MGB8 wrote:So Patrick Williams is interesting in that you have a real difference between the stats, the "overall eye test," and then "the flashes" and maybe "the pedigree."
The stats from college are unimpressive. He didn't have a frosh impact - guys like Stanley Johnson, Justise Winslow, MKG, Pascal Siakam, Tobias Harris, Maurice Harkless all averaged 12 or more points per contest. Very good FT shooter, though, which distinguishes him from those guys, and his frosh stats are comparable to Oubre, RHJ, Nassir Little, so there have been recent high draft picks with similar stat profiles.
But the biggest difference is between the "overall eye test" (which matches the draft profile from the Stepian) and the "flashes." If you just go watch FSU youtubes (I watched a lot because of Vassell) - Williams comes across as a small, "energy" (6'7/6'8) 4. His play lacks the short area quickness, change-of-direction, and "bend" that you want from a modern wing . While Vassell played like a wing - Williams played like a forward - but without big rebounding numbers (Vassell and Williams had nearly identical per36 rebounding). Obviously, Vassell was a sophomore vs. Williams a frosh, and Vassell wasn't as good as Williams as a frosh.
But when you look at the highlights of just Patrick Williams, you start to see flashes of something more. Flashes of (inconsistent) ball handling and passing ability. Flashes of shooting ability both and off-the-catch and the bounce. Flashes of bend and short area quickness on both ends. Flashes of a guy who could play the 3 in the NBA.
It's unusual to have this kind level of difference between the "guy you usually see" and the "flashes." Most of the time, you see a guy who looks like the same player, but just better - the better pass, the shot that goes in, the better handle (think Tony Snell on those occasions where his shot was going in and he was playing with confidence). With Williams, it's almost like two different players . Here's hoping the "flashes" are the flower that's just about to bloom.
It’ll be interesting to see this whole draft pan out. I spent less time checking out PW than every other guy in the lottery. My quick impression is:
- He’ll play steady minutes right away, off the bench.
- He has no flaws/red flags.
- He has excellent size and athleticism, should be a multi-position NBA defender.
So honestly, this was probably a smart pick beyond the alarming college role and stats. Because literally every other guy I deep scanned in this draft had atleast one major red flag, and it’s been all we talked about the last 6 months - how flawed this draft is at the top.
Williams can very well become a jack-of-all-trades bench guy. I’m not nervous about him totally busting and being a locker-room drama though. I see legit chances of the top-3 becoming huge headaches if they don’t get the minutes they’d like, or shoot terrible 3P% and get asked to dial down shot selection.
And Hayes, Okongwu, Okoro and Deni also seemed like luke-warm role-player projects. All are questionable shooters. If Hayes does pan out, he’ll be the best I think. But he was also a tough call, favoring one hand, rather lame first-step and foot-speed, a funky “showcase” situation at his club, and pretty mediocre 3P shooting. He’ll be glad to have Rose as a locker-room mentor.