sayin'...
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #10 

Post#138 » by trex_8063 » Tue Nov 3, 2020 7:28 pm

DQuinn1575 wrote:1979 Records - Celtics 29-53, Lakers 47-35, Lakers have maybe best player of all-time, two next best players are 23 and 25 - improving, Celtics, 4 of top 6 are 30 and over. Yes Celtics add M.L. Carr - but Lakers add Michael Cooper.


'93 Celtics: 48 wins (-3 from '92), +0.93 SRS (-2.48 from '92), lost 1st round (lost semis in '92).
'92 Lakers: 43 wins (-15 from '91), -0.95 (-7.68 from '91), lost 1st round (had been in Finals in '91).

Not that this proves anything; I'm just using a similar line of argumentation, but at the OTHER end of their respective careers.

fwiw, the words of mine you bolded in your quote were not mine; I was using another poster's words [that I barely even half-believe in] to make a point.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #10 

Post#139 » by Dutchball97 » Tue Nov 3, 2020 7:35 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
There's also the factor of team success. Good players make teams win, and Magic won more (5 titles on 9 finals appearances, vs only 3 titles on only 5 appearances). Ignoring that seems like a good way to jump the shark on player evaluation.


This sounds a bit sassy. I never said Kobe has to be ahead of Dirk because he has more rings and finals appearances. Kobe played 220 play-off games to Dirk's 145. That's a pretty significant difference. Meanwhile, the difference between Magic (190) and Bird (165) is less than half that difference. If we're putting a premium on longevity, maybe we should also question how much Dirk's longeviy holds up when he played 20 less play-off games than Bird.


It was a bit sassy, sorry. But those ARE your words, verbatim; I'm just using your words to illustrate a point. If someone feels similarly [that success matters], AND values longevity a bit more than you, AND thinks that Magic's peak and prime are equal [or even a pinch better?] compared to Bird's.....that's how one could easily come to see not only Magic ahead, but even by more than one place.

And this can also be used as illustrative in the Dirk/Kobe comp: Bird's peak and prime are certainly debatable vs Magic's (there isn't a slam-dunk clear favorite), Magic has a tiny longevity edge, AND has more team success to his credit.......yet you still rank Bird ahead.

From that perspective, can it really be surprising that some might rank Dirk higher than Kobe? And do you really have solid footing to question it on the basis of things like team success?.....while you yourself rank Bird ahead of Magic DESPITE your opening declaring [as I quoted you above] that you're to some degree driven by team success [while most of them have stated they feel differently, btw]?

That's all I'm sayin'...


Was I that harsh on people having Dirk over Kobe? I thought I just made a case that team success does matter and that it's a valid argument for Kobe over Dirk. If you're only reason for having Kobe over Dirk is team success then I agree that's not a strong basis for a vote but I do think that team success can be a deciding factor when the players in question are otherwise comparable like I believe Kobe and Dirk to be.

However, what's important here is the context. If team success is all that mattered then Robert Horry would have an argument for best player of the modern era. Obviously a player's impact in achieving said success with their team is important to take note of as well. Bird was the best player for all his 3 rings, while you could argue Kareem was better than Magic in 80, 82 and 85. Now I don't want to go too far to the other end either where I disregard any ring that wasn't achieved as the leading man. I just think that all things considered I don't see Magic an entire tier ahead of Bird as a player but like I said to 70sfan, I'm letting it go and hope to move on to discussion other than Bird vs KG.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #10 

Post#140 » by Clyde Frazier » Tue Nov 3, 2020 7:36 pm

Vote 1 - Larry Bird
Vote 2 - Kobe Bryant
Vote 3 - Oscar Robertson

Bird is one of those few players along with Jordan and Magic where longevity isn't as important to me. What they accomplished in their careers stands on its own to propel them to this elite status. Even with bird having some inconsistent post season performances, his first title run in only his second season showed how special he was, and took his play to another level in 84 and 86. His sustained high level play in his later injury plagued years showed how complete he was as a basketball plyer.

He's in that elite class of great basketball minds and decision makers. Especially on the fly, he could make something out of nothing, and that applied to all aspects of play, not just scoring. He had an innate ability to see the floor in a way most other players couldn't. There isn't as complete and accomplished of a player left on the board to me.

Bird as a teammate

From himself on the court he seeks only consistency and considers that the true mark of excellence. ''But Larry's so sensitive to what his teammates need that he changes the emphasis of his game to accommodate them,'' says Jim Rodgers, the Celtics' senior assistant. ''It's a unique form of personal consistency, concentrating on the needs of others, isn't it?''

A Celtics teammate, Bill Walton, says: ''So much of it -- playing, in the locker room, away from basketball -- has to do with how much he cares. Larry cares about every element of everything he's involved in. With some people, the sphere of their life is so very small. The sphere of Larry's life is just huge.''

And yet these embers of generosity were kindled by the most incendiary competitive fires. Even now in the Valley there's not much amazement that Larry Bird turned out to be the greatest basketball player ever -- what the hell, somebody had to, so it might as well be a French Lick boy -- but there is some surprise that he could rise above the family temper to reach those heights. In order to win, Bird taught himself not to get angry, rather to gain satisfaction from somebody else's hot blood. ''I've learned it's a lot more fun making a shot with a guy hanging on you,'' he says.

Championships mean even more to Bird -- ''His mission,'' Auerbach calls them. ''That's why I play,'' Bird says. ''I'm just greedy on them things. Winning the championship -- I've never felt that way any other time, no matter how big some other game was. I remember the first time we won, against Houston (in 1981). We were way ahead at the end, and so I came out with three minutes left, and my heart was pounding so on the bench, I thought it would jump out of my chest. You know what you feel? You just want everything to stop and to stay like that forever.''

And that, in his way, is what Larry Bird does for us. He not only slows the world down, but he turns it back. ''I've studied it,'' Woolf says, ''and I think, above all, there's just an innocence with him. I think Larry takes anyone who knows him -- or sees him playing -- back to grammar school. Remember back then? Back then we didn't brag. We dove after the ball. We looked after our friends. I think with Larry we believe he'll save the team. We believe he'll save us somehow. So you follow him.''


http://www.si.com/nba/2007/10/24/flashback032188

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