As to who my third pick will be this round, I’m not sure; there are 3-4 guys whose names are rolling around for that honour.
As to my top pick----considering who is already off the table, my criteria centered around longevity of quality [and also perhaps worth remembering I tend to value the rs more than many]---this spot comes down to two candidates: Mailman and Dirk. I’m hedging at present toward Malone [and I’ll try to explain why]....
Malone is often passed over for other candidates on the basis of his decline in the playoffs. It’s a fair criticism, particularly against someone like Dirk, who was fairly playoff resilient [especially late in his prime]. However, I sometimes feel as though that decline is overstated.
That is, I acknowledge his decline (and even that it was
proportionally larger than that seen from most superstars), but I also think he was still a pretty darn good player in the playoffs, and that the proportion of his decline only appears so large because of just how awesome and dominant he typically was during the regular season.
His shooting efficiency typically took a dip in the playoffs [occasionally a pretty substantial one]. On the other hand, his turnover economy in the playoffs during his prime was often BETTER than what it had been in the regular season.
By comparison, Dirk’s shooting efficiency basically didn’t decline at all [and his rebounding improved] in the playoffs…...but his turnover economy worsened.
I’ll demonstrate this by showing their production and efficiency numbers during their respective primes (‘89-’01 for Malone, ‘01-’14 for Dirk).
NOTE: While that 14-year span for Dirk is perhaps a little too extended, I went with that because it makes his prime basically the same length as Malone’s. Yes, it’s one more season than the span I’ve stipulated for Malone; but despite that (and despite the fact that the one hold-out year in Dirk’s prime [‘12] had 16 more games than the hold-out year in Malone’s prime [‘99]), Dirk still only played 31 additional games in this period than Malone did from ‘89-’01. This is because while Dirk missed 73 games in that span, Malone was of course a total iron-man, missing just 6 games in 13 years. And because Malone was also averaging marginally higher minutes, he still actually played 266 more minutes in his 13-year prime than Dirk did in this 14-year “prime” I’ve listed.
One could go with just ‘01-’12 for Dirk’s prime, and his numbers would look marginally better in doing so; but then one would also be forced to acknowledge that Dirk’s prime was substantially shorter [in terms of games/minutes played], too. Sort of six in one hand, half-dozen in the other, imo.
Anyway, let’s look at the comparison, starting with the regular season….
K.Malone (rs, ‘89-’01):
36.7 pts/100 poss @ 59.1% TS (+6.0% rTS), 14.2 reb/100 (16.4% TREB% (24.0% DREB%)), 5.0 ast/100, 4.1 tov/100, in 37.9 mpg. 8.69% mTOV%.
Avg Jazz offense: +3.64 rORTG
D.Nowitzki (rs, ‘01-’14):
33.7 pts/100 poss @ 58.5% TS (+5.3% rTS), 12.0 reb/100 (13.1% TREB% (22.4% DREB%)), 3.9 ast/100, 2.7 tov/100, in 36.6 mpg. 6.55% mTOV%
Avg Maverick offense: +3.98 rORTG
^^^^In the rs, Malone was scoring at higher volume on marginally better shooting efficiency, generating more assists, and rebounding at a higher rate. I also think he was [on average] the better defensive player between the two (though I’ll add more on that below in some scouting observations; this is meant mostly to be the statistical comparison).
The only things he is clearly inferior to Dirk in on the statistical comp is in his turnover economy. Dirk is more or less on the GOAT-tier of that among big-men. Is his better turnover economy enough to off-set being a lesser scorer, rebounder, and defender during the rs? (I realize it’s not quite that easy or “boiled down” of a question, as I do think Dirk generates a little more gravity, and he certainly is better able to spread the floor. Though I sort of feel Malone is a marginally better screen-setter, fwiw. But again I want to get to some of this later in scouting.) From a purely statistical point, no, I don’t think the better turnover economy is quite enough to off-set it.
In the playoffs, I mentioned Malone’s shooting efficiency falls off precipitously, but that his turnover economy actually improved in his prime. Here are his playoff numbers….
Karl Malone (ps, ‘89-’01):
35.3 pts/100 poss @ 53.2% TS (+0.1% rTS), 14.8 reb/100 (16.3% TREB% (24.2% DREB%)), 4.4 ast/100, 3.8 tov/100, in 41.4 mpg. 7.92% mTOV%.
Before I show Dirk’s, this is what I’m talking about: ^^^those are still REALLY substantial numbers (and note the the mild-moderately improved turnover economy). And this was while facing some pretty tough defenses much of the way. The average rDRTG he faced in the playoffs in his prime (for ease, weighted per series [not per game played]) was -2.39.
By comparison, the average one faced by Dirk in his prime was -2.18. Here is how Dirk did against those defenses:
D.Nowitzki (ps, ‘01-’14):
33.0 pts/100 poss @ 57.9% TS (+4.7% rTS), 13.1 reb/100 (14.2% TREB% (24.6% DREB%)), 3.3 ast/100, 3.0 tov/100, in 41.1 mpg. 7.51% mTOV%
Dirk’s shooting efficiency holds steady (and his rebounding goes up a little), but his turnover economy takes a somewhat notable dive…...to the point that Malone’s turnover economy in the playoffs is only
slightly worse. This is relevant given turnover economy was really the only advantage Dirk had on him in the rs figures.
Overall,
Malone’s playoff numbers are only a little worse than Dirk’s [despite facing marginally better defenses on average, and despite his playoff reputation].
I at least
hope that’s some food for thought.
In terms of impact, Dirk’s average RAPM over that span of seasons is +4.48.
Malone’s avg RAPM [which includes the playoffs] from ‘97-’01 is +4.11. His avg rs-only pseudo-APM from ‘94-’96 is +5.06.
As to what I see when I watch these guys…..
There’s no question Dirk was the better and more resilient isolation scorer, at least by later in his prime. That Dirk-patented one-legged fader…..impossible to stop, you just had to hope he’d miss. This at times created a little more gravitational effect, and because of his superior range, he spreads the floor more, too.
Because he operated so much in the mid-range, it tended to aid in the lower turnover economy I’ve referred to as well (though probably also contributed to his lower OREB%).
And he’s probably a marginally underrated passer.
Malone, however, is a clearly
better passer (and perhaps not close).
A common play run with some of the late-90s Jazz squads was the guard [Stockton or Hornacek] with ball on the wing would get the ball to Malone in the mid-post region, with everyone else cleared out toward the perimeter; then that guard would trot laterally toward the top of the key before [on the far side of the key] cutting toward the basket off the back-pick being set by the OTHER guard…...and if the defense wasn’t perfect, Malone would hit that cutter for a lay-up. By the latter half of his prime he was excellent [OUTSTANDING, even] at hitting cutters in general (see video below; actual passes start at 0:14 mark), and also fantastic passing out of double-teams.
As much as Garnett’s passing had been lauded in prior threads, I don’t think he was any better [or even
as good???] as late-prime Karl Malone.
As I believe 70sFan had alluded to, I think that’s a big part of why/how the Jazz of the late 90s managed some fantastically elite rORTG’s (relative to their opponents) in the post-season, despite Malone's lower than standard shooting efficiency in the playoffs.
As to scoring, he didn’t have Dirk’s unstoppable go-to move, but he was able to score in a variety of ways: rim-running, face-up shooting, occasional “simple” forays at the rim from a face-up or a post-up [often looking to just draw contact] where he finished pretty well (from ‘97-’01 Malone was finishing >66% at the rim [vs 64.1% for prime Dirk]). And of course there was transition scoring, which Malone was probably the best big-man at that until Giannis came along.
And while Malone didn’t quite have Dirk’s mid-range prowess, he was a very capable mid-range shooter by at least ‘94 (off the pnp, or facing up): his % from 16-23’ in ‘97-’01 is actually almost spot-on with prime Dirk, believe it or not,
at >47%. His % from 10-16’ lags about 7-8% behind Dirk, though.
And Malone had a higher FTAr (bearing in mind he played in an era of worse spacing, too). Also a larger presence on the offensive glass, as alluded to above.
Both are good screen-setters, imo; gun to my head, I maybe give Malone the edge.
Defensively, BOTH players are box-out guys (as opposed to purely hunting [and potentially cannibalizing] rebounds)......but Malone’s defensive rebounding rates are a little better (as noted above), at least in the regular season.
Dirk’s positioning on pnr defense [at least by the latter half of his prime] is excellent, and consequently he hedges REALLY well; by late in his prime he was pretty slow on the recover part of “hedge and recover”, though.
He’s got good length, so his post defense wasn’t bad, though he wasn’t really what I’d call a “banger”.
Malone, otoh, could bang in the post. I mean….
No one is pushing that around. He could bang with the bigger PF’s, or occasionally defend centers in the post.
I’d rate his lateral mobility as marginally better than Dirk’s. I think because he’s so huge [see photo] it would give the impression of “clunky” movement…..but he was quite mobile.
He also had very quick and active hands, which is how he came to be 12th all-time in steals (and 2nd to only Hakeem among PF/C’s). I mean, he actually still has more steals than Lebron James at this point, if you can believe that. He’s 16th all-time in career playoff steals, btw (
1st among PF/C’s).
And he was the master at “pulling the chair” in the post.
I don’t want to give the impression that he was consistently an All-D level defensive PF, but he was pretty good thru much of his career. All things considered, I think he was the better defensive player [compared to Dirk].
And given his effective longevity [due to lack of injury-missed time] is slightly superior…..
1st vote: Karl Malone
2nd vote: Dirk Nowitzki
3rd vote: ????? I don’t know. I’m floating Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, and David Robinson for that spot. To make sure I have a counted vote, I think I need to come to a decision between West and Oscar. I guess I’ll say West, though am willing to be convinced otherwise."The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
Oh, yeah, West missed the entire postseason while Wilt led the team past a stronger Bulls team than West had ever beaten on his own...
