2020 Draft Day Discussion

[316Hornets]

I'm actually a huge fan of Carey. We've got some BIG dudes in the frontcourt now. PJ, Carey, and Miles.

[Diop]

his eyes are too close together but his dad looks scary as hell.

i would have preferred Tillman for the passing.

[bravor]

yeah i was not impressed when i saw him playing for the Us along with Haliburton (and the sg i forgot the name). He is younger so i guess this is why Kupchak picked him but i dont see the value here.

It would knda be funny if the #56pick becomes the best of the three.

[luciano-davidwesley]

I don't know much about Vernon Carey Jr. Scouts?

[Braggins]

Fwiw, Dean had Carey as one of his top late 1st / early 2nd steals and actually had him rated higher than Toppin. This pick seems very reasonable to me considering it fits a need and he has some upside.

[wilson115]

Dean likes Carey.

Read on Twitter

[Snidely FC]

Umm ugh

[UNCNYC]

Terry is gonna sit Doncic on the bench lmao

[_tijo_]

Your job Vernon is to get every rebound. Eat em up big dog.

[BigSlam]

I think I would have preferred Oturu, but I aint angry about Carey.

Carey seems more polished I guess - and is about 2 years younger.

[316Hornets]

I don't know much about Vernon Carey Jr. Scouts?

A stronger Cody Zeller

[Diop]

Oturu's dad was a ping pong player? Man we really missed out

[BigSlam]

So we drafted two guys who both wear #1, and Monk already wears #1.

Who gets the #1 next season?

3 men enter, one man leaves....

[MasterIchiro]

Carey projects as a backup big for matchups. Let's sign Christian Wood and get this show on the road.

[Vanderbilt_Grad]

Arturo's analytical model had Carey ranked really high as well.

[UNCNYC]

So far I am not happy with our draft. Would rather had Terry after a trade and Bey. So that would be Terry plus a future 1st and Tyler Bey. Carey I see being too slow and injury prone. Just not a good fit for the league

[Braggins]

I don't know much about Vernon Carey Jr. Scouts?

Heres Dean Demakis' take on Vernon Carey.

Imagine that there is a #5 RSCI freshman who posts a 34.1 PER as the best player on a top 5 team while not turning 19 until the end of the season in February. Then imagine that almost every other highly rated freshman in the class disappointed with thin hopes for the future in a draft with limited upperclass talent.

Typically, the one highly rated freshman who exceeded the hype would be the obvious #1 overall pick, and we would move on to debating #2. But not in 2020, where being a relatively unathletic big is considered to be a debilitating wart and Vernon Carey is projected as a 2nd rounder.

Anti-Okafor Bias

This is in part exacerbated by the tale of Jahlil Okafor, who shares a number of parallels to Vernon Carey. He was also an elite recruit for Duke, and led an excellent team that eventually won the championship in points, rebounds, and blocks. He largely lived up to the hype in college and was considered the favorite for #1 overall until the emergence of Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell dropped him to #3.

But on top of being in an archaic mold, Okafor also failed to translate his excellent NCAA production and has been a complete flop in the NBA.

Now it’s completely reasonable to view similar prospects through a skeptical lens. Low post scoring is not nearly as valuable as it used to be, and teams are now playing smaller lineups, emphasizing speed and skill over size and interior scoring.

That said, Okafor was a completely sane #3 pick by an intelligent GM just 5 years ago. Since there are no KAT or DAR level prospects in this draft, Vernon Carey would have been the clear #1 overall choice if this was 2015. While it’s fair to reduce the value of such a prospect in accordance with the evolution of the game, it seems like a massive overcorrection to drop Carey out of the first round. He is a different prospect than Okafor who will translate differently, develop differently, and is likely slightly better overall pre-draft:
Pts Reb Ast TOV Stl Blks 2P% 3PA FT%
Okafor 34.9 17.1 2.6 5 1.5 2.9 66.4% 0 51%
Carey 39.2 19.3 2.1 4.5 1.6 3.5 59.0% 1.5 67%

They are near doppelgängers statistically, except Carey has a significant edge in FT% and he shot 8/21 from 3 as a freshman while Okafor did not attempt any 3’s. And Carey was 2 months younger.

There’s no guarantee that Carey translates as poorly offensively and is as bad as Okafor defensively. He can do much better in both regards, and if he develops an outside shot to boot, it will look silly for being this low on him.

Can Vern Fit in the Modern NBA?

Plodding bigs are going out of style, but they are not extinct yet. Looking at this year’s playoff teams many of them start below the rim bigs, many of who slid in the draft: Brook Lopez, Marc Gasol, Myles Turner, Jarrett Allen, Nikola Vucevic, Ivica Zubac, Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert, Jusuf Nurkic. And Draymond Green missed the playoffs after being a mainstay in 5 straight finals.

Granted, Carey does have an underwhelming 7’0″ wingspan which is inferior to the aforementioned bigs, and he isn’t a passing savant like the biggest round 2 steals in Draymond, Jokic, and Gasol. So there are reasons to be skeptical that he will actually look like the correct #1 overall in retrospect.

Stylistically he is most similar to Enes Kanter, which is one of the least sexy molds in the modern NBA. But Kanter is the poster child for lead feet, and he was nevertheless able to start for a Portland team that went to the West Finals last year, and is now playing playoff rotation minutes for Boston. If Carey happens to develop into a better defensive player and/or shooter (both are very low bars to clear) while being similar in other regards, that’s a useful player.

Kanter was the #3 overall pick in 2011. The game is evolving, but let’s not quit on bigs this aggressively. There is still value to being large and good at basketball.

Ultimately it’s a tricky question how much to precisely de-value a player like Carey for his archaic mold. On one hand, he is sub-optimal centerpiece even if he hits his upside, and it’s difficult to justify taking players like him in the top 3 given the risk that he either flops completely like Okafor or is heavily flawed like Kanter in spite of his productive box score.

But how far can he reasonably be dropped? It’s unlikely that he flops as hard as Okafor, and it’s pessimistic to project his flaws to be as extreme as Kanter’s. Carey is really good at basketball in a draft where the lottery is full of guys who fit a modern mold but just aren’t that good and need to overachieve in order to have a decent NBA career.

Why Not Take Him at the Toppin of the Draft?

The most direct comparison for Carey among lottery prospects is Obi Toppin, who currently is ranked #4 on ESPN’s mock. Obi has similar dimensions (Carey is approximately 1″ taller and longer). Toppin is much more vertically explosive and better at finishing, but other than that Carey destroys him.

Carey is a much better rebounder and a better shot blocker. Both struggle to defend in space, but Carey has more hope of learning long term because he is 3 years younger and Obi’s vertical explosiveness has not translated to lateral competence. Toppin is the slightly better shooter and passer now, but Carey is a favorite to surpass him in both in 3 years. And in spite of Obi’s super athleticism, Carey has more skill in the paint as he was able to score more points at just slightly lower efficiency in spite of the age gap and tougher competition.

And to cap it all off: Carey was a top 5 recruit while Obi was a 20 year old redshirt for a mid-major team. Obi is getting more attention because of his athleticism, but he has an incomplete athletic package since it doesn’t translate to defense, and collectively Carey is the clearly superior talent.

It’s difficult to say exactly how heavily to de-value Carey’s elite statistics and pedigree due to his dated mold. But it is difficult to justify ranking Obi Toppin above him, given that Obi shares his key flaws and brings fewer strengths to the table.

If Carey was the top 5 prospect and Obi was the early 2nd rounder, that would make much more sense than their current rankings . Which isn’t to say it would be accurate to flip them, but it would at least feel sane. For now, let’s conservatively say that Carey belongs in the lottery at least slightly above Toppin, and Carey ranking so much lower is a major inefficiency in the current rankings.

[Rich4114]

Not even on UNC’s list! But I imagine he was docked big time for being from Duke.

[LofJ]

**** you Mark Cuban, you ruined the dream!!!

[Rays Pompadour]

Not a fan of this pick at all. I think Carey is not NBA ready. Skill or body wise. Not quick enough and has an old game

I think you're seeing him in a Duke uni. Carey will surprise, I tell you. One of the biggest struggles with young bigs is footwork and feeling of body in space. Carey has both naturally. He has three point range and handles are okay. FT stroke is solid. Carey is an atrocious passer, and is horrible recognizing double-teams. Drives coaches crazy. But I like the pick. Smart kid with great work ethic and has a terrific upside.