Knightro wrote:pepe1991 wrote:MagicMatic wrote:Pepe makes it sound like players didn’t get into the nba via draft.
Yes, because that's for a young player only way how he can even get to nba.
But there is difference between using lottery as only path toward "saving" team and adding talent, and using nba draft as pool where you can add valuable, or in some cases superstar -type players.
For every first overall pick Lebron and Anthony Davis there is Bennett, Bargnani, Wiggins, Bogut, Kenyon Martin.
For every second overall pick like Durant there is Thabeet, Beasley, MKG, Turner, Derrick Williams.
Reality of drafting is that it's constant cycle of trial and errors. Teams take young players, give them time, most of them fail, they try new guys and cycle keeps going.
https://threesandlayups.com/2019/05/15/how-likely-is-each-draft-pick-to-someday-make-an-all-star-team/article goes in depth how drafting allstar is more luck than anything else. Also this odds are much worst if you know what "drafting allstar means". It means drafting player who at some point made single allstar apperance. There is army of average players who did it, but who are not really stars let alone superstars. Tyson Chandler, who was complete bust for first 10 years of his career, as former 2# pick also inflates " allstar in high lottery" . Over a years guys like Korver, Horford,Wally Szczerbiak. Noah, Hibbert...
From the very article you cite...
No. 1 pick 64% likely to be an all-star.
Top 5 pick 30% likely to be an all-star.
First rounder outside the lotto 8% likely.
Tanking may not work as well as you want it to work overall, but the numbers are what they are.
The higher you draft, the more likely you are to find all-star talent.
That's why i said that it's IMPOSSIBLE TO PLOT YOUR WAY TO 1# PICK because it's based lottery luck and in same time 4th picks only have 35% chance to turn in allstars.
Also i pointed out what allstar in article means. IT does NOT mean transending star, it means player who played at lest ONE ALLSTAR GAME.
So guy like Tyson Chandler, who was complete BUST as 2# pick, still fits this category of "allstar" despite not being anything close to a star player, especially for a team that drafted him.
This list also includes guys like Kenyon Martin, former 1# pick who is career 12 ppg player but had one allstar game and still fits this fundamentally flawed, but telling list.
Further more , Yao Ming was allstar in every year he played because how allstars are being named. China voted ment he always was voted in, even in year when he averaged 13 ppg he was allstar- starter. Even more currupting 64% first overall pick- allstar chance.
If you play with google and find some articles about probability of drafting Hall of fame player in lottery, things get dicey. On sameple size of 1950- 1995 , this are results:
Now let's see, in co-relation with tanking ( before drafting reform, so now is actually harder, but let's give it benefit of a doubt)
what is probablity to draft player AND win championship with him.
And this is main issue with on-nose tanking. IT has such a low sucess rate to the point where doing almost no reubilding, historiclly, gets you same chance of winning championship as doing complete rebuilding does. If i want to nitpick, i would say doing full rebuild is by far most unsuccessful strategy any GM can implement.
As far as " evaluation of talent takes years" according to half of the board there is something very interesting, that goes against what most people here belive
According to Alexander C. Greene, who did 86 pages long study on matemathics and statictics on topic "The Success of NBA Draft Picks: Can College Careers Predict NBA Winners? " he comes across this conclusion:
The ability to predict the rest of a player’s career based on their rookie season statistics
has been proven by this study. Variables such as draft position, games, and personal fouls are
significant across all three analyses. Draft position had been shown to be significant in
predicting playing time in previous studies, and we have also shown that it is effective in
predicting productivity on the court as well. It can be argued that games and personal fouls are
closely tied, since a player who is playing more games will accumulate more personal fouls,
just by being out on the court.
Rookie PER is also tied closely with Career PER, indicating that you can fairly well
determine a player’s performance for his career after one season.
Once again, there is HUGE difference between Tyson Chandler being allstar as 2# pick and Kevin Durant being allstar ,also being former 2# pick. Or Kenyon Martin and Lebron James.
To play in reverse logic, why Magic need to rebuild if they already have their allstar Vučević? He is allstar! ::lol:
Same goes to flawed logic most of allstars are lottery picks. No ****, 14 out of 30 first round picks are actually lottery picks. Half of second round picks don't even play more than 2 nba seasons. Almost 10 players drafted in second round every year play less than 15 nba games in their careers. Witch means lottery picks make over 1/3 of all players signed in new nba season every year.
You can't even enter nba without being drafted. Have to be undrafted first. Than signed.
It's laughable to even entertain this stupidity. This does not even take in account difference in opportunities between lottery selected players and non lottery picks mostly due level of investment in that pick.
HOWEVER, chances of drafting TOP 15 player AND being competitive during his best years are soooo damn slim.
And all this still does not make one thing factual- 2020 draft sucks. That's why top 2 picks are being shopped around. Without that fact we would not even be in this debate.
Life is what happens when you're busy making other plans. -John Lennon
