RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #14 (Oscar Robertson)

[trex_8063]

2020 List
1. LeBron James
2. Michael Jordan
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kevin Garnett
12. Kobe Bryant
13. Jerry West
14. ???

Target stop time is around 4pm EST on Wednesday.

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[quote=”sansterre”].[/quote]

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[Odinn21]

Did not get to change my ballot and text. I truly find West #13 is a considerable overrating/overranking. Heck, you know how hard I argued against Garnett being almost top 10, and West's placement feels even worse than that to me. Robertson's offensive impact and production were truly ahead of West. I found arguments for Robertson in the #13 thread very compelling.

My ballot;
14. Oscar Robertson
One of the greatest offensive players that ever graced the game and his defensive performance was not bad enough to hold him down against players like Moses, Erving, Erving and Garnett.
Based on so little knowledge compared to what we have for modern times, I'd go on a limb and say Robertson's performance in 1963 was the greatest individual performance against Bill Russell's Celtics. Better than Chamberlain's, West's and Baylor's. Surely, this is not a decider or a huge factor. Just wanted to mention and would like you to entertain this idea and hit me back with some feedback.

15. Moses Malone
I believe this will be my most controversial choice so far but I'm pretty confident in this pick.
His single season peak was tier 2 on overall for me. I'd put 1982 or 1983 Moses in the same tier as 2004 Garnett, even though I'd rate Garnett slightly higher. One of the things going for Moses though, his 3 season peak from 1980-81 to 1982-83 is definitely at the top level among the available names. He does not come short in peak, extended peak, prime and extended prime for me. His career resume is also massive.
He was one of the most skilled bigs on offense. His name rarely comes up among the best low post scorers but he literally had every move in his book and he was at least pretty good on some and great or best on most. Look at the players he thought; Hakeem Olajuwon and Charles Barkley. Also he was at least as good as old man Duncan from mid range.
The arguments against him usually go such as this;
- "He wouldn't be that good in the modern times which utilize PnR far more."
Portability is very important, yes. But, TBH, this is like saying Oscar Robertson did not shoot enough threes to me. Don't see the point of penalizing a player for a play style that was not there in his time.
Also, one of the things that gets easily overlooked while thinking about Moses' portability is that he's quite possibly the greatest foul drawing big. That would make wonders in any era. I don't have the exact numbers right now because BBRef made their play index service paid but I know that Moses Malone before fell out of his prime made young Hakeem Olajuwon fouled out in majority of their h2h games. I wrote the exact numbers in the past on the forum, if I find, I'll edit this part.
- "He was a negative impact on defense."
This is flat out wrong and it's not about some preference unlike the previous point. If Moses Malone was a negative impact on defense, then how did the Sixers improved on defense after losing their best defender in order to get Moses?
1982 Sixers; 7th in DRtg with -3.0 rDRtg
1983 Sixers; 5th in DRtg with -3.8 rDRtg
The thing about his defense was, he was inconsistent. He had bad defensive seasons and good defensive seasons, in the end both sides would cancel out each other and I'd put down Moses Malone as an average defender. But I never get the point of talking about him as if he was Nowitzki who got way more traction than him so far.
- "He was not an impact player."
This is also one of the wrong assumptions about him. I think I watched enough games of him to get the sense of a very positive impact player.
Also there was a Dipper 13 thread at the time, showing on/off Rtg numbers for the '80s Sixers. I'm looking for that, couldn't find it so far. If anyone has the link, it'd be appreciated.
Edit; Found it.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZxRM9p2dFil5w6s21VEB4HnQZJymEY8_2vej-jREuUo/edit#gid=459687126
Just look at the numbers he had in '83 and '85 in Philly. (I tend to consider 1984 of Moses as something like 2005 for Bryant, a down year but also an outlier.)

The only aspect I'd hold against him is his passing. He was not a black hole, he was a decent facilitator. Though his passing lacked in some sense and you wouldn't see him those cutting passes to a guard under the basket. That type of stuff was the only major gap in his game for me.
His skillset was great, his scoring volume was great, he had the proper impact on offense, he's among one of the greatest rebounders. We usually overlook rebounding, the neutral aspect of the game, in this offense and defense evaluations. His defensive inconsistencies and passing issues are there to be addressed surely but, his great qualities are enough for me to put him on 13th spot.

16. Karl Malone
This spot was between Erving, West and Karl Malone for me.
Between the 3, I'd rank their peaks in Erving, West, Malone order. While Malone falls behind in peak, average prime level and postseason resilience categoris, for me he makes up more than that with his longevity. I'm aware that it was harder for Erving and West to have that many quality seasons in their career due to their times. What makes Malone's case is his constantly being that good over a decade. His 1st prime season was 1988 and his best season was 10 years after in 1998 at his 34. It's very hard to leave out Malone for top 5 prime duration. That makes his career value bigger than Erving and West for me.

---

I expect to see Robertson getting inducted to the list. TBH, I don't know much about Mikan. I can't trust my knowledge about him enough to declare him for a certain spot. But I guess after Robertson's selection, I'll have him on my ballot.

[eminence]

My top two seem pretty secure here (Mikan/Oscar), so I'll be focusing on that 3rd spot this go around. Dirk was the guy I put there last time, but it was a bit of a placeholder. Excited to listen to cases and dive in a bit myself.

[trex_8063]

(Mostly copied from last thread)

Slight question on who for my third vote, but no question as to who my top two picks go to. Considering who is already off the table, my criteria which is largely centered around longevity of quality [and also noting I tend to value the rs more than many], this spot comes down to the Mailman and Dirk. I’m hedging at present toward Malone [and I’ll try to explain why]....

Malone is often passed over for other candidates on the basis of his decline in the playoffs. It’s a fair criticism, particularly against someone like Dirk, who was fairly playoff resilient [especially late in his prime]. However, I sometimes feel as though that decline is overstated.
That is, I acknowledge his decline (and even that it was proportionally larger than that seen from most superstars), but I also think he was still a pretty darn good player in the playoffs, and that the proportion of his decline only appears so large because of just how awesome and dominant he typically was during the regular season.

His shooting efficiency typically took a dip in the playoffs [occasionally a pretty substantial one]. On the other hand, his turnover economy in the playoffs during his prime was often BETTER than what it had been in the regular season.

By comparison, Dirk’s shooting efficiency basically didn’t decline at all [and his rebounding improved] in the playoffs…...but his turnover economy worsened.

I’ll demonstrate this by showing their production and efficiency numbers during their respective primes (‘89-’01 for Malone, ‘01-’14 for Dirk).
NOTE: While that 14-year span for Dirk is perhaps a little too extended, I went with that because it makes his prime basically the same length as Malone’s. Yes, it’s one more season than the span I’ve stipulated for Malone; but despite that (and despite the fact that the one hold-out year in Dirk’s prime [‘12] had 16 more games than the hold-out year in Malone’s prime [‘99]), Dirk still only played 31 additional games in this period than Malone did from ‘89-’01. This is because while Dirk missed 73 games in that span, Malone was of course a total iron-man, missing just 6 games in 13 years. And because Malone was also averaging marginally higher minutes, he still actually played 266 more minutes in his 13-year prime than Dirk did in this 14-year “prime” I’ve listed.
One could go with just ‘01-’12 for Dirk’s prime, and his numbers would look marginally better in doing so; but then one would also be forced to acknowledge that Dirk’s prime was substantially shorter [in terms of games/minutes played], too. Sort of six in one hand, half-dozen in the other, imo.

Anyway, let’s look at the comparison, starting with the regular season….

K.Malone (rs, ‘89-’01):
36.7 pts/100 poss @ 59.1% TS (+6.0% rTS), 14.2 reb/100 (16.4% TREB% (24.0% DREB%)), 5.0 ast/100, 4.1 tov/100, in 37.9 mpg. 8.69% mTOV%.
Avg Jazz offense: +3.64 rORTG

D.Nowitzki (rs, ‘01-’14):
33.7 pts/100 poss @ 58.5% TS (+5.3% rTS), 12.0 reb/100 (13.1% TREB% (22.4% DREB%)), 3.9 ast/100, 2.7 tov/100, in 36.6 mpg. 6.55% mTOV%
Avg Maverick offense: +3.98 rORTG

^^^^In the rs, Malone was scoring at higher volume on marginally better shooting efficiency, generating more assists, and rebounding at a higher rate. I also think he was [on average] the better defensive player between the two (though I’ll add more on that below in some scouting observations; this is meant mostly to be the statistical comparison).
The only things he is clearly inferior to Dirk in on the statistical comp is in his turnover economy. Dirk is more or less on the GOAT-tier of that among big-men. Is his better turnover economy enough to off-set being a lesser scorer, rebounder, and defender during the rs? (I realize it’s not quite that easy or “boiled down” of a question, as I do think Dirk generates a little more gravity, and he certainly is better able to spread the floor. Though I sort of feel Malone is a marginally better screen-setter, fwiw. But again I want to get to some of this later in scouting.) From a purely statistical point, no, I don’t think the better turnover economy is quite enough to off-set it.

In the playoffs, I mentioned Malone’s shooting efficiency falls off precipitously, but that his turnover economy actually improved in his prime. Here are his playoff numbers….

Karl Malone (ps, ‘89-’01):
35.3 pts/100 poss @ 53.2% TS (+0.1% rTS), 14.8 reb/100 (16.3% TREB% (24.2% DREB%)), 4.4 ast/100, 3.8 tov/100, in 41.4 mpg. 7.92% mTOV%.

Before I show Dirk’s, this is what I’m talking about: ^^^those are still REALLY substantial numbers (and note the the mild-moderately improved turnover economy). And this was while facing some pretty tough defenses much of the way. The average rDRTG he faced in the playoffs in his prime (for ease, weighted per series [not per game played]) was -2.39.

By comparison, the average one faced by Dirk in his prime was -2.18. Here is how Dirk did against those defenses:

D.Nowitzki (ps, ‘01-’14):
33.0 pts/100 poss @ 57.9% TS (+4.7% rTS), 13.1 reb/100 (14.2% TREB% (24.6% DREB%)), 3.3 ast/100, 3.0 tov/100, in 41.1 mpg. 7.51% mTOV%

Dirk’s shooting efficiency holds steady (and his rebounding goes up a little), but his turnover economy takes a somewhat notable dive…...to the point that Malone’s turnover economy in the playoffs is only slightly worse. This is relevant given turnover economy was really the only advantage Dirk had on him in the rs figures.
Overall, Malone’s playoff numbers are only a little worse than Dirk’s [despite facing marginally better defenses on average, and despite his playoff reputation].

I at least hope that’s some food for thought.

In terms of impact, Dirk’s average RAPM over that span of seasons is +4.48.
Malone’s avg RAPM [which includes the playoffs] from ‘97-’01 is +4.11. His avg rs-only pseudo-APM from ‘94-’96 is +5.06.


As to what I see when I watch these guys…..
There’s no question Dirk was the better and more resilient isolation scorer, at least by later in his prime. That Dirk-patented one-legged fader…..impossible to stop, you just had to hope he’d miss. This at times created a little more gravitational effect, and because of his superior range, he spreads the floor more, too.
Because he operated so much in the mid-range, it tended to aid in the lower turnover economy I’ve referred to as well (though probably also contributed to his lower OREB%).
And he’s probably a marginally underrated passer.

Malone, however, is a clearly better passer (and perhaps not close).
A common play run with some of the late-90s Jazz squads was the guard [Stockton or Hornacek] with ball on the wing would get the ball to Malone in the mid-post region, with everyone else cleared out toward the perimeter; then that guard would trot laterally toward the top of the key before [on the far side of the key] cutting toward the basket off the back-pick being set by the OTHER guard…...and if the defense wasn’t perfect, Malone would hit that cutter for a lay-up. By the latter half of his prime he was excellent [OUTSTANDING, even] at hitting cutters in general (see video below; actual passes start at 0:14 mark), and also fantastic passing out of double-teams.

Watch on YouTube

As much as Garnett’s passing had been lauded in prior threads, I don’t think he was any better [or even as good???] as late-prime Karl Malone.
As I believe 70sFan had alluded to, I think that’s a big part of why/how the Jazz of the late 90s managed some fantastically elite rORTG’s (relative to their opponents) in the post-season [will try to post later with just how good these post-season offenses were], despite Malone's lower than standard shooting efficiency in the playoffs.

As to scoring, he didn’t have Dirk’s unstoppable go-to move, but he was able to score in a variety of ways: rim-running, face-up shooting, occasional “simple” forays at the rim from a face-up or a post-up [often looking to just draw contact] where he finished pretty well (from ‘97-’01 Malone was finishing >66% at the rim [vs 64.1% for prime Dirk]). And of course there was transition scoring, which Malone was probably the best big-man at that until Giannis came along.
And while Malone didn’t quite have Dirk’s mid-range prowess, he was a very capable mid-range shooter by at least ‘94 (off the pnp, or facing up): his % from 16-23’ in ‘97-’01 is actually almost spot-on with prime Dirk, believe it or not, at >47%. His % from 10-16’ lags about 7-8% behind Dirk, though.

And Malone had a higher FTAr (bearing in mind he played in an era of worse spacing, too). Also a larger presence on the offensive glass, as alluded to above.
Both are good screen-setters, imo; gun to my head, I maybe give Malone the edge.


Defensively, BOTH players are box-out guys (as opposed to purely hunting [and potentially cannibalizing] rebounds)......but Malone’s defensive rebounding rates are a little better (as noted above), at least in the regular season.

Dirk’s positioning on pnr defense [at least by the latter half of his prime] is excellent, and consequently he hedges REALLY well; by late in his prime he was pretty slow on the recover part of “hedge and recover”, though.

He’s got good length, so his post defense wasn’t bad, though he wasn’t really what I’d call a “banger”.
Malone, otoh, could bang in the post. I mean….



No one is pushing that around. He could bang with the bigger PF’s, or occasionally defend centers in the post.

I’d rate his lateral mobility as marginally better than Dirk’s. I think because he’s so huge [see photo] it would give the impression of “clunky” movement…..but he was quite mobile.

He also had very quick and active hands, which is how he came to be 12th all-time in steals (and 2nd to only Hakeem among PF/C’s). I mean, he actually still has more steals than Lebron James at this point, if you can believe that. He’s 16th all-time in career playoff steals, btw (1st among PF/C’s).
And he was the master at “pulling the chair” in the post.

I don’t want to give the impression that he was consistently an All-D level defensive PF, but he was pretty good thru much of his career. All things considered, I think he was the better defensive player [compared to Dirk].

And given his effective longevity [due to lack of injury-missed time] is slightly superior…..

1st vote: Karl Malone
2nd vote: Dirk Nowitzki
3rd vote: Mostly deciding between Oscar or DRob [with Dr J sort of floating in the periphery of this decision, too]. As it's more likely to be the counted vote, I'll go with Oscar Robertson.

[WestGOAT]

14. Stockton (greatest PURE and overall PG all time)
15. Karl Malone (one of the greatest PFs all time)
16. Hornacek (one of the greatest role players all time)

Go elsewhere to troll. Next one gets a warning. trex

[Gibson22]

14. Stockton (greatest PURE and overall PG all time)
15. Karl Malone (one of the greatest PFs all time)
16. Hornacek (one of the greatest role players all time)

No

[Odinn21]

My top two seem pretty secure here (Mikan/Oscar), so I'll be focusing on that 3rd spot this go around. Dirk was the guy I put there last time, but it was a bit of a placeholder. Excited to listen to cases and dive in a bit myself.

I think Karl Malone's prime duration and overall longevity are too much for Nowitzki, Robinson, Ewing, Barkley, Durant, Curry, Paul, Wade, etc.
I also don't see much of a reason for Nowitzki over Erving. But I'd like to see many opinions about that comparison.

You could also consider Moses BTW. He's been on my ballot since #11 thread, he was my 3rd option after Bryant and Robertson. Him being on my ballot for some time made me overlook that he's only on my ballot. He had it all. Peak, prime, average level, longevity, career resume. I usually consider that he didn't have a long prime but his prime was from 1978-79 to 1984-85. 1983-84 was a down season for him. He had 6 properly great/elite seasons. That's maybe short of Chamberlain, but not shorter than the players Moses is competing against now (other than Karl Malone surely).

[Gibson22]

Quick vote:

1) Oscar. Goat level offensive player, comparable offensive to the best offensive players left (who are not contenders for the spot) like steph, nash and cp3, scored 29.3 on modern level efficiency (+8RTS%) on the royals, was by far the best passer in the league and the best rebounder for his position, I attribute much of his lack of playoff success to his teams being ass and the only meh loss is in his first season, and he still played great by the numbers, he also played an incredible series in 1963 against the celtics, look it up. I also consider him a good defender.

2) Mikan: I factor in the era he played in and the lack of longeivty (but you still have to weigh longevity relative to the era's standard) but you can't justify having oscar and west as borderline top 10 and then turn around and not take a look at mikan

3) Karl Malone. His longevity to me outweighs the slight inferiority to guys like erving, kd, moses, drob, steph

[penbeast0]

Clearly Mikan is #1 for me, he has been for awhile. The only real GOAT candidate left that was the clear best for more than a year or two. NBA sportswriters named him the greatest player of the first 25 years of the NBA over Russell, Wilt, West, and Oscar. He was the greatest offensive AND defensive player of his day. Yes, the league was very weak early on but his dominance was so spectacular that I think he has to go here.

After that it is close. If I was choosing a team, I would pick David Robinson or Steph Curry here but both have really short careers. At the other end are the really long careers of Karl Malone, Moses Malone, and Dirk Nowitzki with the truly great in lesser competition careers of Julius Erving and Bob Pettit in there too. Pettit suffers from being a 50s guys but he was the best or 1a/1b with Baylor as the best forward all the way up to the season before he retired. Of DRob or Curry, I will go Curry as he has proved to be the biggest difference maker in the modern era (yes, arguably bigger than LeBron when healthy), of the longevity monsters, Karl Malone's prime extends well beyond Moses who dropped off (and has passing issues which we have found quickly degrade a great statistical big's ability to impact offensive efficiency for his team), and Dirk's as well. Dirk has the playoff edge, Karl the defensive edge, the combination puts Karl Malone ahead of Dirk as well. For the mid length career greats, I see peak Erving as stronger than peak Pettit; that's the ABA version of course.

So, it comes down to Curry, KMalone, or Erving here. Curry only has 6 years at his prime level with injuries marring some of those. Some playoff dropoff too. Want to vote Curry, but I will go with Erving unless someone can talk me down.

Now it's Erving or Oscar for the second and third spots (Oscar is my default as the former #3 pick). Erving peaked higher, Oscar was more consistent and didn't have that midcareer low spot. Oscar also played in a stronger era and his offensive impact is more evident (unless you really really believe in Jerry Lucas's offensive power).

1. George Mikan (and it's not close for me)
---------------------------------------------------
2. Oscar Robertson
3. Julius Erving

And I can be talked out of 2 OR 3 but only with strong, head to head arguments. Very willing to listen. I have Oscar over Erving despite past years' votes because I have been reading the impact on offenses arguments that some posters have made and decided they had good points.

[DQuinn1575]

1. Oscar - year after year put up incredible stats. Good enough to beat out Wilt and Russell for MVP. Considered by virtually all who saw him at the time to be by far best perimeter player of era. Good/smart enough to assume a lesser, but still starring role on all-time great team.
1961-1968 - first 8 years Oscar is ahead of West in mvp voting every year but 1; West was barely ahead. 1969 neither shows on b-reference, but Oscar was 1st team nba, not West,
so for the first 9 years, when Oscar was at his peak he was considered better than West. Basically 8 wins and 1 narrow loss. ESPN Sports Century- Robertson 36, West 62.
AP player of the Century- Oscar 2nd behind only Jordan, West 9th.
1986 poll - Oscar second best player of all-time picked by panel. (Jabbar 1st)
Probably every basketball magazine or book I read in the 60s-70s.
Virtually everything I read or saw at the time- Oscar was better.
Early and mid 60s, people didn't debate Oscar vs. West, they debated Oscar vs Russell and Wilt.
Oscar aged quicker than West. The West I saw was better than Oscar.
And West is a Top 20 player, and Oscar was considered much better.
I’m not using any of these as proof Oscar was better; I’m trying to convey to people who didn’t read or talk to people in the 70s about how good he was.
People who didn’t experience any of this are going to post how they know so much more than virtually everyone who saw them play.


2. Dirk - Long career, great prime, and led his team to title. Probably not best defender here, but taking him (for now) over others.

3. Mikan - by far most dominant player on the board.

[Joao Saraiva]

Excited to write a bit about Karl Malone, the 1st Jazz legend I believe belongs in this list. I'll drop by later.

[LA Bird]

NBA sportswriters named [Mikan] the greatest player of the first 25 years of the NBA over Russell, Wilt, West, and Oscar.

Do you have the list for this? Only award I know of is the 25th year anniversary team but that excluded active players (Wilt, Oscar, West) and Russell, not Mikan, was the only unanimous pick.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_25th_Anniversary_Team

2) Mikan: I factor in the era he played in and the lack of longeivty (but you still have to weigh longevity relative to the era's standard)

Even relative to era, Mikan's longevity wasn't great. Schayes and Cousy both had around 12 seasons and Pettit played 11 years. Arizin lost two seasons of his prime serving during the Korean War and still played 10 season before retiring due to a team relocation. Mikan only had 8 seasons (excluding the comeback) and he missed almost half of his rookie year.

[HeartBreakKid]

So I'm finally jumping in the project, going to just make a quick vote to get my feet wet (need to read the past threads to get up to date). I believe I am supposed to vote for 3 guys, correct?

1) Oscar Robertson - His game was incredibly modern. Great handles, great mid range, post game, understood tempo. He had an elite body, elite athleticism and all of this translated both into stats, impact and winning. Yes, Oscar Robertson did get his ass kicked a lot but he eventually got it done with good ol Kareem. Oscar, like Jerry West was a freakish outlier in terms of efficiency for his era, even more so considering he is a guard (like West). The Royals were the best offense for many seasons, including seasons where the even had losing records. That's what being a PG is all about, for my money I think he is the best PG of all time.

2) Julius Erving - Keep in mind for this project the ABA is supposed to be taken into account. When you consider that, Erving has what - 3 rings and 4 MVPs? The accolades are one of the things people always harp about Dr.J, but the guy was one of the best players in two different leagues with two different metas. He also joined the ABA when it was at its most competitive on top of that. His scoring going down in the NBA makes a lot of sense considering he was paired up with a lot of go to scorers. There is skepticism on his skill set because he doesn't exactly look like a guy with a great jumper, and he's not a point-forward or a defensive anchor. He was very good at most aspects of basketball, but scoring was his forte - and he wasn't a player like Giannis who can be gimped. He had excellent timing of when to slash and when to cut - he was essentially a bigger and more athletic version of Dwayne Wade - and Wade was pretty damn dominant.

3) Dirk Nowitzki - For my money he was a top 5 player since 2002 or so up until 2011. There are many years in Dirk's career that people either forgot or were overlooked by the media cause he is just consistently really good. This is why Dirk's career is usually summed up as 06, 07 and 11 as the outlier years - when they're not really outlier years. Dirk offensively is just as good as Kobe Bryant, if not more so, and his prime is about just as long. Dirk did not get a lot of media recognition many years, or a lot of hardware and when he got upset twice in 06 and 07 it killed a lot of momentum for his reputation. There is really no reason to think someone like Kobe is so much better than Dirk if we're not going off of reputation, while Dirk does not score a lot of points (neither does Larry Bird) he still opens up defenses for his teammates. He is also an all time great isolation scorer post 2007. I don't think a guy like Karl Malone can elevate a team like Dirk can, Dirk almost always showed up and did his job in the post season and even when his teammates often changed the Mavericks were always lethal.


Some comments on other guys who I reckon are being considered.

Keep in mind I am a peak guy not a longevity guy

Karl Malone - he is an all around player but his main asset is supposed to be scoring, yet he is a pretty bad scorer in the post season. I am not really convinced at all that Karl Malone was that great - the three players I listed would all butcher him in scoring. Scorings not the only thing that matters but Karl really left a lot to be desired there for most of his career, and he wasn't elite enough at the other aspects of basketball to make him a top 14 player.

George Mikan - I understand rating dominance relative to your peer, but he played in a time where people were not allowed to compete against him due to the color of their skin. I think people don't realize how disgusting that actually is, and while it is not Mikan's fault, I don't really understand why I would reward him by pretending that he dominated all of the best players in the world when he did not. He probably was the best player anyway, but his competition wasn't as good as the others, and it isn't just because it was old, it was because the best players in the nation couldn't play in the same league as him. The NBA wasn't what it was until it allowed people of color to play. If George Mikan was put into the 1960s he would be an all-star but he would not dominate or be a perennial MVP candidate I think. When he came back from retirement at 31, not exactly ancient, he was nowhere near as good as someone like Bob Pettit. I understand George was playing himself into shape (he was falling off years before that anyway), but I just have my doubts that he was even the best player of the 50s.

Dwayne Wade - I actually seriously considered him here because I don't penalize his lack of quantity play. He is neck to neck with Dirk in my opinion.

Paul/Nash/Curry - I think these guys are all top 20 contenders, but removing winning bias from the equation and Oscar Robertson looks like he has no real set backs. Paul/Nash/Curry all have little hints of doubt that might make someone question how elite they truly were - I don't feel that with Oscar Robertson.

[Odinn21]

I'm curious about realizing 2011 not being Nowitzki's peak would change the arguments going in his favour.

I usually considered 2006 as his peak because his motor in 2011 was way lower. Surely, he had massive impact as usual. In both of my RAPM resources, he had the highest values thanks to his offensive impact. His O-RAPM was top 3 along with Nash and Wade.
In the recent talks about Nowitzki, I keep pointing out his struggles against players like Marion, who tried to limit his movement over his shots (and succeeded), and he didn't have that kind of issue in 2011.

But his performance / production as a whole was not there. The gap between 2006 and 2011 regular seasons are just too much.
2006; 3089 minutes, 28.1 per (#1), 13.5 ows (#1), 0.275 ws/48 (#1), 7.8 obpm (#1), 7.9 vorp (#3)
2011; 2504 minutes, 23.4 per (#10), 7.8 ows (#9), 0.213 ws/48 (#7), 4.3 obpm (#9), 4.5 vorp (#10)

And it wasn't like his impact was not there. #5 in RAPM, #3 among 2400+ minute players after Wade and Duncan. #4 on O-RAPM, top 1% again.

Having a big stretching the floor is very valuable, if that's Nowitzki it is insanely valuable. But that shouldn't make us overlook his rebounding. He was already an OK rebounder, not a particularly good one.
2006; 9.0 reb per game and 12.9 reb per 100 in r. season / 11.7 reb per game and 14.7 reb per 100 in playoffs
2011; 7.0 reb per game and 10.8 reb per 100 in r. season / 8.1 reb per game and 11.5 reb per 100 in playoffs

Looking at his scoring, surely he had a better postseason run in 2011 but his offense as a whole?
2006 playoffs; 27.0 pts per game, 34.0 pts per 100 on .596 ts - 26.8 per, 0.185 ows/48, 7.8 obpm
2011 playoffs; 27.7 pts per game, 39.1 pts per 100 on .609 ts - 25.2 per, 0.158 ows/48, 4.7 obpm

In 2006, his defensive effort was higher, he was more mobile - his lateral quickness was better, he hustled more aggressively.

I feel like this is winning bias...

[TrueLAfan]

1. Julius Erving
2. Oscar Robertson
3. Karl Malone

Julius Erving. Sticking with Doc here. Pre-Moses, Julius Erving’s teams were always good; Julius Erving never played on a team that finished under .500. Over 11 seasons, his teams won nearly 65% of their games. Three different franchises, two leagues, success everywhere. And not just regular season success either. You can consider it a strike against Erving that he didn’t win an NBA title until he teamed with Moses. But in his other 6 NBA seasons, he went to the Finals 3 times and played his ass off (27-7-4.5 with over 2 steals and over a block and a half a game on .536 shooting and a TS% of nearly .590). I personally give him plenty of credit for the two ABA titles—look, nobody realistically would have thought Julius Erving was anything other than a top 5 player in 1974 and 1976. (Actually, I think you’ll get a pretty strong consensus from most people that he was the best player in either league in 1976.) So, before Moses--two titles, three other finals trips, playoffs every year, 65% regular season winning percentage and a playoff record of 84-58. That’s over 900 games right there—before he picked up his third title as a very, very good Robin.

When you get right down to it, Erving's first 13 years--a really good length peak--were tremendous. He was in the top 10 of MVP voting every year but one ... except, does anyone know what happened with the 1972 ABA MVP voting? Anyway--96% of games played, well over 1000 games, 25-9-4.5 with very good efficiency and over 2 steals and 2 blocks a game. Whether it's WS, WS/48 (.206 for those 13 seasons!), VORP--advanced metrics tell you the same thing. Julius Erving was awesome.

The thing is, again, that he got it to trickle down to his teams. I appreciate the fundamentals argument with Oscar, and his numbers are better (maybe) than J’s. But Julius Erving had more success and did it for longer. I feel good about my choice here. Everyone in the top 20 is going to have great numbers. The guy who got the most done with them, IMO, is Julius Erving.

Oscar Robertson. Already discussed him in detail. The Oscar/Malone/Dirk triumverate rate really close in my book. But I'll stick with Oscar here for now.

Karl Malone. Others will talk about this more. I’m very much a believer in peak over longevity—but you have be clear about how you value and balance those attributes. I think Karl Malone’s peak is a little overstated; he always seemed to lack that final gear to push himself and his team over the top. That doesn’t make him anything less than an awesome player, but—yeah, in retrospect, there are almost always 2-3 players I’d take over Karl every year. David Robinson gets grief for playoff failings; I’d take DRob’s peak over Malone’s. Same with Barkley. But it’s pretty close and there’s just too much of Karl’s longevity. His numbers are so similar, it’s easy to think he just did the same thing over and over—and, really, he didn’t. He was much more of a mid-post player in the second half of his career, which cut back a bit on his rebounding, but showed his much improved passing game. He actually improved as a defender in the second half of his career too, IMO—he was better at switching off. I think he learned how to see the court better has moved from low post to mid post around 1995, and applied what he saw on both ends.

But Malone is also a player who, IMO, functions best with an Alpha leader out there. It’s tempting to say “Well, he had Stockton!” … but I don’t think John Stockton is that type of player. Stockton is tough as nails and strong on both ends, but he struggles to individually lift a team … and since Malone doesn’t have that final gear either and he played with Stockton and in the same system for, well, ever, he never got to the finish line. It’s tough to rank him;’ there are players who I prefer on a single season basis who also have good length careers. (I could switch this to Dirk, for instance.) But there’s so much there there with Malone that, for now, he’ll be my #3 pick.

[Doctor MJ]

I'm curious about realizing 2011 not being Nowitzki's peak would change the arguments going in his favour.

I usually considered 2006 as his peak because his motor in 2011 was way lower. Surely, he had massive impact as usual. In both of my RAPM resources, he had the highest values thanks to his offensive impact. His O-RAPM was top 3 along with Nash and Wade.
In the recent talks about Nowitzki, I keep pointing out his struggles against players like Marion, who tried to limit his movement over his shots (and succeeded), and he didn't have that kind of issue in 2011.

But his performance / production as a whole was not there. The gap between 2006 and 2011 regular seasons are just too much.
2006; 3089 minutes, 28.1 per (#1), 13.5 ows (#1), 0.275 ws/48 (#1), 7.8 obpm (#1), 7.9 vorp (#3)
2011; 2504 minutes, 23.4 per (#10), 7.8 ows (#9), 0.213 ws/48 (#7), 4.3 obpm (#9), 4.5 vorp (#10)

And it wasn't like his impact was not there. #5 in RAPM, #3 among 2400+ minute players after Wade and Duncan. #4 on O-RAPM, top 1% again.

Having a big stretching the floor is very valuable, if that's Nowitzki it is insanely valuable. But that shouldn't make us overlook his rebounding. He was already an OK rebounder, not a particularly good one.
2006; 9.0 reb per game and 12.9 reb per 100 in r. season / 11.7 reb per game and 14.7 reb per 100 in playoffs
2011; 7.0 reb per game and 10.8 reb per 100 in r. season / 8.1 reb per game and 11.5 reb per 100 in playoffs

Looking at his scoring, surely he had a better postseason run in 2011 but his offense as a whole?
2006 playoffs; 27.0 pts per game, 34.0 pts per 100 on .596 ts - 26.8 per, 0.185 ows/48, 7.8 obpm
2011 playoffs; 27.7 pts per game, 39.1 pts per 100 on .609 ts - 25.2 per, 0.158 ows/48, 4.7 obpm

In 2006, his defensive effort was higher, he was more mobile - his lateral quickness was better, he hustled more aggressively.

I feel like this is winning bias...

I think there's a recurring phenomenon of players peaking in regular season impact before they become bullet proof against playoff competition.

I think Dirk in 2011 was more resilient than he was in 2007, and that matters. So to me the debate isn't about younger vs older prime Dirk, but whether 2011 is the precise peak. Winning bias makes us focus there, but to me it's really a question of when he figured things out in the aftermath of 2007.

I think LeBron was at his most valuable in 2009, his more portable in 2013, and his most bullet proof from his success in the 2016 finals onwards.

I think people think that Steph Curry's game is fundamentally problematic to some degree in the playoffs, and I just think he needs to figure some things out. Will he ever have a year as consistently good as '15-16? Nah, but he's already had playoff runs more impressive than that one, and if he can get back to where he was before injury, he'll probably get even better (though more championships are of course no guarantee even then).

I think Bird & Magic displayed some of this, so did Kareem, and probably Wilt too to a degree.

[Joao Saraiva]

Votes
1. Karl Malone
2. Dirk Nowitzki
3. Oscar Robertson

The arguments for Malone

Longevity
Malone is clearly the superstar left with the most longevity. Dude was among the best players of the league from 88 to 00. That is a long, long run. Only KAJ, LeBron and Duncan are comparable in that regard.
He has 14 seasons of high caliber. For example, Dirk has 11. 3 seasons doesn't seem a very big gap, but Malone was also much better than Dirk at the begining of their careers and at the end.

Never missed the playoffs and his prime is really good
In a freaking long career, Malone always made the playoffs. He was the driving force of the Jazz for a big portion of that. Taking only RS into account I have no doubt Malone would have a great case for a top 10 player of all time.
His prime was fantastic, and I'd say between him and Dirk, Malone has 6 out of the top 8 seasons. That is enough to upset the advantage of Dirk peak wise for me.

Was not freaking consistent in the playoffs, but he had a bunch of great runs
91, 92, 94, 96, 97, 98 and 00 were very good playoff runs. So while he was inconsistent, he stil has 7 great runs. That is still very impressive on it's own. His inconsistency in the playoffs is the reason why I don't rank Malone higher, but I can only "punish" him so much.

His peak is better than given credit for
I believe Karl Malone was fantastic in 98. His RS was really solid, and while not being his best, he was already a very polished post player, with a fantastic mid range shot, strong as a bull, great rebounder, good passer for a big man and a very good defender. Defense is one aspect that is undervalued on Malone's game, but I'll talk a bit about that too later.
I think Dirk has a case in peak vs Malone, but was 06 Dirk or 11 Dirk that much better?
Malone played very well in the 98 finals. Games 5 and 6 are games for the ages. While Dirk was fantastic in the 11 campaign, he didn't play better in the finals than Malone in 98 I'd say. So the gap isn't that big between them.
He was not the fast break machine he once was, but he still was very good in that regard.

Defense is undervalued
Malone had really great hands. He'd disrupt shots when player were on their way up, and while not being as flashy as blocks from Hakeem for example, he still disrupted a lot of plays near the rim. He was also a very solid man to man defender and a good help defender.

Accodales wise he is probably the best player left
Ok, 0 FMVPs. But he is a two time MVP, he has 11 all-NBA 1st teams, 14 all-star games, 5 top 3 finishes in MVP awards, and 9 finishes in the top 5. That is as great as it gets. I take finishing among the most voted players (top 10) into high consideration, cause that talks strenght on a players' greatness in his own era.

[Magic Is Magic]

Voting for the #14 spot:


1. Oscar Robertson
2. Dirk Nowitzki
3. David Robinson

Oscar Robertson is one of those guys that is hard to rank because he was "ahead of his time' but didn't win a lot of rings. What isn't hard to rank is his ability to be an elite level all around player. He was a 12x all star and led the league in assists 6x, a 1x MVP and champion. That resume alone is incredible. Oscar also averaged a triple double for a full season BEFORE it was cool (and a 30 point triple-double at that). He was one of those truly all around players that could shoot, pass, and rebound at a high level in an era where most players were great at a few things but not all things.

It must be noted that Dirk does have his playoff blunder as a favorite (a 1 seed versus an 8 seed loss) but most all all-time greats will have at least one series where they lose as a favorite. What Dirk does have in his resume is everything an all-time great needs to be considered all-time great. He has longevity, he has an MVP, he has a ring, he has a Finals MVP, he also is a great +/- playoff performer among the cream of the crop. Additionally, 30,000 points and 10,000 rebounds with a championship over Wade, Lebron, and Bosh is hard to argue against. Most of the guys someone would argue over Dirk do not have all the accolades that Dirk has: Karl Malone (no ring), George Mikan (no longevity), David Robinson (no Finals MVP), but again, I can admit I could be swayed but I find it hard not to include Dirk in this spot.

I have a hard time ranking Karl Malone high when he had a full career with HOF legend John Stockton and never won a single ring. If you break it down he only ever even made the Finals 2 years in his entire time playing with Stockton (I'm not counting the Lakers blunder as a "Finals appearance"). Maybe I could be swayed, but I have to go with David Robinson here because of his elite ability to play both sides of the ball and him winning 2 rings (one of them as a main piece). The only thing hurting him that Malone definitely has over D-Rob is longevity and longevity is important but D-Rob still played 14 years. David Robinson's skill set is so rare, he has to be one of the very few to win a blocking title and scoring title in a career. Pair that with his DPOY award, an MVP and 2 chips and I think D-Rob wins this spot.

[Odinn21]

I'm curious about realizing 2011 not being Nowitzki's peak would change the arguments going in his favour.

I usually considered 2006 as his peak because his motor in 2011 was way lower. Surely, he had massive impact as usual. In both of my RAPM resources, he had the highest values thanks to his offensive impact. His O-RAPM was top 3 along with Nash and Wade.
In the recent talks about Nowitzki, I keep pointing out his struggles against players like Marion, who tried to limit his movement over his shots (and succeeded), and he didn't have that kind of issue in 2011.

But his performance / production as a whole was not there. The gap between 2006 and 2011 regular seasons are just too much.
2006; 3089 minutes, 28.1 per (#1), 13.5 ows (#1), 0.275 ws/48 (#1), 7.8 obpm (#1), 7.9 vorp (#3)
2011; 2504 minutes, 23.4 per (#10), 7.8 ows (#9), 0.213 ws/48 (#7), 4.3 obpm (#9), 4.5 vorp (#10)

And it wasn't like his impact was not there. #5 in RAPM, #3 among 2400+ minute players after Wade and Duncan. #4 on O-RAPM, top 1% again.

Having a big stretching the floor is very valuable, if that's Nowitzki it is insanely valuable. But that shouldn't make us overlook his rebounding. He was already an OK rebounder, not a particularly good one.
2006; 9.0 reb per game and 12.9 reb per 100 in r. season / 11.7 reb per game and 14.7 reb per 100 in playoffs
2011; 7.0 reb per game and 10.8 reb per 100 in r. season / 8.1 reb per game and 11.5 reb per 100 in playoffs

Looking at his scoring, surely he had a better postseason run in 2011 but his offense as a whole?
2006 playoffs; 27.0 pts per game, 34.0 pts per 100 on .596 ts - 26.8 per, 0.185 ows/48, 7.8 obpm
2011 playoffs; 27.7 pts per game, 39.1 pts per 100 on .609 ts - 25.2 per, 0.158 ows/48, 4.7 obpm

In 2006, his defensive effort was higher, he was more mobile - his lateral quickness was better, he hustled more aggressively.

I feel like this is winning bias...

I think there's a recurring phenomenon of players peaking in regular season impact before they become bullet proof against playoff competition.

I think Dirk in 2011 was more resilient than he was in 2007, and that matters. So to me the debate isn't about younger vs older prime Dirk, but whether 2011 is the precise peak. Winning bias makes us focus there, but to me it's really a question of when he figured things out in the aftermath of 2007.

I think LeBron was at his most valuable in 2009, his more portable in 2013, and his most bullet proof from his success in the 2016 finals onwards.

I think people think that Steph Curry's game is fundamentally problematic to some degree in the playoffs, and I just think he needs to figure some things out. Will he ever have a year as consistently good as '15-16? Nah, but he's already had playoff runs more impressive than that one, and if he can get back to where he was before injury, he'll probably get even better (though more championships are of course no guarantee even then).

I think Bird & Magic displayed some of this, so did Kareem, and probably Wilt too to a degree.

I see your point but none of your examples had a disparity that big. Especially among their regular season performances.

Picking 2011 Nowitzki over 2006 version is, not exactly but, more like picking 2007 Duncan over 2002/2003 Duncan for me, rather than 2009-2013 James. The gap between motors are just too big.

[zonedefense]

I'm curious about realizing 2011 not being Nowitzki's peak would change the arguments going in his favour.

I usually considered 2006 as his peak because his motor in 2011 was way lower. Surely, he had massive impact as usual. In both of my RAPM resources, he had the highest values thanks to his offensive impact. His O-RAPM was top 3 along with Nash and Wade.
In the recent talks about Nowitzki, I keep pointing out his struggles against players like Marion, who tried to limit his movement over his shots (and succeeded), and he didn't have that kind of issue in 2011.

But his performance / production as a whole was not there. The gap between 2006 and 2011 regular seasons are just too much.
2006; 3089 minutes, 28.1 per (#1), 13.5 ows (#1), 0.275 ws/48 (#1), 7.8 obpm (#1), 7.9 vorp (#3)
2011; 2504 minutes, 23.4 per (#10), 7.8 ows (#9), 0.213 ws/48 (#7), 4.3 obpm (#9), 4.5 vorp (#10)

And it wasn't like his impact was not there. #5 in RAPM, #3 among 2400+ minute players after Wade and Duncan. #4 on O-RAPM, top 1% again.

Having a big stretching the floor is very valuable, if that's Nowitzki it is insanely valuable. But that shouldn't make us overlook his rebounding. He was already an OK rebounder, not a particularly good one.
2006; 9.0 reb per game and 12.9 reb per 100 in r. season / 11.7 reb per game and 14.7 reb per 100 in playoffs
2011; 7.0 reb per game and 10.8 reb per 100 in r. season / 8.1 reb per game and 11.5 reb per 100 in playoffs

Looking at his scoring, surely he had a better postseason run in 2011 but his offense as a whole?
2006 playoffs; 27.0 pts per game, 34.0 pts per 100 on .596 ts - 26.8 per, 0.185 ows/48, 7.8 obpm
2011 playoffs; 27.7 pts per game, 39.1 pts per 100 on .609 ts - 25.2 per, 0.158 ows/48, 4.7 obpm

In 2006, his defensive effort was higher, he was more mobile - his lateral quickness was better, he hustled more aggressively.

I feel like this is winning bias...

In 2006 the Mavs had Dampier and Diop playing center and Howard as the only wing that was a good rebounder. Dirk also played a few minutes as the sole big in most games and lead the team in rebounding.
In 2011 he shared the floor with Kidd (among the best rebounding guards of all time) and Marion (great rebounder). With Chandler and Haywood getting all center minutes.

Dirk obviously wasn´t as quick as he used to be but I don´t think raw rebounding numbers are as important as others think. Doesn´t make any sense to compare the offensive rebounding numbers of a guy that was asked to get back in transition to a big that crashed the offensive board.