Odinn21 wrote:Doctor MJ wrote:Odinn21 wrote:I'm curious about realizing 2011 not being Nowitzki's peak would change the arguments going in his favour.
I usually considered 2006 as his peak because his motor in 2011 was way lower. Surely, he had massive impact as usual. In both of my RAPM resources, he had the highest values thanks to his offensive impact. His O-RAPM was top 3 along with Nash and Wade.
In the recent talks about Nowitzki, I keep pointing out his struggles against players like Marion, who tried to limit his movement over his shots (and succeeded), and he didn't have that kind of issue in 2011.
But his performance / production as a whole was not there. The gap between 2006 and 2011 regular seasons are just too much.
2006; 3089 minutes, 28.1 per (#1), 13.5 ows (#1), 0.275 ws/48 (#1), 7.8 obpm (#1), 7.9 vorp (#3)
2011; 2504 minutes, 23.4 per (#10), 7.8 ows (#9), 0.213 ws/48 (#7), 4.3 obpm (#9), 4.5 vorp (#10)
And it wasn't like his impact was not there. #5 in RAPM, #3 among 2400+ minute players after Wade and Duncan. #4 on O-RAPM, top 1% again.
Having a big stretching the floor is very valuable, if that's Nowitzki it is insanely valuable. But that shouldn't make us overlook his rebounding. He was already an OK rebounder, not a particularly good one.
2006; 9.0 reb per game and 12.9 reb per 100 in r. season / 11.7 reb per game and 14.7 reb per 100 in playoffs
2011; 7.0 reb per game and 10.8 reb per 100 in r. season / 8.1 reb per game and 11.5 reb per 100 in playoffs
Looking at his scoring, surely he had a better postseason run in 2011 but his offense as a whole?
2006 playoffs; 27.0 pts per game, 34.0 pts per 100 on .596 ts - 26.8 per, 0.185 ows/48, 7.8 obpm
2011 playoffs; 27.7 pts per game, 39.1 pts per 100 on .609 ts - 25.2 per, 0.158 ows/48, 4.7 obpm
In 2006, his defensive effort was higher, he was more mobile - his lateral quickness was better, he hustled more aggressively.
I feel like this is winning bias...
I think there's a recurring phenomenon of players peaking in regular season impact before they become bullet proof against playoff competition.
I think Dirk in 2011 was more resilient than he was in 2007, and that matters. So to me the debate isn't about younger vs older prime Dirk, but whether 2011 is the precise peak. Winning bias makes us focus there, but to me it's really a question of when he figured things out in the aftermath of 2007.
I think LeBron was at his most valuable in 2009, his more portable in 2013, and his most bullet proof from his success in the 2016 finals onwards.
I think people think that Steph Curry's game is fundamentally problematic to some degree in the playoffs, and I just think he needs to figure some things out. Will he ever have a year as consistently good as '15-16? Nah, but he's already had playoff runs more impressive than that one, and if he can get back to where he was before injury, he'll probably get even better (though more championships are of course no guarantee even then).
I think Bird & Magic displayed some of this, so did Kareem, and probably Wilt too to a degree.
I see your point but none of your examples had a disparity that big. Especially among their regular season performances.
Picking 2011 Nowitzki over 2006 version is, not exactly but, more like picking 2007 Duncan over 2002/2003 Duncan for me, rather than 2009-2013 James. The gap between motors are just too big.
Maybe watch the 2007 series against the Warriors on repeat?

















