General Blue Jays Thread

[vaff87]

Also, if trading for Lindor, which players should be off the table?

[Schad]

What if they only make the trade on the basis of agreeing to an extension first?

There's just about a zero percent chance Lindor agrees to that, though. He really has no incentive unless we're offering an utterly absurd overpay.

[vaff87]

What if they only make the trade on the basis of agreeing to an extension first?

There's just about a zero percent chance Lindor agrees to that, though. He really has no incentive unless we're offering an utterly absurd overpay.

You never know. Mookie Betts was always going to test FA. Then he got to LA, and he signed an extension before he even played. I have to think that pissed off Red Sox fans

[Ado05]

I'd take JBJ at his MLBTR-suggested price (2 years, $16m) in a heartbeat. Guessing his bat recedes to past levels of performance, and you wouldn't want to go much longer on someone whose CF defense is their primary selling point, but that's good value.

Overall, I think this is a much better time to target free agents than to be trading for mega-stars. Money is going to be tight around MLB, but someone like Lindor has every incentive in the world to hit free agency after next season. You would be trading a king's ransom for the right to have exactly as much chance of his services after 2021 as any team.

Not really sure why the Jays (or any team trading for Lindor) would be paying a kings ransom.

[Schad]

Not really sure why the Jays (or any team trading for Lindor) would be paying a kings ransom.

A package equivalent to what the Dodgers gave up for Betts (which people considered light) would be something like Austin Martin and a second-tier prospect. Maybe Martin/SWR even depending on the market. Verdugo was a really well-regarded prospect who had just had a really great debut half-season, and Jeter Downs was another top 100 guy.

[Schad]

You never know. Mookie Betts was always going to test FA. Then he got to LA, and he signed an extension before he even played. I have to think that pissed off Red Sox fans

I mean, the Dodgers did give Mookie $365m to get him to forgo free agency. If we were willing to give Lindor $400m and pay him through age 38 he might sign an extension, but the likelihood that Rogers forks over a 12-year term on a megadeal are infinitesimal.

But at the same time, that deal is likely available in a year's time, too, so it comes down to whether 2021 is our year (very likely not) or we think that having Lindor in 2021 provides some sort of marked advantage in re-signing him (it wouldn't).

[vaff87]

You never know. Mookie Betts was always going to test FA. Then he got to LA, and he signed an extension before he even played. I have to think that pissed off Red Sox fans

I mean, the Dodgers did give Mookie $365m to get him to forgo free agency. If we were willing to give Lindor $400m and pay him through age 38 he might sign an extension, but the likelihood that Rogers forks over a 12-year term on a megadeal are infinitesimal.

But at the same time, that deal is likely available in a year's time, too, so it comes down to whether 2021 is our year (very likely not) or we think that having Lindor in 2021 provides some sort of marked advantage in re-signing him (it wouldn't).

I just read a rumour from some Indians reporter that he heard from two sources, that Lindor is interested in playing for the Jays.

https://www.cleveland.com/tribe/2020/11/tribe-trading-lindor-to-blue-jays-how-about-a-salary-cap-any-outfielders-hey-terry.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true

Your comments reminded me of something I mentioned in a notes column a few weeks ago. I heard Francisco Lindor is interested in playing for the Blue Jays. Two sources, in fact.

Definitely something to take with a grain of salt.

I was assuming that Lindor would get a Betts-like deal anyway.

[Schad]

It's the term length that is probably the nonstarter for us. Lindor's likely to be better value than most megadeals because of his age, but at the same time the back five years of a twelve-year deal are just going to suck. Shortstop range doesn't tend to age that well.

That's fine if you're the Dodgers or the Yankees, but there aren't many other teams willing to take on that sort of monetary risk, even if the front end of the deal ultimately stands a pretty good chance to pay for it.

[vaff87]

It's the term length that is probably the nonstarter for us. Lindor's likely to be better value than most megadeals because of his age, but at the same time the back five years of a twelve-year deal are just going to suck. Shortstop range doesn't tend to age that well.

That's fine if you're the Dodgers or the Yankees, but there aren't many other teams willing to take on that sort of monetary risk, even if the front end of the deal ultimately stands a pretty good chance to pay for it.

I’m not sure it’s the wisest move, I would definitely have some apprehension, but I don’t necessarily think it’s a “nonstarter”. I think the Jays are fully aware they would have to give out a contract like that to get someone like Lindor.

[Schad]

I'm sure the Jays are aware, too...it's why I highly doubt it gets past the tire-kicking stage. I don't foresee us suddenly becoming a team that devotes 15-20% of our payroll for over a decade to a single player.

[The_Hater]

What if they only make the trade on the basis of agreeing to an extension first?

There's just about a zero percent chance Lindor agrees to that, though. He really has no incentive unless we're offering an utterly absurd overpay.

You never know. Mookie Betts was always going to test FA. Then he got to LA, and he signed an extension before he even played. I have to think that pissed off Red Sox fans

It’s really a double edged sword, first you give up assets to acquire him and then you grossly overpay him 1 year early to keep him off the FA market. Reminds me of the Sixers asset/contract management with regards to Tobias Harris.

Just sign DJ to play 2B even if it’s a slight overpay. Then they could afford JBJ to play CF and still have $$$ left over for a SP without moving a single prospect.

[Schad]

Yeah, I agree. If we're looking to swing our (bat) around this offseason, the better value is something like LaMahieu/JBJ/Tanaka.

[The_Hater]

Yeah, I agree. If we're looking to swing our (bat) around this offseason, the better value is something like LaMahieu/JBJ/Tanaka.

Stealing 3 players away from the Yanks/Sox. Now that would send a few heads spinning.

[Ong_dynasty]

Yeah, I agree. If we're looking to swing our (bat) around this offseason, the better value is something like LaMahieu/JBJ/Tanaka.

I thought maybe for short terms i thought bauer and turner? (time for our farm to step up?)

But LaMahieu would be awesome.

[The_Hater]

Hey Schad, what are your thoughts on Kluber, Wainwright, Minor, Archer and Lester? Would you take a run at or completely avoid any of those 5?

[Ado05]

Not really sure why the Jays (or any team trading for Lindor) would be paying a kings ransom.

A package equivalent to what the Dodgers gave up for Betts (which people considered light) would be something like Austin Martin and a second-tier prospect. Maybe Martin/SWR even depending on the market. Verdugo was a really well-regarded prospect who had just had a really great debut half-season, and Jeter Downs was another top 100 guy.

Fair enough. Not really sure Verdugo is equalivent to a top 10 prospect in baseball. But he is a very solid young player.

I was thinking something like Gurriel jr, SWR, and another decent prospect would get it done. Obviously Gurriel isnt the youngest guy, so that may have an impact. If I was confident I could re-sign Lindor I would do that. Theres no real reason to believe the Jays couldn't re-sign him either. But you may be right and it'll take some more for him.

[The_Hater]

Not really sure why the Jays (or any team trading for Lindor) would be paying a kings ransom.

A package equivalent to what the Dodgers gave up for Betts (which people considered light) would be something like Austin Martin and a second-tier prospect. Maybe Martin/SWR even depending on the market. Verdugo was a really well-regarded prospect who had just had a really great debut half-season, and Jeter Downs was another top 100 guy.

Fair enough. Not really sure Verdugo is equalivent to a top 10 prospect in baseball. But he is a very solid young player.

I was thinking something like Gurriel jr, SWR, and another decent prospect would get it done. Obviously Gurriel isnt the youngest guy, so that may have an impact. If I was confident I could re-sign Lindor I would do that. Theres no real reason to believe the Jays couldn't re-sign him either. But you may be right and it'll take some more for him.

But if the Jays want him that badly they can still take a run at him next off season without dealing assets.

I just don’t like 10-12 year contracts. Hate them. All of them. If you’re leery of giving a 30-31 year old a smaller contract that runs to age 34-35, how is paying a 27-28 year old significantly more per annum until age 38-40 a better investment? Even if he does agree to an extension like Betts did, give me both DJ and Springer and I’ll keep the prospects. Heck the Harper and Machado contracts are already looking bad and we’re only 2 seasons in. Then there’s Pujols, Cano, Braun, Tulo, Votto.

[Ado05]

Fair enough. Not really sure Verdugo is equalivent to a top 10 prospect in baseball. But he is a very solid young player.

I was thinking something like Gurriel jr, SWR, and another decent prospect would get it done. Obviously Gurriel isnt the youngest guy, so that may have an impact. If I was confident I could re-sign Lindor I would do that. Theres no real reason to believe the Jays couldn't re-sign him either. But you may be right and it'll take some more for him.

But if the Jays want him that badly they can still take a run at him next off season without dealing assets.

I just don’t like 10-12 year contracts. Hate them. All of them. If you’re leery of giving a 30-31 year old a smaller contract that runs to age 34-35, how is paying a 27-28 year old significantly more per annum until age 38-40 a better investment? Even if he does agree to an extension like Betts did, give me both DJ and Springer and I’ll keep the prospects. Heck the Harper and Machado contracts are already looking bad and we’re only 2 seasons in. Then there’s Pujols, Cano, Braun, Tulo, Votto.

Then you run the risk of not getting him, cause he very well might not get to FA. If you trade for him, at least you'll have a whole year to get it done. And I'm not really sure the negotiation will be that difficult. You know what a guy like is going to get. Its just a question of are you comfortable paying the price.

I could agree that trading for Lindor may not make the most sense right now, because he doesn't push this team over the edge like Betts did for the Dodgers. But also adding a player like him is an opportunity you have to explore if you feel like you could re-sign him, which they do, considering they were looking into him last offseason and Arden Zwelling said that they made an offer for him last offseason.

If you feel like you could win a championship in the next 5-6 years, then I'd be perfectly fine paying the price and dishing out a 10-12 year contract. The only problem for the Jays is that they'd need to do quite a bit more work to make themselves a WS contender, even with Lindor.

Harpers contract looks perfectly fine to me and I dont think San Diego is regretting Machado's contract either.

[polo007]

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[Schad]

Harpers contract looks perfectly fine to me and I dont think San Diego is regretting Machado's contract either.

With super-long deals, they should be better than perfectly fine in the first few years, though...they ought to look like a gross underpay, because Bryce Harper in his age 35-39 seasons is probably going to be $118m of absolute suck.