2020 Draft - Part II

[WizarDynasty]

aFter looking at these combine results and Paul Reed/ Robert Woodard clips, I am loving my initial impressions of Paul Reed. I personally think he is just a slight notch behind Precious and would go in the lottery in most drafts.
Paul Reed and Precious Achiuwa and Robert Woodard. If we walked away from this draft with those two guys, man would our future look nice!
I am kind of ice out on Tillman.

[Shoe]

In any case, my point was altogether different. If you look at players in the league & figure out how good they are, you will find a very weak correlation between quantitatively better & chosen higher in the draft (unless the player was picked #1-3). Nothing Shoe wrote addressed that question in any way.

But the two graphs... using quantitative data... showing a consistent correlation between higher and better...

Pull up elbow jumper off an onball screen, followed by disruptive passing lane potential

I'm most impressed by the way he caught that first pass. He just palmed it right out of the air.

I would look closely at his hip bend. He has big hands which is good. His landing mechanics need some work. His ankles and feet are taking a real pounding based on his landing style.

Patrick Williams seems a bit stiff, looks like he plays a bit upright. But he just turned 19 in August which would mean he was younger than even Beal. He was also an 83% FT shooter and it looks like his jumper can translate. ESPNs Giovny said he can go as high as #4.

[Ruzious]

Finally some measurements here: https://www.nba.com/stats/draft/combine-anthro/?dir=1&sort=STANDING_REACH

Jalen Smith measured better than I thought - not even mentioning his body fat % was 3.7. And Pif's find - Nathan Knight - measured well. Paul Reed measured better than I expected. Isaiah Stewart with a 7'4.75 wingspan! 6'3 Tyrell Terry with only a 6'1.5 wingspan. Someone will definitely give Mamadi Diakite a chance - nice wingspan of 7'4, and he started hitting 3's at UVA.

Xavier Tillman has interesting measurements.

He's just 6-8.5 (in shoes) but has a 7-2 wingspan giving him a respectable standing reach of 8-10. He has HUGE hands. What's noteworthy is that he has lane agility and 3/4 sprint times comparable to the other bigs in his class, but he does so while carrying an extra 30 pounds. He weighs 266. I think a proper NBA training regimen could get him down around 250 and end up making him more mobile than his peers.

Physically, he's bigger, longer, and 25 pounds heavier than Draymond Green as a prospect, but compares similarly on most of the strength/agility tests.

Code: Select all

Player         Green    Tillman
Lane Agility   11.01     11.40
3/4 Sprint      3.40      3.49
Standing Vert   28.0      26.0
Max Vert        33.0      32.5
Height        6'7.50"   6'8.50"     
Wingspan      7'1.25"   7'2.00"
Reach         8'9.00"  8'10.00"
Weight           235       266

And he's really good - both offensively and defensively - on pnr's - even if he isn't the quickest player in the world - he's great on fundamentals. Also, he's done real well in the 3 point shooting drills at the combine. I think he's moved up to the 1st round - and Boston has 2 late 1sts... just sayin. The similarities to Draymond - including their maturity levels and the school - are all there - though Green's quicker. Tillman might be better off getting down to 250 lbs.

[Ruzious]

aFter looking at these combine results and Paul Reed/ Robert Woodard clips, I am loving my initial impressions of Paul Reed. I personally think he is just a slight notch behind Precious and would go in the lottery in most drafts.
Paul Reed and Precious Achiuwa and Robert Woodard. If we walked away from this draft with those two guys, man would our future look nice!
I am kind of ice out on Tillman.

A lot of people seem to like Woodard - I don't. He's a great north/south athlete, but doesn't seem to have much wiggle. Also, what position is he? He doesn't rebound like you want a PF to, and he's not a skilled perimeter guy for a 3. Yeah, he had a great shooting % on 3's, but he didn't take many 3's - that's a red flag, imo. See Derrick Williams. Compare Woodard to Tyler Bey (similar style of prospect), and Bey is farrr superior - even if he's a little smaller/lighter.

[WizarDynasty]

I get alot of Paul George vibes from Paul Reed or maybe its just me.
I just don't see the offensive hip bend in Tillman that I saw in Draymond Green when they both played a michigan but he does show great defensive hip bend at times while moving. Draymond green also had great offensive bend while moving and elite offhand dribble...tillman hasn't achieved this and his game suffers. Draymond Green has always had an elite offhand dribble, just go to Troy Brown thread, but Green shows ultra instinct off hand dribble skills back in michigan.
Woodard is just a scrappy defender with excellent defensive hip bend. I see alot more of the draymond green scappy in him than i do tillman but what makes Draymond green special is that he is doing all this at a weight of 255. It takes exceptional athleticism to carry around that amount of weight and keep deep hip bend both offensively and defensively. I don't see tillman guard powerforward in the post, an does have ultra instinct off hand dribble skills like Draymond at the same point in their college careers.
Paul Reed has that long kevin Durant body frame with great body control for that height. He even shows decent hip bend which you rarely see with guys with 9'2 standing reach. He definitely someone to if available later when we pick or we get a cheap pick.

[queridiculo]

Patrick Williams seems a bit stiff, looks like he plays a bit upright. But he just turned 19 in August which would mean he was younger than even Beal. He was also an 83% FT shooter and it looks like his jumper can translate. ESPNs Giovny said he can go as high as #4.

The way he moves reminds me of Dominique Wilkins.

[queridiculo]

Jalen Smith, I am telling you somebody is going to be ecstatic about adding him to their roster.

He's got a narrow base, so I could see him struggle to bulk up, but the way the game is these days you don't need him being able to bang with big body's all game long.

[Shoe]

Read on Twitter

Schmitz says he'd take Okongwu over Wiseman. If we do somehow get OO I think it's safe to say he's going to have a lot of value even if he has an underwhelming rookie season. If Wall and Beal are still here next year, and we see good improvement from TB, TBJ, Rui - I would not be surprised if in the offseason we package whomever we selected this year with some future firsts to get a star.

[queridiculo]

I'd take Wiseman over Okongwu and not think twice about it

Sure, he's a big unknown, but to me he's also got the highest ceiling out of anybody in this draft.

You never know, somebody in this draft class might emerge as a franchise guy out of nowhere, but right now, I don't see anybody with his potential.

[doclinkin]

In any case, my point was altogether different. If you look at players in the league & figure out how good they are, you will find a very weak correlation between quantitatively better & chosen higher in the draft (unless the player was picked #1-3). Nothing Shoe wrote addressed that question in any way.

But the two graphs... using quantitative data... showing a consistent correlation between higher and better...

I'm most impressed by the way he caught that first pass. He just palmed it right out of the air.

I would look closely at his hip bend. He has big hands which is good. His landing mechanics need some work. His ankles and feet are taking a real pounding based on his landing style.

Patrick Williams seems a bit stiff, looks like he plays a bit upright. But he just turned 19 in August which would mean he was younger than even Beal. He was also an 83% FT shooter and it looks like his jumper can translate. ESPNs Giovny said he can go as high as #4.

Ooof I hope he does go that far up, if so that bumps more talent down to us. Even if O is gone that raises the potential trade offers from teams lower down. I like Williams potential, as you remark on his age his defense looks like it has growth potential, but it will be a while before he is impactful in the NBA. Williams is a prospect that is all about potential, more than results.

[doclinkin]

Read on Twitter

Schmitz says he'd take Okongwu over Wiseman. If we do somehow get OO I think it's safe to say he's going to have a lot of value even if he has an underwhelming rookie season. If Wall and Beal are still here next year, and we see good improvement from TB, TBJ, Rui - I would not be surprised if in the offseason we package whomever we selected this year with some future firsts to get a star.

Moot point, Okongwu is gone before 9. Atlanta trades with someone. We only get him if we are the someone. If we are the someone, zero chance we trade him out. And if by a fluke any mock is correct and he falls to us, he would stick. Nobody trades draftees in the first year. They are devalued then. Ted loves his homegrown picks, and Tommy seems to dial in and invest in guys he liked in the scouting process. Recall he is coming from a scouting side, this is his bread and butter.

[WizarDynasty]

In any case, my point was altogether different. If you look at players in the league & figure out how good they are, you will find a very weak correlation between quantitatively better & chosen higher in the draft (unless the player was picked #1-3). Nothing Shoe wrote addressed that question in any way.

But the two graphs... using quantitative data... showing a consistent correlation between higher and better...

I would look closely at his hip bend. He has big hands which is good. His landing mechanics need some work. His ankles and feet are taking a real pounding based on his landing style.

Patrick Williams seems a bit stiff, looks like he plays a bit upright. But he just turned 19 in August which would mean he was younger than even Beal. He was also an 83% FT shooter and it looks like his jumper can translate. ESPNs Giovny said he can go as high as #4.

Ooof I hope he does go that far up, if so that bumps more talent down to us. Even if O is gone that raises the potential trade offers from teams lower down. I like Williams potential, as you remark on his age his defense looks like it has growth potential, but it will be a while before he is impactful in the NBA. Williams is a prospect that is all about potential, more than results.

Been looking more closely at P. Williams. He does have nice first step, and can shoot off the dribble. His biggest problem is that he can't arch is lower back while dribbling with his hips deeply bent. Because he can't arch his back and stay in deep hip bend, he loses control of his body when dribbling.
If you pay attention, he never has his back arched before rising into his shot. He is always arching his back while in the air. Can this be fixed.
Some players would have no problems adjusting based on there flexibility but if he has really stiff back (herniated disc...or he experiences serious knee problems when attempting to arch his lower back while keeping his hips deeply bent while dribbling low to the ground...then i wouldn't use a lottery pick on him. But if I found that he can do this, and he just hasn't had the right coaching, i would consider him because he has that elite first step.
But my inclination though is to say that his knees can't withstand the pressure of arching his back while dribbling.
that's just a guess.
So remember pretend GM's...always pay attention to the lower back of player while their hips and in a deep bend and they are dribbling. If they can arch their back while deeply hip bending, and quick first step. Watch out!! Especially if they have nice standing reach for their position 8'11 or more.

But if you look at Kawhi, he had the the same issue, stiff lower back before going into his jumper. He showed the ability to arch his back midair... the question was could he do that same arch that he show while in midair...could he maintain that arch posture while dribbling.
You do see nice off hand dribbles skills and stop and go ability while hips were deeply bent. https://youtu.be/BA1GYjD1yHo?t=73

[doclinkin]

maybe its just me.

Man, it's almost always just you.

[WizarDynasty]

Read on Twitter

Schmitz says he'd take Okongwu over Wiseman. If we do somehow get OO I think it's safe to say he's going to have a lot of value even if he has an underwhelming rookie season. If Wall and Beal are still here next year, and we see good improvement from TB, TBJ, Rui - I would not be surprised if in the offseason we package whomever we selected this year with some future firsts to get a star.

Moot point, Okongwu is gone before 9. Atlanta trades with someone. We only get him if we are the someone. If we are the someone, zero chance we trade him out. And if by a fluke any mock is correct and he falls to us, he would stick. Nobody trades draftees in the first year. They are devalued then. Ted loves his picks, and Tommy seems to dial in and invest in guys he liked in the scouting process. Recall he is coming from a scouting side, this is his bread and butter.

Even if someone drafts Okongwu before us, he is still a severely undersized center. He has the bulk but he doesn't have the standing reach to defend a 7 foot center. Whoever gets him, is going to have to transform him into a s/f = p/f and he doesn't have draymond green handles or hip bend yet. You would need a few seasons and gifted coaches to train him with small forward skills in order for him to be dominant and that's at least 3 seasons of work with someone dedicated to him 8 hours a day one on one.

[Shoe]

Read on Twitter

Schmitz says he'd take Okongwu over Wiseman. If we do somehow get OO I think it's safe to say he's going to have a lot of value even if he has an underwhelming rookie season. If Wall and Beal are still here next year, and we see good improvement from TB, TBJ, Rui - I would not be surprised if in the offseason we package whomever we selected this year with some future firsts to get a star.

Moot point, Okongwu is gone before 9. Atlanta trades with someone. We only get him if we are the someone. If we are the someone, zero chance we trade him out. And if by a fluke any mock is correct and he falls to us, he would stick. Nobody trades draftees in the first year. They are devalued then. Ted loves his homegrown picks, and Tommy seems to dial in and invest in guys he liked in the scouting process. Recall he is coming from a scouting side, this is his bread and butter.

After the first year. You could be right but next season is the last of Beal. If Tommy and Ted are all in on trying to keep him then I could see everything being on the table.

[Dark Faze]

I want a wing--either Okoro or Nesmith. I have belief that Okoro can get a lot better. One thing I like about him is how eager he is to drive--but beyond that he has great handle, elite first step, and maybe most importantly he can pass very well. Those things can really help the offense be far less predictable and we need a bulldog personality badly.

I think he can get his 3pt shot to a respectable area. I like the big man depth in the 2nd round and in free agency.

Wall / Smith
Beal / Brown / Matthews
Okoro / Bonga
Rui / Bertans
Bryant / Noel / Paul Reed?

I'm not against a big like Achiuwa or Okongwu, but Bryant is either the guy or he isn't. If he isn't I'd prefer to move him while his value is still high in order to get another first rounder this year and begin development of whoever is drafted.

[WizarDynasty]

I want a wing--either Okoro or Nesmith. I have belief that Okoro can get a lot better. One thing I like about him is how eager he is to drive--but beyond that he has great handle, elite first step, and maybe most importantly he can pass very well. Those things can really help the offense be far less predictable and we need a bulldog personality badly.

I think he can get his 3pt shot to a respectable area. I like the big man depth in the 2nd round and in free agency.

Wall / Smith
Beal / Brown / Matthews
Okoro / Bonga
Rui / Bertans
Bryant / Noel / Paul Reed?

I'm not against a big like Achiuwa or Okongwu, but Bryant is either the guy or he isn't. If he isn't I'd prefer to move him while his value is still high in order to get another first rounder this year and begin development of whoever is drafted.

Okoro is p/g slash s/g. No way can he guard big small forwards or powerforwards in the post and beal (beal is very short for a shooting guard defensively) already doesn't have alot of length to guard 3 pointers on the perimeter. You would need an oversized shooting guard for that to work and Beal is basically an oversized point guard, not an oversized shooting guard. Having Okoro guard 3 point shots on the perimeter, would make our defense even worse.
Nesmith is basically a spot up shooter, like a J.J. Redick. No defense, no ability to draw fouls and finish inside. He definitely can't switch on P/F if.

If we had time to groom Okoro into a shooting guard 3 years...minimum, maybe he can take Beal's spot. Nesmith is a spark bench player offensively like Reddick but he won't help you win on the defensive side, so he has to be amazing offensively. I am not sure that he is. He definitely doesn't have elite length.

[Dark Faze]

He's an SG/SF. Reach isn't everything--90% of defense is effort, being in the right spot, and being quicker to said spot faster than the offensive player, all things which he can excel at.

If you're 6'6 with great lateral speed and great strength then you can guard 3's even with t-rex arms imo.

[nate33]

I want a wing--either Okoro or Nesmith. I have belief that Okoro can get a lot better. One thing I like about him is how eager he is to drive--but beyond that he has great handle, elite first step, and maybe most importantly he can pass very well. Those things can really help the offense be far less predictable and we need a bulldog personality badly.

I think he can get his 3pt shot to a respectable area. I like the big man depth in the 2nd round and in free agency.

Wall / Smith
Beal / Brown / Matthews
Okoro / Bonga
Rui / Bertans
Bryant / Noel / Paul Reed?

I'm not against a big like Achiuwa or Okongwu, but Bryant is either the guy or he isn't. If he isn't I'd prefer to move him while his value is still high in order to get another first rounder this year and begin development of whoever is drafted.

Bryant is a backup center in this league until he learns to defend at a starting-caliber level. And a backup center being paid $8M a year doesn't have much trade value. If Bryant's defense improves so that he's average defensively, then he will become an extremely good player who is a bargain at $8M a year and we won't seek to trade him.

The only way I see Bryant being traded is if Okongwu becomes legitimately as good as Adebayo, leaving less than 16 minutes a game for Bryant. But that's going to take a couple of years, if it happens at all. As long as there are 24+ minutes a night available for Bryant, he's staying.

[WizarDynasty]

He's an SG/SF. Reach isn't everything--90% of defense is effort, being in the right spot, and being quicker to said spot faster than the offensive player, all things which he can excel at.

If you're 6'6 with great lateral speed and great strength then you can guard 3's even with t-rex arms imo.

Defense is about being able to contest a shot without leaving your feet. If you aren't long enough to bother someone shot out on the perimeter, then you are only playing pretend defense.

Yes staying in front of someone helps, but if they can rise and shoot and you aren't long enough to contest, then you are basically relying on the person not having shooting ability. If am drafting a player on their defensive ability, they better have a dimension that can't be taught which is standing reach and excellent defensive movement. I am not drafting a undersized 8'4 standing reach guy to be my full time starter guarding small forwards with a lottery pick. Maybe late in the 1st, but definitely not an entire losing season just to be bring in a guy that doesn't allow me to challenge 3 pointers and post shots without leaving his feet. That's teh real issue with Okoro. He has explosive legs, he just doesn't have that broom for an an arm that you need to throw out at defender without leaving your feet. He is going to have to "always" leave his feet to challenge a shot.
Once you leave your feet, you can't recover.