Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIX

[awolfinwater]

Long time lurker.

I think this is real and I'll all for it. Salaries are exactly the same so it comes down to value on the court.

John is coming off an excruciating injury. Listening to Sheppard on the Lowe Post, he alluded to having the film of multiple scrimmages involving JW...not just the highlight clips that have been floating around. Additionally, Fred Katz dropped some comments from Tommy in his article today where he said something along the lines of a 60% or 80% John Wall still being better than someone's 100%.

My takeaway is John has lost a couple of steps. Not a big surprise. But combining these data points with his infamous video leads me to believe that this for real and I'll for it.

I love John. But this is a business. Sell now before he steps on the court and everyone else can see with their own eyes his post injury capabilities.

Finally, if it takes Rui, then i would do it. He regressed in the bubble. Given his age and low rate of improvement in his game, he is a moveable piece. What gives me pause is the revenue he brings in from the Japanese audience. I'm not privvy to those details but can imagine that has some sway on the bottom line.

[80sballboy]

I actually like the fact that the Wiz are even in the news, but I wouldn't be willing to give up the 9th pick and Wall in the deal.

The interesting thing is the reaction on Wiz Twitter. Maybe it's more the Millenials who love Wall. I'm not married to any player at this point. It's become a business, but to think Wall is going to be just as good or better after having an Achilles' injury is incredibly naive. Didn't say this is the right deal, but nobody should be untradeable on this team.

[payitforward]

1. 'Teams are discussing" = somebody called somebody. It's nothing. If that -- maybe less than nothing.

2. Tommy praising the Keef trade is just him being a company man. He's not going to criticize the guy who hired him & for whom he worked. So what.

If you trade a lottery pick for someone, then 2.5 years later you have to give a R2 pick to get rid of him, I'm pretty sure that doesn't make the top tier of outstanding trades!

[Jimmy Recard]

Long time lurker.

I think this is real and I'll all for it. Salaries are exactly the same so it comes down to value on the court.

John is coming off an excruciating injury. Listening to Sheppard on the Lowe Post, he alluded to having the film of multiple scrimmages involving JW...not just the highlight clips that have been floating around. Additionally, Fred Katz dropped some comments from Tommy in his article today where he said something along the lines of a 60% or 80% John Wall still being better than someone's 100%.

My takeaway is John has lost a couple of steps. Not a big surprise. But combining these data points with his infamous video leads me to believe that this for real and I'll for it.

I love John. But this is a business. Sell now before he steps on the court and everyone else can see with their own eyes his post injury capabilities.

Finally, if it takes Rui, then i would do it. He regressed in the bubble. Given his age and low rate of improvement in his game, he is a moveable piece. What gives me pause is the revenue he brings in from the Japanese audience. I'm not privvy to those details but can imagine that has some sway on the bottom line.

A straight swap is one thing, but to attach assets too? Rui? Draft picks? Yeah gfto. Not interested. Wall isn’t perfect but at least he isn’t a stat padding loser who cares more about his numbers than making teammates better. There’s a reason why a 35 year old Chris Paul got the thunder further in one season that Westbrook did in 3 seasons without KD. No team with WB is winning anything. Just go on YouTube and look at the dozens of statpadding compilations where he’s stealing uncontested rebounds off teammates or passing up wide open layups to get his 10th assist. No thank you.

[payitforward]

Long time lurker.

I think this is real and I'll all for it. Salaries are exactly the same so it comes down to value on the court.

John is coming off an excruciating injury. Listening to Sheppard on the Lowe Post, he alluded to having the film of multiple scrimmages involving JW...not just the highlight clips that have been floating around. Additionally, Fred Katz dropped some comments from Tommy in his article today where he said something along the lines of a 60% or 80% John Wall still being better than someone's 100%.

My takeaway is John has lost a couple of steps. Not a big surprise. But combining these data points with his infamous video leads me to believe that this for real and I'll for it.

I love John. But this is a business. Sell now before he steps on the court and everyone else can see with their own eyes his post injury capabilities.

Finally, if it takes Rui, then i would do it. He regressed in the bubble. Given his age and low rate of improvement in his game, he is a moveable piece. What gives me pause is the revenue he brings in from the Japanese audience. I'm not privvy to those details but can imagine that has some sway on the bottom line.

Well, I like that you take a "cold-blooded" view of such a deal. That's good. Any player on any team should be available in a trade -- it's all about, & only about, the deal itself. If it's good enough, take it.

In this case, I see no way that the deal could be good enough. & if the Rockets are looking for assets beyond a straight-up trade, forget about it.

Not that Westbrook isn't a better player than John Wall -- he is! That's not a ding on Wall either. Wall has been terrific, but on their careers overall... it's not even all that close. Westbrook scores more points, & he also scores them more efficiently than John. He's also a much better rebounder -- he's a significant rebounder.

He's just a better player. Period. & he's also played 50% more minutes than John. Really there's no comparison.

But... those minutes count against him now. He has no future. There's no reason to believe he'd be better than John going forward. & even if he was... so what? How much better? What's it gain us -- esp. compared to the fan-related costs of the deal.

We're a rebuilding team. Fans don't see it yet, but we're focused on the next generation of Wizards. We have no need whatever for Russell Westbrook. The idea that we'd add something to get him is ridiculous! There's no value in the deal straight up.

[payitforward]

The only way to trade John Wall is for forward-facing assets. &... that seems pretty much impossible. I think he'll spend his entire career as a Washington Wizard. & I like that.

[Dat2U]

Long time lurker.

I think this is real and I'll all for it. Salaries are exactly the same so it comes down to value on the court.

John is coming off an excruciating injury. Listening to Sheppard on the Lowe Post, he alluded to having the film of multiple scrimmages involving JW...not just the highlight clips that have been floating around. Additionally, Fred Katz dropped some comments from Tommy in his article today where he said something along the lines of a 60% or 80% John Wall still being better than someone's 100%.

My takeaway is John has lost a couple of steps. Not a big surprise. But combining these data points with his infamous video leads me to believe that this for real and I'll for it.

I love John. But this is a business. Sell now before he steps on the court and everyone else can see with their own eyes his post injury capabilities.

Finally, if it takes Rui, then i would do it. He regressed in the bubble. Given his age and low rate of improvement in his game, he is a moveable piece. What gives me pause is the revenue he brings in from the Japanese audience. I'm not privvy to those details but can imagine that has some sway on the bottom line.

John was already two steps slow last year before he shut it down and he looked a step slow the year before. He honestly looked quicker in some of the recent workouts than he did at any point last season. But Wall doesn't need that extra .100 of a sec. He never did. He always had speed to burn and strength/power that he didn't use enough of.

[WizarDynasty]

Yeah I am not giving up Rui just to take on Westbrook. Westbrook is a high volume, low efficiency scorer. Even if Wall is bad, Westbrook is not going to get us over the hump. There is no way I am giving up significant Assets to take on Westbrook. Do I think Westbrook has more value than Wall, yes, but a future second would be all that i am willing to part. We are not a team that is one piece away from winning a championship. Our future lies in on draft picks gaining more and more value.
Westbrook value is not going to increase and we already know what we are getting with Westbrook in the modern nba. He wants to be a number one option but unless he can shoot a field goal percentage like curry, or michael jordan, a guard can not be your number one option. KObe did it with Pau Gasol and Shaquille Oneal. Lebron James is a .50 field goal percentage shooter. Giannis is above .50. Westbrook has never been even close to . 50 let alone close to .45.
Rui is the closest thing on this team that we have to a big reaching .50 field goal percentage on high volume.
That should be the aim of the trade.
Westbrook doesn't want to be there, Wall isn't what he use to be, but Washington has to suffer way to long to give up the few bright spots we have just to bring in a veteran on the downside of his career. I am not trading Chris Webber and Rasheed Wallace for Juwan Howard.
So a straight up swap of John Wall for Westbrook is the farthest i will go. I am not giving up a scotty pippen like player for westbrook. I am not even giving up one these early 2nd round draft picks just so that Houston can explain to their fans that they got value for westbrook.
I would do the trade but I am not giving up Rui, and we have alot of players that we got in trades from Los Angelos. the furthest i go is 2nd round pick in a future year where we are better than what we are now.
Beal is not a .50 percent shooter from the field and he is not first team, 2nd team, or even third team all defense.
Wall maybe hobble around a bit, but westbrook's inefficiency is not going to make us a deep playoff team, especially if we ar e giving up Rui and draft assets from this draft.
If nobody desires the players that shepherd has traded for, that should tell you that Shepherd is on the hot seat. But again, absolutely no way to this year draft picks and no way to trading Rui. That is basically Washington's only hope of getting better. Thomas Bryant and Troy Brown are not stars. Ish smith is a journey man but Westbrook is not going to do much better because he basically going to chuck shots up make them at a low percentage.
Now trading Wall for an allstar 2 way bigman, that's when we might want to start tossing real assets. So for the record i am down with grabbing westbrook only if it means we aren't giving up Rui, or any of this years draft picks or future 1st rounders. I would consider giving up our second rounder this year if the only available guys are pritchard and non athletic guards. But i am not giving up scotty pippen at begin of his career for westbrook who is close to end of his best years.
As far as John's quickness, we need John is a big point guard. It wasn't his quickness that made him elite, it was his size and athleticism, and basketball IQ.
He has the ability to lead a team and get his team to play better with him than without him. Westbrook really doesn't have that ability. Westbrook is a volume score first guard, passing happens when he can't score.
Wall is a pass first point guard meaning, that he works hard just so he can set his team mates up for easy looks. Wall has heart and leadership and long track record of fighting for DC. He is an Icon, and Beal is becoming one too. You don't let ICON's walk away unless you are getting game changing talent. Westbrook is not michael jordan and even michael jordan needed one of the greatest perimeter defenders in the game stopping the other's team best player night in and night out. We don't have our pippen yet until after the draft.

[nate33]

For the record, I am against this trade - even if it's a straight up swap.

[doclinkin]

For the record, I am against this trade - even if it's a straight up swap.

Likewise. I don't even like that it was talked about. That's pretty piss poor GMing if you are newly installed in Houston and are already trying to blow up Tommy's team under him. Tommy is well liked leaguewide. Nobody will want to do business with you if you are going to leak terms, real or fictional, and give them internal PR issues. Poisoning an asset to try to cause strife and shake something loose. Rafael Stone, smh. He's frantically trying to make a mark while his franchise collapses under his feet.

[LyricalRico]

Don't really see Wall-for-Westbrook making sense for either team. This strikes me more as Houston trying to drum up interest, both to try to increase Westbrook's perceived value and also maybe to get a positive reaction from Harden.

But I'll agree with a previous post that it's at least nice to hear the team's name come up in offseason discussions involving All-Star players, if only for the fleeting sense of relevance lol.

[doclinkin]

Stone was one of 500 attorneys at Dewey Ballantine LLP, which is a major corporate law firm headquartered in New York, and his experience in the courtroom prepared him for his newly promoted role as the Houston Rockets GM.

Stone was essentially described by MacMahon as a master negotiator, which seems fitting based on his legal background. This is also a trait that would seem to come in handy for a general manager, as it would certainly be put to use when negotiating trades and brokering deals across the league.

Yeah that seems like a corporate lawyer trying to create leverage where he has none.

[awolfinwater]

Thanks everyone for the well versed responses. Great feedback.

Let's take a look at a somewhat known and accepted aggregate advanced stat like Win Shares (or take your pick, they are all highly correlated).

John Wall was around 8 Win Shares per year in 4 years prior injury (2013 - 2017).

If he comes back at 60%, then he is at 4.8 Win Shares.

If he comes back at 80% l, then he is at 6.4 Won Shares.

While Russell Westbrook was around 12 Win Shares but has declined to 6.8 in 2018-2019 and 4.2 last season.

You could argue they have the same expected value for on the court production.

I'll take back my offer of Rui but I would include pick 37 to get it done.

[verbal8]

Could the Wall/Westbrook rumors be an attempt to build up the value of both players?

Even if the Wizards aren't looking to deal Wall, building up his value can help with acquiring other players. The Rockets really don't have much leverage with dealing Westbrook so a hint of semi-serious interest could help with keeping his trade value from tanking.

[WizarDynasty]

Thanks everyone for the well versed responses. Great feedback.

Let's take a look at a somewhat known and accepted aggregate advanced stat like Win Shares (or take your pick, they are all highly correlated).

John Wall was around 8 Win Shares per year in 4 years prior injury (2013 - 2017).

If he comes back at 60%, then he is at 4.8 Win Shares.

If he comes back at 80% l, then he is at 6.4 Won Shares.

While Russell Westbrook was around 12 Win Shares but has declined to 6.8 in 2018-2019 and 4.2 last season.

You could argue they have the same expected value for on the court production.

I'll take back my offer of Rui but I would include pick 37 to get it done.

Look all that win share mess means nothing unless you are talking about win shares against team that made the playoffs. I don't think the stats can be sorted in that way.
What matters is how JOhn Wall performed against playoff caliber teams and more importantly, top seeded playoff teams. So if you are able to sort that data with top 4 seeded playoff teams in each division for the year, that would provide much better data.

[prime1time]

Long time lurker.

I think this is real and I'll all for it. Salaries are exactly the same so it comes down to value on the court.

John is coming off an excruciating injury. Listening to Sheppard on the Lowe Post, he alluded to having the film of multiple scrimmages involving JW...not just the highlight clips that have been floating around. Additionally, Fred Katz dropped some comments from Tommy in his article today where he said something along the lines of a 60% or 80% John Wall still being better than someone's 100%.

My takeaway is John has lost a couple of steps. Not a big surprise. But combining these data points with his infamous video leads me to believe that this for real and I'll for it.

I love John. But this is a business. Sell now before he steps on the court and everyone else can see with their own eyes his post injury capabilities.

Finally, if it takes Rui, then i would do it. He regressed in the bubble. Given his age and low rate of improvement in his game, he is a moveable piece. What gives me pause is the revenue he brings in from the Japanese audience. I'm not privvy to those details but can imagine that has some sway on the bottom line.

Overvaluing the bubble no? Why would we give up on Rui so quickly?

[WizarDynasty]

Long time lurker.

I think this is real and I'll all for it. Salaries are exactly the same so it comes down to value on the court.

John is coming off an excruciating injury. Listening to Sheppard on the Lowe Post, he alluded to having the film of multiple scrimmages involving JW...not just the highlight clips that have been floating around. Additionally, Fred Katz dropped some comments from Tommy in his article today where he said something along the lines of a 60% or 80% John Wall still being better than someone's 100%.

My takeaway is John has lost a couple of steps. Not a big surprise. But combining these data points with his infamous video leads me to believe that this for real and I'll for it.

I love John. But this is a business. Sell now before he steps on the court and everyone else can see with their own eyes his post injury capabilities.

Finally, if it takes Rui, then i would do it. He regressed in the bubble. Given his age and low rate of improvement in his game, he is a moveable piece. What gives me pause is the revenue he brings in from the Japanese audience. I'm not privvy to those details but can imagine that has some sway on the bottom line.

Overvaluing the bubble no? Why would we give up on Rui so quickly?

We had to suffer an entire season just to get him.

[Wizardspride]

Read on Twitter

?s=19

[verbal8]

One interesting scenario with the Wall and Houston could be part of a 3-way deal with the Nets. With Harden end up in Brooklyn, Wall in Houston and Irving in DC.

Not sure I love the deal, but the structure could make a lot of sense to Houston. Directly trading Harden for fair value might be hard, but if there were 2 teams adding incentives it might get better for Houston.

[doclinkin]

Thanks everyone for the well versed responses. Great feedback.

Let's take a look at a somewhat known and accepted aggregate advanced stat like Win Shares (or take your pick, they are all highly correlated).

John Wall was around 8 Win Shares per year in 4 years prior injury (2013 - 2017).

If he comes back at 60%, then he is at 4.8 Win Shares.

If he comes back at 80% l, then he is at 6.4 Won Shares.

While Russell Westbrook was around 12 Win Shares but has declined to 6.8 in 2018-2019 and 4.2 last season.

You could argue they have the same expected value for on the court production.

I'll take back my offer of Rui but I would include pick 37 to get it done.

If he posted a 6.4 win share then he is in the top 5% of the league. But as you say Westbrook has been declining. Wall may be improving, considering he was playing on bone spurs for the past 2 seasons he was on court. But even if you expect him at 6.4, he is better than Westbrook posted, and given his ballhog propensity he hasn't shown that he can share well with other high usage players. He is not raising their average. But you want us to pay extra for the declining player? Adding assets? I wouldn't do it if Houston was sending picks.

As for assets shipped: you are going to rate Rui based on him playing without Beal on the court and as the sole offensive option, against the top teams in the league? Hardly a reasonable assessment under strange and strained conditions.

No thanks. I don't buy the story and wouldn't sell low on a player they have been diligently working with over the past few years. I think Sheppard is pretty open about what he likes and doesn't like. To a fault, even. Like I said this sounds like a new guy who is bailing a leaky boat and trying to use everybody's former whipping boy (The Wizards franchise) as the bucket. But it is the same misread of the situation that every other team in the league and their fans lean on. They seem to think we don't want Wall, and not that the organization sees him as a cornerstone and foundational player.

Yeah I'd buy the story that the Wiz were disappointed by the bad PR of that video, and the situation it suggests. Maybe they are okilydokily Ned Flanders about character etc. and maybe that goes into some calculations. I don't see it in anything else they have done around trying to build a Wall/Beal team, and including Wall in their coaching staff conversations etc. Westbrook drove KD out of OKC. He is driving Harden out of Houston, after he drove him out of OKC as well. Why do we want that guy?

This is just Houston 'willing to get uncomfortable' league wide, as a desperation move.

Rockets 'Willing To Get Uncomfortable' With James Harden, Russell Westbrook