Official Speculation Thread '20-'21 VI: "I like this team"

[VFX]

I would love that too (like you since they took over), but i cant imagine this FO trading AG, Vuc or Evan for rookies or draft picks. I think they know they wont survive a rebuild with young players (young teams are always bad). They could have done that, when they took over (they should have), but now its too late for them & i don't think Isaac's injury is enough reason for the casual fan or the DeVos family. I hope i'm totally wrong about that, because its the perfect time to do this.
Its the reason i'm happy about every trade, that makes our competition better. No sleepwalkin to the 8th place anymore by default & doing nothing but drafting & resigning Hennigan guys.

I could be a jerk and say “I told you so” to a number of posters here about this FO perpetuating mediocrity, while trying to pass it off as some amazing blueprint. I won’t.

The most obnoxious thing about this FO is their refusal to move on from Hennigan’s core. If not refusal, then their complete lack of urgency. They didn’t have a plan and that is now obvious. Watching another season of this, with slight variation, will be painful. I probably won’t.

Watching OKC amass assets at this level makes me sick. Why? Because their GM knows how their market operates and how to strategize a rebuild in 2020. Orlando did the opposite, and I know which organization I would place a bet on to become better quicker. hint: not us.

I don't understand fascination with OKC and their picks.

If you start reading about those picks, it's just bunch of rights to swap pick but who are also heavily protected. For crying out loud what's the point of making a trade for 2025 draft pick- right to swap that is top 10 lottery protected ?

Not to mention that one of recent trades included 2027 draft pick.

Almost all their picks come from Clippers and Miami, those teams are going to be contenders next few years so we talk about bunch of 20-30 first round picks


In mean time their roster now is:
Rubio ( last year of contract)
SGA ( UFA next year )
Oubre ( last year of contract)
Adams ( last year of contract)
Noel ( unrestricted FA right now)

That's pretty much it from bunch of players that even are NBA level players.

So they have army of draft picks and literally no NBA players but SGA left after 2020-21 is finished.

PIcks are cool, but purpose of picks is to get actual players, right now OKC has 5 nba players and 4 have every intention to leave them within 9 months

Simple: options.

Even if you don’t believe draft picks translate to possible quality nba talent (you don’t for some reason), OKC can still trade a majority of those picks for legitimate nba players.

Idgaf about their roster aside from SGA, and they probably don’t either. That’s not the point. They aren’t competing right now, they are acquiring assets to trade for nba talent they wouldn’t otherwise attract in their free agency market.

The fact you are incapable of seeing what they are doing is actually impressive density.

OR

You could just watch the same core of 3 players for 7 seasons, expect different results, and be perplexed when not much changes.

[Bensational]

I would love that too (like you since they took over), but i cant imagine this FO trading AG, Vuc or Evan for rookies or draft picks. I think they know they wont survive a rebuild with young players (young teams are always bad). They could have done that, when they took over (they should have), but now its too late for them & i don't think Isaac's injury is enough reason for the casual fan or the DeVos family. I hope i'm totally wrong about that, because its the perfect time to do this.
Its the reason i'm happy about every trade, that makes our competition better. No sleepwalkin to the 8th place anymore by default & doing nothing but drafting & resigning Hennigan guys.

I could be a jerk and say “I told you so” to a number of posters here about this FO perpetuating mediocrity, while trying to pass it off as some amazing blueprint. I won’t.

The most obnoxious thing about this FO is their refusal to move on from Hennigan’s core. If not refusal, then their complete lack of urgency. They didn’t have a plan and that is now obvious. Watching another season of this, with slight variation, will be painful. I probably won’t.

Watching OKC amass assets at this level makes me sick. Why? Because their GM knows how their market operates and how to strategize a rebuild in 2020. Orlando did the opposite, and I know which organization I would place a bet on to become better quicker. hint: not us.

I don't understand fascination with OKC and their picks.

If you start reading about those picks, it's just bunch of rights to swap pick but who are also heavily protected. For crying out loud what's the point of making a trade for 2025 draft pick- right to swap that is top 10 lottery protected ?

Not to mention that one of recent trades included 2027 draft pick.

Almost all their picks come from Clippers and Miami, those teams are going to be contenders next few years so we talk about bunch of 20-30 first round picks


In mean time their roster now is:
Rubio ( last year of contract)
SGA ( UFA next year )
Oubre ( last year of contract)
Adams ( last year of contract)
Noel ( unrestricted FA right now)

That's pretty much it from bunch of players that even are NBA level players.

So they have army of draft picks and literally no NBA players but SGA left after 2020-21 is finished.

PIcks are cool, but purpose of picks is to get actual players, right now OKC has 5 nba players and 4 have every intention to leave them within 9 months

That team has good talent right now, quality young pieces for the future, and cap flexibility for two max FAs as of next offseason. How is that a bad place to be? It's bad if they get trapped there, sure, but for a team without a franchise/contending core, what better spot could you ask to be in?

[pepe1991]

I could be a jerk and say “I told you so” to a number of posters here about this FO perpetuating mediocrity, while trying to pass it off as some amazing blueprint. I won’t.

The most obnoxious thing about this FO is their refusal to move on from Hennigan’s core. If not refusal, then their complete lack of urgency. They didn’t have a plan and that is now obvious. Watching another season of this, with slight variation, will be painful. I probably won’t.

Watching OKC amass assets at this level makes me sick. Why? Because their GM knows how their market operates and how to strategize a rebuild in 2020. Orlando did the opposite, and I know which organization I would place a bet on to become better quicker. hint: not us.

I don't understand fascination with OKC and their picks.

If you start reading about those picks, it's just bunch of rights to swap pick but who are also heavily protected. For crying out loud what's the point of making a trade for 2025 draft pick- right to swap that is top 10 lottery protected ?

Not to mention that one of recent trades included 2027 draft pick.

Almost all their picks come from Clippers and Miami, those teams are going to be contenders next few years so we talk about bunch of 20-30 first round picks


In mean time their roster now is:
Rubio ( last year of contract)
SGA ( UFA next year )
Oubre ( last year of contract)
Adams ( last year of contract)
Noel ( unrestricted FA right now)

That's pretty much it from bunch of players that even are NBA level players.

So they have army of draft picks and literally no NBA players but SGA left after 2020-21 is finished.

PIcks are cool, but purpose of picks is to get actual players, right now OKC has 5 nba players and 4 have every intention to leave them within 9 months

That team has good talent right now, quality young pieces for the future, and cap flexibility for two max FAs as of next offseason. How is that a bad place to be? It's bad if they get trapped there, sure, but for a team without a franchise/contending core, what better spot could you ask to be in?

What young peaces? They have SGA and guys who are nemed:
Isaiah Roby
Jalen Lecque
Luguentz Dort
Hamidou Diallo
Darius Bazley

Take Adams, Rubio and Oubre ( all unrestricted free agents next year, with probably zero desire to stick around what will soon become 15 wins team) and you are left with SGA , 25th 2020 and 28 th 2020 draft pick and that's basically it.

But in 2027, today 13 years old boy will be drafted by them using Houston pick
#TheFuture

We are really looking at 5 years in advanced draft , where kids born 2007 will be playing, and pretend NBA , multi million dollars team has bright future?
76es in 2013 had army of picks, 7 years later they team that is first round exit team. Fantasy picking always sounds more exiting than reality.

[Skin]

I'm just gonna stay positive until the draft happens.... AND THEN I'll react.

But for now... namaste....

There are a lot of things I love about this team and the ascend has been slow, but it has been steady. I've been wanting our FO to turn the page on Henny's guys for quite some time. Heck, I've wanted Henny to turn the page on his own guys. lol. But the one thing that I've liked about this FO is the young guys they have collected. I guess that's where many of us disagree. A lot of doubt surrounds Fultz and Bamba... and Isaac's injuries are not helping anyone's confidence...

But if I'm looking sunny side up, I think that those are 3 key building blocks.

Fultz is probably my favorite player on the team. I think he's just starting to scratch his surface and that his shooting will come around. That said, even if his 3 ball doesn't come around, I think that he can still be an All-Star one day because of the rest of his game. Russell Westbrook, Jimmy Butler, Dwayne Wade, Demar Derozan and countless other guys have made great impacts in this league without a deadly 3pt shot. Hell, Lebron's shooting was a major question mark in many of his earlier years. What matters is surrounding him with shooters. Fultz carves through defenses, isn't afraid of taking big shots, plays a physical and explosive brand of basketball that I love.

Isaac is only 23 years old. He's still on his rookie deal. His injury is a worry, but I'm not overwriting him yet or pawning him off in trade. I'm ready to ride the long haul with him because he truly can be a difference maker and potential All-Star. At the least All-Defensive Team repeater.

Bamba gets the most discouragement from fans, but I'm still in his corner, and I will stay there until I see more. I love how swole he got and I love the rim protection and 3pt range in his game. Future role player, imo but that's exactly what I want out of him. We need to build a team of 5 good starters, but some of them have to be affordable and that's where I think Bamba can benefit us. Vucevic is too pricey and too ball dominant. That's not what I need Bamba to be. When I hear, "He can't beat out Vuc", I say "Good. I don't want another asset on this team that is a misuse of our cap space." We should be saving our $$$ on elite wing players.

I'm hopeful of Chuma, but it would exceed my expectations to see him become our full time starter at either SF or PF. He's a glue guy imo. An X factor that can be used in a variety of line ups to take advantages of mismatches. He should be in our top 8 rotation and I hope he progresses into an efficient 3 and D guy. Jae Crowder, PJ Tucker, OG Anuoby... something along those lines.

Get me ONE more piece to be hopeful of this year, and I'm good. Just hurry up and turn the page and let these guys run wild. Maybe that's not the smart thing, but I want them to get significant playing time.

[Skybox]

Yes.

John Wall (30 y/o) has played 73 games total over the past 3 years.

Westbrook alongside Beal would easily skip over Orlando for a playoff spot in the East next year.

Sad.

If this happens, coupled with Brooklyn landing Harden, Orlando should 100% tank this season without Isaac.

Play all the youth and make some trades please.

I came to that conclusion last night. It is time to tear this down. When you see real playoff teams making moves while we do nothing, there isn’t much of a choice. Good players are being moved and none of them are making their way here.

How about outbid them for Westbrook and kick their ass instead of scurrying into the bunker for 5 years? I’ve got news, a healthy Wall and a smart draft might take them back in front of us...have some balls WeHam, go for it!

[Skybox]

And I want to be clear in the direction I think we should go. We should be emulating this as best we can immediately:

Read on Twitter

Also, to be clear, this guy swung for the fences with Oladipo, Paul George, Westbrook very recently and it didn’t work out...the real genius is digging out quickly from jams...which he has. He’s not passively thinking way down the road, he’s cycling through phases quickly like a nerdier Riley.

[jonbob17]

Guys the draft isn't a zero sum game. We could miss the playoffs for one year and be better in 2021-2022. It's not like it is 5 years of losing on purpose. Frankly I don't think Clifford would let this team tank next year, but that doesn't mean they won't miss the playoffs.
For instance if we can trade AG to move up in this draft. Move Fournier at some point, move Aminu when he recovers value. Keep Vuc.
2021 line up:
Fultz/FA
Hayes/MCW
BJ Boston/FA
Isaac/Okeke
Vuc/Bamba

That is a team with remarkably more talent on both sides of the ball. Big deal we miss out on the opportunity to lose to Milwaukee or Boston or New Jersey this year.

[drsd]

There will also be a play-in for the seventh and eighth seeds in both conferences played between May 18th and May 21st. The winner of the Seven-Eight Game will be the seventh seed while the loser of that game will host the winner of the Nine-Ten Game, and the winner will be the eighth seed.

We can bet the house that Orlando will be between the 7 and 10 seed in the East, so this is really interesting for management in considering the roster decisions.

[Magicfanatic82]

The top of next years draft is projected to be way better than this year. Teams like okc know that and didnt want to compete next year.
This draft has
Edwards- might not like basketball wiggins personality
Ball- no d or shooting
Wiseman- 3 games in over a year to evaluate

Next year you have
Cunningham- controls game, cerebral
Green and Boston- scoring machines
Mobley- super skilled big
Kumunga, Johnson, Barnes, Williams lots of big wings

[drsd]

We could miss the playoffs for one year and be better in 2021-2022.

Last season the 10-seed had a 35% winning rate
Before that the 10-seed had a 47% winning rate (18/19)
Before that the 10-seed had a 44% winning rate (17/18)
Before that the 10-seed had a 45% winning rate (16/17)
Before that the 10-seed had a 50% winning rate (15/16)

If we assume that the West will on average be better than the East, I would think the 10-seed will win about 40% of their games, or something like a 29-43 record.

Can you really see Orlando winning less games than that to miss the playoffs entirely?


..

[zaymon]

Guys the draft isn't a zero sum game. We could miss the playoffs for one year and be better in 2021-2022. It's not like it is 5 years of losing on purpose. Frankly I don't think Clifford would let this team tank next year, but that doesn't mean they won't miss the playoffs.
For instance if we can trade AG to move up in this draft. Move Fournier at some point, move Aminu when he recovers value. Keep Vuc.
2021 line up:
Fultz/FA
Hayes/MCW
BJ Boston/FA
Isaac/Okeke
Vuc/Bamba

That is a team with remarkably more talent on both sides of the ball. Big deal we miss out on the opportunity to lose to Milwaukee or Boston or New Jersey this year.

Thing is we dont know if that team would be more talented. Odds are mostly stacked against new players. Look at players taken around Fournier and Gordon in the draft. Not many starters.

[Knightro]

And the Magic is on an upward trajectory.

Saying this with confidence doesn’t make it true.

In fact, the case could be made that the opposite is true. This roster as presently constructed has already hit its peak two years ago when they won 42.

This year’s incarnation is going to be without Isaac and may be without Augustin too.

There’s almost no scenario, even if they are healthier than last year, where this team is actually better than they were two years ago.

So no. I would staunchly disagree they’re on an upward trajectory.

[Tarheel]

Windhorst on the Hoop Collective saying that Fournier and Gordon are names that are out there as available. Said he could see us sell off our vets but hadn't heard as much on Vuc and Ross.

[yoyojw17]

And the Magic is on an upward trajectory.

Saying this with confidence doesn’t make it true.

In fact, the case could be made that the opposite is true. This roster as presently constructed has already hit its peak two years ago when they won 42.

This year’s incarnation is going to be without Isaac and may be without Augustin too.

There’s almost no scenario, even if they are healthier than last year, where this team is actually better than they were two years ago.

So no. I would staunchly disagree they’re on an upward trajectory.

Anything is possible. Internal growth alone for our young players would have made us that much better. but yeah... injuries knicked us again this year. and I honestly think we could have made that Bucks series a good one if we were healthy... and the entire we are "Just like last year" narrative wouldn't be as much of an issue. We were missing 4 players with defensive capabilities that could have been thrown at 2 of their top players. but those were not in the cards and a 1st round upset and or at least 6-7 game push wasn't possible.

Fultz and Bamba's growth will be great for us. The addition of Okeke (last year's pick) and a quality player at 15 ... could make a bigger difference than people think. Isaac being out is a huge blow to the season for sure... but were able to play well without him down the stretch. It could go in different directions.... all depending on how one values our players and their potential.

[jonbob17]

Guys the draft isn't a zero sum game. We could miss the playoffs for one year and be better in 2021-2022. It's not like it is 5 years of losing on purpose. Frankly I don't think Clifford would let this team tank next year, but that doesn't mean they won't miss the playoffs.
For instance if we can trade AG to move up in this draft. Move Fournier at some point, move Aminu when he recovers value. Keep Vuc.
2021 line up:
Fultz/FA
Hayes/MCW
BJ Boston/FA
Isaac/Okeke
Vuc/Bamba

That is a team with remarkably more talent on both sides of the ball. Big deal we miss out on the opportunity to lose to Milwaukee or Boston or New Jersey this year.

Thing is we dont know if that team would be more talented. Odds are mostly stacked against new players. Look at players taken around Fournier and Gordon in the draft. Not many starters.

The difference is we know who is the 2021 draft. We knew well in advance the 2014 draft that it was Wiggins, Parker, and Embiid, and then just rolls of the dice, now Wiggins hasn't panned out, and Parker had injuries. We know next years draft is full of wings, and probably close to 10 deep (including guards). We desperately need talent. There is one way to get it, and it's not by getting swept in the first round of the playoffs.
We are not close to the 6th seed. We are up against the salary cap. We were 5-31 against winning teams last year. Isaac is out for the season. COVID is going to wreck ticket sales. It's taking one year off due to injury, we move the guys we need to move anyways, and get the young guys some more minutes. Just like Golden State did last year, and now they are back in the mix.

[MagicFan4Lyfe]

Usually, I'm prepared for uneventful draft night but for some weird reason, I feel we're at a crossroad and we pick a direction.

Tomorrow night, we will either blow it up or push all of our chips in.

What chips?

We are going to stand pat, draft a wing at 15, this board will meltdown and we will run this garbage back again in a few weeks.

About 7 teams compete for a championship.
The Orlando Magic compete for the 8th seed!

This organization is so stupid they would actually hang a banner for 8th seed appearances.

I agreed with most except the correction.

Look: there are about 10 teams that would love to be were the Magic is now. And the Magic is on an upward trajectory.

PBO Weltman is on record that he intends to draft at #15, but will listen to offers. He is also on record that "the team must get better." Those are not the words of a pro-tanker. Collectively the Magic look to go all-in next offseason and this offseason will be about integrating Okeke and Mr. #15, upgrading Iwundu, Frazier, Ennis, and Clark's roster slots, and solidifying the PG depth chart. We fans should not expect more than that. (Yes Fournier and/or Gordon might be traded to make any of those things happen).


..

But those teams below Orlando are making potential moves to be better than us.

And I would disagree that we are on an upward trajectory. In fact, there is no trajectory right now- just plateau and in a year it will be a downward trajectory with no draft capital, no salary cap space....

Okeke will be a rookie coming off major knee surgery- I don't expect him to be a major contributor in a Clifford rotation this season. Maybe he develops but I think his ceiling is a solid starter not a needle mover.

I think after another season of being a treadmill team, the pressure will be on WeHam to either blow it up or get fired. But chances are that will happen when Alex Martins and the Devos family realize no one really cares about the Magic anymore and ticket sales are dwindling.

[MagicFan4Lyfe]

Windhorst on the Hoop Collective saying that Fournier and Gordon are names that are out there as available. Said he could see us sell off our vets but hadn't heard as much on Vuc and Ross.

Doubt it. Magic front office too afraid that they will lose their precious 8th seed if they do something bold.

[MagicFan4Lyfe]

The top of next years draft is projected to be way better than this year. Teams like okc know that and didnt want to compete next year.
This draft has
Edwards- might not like basketball wiggins personality
Ball- no d or shooting
Wiseman- 3 games in over a year to evaluate

Next year you have
Cunningham- controls game, cerebral
Green and Boston- scoring machines
Mobley- super skilled big
Kumunga, Johnson, Barnes, Williams lots of big wings

As a Magic fan, don't get your hopes up for 2021 draft. We going to be drafting 16 next year. Weltman and Hammond think they will find the next Giannis around 15-16 lol.

[MagicFan4Lyfe]

I could be a jerk and say “I told you so” to a number of posters here about this FO perpetuating mediocrity, while trying to pass it off as some amazing blueprint. I won’t.

The most obnoxious thing about this FO is their refusal to move on from Hennigan’s core. If not refusal, then their complete lack of urgency. They didn’t have a plan and that is now obvious. Watching another season of this, with slight variation, will be painful. I probably won’t.

Watching OKC amass assets at this level makes me sick. Why? Because their GM knows how their market operates and how to strategize a rebuild in 2020. Orlando did the opposite, and I know which organization I would place a bet on to become better quicker. hint: not us.

I don't understand fascination with OKC and their picks.

If you start reading about those picks, it's just bunch of rights to swap pick but who are also heavily protected. For crying out loud what's the point of making a trade for 2025 draft pick- right to swap that is top 10 lottery protected ?

Not to mention that one of recent trades included 2027 draft pick.

Almost all their picks come from Clippers and Miami, those teams are going to be contenders next few years so we talk about bunch of 20-30 first round picks


In mean time their roster now is:
Rubio ( last year of contract)
SGA ( UFA next year )
Oubre ( last year of contract)
Adams ( last year of contract)
Noel ( unrestricted FA right now)

That's pretty much it from bunch of players that even are NBA level players.

So they have army of draft picks and literally no NBA players but SGA left after 2020-21 is finished.

PIcks are cool, but purpose of picks is to get actual players, right now OKC has 5 nba players and 4 have every intention to leave them within 9 months

Simple: options.

Even if you don’t believe draft picks translate to possible quality nba talent (you don’t for some reason), OKC can still trade a majority of those picks for legitimate nba players.

Idgaf about their roster aside from SGA, and they probably don’t either. That’s not the point. They aren’t competing right now, they are acquiring assets to trade for nba talent they wouldn’t otherwise attract in their free agency market.

The fact you are incapable of seeing what they are doing is actually impressive density.

OR

You could just watch the same core of 3 players for 7 seasons, expect different results, and be perplexed when not much changes.

Rest of the universe: Hey Orlando, what you are doing is the definition of insanity: doing the same thing and expecting different results.

Weltman: Nah, I like this team.


GTFO.

[jonbob17]

We could miss the playoffs for one year and be better in 2021-2022.

Last season the 10-seed had a 35% winning rate
Before that the 10-seed had a 47% winning rate (18/19)
Before that the 10-seed had a 44% winning rate (17/18)
Before that the 10-seed had a 45% winning rate (16/17)
Before that the 10-seed had a 50% winning rate (15/16)

If we assume that the West will on average be better than the East, I would think the 10-seed will win about 40% of their games, or something like a 29-43 record.

Can you really see Orlando winning less games than that to miss the playoffs entirely?


..

If we give the young guys more minutes. We need to move AG while he still holds value (redundancy). Fournier needs to go at least before the deadline.
Looks like Atlanta is adding Hayward + others.
The Nets are clearly out of our range.
Who knows about Washington, but they should be much better.
At the moment no teams in the East are throwing it for next year, so they won't be as easy of outs. That will probably change as the year goes on.
Maybe Indiana takes a step back, but not to our level.

Even if we run it back I think we are playing 8 -10, which looks like a play in game. If we finished something like 12th in the East we are getting a really good player in the draft regardless of the lottery luck.