2020 Draft - Part II

[Ed Wood]

I'm not rushing to toss Rui onto the trash heap or anything - he was an okay prospect in my eyes going into the season and had a season consistent with being an okay prospect. That said:

1. Saying that he shot as well as these other players but for his not providing the shots that most particularly make them offensive assets is a real "apart from that Mrs. Lincoln how was the theater" sort of endorsement.

2. Rui's two point percentage wasn't really incredibly remarkable - it was slightly below league average and if he's strictly a midrange-and-in player you kind of need better than that (which perhaps we'll get, players do get better!).

3. The players you're cross-comparing with had a mix of weirdly bad seasons from two (Siakam - who regressed by a full 10% from his prior two seasons, and as a result he also wasn't above league average in TS), games that effectively mask being kind of unimpressive players from a raw 2PFG% perspective (Butler had an absolutely astronomical free throw per field goal rate, like essentially no one who wasn't a center was especially close), or who just flat out shot better than you're reporting (Middleton shot an above-league-average 54.6% last year, in addition to being one of the better shooters in every other way in the league).

So anyway, Rui isn't going anywhere and is going to have every chance to continue to develop along whatever dimensions as a player. He has already shown he is capable of producing offensive outcomes at the NBA level. He needs to develop such that the things he is doing are especially useful things to have done.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

The Draft is upon us (FINALLY!!)

I'm expecting us to take either Okongwu or Okoro if either of them are still on the board at 9.


Should be an exciting draft though, almost anything could happen!

[prime1time]

As much as I love to discuss Rui, I think we should turn the convo back to the 2020 draft. If you haven't you should check out Zach Lowe's latest podcast. Tommy Sheppard was on it.
http://www.espn.com/espnradio/podcast/archive/_/id/10528553
The most interesting line for me was him saying that he would have no problem taking a developmental player - i.e. a player who he thought could be a top player from the draft 3 years from now - instead of helping out right now. I love how he talked about not sacrificing the future for the present.

I feel like outside of Okongwo, we really need to think about Haliburton, Hayes and Williams. Each of these guys have the potential to be one of the top players in the draft 3 years from now.

[payitforward]

Jimmy Butler take a lot of midrange shots. Kawhi Leonard takes a lot of midrange shots. Chris Paul takes a lot of midrange shots Demarr Derozan takes a lot of midrange shots.

It's critical that Rui become a better 3pt shooter. But I don't buy this narrative that taking--and making--midrange shots is "bad."

How could "taking -- and making" any shot be bad? Taking them & missing them is bad!

But, Rui is not Kawhi or Butler or DeRozan. He shot his 2pas at 50% as a rookie. Average for a 4 -- average, not good -- is 56%. So he has to become a good shooter of some kind, any kind; right now, he isn't one.

Are you sure about those numbers? I just went to espn for stats on a few players and subtracted out three pointer. According to my admittedly rudimentary calculations Rui's 2 point percentage isn't that bad. Kawhi shot 50.6% on 2's this year; Jimmy butler, 49.4%; Khris Middleton 50.1%; Jayson Tatum 47.9%; and Pascal siam 49.8%.
I think we should be more encouraged by Rui's first year. He had the best wiz rookie season of any recent rook not named Wall or Beal. Obviously his improvement on 3's is key to his future. But the guy was pretty reliable for a bucket.

Yes, I'm sure about the numbers -- however, it's true that Kawhi shot 50.6% on 2pas this year -- the lowest of his career. Last year, it was 54.2% As a rookie, it was 53.6%. & that's on much much higher usage than Rui's -- almost 60% higher -- all %s go down on higher usage for obvious reasons.

I see why one could think the numbers look similar. In reality they are not.

[payitforward]

As much as I love to discuss Rui, I think we should turn the convo back to the 2020 draft. If you haven't you should check out Zach Lowe's latest podcast. Tommy Sheppard was on it.
http://www.espn.com/espnradio/podcast/archive/_/id/10528553
The most interesting line for me was him saying that he would have no problem taking a developmental player - i.e. a player who he thought could be a top player from the draft 3 years from now - instead of helping out right now. I love how he talked about not sacrificing the future for the present.....

Totally agree!

[TGW]

CBS mock has the Wizards taking Killian Hayes.

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=CBSSportsHQ

Says he's BPA at that point (Okwongwu, Okoro, Hali off the board). I'd say this is probably the worst case scenario next to drafting Nesmith, but this draft isn't good and the #9 pick looks to be right where teams don't want to trade up to.

[prime1time]

CBS mock has the Wizards taking Killian Hayes.

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=CBSSportsHQ

Says he's BPA at that point (Okwongwu, Okoro, Hali off the board). I'd say this is probably the worst case scenario next to drafting Nesmith, but this draft isn't good and the #9 pick looks to be right where teams don't want to trade up to.

I’m fine with this scenario tbh. I take either Patrick Williams or Killian Hayes. I don’t think it’s wrong try I start grooming our pg of the future.

[Ed Wood]

Hayes isn't especially my worst case other than the obvious fact that he's not a perfect need fit behind two 35 mpg guards (assuming Wall's return to play is fairly seamless and his conditioning progresses quickly - though Hayes isn't exactly the pick to jump right in and fill in for minutes in the short term if Wall does operate on more limited minutes initially). I think he's a fine pick as a value proposition at 9 and I'd rather draft him than Okoro, for one. Haliburton is a closer thing, but people who are very fond of Haliburton as a player have tended to confess they'd prefer Hayes and so I think I'm fine sharing that preference.

e: put another way - I don't think the Wizards should be able to pick Hayes at 9, so if the worst thing that happens is that he's available and another player who's also a better than slot talent but is also a neater fit on the roster isn't, that's really not so bad.

[Dark Faze]

For us to pick a point guard given our needs the guy would have to basically be a lock to be a surefire future all-star imo. Otherwise, it's not worth facing the wrath from John and Brad, particularly with the ladder mulling his own future. So I very much doubt we go point guard.

[Ruzious]

I'd be fine with Hayes - since I think he has the highest upside in the draft. My nightmare pick would be RJ Hampton - since I hear he is going up in the charts, and he said he had a great session working out with the Wizards. I think he's more athlete than basketball player at this point.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

So, two days from the draft, is it time to lock in each of our predictions for the Wiz draft? Play along if you want. I’ll start:

Wiz stay put, draft:

Round one - Vassell
Round two - Pritchard

[prime1time]

For us to pick a point guard given our needs the guy would have to basically be a lock to be a surefire future all-star imo. Otherwise, it's not worth facing the wrath from John and Brad, particularly with the ladder mulling his own future. So I very much doubt we go point guard.

That’s what I’m trying to balance. The only way you go forward with the pick is if Beal signs off. If you listen to a Tommy, we are building around Beal not Wall.

[Dat2U]

CBS mock has the Wizards taking Killian Hayes.

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=CBSSportsHQ

Says he's BPA at that point (Okwongwu, Okoro, Hali off the board). I'd say this is probably the worst case scenario next to drafting Nesmith, but this draft isn't good and the #9 pick looks to be right where teams don't want to trade up to.

You say worst case scenario, I'd say its a very good scenario lol. Trading up for Patrick Williams (a Twitter rumor) is a worst case scenario for me. Or reaching badly & drafting someone like Nnaji who is projected to go much lower.

[Shoe]

Pistons should take Hayes to keep Doumbouya focused.

So, two days from the draft, is it time to lock in each of our predictions for the Wiz draft? Play along if you want. I’ll start:

Wiz stay put, draft:

Round one - Vassell
Round two - Pritchard

Round one - Pokusevski
Round two - Tillie

[Dat2U]

I'd be fine with Hayes - since I think he has the highest upside in the draft. My nightmare pick would be RJ Hampton - since I hear he is going up in the charts, and he said he had a esgreat session working out with the Wizards. I think he's more athlete than basketball player at this point.

The scuttlebutt is that he's remade his jumper with Mike Miller and had remarkable results so far. The jumper is a big deal because he's quick enough to beat most guys off the dribble. He could be Dante Exum, he could something more. Definitely has a high ceiling though. Higher than Rui did last year. The work he's put into remaking his shot during the downtime is also a good sign.

[WizarDynasty]

Man Azuibuike has amazing hands. He dunks and his feet are touching the groundv . You can build an entire offense around him being doubled every play. He would be the best center wizard have ever had. There is no way okongwu could guard Azuike in the post. And I could easily see azubuike shutting down okongwu u in the post. Azubuike is extrem et ly coordinated and powerful. He does get off his feet as explosively as Shaq but sky hooks, catching the ball above the rim. When playoffs come and you need a high percentage shot, and the team already knows your plays.. azubuike is like Tim Duncan. I would definitely spend a late first on him.
He cant stretch the floor and shoots horrible fTs but he is going to foul out another team's big and force another team to try to go big just to slow him down. I would love to see Azubuike a wizard. Toughness that we haven't had in decades.
Obviously okongwu would beat him down the court each play but Azubuike on second unit would be devastating. The fact that some of Bamba years ago went top of lottery, and guys like Azubuike are available in the 20s.

I mean the three point shot has taken over because no one values long 9'2 reach center
Forwards out on the perimeter. Have two super long defenders out on perimeter to shut down the three and then have Azbuike shooting 70% on the block and passing to wide open 3 point shooters like Shaq and d howard back with Orlando magic dominance. Just have to think differently to win. Chess match. Azbuike in right hands is like a rook or queen. Obviously wall and Beale 100 percent healthy are your tools and queens. Leonsis drive to win is the king. We as pretend gma are kings on chess board, no unbiased strategy, no victory.

[Shoe]

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[WizarDynasty]

I'd be fine with Hayes - since I think he has the highest upside in the draft. My nightmare pick would be RJ Hampton - since I hear he is going up in the charts, and he said he had a esgreat session working out with the Wizards. I think he's more athlete than basketball player at this point.

The scuttlebutt is that he's remade his jumper with Mike Miller and had remarkable results so far. The jumper is a big deal because he's quick enough to beat most guys off the dribble. He could be Dante Exum, he could something more. Definitely has a high ceiling though. Higher than Rui did last year. The work he's put into remaking his shot during the downtime is also a good sign.

Vassel has Otto Porter magnified by 100. Just not a good fit. If I had to pick between okoro and Williams. I would still pick achiuwa ... then willians, then okoro. Vassel I wouldn't pick until early 20s trading down.

Pritchard doesnt make sense, because he is not long enough to challenge threes while giving his man a cushion. Team needs long 92 standing reach perimeter defenders to guard against the three. High paced three point shooting is the deadliest offense. Teams want to shoot a high quantity of threes because they are worth more. Only way to counter is to have 2 long extremely defenders with elite defensive footwork that can get back on defense quickly.
Bulls had this with Jordan 9'0 and scotty pippen 9'2 standing reach.
Beale and wall are relatively short to bother threes. Beal is only 8'4 and walk us 8'5. Hachi has only 8'7 reach. Bryant poor defensive footwork to guard the three. Uts absolutely critical that you pick a 9'2 standing reach with lateral dense.
The wizards dont have one perimeter defender with elite lateral movement and elite length. The team does not have one player built to effortlessly challenge three pointer while giving a cushion. That is absolute key. The cushion and length are playoff level attributes needed for deep post season run. Otherwise wall and neal are being paid enormously for NOTHING.
Achiuwa is clearly the wizards only hope.
Think about the free agents available with 9'1 standing reach..in the last year that wiz and elite lateral defense and offensive upside.

I am going to answer the question, none. They are rare and are hidden secrets to success. Screw what mocks say players are valued at. Get the player who is hard to get free agency. 9'2 standing reach small forwards with offensive upside and elite lateral quickness are impossible to get. There are only a few that exist. Guys like Tayshaun Princw in his prime, Shawn Marion, Scotty Pippen. These long elite perimeter defenders with offensive ability are the hidden engines behind championships.

The key to championship is having perimeter who are long enough to challenge three and still give a good cushion against the drive. You need to build you small forward with elite length and elite lateral quickness. Wizards have never.......
Ever......


Ever made this a priority. Are only hope us that Leonsis steps in and gives order to get Our small forward. Now does P. William have elite lateral quickness? Does he have 9"2 standing reach? That's the guy I want to know just a little bit more about. Maybe someone has come across inside measurements. Right now I can only go by how far his hands are from the net. He seems like he is not very long like achiuwa?

[queridiculo]

The Draft is upon us (FINALLY!!)

I'm expecting us to take either Okongwu or Okoro if either of them are still on the board at 9.


Should be an exciting draft though, almost anything could happen!

You're two days early mate!

[TGW]

For us to pick a point guard given our needs the guy would have to basically be a lock to be a surefire future all-star imo. Otherwise, it's not worth facing the wrath from John and Brad, particularly with the ladder mulling his own future. So I very much doubt we go point guard.

That's the way I look at it. I don't think Hayes is a particular bad prospect, and in the grand scheme of things I don't think he would be a bad pick. But given the situation this team is in, drafting what amounts to a 19 year old 3rd string point guard is not maximizing your assets.