Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX

[nate33]

If the Wizards could turn Bertans, our lottery pick and Thomas Bryant into Covington and Turner, would you do it?

Wall
Beal
Covington
Hachimura
Turner

That's a potent starting unit.

Valuewise, that seems pretty fair. Covington is a bit better than Bertans, and likely to be a bit cheaper. Turner is a bit better than Bryant, particularly if you assume his dropoff last season was due to him playing out of position so much. Their contracts are reasonable through 2022. And the pick we give up is from a real weak draft.

If we landed Xavier Tillman in the 2nd round, our team would look like this:
PG Wall/Ish
SG Beal/Brown
SF Covington/Brown
PF Hachimura/Bonga
C Turner/Tillman
Bench: Robinson, Schofield, Wagner, maybe a vet PF like Marvin Williams

I'd probably do it. I recognize that the team still isn't elite enough to seriously compete for a championship, but I really don't see that happening in the Beal/Wall era anyhow. At least with this team, we can be relevant and win 47-53 games a year for the remainder of Wall's peak. Then we trade Beal and rebuild.

[pcbothwel]

If the Wizards could turn Bertans, our lottery pick and Thomas Bryant into Covington and Turner, would you do it?

Wall
Beal
Covington
Hachimura
Turner

That's a potent starting unit.

Valuewise, that seems pretty fair. Covington is a bit better than Bertans, and likely to be a bit cheaper. Turner is a bit better than Bryant, particularly if you assume his dropoff last season was due to him playing out of position so much. Their contracts are reasonable through 2022. And the pick we give up is from a real weak draft.

If we landed Xavier Tillman in the 2nd round, our team would look like this:
PG Wall/Ish
SG Beal/Brown
SF Covington/Brown
PF Hachimura/Bonga
C Turner/Tillman
Bench: Robinson, Schofield, Wagner, maybe a vet PF like Marvin Williams

I'd probably do it. I recognize that the team still isn't elite enough to seriously compete for a championship, but I really don't see that happening in the Beal/Wall era anyhow. At least with this team, we can be relevant and win 47-53 games a year for the remainder of Wall's peak. Then we trade Beal and rebuild.

No. ZERO interest in that trade. Bryant is better than Turner, but even if you see them as equal, the fact that Turner makes more than double that of Bryant makes Bryant more valuable.

I agree that Covington is a better player than Bertans, but not by much and is a few years older. So adding in the 9th pick seems ridiculous to me. We get older, more expensive, and not particularly better. Pass

Edit to Add:
TS seems to have zero interest in giving up draft picks or young players. Thank God:

Read on Twitter

[Ruzious]

Edit to Add:
TS seems to have zero interest in giving up draft picks or young players. Thank God:

Read on Twitter

I'm impressed - good to see. Most GM's wouldn't be that transparent.

[nate33]

No. ZERO interest in that trade. Bryant is better than Turner, but even if you see them as equal, the fact that Turner makes more than double that of Bryant makes Bryant more valuable.

I agree that Covington is a better player than Bertans, but not by much and is a few years older. So adding in the 9th pick seems ridiculous to me. We get older, more expensive, and not particularly better. Pass

I'm sorry. I like Bryant a lot, but he is not better than Turner. He may put up better box score stats of offense, but Turner is an infinitely better defender. Centers are typically involved in 40% of defensive possessions, so defense is WAY more important than offense for a center.

There's a reason why Indiana was the #3 ranked defense two years ago and it wasn't Darren Collison and Bojan Bogdanovic
There's a reason why Indiana was the #6 ranked defense last year and it wasn't TJ Warren and Jeremy Lamb.

[nate33]

Edit to Add:
TS seems to have zero interest in giving up draft picks or young players.

I'll note that Myles Turner is 24, just 1 year older than Bryant.

Covington is 2 years older than Bertans, but neither is young enough to expect much continued improvement so their age difference is irrelevant. Neither will experience an age related decline under their current contract.

[Ruzious]

Turner's already played 5 full seasons in the NBA, but he's just 24 - a year and a fraction older than Bryant. There's still some potential improvement to come with his offensive game. For whatever reasons, Indy's never seemed like the perfect fit for him. I think he's the type of player that needs to be involved early in the game on offense to keep his head in the game, and a matured Wall (learning from his daze with Gortat) can make sure that happens. We should definitely consider reasonable offers for him.

[Ed Wood]

I'm more than fine adding Turner to the roster if it can be done with minimal heartache (which I would guess it cannot). He's not a perfect player, but I think he's derided a little unfairly because it was kind of assumed that he was LaMarcus Aldridge and he had to be the bearer of bad news. He is, as has been mentioned, a very effective team defensive player and probably a better fit on Washington's roster than on Indiana's. I would swap out Bryant for him, even though it's hard to argue that you're not losing out in terms of value for salary committed in the process.

I don't quite see a path to acquiring Covington, despite Houston's ongoing effort to turn fully into a pumpkin (or I guess to be clear I don't want to use a pick to do it and I don't know why else it would happen).

[pcbothwel]

Turner's already played 5 full seasons in the NBA, but he's just 24 - a year and a fraction older than Bryant. There's still some potential improvement to come with his offensive game. For whatever reasons, Indy's never seemed like the perfect fit for him. I think he's the type of player that needs to be involved early in the game on offense to keep his head in the game, and a matured Wall (learning from his daze with Gortat) can make sure that happens. We should definitely consider reasonable offers for him.

Why?
Why are we giving some benefit to Turner that we arent to the younger, better, harder working player in Bryant?
Bryant is a better/more efficient scorer overall and is superior or equal to Turner in shooting from everywhere on the floor.
Bryant has better vision/more assist, turns the ball over less, and averages 70%!!! more rebounds (Almost double the offensive rebounds).
Bryant is stronger, longer, and just as athletic... And young bigs ROUTINLEY improve as defenders, but almost never make considerable strides in rebounding and vision/BBIQ.

Bryant is better today, probably will be for his career, and is cheaper. Sorry, not buying more "Upside" with Turner in any way.

[Ruzious]

Turner's already played 5 full seasons in the NBA, but he's just 24 - a year and a fraction older than Bryant. There's still some potential improvement to come with his offensive game. For whatever reasons, Indy's never seemed like the perfect fit for him. I think he's the type of player that needs to be involved early in the game on offense to keep his head in the game, and a matured Wall (learning from his daze with Gortat) can make sure that happens. We should definitely consider reasonable offers for him.

Why?
Why are we giving some benefit to Turner that we arent to the younger, better, harder working player in Bryant?
Bryant is a better/more efficient scorer overall and is superior or equal to Turner in shooting from everywhere on the floor.
Bryant has better vision/more assist, turns the ball over less, and averages 70%!!! more rebounds (Almost double the offensive rebounds).
Bryant is stronger, longer, and just as athletic... And young bigs ROUTINLEY improve as defenders, but almost never make considerable strides in rebounding and vision/BBIQ.

Bryant is better today, probably will be for his career, and is cheaper. Sorry, not buying more "Upside" with Turner in any way.

Why should be obvious by now. We NEED dramatic improvement on defense. One player won't do it, but it starts up front. I'm as big a Bryant fan as you are, but there's no doubt who's the far superior defender. And remember, i didn't say we SHOULD TRADE Bryant, and I voted against the proposed trade. What I said is we should CONSIDER REASONABLE offers for Turner. The reasons have been spelled out.

[pcbothwel]

Turner's already played 5 full seasons in the NBA, but he's just 24 - a year and a fraction older than Bryant. There's still some potential improvement to come with his offensive game. For whatever reasons, Indy's never seemed like the perfect fit for him. I think he's the type of player that needs to be involved early in the game on offense to keep his head in the game, and a matured Wall (learning from his daze with Gortat) can make sure that happens. We should definitely consider reasonable offers for him.

Why?
Why are we giving some benefit to Turner that we arent to the younger, better, harder working player in Bryant?
Bryant is a better/more efficient scorer overall and is superior or equal to Turner in shooting from everywhere on the floor.
Bryant has better vision/more assist, turns the ball over less, and averages 70%!!! more rebounds (Almost double the offensive rebounds).
Bryant is stronger, longer, and just as athletic... And young bigs ROUTINLEY improve as defenders, but almost never make considerable strides in rebounding and vision/BBIQ.

Bryant is better today, probably will be for his career, and is cheaper. Sorry, not buying more "Upside" with Turner in any way.

Why should be obvious by now. We NEED dramatic improvement on defense. One player won't do it, but it starts up front. I'm as big a Bryant fan as you are, but there's no doubt who's the far superior defender. And remember, i didn't say we SHOULD TRADE Bryant, and I voted against the proposed trade. What I said is we should CONSIDER REASONABLE offers for Turner. The reasons have been spelled out.

Sorry Ruz, I cant let you off the hook that easy. We get less productive/efficient, turn the ball over more, and rebound FAR less with Turner instead of Bryant. So you cant look at his defense and look at it as a pure addition.
And now you say you wouldnt trade Bryant for him and only consider Reasonable Offers? What does that look like then? Turner makes 18M/year, so we'd have to trade Bryant, Wall or Beal to even be in the conversation for him.

Lastly, you are overrating Turners defense because of blocks and reputation. He is a good defender, not a great one.
Noel, WCS, Favors, Poeltl... all are equal or better defenders at the 5 that are available for cheaper.

I understand the need for defensive at the 5 spot, but we can do that cheaper than assets + 18M

[Ruzious]

Why?
Why are we giving some benefit to Turner that we arent to the younger, better, harder working player in Bryant?
Bryant is a better/more efficient scorer overall and is superior or equal to Turner in shooting from everywhere on the floor.
Bryant has better vision/more assist, turns the ball over less, and averages 70%!!! more rebounds (Almost double the offensive rebounds).
Bryant is stronger, longer, and just as athletic... And young bigs ROUTINLEY improve as defenders, but almost never make considerable strides in rebounding and vision/BBIQ.

Bryant is better today, probably will be for his career, and is cheaper. Sorry, not buying more "Upside" with Turner in any way.

Why should be obvious by now. We NEED dramatic improvement on defense. One player won't do it, but it starts up front. I'm as big a Bryant fan as you are, but there's no doubt who's the far superior defender. And remember, i didn't say we SHOULD TRADE Bryant, and I voted against the proposed trade. What I said is we should CONSIDER REASONABLE offers for Turner. The reasons have been spelled out.

Sorry Ruz, I cant let you off the hook that easy. We get less productive/efficient, turn the ball over more, and rebound FAR less with Turner instead of Bryant. So you cant look at his defense and look at it as a pure addition.
And now you say you wouldnt trade Bryant for him and only consider Reasonable Offers? What does that look like then? Turner makes 18M/year, so we'd have to trade Bryant, Wall or Beal to even be in the conversation for him.

Lastly, you are overrating Turners defense because of blocks and reputation. He is a good defender, not a great one.
Noel, WCS, Favors, Poeltl... all are equal or better defenders at the 5 that are available for cheaper.

I understand the need for defensive at the 5 spot, but we can do that cheaper than assets + 18M

FTR, you're not listening if I have to keep explaining to you the same thing over and over again, and that irritates me.

I'd be fine with Noel, but my guess is he's going to have a lot of suiters, and he likely prefers the West Coast. We can't just assume we get him just because we want him. WCS is no kind of reasonable answer. Favors is a solid smart veteran, but he's not a good fit in today's NBA. Poeltl would be a nice get, but he's an RFA - why would SA let him get away - considering they got nothing up front except old guys and need to rebuild?

[nate33]

Sorry Ruz, I cant let you off the hook that easy. We get less productive/efficient, turn the ball over more, and rebound FAR less with Turner instead of Bryant. So you cant look at his defense and look at it as a pure addition.

You must be comparing Bryant's numbers to Turner's from last season when Turner played PF (alongside the 6th best rebounder in the league, I might add).

Two years ago, when Turner was the starting center, he averaged 12.3 boards per 100 possessions, compared to Bryant's 13.5 boards per 100 possessions. And in many of those minutes, he still shared the court with Sabonis, who is a rebounding machine.

Bryant is probably a slightly better rebounder than Turner, but it's not a big difference. Put Turner on the floor alongside Hachimura or Bertans, and he'll rebound as well as Bryant did.

FWIW, he are Turner's per 100 possession numbers from 2 years ago relative to Bryant's last year:


Bryant scores much more efficiently because he's way better as a finisher when rolling, but Turner rebounds and passes nearly as well and blocks a TON more shots while getting more steals.

On a team with Wall, Beal and Bertans, Bryant's superiority on offense isn't nearly as valuable as Turner's superiority on defense. There are plenty of other players who can share the offensive load.

[payitforward]

If the Wizards could turn Bertans, our lottery pick and Thomas Bryant into Covington and Turner, would you do it?

Wall
Beal
Covington
Hachimura
Turner

That's a potent starting unit.

I wouldn't do that trade. & I certainly do not agree that the above is "a potent starting unit."

For one thing, at this point in his career, Covington is closer to a 4 than to a 3. I don't begin to think he could start at the 3.

So just think of it as minutes: Covington would take Bertans's minutes. The problem is that Bertans is at least as good as Covington, probably better. Plus, he's also 2 years younger than him.

Then there's Myles Turner. Who just had a really bad season. After having a bad season the previous year. & who will make $18m this year, next year, & the following year.

I'm happy to stipulate that Myles Turner is a better defender than Thomas Bryant. For one thing, he blocks 67% more shots than Bryant. For another, he gets 20% more steals than Bryant. I am sure you regard those numbers as indicative of superiority over Bryant in his play -- at least in those areas -- right? & I agree.

Along the same lines, however, Thomas Bryant is a better defensive rebounder -- in fact, his superiority there comfortably counter-balances Turner's superiority in blocked shots.

& this is where the picture changes altogether: for every 2 more steals that Turner gets over Bryant, Bryant gets 18 more offensive rebounds than Turner. Yes, you read that right.

Then there's the fact that Thomas Bryant scores 30% more points than Myles Turner. & he scores them waaaay more efficiently too. Bryant shot almost 63% from the floor last year (efg%) -- a bit down from the 64.8% of the previous year. Turner shot 53% (as he did the previous year as well).

Myles Turner was better his 2d year than his rookie year. He hasn't improved since then. If anything, he got worse this year. Thomas Bryant is 16 months younger than Turner. He also makes $8m not $18m.

Bryant also shot almost 41% on 3PAs this year. Every one of you intones with certainty how important it is to shoot the 3 well, how important spacing is.

Here's the thing. Overall Thomas Bryant is already a better player than Myles Turner. Plus, & this is really key, Thomas Bryant is still developing.

Bryant is better despite the fact that Turner is a better defender. I don't care how good a defender you are, you can't make up for 30% more points on much higher efficiency combined with far greater impact on actual control of the ball.

Think about it -- if you do something to keep the ball out of your opponent's hands you have just had the equivalent of a perfect defensive possession. Duh. But, it shows up nowhere in your defensive numbers. It's not counted in the mystery meat formulas that say with almost perfect meaninglessness who is or isn't a good defender.

So, no, let's not get older, more expensive & worse by turning Davis Bertans & Thomas Bryant into Robert Covington & Myles Turner.

[payitforward]

If the Wizards could turn Bertans, our lottery pick and Thomas Bryant into Covington and Turner, would you do it?....

Valuewise, that seems pretty fair. ...

No. ZERO interest in that trade.

Whew!

Bryant is better than Turner, but even if you see them as equal, the fact that Turner makes more than double that of Bryant makes Bryant more valuable.

I agree that Covington is a better player than Bertans, but not by much and is a few years older. So adding in the 9th pick seems ridiculous to me. We get older, more expensive, and not particularly better. Pass.

The 2 guys were virtually equal this year. Bertans being younger -- & actually still getting better it seems! -- is decisive.

I'm not all that excited about Davis, but Covington is a guy we need not at all!

Edit to Add:
TS seems to have zero interest in giving up draft picks or young players. Thank God:

Read on Twitter

IMO, those words by Tommy Sheppard are the single most important thing he's ever said.

[payitforward]

Sorry Ruz, I cant let you off the hook that easy. We get less productive/efficient, turn the ball over more, and rebound FAR less with Turner instead of Bryant. So you cant look at his defense and look at it as a pure addition.

You must be comparing Bryant's numbers to Turner's from last season when Turner played PF (alongside the 6th best rebounder in the league, I might add).

Two years ago, when Turner was the starting center, he averaged 12.3 boards per 100 possessions, compared to Bryant's 13.5 boards per 100 possessions. And in many of those minutes, he still shared the court with Sabonis, who is a rebounding machine.

Bryant is probably a slightly better rebounder than Turner, but it's not a big difference. Put Turner on the floor alongside Hachimura or Bertans, and he'll rebound as well as Bryant did.

FWIW, he are Turner's per 100 possession numbers from 2 years ago relative to Bryant's last year:


Bryant scores much more efficiently because he's way better as a finisher when rolling, but Turner rebounds and passes nearly as well and blocks a TON more shots while getting more steals.

On a team with Wall, Beal and Bertans, Bryant's superiority on offense isn't nearly as valuable as Turner's superiority on defense. There are plenty of other players who can share the offensive load.

This has the feel of a developing flame war (& who better than I to pass the jerry can? ). I've had as much of that as I need this week, so I'm going to lay a bucket water next to the flames for whoever wants to pick it up.

Games are played in minutes not in set #s of possessions. Per minutes played this year, Thomas Bryant got 30% more rebounds than Turner. Offensive boards? Make that 78% more. Yes, you read that right. In 2018-19 Bryant got 22% more boards than Turner.

Nor can you simply cherry pick Turner's best rebounding year either. Over his first 3 years he averaged .4 more boards per 40 minutes than this year. He's not a good rebounder. Case closed. He is also below average in assists -- not that C's need to get lots of them, but if you are below average at a basketball activity it is meaningful. Just the way his being above average on blocks & not turning the ball over are also meaningful.

Trading for a guy going into his 6th year because you think he's going to get better...? I am guessing that has a pretty poor record historically.

Finally, there's no such thing as "share the load." If you replace a player who gets more rebounds with one who gets fewer of them, then the team gets fewer rebounds. Period. & it's also true that if you put a better defender on the floor, the team gets more defense.

Turner is good at defense. It just isn't enough to make him as good as Bryant. &, therefore, it certainly isn't enough to make him worth 2.25 times as much money!

[nate33]

Games may be played in minutes, but opportunities to get rebounds are proportional to possessions. Slower paced teams have fewer rebounding opportunities. That doesn't mean their players are worse rebounders.

And I'm not cherry-picking Turner's best year. I'm logically accounting for the fact that centers get more rebounds than forwards. When Turner plays center, he rebounds nearly as well as Bryant.

[Ruzious]

Let's put it this way. If this conversation were going on in the Trade Board, every non-Zards fan would laugh one point of view out of the forum. I'm not saying they're right, but that is the way it is - and they aren't all stupid.

[penbeast0]

The 2 guys were virtually equal this year. Bertans being younger -- & actually still getting better it seems! -- is decisive.

I'm not all that excited about Davis, but Covington is a guy we need not at all!

Bertrans and Covington may have similar value but they don't have that similar a skill set; I'm talking of course about defense. The Wiz have scorers, they are badly short on defenders unless Bonga suddenly turns into a legit NBA starter and then they are just pretty short on defenders. Covington is supposedly a defensive specialist. We need defense.

If the Wiz think Wall is legitimately back so we aren't rebuilding and that Turner and Covington for Bryant and Bertrans (and the #9) will give us a good defensive team, they should leap at this despite the age, offense (and maybe rebounding) downgrade. Are those two defensive difference makers is the question you have to ask?

[Ruzious]

Another thing about Covington - he's always among the NBA leaders in Deflections. Only politicians get more than he does. <rimshot> Last season, he was 8th in the NBA, the previous 2 seasons - he was 2nd both times, and the season before that - he was 1st. I guess you could call that a downward trend, but I'd call it a defender who disrupts offenses. https://www.nba.com/stats/players/hustle/?sort=DEFLECTIONS&dir=1

[payitforward]

Games may be played in minutes, but opportunities to get rebounds are proportional to possessions. Slower paced teams have fewer rebounding opportunities. That doesn't mean their players are worse rebounders....

Fair enough. & it's not just a matter of pace, since not every possession yields an opportunity to get a rebound. After all, there are no rebounds on made shots, so how well teams shoot matters too. For example, a team that shot 100% would get zero offensive rebounds -- because... it had zero offensive rebounding opportunities!

Other factors must figure in as well. E.g. the more a team fouls the more the opponent goes to the line, which would mean fewer defensive rebounding opportunities -- & fewer defensive rebounds.

In the end, however, the number of "rebounding opportunities" in a game must equal the number of total rebounds by both teams in that game. That is, if there was a rebound, there was a rebounding opportunity. & if there was a rebounding opportunity, then someone got a rebound -- except in rare circumstances we can safely ignore (e.g. someone had a rebounding opportunity, got his hands on the ball, but the ball slipped away & went out of bounds before he got possession).

This year, Pacers' games averaged a total of 88 rebounds by both teams. Wizards games averaged a total of 88.2 rebounds by both teams. I.e., there is a difference -- .2 more rebounding opportunities in a Pacers game. Make of it what you can!

And I'm not cherry-picking Turner's best year. I'm logically accounting for the fact that centers get more rebounds than forwards. When Turner plays center, he rebounds nearly as well as Bryant.

Well, first off, I don't think one can single out that year as "when Turner plays Center." It's true that as a rookie, with Mahinmi & Jordan Hill eating up most of the minutes at C, Turner spent more than half his time at the 4. He averaged 9.7 rebounds per 40 minutes. But, in his 2d year, he started at Center & averaged 9.25 rebounds per 40 minutes.

His 3d year, the first with Sabonis on the team --> 9.08 boards per 40 minutes. His 4th year, the one you cite, his rebounding increased some --> 10 rebounds per 40 minutes -- his best results. Just like the preceding year, Sabonis is on the team. & he is again this year yet now Turner drops to his worst figure yet --> 8.92 boards/40 minutes.

I.e. He & Sabonis are both playing lots of minutes when Turner rebounds the most & when he rebounds the least.

Truth is, Turner has mostly played Center in his career. But even if 2018-19 had been the only year he played Center, so that we're only looking at his very best rebounding year, Bryant averaged 12.2 rebounds per 40 minutes -- 22% more than Turner's 10. So...

When Turner plays center, he rebounds nearly as well as Bryant.

...still doesn't hold up.

TBH, I think pretty often we (you, me, all of us) start by deciding who we think is good, who's better than whom, & only then do we try to make the numbers support that position. If there were no names attached, if it was just player A & player B, no one would be tempted to think that there was any ambiguity at all about who the better player is.

Then, looking away from the numbers, you'd have to consider factors that aren't captured there in a straightforward way. Spacing. Defense. No way they close the gap.