OT Election Thread

[Michael Jackson]

Likely losing the White House and having 2 run-offs in Georgia to keep the Senate is the "best possible outcome"?

Best possible outcome for republicans was winning all 3 chambers.

I'm of the belief most of the republicans currently in DC are more than happy with getting rid of Trump all while suffering no real damage in Congress.

I’m with you. He wasn’t their candidate in 2016. He ran as an outsider, who had enough following to win, if the DNC hadn’t promised Hillary, it’s likely he could have bull rushed the Dems and done the same thing for them. The GOP though had no real candidate in place so they let trump run on his platform, but they never ever have liked him, but power is power. In a very simplistic way he was the free agent you hate, I I guess to the Bulls and bringing them a championship, but you still hate him.

[Dresden]

It's being reported that Trump has called Rupert Murdoch screaming at him over Fox calling AZ for Biden. He's nothing but an overgrown toddler, who throws a fit every time he doesn't get his way.

Not to condone Trump's alleged behavior, but its a bad idea for anyone to have called AZ yet.

At the same time, Trump seems like a villain from a teen book. Runs rampant bullying people, lying constantly but getting away with it, losing the election fairly but trying something underhanded to get out of it. It'd be comical if it weren't so sad that this is a real thing in our country.

How do we know it was a bad idea or not? These networks have teams of statisticians and political consultants that work on figuring these things out- people who know a lot more than you or I do about what is happening, and what the odds are of the race their being over or not.

[Dresden]

The Democrats have been trying to impeach Trump since he got into office,nobody talks about it now but what a waste of resources and time. So Trump being petty and calling for recounts is just his way of continuing the childish behavior by both political parties.

Truth is we as the people love it, no matter how you view it you want to be apart of a smaller group. And depending on your echo chamber its easy to believe anything. rant/

The reasons Trump was impeached were completely justified. He used military aid, paid for by US taxpayers, to further his own political agenda by blackmailing a foreign leader into digging up dirt on a political opponent. It might have even caused a number of deaths on the Ukrainian side, not getting that military aid in time. If the Senate had been impartial, he would have been convicted and removed from office.

[dougthonus]

How do we know it was a bad idea or not?

Biden doesn't have a commanding lead.

Biden's lead has been shrinking since election night and not growing.

The percentage of votes Trump needs to carry (55%) is less than the percentage of votes Biden needs to carry in PA/GA/NC (66%+) which they didn't call.

Not saying Biden won't win Arizona, but there's no reason that we shouldn't feel it is in play relative to the other states we are considering in play.

[the ultimates]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/
Nevada saying they have less than 200,00 votes to count mostly from democratic leaning Clark county.

It's a close race with a lot of votes to count but these networks and not calling a state is baffling. Yesterday the Wisconsin election commission said they had received all but 600 ballots and that Biden had a 20,000 vote lead approximately. Fivethirtyeight.com and their blog which is ABC affiliated still took like 30 minutes to say Biden will win Wisconsin.

I get not wanting to look foolish or jump the gun but you have the numbers from the commissions about outstanding ballots and where they are located. You have the numbers about how the votes are breaking down for each candidate that each network is putting into statistical models. The networks definitely are milking this.

Trumps lead is now down to less than 10,000 votes in Georgia.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/

[Dresden]

How do we know it was a bad idea or not?

Biden doesn't have a commanding lead.

Biden's lead has been shrinking since election night and not growing.

The percentage of votes Trump needs to carry (55%) is less than the percentage of votes Biden needs to carry in PA/GA/NC (66%+) which they didn't call.

Not saying Biden won't win Arizona, but there's no reason that we shouldn't feel it is in play relative to the other states we are considering in play.

When they call a race though, they do so by extrapolating what votes are out there yet, where they have been coming from, and how those are likely to break. It's possible that their team is making the calculations that the votes yet to be counted are not realistically going to favor Trump enough to overcome Biden's lead. And it's two different teams that made that determination, Fox and UPI. So it's not like it's just one outlier that came up with this.

[dougthonus]

When they call a race though, they do so by extrapolating what votes are out there yet, where they have been coming from, and how those are likely to break. It's possible that their team is making the calculations that the votes yet to be counted are not realistically going to favor Trump enough to overcome Biden's lead. And it's two different teams that made that determination, Fox and UPI. So it's not like it's just one outlier that came up with this.

It's possible they are calculating anything. I'm just saying the same standards and model there don't seem reasonable based on what is happening and how they have looked at other states. Trump halved Biden's lead there, so clearly there was a huge republican contingent left in the vote.

[Dresden]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/
Nevada saying they have less than 200,00 votes to count mostly from democratic leaning Clark county.

It's a close race with a lot of votes to count but these networks and not calling a state is baffling. Yesterday the Wisconsin election commission said they had received all but 600 ballots and that Biden had a 20,000 vote lead approximately. Fivethirtyeight.com and their blog which is ABC affiliated still took like 30 minutes to say Biden will win Wisconsin.

I get not wanting to look foolish or jump the gun but you have the numbers from the commissions about outstanding ballots and where they are located. You have the numbers about how the votes are breaking down for each candidate that each network is putting into statistical models. The networks definitely are milking this.

Trumps lead is now down to less than 10,000 votes in Georgia.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/

According to NYT, NV has 190K votes left to count, 90% of which are from Clark Co., which has been heavily skewing towards Biden. That race LOOKS like it should be an easy Biden win if that is the case.

And yes, GA is coming down to the wire- less than 10 difference, with possibly 50K votes left to count? Or maybe less than that. Going to be extremely close, one way or the other.

[dougthonus]

According to NYT, NV has 190K votes left to count, 90% of which are from Clark Co., which has been heavily skewing towards Biden. That race LOOKS like it should be an easy Biden win if that is the case.

Think NV is in the bag for Biden. Think probably NC for Trump.

I think the states that are actually up for debate are
GA, PA, AZ.

And yes, GA is coming down to the wire- less than 10 difference, with possibly 50K votes left to count? Or maybe less than that. Going to be extremely close, one way or the other.

Think it's more like 30k votes left. It was around 14k difference at 50k. Not sure Biden is going to make up enough of the difference there, but its right on the cusp, will probably come down to a couple thousand votes either way.

[Dresden]

When they call a race though, they do so by extrapolating what votes are out there yet, where they have been coming from, and how those are likely to break. It's possible that their team is making the calculations that the votes yet to be counted are not realistically going to favor Trump enough to overcome Biden's lead. And it's two different teams that made that determination, Fox and UPI. So it's not like it's just one outlier that came up with this.

It's possible they are calculating anything. I'm just saying the same standards and model there don't seem reasonable based on what is happening and how they have looked at other states. Trump halved Biden's lead there, so clearly there was a huge republican contingent left in the vote.

It's all in the modeling programs they are using. Just like with hurricane path predictions. Some models suggest one path, other models suggest another. The models Fox and UPI are using came up with a result that it would be impossible for Trump to overcome Biden's lead. Other organizations models are showing something different. It's hard to say one model is right and another model wrong without a larger sample size of accurate they are.

[Dresden]

According to NYT, NV has 190K votes left to count, 90% of which are from Clark Co., which has been heavily skewing towards Biden. That race LOOKS like it should be an easy Biden win if that is the case.

Think NV is in the bag for Biden. Think probably NC for Trump.

I think the states that are actually up for debate are
GA, PA, AZ.

And yes, GA is coming down to the wire- less than 10 difference, with possibly 50K votes left to count? Or maybe less than that. Going to be extremely close, one way or the other.

Think it's more like 30k votes left. It was around 14k difference at 50k. Not sure Biden is going to make up enough of the difference there, but its right on the cusp, will probably come down to a couple thousand votes either way.

Then he needs just one of GA, AZ, or PA. Anything can happen, but I'd say it's at least 10:1 in Biden's favor right now. With how quickly PA has been changing, Biden's chances there look very good.

It looks like there could be 400K votes left in AZ. Biden is ahead by 68K. In order to make that up, Trump would have to win the remaining ballots by a margin of 58.5-41.5%, according to my math. That's a pretty hefty margin he needs.

[dougthonus]

Then he needs just one of GA, AZ, or PA. Anything can happen, but I'd say it's at least 10:1 in Biden's favor right now. With how quickly PA has been changing, Biden's chances there look very good.

It looks like there could be 400K votes left in AZ. Biden is ahead by 68K. In order to make that up, Trump would have to win the remaining ballots by a margin of 58.5-41.5%, according to my math. That's a pretty hefty margin he needs.

My expectation is that Biden will win. I'd be surprised with any other outcome.

CNN just had a graphic up within 5 minutes of when I posted where they had the most recent vote count/votes remaining and said Trump would need 54-55% to win AZ. CNN hasn't called it yet though.

[Dresden]

Trump's lead in PA down to 78K. 7% still left to count. It was over 600K at one point late Tuesday.

[Dez]

Trump literally has the morons voting for him dancing like puppets.

How can so many people be so unbelievably stupid? It is mind-boggling.

[Dresden]

Trump literally has the morons voting for him dancing like puppets.

How can so many people be so unbelievably stupid? It is mind-boggling.

It's pathetic.

[CBS7]

PA is pretty much guaranteed to go Biden. It won't be close. Current trends say that he will win by 40-60k+. If (when) Biden gets PA, its over.
GA will be very close. It will be decided by just a few thousand.
AZ remains to be seen. Trump is outpacing what he needs currently, but a big chunk of remaining votes are in blue counties.

[Dez]

Trump literally has the morons voting for him dancing like puppets.

How can so many people be so unbelievably stupid? It is mind-boggling.

It's pathetic.

It's fine to not want to vote for Biden but to actually believe that Trump is the best thing for them, their family and their country after all the childish insults to everyone who disagrees with whether they be medical experts or celebrities is staggering. Literally throwing every single toy out of the cot because he doesn't believe he could lose an election and it must be corrupt and his supporters swallow every little bit of sh** he dribbles.

Why America? Why?

[chitowndish]

I feel like the states are waiting for Pennsylvania and then they will announce. Georgia has been stuck at 10k so long Nevada seems to be dragging their feet and Pennsylvania is just marching through a massive amount of work they had 1+mil votes to get through but they have been regularly updating. I think Georgia and Nevada are going to wait for Pennsylvania to get through all of their votes and then all of them will announce together and just end it in a way that it would be embarrassing for Trump to continue to fight it. That's my view at least each of these states seem to get right to where they would call it for Biden and wait for Pennsylvania.

[Dresden]

PA is pretty much guaranteed to go Biden. It won't be close. Current trends say that he will win by 40-60k+. If (when) Biden gets PA, its over.
GA will be very close. It will be decided by just a few thousand.
AZ remains to be seen. Trump is outpacing what he needs currently, but a big chunk of remaining votes are in blue counties.

I hope that's right. Just in last 10 minutes, lead has shrunk from 78K to 75K.

[Dresden]

Trump literally has the morons voting for him dancing like puppets.

How can so many people be so unbelievably stupid? It is mind-boggling.

It's pathetic.

It's fine to not want to vote for Biden but to actually believe that Trump is the best thing for them, their family and their country after all the childish insults to everyone who disagrees with whether they be medical experts or celebrities is staggering. Literally throwing every single toy out of the cot because he doesn't believe he could lose an election and it must be corrupt and his supporters swallow every little bit of sh** he dribbles.

Why America? Why?

I also don't understand how some people think there will be no real difference whether Biden or Trump becomes president.