2020 Presidential Election Thread: IT'S THE FINAL (vote) COUNTDOWN! [update pg 61: Joe Biden elected 46th POTUS]

[aq_ua]

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[cgmw]

Candace Owens is going to have to find a new grift.

the sad thing is, even if trump loses they'll have plenty of fans. they will continue to confirm whatever they do for whoever wants to hear it.

but word. trump losing would be a significant blow for them. it will be interesting to watch their moves... or not.

Cults don’t do very good when dear leader is gone. Unfortunately even after he’s not the president he is still going to be around for a while giving marching orders to his people. I swear he’s running again in 2024 or his son will. The GOP have no choice. He is the party.

My read on it is the GOP has been brilliant at segmenting and consolidating power via voter suppression (voting rights act, gerrymandering, redistricting etc) and judicial domination; but when it comes to unifying a national message they’ve relied on Fox News because it’s really really difficult to come out nationally in favor of racist, homophobic, faith-based (Christian) tribalism.

On a national level, they will continue to trot out cartoonish morons because their rural white base is unified and motivated by ignorance (literally a lack of factual information).

Trump will now shift entirely to profiteering mode and continue his WWE style tour of minor-league stadiums, but this time he’ll be able to sell merchandise and create a cable station like his good buddy Jim Dolan. He will certainly campaign for 4 years while simultaneously striking sweetheart hotel/golf deals with an international criminal element hoping for a 2024 Presidential quid pro quo.

The big difference now will be that a Trump tweet is less likely to set off mass hysteria, while simultaneously the mechanisms of government itself will be re-staffed by actual adults.

[j4remi]

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Not wrong though

Did she just say Biden and Lincoln threw the best persuasive messaging in history

Anyway, Bitcofer has some good in there but also some stuff that's off base.

Spoiler:

1-3 tweets: She starts off really badly and I feel like this is pretty obvious. What was the point of the Lincoln Project again? To persuade never Trump Republicans to swing over? Yet the only data we get in this thread is to show that more indies or Republican and then claim that Republicans are not persuadable. Now listen, I co-sign that 100%. But that's exactly why I told you guys the Lincoln Project was conning the Dems this whole time and now after they've cashed in 10's of millions of dollars to form a media group...turns out the one valuable piece of the LP doesn't even think Republicans are persuadable.

Spoiler:

4: There's some truth there. The Republicans are really good at centering messages and making all the local races congeal into a unified brand. The Dems don't do that because they can't. It's a party with AOC on one end and Joe Manchin on the other. Chasing a national referendum in a big tent party is a fool's errand. I find it problematic that she claims the Dems centered their strategy around "Issues." They didn't...just look at this thread for how Dem messaging worked:

They ran a "Joe's a good guy and Trump's a bad guy" campaign. Multiple times when people have posted in this thread saying that the Dems don't care about (insert demographic), the response was a stern message about Trump's Fascism or a link to a generic campaign site. Biden had plans and policies because a platform is part of running; but the idea that he wasn't dodging issues like you'd dodge a wrench is laughable.

I think the confusion here is that the Republicans manufactured Wedge Issues (divisive issues that you push opponents to choose a side on in hopes that they'll alienate some of their supporters). We just talked about it a bit. Biden tried to avoid picking sides on wedge issues and imo that bit him because everyone assumed the worst. You guys disagree and think that choice was helpful; that's cool too. But let's not pretend that the Dems didn't take Obama's strategy of staying vague hasn't been THE strategy of the Dems for four consecutive elections now.

Spoiler:

5-10: I agree that you need to speak to constituencies in their own language. I just don't think you can accomplish that by thinking you're better than a person. So the "they're stupid" stuff is cathartic for yall, but if I ever do the canvassing thing again it'd be a terrible mindset to take into actual appeals to the voters. I think code-switching is the more apt way to understand this. You don't need to dumb down your message, but you do need to drop the jargon and speak to a person in the manner they're comfortable speaking.

I find it hilarious that Bitcofer makes it sound like we lost by disallowing workplace sexism. There's a pretty large gap between the overplayed Identity Politics card where people are afraid that if they misgender someone they just met that they'll get in trouble and men demanding the right to slap female co-workers' asses or call someone a gay slur. There's a gap between friendly banter and being a straight up racist. I'd hope we don't reduce this argument so much that Bitcofer's representation here actually appeals to you guys...(Sidenote: My family is blue collar as hell the first college grads are a handful in my generation, we come from this world so I have a problem with how she has reduced the "unpolished" to overt bigots rather than acknowledging that there's a scale here).

Spoiler:

11-13: I agree that you can't just tweak the message or come up with a better way to say things. I agree with that 100%. So yeah, yall got to run a candidate that was the centrist. He openly rejected the progressive politics, said he didn't need the Latino vote to win, didn't support universal healthcare, Clyburn gave him a major boost via the wall of Southern States that Dems never win in a presidential election...

If this the best we could do with that kind of candidate then we need new candidates with different ideas and approaches. We need candidates that know how to code-switch and translate their ideas for different demographics. They don't need to wonk out, just have simple explanations that are relatable (AOC and Katie Porter are great at this). I wouldn't throw out issues, which is ridiculous. But we should come up with simple messaging around issues that unite (climate change was an easy one this time around). Using wedge issues would be nice too.

I like the main crux of the thread. The establishment Dems just took their best shot with their hand selected candidate and a big portion of the voters they focused on turned out to be unpersuadable (twice now). Time to try something different.

[Jeff Van Gully]

Cults don’t do very good when dear leader is gone. Unfortunately even after he’s not the president he is still going to be around for a while giving marching orders to his people. I swear he’s running again in 2024 or his son will. The GOP have no choice. He is the party.

very interesting scenario of trump running in 2024. i'd think ivanka would be the play over any of his sons. i always figured the plan was 2 donald terms and some kind of transition to ivanka.

I wonder if the Republican party will support him again. I'd imagine a number of them are not on board with his claiming vote fraud.

yeah. i think with this L the party regroups somehow.

[Oscirus]

Candace Owens is going to have to find a new grift.

the sad thing is, even if trump loses they'll have plenty of fans. they will continue to confirm whatever they do for whoever wants to hear it.

but word. trump losing would be a significant blow for them. it will be interesting to watch their moves... or not.

Cults don’t do very good when dear leader is gone. Unfortunately even after he’s not the president he is still going to be around for a while giving marching orders to his people. I swear he’s running again in 2024 or his son will. The GOP have no choice. He is the party.

Trump doesnt even want his embarrassing son to run for mayor of ny. Worst that'll happen is he talks **** on fox. Maybe he'll make his triumphant return in 4 years but I'll worry about that in 22.

[ITGM]

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They're gonna love you in Prison, Donnie Boy!

[Jeff Van Gully]

the sad thing is, even if trump loses they'll have plenty of fans. they will continue to confirm whatever they do for whoever wants to hear it.

but word. trump losing would be a significant blow for them. it will be interesting to watch their moves... or not.

Cults don’t do very good when dear leader is gone. Unfortunately even after he’s not the president he is still going to be around for a while giving marching orders to his people. I swear he’s running again in 2024 or his son will. The GOP have no choice. He is the party.

My read on it is the GOP has been brilliant at segmenting and consolidating power via voter suppression (voting rights act, gerrymandering, redistricting etc) and judicial domination; but when it comes to unifying a national message they’ve relied on Fox News because it’s really really difficult to come out nationally in favor of racist, homophobic, faith-based (Christian) tribalism.

On a national level, they will continue to trot out cartoonish morons because their rural white base is unified and motivated by ignorance (literally a lack of factual information).

Trump will now shift entirely to profiteering mode and continue his WWE style tour of minor-league stadiums, but this time he’ll be able to sell merchandise and create a cable station like his good buddy Jim Dolan. He will certainly campaign for 4 years while simultaneously striking sweetheart hotel/golf deals with an international criminal element hoping for a 2024 Presidential quid pro quo.

The big difference now will be that a Trump tweet is less likely to set off mass hysteria, while simultaneously the mechanisms of government itself will be re-staffed by actual adults.

some believe the shift you are describing was his intention all along. there were reports he couldn't believe he won. it might have been easier for him if he lost and went straight to the merch/media/etc.

LBJ had some thoughts on this part.

[j4remi]

Here's the other side of examining the failures of the Democratic party down ballot...

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AOC very succinctly touching upon some of my complaints and adding more information and context to everything. The wildest part is how the DCCC didn't hire the best digital firms out of spite over helping progressive campaigns. They made that threat though I didn't think they'd follow through with it to the point of shooting themselves in the foot; I do admit that I have to take a closer look at that part though to verify...it does fit with what they said they'd be doing though.

[rammagen]

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whether you are excited about him or not you have to admit the exp he brings along with Harris shows some sort of hope for the future

Tell you what and from a small sample size. Most people I know just want Trump out and will deal with Biden in 4 years if things stay the same or get worse. First things first.

Things will get better first Biden no matter what trump says is a catholic family man and will trust science and seems to care about the less fortunate. As a catholic also Jeb Bush went to the same church in south Florida, I did not care for his politics but he is a decent person, was always there to help the less fortunate and really cared about people. I can see some of the same traits in Biden from afar

[stuporman]

I'm just still concerned that moving forward, what our message should be. We still need to get through to some folks in these deep red states at some point and so far, our messaging has sucked. If we don't, gaining ground there will never happen.

Hopefully, we can get more Stacey Abrams types in other areas. She really did her thing in GA.

I've never lived in the South, nor midwest... what messaging do you think breaks through? It seemed like there was a Sanders/Trump crossover for those that were protectionist but not necessarily racists. I also think M4A could be packaged well more universally. But I think it's a fundamentally different message than the one that the Dems currently have that gets it done. I.e. it's not the hat, it's the bull. And I don't want the authoritarianism or supremacy/xenophobia messaging to seep in either.

Stacy Abrams laid out the blue print for the south. Engage black voters and get them to turn out! It’s not a policy issue. Those Sanders/Trump crossover voters hated Hillary more than they love their country. I agree Democrats need to change their approach and move away from trying to appeal to white republican light voters. There’s a strategy that focuses on suburbs and urban centres that activates new black, Latino, and young voters but doesn’t alienate suburban white left leaning voters. The myth of the centre voter is officially dead

More Sanders supporters turned out for Clinton than Clinton supporters turned out for Obama so that Sanders/Trump voter is a myth created by Clintonites to blame because she was a terrible candidate.

It's a very rare outlier to find someone who supports Sanders and his policies that would vote for Trump just because of this so called Clinton hate, it didn't happen in the way the centrist Clinton supporters are trying to say that it did.

The hate that lost the election for Clinton was the hate the blue collar workers across the mid-west had for her that they didn't have for Sanders so he probably could have gotten their vote but that didn't make them his supporters in the way it's being portrayed.

[GONYK]

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Not wrong though

Did she just say Biden and Lincoln threw the best persuasive messaging in history

Anyway, Bitcofer has some good in there but also some stuff that's off base.

Spoiler:

1-3 tweets: She starts off really badly and I feel like this is pretty obvious. What was the point of the Lincoln Project again? To persuade never Trump Republicans to swing over? Yet the only data we get in this thread is to show that more indies or Republican and then claim that Republicans are not persuadable. Now listen, I co-sign that 100%. But that's exactly why I told you guys the Lincoln Project was conning the Dems this whole time and now after they've cashed in 10's of millions of dollars to form a media group...turns out the one valuable piece of the LP doesn't even think Republicans are persuadable.

Spoiler:

4: There's some truth there. The Republicans are really good at centering messages and making all the local races congeal into a unified brand. The Dems don't do that because they can't. It's a party with AOC on one end and Joe Manchin on the other. Chasing a national referendum in a big tent party is a fool's errand. I find it problematic that she claims the Dems centered their strategy around "Issues." They didn't...just look at this thread for how Dem messaging worked:

They ran a "Joe's a good guy and Trump's a bad guy" campaign. Multiple times when people have posted in this thread saying that the Dems don't care about (insert demographic), the response was a stern message about Trump's Fascism or a link to a generic campaign site. Biden had plans and policies because a platform is part of running; but the idea that he wasn't dodging issues like you'd dodge a wrench is laughable.

I think the confusion here is that the Republicans manufactured Wedge Issues (divisive issues that you push opponents to choose a side on in hopes that they'll alienate some of their supporters). We just talked about it a bit. Biden tried to avoid picking sides on wedge issues and imo that bit him because everyone assumed the worst. You guys disagree and think that choice was helpful; that's cool too. But let's not pretend that the Dems didn't take Obama's strategy of staying vague hasn't been THE strategy of the Dems for four consecutive elections now.

Spoiler:

5-10: I agree that you need to speak to constituencies in their own language. I just don't think you can accomplish that by thinking you're better than a person. So the "they're stupid" stuff is cathartic for yall, but if I ever do the canvassing thing again it'd be a terrible mindset to take into actual appeals to the voters. I think code-switching is the more apt way to understand this. You don't need to dumb down your message, but you do need to drop the jargon and speak to a person in the manner they're comfortable speaking.

I find it hilarious that Bitcofer makes it sound like we lost by disallowing workplace sexism. There's a pretty large gap between the overplayed Identity Politics card where people are afraid that if they misgender someone they just met that they'll get in trouble and men demanding the right to slap female co-workers' asses or call someone a gay slur. There's a gap between friendly banter and being a straight up racist. I'd hope we don't reduce this argument so much that Bitcofer's representation here actually appeals to you guys...(Sidenote: My family is blue collar as hell the first college grads are a handful in my generation, we come from this world so I have a problem with how she has reduced the "unpolished" to overt bigots rather than acknowledging that there's a scale here).

Spoiler:

11-13: I agree that you can't just tweak the message or come up with a better way to say things. I agree with that 100%. So yeah, yall got to run a candidate that was the centrist. He openly rejected the progressive politics, said he didn't need the Latino vote to win, didn't support universal healthcare, Clyburn gave him a major boost via the wall of Southern States that Dems never win in a presidential election...

If this the best we could do with that kind of candidate then we need new candidates with different ideas and approaches. We need candidates that know how to code-switch and translate their ideas for different demographics. They don't need to wonk out, just have simple explanations that are relatable (AOC and Katie Porter are great at this). I wouldn't throw out issues, which is ridiculous. But we should come up with simple messaging around issues that unite (climate change was an easy one this time around). Using wedge issues would be nice too.

I like the main crux of the thread. The establishment Dems just took their best shot with their hand selected candidate and a big portion of the voters they focused on turned out to be unpersuadable (twice now). Time to try something different.

I was hoping you would see the thread and I'm glad you were able to respond.

I don't disagree with you, but we may or may not differ on the path forward.

I don't think there is any way that someone who leans into socialism and wokeism can become the party leader. At least not people who are explicitly those things. So I rule out the ascendency of someone like AOC.

I think Dems can craft a message with Blue Collar compassion without resorting to the baser natures of white nationalism. I agree that Dems may have forgotten how to talk to people. Every time a black person asked Biden why they should vote for him, and Biden went to policy, I cringed. The answer wasn't wrong, but it also wasn't what the person was truly asking.

I think socialism needs to be rebranded towards populism, or more generally progressivism, and the conversation around identity needs to be more understanding than accusatory.

But I also think we shouldn't analyze a race we won like we lost it, and throw the baby out with the bathwater. The big takeaway is that Dems have a marketing/messaging problem. I don't know if our hearts are fundamentally in the wrong place.

[j4remi]

Some more smaller points of contention based responses to the people blaming the left wing of the party for their own failures...

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[robillionaire]

Here's the other side of examining the failures of the Democratic party down ballot...

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

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Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

AOC very succinctly touching upon some of my complaints and adding more information and context to everything. The wildest part is how the DCCC didn't hire the best digital firms out of spite over helping progressive campaigns. They made that threat though I didn't think they'd follow through with it to the point of shooting themselves in the foot; I do admit that I have to take a closer look at that part though to verify...it does fit with what they said they'd be doing though.

I might begrudgingly vote for a dem I don't like if backed into a corner but I'd never give money to the DCCC, my energy, donations, that's going only to people I believe actually want to fight for a sustainable future

[Oscirus]

Here's the other side of examining the failures of the Democratic party down ballot...

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

AOC very succinctly touching upon some of my complaints and adding more information and context to everything. The wildest part is how the DCCC didn't hire the best digital firms out of spite over helping progressive campaigns. They made that threat though I didn't think they'd follow through with it to the point of shooting themselves in the foot; I do admit that I have to take a closer look at that part though to verify...it does fit with what they said they'd be doing though.

She's not wrong in some parts, but ultimately the civil war does need to stop in the dem party. While progressives tend to be extreme the party does need to start listening to and embracing them, and while the corporate democrats really need to stop selling themselves as republican light ( hopefully this practice ends now that trump is out), they also have good points financial wise.

[GONYK]

Here's the other side of examining the failures of the Democratic party down ballot...

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

AOC very succinctly touching upon some of my complaints and adding more information and context to everything. The wildest part is how the DCCC didn't hire the best digital firms out of spite over helping progressive campaigns. They made that threat though I didn't think they'd follow through with it to the point of shooting themselves in the foot; I do admit that I have to take a closer look at that part though to verify...it does fit with what they said they'd be doing though.

She makes some good points, but I don't understand why these are "either/or" discussions and not "yes and" discussions.

Dems had enough money to do it all this cycle.

[rammagen]

the sad thing is, even if trump loses they'll have plenty of fans. they will continue to confirm whatever they do for whoever wants to hear it.

but word. trump losing would be a significant blow for them. it will be interesting to watch their moves... or not.

Cults don’t do very good when dear leader is gone. Unfortunately even after he’s not the president he is still going to be around for a while giving marching orders to his people. I swear he’s running again in 2024 or his son will. The GOP have no choice. He is the party.

My read on it is the GOP has been brilliant at segmenting and consolidating power via voter suppression (voting rights act, gerrymandering, redistricting etc) and judicial domination; but when it comes to unifying a national message they’ve relied on Fox News because it’s really really difficult to come out nationally in favor of racist, homophobic, faith-based (Christian) tribalism.

On a national level, they will continue to trot out cartoonish morons because their rural white base is unified and motivated by ignorance (literally a lack of factual information).

Trump will now shift entirely to profiteering mode and continue his WWE style tour of minor-league stadiums, but this time he’ll be able to sell merchandise and create a cable station like his good buddy Jim Dolan. He will certainly campaign for 4 years while simultaneously striking sweetheart hotel/golf deals with an international criminal element hoping for a 2024 Presidential quid pro quo.

The big difference now will be that a Trump tweet is less likely to set off mass hysteria, while simultaneously the mechanisms of government itself will be re-staffed by actual adults.

Mabey twitter will finally suspend his account for the lies he is telling

[robillionaire]

Here's the other side of examining the failures of the Democratic party down ballot...

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

AOC very succinctly touching upon some of my complaints and adding more information and context to everything. The wildest part is how the DCCC didn't hire the best digital firms out of spite over helping progressive campaigns. They made that threat though I didn't think they'd follow through with it to the point of shooting themselves in the foot; I do admit that I have to take a closer look at that part though to verify...it does fit with what they said they'd be doing though.

She's not wrong in some parts, but ultimately the civil war does need to stop in the dem party. While progressives tend to be extreme the party does need to start listening to and embracing them, and while the corporate democrats really need to stop selling themselves as republican light ( hopefully this practice ends now that trump is out), they also have good points financial wise.

I wouldn't call it a civil war more than a very spirited debate but the fact is that no matter what direction we go everybody needs to feel like they at least have some kind of seat at the table. I thought the dem convention this year was a disgrace.

[Oscirus]

Mcsally lost both seats in arizona lolz noice

[robillionaire]

Cults don’t do very good when dear leader is gone. Unfortunately even after he’s not the president he is still going to be around for a while giving marching orders to his people. I swear he’s running again in 2024 or his son will. The GOP have no choice. He is the party.

My read on it is the GOP has been brilliant at segmenting and consolidating power via voter suppression (voting rights act, gerrymandering, redistricting etc) and judicial domination; but when it comes to unifying a national message they’ve relied on Fox News because it’s really really difficult to come out nationally in favor of racist, homophobic, faith-based (Christian) tribalism.

On a national level, they will continue to trot out cartoonish morons because their rural white base is unified and motivated by ignorance (literally a lack of factual information).

Trump will now shift entirely to profiteering mode and continue his WWE style tour of minor-league stadiums, but this time he’ll be able to sell merchandise and create a cable station like his good buddy Jim Dolan. He will certainly campaign for 4 years while simultaneously striking sweetheart hotel/golf deals with an international criminal element hoping for a 2024 Presidential quid pro quo.

The big difference now will be that a Trump tweet is less likely to set off mass hysteria, while simultaneously the mechanisms of government itself will be re-staffed by actual adults.

Mabey twitter will finally suspend his account for the lies he is telling

they can't ban him, their stock would crash. but they banned me for saying mitch mcconnell should jump off a cliff

[j4remi]

I was hoping you would see the thread and I'm glad you were able to respond.

I don't disagree with you, but we may or may not differ on the path forward.

I don't think there is any way that someone who leans into socialism and wokeism can become the party leader. At least not people who are explicitly those things. So I rule out the ascendency of someone like AOC.

I think Dems can craft a message with Blue Collar compassion without resorting to the baser natures of white nationalism. I agree that Dems may have forgotten how to talk to people. Every time a black person asked Biden why they should vote for him, and Biden went to policy, I cringed. The answer wasn't wrong, but it also wasn't what the person was truly asking.

I think socialism needs to be rebranded towards populism and the conversation around identity needs to be more understanding than accusatory.

Absolutely agree with all of this. I think AOC's problem is that she's already been targeted with the type of attacks that the GOP used to disarm Hillary Clinton over a long term and she also has the establishment of her own party targeting her (ie: her primary challenger ran a third party ticket in the election and still raised 7 figures of donations).

But generally speaking, I do think that any attempt to build out with the Democratic Socialist cause is going to struggle as they move up to higher stages of government at least until sentiment is pushed further left on economic issues (by voting bloc changes moreso than persuasion imo). I'm still nervous at the prospects of AOC challenging a Senator in NY and NY is becoming a legitimate lefty hotbed for us.

On the messaging aspect, did you catch any of the Charles Booker campaign? He broke through late in the primary season and still almost over took McGrath. That's notable bc McGrath got a TON of resources from the party and was a Schumer direct pick. Booker's Hood to the Holler concept in Kentucky really gained traction by trying to bridge urban and rural needs. It was brilliant. But he broke so late that mail-in ballots had been cast by quite a big margin. I think his campaign is worth a look though (I also think he'd have done better against Mcconnell though Idk about beating Mitch outright...just better).

But I also think we shouldn't analyze a race we won like we lost it, and throw the baby out with the bathwater. The big takeaway is that Dems have a marketing/messaging problem. I don't know if our hearts are fundamentally in the wrong place.

I refuse to call it a win just because Biden squeaked by. Not when the House lost seats, the Senate still requires us to win run-offs to control and state legislatures that handle redistricting will be majority Republican for the most part. That's a loss electorally. Throw in that the Judicial branch is lost for a generation and I think there's a lot more soul searching to do.