NBA 2020 Draft Prospects Thread

[Catchall]

I don't think those are safe comparisons. Jaylen Brown had great pedigree and was considered like... top 3 type of prospect before college. Okoro was never that. Brown was a high pedigree and high usage player with mediocre efficiency. Okoro is low usage player with mediocre efficiency. It's much harder for the latter to improve into what Brown has become. Also... I'm not sure making that bet (even with Brown type of prospect) repeatedly will give you good results in the long run. You better have a real good reason as to why you think Okoro can get to Brown type of player. I don't really see it with him from the little I've seen of him.

If you want an old-school comp for Isaac Okoro, it might be Mario Elie, who played for the Rockets and the Spurs. That said, I like Okoro's upside.

So... I've been looking into some of those guys last week or so... Can anybody tell me why is Okoro considered a better prospect than Patrick Williams?

He may not be. But Okoro is an explosive downhill athlete and maybe a more versatile defender than Williams. Jury's still out.

[stitches]

If you want an old-school comp for Isaac Okoro, it might be Mario Elie, who played for the Rockets and the Spurs. That said, I like Okoro's upside.

So... I've been looking into some of those guys last week or so... Can anybody tell me why is Okoro considered a better prospect than Patrick Williams?

He may not be. But Okoro is an explosive downhill athlete and maybe a more versatile defender than Williams. Jury's still out.

Here's a comp for Okoro... Justin Anderson. Except... at least Justin Anderson had that one year where he actually shot well.

[Catchall]

At #23, here are the wing prospects:

Josh Green
Robert Woodard
Tyler Bey
Leandro Bomaro
Desmond Bane
Jalen McDaniels
Elijah Hughes
Cassious Stanley

Of the players on that list, I would take Josh Green and be thankful.

[KqWIN]

So... I've been looking into some of those guys last week or so... Can anybody tell me why is Okoro considered a better prospect than Patrick Williams?

He may not be. But Okoro is an explosive downhill athlete and maybe a more versatile defender than Williams. Jury's still out.

Here's a comp for Okoro... Justin Anderson. Except... at least Justin Anderson had that one year where he actually shot well.

Offensively, the thing Okoro has going for him is that he is very good at attacking the basket. 61% of his shots come at the rime (which is crazy for a wing prospect), he's shooting 68% there, only 31% of his rim FGs assisted, and his FTr is very high.

On the other hand, that is all of his scoring game. Non existent mid range game and a bad three point shooter. So if we're projecting this guy as a wing, what happens to his offense when he inevitably has to score in other ways besides the basket?

[KqWIN]

At #23, here are the wing prospects:

Josh Green
Robert Woodard
Tyler Bey
Leandro Bomaro
Desmond Bane
Jalen McDaniels
Elijah Hughes
Cassious Stanley

Of the players on that list, I would take Josh Green and be thankful.

I'm with you. Hoping for Pouk or Greene to be there at #23.

[stitches]

Why would Pokusevski fall to 23? Also... what position do you guys think he will play in the league?

[KqWIN]

Why would Pokushevski fall to 23? Also... what position do you guys think he will play in the league?

I think he plays offense like a wing and on defense he can guard no one...but will be a strong team defender.

Probably goes lottery. He should in this draft for sure.

[stitches]

Why would Pokushevski fall to 23? Also... what position do you guys think he will play in the league?

I think he plays offense like a wing and on defense he can guard no one...but will be a strong team defender.

Probably goes lottery. He should in this draft for sure.

yep, I was thinking the same. I think he's definitely worth the risk. I actually think I like him better than all of those guys we are discussing on the wing. Green, Okoro, Bane, Williams... His biggest weakness is... his strength/weight. If he falls I'd draft him and get him in the weight room with Rudy to show him how to develop his body from a "skinny giraffe" phase to Sagat incarnate.

Now you would have to have some idea about his determination and willingness to work on his body, but IMO this has always been a blind spot for NBA teams. 18 year olds(yes, I just checked his age... he's still just 18!!! and he will be 18 when the season starts too) who've never seen a weight room are the easiest prospects to make a huge jump in that specific deficiency in their profile. Literally all it takes is them being willing to work. It doesn't need to happen over night either. He can continually build his body over several years and be a beast not just skill-wise(which he is), but also overall. I think he's my favorite prospect from the ones I've looked into so far.

We can draft him and develop him year 1(can even red-shirt him probably) and let him focus specifically on developing his strength. Then when he's ready to play I wouldn't mind him next to Rudy. I actually think they can be a sneaky good combo with great help defense and rim protection. And on offense they are a perfect complement to eachother...

[KqWIN]

Why would Pokushevski fall to 23? Also... what position do you guys think he will play in the league?

I think he plays offense like a wing and on defense he can guard no one...but will be a strong team defender.

Probably goes lottery. He should in this draft for sure.

yep, I was thinking the same. I think he's definitely worth the risk. I actually think I like him better than all of those guys we are discussing on the wing. Green, Okoro, Bane, Williams... His biggest weakness is... his strength/weight. If he falls I'd draft him and get him in the weight room with Rudy to show him how to develop his body from a "skinny giraffe" phase to Sagat incarnate.

Now you would have to have some idea about his determination and willingness to work on his body, but IMO this has always been a blind spot for NBA teams. 18 year olds(yes, I just checked his age... he's still just 18!!! and he will be 18 when the season starts too) who've never seen a weight room are the easiest prospects to make a huge jump in that specific deficiency in their profile. Literally all it takes is them being willing to work. It doesn't need to happen over night either. He can continually build his body over several years and be a beast not just skill-wise(which he is), but also overall. I think he's my favorite prospect from the ones I've looked into so far.

We can draft him and develop him year 1(can even red-shirt him probably) and let him focus specifically on developing his strength. Then when he's ready to play I wouldn't mind him next to Rudy. I actually think they can be a sneaky good combo with great help defense and rim protection. And on offense they are a perfect complement to eachother...

I'm just a little cautious on him because I don't have a grasp of the talent he's playing against. If you like Poku, you should probably like Jaden McDaniels for a lot of the same reasons but I'm not a huge fan of him. I have a hard time seeing McDaniels being a playable NBA player, and if you're not playable as a rookie, you're probably not going to reach a high ceiling because you're too far behind.

Very rarely does a McDaniels type pop at our stage of the draft. Maybe we should feel the same about Poku if we don't believe he can be an NBA player right away?

[stitches]

I'm just a little cautious on him because I don't have a grasp of the talent he's playing against. If you like Poku, you should probably like Jaden McDaniels for a lot of the same reasons but I'm not a huge fan of him. I have a hard time seeing McDaniels being a playable NBA player, and if you're not playable as a rookie, you're probably not going to reach a high ceiling because you're too far behind.

Very rarely does a McDaniels type pop at our stage of the draft. Maybe we should feel the same about Poku if we don't believe he can be an NBA player right away?

Haven't watched McDaniels, might make him my next research project. I personally am not a fan of putting big value on a prospects' rookie year. Even the playable ones are mostly not good and not winning players. The biggest value of those players is usually in years 3-4 of their rookie contract and then years 5-9 if they actually turn into a star. I care very little about what a player is early in his career. I'm not drafting players for their year 1. I'm drafting them hopefully for the 10 years after.

Also, I want to point out that pre-draft determination of just how ready a player will be is a bit shaky. There have been tons of examples where supposedly raw players actually are able to contribute and vice versa - of players that were supposed to be ready to play, not being able to get any minutes. Also -remember the 2013 draft which IMO is similar to this year's draft. The two biggest hits of that draft were Gobert and Gainnis. Both of them were considered incredibly raw. Rudy spent most of the year in the D-League. Giannis was a flashing machine but efficiency-wise he was bad... they just needed the time to develop their bodies and get into the groove of the NBA play and physicality. I don't think them not being ready early is that much of a negative... especially when the alternative is what? Okoro? Haliburton? Bane? Bey? Yeah... I'd take my chance with Pokusevski instead.

Them not being ready to play right away might be a problem development-wise if they are 23. I don't think it's a problem for literally the youngest player to ever be drafted(if I'm not mistaken?)...

Just draft the player who you like most in the long-run. Even if you think another player X will be better year 1. It's silly to draft him for what will likely be his worst year. Rookies are mostly trash, and even the playable ones are not winning players.

[Catchall]

Why would Pokusevski fall to 23? Also... what position do you guys think he will play in the league?

Because teams don't want to wait on developing him for a year or two, same as Nic Claxton, Anzejs Pacesnik, Rudy Gobert and Andrei Kirilenko. Poku will still be 18 when the season starts and he's not yet physically ready for the league.

He'll be a 4 like Dragan Bender, Thon Maker and Kristaps Porzingis, except that I like him better than those guys.

It's difficult for a team to pass on guys like Tyrese Maxey, Saddiq Bey, Aaron Nesmith, RJ Hampton, etc. etc. for a guy who won't play this year or maybe next year either.

[Catchall]

These guys are all but certain to go in the top 10 of this draft: Edwards, Wiseman, Ball, Avdija, Okongwu, Hayes, Toppin, Haliburton, Okoro, Williams

All but certain to be gone by #20: Vassell, Nesmith, S. Bey, Lewis Jr., Hampton, Maxey, Terry, Achiuwa.

That means at least 2 of these 6 guys will be available at #23: Anthony, Green, J. Smith, McDaniels, Bane, Pokusevski.

If I'm Brooklyn, I need to win now, and I've already got Nicolas Claxton developing. (That's why I think their pick is available.)

If I'm Miami or Philly, I'm going to be tempted by guards who can shoot like Cole Anthony, Tyrell Terry and Desmond Bane. This draft is actually pretty deep for guard talent.

If I'm Denver, I'm going to be tempted by McDaniels and Green because I'm already pretty committed to Michael Porter Jr. and I'm developing Bol Bol. My defense is bottom-tier, I have plenty of shooters, and I could add Green as a 3D wing to upgrade from Harris. I could also take Jaden McDaniels and have him replace Will Barton and/or Jerami Grant who is a FA.

If Boston doesn't take Poku at #14, I could see him drop a bit.

[Catchall]

Why would Pokushevski fall to 23? Also... what position do you guys think he will play in the league?

I think he plays offense like a wing and on defense he can guard no one...but will be a strong team defender.

Probably goes lottery. He should in this draft for sure.

yep, I was thinking the same. I think he's definitely worth the risk. I actually think I like him better than all of those guys we are discussing on the wing. Green, Okoro, Bane, Williams... His biggest weakness is... his strength/weight. If he falls I'd draft him and get him in the weight room with Rudy to show him how to develop his body from a "skinny giraffe" phase to Sagat incarnate.

Now you would have to have some idea about his determination and willingness to work on his body, but IMO this has always been a blind spot for NBA teams. 18 year olds(yes, I just checked his age... he's still just 18!!! and he will be 18 when the season starts too) who've never seen a weight room are the easiest prospects to make a huge jump in that specific deficiency in their profile. Literally all it takes is them being willing to work. It doesn't need to happen over night either. He can continually build his body over several years and be a beast not just skill-wise(which he is), but also overall. I think he's my favorite prospect from the ones I've looked into so far.

We can draft him and develop him year 1(can even red-shirt him probably) and let him focus specifically on developing his strength. Then when he's ready to play I wouldn't mind him next to Rudy. I actually think they can be a sneaky good combo with great help defense and rim protection. And on offense they are a perfect complement to eachother...

Poku is like Keith Van Horn entering the Univ. of Utah as a freshman. He's that young. In fact, he's younger than a number of guys who will be one-and-dones in next year's draft.

[SoCalJazzFan]

Why would Pokushevski fall to 23? Also... what position do you guys think he will play in the league?

I think he plays offense like a wing and on defense he can guard no one...but will be a strong team defender.

Probably goes lottery. He should in this draft for sure.

What makes me nervous is that he comes across defensively, to me, as an emaciated Kanter. Not a good one on one defender and gets lost on team defense too.

[KqWIN]

Why would Pokushevski fall to 23? Also... what position do you guys think he will play in the league?

I think he plays offense like a wing and on defense he can guard no one...but will be a strong team defender.

Probably goes lottery. He should in this draft for sure.

What makes me nervous is that he comes across defensively, to me, as an emaciated Kanter. Not a good one on one defender and gets lost on team defense too.

Poku has very high steal and block rate. Obviously there’s more to defense than that, but there’s a ton of value to being a defensive playmaker. STOCKS are some of the best indicators for prospects. I think Poku’s great length, agility, and bbiq are reflected in these numbers.

I don’t think he will guard guys well on ball or get through screens...but IMO the most important aspect to defense is covering space off the ball and I think he can be exceptional in that fashion.

[KqWIN]

I'm just a little cautious on him because I don't have a grasp of the talent he's playing against. If you like Poku, you should probably like Jaden McDaniels for a lot of the same reasons but I'm not a huge fan of him. I have a hard time seeing McDaniels being a playable NBA player, and if you're not playable as a rookie, you're probably not going to reach a high ceiling because you're too far behind.

Very rarely does a McDaniels type pop at our stage of the draft. Maybe we should feel the same about Poku if we don't believe he can be an NBA player right away?

Haven't watched McDaniels, might make him my next research project. I personally am not a fan of putting big value on a prospects' rookie year. Even the playable ones are mostly not good and not winning players. The biggest value of those players is usually in years 3-4 of their rookie contract and then years 5-9 if they actually turn into a star. I care very little about what a player is early in his career. I'm not drafting players for their year 1. I'm drafting them hopefully for the 10 years after.

Also, I want to point out that pre-draft determination of just how ready a player will be is a bit shaky. There have been tons of examples where supposedly raw players actually are able to contribute and vice versa - of players that were supposed to be ready to play, not being able to get any minutes. Also -remember the 2013 draft which IMO is similar to this year's draft. The two biggest hits of that draft were Gobert and Gainnis. Both of them were considered incredibly raw. Rudy spent most of the year in the D-League. Giannis was a flashing machine but efficiency-wise he was bad... they just needed the time to develop their bodies and get into the groove of the NBA play and physicality. I don't think them not being ready early is that much of a negative... especially when the alternative is what? Okoro? Haliburton? Bane? Bey? Yeah... I'd take my chance with Pokusevski instead.

Them not being ready to play right away might be a problem development-wise if they are 23. I don't think it's a problem for literally the youngest player to ever be drafted(if I'm not mistaken?)...

Just draft the player who you like most in the long-run. Even if you think another player X will be better year 1. It's silly to draft him for what will likely be his worst year. Rookies are mostly trash, and even the playable ones are not winning players.

I'm coming around to the belief that ceilings and floors don't really exist, and if they do, we can't predict them. Like you said, there are a lot of guys who are supposed to be ready to play and can't. There are also a ton of "low potential" players that also turn out to be the steals. We have this idea that McDaniels type of prospect has high potential....but how many players like him at this draft range or lower have really popped? Pretty much no one, the closest is Tobias Harris...but I wouldn't consider them to be similar players although they are similar in pedigree.

Who are the actual steals? For C's high pedigree and/or have exceptional physical attributes seem to be good indicators. Gobert, Whiteside, D. Jordan, M. Robinson, Wood, Capela ect. Not a bad way to go.

Outside of C, a lot of the steals were steals because people thought they had low potential for whatever reason:

Butler
Lowry
Dr. Green
Brogdon
Millsap
Middleton

What I'm getting at is that potential isn't always the teenage myplayer who you think could shoot to the moon. Potential could just as easily be the guy who's too short, not athletic, fat, or older than everyone else. The best players almost always show it early on that they can be some kind of player in this league. If not the first season, soon after that.

[babyjax13]

I think a lot of Poku's skills won't really translate. Nice passer, can probably be an average three point shooter...but the thing that people seem to be excited about is his ability to put the ball on the court, take advantage of mismatches, etc. I just don't see him being able to do that in the NBA. I see Thon Maker with the passing of Mason Plumlee - nice player, not a star, but certainly a guy you'd like. So, yah, I guess I don't see a super high ceiling, but unlike a lot of people I think he's got a safe floor.

[stitches]

Givony and Schmitz are saying saying Ball is almost certain to go no. 1? I'm a bit baffled by that? Is this new? Or has it been known for a while? Is it a smokescreen?

[AingesBurner]

Givony and Schmitz are saying saying Ball is almost certain to go no. 1? I'm a bit baffled by that? Is this new? Or has it been known for a while? Is it a smokescreen?

I think he goes #1 but man picking him feels like picking Dante Exum.

[SoCalJazzFan]

Going back to the rumor of the Jazz acquiring the Hawks pick, what if instead of Williams it is Haliburton they are targeting? He and Mitchell could form a nice backcourt.