2020 NBA Draft Thread, Part 2 -- (8PM, Wed, Nov. 18, ESPN)

[threrf23]

I could not find another good NBA defender whose NCAA steal <1 and blk <1.

First of all, ideally, always take foul efficiency into the equation. The best defenders are able to be active without fouling, if you analyze defensive activity to foul efficiency, you get something of a measure of a player's agility and instincts and smarts. (I also tend to look at per-40 stats from a player's freshman year).

Second, the legendary Semi Ojeleye averaged only 0.4 steals and 0.4 blocks per game (0.5 a piece per 40) as the equivalent of a senior at SMU. Are you saying that Semi Ojeleye is not a good NBA defender?

(in fairness to Semi, he only averaged 2.1 fouls per 40)

On a more serious note, Jimmy Butler as a junior averaged 1.4 steals per and 0.4 blocks - beats your threshold but not by that much.

(he also only averaged 1.3 fouls per game, his foul efficiency relative to defensive activity was possibly legendary, and is something that almost everyone likely overlooked.....Ty Haliburton also excels in this capacity)

Of course, there is more to defense than steals and blocks, box score stats speak more to a player's defensive potential than impact. By all accounts Bey is not especially talented, but he comes across as a character guy who is likely to reach his ceiling.

As a freshman per 40, Bey posted 1.2 steals, 0.5 blocks, 2.9 fouls. This isn't impressive, but passable. I'll just copy and paste this comparison list I compiled in an old Jaylen Brown thread (fouls/steals/blocks per 40).

18 y/o Paul Pierce: 3.8/2.0/1.3
19 y/o Paul Pierce: 3.9/2.4/1.1
18 y/o Carmelo: 2.4/1.7/0.9
19 y/o Jimmy Butler: 3.8/1.5/1
21 y/o Jimmy Butler: 1.5/1.7/0.4
18 y/o Demarre Carroll: 4.1/1.5/0.2
19 y/o Demarre Carroll: 3.7/1.7/0.5
18 y/o Kawhi: 3.2/1.8/0.9
19 y/o Kawhi: 3/1.7/0.7
18 y/o K Middleton: 4.5/1.6/0.6
19 y/o K Middleton: 2.9/1.6/0.1
18 y/o Winslow: 3.8/1.8/1.2
18 y/o Stanley J: 3.7/2.1/0.6
18 y/o James Young: 2.6/0.9/0.2
19 y/o Le'Bryan Nash: 3.8/0.8/0.6
19 y/o Anthony Bennett: 3.4/1/1.8
18 y/o Wiggins: 3.3/1.4/1.2
20 y/o Crowder: 3.3/1.9/1.3
21 y/o Crowder: 3.2/3.1/1.2
18 y/o Jeff Green: 3.4/1.1/1.9
19 y/o Jeff Green: 2.6/1.2/1.2
18 y/o H. Barnes: 2.6/1.0/0.6
19 y/o H. Barnes: 2.4/1.5/0.5

[playa-hater]

Now people are talking about I Stewart. Before that is was Nnaji, before that is was D Oturu.

So if second tier centers mean players not commonly picked in the lottery (1-14) who would be your top choice of these Centers at 26?? leaving out J Smith and Precious

1 - I Stewart
2 - Z Nnaji
3 - D Oturu
4 - V Carey
5 - X McDaniel

each one has different positives and negatives.. but we can only draft one..

I'll use the time machine to select Xavier McDaniel.

[SmartWentCrazy]

I could not find another good NBA defender whose NCAA steal <1 and blk <1.

First of all, ideally, always take foul efficiency into the equation. The best defenders are able to be active without fouling, if you analyze defensive activity to foul efficiency, you get something of a measure of a player's agility and instincts and smarts. (I also tend to look at per-40 stats from a player's freshman year).

Second, the legendary Semi Ojeleye averaged only 0.4 steals and 0.4 blocks per game (0.5 a piece per 40) as the equivalent of a senior at SMU. Are you saying that Semi Ojeleye is not a good NBA defender?

(in fairness to Semi, he only averaged 2.1 fouls per 40)

On a more serious note, Jimmy Butler as a junior averaged 1.4 steals per and 0.4 blocks - beats your threshold but not by that much.

(he also only averaged 1.3 fouls per game, his foul efficiency relative to defensive activity was possibly legendary, and is something that almost everyone likely overlooked.....Ty Haliburton also excels in this capacity)

Of course, there is more to defense than steals and blocks, box score stats speak more to a player's defensive potential than impact. By all accounts Bey is not especially talented, but he comes across as a character guy who is likely to reach his ceiling.

As a freshman per 40, Bey posted 1.2 steals, 0.5 blocks, 2.9 fouls. This isn't impressive, but passable. I'll just copy and paste this comparison list I compiled in an old Jaylen Brown thread (fouls/steals/blocks per 40).

18 y/o Paul Pierce: 3.8/2.0/1.3
19 y/o Paul Pierce: 3.9/2.4/1.1
18 y/o Carmelo: 2.4/1.7/0.9
19 y/o Jimmy Butler: 3.8/1.5/1
21 y/o Jimmy Butler: 1.5/1.7/0.4
18 y/o Demarre Carroll: 4.1/1.5/0.2
19 y/o Demarre Carroll: 3.7/1.7/0.5
18 y/o Kawhi: 3.2/1.8/0.9
19 y/o Kawhi: 3/1.7/0.7
18 y/o K Middleton: 4.5/1.6/0.6
19 y/o K Middleton: 2.9/1.6/0.1
18 y/o Winslow: 3.8/1.8/1.2
18 y/o Stanley J: 3.7/2.1/0.6
18 y/o James Young: 2.6/0.9/0.2
19 y/o Le'Bryan Nash: 3.8/0.8/0.6
19 y/o Anthony Bennett: 3.4/1/1.8
18 y/o Wiggins: 3.3/1.4/1.2
20 y/o Crowder: 3.3/1.9/1.3
21 y/o Crowder: 3.2/3.1/1.2
18 y/o Jeff Green: 3.4/1.1/1.9
19 y/o Jeff Green: 2.6/1.2/1.2
18 y/o H. Barnes: 2.6/1.0/0.6
19 y/o H. Barnes: 2.4/1.5/0.5

Jaylen didnt do it. Hes obvi a good defender. Romeo didnt do it at IU and I think most would agree he’s a good NBA defender with a lot of potential on that end. Defense is weird and advanced stats arent that good— you just need to watch guys play to figure it out unfortunately.

[playa-hater]

Now people are talking about I Stewart. Before that is was Nnaji, before that is was D Oturu.

So if second tier centers mean players not commonly picked in the lottery (1-14) who would be your top choice of these Centers at 26?? leaving out J Smith and Precious

1 - I Stewart
2 - Z Nnaji
3 - D Oturu
4 - V Carey
5 - X McDaniel

each one has different positives and negatives.. but we can only draft one..

I'll use the time machine to select Xavier McDaniel.

1. Otaru
2. Paul Reed
3. Nnaji
4. Azabukie

5. V Carey, Tillman, stewart, Perry, all even.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

left out P Reed since most consider him more of a 4 man who can play some 5,

[Spin Move]

I could not find another good NBA defender whose NCAA steal <1 and blk <1.

First of all, ideally, always take foul efficiency into the equation. The best defenders are able to be active without fouling, if you analyze defensive activity to foul efficiency, you get something of a measure of a player's agility and instincts and smarts. (I also tend to look at per-40 stats from a player's freshman year).

Second, the legendary Semi Ojeleye averaged only 0.4 steals and 0.4 blocks per game (0.5 a piece per 40) as the equivalent of a senior at SMU. Are you saying that Semi Ojeleye is not a good NBA defender?

(in fairness to Semi, he only averaged 2.1 fouls per 40)

On a more serious note, Jimmy Butler as a junior averaged 1.4 steals per and 0.4 blocks - beats your threshold but not by that much.

(he also only averaged 1.3 fouls per game, his foul efficiency relative to defensive activity was possibly legendary, and is something that almost everyone likely overlooked.....Ty Haliburton also excels in this capacity)

Of course, there is more to defense than steals and blocks, box score stats speak more to a player's defensive potential than impact. By all accounts Bey is not especially talented, but he comes across as a character guy who is likely to reach his ceiling.

As a freshman per 40, Bey posted 1.2 steals, 0.5 blocks, 2.9 fouls. This isn't impressive, but passable. I'll just copy and paste this comparison list I compiled in an old Jaylen Brown thread (fouls/steals/blocks per 40).

18 y/o Paul Pierce: 3.8/2.0/1.3
19 y/o Paul Pierce: 3.9/2.4/1.1
18 y/o Carmelo: 2.4/1.7/0.9
19 y/o Jimmy Butler: 3.8/1.5/1
21 y/o Jimmy Butler: 1.5/1.7/0.4
18 y/o Demarre Carroll: 4.1/1.5/0.2
19 y/o Demarre Carroll: 3.7/1.7/0.5
18 y/o Kawhi: 3.2/1.8/0.9
19 y/o Kawhi: 3/1.7/0.7
18 y/o K Middleton: 4.5/1.6/0.6
19 y/o K Middleton: 2.9/1.6/0.1
18 y/o Winslow: 3.8/1.8/1.2
18 y/o Stanley J: 3.7/2.1/0.6
18 y/o James Young: 2.6/0.9/0.2
19 y/o Le'Bryan Nash: 3.8/0.8/0.6
19 y/o Anthony Bennett: 3.4/1/1.8
18 y/o Wiggins: 3.3/1.4/1.2
20 y/o Crowder: 3.3/1.9/1.3
21 y/o Crowder: 3.2/3.1/1.2
18 y/o Jeff Green: 3.4/1.1/1.9
19 y/o Jeff Green: 2.6/1.2/1.2
18 y/o H. Barnes: 2.6/1.0/0.6
19 y/o H. Barnes: 2.4/1.5/0.5

Jaylen didnt do it. Hes obvi a good defender. Romeo didnt do it at IU and I think most would agree he’s a good NBA defender with a lot of potential on that end. Defense is weird and advanced stats arent that good— you just need to watch guys play to figure it out unfortunately.

I posted an article earlier but high steal rates are one of the best indicators of future NBA success (not just on defense) really athletic player tend to get more steals Beys numbers show that while he is a smart player with good size he is merely an ok athlete, one of the reasons I don't love him. You want to see steals and blocks above 2. Devin Vassel for example last season was a 2.4, Aaron nesmith is a 2.4 Saddiq Bey is a 1.2 Tyler Bey is a 2.7, Tyrese Haliburton who is 6'5 is A 3.2, Obi Toppin who this board does not think of as a great defender is a 2.4, Patrick Williams off the bench playing far fewer minutes was a 2. Desmond Bane is a 2. For reference Marcus smart was a 3.5 Jae Crowder was a 3.5 Trever ariza a 2.1 Robert covington a 3.9 (though against lower level competition) Paul Reed is a 4.5 Oturo is a 3. Precious Achiwu is a 3 Nnaji is a 1.6 Jalen Smith is a 3.1 Okongwu is a 3.9. I like A bey and 26, not a Bey at 14. It is not always true but there is a statistical correlation, that study is posted like 35 pages ago.

[djFan71]

I'll use the time machine to select Xavier McDaniel.

1. Otaru
2. Paul Reed
3. Nnaji
4. Azabukie

5. V Carey, Tillman, stewart, Perry, all even.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

left out P Reed since most consider him more of a 4 man who can play some 5,

I want him as a 5, with a 3rd/4th string guy with height and girth for when matchups dictate. But for the most part, I’d love to just our quick/skill everyone

[31to6]

Now people are talking about I Stewart. Before that is was Nnaji, before that is was D Oturu.

So if second tier centers mean players not commonly picked in the lottery (1-14) who would be your top choice of these Centers at 26?? leaving out J Smith and Precious

1 - I Stewart
2 - Z Nnaji
3 - D Oturu
4 - V Carey
5 - X McDaniel

each one has different positives and negatives.. but we can only draft one..

I'll use the time machine to select Xavier McDaniel.

1. Otaru
2. Paul Reed
3. Nnaji
4. Azabukie

5. V Carey, Tillman, stewart, Perry, all even.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Good list! I want Oturu but believe Nnaji will be a good pro and Carey at least serviceable. I’d also love to get Azubuike (trade up for a higher second round pick somehow?) unless we’re super high on Tacko actually having a role on the team anytime soon.

[playa-hater]

Gentlemen, we are on the Clock at Pick 30 in the draft Forum...man up or be forever silent!!

[Bleeding Green]

Wow what a nightmare draft scenario that mock is turning out to be. Passing on Lewis/Anthony/Maxey/Hampton for Smith and then passing on Maledon at 26 and then he's gone at 30. lmao drafting Jalen Smith and Paul Reed. Sixers get Hampton at 21, Raptors get Maledon at 29. I would be sick if Ainge **** up this draft that hard. I'm sure pick 30 will be some other big, too.

EDIT: lmao it's actually Azubuike at 30 for now. Imagine if the Celtics draft Smith, Reed and Azubuike in a week. Wyc would have to fire Ainge before pick 47 could happen.

[captain green]

Wow what a nightmare draft scenario that mock is turning out to be. Passing on Lewis/Anthony/Maxey/Hampton for Smith and then passing on Maledon at 26 and then he's gone at 30. lmao drafting Jalen Smith and Paul Reed. Sixers get Hampton at 21, Raptors get Maledon at 29. I would be sick if Ainge **** up this draft that hard. I'm sure pick 30 will be some other big, too.

EDIT: lmao it's actually Azubuike at 30 for now. Imagine if the Celtics draft Smith, Reed and Azubuike in a week. Wyc would have to fire Ainge before pick 47 could happen.

Yea ugly as hell

[RodyTur10]

Wow what a nightmare draft scenario that mock is turning out to be. Passing on Lewis/Anthony/Maxey/Hampton for Smith and then passing on Maledon at 26 and then he's gone at 30. lmao drafting Jalen Smith and Paul Reed. Sixers get Hampton at 21, Raptors get Maledon at 29. I would be sick if Ainge **** up this draft that hard. I'm sure pick 30 will be some other big, too.

EDIT: lmao it's actually Azubuike at 30 for now. Imagine if the Celtics draft Smith, Reed and Azubuike in a week. Wyc would have to fire Ainge before pick 47 could happen.

At least no undersized guards who can't shoot

[Bleeding Green]

Wow what a nightmare draft scenario that mock is turning out to be. Passing on Lewis/Anthony/Maxey/Hampton for Smith and then passing on Maledon at 26 and then he's gone at 30. lmao drafting Jalen Smith and Paul Reed. Sixers get Hampton at 21, Raptors get Maledon at 29. I would be sick if Ainge **** up this draft that hard. I'm sure pick 30 will be some other big, too.

EDIT: lmao it's actually Azubuike at 30 for now. Imagine if the Celtics draft Smith, Reed and Azubuike in a week. Wyc would have to fire Ainge before pick 47 could happen.

At least no undersized guards who can't shoot

I don't think he's taken one since Rondo.

[giambijuice]

nbadraft.net(i know they're iffy) has an updated top 100

14 nesmith
26 ramsey
30 nnaji
47 nwora

if the draft went like that(yeah, right) i'd be happy...i'd be even happier if azubuike fell from 45 to 47.

[themoneyteam2]

As long as it’s not Nesmith at 14 I’m happy and I highly doubt he’s on their radar anyways since he brings nada to the game outside of his shooting (14 game sample size as well).

[giambijuice]

so who at 14 ....we need shooters.

[CelticsLV]

I think Nesmith's shooting is legit. Only 14 games but some serious volume and variety of makes (not just standing in the corner). Great size, very quick, athletic and moves really well without the ball (something this team severly lacks on offense). His defense is garbage tier. Barely 1 assist per game while playing 36 mpg. Basically a true SG.

[themoneyteam2]

I think Nesmith's shooting is legit. Only 14 games but some serious volume and variety of makes (not just standing in the corner). Great size, very quick, athletic and moves really well without the ball (something this team severly lacks on offense). His defense is garbage tier. Barely 1 assist per game while playing 36 mpg. Basically a true SG.

I think so too I just think he does nothing else but provide shooting which is why I doubt he's on the Celtics radar.

[ConstableGeneva]

Read on Twitter

[Spin Move]

I think Nesmith's shooting is legit. Only 14 games but some serious volume and variety of makes (not just standing in the corner). Great size, very quick, athletic and moves really well without the ball (something this team severly lacks on offense). His defense is garbage tier. Barely 1 assist per game while playing 36 mpg. Basically a true SG.

I think so too I just think he does nothing else but provide shooting which is why I doubt he's on the Celtics radar.

Umm shooting is pretty important, and he has great length and good athleticism, he is 6'6 and is always in motion, honestly he is not as good, but his game reminds me of Ray Allen the way he uses screens and runs all over the court. I guess another comp would be a very rich mans Duncan Robinson. I would love for us to take him at 14. He has the potential to be something more then a good starter, almost nobody else we are looking at there does. If the guys who look like its 50'50 they will be there at 14 he is my #1, he could be an all star, shooting with good size is rare.

[Gomes3PC]

Not sure why, but I just get the sense the pick this year is RJ Hampton if he's there and someone obvious doesn't slip. We need a guy with potential to be a primary initiator and Hampton has that. He's got great size for a lead guard and Ainge loves guards with a pedigree (RSCI #7 in his class, top-5 when you throw out VerbalCommits' whack ratings). If you believe his changes to the shot mechanics are real (and it looks MUCH cleaner), you've got a kid who I think could easily wind up a top-5 pick in the class.

Not saying he's MY guy at 14, but he could be Danny's.

At this point, any of him, Maxey, Pat Williams, Okoro (I know, not likely), Hayes, or Bey. Basically, a primary initiator guard who can break down the D off the bounce, or long, tough, versatile wings.