therealbig3 wrote:I mean, I don't think I would have been cool with giving up 3 picks and 2 pick swaps for Jrue Holiday, don't think anyone was going to beat Milwaukee's offer...they were desperate, because they can't afford to lose Giannis.
I think people (Rightfully so) have PTSD on the 5-pick package. If you look at the history of those, more often then not the swaps dont convey and the majority are non-lotto. Lets dive even deeper into each.
2020: #19 picked guaranteed. Maybe they draft well and get a role starter. its still not a great asset. Teams will likely be able to buy picks in the 16-24 range of this draft
2021 (SWAP): This pick is based on this seasons record. Even if KD doesnt recover, Kyrie misses time and the trio is a bust the rockets just gutted their team. we would out-win them and this Swap would not convey. If it did convey it would mean something enormously catastrophic like Kyrie retiring abrubtly, harden career injury and KD being 50% post injury ALL happening
2022: Base on the year 2 record for the new Trio. Again even if KD/Kyrie are 50% of themselves, it blows up, maybe one or 2 are dealt its enough talent with even 1 of them to win 35-45 games and convey a pick in the 15-25 area. this is not a great pick
2023: The second of the swaps; this one more likely to convey. Houston would be in year 3 of their rebuild. Typically year 3 a rebuilding team may have found some talent in the high lotto, but Houston traded all their own picks so even if they suck they wont benefit. maybe they hit gold on their late picks via trade or signed someone good with their cap. even if that did happen AND the nets imploded and decided on their own rebuild, the nets are probably looking at swapping #5 for #11 not #1 for #25.
2024: The best shot for Houston of a good pick. maybe its top 3. maybe its high lotto. in either event any trade with the rockets would likely include this pick. so whether its 1 pick of 5, 2024 or 2023 is likely in. its also the pick marks is most likely to add top 3 or top 5 protection too
in the end houston probably ends up with 4 picks, not 5, with half or more of those outside the lottery and likely all but 1 or may be all of them outside the top 5.