2020 Draft - Part II

[payitforward]

at guy with 9'2 standing reach, elite lateral quickness, and high motor is normally gone with the top five picks of the draft. ...Achiuwa ... I don't think he will be there at 14, which is why Boston is trying to move down. ...To me, if Achiuwa is there at 9, there is no way I am risking losing Pippen, because I want to look fancy, and show everyone how shrewd a GM I am....

I don't agree with you about where he's likely to be drafted, but... who knows? & I certainly understand the last sentence just above.

But this...

...Most of these picks after the pick 20 are almost certain to not even be in the NBA after 5 years....

...simply isn't true. At least not in this draft.

Moreover, let's start at 14 ,not 20, since it's the trade with Boston you bring up. As I have pointed out, there have been better players available at #14 than the guy who was taken #9 in all but 3 of the last 20 drafts.

& if

... This draft is like ...the Giannis draft...

...then we should definitely trade our #9 for Boston's #14, 26 & 47 this year, since if we'd been able to trade those picks in 2013, we could have come away with Giannis, Rudy Gobert & James Ennis instead of the guy who was taken #9. Trey Burke.

We should even do it if this draft is like 2011 when an extremely good player went #9 (Kemba Walker) -- After all, had that trade been possible we'd have been able to take Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler & IT.

Or it it's like 2012 -- (Draymond, Middleton & O'Quinn instead of Drummond).
Or 2014 -- Nurkic & Capela instead of Noah Vonleh.

Or 2015, or 2016, or 2017 or 2018 or... well, you get the point: that's a good to great trade in pretty much every draft in the last 20 years.

[DCZards]

He has elite athleticism and a great motor. Those are the two things you can't teach. You just don't see many guys that big and tall with that much agility, strength and balance. I love how he rebounds outside of his area. He's also nearly ambidextrous, finishing with either hand easily. I posted a highlight a few weeks ago of him making a 3/4 court pass with his left hand.

He is certainly very raw, but part of that is explained by him coming to basketball at a late age. He grew up in Nigeria and never picked up a basketball until 8th grade. And although he has a fairly low shooting percentage, his shooting form isn't broken. Ultimately he has one of the higher upsides of anyone in this draft. I don't think I'd take him at #9, but if we trade down to #14, I like him.

All of this assumes his personality markers and work ethic check out. Obviously, if he is a lazy bum who doesn't like practice, then nevermind.

You seem to like Achiuwa a LOT but you say you don't think you'd draft him at #9. Why not? Who would you draft at 9 rather than Achiuwa?

Of those players that might be available at 9, the only ones I'm taking over Precious are Okongwu and, maybe, Okoro.

[WizarDynasty]

at guy with 9'2 standing reach, elite lateral quickness, and high motor is normally gone with the top five picks of the draft. ...Achiuwa ... I don't think he will be there at 14, which is why Boston is trying to move down. ...To me, if Achiuwa is there at 9, there is no way I am risking losing Pippen, because I want to look fancy, and show everyone how shrewd a GM I am....

I don't agree with you about where he's likely to be drafted, but... who knows? & I certainly understand the last sentence just above.

But this...

...Most of these picks after the pick 20 are almost certain to not even be in the NBA after 5 years....

...simply isn't true. At least not in this draft.

Moreover, let's start at 14 ,not 20, since it's the trade with Boston you bring up. As I have pointed out, there have been better players available at #14 than the guy who was taken #9 in all but 3 of the last 20 drafts.

& if

... This draft is like ...the Giannis draft...

...then we should definitely trade our #9 for Boston's #14, 26 & 47 this year, since if we'd been able to trade those picks in 2013, we could have come away with Giannis, Rudy Gobert & James Ennis instead of the guy who was taken #9. Trey Burke.

We should even do it if this draft is like 2011 when an extremely good player went #9 (Kemba Walker) -- After all, had that trade been possible we'd have been able to take Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler & IT.

Or it it's like 2012 -- (Draymond, Middleton & O'Quinn instead of Drummond).
Or 2014 -- Nurkic & Capela instead of Noah Vonleh.

Or 2015, or 2016, or 2017 or 2018 or... well, you get the point: that's a good to great trade in pretty much every draft in the last 20 years.

you remind of the days when i use to think singleton was better than leonard.
Post#107 » by WizarDynasty » Tue Jun 7, 2011 7:58 pm

watching leonard in the open court dribbling the ball full speed, he looks very clumsy and shows a very weak handle. Watching his jumpshots, he looks very stiff and doesn't have the coordination to alter his shot with a hand in his face. He also doesn't show alot of coordination when he is in the air.

There is a significant difference in strength between singleton and leonard. Singleton is 10 times better match up with lebron, carmelo, paul pierce, joe johnson due to his strength. He also creates spacing because he has a fluid three point shot and singleton also gevts alot of height on his three point shot. Leonard barely gets off the ground shooting his shot which makes it alot easier to guard.
Singleton, although stiff shows alot more toughness than leonard and has the body type to mix up. Leonard is probably better guard finese small forwards like a Kevin Durant but will easily get over powered by lebron, carmelo, johnson, pierce, stephen jackson. Also singleton already has a reputation as a lockdown defender and will be able to get away with alot more physical contact because of his reputation than the avereage s/f.

Leonard is probably better s/f for other teams, but for the wizards singleton is the better prospect. we lack toughness at s/f spot and rashard knee issues aren' going away. Singleton fills a huge void that we have been searching for with the booker pick from last year. Singleton is what we wished booker was.

But over time we evolve and understand what we missed. Leonard was grabbed just before us and we thought he was going to slide to us based on mock drafts, so we picked singleton instead. We drafted Vesely at 5 because espn mock had him high ranked just like they have Avdija.

My advice is to go back to 2011 washington draft.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/746714-2011-nba-draft-results-grading-the-washington-wizards-draft-picks
Jan Vesely, Lithuania, 1st Round, Sixth Overall Pick
1 OF 4
The Wizards were looking to improve their front court with this pick, and did just that with Jan Vesely. Known as a high-flying, hustle player, Vesely's size and style of play are ideal for the pace John Wall sets on fast breaks and on offense.

While he is not a household name, and will come to the NBA with the same concern surrounding most international players, Vesely has a solid foundation of skills to contribute right away and grow into a mor complete player.

Washington had to make up its mind between Vesely and Kawhi Leonard, who had been rumored to be a favorite prospect of the Wizards. It came down to the overall package, and while Leonard is an excellent rebounder and sound defender, the Wizards needed offense and hustle.

If Vesely can successfully transition his game to the NBA, he could be an exciting wing for Washington. However, he needs to improve as a rebounder and develop consistency on offense instead of relying on putbacks, fast break dunks.

Grade: B

Achiuwa is Leonard in this draft. The guys you are looking at are the others in 2011. Onyeka is Tristan Thompsom 2.0. Chris Singleton is Patrick Williams.
Irving - anthony edwards
wiseman is derrick williams
kanter- obi
okoro- brandon knight
ok not everything lines up perfectly but we have been down this path. Moral of story is to pick elite defensive guy with length, fluid, and explosive first step. Tristan Thompson while good, was probably a mistake.
https://www.nbadraft.net/actual-draft/?year-mock=2011

D.williams is

[DCZards]

...simply isn't true. At least not in this draft.

Moreover, let's start at 14 ,not 20, since it's the trade with Boston you bring up. As I have pointed out, there have been better players available at #14 than the guy who was taken #9 in all but 3 of the last 20 drafts.

& if

... This draft is like ...the Giannis draft...

...then we should definitely trade our #9 for Boston's #14, 26 & 47 this year, since if we'd been able to trade those picks in 2013, we could have come away with Giannis, Rudy Gobert & James Ennis instead of the guy who was taken #9. Trey Burke.

We should even do it if this draft is like 2011 when an extremely good player went #9 (Kemba Walker) -- After all, had that trade been possible we'd have been able to take Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler & IT.

Or it it's like 2012 -- (Draymond, Middleton & O'Quinn instead of Drummond).
Or 2014 -- Nurkic & Capela instead of Noah Vonleh.

Or 2015, or 2016, or 2017 or 2018 or... well, you get the point: that's a good to great trade in pretty much every draft in the last 20 years.

PIF, it's not hard to look back and find drafts where good (or even great) players were passed over for mediocre or average players.

However, isn't it just as likely that #9 turns out to be an all-star and the 3 players you pick at, say, 14, 26 & 47 turn out to be one decent player and 2 guys who turn out to be average or below average players?

Drafts are held in real time--and not in hindsight--and having the foresight to come away with, say, Giannis, Gobert & Ennis in the same draft is easier said than done.

For the record, I'm not opposed to trading down. In fact, I like the idea. But I'm not as confident of getting the perfect storm of players with those additional picks as you are.

[payitforward]

Zards -- you are right of course. GMs are notably unable to sequence picks by actual "goodness" -- as revealed later by how players actually perform in the league.

But, in fact this is a big part of why I like to trade down, rather than being evidence against the practice. The same inaccuracy that will plague a GM at #14 will plague him at #9 -- after all, that is why better players are so often available further down in the draft.

Effectively, what this illustrates is that "chance" is an integral part of the draft. & that leads me to the other main plus of drafting down: any time chance is involved in an activity, you'd like an extra shot at it. If I get two tries to hit the green with a 6 iron, I'm more likely to do it. If I have 2 chances to flip a coin, I'm more likely to get heads at least once. If I have two picks in R1, I'm more likely to get a good player.

Okongwu, Achuiwa, Okoro -- any 1, 2 or all 3 of these guys may turn out great. Or turn out busts. Or somewhere in between. The odds of any #9 pick being better than the #14 pick aren't high. If I get the #26 along with the #14 it's a plus in my book.

Obviously, if I see a player who I think is head and shoulders better than anyone else, & is also almost certain to be picked before the pick I'd be trading down to, then... don't do it! Take the guy. But, that is rarely the case. We'd have been a whole lot better off trading down last year, & winding up with Clarke & Thybulle, than picking Rui (which doesn't mean I am a "Rui hater" or even that he can't turn out to be an outstanding player -- he can). Boston traded down in '17 & did well.

Who knows what we'll do.... But, we will get a chance to see how kids drafted next week turn out, & that will tell us a lot.

[Shoe]

...trade 26 + 30 + 37 for 20 and take Josh Green....

First off, that's way more than one would have to give. Certainly 26 & 30 would buy 20 -- even that seems a little high. 26 & 37 is marginal to get 20 but it might work. But... I don't see the value you see in moving up from those picks.

Of course, this is all pretty speculative, since we don't actually have those picks! But, for one thing, there's a strong possibility that Josh Green will be there at #26. & if he's not, let's assume for a moment that we would be able to pick 3 of the following 6 guys with #26, 30 & 37: Bane, Tillman, Tyler Bey, Malachi Flynn, Paul Reed & Daniel Oturu.

If my intuition is correct, you like this in part b/c you think we only need (or can absorb, or... something) 2 rookies. Am I right?

I can't figure out why you think that, since we have a total of 9 players with guaranteed contracts, & 3 of them are Admiral Schofield, Jerome Robinson & Moritz Wagner, while a 4th is the expiring Ish Smith.

Very young roster with our GM just this week saying we need more veterans. Shortened season shrinks our draftees chances to unseat rotation players, in turn hurts their chance to prove worthy of their options being exercised or of new contracts for round 2 guys. By the time those decisions need to be made we will have drafted a couple of new players. I'm sure right now those prospects seem like all stars compared to Robinson, Wagner, Schofield. Reality is undersized front court players and 23 year Olds don't have the best nba track record. Other reality is if they are better it could be a few years before they show it.

On the other hand, Achiuwa and Green can get minutes day one. They provide a jolt of defense. Can compliment our offensive players. Easier to focus our player development.

[doclinkin]

On the other hand, Achiuwa ... can get minutes day one.

This I don't know about. Defensive players take a bit to adjust to the professional game. They tend to rack fouls and bite on pump fakes and pro offenses are designed to stymie defense in ways they haven't experienced yet. For players who are still learning the game, it takes a bit for things to slow down. Achiuwa succeeded in college on pure athleticism and effort. Here he might get minutes because we have no one else who plays defense, but he won't be actually good at it for a while. It seems like he learns quickly, and did well despite being thrown into the fire when Wiseman ruled himself out, but in the NBA all nights are fire. It can be disheartening. If you are picking Precious, you are picking him for upside, not instant impact. He is still learning what he can and can't do. Learning quickly, and his physical ability makes it possible -- makes possible things that would be impossible for many other players-- but the nuance will likely elude him for a while.

Contrast with a player like Josh Green, who out of the gate plays with an understanding of fundamentals. Both his parents were basketball players. He came to the US to prep for basketball, even transferred to attend high school at the IMG basketball academy. He understands pro defense and has seen the standard offensive sets. He understands how to use a scouting report. His game will translate quicker than most.

[nate33]

On the other hand, Achiuwa ... can get minutes day one.

This I don't know about. Defensive players take a bit to adjust to the professional game. They tend to rack fouls and bite on pump fakes and pro offenses are designed to stymie defense in ways they haven't experienced yet. For players who are still learning the game, it takes a bit for things to slow down. Achiuwa succeeded in college on pure athleticism and effort. Here he might get minutes because we have no one else who plays defense, but he won't be actually good at it for a while. It seems like he learns quickly, and did well despite being thrown into the fire when Wiseman ruled himself out, but in the NBA all nights are fire. It can be disheartening. If you are picking Precious, you are picking him for upside, not instant impact. He is still learning what he can and can't do. Learning quickly, and his physical ability makes it possible -- makes possible things that would be impossible for many other players-- but the nuance will likely elude him for a while.

I agree with doc. Even though I like Achiuwa a lot, he is definitely a project and probably won't be of much help in his first year. It's one of the reasons I'm loathe to draft him at #9. Sheppard wants talent for the future, but he also wants some immediate help. If we trade down to #14 + #26, we can draft Achiuwa as a future prospect, and then find a more seasoned, instant impact guy at #26 (Tillman, Bey, Flynn, etc.)

[nate33]

Washington had to make up its mind between Vesely and Kawhi Leonard, who had been rumored to be a favorite prospect of the Wizards. It came down to the overall package, and while Leonard is an excellent rebounder and sound defender, the Wizards needed offense and hustle.

Revisionist history. I don't recall any rumor that the Wizards were interested in Leonard. The main rumor at the time was that the Wizards really wanted Kanter.

[Dat2U]

At #9, I'm looking at Okongwu, Hayes or Haliburton if one of them fall.

Guys I'd pass on:

Toppin (lack of defense/lack need for a PF)
Avdija (too many similarities to Jan Vesely - being drafted as a non-shooting wing who also will likely have to play the 4)
Okoro (non-shooting wing)
Vassell (limited on-the-ball skill Weak, Weak frame and passivity)

Guys I'd consider at 9 if the above guys are gone or in a trade down to #14:

1. Aaron Nesmith
2. Precious Achiuwa
3. R.J. Hampton
4. Saddiq Bey

Guys I'd consider in the late 1st round/early 2nd:

1. Malachi Flynn
2. Desmond Bane
3. Vernon Carey Jr
4. Xavier Tillman
5. Cassius Stanley

Guys I'd consider later in the 2nd round

1. Jaden McDaniels
2. Cassius Winston
3. Payton Pritchard
4. Grant Riller
5. Sam Merrill
6. Udoka Azubuike

[Shoe]

On the other hand, Achiuwa ... can get minutes day one.

This I don't know about... Here he might get minutes because we have no one else who plays defense

So in other words he can get minutes day one. Achiuwa would get his opportunities in practice and in game because he defends/rebounds. Rookies usually aren't good players so you balance production with development. It's probably moot as Wizards aren't getting Green and unlikely to draft Achiuwa.

[nate33]

At #9, I'm looking at Okongwu, Hayes or Haliburton if one of them fall.

Guys I'd pass on:

Toppin (lack of defense/lack need for a PF)
Avdija (too many similarities to Jan Vesely - being drafted as a non-shooting wing who also will likely have to play the 4)
Okoro (non-shooting wing)
Vassell (limited on-the-ball skill Weak, Weak frame and passivity)

Guys I'd consider at 9 if the above guys are gone or in a trade down to #14:

1. Aaron Nesmith
2. Precious Achiuwa
3. R.J. Hampton
4. Saddiq Bey

Guys I'd consider in the late 1st round/early 2nd:

1. Malachi Flynn
2. Desmond Bane
3. Vernon Carey Jr
4. Xavier Tillman
5. Cassius Stanley

Guys I'd consider later in the 2nd round

1. Jaden McDaniels
2. Cassius Winston
3. Payton Pritchard
4. Grant Riller
5. Sam Merrill
6. Udoka Azubuike

That's a very good list. If this was the Wizards' strategy, I'd be pretty happy. My only minor point of contention is that I might take Okoro. I'd like to know his measurements. Is he really just Brad Beal sized, or is he a bit bigger?

What do you think of Nate Hinton as a 2nd round pickup - particularly if we buy a late pick (not use the #37 on him)?

[doclinkin]

Avdija (too many similarities to Jan Vesely )

How?

Veseley was drafted for his dunking skill and athleticism. (I believe in the maxim that you never draft the 'athletic' white dude, or the player who is giant because of a disease). Avdija is in the mocks because of his precocious passing game and because pundits are always looking for the 'next' version of last couple years' breakout player (Doncic in this case, besides the next Bam). Avdija isn't Doncic and I do think he will fall, and I wouldnt take him at 9, but his game is a bit more than jump and dunk. He has some skills to fall back on and his understanding of the game is advanced for his age. He also seem significantly more toughminded than Veseley.

As to the rest of your list. I think the team would take Toppin if he fell. Though he won't. Of all players he is one who will pretty instantly translate to the NBA. Yeah his selection would be a little bit "defense schmefense!" for now, but Anthony Grant has him well trained in high level understanding of NBA sets. I think he will pick up team defensive concepts quicker than many. Mike Schmidtz of ESPN said of all the guys he interviewed, Toppin is the one who was eager to geek out in the minutia of what he was seeing on the floor, using NBA terms and eager to break down both his successes and flaws in the game. Grant had him playing as a small ball center all season, so he may have some skills he was not asked to use. Yeah he has an odd body type, but the kid loves the game. That enthusiasm will find success. I'd have fun cheering for him. But yeah, moot point, if we trade up it's not for him, and he won't fall. Still if we had a chance to draft him, I'd snatch it and save the price or re-signing Bertans for other holes in the roster. I love that kid. Too much fun.

[payitforward]

...trade 26 + 30 + 37 for 20 and take Josh Green....

First off, that's way more than one would have to give. Certainly 26 & 30 would buy 20 -- even that seems a little high. 26 & 37 is marginal to get 20 but it might work. But... I don't see the value you see in moving up from those picks.

Of course, this is all pretty speculative, since we don't actually have those picks! But, for one thing, there's a strong possibility that Josh Green will be there at #26. & if he's not, let's assume for a moment that we would be able to pick 3 of the following 6 guys with #26, 30 & 37: Bane, Tillman, Tyler Bey, Malachi Flynn, Paul Reed & Daniel Oturu.

If my intuition is correct, you like this in part b/c you think we only need (or can absorb, or... something) 2 rookies. Am I right?

I can't figure out why you think that, since we have a total of 9 players with guaranteed contracts, & 3 of them are Admiral Schofield, Jerome Robinson & Moritz Wagner, while a 4th is the expiring Ish Smith.

Very young roster with our GM just this week saying we need more veterans. Shortened season shrinks our draftees chances to unseat rotation players, in turn hurts their chance to prove worthy of their options being exercised or of new contracts for round 2 guys. By the time those decisions need to be made we will have drafted a couple of new players. I'm sure right now those prospects seem like all stars compared to Robinson, Wagner, Schofield. Reality is undersized front court players and 23 year Olds don't have the best nba track record. Other reality is if they are better it could be a few years before they show it.

On the other hand, Achiuwa and Green can get minutes day one. They provide a jolt of defense. Can compliment our offensive players. Easier to focus our player development.

As I was saying the other day, sometimes in life we become convinced of something, sure, & then when challenged... that's when we start coming up with reasons it might be true.

I do this, you do this, everybody does this. I'll probably do it today, either here or in some other context.

That's what your post above feels like to me. Some of it might turn out to be true, of course. But, then, there could also be benefits, surprises, positivity, to doing what I suggested -- which might or might not cost us a chance at Josh Green. &, a chance at Josh Green might or might not be a positive thing.

Just to pick one of your explanatory points: neither you nor I knows whether either Precious A. or Josh G. "can get minutes day one." In the case of Green especially, he's extremely young, & he did not put up outstanding numbers against college competition this year. Why would I think that as a rookie he could stay on the floor against grown men in the NBA?

For that matter, why wouldn't I think that Nate Hinton would find it easier than Green to stay on the floor as an NBA rookie? (No, I'm not suggesting that Hinton is a better prospect than Green)

As far as that goes, I'll be very surprised if Josh Green is as good a rookie (not "as good long-term") as Xavier Tillman.

Anyway, I think Josh Green will be on the board at #26 if you must must must have him (another draft-related mistake is going all in on any particular player).

&, finally, "compliment" should be "complement" -- unless you are suggesting Precious & Josh are particularly polite players.

[payitforward]

At #9, I'm looking at Okongwu, Hayes or Haliburton if one of them fall.

Guys I'd pass on:

Toppin (lack of defense/lack need for a PF)
Avdija (too many similarities to Jan Vesely - being drafted as a non-shooting wing who also will likely have to play the 4)
Okoro (non-shooting wing)
Vassell (limited on-the-ball skill Weak, Weak frame and passivity)

Guys I'd consider at 9 if the above guys are gone or in a trade down to #14:

1. Aaron Nesmith
2. Precious Achiuwa
3. R.J. Hampton
4. Saddiq Bey

Guys I'd consider in the late 1st round/early 2nd:

1. Malachi Flynn
2. Desmond Bane
3. Vernon Carey Jr
4. Xavier Tillman
5. Cassius Stanley

Guys I'd consider later in the 2nd round

1. Jaden McDaniels
2. Cassius Winston
3. Payton Pritchard
4. Grant Riller
5. Sam Merrill
6. Udoka Azubuike

Without agreeing point-by-point, this seems an extremely sensible breakdown. Except... have you cooled on Okongwu? Shouldn't he be on your "at #9" list? Plus, I don't understand why neither Paul Reed nor Nate Hinton is anywhere on these lists.

I see your "at #9" list to mean "if it was simply impossible to find a trade down that was a fair exchange," expecially since it's almost 100% certain that if all those guys are on the board @#9, one of those guys will be on the board at #14.

[doclinkin]

At #9, I'm looking at Okongwu, Hayes or Haliburton if one of them fall.

have you cooled on Okongwu? Shouldn't he be on your "at #9" list?

While we are busy correcting each other

[Dat2U]

At #9, I'm looking at Okongwu, Hayes or Haliburton if one of them fall.

Guys I'd pass on:

Toppin (lack of defense/lack need for a PF)
Avdija (too many similarities to Jan Vesely - being drafted as a non-shooting wing who also will likely have to play the 4)
Okoro (non-shooting wing)
Vassell (limited on-the-ball skill Weak, Weak frame and passivity)

Guys I'd consider at 9 if the above guys are gone or in a trade down to #14:

1. Aaron Nesmith
2. Precious Achiuwa
3. R.J. Hampton
4. Saddiq Bey

Guys I'd consider in the late 1st round/early 2nd:

1. Malachi Flynn
2. Desmond Bane
3. Vernon Carey Jr
4. Xavier Tillman
5. Cassius Stanley

Guys I'd consider later in the 2nd round

1. Jaden McDaniels
2. Cassius Winston
3. Payton Pritchard
4. Grant Riller
5. Sam Merrill
6. Udoka Azubuike

That's a very good list. If this was the Wizards' strategy, I'd be pretty happy. My only minor point of contention is that I might take Okoro. I'd like to know his measurements. Is he really just Brad Beal sized, or is he a bit bigger?

What do you think of Nate Hinton as a 2nd round pickup - particularly if we buy a late pick (not use the #37 on him)?

Ugh I keep forgetting Nate Hinton lol. Yes I'd put him below Grant Riller and above Sam Merrill.

[Ed Wood]

Vassell at 9 is probably high from a value relative to the perception of the league standpoint, but if we're working from the baseline that we're making a pick later in the first he seems much better than a don't-draft grade to me. He's certainly very physically different than Okoro, but he's sort of actually what Okoro is proposed to be from a current-ability standpoint. He looks to grade out as a respectable shooter and is possibly the best off-ball defender in the draft. I understand that projection is obviously a large part of the decision making process when making choices about invariably very young players, but it behooves you to give special credit to a player who's actually already good at doing the things we wishcast other players into doing at a high level.

e: Riller deserves better than that as well I think - he's older and you can reasonably knock him somewhat based on the quality of his competition, but the kind of stuff that tends to be assumed of scoring guards from small conferences really doesn't stick to him. Everything suggests he's athletic enough to hang and that he shouldn't be reduced to a pure perimeter roll in the NBA. I like Flynn as well, but I group both of them into the same basket as Dotson and kind of Kira Lewis as guards who are kind of rated more poorly than I think is warranted. Tyrese Maxey is in that neighborhood as well, but he looks likely to be a mid-first round pick whereas all four of the former group seem like they might fall into the second round, which feels a little low for all of them.

[Dat2U]

Avdija (too many similarities to Jan Vesely )

How?

Veseley was drafted for his dunking skill and athleticism. (I believe in the maxim that you never draft the 'athletic' white dude, or the player who is giant because of a disease). Avdija is in the mocks because of his precocious passing game and because pundits are always looking for the 'next' version of last couple years' breakout player (Doncic in this case, besides the next Bam). Avidaj isn't Doncic and I do think he will fall, and I wouldnt take him at 9, but his game is a bit more than jump and dunk. He has some skills to fall back on and his understanding of the game is advanced for his age. He also seem significantly more toughminded than Veseley.

As to the rest of your list. I think the team would take Toppin if he fell. Though he won't. Of all players he is one who will pretty instantly translate to the NBA. Yeah his selection would be a little bit "defense schmefense!" for now, but Anthony Grant has him well trained in high level understanding of NBA sets. I think he will pick up team defensive concepts quicker than many. Mike Schmidtz of ESPN said of all the guys he interviewed, Toppin is the one who was eager to geek out in the minutia of what he was seeing on the floor, using NBA terms and eager to break down both his successes and flaws in the game. Grant had him playing as a small ball center all season, so he may have some skills he was not asked to use. Yeah he has an odd body type, but the kid loves the game. That enthusiasm will find success. I'd have fun cheering for him. But yeah, moot point, if we trade up it's not for him, and he won't fall. Still if we had a chance to draft him, I'd snatch it and save the price or re-signing Bertans for other holes in the roster. I love that kid. Too much fun.

How does Avdija score at the next level? The shot needs alot of work. He's poor Ft shooter. I don't see him taking guys off the dribble and getting all the way to the rim. He's not unskilled but he leaves me wanting more from a SF. I can't see putting him at 3 with his current shooting skill. Can he defend 4s and rebound well enough? I just have too many questions.

Toppin is more of a fit thing. I can see scenario where he's like an Antwan Jamison, productive offensively to keep him on the floor despite being a disaster defensively but I'm not interested in drafting a big that will likely never be an average defender.

[Dat2U]

At #9, I'm looking at Okongwu, Hayes or Haliburton if one of them fall.

Guys I'd pass on:

Toppin (lack of defense/lack need for a PF)
Avdija (too many similarities to Jan Vesely - being drafted as a non-shooting wing who also will likely have to play the 4)
Okoro (non-shooting wing)
Vassell (limited on-the-ball skill Weak, Weak frame and passivity)

Guys I'd consider at 9 if the above guys are gone or in a trade down to #14:

1. Aaron Nesmith
2. Precious Achiuwa
3. R.J. Hampton
4. Saddiq Bey

Guys I'd consider in the late 1st round/early 2nd:

1. Malachi Flynn
2. Desmond Bane
3. Vernon Carey Jr
4. Xavier Tillman
5. Cassius Stanley

Guys I'd consider later in the 2nd round

1. Jaden McDaniels
2. Cassius Winston
3. Payton Pritchard
4. Grant Riller
5. Sam Merrill
6. Udoka Azubuike

Without agreeing point-by-point, this seems an extremely sensible breakdown. Except... have you cooled on Okongwu? Shouldn't he be on your "at #9" list? Plus, I don't understand why neither Paul Reed nor Nate Hinton is anywhere on these lists.

I see your "at #9" list to mean "if it was simply impossible to find a trade down that was a fair exchange," expecially since it's almost 100% certain that if all those guys are on the board @#9, one of those guys will be on the board at #14.

If Adebayo, Haliburton or Hayes are gone at 9 I'd be open to trading down, but if not available I'd be selecting from Nesmith, Achiuwa or Hampton at 9.

I dont buy the Adebayo comparisons and Okongwu will never be Adebayo offensively but defensively he's probably the best at the C position in the draft. I would not trade up for him but I would likely draft him at 9 if he's available.

This isn't a complete list. Paul Reed is just outside the list of guys I would select in a trade down at #14

Nate Hinton was accidently omitted and deserves 2nd round consideration.