2020 Draft - Part II

[doclinkin]

How does Avdija score at the next level? The shot needs alot of work. He's poor Ft shooter. I don't see him taking guys off the dribble and getting all the way to the rim. He's not unskilled but he leaves me wanting more from a SF. I can't see putting him at 3 with his current shooting skill. Can he defend 4s and rebound well enough? I just have too many questions.

I pretty much agree on Avdija. I just see no comparison to Veseley.

Toppin is more of a fit thing. I can see scenario where he's like an Antwan Jamison, productive offensively to keep him on the floor despite being a disaster defensively but I'm not interested in drafting a big that will likely never be an average defender.

You'd rather pay Bertans $17m a year for it.

I think Toppin has the ability to improve to a better defender than Bertans. And while Bertans has incredible speed and accuracy with the 3fg, making for a great target for Wall, and adding space, I feel like Toppin with his ~40% 3FG and solid screen setting skill could approximate much of that while adding the vertical passing lanes of the back door lob threat dunk. I don't see us contending for a chip in the Wall Beal era, so adding a high level offensive player would at least add spark. Marginal upgrades in defense put us in the middle of the pack, but high level offense gets us credibility, TV time, and a trade chip if a disgruntled star is curious about playing here. Offense retains value after the draft.

But. Yeah. He would replace minutes of Rui or Bertans though, which the front office is probably not about, and he won't fall, so moot point anyway. Still, he's going to be fun wherever he ends up.

[DCZards]

At #9, I'm looking at Okongwu, Hayes or Haliburton if one of them fall.

Guys I'd pass on:

Toppin (lack of defense/lack need for a PF)
Avdija (too many similarities to Jan Vesely - being drafted as a non-shooting wing who also will likely have to play the 4)
Okoro (non-shooting wing)
Vassell (limited on-the-ball skill Weak, Weak frame and passivity)

Guys I'd consider at 9 if the above guys are gone or in a trade down to #14:

1. Aaron Nesmith
2. Precious Achiuwa
3. R.J. Hampton
4. Saddiq Bey

Guys I'd consider in the late 1st round/early 2nd:

1. Malachi Flynn
2. Desmond Bane
3. Vernon Carey Jr
4. Xavier Tillman
5. Cassius Stanley

Guys I'd consider later in the 2nd round

1. Jaden McDaniels
2. Cassius Winston
3. Payton Pritchard
4. Grant Riller
5. Sam Merrill
6. Udoka Azubuike

I have Okoro in the group of players that the Zards should take at 9. I'd also be fine with Haliburton or Achiuwa at 9. Okongwu is the guy I really want at 9 tho. I rank S. Bey ahead of Nesmith. I love Bey's potential as a 3&D guy.

I've come around with you on Vassell, primarily because of his weak-looking body, but I'd grab Toppin if he's there at 9, assuming Okongwu is gone.

I watched the ESPN NBA Mock Draft Special last night it had Okoro going to the Hawks at 6 and Okongwu going to the Zards at #9. Kendall Perkins made a case for the Zards to draft RJ Hampton, who he's high on.

I like Tillman and Cassius Stanley... as well as the other Cassius from Mich. St. Drafting Azubuike might also turn out to be a smart move.

What's your thoughts on Daniel Oturu as a second rounder, especially if the Zards can buy another pick in that round?

[Shoe]

First off, that's way more than one would have to give. Certainly 26 & 30 would buy 20 -- even that seems a little high. 26 & 37 is marginal to get 20 but it might work. But... I don't see the value you see in moving up from those picks.

Of course, this is all pretty speculative, since we don't actually have those picks! But, for one thing, there's a strong possibility that Josh Green will be there at #26. & if he's not, let's assume for a moment that we would be able to pick 3 of the following 6 guys with #26, 30 & 37: Bane, Tillman, Tyler Bey, Malachi Flynn, Paul Reed & Daniel Oturu.

If my intuition is correct, you like this in part b/c you think we only need (or can absorb, or... something) 2 rookies. Am I right?

I can't figure out why you think that, since we have a total of 9 players with guaranteed contracts, & 3 of them are Admiral Schofield, Jerome Robinson & Moritz Wagner, while a 4th is the expiring Ish Smith.

Very young roster with our GM just this week saying we need more veterans. Shortened season shrinks our draftees chances to unseat rotation players, in turn hurts their chance to prove worthy of their options being exercised or of new contracts for round 2 guys. By the time those decisions need to be made we will have drafted a couple of new players. I'm sure right now those prospects seem like all stars compared to Robinson, Wagner, Schofield. Reality is undersized front court players and 23 year Olds don't have the best nba track record. Other reality is if they are better it could be a few years before they show it.

On the other hand, Achiuwa and Green can get minutes day one. They provide a jolt of defense. Can compliment our offensive players. Easier to focus our player development.

As I was saying the other day, sometimes in life we become convinced of something, sure, & then when challenged... that's when we start coming up with reasons it might be true.

I do this, you do this, everybody does this. I'll probably do it today, either here or in some other context.

That's what your post above feels like to me. Some of it might turn out to be true, of course. But, then, there could also be benefits, surprises, positivity, to doing what I suggested -- which might or might not cost us a chance at Josh Green. &, a chance at Josh Green might or might not be a positive thing.

Just to pick one of your explanatory points: neither you nor I knows whether either Precious A. or Josh G. "can get minutes day one." In the case of Green especially, he's extremely young, & he did not put up outstanding numbers against college competition this year. Why would I think that as a rookie he could stay on the floor against grown men in the NBA?

For that matter, why wouldn't I think that Nate Hinton would find it easier than Green to stay on the floor as an NBA rookie? (No, I'm not suggesting that Hinton is a better prospect than Green)

As far as that goes, I'll be very surprised if Josh Green is as good a rookie (not "as good long-term") as Xavier Tillman.

Anyway, I think Josh Green will be on the board at #26 if you must must must have him (another draft-related mistake is going all in on any particular player).

&, finally, "compliment" should be "complement" -- unless you are suggesting Precious & Josh are particularly polite players.

Yes Green and Achiuwa can end up busts I'm not disputing that. I just don't think college box scores matter when drafting players.

Why take turnover machine Jaylen Brown - 15/6/2, 29% from three, 65%FT, 3 TOV per game, 52TS%, 18 PER

when you could trade down and get both

a star in Denzel Valentine - 19/8/8, 44% from three on 8 attempts per game , 85%FT, 61TS%, 30 PER
and
an extremely productive big like Brice Johnson - 18/10/2 with 2 blocks per game, 79%FT, 65TS%, 33 PER

Or why take a bad player in Zach LaVine - 9/2, 37% from three, 69%FT, 15 PER

when you can trade down and take both

sure thing Adreian Payne - 16/7, 42% from three, 78%FT, 25 PER
and
Lavines better teammate Jordan Adams - 17/5, 36% from three, 84%FT, 28 PER

Or why take one Donovan Mitchell - 15/6, 53 TS%, 22 PER- when you can trade down and get two really good bigs Caleb Swanigan - 19/13, 62TS%, 28 PER - and freshman Tony Bradley - per 36: 18/13, obscene 19% ORB rate, 28 PER

Also why would anyone stand pat and take Andre Drummond - 10/8, 51TS%, 30%FT, 22 PER - when they can trade down and pick up two actual good players like Tyler Zeller - 16/10, 62TS%, 81%FT, 30 PER - and Jared Sullinger - 18/9, 59TS%, 78%FT, 30 PER.

As it turns out running fast and jumping high is important in the NBA, and really productive college big men get lost in the wash routinely.

[prime1time]

How does Avdija score at the next level? The shot needs alot of work. He's poor Ft shooter. I don't see him taking guys off the dribble and getting all the way to the rim. He's not unskilled but he leaves me wanting more from a SF. I can't see putting him at 3 with his current shooting skill. Can he defend 4s and rebound well enough? I just have too many questions.

I pretty much agree on Avdija. I just see no comparison to Veseley.

Toppin is more of a fit thing. I can see scenario where he's like an Antwan Jamison, productive offensively to keep him on the floor despite being a disaster defensively but I'm not interested in drafting a big that will likely never be an average defender.

You'd rather pay Bertans $17m a year for it.

I think Toppin has the ability to improve to a better defender than Bertans. And while Bertans has incredible speed and accuracy with the 3fg, making for a great target for Wall, and adding space, I feel like Toppin with his ~40% 3FG and solid screen setting skill could approximate much of that while adding the vertical passing lanes of the back door lob threat dunk. I don't see us contending for a chip in the Wall Beal era, so adding a high level offensive player would at least add spark. Marginal upgrades in defense put us in the middle of the pack, but high level offense gets us credibility, TV time, and a trade chip if a disgruntled star is curious about playing here. Offense retains value after the draft.

But. Yeah. He would replace minutes of Rui or Bertans though, which the front office is probably not about, and he won't fall, so moot point anyway. Still, he's going to be fun wherever he ends up.

There’s no comp between Toppin and Bertans unless you project Toppin as an elite 3-shooter. They do such different things. If I have to choose between the two I’m taking Bertans. Elite 3-point shooters don’t grow on trees.

[Dat2U]

How does Avdija score at the next level? The shot needs alot of work. He's poor Ft shooter. I don't see him taking guys off the dribble and getting all the way to the rim. He's not unskilled but he leaves me wanting more from a SF. I can't see putting him at 3 with his current shooting skill. Can he defend 4s and rebound well enough? I just have too many questions.

I pretty much agree on Avdija. I just see no comparison to Veseley.

Toppin is more of a fit thing. I can see scenario where he's like an Antwan Jamison, productive offensively to keep him on the floor despite being a disaster defensively but I'm not interested in drafting a big that will likely never be an average defender.

You'd rather pay Bertans $17m a year for it.

I think Toppin has the ability to improve to a better defender than Bertans. And while Bertans has incredible speed and accuracy with the 3fg, making for a great target for Wall, and adding space, I feel like Toppin with his ~40% 3FG and solid screen setting skill could approximate much of that while adding the vertical passing lanes of the back door lob threat dunk. I don't see us contending for a chip in the Wall Beal era, so adding a high level offensive player would at least add spark. Marginal upgrades in defense put us in the middle of the pack, but high level offense gets us credibility, TV time, and a trade chip if a disgruntled star is curious about playing here. Offense retains value after the draft.

But. Yeah. He would replace minutes of Rui or Bertans though, which the front office is probably not about, and he won't fall, so moot point anyway. Still, he's going to be fun wherever he ends up.

Vesely was a better athlete and got miscast as a SF but alot of scouts. Remember he didn't become a complete non-shooter until he got to DC. Like Avdija, it needed alot of work but he was willing to take and make a few prior to being drafted. He was the high level role player and who got some Andrei Kirilenko comparisons lol.

Obviously in retrospect he was completely unskilled and wilted in the failure to adjust to a new country and better talent. Avdija can clearly do more with the ball in his hands up to a point but like Vesely the questions about the transition to the NBA are the exact same.

I feel like Obi Toppin is a guy who could make me eat my words .Simply b/c as you say, he's got a very nice shooting stroke and is vertical threat/highlight reel who likely gain notoriety for his finishing ability. He also seems to be a high IQ, high character guy by all accounts. I was just taken aback by the stuff I saw on film. And as I've previously noted, I've just never seen a guy like him with such a dramatic difference b/w their straight line athleticism / ability to get vertical versus their lateral movement. He seems like he's an anomaly. It felt like I was watching an athletic marvel on one end and a complete stiff on the other. I just really don't know what to think when it comes to him.

[payitforward]

Ok. So, really, it's Okongwu, Haliburton or Hayes. If they're not there, trade down (to 14 by default...). If no trade is possible, then it's one of Nesmith, Achiuwa, Hampton or S. Bey.

If we trade down to 14, pick 1 of the above if available. &, in fact, it's almost impossible to imagine that all 4 would be gone. If, somehow, they all are, then Paul Reed in a fall-back.

That trade down would have brought us (presumably) 2 late-R1 picks. We'd pick 2 of Reed, Flynn, Bane, Carey, Tillman, Stanley.

@ #37, we'd pick whoever was still around from any of the lists above, or...?

A few notable names missing from your lists: Jalen Smith, Isaiah Stewart, Poku, Nnaji, Green, Maxey, T. Bey, Daniel Oturu. Do they fit anywhere?

If that Boston trade happens, it looks to me like we might walk away with Achiuwa, Reed, Flynn & one of the guys left on your list (Tillman, Stanley, T. Bey, Carey)

We don't have a later R2 pick, but if we wind up with one, say by flipping Wagner for it, & we come away with Achiuwa, Reed, Flynn, Tillman & Nate Hinton.... that would be amazing. I would immediately buy out Schofield. Make Hinton a 2-way player & keep Garrison Mathews there as well. Re-sign Bertans if possible, & sign someone for the MLE -- WC-S perhaps?

[doclinkin]

There’s no comp between Toppin and Bertans unless you project Toppin as an elite 3-shooter. They do such different things. If I have to choose between the two I’m taking Bertans. Elite 3-point shooters don’t grow on trees.

Nor do efficient and high usage outside inside scorers like Obi.

Search for players with a >25% usage rating and a True Shooting% .680 or better. 10 games minimum. Sort by Box Score +/-.
You get Zion Williamson, Brandon Clarke, Kyrie Irving, Azubuike and a couple others before you get to Toppin #7.

The comparison is: Bertans is a remarkably efficient scorer in the one thing he does. Toppin is a highly efficient scorer in a couple ways; elite interior finishing off of screens and rolls and cuts -- all skills that translate to the NBA-- and solid outside shooting, albeit on only 3 shots a game. Both make the team a more efficient scoring engine. Both provide options for the PG, neither is noted as a top defender, though per 100 possessions Toppin averages 2 steals and 2 blocks, about double what Bertans has shown. I feel like Toppin's defensive upside is higher than he has shown, based on his intangibles and athleticism. But either way we are talking about 2 efficient scorers who play the same position, neither is noted as a defender.

Difference is one will be paid a rookie scale, the other will command a decent sized chunk of the cap. If you can get similar production, and if it were a choice, why not draft the one for cheap, then sign and trade the other for another player at a different position of need.

[doclinkin]

I feel like Obi Toppin is a guy who could make me eat my words .Simply b/c as you say, he's got a very nice shooting stroke and is vertical threat/highlight reel who likely gain notoriety for his finishing ability. He also seems to be a high IQ, high character guy by all accounts. I was just taken aback by the stuff I saw on film. And as I've previously noted, I've just never seen a guy like him with such a dramatic difference b/w their straight line athleticism / ability to get vertical versus their lateral movement. He seems like he's an anomaly. It felt like I was watching an athletic marvel on one end and a complete stiff on the other. I just really don't know what to think when it comes to him.

He needs to work his legs and laterality, but if Troy Brown can do it, then Obi can. Still a few times in the season you could see flashes of what kind of defense he might be able to play with those spring launched legs and super long arms and good hands. As a weakside shot blocker he is a plus. A few times in his college career he would turn a block into a steal and breakaway dunk. These are things you didn't see in Jamison, to borrow your comparison. On the other hand, yeah he doesn't rebound like Jamison either, so, hey. I'm not saying he's the best guy in the draft, I'm just saying I like the player. Seems like a nice guy and is fun to watch do the thing he does well. Even here with 2 guys ahead of him I suspect he would contend for a starting spot, which, yeah, isn't saying much. But still, compared to Rui, he does the exact opposite thing: sets picks and finishes off rolls, shoots outside shots, scores off motion without needing to pound the ball, makes smart cuts to get himself open. He knows the game, shorter learning curve.

[Ed Wood]

I just don't think college box scores matter when drafting players...

As it turns out running fast and jumping high is important in the NBA, and really productive college big men get lost in the wash routinely.

There's a kernel of trenchant observation here - which is that I think teams are better equipped to identify talent in projects and are also more adept at cultivating that talent than they used to be. Taking that and blowing it up into the idea that prior play and essentially the actual present ability of a player shouldn't matter when assessing that player as a draft candidate is... well kind of obviously silly.

I don't even know how to go about showing that the examples there are kind of cherry-picked in a way that can make a neat point essentially to prove anything. I guess the inverse would be to ask why a team shouldn't have traded down to pick players who were bad and drafted later and continued to be bad, but that feels kind of less showy and kind of mean.

Like - Jamal Murray had a strong one season of college against strong competition - graded as an effective offensive player and a sound defender. Wouldn't it be better, then, to trade down for the pair of Henry Ellenson, who was a decent college player but evinced some offensive flaws that suggested he wasn't necessarily either going to be an effective perimeter shooter or a strong interior player, and Malachi Richardson, who was kind of just bad in college but was a highly rated recruit and included in various high school showcases.

Why did you chose to make a case for Donovan Mitchell - who was actually a good college player as a sophomore and who notably improved as that year went on and was really excellent in ACC conference play (123.7 ORtg, 100.5 DRtg) - rather than for Dennis Smith - who was peripherally similar to Mitchell in a lot of ways (similarly regarded recruit, same conference)? I assume it's because Mitchell has done well in the NBA and Smith hasn't. Smith was notably less effective in college over that same year - especially as a defender - but I guess he was worse so that makes him better for your metrics (?). It's kind of hard to reframe things when the guiding directive is just that actual performance doesn't bear on things.

How about Jaren Jackson - he was a really excellent college player, albeit in limited minutes. He was super efficient offensively, evinced a solid foundation for a perimeter game, and was a really tremendous defender. Kevin Knox wasn't a very good college player en route to being (to date) not a very good NBA player, so I guess we prefer him under this regime (or the two are interchangeable?).

So, that's all to say that it's certainly true that it shouldn't be taken as a given that the best college players are invariably the best pros, or that players can't develop in a way that isn't evident in their college body of work (and often that the small sample from college just doesn't perfectly represent even the present reality for players who come out early). That's also why statistical assessment of prospects isn't just a matter of looking at who was the most valuable at the college level. See e.g. using free throw percentage as a short hand for projecting the reasonable likelihood of improving as an overall perimeter shooter (kind of a "touch" metric), or the use of steal and block rates as a stand-in for functional athleticism. That's also why I (and I imagine people who are much better at this than I am) filter a lot of my assessment through the baseline of the players that scouts view as worth considering at a certain point in the draft. A holistic approach best serves the value to each element of assessment.

[Ed Wood]

I am not a huge fan of Toppin, though I similarly just am not excited to draft him towards the top of the draft rather than at all. I will say of him as opposed to Rui, who I was also not especially a fan of, his college success is essentially in line with a player who generates a modern NBA offensive bouquet of shots. Rui drew praise for a set of skills that tend to attach adjectives like "savvy" and "smart" from observers but are not actually especially either from a value-added perspective.

[prime1time]

There’s no comp between Toppin and Bertans unless you project Toppin as an elite 3-shooter. They do such different things. If I have to choose between the two I’m taking Bertans. Elite 3-point shooters don’t grow on trees.

Nor do efficient and high usage outside inside scorers like Obi.

Search for players with a >25% usage rating and a True Shooting% .680 or better. 10 games minimum. Sort by Box Score +/-.
You get Zion Williamson, Brandon Clarke, Kyrie Irving, Azubuike and a couple others before you get to Toppin #7.

The comparison is: Bertans is a remarkably efficient scorer in the one thing he does. Toppin is a highly efficient scorer in a couple ways; elite interior finishing off of screens and rolls and cuts -- all skills that translate to the NBA-- and solid outside shooting, albeit on only 3 shots a game. Both make the team a more efficient scoring engine. Both provide options for the PG, neither is noted as a top defender, though per 100 possessions Toppin averages 2 steals and 2 blocks, about double what Bertans has shown. I feel like Toppin's defensive upside is higher than he has shown, based on his intangibles and athleticism. But either way we are talking about 2 efficient scorers who play the same position, neither is noted as a defender.

Difference is one will be paid a rookie scale, the other will command a decent sized chunk of the cap. If you can get similar production, and if it were a choice, why not draft the one for cheap, then sign and trade the other for another player at a different position of need.

How efficient Toppin is important but irrelevant. He did that in college not the NBA. Also, you have to factor in floor spacing. I remember people talking about how efficient Thomas Bryant was in college. He’s a better comp to me than Bertans. High volume 3-point shooters are in their own category imo.

Look at the players that you listed. Do any of those players remind you of Bertans? Other than. Kyrie they are guys who score a bunch of easy 2’s. You’re better off comparing to Brandon Clarke imo.

[prime1time]

I am not a huge fan of Toppin, though I similarly just am not excited to draft him towards the top of the draft rather than at all. I will say of him as opposed to Rui, who I was also not especially a fan of, his college success is essentially in line with a player who generates a modern NBA offensive bouquet of shots. Rui drew praise for a set of skills that tend to attach adjectives like "savvy" and "smart" from observers but are not actually especially either from a value-added perspective.

I don’t understand your last sentence. Do you care to rephrase?

*I think many people pointed out that Rui has a unique combination of skills and he had only just started playing basketball. So we were hoping that he could be a “late bloomer.” I would also point out that nothing that happened in Rui’s first year did anything to disavow those notions.

[payitforward]

As I was saying the other day, sometimes in life we become convinced of something, sure, & then when challenged... that's when we start coming up with reasons it might be true.

I do this, you do this, everybody does this. I'll probably do it today, either here or in some other context.

That's what your post above feels like to me. Some of it might turn out to be true, of course. But, then, there could also be benefits, surprises, positivity, to doing what I suggested -- which might or might not cost us a chance at Josh Green. &, a chance at Josh Green might or might not be a positive thing.

Just to pick one of your explanatory points: neither you nor I knows whether either Precious A. or Josh G. "can get minutes day one." In the case of Green especially, he's extremely young, & he did not put up outstanding numbers against college competition this year. Why would I think that as a rookie he could stay on the floor against grown men in the NBA?

For that matter, why wouldn't I think that Nate Hinton would find it easier than Green to stay on the floor as an NBA rookie? (No, I'm not suggesting that Hinton is a better prospect than Green)

As far as that goes, I'll be very surprised if Josh Green is as good a rookie (not "as good long-term") as Xavier Tillman.

Anyway, I think Josh Green will be on the board at #26 if you must must must have him (another draft-related mistake is going all in on any particular player).

&, finally, "compliment" should be "complement" -- unless you are suggesting Precious & Josh are particularly polite players.

Yes Green and Achiuwa can end up busts I'm not disputing that. I just don't think college box scores matter when drafting players.

Why take turnover machine Jaylen Brown - 15/6/2, 29% from three, 65%FT, 3 TOV per game, 52TS%, 18 PER when you could trade down and get both a star in Denzel Valentine - 19/8/8, 44% from three on 8 attempts per game , 85%FT, 61TS%, 30 PER
and an extremely productive big like Brice Johnson - 18/10/2 with 2 blocks per game, 79%FT, 65TS%, 33 PER

Or why take a bad player in Zach LaVine - 9/2, 37% from three, 69%FT, 15 PER when you can trade down and take both sure thing Adreian Payne - 16/7, 42% from three, 78%FT, 25 PER and Lavines better teammate Jordan Adams - 17/5, 36% from three, 84%FT, 28 PER

Or why take one Donovan Mitchell - 15/6, 53 TS%, 22 PER- when you can trade down and get two really good bigs Caleb Swanigan - 19/13, 62TS%, 28 PER - and freshman Tony Bradley - per 36: 18/13, obscene 19% ORB rate, 28 PER

Also why would anyone stand pat and take Andre Drummond - 10/8, 51TS%, 30%FT, 22 PER - when they can trade down and pick up two actual good players like Tyler Zeller - 16/10, 62TS%, 81%FT, 30 PER - and Jared Sullinger - 18/9, 59TS%, 78%FT, 30 PER....

-- Oh Shoe.... Why do you insist when you know you've got an impossible task?

Obviously, you can prove any point if you get to cherry pick the examples! Do you want me to do what you just did? Sure, why not...?

How about instead of Jaylen Brown, we move down a pick? Let's trade Dragan Bender for Damontas Sabonis, Pascal Siakam, & Malcolm Brogdon?

Whaddya think?

But, that's just one draft, picked at random. How about your Drummond example in 2012? Again, let's move down a pick & trade the #10, which brought Austin Rivers: hmmm... what can we get back using Pelton's chart as a rough guide?

Oh wow, Shoe... do you realize that in 2012 you could have traded that pick & gotten back the picks used to collect Tomas Satoransky, Jae Crowder, Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Will Barton, Mike Scott & Kyle O'Quinn?

Or would it be better to take Austin Rivers?

Better yet, imagine it was the #5 pick you were trading -- the one used to take epic bust Thomas Robinson -- why you'd get all those players plus the #15 pick in the following year's draft (who was that I wonder...? ...Oh yeah.... ).

Plus, these examples aren't even outrageous. I mean... imagine it's 2011, & I have the #2 pick in the draft. I'm going to take phenom Derrick Williams, as you know. But, ...somebody slips me a mushroom & a smoke as the draft is about to begin, & somehow I just feel generous.

So I give the second pick in the draft to one of my brethren GMs so he can take DW -- no strings attached. But, because he insists -- "It's the least I can do," he says -- I take his #30 pick in return.

Next year the guy won't even talk to me! He hates me! & why? Is it my fault that he got Derrick Williams & I got Jimmy Butler?

To get serious for a moment... this exercise doesn't prove anything, does it? Not when I do it & not when you do it. & believe me, GMs being what they are, it would be easier for me than for you.

[Ed Wood]

Sure - some of the allure attached to Rui coming out of college was his "complete offensive game" which was sort of an elliptical way of saying he took a lot of midrange shots (bad). Toppin feels somewhat reminiscent of Rui in terms of some of the reservations I have about him in the NBA, but I appreciate that he produces more in the ranges that yield the best results - at the rim and beyond the arc.

[payitforward]

I am not a huge fan of Toppin, though I similarly just am not excited to draft him towards the top of the draft rather than at all. I will say of him as opposed to Rui, who I was also not especially a fan of, his college success is essentially in line with a player who generates a modern NBA offensive bouquet of shots. Rui drew praise for a set of skills that tend to attach adjectives like "savvy" and "smart" from observers but are not actually especially either from a value-added perspective.

I don’t understand your last sentence. Do you care to rephrase?

*I think many people pointed out that Rui has a unique combination of skills and he had only just started playing basketball. So we were hoping that he could be a “late bloomer.” I would also point out that nothing that happened in Rui’s first year did anything to disavow those notions.

You are right -- Rui is still someone who "could be a 'late bloomer.'" Nothing happened to change that.

[prime1time]

I like Toppin but at some point we need to talk about defense. Do people feel ok with lineups of Toppin, Rui and Bertans?

[doclinkin]

Look at the players that you listed. Do any of those players remind you of Bertans? Other than. Kyrie they are guys who score a bunch of easy 2’s. You’re better off comparing to Brandon Clarke imo.

Clarke was in the same top 10 comparison if you sorted for points instead of box plus/minus. Meaning: he was an efficient high usage scorer.

[doclinkin]

I like Toppin but at some point we need to talk about defense. Do people feel ok with lineups of Toppin, Rui and Bertans?

No. But I do think Bertans becomes a juicy trade piece for interior defense and/or future draft picks if we can make up his points and efficient scoring elsewhere. I will admit the value of Rui would drop if we added a player at the same position who proved to be more efficient. Rui's fault though if that were the case. Sunk cost since I don't think anyone is clamoring for Rui whatever we do. I get the feeling Toppin would play him onto the bench. But ultimately that is what you want from player acquisition: you get guys who are better than what you already have.

[Ed Wood]

How efficient Toppin is important but irrelevant.

I am bewildered.

[prime1time]

Sure - some of the allure attached to Rui coming out of college was his "complete offensive game" which was sort of an elliptical way of saying he took a lot of midrange shots (bad). Toppin feels somewhat reminiscent of Rui in terms of some of the reservations I have about him in the NBA, but I appreciate that he produces more in the ranges that yield the best results - at the rim and beyond the arc.

You’re engaging in a lot of revisionist history. Rui shot a higher percentage from college 3 than Toppin did. And while Toppin averaged 1.5 three’s more a game, that’s not nearly enough to just conclude that he can shoot NBA 3’s. Given that Rui shot 82.9% from the ft line, much higher than anything Toppin has shown. I’ll say that I’m much more confident that Rui will develop a 3-point shot in the NBA than Toppin. FT shooting is more correlated to 3 point shooting in the NBA than college 3-point shooting. All of this to say that the most likely scenario is that Rui develops a 3-point shot AND has a midrange shot and skills to get it off. Are they similar players? Yes. But If you have any highlights where a Toppin displayed any array of skills to beat defenders one on one I’d love to see it. Skill wise, Toppin is rudimentary at best and I doubt he ever develops go to skill moves to score. Maybe that’s irrelevant but imo in the playoffs we’re defenses lock in and shut down offenses predicated on 3 or layup it is absolutely necessary to have players that have actual skills.

I’ll put it succinctly. In the half court unless Toppin is knocking down shots or the roll man in the pick and roll, good defenses will make him disappear. And there can only be one roll man. I might be unique but I value offensive skill very highly. So if it’s not clear, I’m taking Rui over Toppin. And if Toppin can’t develop a consistent 3-point (much like Rui) I question whether he will stick. The difference being that a 3-point shooting Rui will be a vastly superior offensive player than a 3-point shooting Toppin.