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OT Election Thread

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Re: OT Election Thread 

Post#541 » by jmajew » Fri Nov 6, 2020 3:10 pm

PlayerUp wrote:
MrSparkle wrote:Trump and AOC are terrible types for presidency. Anything that totally alienates 30% or more is a recipe for implosion.


Connecting with your base is how Trump got elected though. Swap Trump for any other republican nominee in 2016 and Hillary would have won. AOC is popular and will make a strong push for president someday and I think she'll do far better than Bernie did. Will she win? Likely not but America is changing and AOC may change as well and move more to the center.


I strongly disagree with that. If John Kasich would have won the nomination in 2016 he would have won. All the polling at that time showed him beating Hilary. I think John Kasich would have been one of the best presidents ever. Could you have imagined him? He would have worked across the aisle and made common sense decisions. I voted for Gary Johnson in 2016 but if Kasich would have won the nomination I would have voted for him.
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Re: OT Election Thread 

Post#542 » by PlayerUp » Fri Nov 6, 2020 3:12 pm

jmajew wrote:All the polling at that time showed him beating Hilary.


Is this the same polling that had Biden +8 up in Ohio, +13 in Florida, +5 in Texas?

We have learned that polls are meaningless.
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Re: OT Election Thread 

Post#543 » by MrFortune3 » Fri Nov 6, 2020 3:13 pm

The primary thing that needs to be addressed once the focus on the pandemic has been able to be lessened.
The President has to begin to work on uniting the American people again.

It is amazing to see how divided this country has become.
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Re: OT Election Thread 

Post#544 » by MrSparkle » Fri Nov 6, 2020 3:14 pm

TheStig wrote:The problem with Bernie and AOC is that they lean into socialism too much. The branding is horrible for most americans. The ideas are interesting but the marketing and scope is bad. The green new deal is huge! Has no chance. And then they want student loans forgiven, free colleges, medicare for all, taxes up to like 80%. Even as someone who leans progressive it's crazy. They need to focus on medicare for all and be willing to settle for a real public option for all with subsidies, free community college for all, additional green incentives. Medicare at a lower age. Their position is just impossible.


Yeah, and I support progressive change but most of these ideas would (maybe) start in the House and die in the Senate anyway, even if president Bernie or AOC tried to demand them.

The appeal of Yang (which apparently wasn’t enough) was just bringing to light practical issues that most people can agree in. Rank-based voting, addressing the opioid crisis, ways of regulating or pressuring big tech, energy sectors and job creation in rural America, UBI which would immensely help small-business and start-up workers who don’t make a corporate salary.

What I like about UBI is it’s an economic/circulation concept, not a form of welfare. Atleast I’d like to see it tried (in a small amount), sooner than promising free-everything while jacking taxes which would probably affect 80% of the population (not just the 1%).
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Re: OT Election Thread 

Post#545 » by jmajew » Fri Nov 6, 2020 3:16 pm

PlayerUp wrote:
jmajew wrote:All the polling at that time showed him beating Hilary.


Is this the same polling that had Biden +8 up in Ohio, +13 in Florida, +5 in Texas?

We have learned that polls are meaningless.


I was going to put that in their as a caveat, but I thought I could make an argument Republicans are just being under counted and it doesn't have as much to do with Trump as people say.
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Re: OT Election Thread 

Post#546 » by Dresden » Fri Nov 6, 2020 3:17 pm

Apparently Biden is winning the late vote even in red counties in PA that are coming in, because it's mostly mail in votes at this point. And there are still 20K votes from Philly suburbs and 37K from Pittsburgh to be counted.
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Re: OT Election Thread 

Post#547 » by Dresden » Fri Nov 6, 2020 3:23 pm

Speaking of pollster, wow, do they have a lot of explaining to do. Two elections in a row they have done a terrible job. I don't see how they recover from that for a long time. To screw up once, understandable, maybe Trump is a unique candidate, maybe things are changing with social media, etc., but to do it a second time? I mean, who will trust them anymore? It's like a doctor who misdiagnoses you not once, but twice. Would you ever have faith in them again?
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Re: OT Election Thread 

Post#548 » by Michael Jackson » Fri Nov 6, 2020 3:24 pm

MrFortune3 wrote:The primary thing that needs to be addressed once the focus on the pandemic has been able to be lessened.
The President has to begin to work on uniting the American people again.

It is amazing to see how divided this country has become.


Yup! Its a problem on a large scale. Its mostly middle class white America hurling insults back and forth at each other of, You are a blind socialist or you are a stupid racist. We have let the very vocal extremes shape hate on both sides. Conversations never get far when the both sides are calling each other stupid. It is out of hand.
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Re: OT Election Thread 

Post#549 » by Dresden » Fri Nov 6, 2020 3:28 pm

MrSparkle wrote:
TheStig wrote:The problem with Bernie and AOC is that they lean into socialism too much. The branding is horrible for most americans. The ideas are interesting but the marketing and scope is bad. The green new deal is huge! Has no chance. And then they want student loans forgiven, free colleges, medicare for all, taxes up to like 80%. Even as someone who leans progressive it's crazy. They need to focus on medicare for all and be willing to settle for a real public option for all with subsidies, free community college for all, additional green incentives. Medicare at a lower age. Their position is just impossible.


Yeah, and I support progressive change but most of these ideas would (maybe) start in the House and die in the Senate anyway, even if president Bernie or AOC tried to demand them.

The appeal of Yang (which apparently wasn’t enough) was just bringing to light practical issues that most people can agree in. Rank-based voting, addressing the opioid crisis, ways of regulating or pressuring big tech, energy sectors and job creation in rural America, UBI which would immensely help small-business and start-up workers who don’t make a corporate salary.

What I like about UBI is it’s an economic/circulation concept, not a form of welfare. Atleast I’d like to see it tried (in a small amount), sooner than promising free-everything while jacking taxes which would probably affect 80% of the population (not just the 1%).


The thing is most of those progressive ideas you mentioned could have broad public support once the details are explained. Most already favor a universal health care system. I don't know the current polling on the other topics, but there are a lot of people concerned with climate change, and if we could get on a path towards reducing emissions, while at the same time making an investment that would create more jobs, it's a win-win.

College debt is just crushing a lot of young people- some form of reduction in debt is needed, and would be popular. Free college- if it can be paid for without increasing the debt (like taking money from the military, for instance, or taxing the stock market), a lot of people would benefit, so I think it too, could be a popular idea, if it was framed in the right way. And it probably would not be completely free, just lower cost for a lot of people, and maybe free to those who really need it.
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Re: OT Election Thread 

Post#550 » by Michael Jackson » Fri Nov 6, 2020 3:33 pm

Dresden wrote:Speaking of pollster, wow, do they have a lot of explaining to do. Two elections in a row they have done a terrible job. I don't see how they recover from that for a long time. To screw up once, understandable, maybe Trump is a unique candidate, maybe things are changing with social media, etc., but to do it a second time? I mean, who will trust them anymore? It's like a doctor who misdiagnoses you not once, but twice. Would you ever have faith in them again?



It looks like they were trying to either influence votes or are really clueless at their jobs. Either way it just bodes poorly for them. While your intention might be right as a pollster you have to be through and unbiased completely, it is also why people lose faith in a lot of reports, we need these things through and unbiased. Seriously though after 2016 they should have been on top of their game. Just talking to people I knew that those numbers didn't seem right. I knew a shocking amount of people (mind you 1 person would have been shocking) who voted for Obama and Hillary that were voting against Biden. I couldn't logically comprehend this but it was a trend I saw in day to day interactions. I didn't trust the pollsters after 2016 and my gut from talking to people was correct. My office last time was 80/20 blue and this election I would say it was closer to 60/40 red.... WTF! My customer base shifted too. I mean we locally here are in the middle of a blue beating heart, it was shocking.
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Re: OT Election Thread 

Post#551 » by PlayerUp » Fri Nov 6, 2020 3:34 pm

MrSparkle wrote:Yeah, and I support progressive change but most of these ideas would (maybe) start in the House and die in the Senate anyway, even if president Bernie or AOC tried to demand them.


Bidens donors do not.
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Re: OT Election Thread 

Post#552 » by PlayerUp » Fri Nov 6, 2020 3:54 pm

Another popular potential GOP candidate of the future.

Candace Owens
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Re: OT Election Thread 

Post#553 » by LateNight » Fri Nov 6, 2020 4:17 pm

Re: polls

The issue is that they have no way of polling. Online data is not verified and no one answers their phone anymore. They don’t have the manpower for door to door sampling that would have any meaningful impact.

Online might work, but it wouldn’t reflect large chunks of older or less-connected voters.

Everything is in flux - this is an issue with data analysis / ratings in all sorts of fields now. The sourcing hasn’t caught up with the times
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Re: OT Election Thread 

Post#554 » by MrSparkle » Fri Nov 6, 2020 4:32 pm

Michael Jackson wrote:
Dresden wrote:Speaking of pollster, wow, do they have a lot of explaining to do. Two elections in a row they have done a terrible job. I don't see how they recover from that for a long time. To screw up once, understandable, maybe Trump is a unique candidate, maybe things are changing with social media, etc., but to do it a second time? I mean, who will trust them anymore? It's like a doctor who misdiagnoses you not once, but twice. Would you ever have faith in them again?



It looks like they were trying to either influence votes or are really clueless at their jobs. Either way it just bodes poorly for them. While your intention might be right as a pollster you have to be through and unbiased completely, it is also why people lose faith in a lot of reports, we need these things through and unbiased. Seriously though after 2016 they should have been on top of their game. Just talking to people I knew that those numbers didn't seem right. I knew a shocking amount of people (mind you 1 person would have been shocking) who voted for Obama and Hillary that were voting against Biden. I couldn't logically comprehend this but it was a trend I saw in day to day interactions. I didn't trust the pollsters after 2016 and my gut from talking to people was correct. My office last time was 80/20 blue and this election I would say it was closer to 60/40 red.... WTF! My customer base shifted too. I mean we locally here are in the middle of a blue beating heart, it was shocking.


Well, every presidential election, the popular vote and electoral vote are slightly at odds, and there's always an unforeseen X-Factor that tilts the race, whether it be Ross Perrot, Gen. Y record turnout, Bernie or Bust, or this year, I'd say the Cuban/FL vote was the real WTF nobody saw coming. Biden ended up having no chance in FL, and pretty much everybody predicted it'd either be a nail-biter or a Biden win. And FL called it really early, which made it seem like a much bigger "**** you" to the pollsters and statisticians (and for sure freaked and disappointed the hell out of me on Tue. night).

Otherwise, 538 mentioned a whole lot before the election, the nature of polling errors and statistics: https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/what-the-2020-election-map-would-look-like-if-theres-a-2016-sized-polling-error/?cid=referral_taboola_feed

And the warnings and predictions about how these mail-fraud shenanigans would go down, they were all there as well. But I do double down that the Democratic party in general does not portray a solid understanding of rural America. They're totally missing something, and I'm glad they got MI, WI and PA (hopefully stands) back on the map, but the fact that they needed to flip and sweat it out, it's still concerning.

They really miscalculated TX, and it keeps happening. Tied to that and FL, they miscalculated the Latino vote. They should frankly stop calling it the Latino vote and just look at each demographic separately; American-Cubans, Puerto Ricans, Mexicans, Texicans, Ecuadorians, these are all very different cultures, in different parts of the countries, with totally different interests and political affiliations.

I'm most dismayed that we were told the Senate had a strong chance to go blue, and while there's some distant long-shot but unlikely hope, the fact that McConnell and Graham dominated their races is telling that the pollsters were very out of touch. Unless they just wanted to raise more money and commotion knowing it had no-chance. I feel like they spent more time telling me about Amy McGrath then telling the people of Kentucky about her.
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Re: OT Election Thread 

Post#555 » by PlayerUp » Fri Nov 6, 2020 4:34 pm

Would not shock me if Trump tries to run again in 2024.
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Re: OT Election Thread 

Post#556 » by MrFortune3 » Fri Nov 6, 2020 4:44 pm

PlayerUp wrote:Another popular potential GOP candidate of the future.

Candace Owens


Not likely. The backlash to her candidacy would be more harmful than good for the GOP.
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Re: OT Election Thread 

Post#557 » by MrSparkle » Fri Nov 6, 2020 4:51 pm

Dresden wrote:
MrSparkle wrote:
TheStig wrote:The problem with Bernie and AOC is that they lean into socialism too much. The branding is horrible for most americans. The ideas are interesting but the marketing and scope is bad. The green new deal is huge! Has no chance. And then they want student loans forgiven, free colleges, medicare for all, taxes up to like 80%. Even as someone who leans progressive it's crazy. They need to focus on medicare for all and be willing to settle for a real public option for all with subsidies, free community college for all, additional green incentives. Medicare at a lower age. Their position is just impossible.


Yeah, and I support progressive change but most of these ideas would (maybe) start in the House and die in the Senate anyway, even if president Bernie or AOC tried to demand them.

The appeal of Yang (which apparently wasn’t enough) was just bringing to light practical issues that most people can agree in. Rank-based voting, addressing the opioid crisis, ways of regulating or pressuring big tech, energy sectors and job creation in rural America, UBI which would immensely help small-business and start-up workers who don’t make a corporate salary.

What I like about UBI is it’s an economic/circulation concept, not a form of welfare. Atleast I’d like to see it tried (in a small amount), sooner than promising free-everything while jacking taxes which would probably affect 80% of the population (not just the 1%).


The thing is most of those progressive ideas you mentioned could have broad public support once the details are explained. Most already favor a universal health care system. I don't know the current polling on the other topics, but there are a lot of people concerned with climate change, and if we could get on a path towards reducing emissions, while at the same time making an investment that would create more jobs, it's a win-win.

College debt is just crushing a lot of young people- some form of reduction in debt is needed, and would be popular. Free college- if it can be paid for without increasing the debt (like taking money from the military, for instance, or taxing the stock market), a lot of people would benefit, so I think it too, could be a popular idea, if it was framed in the right way. And it probably would not be completely free, just lower cost for a lot of people, and maybe free to those who really need it.


I hear ya. Problem is in my conversations with people, seems like me and my older millennial generation got the most screwed by the "the bigger the investment in college the bigger the return!" message of the 90s-00s. And frankly, I don't think that age group is a majority of the current voting population. Big chunk, but not a majority. Most kids I've tutored and taught the last 10 years, even from the affluent families, they got the smart message of "do your Gen Eds cheap, go to a state-school." They've ended up with job-ready degrees with 30k of debt instead of 150k+ for a degree in creative writing or painting (hey like me and my BM). People who graduated Ivy League schools up to about 1995, sure they had debts but I bet they paid them off with the way the economy was running and with how much cheaper tuition and living costs were. Come 2000-2010, the costs all-around (from tuition to campus housing to health insurance) just ballooned astronomically, where you're sending kids to undergrad for the price of a condo in Lakeview. And then on top of the absurdity, the college loans have higher interest rates than mortgages and auto loans.

The reality is that college in general became a corporate racket, disguised as a non-for-profit educational system. Coronavirus was probably nature's way of punishing these giant schools who spent their jacked tuition income on things like pool houses and bigger entertainment centrums.

I fell for that kool-aid as an 18yo. The right thing to do would be for the government/lenders to make it right, but at the same time, bunch of people defaulted and foreclosed in the housing crisis, and nobody ever really got recouped for that besides the banks that got the bail-outs, who were guilty of bubble lending to begin with. So unfortunately, I expect schools just to get big bail-outs and then continue raising tuitions to cover their losses.

IMO it all started with predatory lending, and this country has no history of "making right" with that. Sure, they essentially made it impossible to get a housing loan between 2008-2012, but it looks like we're right back where we were 12 years ago with this current real estate boom. In the midst of the largest economic halt in modern history with putrid job number forecasts, and we have houses selling like hotcakes. Who do you blame if it tips again, the lenders or the buyers? It's tough because there will be a lot of people who did keep their job and benefitted, and there will be those that lost their job and couldn't make it work.

It's just tough compromising and fixing these situations, especially if you put it in split voters' hands. But I agree, if they can frame loan reduction perhaps as "massive student loan refinancing" (but really roll out a plan to heavily regulate the student loan business, and reduce/forgive preposterous loans for many victims), without Tucker Carlson spamming about it on prime-time television, just maybe it has a shot.
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Re: OT Election Thread 

Post#558 » by MrSparkle » Fri Nov 6, 2020 5:19 pm

MrFortune3 wrote:
PlayerUp wrote:Another popular potential GOP candidate of the future.

Candace Owens


Not likely. The backlash to her candidacy would be more harmful than good for the GOP.


I've seen her talk/debate a few times. She'd get eaten alive IMO.

One thing I'll hand to Trump - there is no one else on this planet who could've made it to the White House *AND* gotten the support of his party's moderates with such an apparent lack of political and diplomatic knowledge.

He is the epitome of an "anecdotal" evidence kind of guy. He's a CEO villain out of an 80s action film (thinking the C-suite board from Robocop). I think by having all this experience with his cooky real estate and entrepreneurial ventures in NYC and around the world, he DOES have a lot of anecdotal evidence, and in a way, can probably relate to anybody in a 1-on-1. I bet he's actually an enjoyable guy in-person, for small doses (so long you're not arguing with him). I think that's the only reason why Republicans turned 180 after the primaries.
Meanwhile, anybody not on his side, they call him out for his BS. He's even made Boris Johnson roll his eyes; ya could've claimed their long-lost brothers until it turned out Boris does have a pulse on reality. Trump is without a doubt one of the least "educated" POTUS ever. I suppose Andrew Jackson or Ulysses Grant compare, but it's hard to compare pre-20th century presidents when they were basically chopping wood before joining the army. :lol:

My point is that Trump was a "best-case" type of candidate in my book for the populist GOP regime. The Red Block is not getting behind a Candace Owens - she doesn't tick enough boxes, and with zero actual career/political experience besides blogging, what's the point? Trump has actually been squaring off with politicians since the 80s, always trying to get his casinos and hotels to bypass regulations and zoning rules. I think this whole presidential race was a culmination of 40 years of angst that he relished in.

I realize Ivanka and Eric Trump are there and waiting. But man... Even W Bush had some serious credentials, despite also being a terrible president. I do think and hope that Trump was a kind of anomaly.
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Re: OT Election Thread 

Post#559 » by MrFortune3 » Fri Nov 6, 2020 5:24 pm

MrSparkle wrote:
MrFortune3 wrote:
PlayerUp wrote:Another popular potential GOP candidate of the future.

Candace Owens


Not likely. The backlash to her candidacy would be more harmful than good for the GOP.


I've seen her talk/debate a few times. She'd get eaten alive IMO.

One thing I'll hand to Trump - there is no one else on this planet who could've made it to the White House *AND* gotten the support of his party's moderates with such an apparent lack of political and diplomatic knowledge.

He is the epitome of an "anecdotal" evidence kind of guy. He's a CEO villain out of an 80s action film (thinking the C-suite board from Robocop). I think by having all this experience with his cooky real estate and entrepreneurial ventures in NYC and around the world, he DOES have a lot of anecdotal evidence, and in a way, can probably relate to anybody in a 1-on-1. I bet he's actually an enjoyable guy in-person, for small doses (so long you're not arguing with him). I think that's the only reason why Republicans turned 180 after the primaries.
Meanwhile, anybody not on his side, they call him out for his BS. He's even made Boris Johnson roll his eyes; ya could've claimed their long-lost brothers until it turned out Boris does have a pulse on reality. Trump is without a doubt one of the least "educated" POTUS ever. I suppose Andrew Jackson or Ulysses Grant compare, but it's hard to compare pre-20th century presidents when they were basically chopping wood before joining the army. :lol:

My point is that Trump was a "best-case" type of candidate in my book for the populist GOP regime. The Red Block is not getting behind a Candace Owens, Sarah Palin, etc. However, unfortunately for all of us, Ivanka and Eric Trump are there and waiting.


She will get destroyed in a debate setting. Absolutely annihilated. Most voters would never take her seriously either.
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Re: OT Election Thread 

Post#560 » by Chi town » Fri Nov 6, 2020 5:25 pm

PlayerUp wrote:Another popular potential GOP candidate of the future.

Candace Owens


Throw in Ben Shapiro too while you’re at it.

Both need to hold some type of office first. Don’t think they will though. Both great debaters not leaders.

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