RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #16 (Karl Malone)

[Doctor MJ]

btw, if anyone is wondering, the reason the final tally is being delayed is to see if a complex [and frankly circumstantially muddled] multi-player run-off can be avoided by hearing back from some individual posters who already cast a counted vote. +/- maybe we get some additional counted votes in the meantime???
idk, this is one of those weird unforeseen circumstances; I'll elaborate later.

So I may be off based, but it occurred to me you might find yourself in this situation here:

1. 1 guy with the lead.
2. Multiple guys tied for 2nd.
3. If you eliminate different guys in the tie you end up with a different final winner.

If that's where you're at, some suggestions:

a. Can you use Condorcet rules to order within the tie? Basically look at all the ballots and score up how many people preferred A vs B, B vs C, and A vs C? There's no guarantee that you'll reach resolution, but it's possible you'll get something like A ties B, B ties C, A beats C which can be used to eliminate C, or A beats B and C, which would allow you to justify selecting A and dropping the others.

b. Consider the winners of all possible elimination orders, run Condorcet only between those players with a route to victory.

c. If still even after all chosen tiebreaking methods, runoff poll between whoever's left. Winner take all.

[Doctor MJ]

[
So you've got to know going in that there's really only 1 guy in the '50s who can even begin to approximate what West can do as a scorer and that's Arizin with his military-interrupted career. Now take Arizin, make him smarter, give him longer arms, a better shot, and you've got West on the offensive side on the ball. Add West almost certainly being the all-time steals leader if we had all the data and possibly quite high on the leaderboard for blocks.

Yeah, West was a different animal from the type Mikan proved himself superior too.

I don't really see any justifications for the fairly strong claims you're making here regarding Arizin/West.

1. Can you be more specific?

2. I will say this: I do think a lot of people think it is more correct to assume neutrality on any given attribute of historical figure rather than to use what you see as the most likely possibility within a range of uncertainty. I prefer the latter approach. I think it generally yields better results as long as you keep your mind open to new information coming to light and be ready to change your mind.

And so I gave an off-the-cuff statement about how I think these guys would roughly compare. Think it a poor one? Share how you compare them.

[Doctor MJ]

Segregation is easily bigger factor in basketball than baseball. Imagine all American white league in 2010s - Kevin Love averages 30/20?

You would certainly think that segregation was a bigger thing in basketball than baseball just based on the Black dominance of the sport of basketball, but I think it is important to understand that Mikan's specific edge was not about race but about height, and there literally was not anyone in Black basketball that I've heard of who was Mikan-sized. So in that sense, I think segregation is probably not all that relevant in the way people might be thinking. Either Mikan or Kurland was the best basketball player on the planet for an extended period of time.

However in a very real sense the damage of segregation was more severe in basketball than baseball, because it became the difference between having a league or not, and the top Black basketball players pivoted toward entertainment rather than actual competition.

So yes, had race not been a thing, there would have been many Black players in the BAA with Mikan and the league would have been better for it, but in reality it's not so much that Mikan dodged competition as much as the competition that could have been there was not what actually existed..

[Cavsfansince84]

Segregation is easily bigger factor in basketball than baseball. Imagine all American white league in 2010s - Kevin Love averages 30/20?

You would certainly think that segregation was a bigger thing in basketball than baseball just based on the Black dominance of the sport of basketball, but I think it is important to understand that Mikan's specific edge was not about race but about height, and there literally was not anyone in Black basketball that I've heard of who was Mikan-sized. So in that sense, I think segregation is probably not all that relevant in the way people might be thinking. Either Mikan or Kurland was the best basketball player on the planet for an extended period of time.

However in a very real sense the damage of segregation was more severe in basketball than baseball, because it became the difference between having a league or not, and the top Black basketball players pivoted toward entertainment rather than actual competition.

So yes, had race not been a thing, there would have been many Black players in the BAA with Mikan and the league would have been better for it, but in reality it's not so much that Mikan dodged competition as much as the competition that could have been there was not what actually existed..

Yes the segregation issue is obviously more pronounced in mlb competition wise since you had the negro leagues in existence going back to the early 20's. So we know the competition which existed and that there plenty of great players in those leagues. In basketball its more of a gray area and I'm no expert as to what the talent pool actually was like back in the 40's/early 50's but it obviously wasn't organized to the degree that it was in baseball.

[trex_8063]

OK, here is the scenario......

Thru post #84:

George Mikan - 5 (DQuinn1575, eminence, Hornet Mania, lebron4-13-4, penbeast0)
Karl Malone - 3 (Doctor MJ, Joao Saraiva, trex_8063)
Julius Erving - 3 (Cavsfansince84, Dr Positivity, sansterre)
David Robinson - 2 (drza, Magic Is Magic)
Moses Malone - 2 (Hal14, Odinn21)
Kevin Durant - 1 (Dutchball97)


16 counted votes, so 9 is required for a majority. We first eliminate Durant, that vote transfers to Erving.....

Mikan - 5
Erving - 4
Karl - 3
Robinson - 2
Moses - 2

Moses and DRob are next eliminated. This transfers two votes to Karl Malone, one to Erving, and one is ghosted.....

Mikan - 5
Karl - 5
Erving - 5

This is the stalemate I've been waiting on. Had contacted the one poster [of the original 16 cast votes] who is still "ghosted out", but have not heard back from him (it's been almost 5 hours now). Also contacted a couple others who could have votes transferred a would potentially be "ghosted" if we eliminated another player (heard back from just one of them).

So in the interest of moving things along, I think I'll proceed with Doctor MJ's suggestion [post #81]:

Spoiler:

btw, if anyone is wondering, the reason the final tally is being delayed is to see if a complex [and frankly circumstantially muddled] multi-player run-off can be avoided by hearing back from some individual posters who already cast a counted vote. +/- maybe we get some additional counted votes in the meantime???
idk, this is one of those weird unforeseen circumstances; I'll elaborate later.

So I may be off based, but it occurred to me you might find yourself in this situation here:

1. 1 guy with the lead.
2. Multiple guys tied for 2nd.
3. If you eliminate different guys in the tie you end up with a different final winner.

If that's where you're at, some suggestions:

a. Can you use Condorcet rules to order within the tie? Basically look at all the ballots and score up how many people preferred A vs B, B vs C, and A vs C? There's no guarantee that you'll reach resolution, but it's possible you'll get something like A ties B, B ties C, A beats C which can be used to eliminate C, or A beats B and C, which would allow you to justify selecting A and dropping the others.

b. Consider the winners of all possible elimination orders, run Condorcet only between those players with a route to victory.

c. If still even after all chosen tiebreaking methods, runoff poll between whoever's left. Winner take all.

.....and declare a victor based on Condorcet rules (to the best of my understanding of them).

Based on ballots cast [and the two posters I heard back from re: Karl vs Mikan] I can say that Karl beats Mikan 9 to 5 (that is: 9 posters have declared they'd take K.Malone over Mikan for this spot [vs 5 the other way], if those are their only choices).

Erving also beats Mikan 8 to 6.

And K.Malone beats Erving 9 to 6.


So I'm going to declare Karl Malone the winner of this spot.

This feels fair on multiple levels:
1) He wins via this Condorcet method (based on the people I've heard back from in each comparison)
2) if we were using a "ballot system" where 1st place vote was 5 pts, 2nd place 3 pts, 3rd place 1 pt, the scores would be: Malone - 37, Erving - 32, Mikan - 26
3) Mikan's standing in either system is only this high via me including lebron3-14-3's vote, which I ALMOST didn't based on VERY limited contributions [which I've already stated will be insufficient moving forward]. Without his vote, K.Malone would have won the spot without resorting to the Condorcet method.

So I'm calling it.
In the future, I'd like to go by way of giving the ghosted votes a chance to decide; BUT I'm not willing to delay an outcome by like a full day in waiting on them. As far as setting precedent, if they don't reply in a "reasonable amount of time", I will henceforth use this Condorcet method to decide an outcome, as I've done here.

Spoiler:

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[quote=”sansterre”].[/quote]

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[DQuinn1575]

OK, here is the scenario......

Thru post #84:

George Mikan - 5 (DQuinn1575, eminence, Hornet Mania, lebron4-13-4, penbeast0)
Karl Malone - 3 (Doctor MJ, Joao Saraiva, trex_8063)
Julius Erving - 3 (Cavsfansince84, Dr Positivity, sansterre)
David Robinson - 2 (drza, Magic Is Magic)
Moses Malone - 2 (Hal14, Odinn21)
Kevin Durant - 1 (Dutchball97)


16 counted votes, so 9 is required for a majority. We first eliminate Durant, that vote transfers to Erving.....

Mikan - 5
Erving - 4
Karl - 3
Robinson - 2
Moses - 2

Moses and DRob are next eliminated. This transfers two votes to Karl Malone, one to Erving, and one is ghosted.....

Mikan - 5
Karl - 5
Erving - 5

This is the stalemate I've been waiting on. Had contacted the one poster [of the original 16 cast votes] who is still "ghosted out", but have not heard back from him (it's been almost 5 hours now). Also contacted a couple others who could have votes transferred a would potentially be "ghosted" if we eliminated another player (heard back from just one of them).

So in the interest of moving things along, I think I'll proceed with Doctor MJ's suggestion [post #81]:

Spoiler:

btw, if anyone is wondering, the reason the final tally is being delayed is to see if a complex [and frankly circumstantially muddled] multi-player run-off can be avoided by hearing back from some individual posters who already cast a counted vote. +/- maybe we get some additional counted votes in the meantime???
idk, this is one of those weird unforeseen circumstances; I'll elaborate later.

So I may be off based, but it occurred to me you might find yourself in this situation here:

1. 1 guy with the lead.
2. Multiple guys tied for 2nd.
3. If you eliminate different guys in the tie you end up with a different final winner.

If that's where you're at, some suggestions:

a. Can you use Condorcet rules to order within the tie? Basically look at all the ballots and score up how many people preferred A vs B, B vs C, and A vs C? There's no guarantee that you'll reach resolution, but it's possible you'll get something like A ties B, B ties C, A beats C which can be used to eliminate C, or A beats B and C, which would allow you to justify selecting A and dropping the others.

b. Consider the winners of all possible elimination orders, run Condorcet only between those players with a route to victory.

c. If still even after all chosen tiebreaking methods, runoff poll between whoever's left. Winner take all.

and declare a victor based on Condorcet rules (to the best of my understanding of them).....

Based on ballots cast [and the one poster I heard back from re: Karl vs Mikan] I can say that Karl beats Mikan 7 to 5 (that is: 7 posters have declared they'd take K.Malone over Mikan for this spot, if those are their choices).

Erving also beats Mikan 8 to 6.

And K.Malone beats Erving 9 to 6.


So I'm going to declare Karl Malone the winner of this spot.
This feels fair on multiple levels:
1) He wins via this Condorcet method.
2) if we were using a "ballot system" where 1st place vote was 5 pts, 2nd place 3 pts, 3rd place 1 pt, the scores would be: Malone - 37, Erving - 32, Mikan - 26
3) Mikan's standing in either system is only this high via me including lebron3-14-3's vote, which I ALMOST didn't based on VERY limited contributions [which I've already stated will be insufficient moving forward]. Without his vote, K.Malone would have won the spot without resorting to the Condorcet method.

So I'm calling it.
In the future, I'd like to go by way of giving the ghosted votes a chance to decide; BUT I'm not willing to delay an outcome by like a full day in waiting on them. As far as setting precedent, if they don't reply in a "reasonable amount of time", I will henceforth use this Condorcet method to decide an outcome, as I've done here.

Spoiler:

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[quote=”sansterre”].

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[LA Bird]

I was just writing up my post on Malone (heh, Post Malone) so it's nice to see him win anyway.

My vote would have been:

1. Karl Malone
2. Chris Paul
3. David Robinson

Malone is the last player of his tier for me. His regular season production is on another level than anyone else remaining and his playoffs is not that bad considering how heavy of a load he was carrying. The Jazz were an elite playoffs team at his peak and Malone had a +20.0 on/off over the 97/98 Finals run combined (Stockton was -2.6 on/off in those 40 games). If this was Garnett rocking a +20 postseason on/off while Cassell/Pierce had a negative on/off, people would be going nuts over it. Malone's longevity is arguably the GOAT and and he peaked as one of the best players in the league even if he didn't deserve MVP over Jordan.

I think I might be the first person to be voting for Chris Paul. Durant and Curry have been getting votes and Paul is still better than both as of now IMO. He is the most well-rounded point guard ever, his advanced metrics are among the best in both regular season and playoffs, and he has quietly accummulated some huge career totals (he is 6.0 career RS+PO WS away from Oscar who is widely regarded as the second best point guard ever).

Robinson's injury and late entry into the NBA prevented him from potentially being in the tier above. He is near the top of basically every advanced stat leaderboard and he has some of the best impact metrics whether it is in the regular season (94-96), playoffs (98-00) or in terms of WOWY. He is held back by playoff disappointments at his peak though.

BTW, Mikan is a long way off from making my ballot. If Russell retired after 8 seasons in 64, I wouldn't be voting for him over Robinson either and Russell at least dominated much stronger competition. Mikan's numbers plummeted after the lane widening in 1952 and the quality of the league before then was pretty horrible. Who was the best player in the NBL after Mikan in the last 40s? Don Otten? Groza was the second best player in 1950 and 1951 as a 6-7 center but then he got banned from the league.

[trex_8063]

Well good. Although it's a bit late, LA Bird's vote would have facilitated Malone winning the spot via the normal method anyway (even counting lebron3-14-3's vote).

[migya]

Never understood why people here are low on Malone. He performed so well year after year. He had some down playoff series but many more great ones. Not many players in history in his place could have done better.