Ball Don't Lie: The LaMelo Ball Thread

[BigSlam]

...I want him firing away, with better shot selection, so teams have to respect him from 3.

Teams don't respect him taking 30 footers, they WANT him taking 30 footers. HIs results on these types of shots are so poor that it is advantageous to the opposing team for him to take them.

[James Gatz]

Super long read but if you want to really get a sense of Lamelo's game you should read PD Webb's piece.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YLz062oAM0o4-6REHGIkPg0nghtCA3HuusIoXOu34Rs/edit

[BigSlam]

Looks like Melo will be wearing #2.

[James Gatz]

...I want him firing away, with better shot selection, so teams have to respect him from 3.

Teams don't respect him taking 30 footers, they WANT him taking 30 footers. HIs results on these types of shots are so poor that it is advantageous to the opposing team for him to take them.

It really depends on how well he shoots from there. I tried to look it up but wasn't able to see how well he shot from various 3pt ranges. Trae taking 30 footers helps because it draws defenders even further out. If Lamelo can hit them at a similar rate then it's a positive.

For his rookie year, I want him to take those shots to see if they are worthwhile keeping in his game. If he shoots 15% then obviously he should cut them out. If he shoots 32% then its a different story.

All I want is him to not take those shots at the beginning of the shot clock where it's likely a better shot can be had.

I'm looking for flashes next season. He's certainly going to be a minus player overall for us. Lamelo as a rookie does not make us better.

[amcoolio]

[Liver_Pooty]

The dude even exudes confidence in his picture. I dig it.

[BigSlam]

It really depends on how well he shoots from there. I tried to look it up but wasn't able to see how well he shot from various 3pt ranges.

He shot 25% on 6.7 3PA's per game - that's a huge sample size. How much more do you need to acknowledge that his shooting sucks, but he doesn't seem to know it and keeps taking them?

Trae taking 30 footers helps because it draws defenders even further out

Trae, Steph and Dame are taking them..........BECAUSE THEY CAN MAKE THEM!!!

[amcoolio]

It really depends on how well he shoots from there. I tried to look it up but wasn't able to see how well he shot from various 3pt ranges.

He shot 25% on 6.7 3PA's per game - that's a huge sample size. How much more do you need to acknowledge that his shooting sucks, but he doesn't seem to know it and keeps taking them?

Trae taking 30 footers helps because it draws defenders even further out

Trae, Steph and Dame are taking them..........BECAUSE THEY CAN MAKE THEM!!!

Look at his 3PT splits last 10 games in Aussieland, when he stopped kicking out his feet and tightened his form. That was also a year ago. I'd rather him be confident in taking these shots than pussyfooting around like Simmons, MKG or Zeller

[James Gatz]

It really depends on how well he shoots from there. I tried to look it up but wasn't able to see how well he shot from various 3pt ranges.

He shot 25% on 6.7 3PA's per game - that's a huge sample size. How much more do you need to acknowledge that his shooting sucks, but he doesn't seem to know it and keeps taking them?

Trae taking 30 footers helps because it draws defenders even further out

Trae, Steph and Dame are taking them..........BECAUSE THEY CAN MAKE THEM!!!

I don't think you can really say "his shooting sucks" based purely on 80 3PA he took in 12 games. It's a bigger context when you factor in FT%, 3PA, and shooting touch.

Lets put those 80 shots in perspective:
- 4 of those 80 were on full court heaves
- If he had just made 5 more shots he would have shot 33% (25/76)
- 5 shots isn't really significant
- 80 shots is too small a sample size

I agree that he needs to improve his shooting. It's going to be his swing skill. If he's an average shooter then he's the best pick in the draft. My point is that his confidence to take shots shouldn't be drilled out of him. If he can hit 30 footers, then he should take them. He has shown the ability to take/make them. I'd want to see actually numbers before I say it is without a doubt a horrible shot.

I'm more worried about shot selection which is tied into his 30 foot bombs. Those shouldn't be the norm. They should only be taken when it's the best shot given. For all we know he's better with those deep shots than is he when does the cat/mouse pull up contested 3.

From the article I posted early concludes the shooting section this way. It's definitely a nice overview of how we could potentially look at his shooting.

Spoiler:

In addition to being a 80% shooter across available ft stats Melo has a remarkable floater touch across my years of observation. He kills the usefulness of some synergy shooting proxies because he took a buuuunch of 18 foot floaters and the system does not know how to place that info. I don’t want to give the impression that the super floater is automatic, but it sure is a sign that there is something there with Melo’s shootings. I’ve been asking around this cycle on Melo’s shooting and his priors, and I've gotten every answer along the spectrum from exceedingly optimistic to ****’s ****. Search your feelings for what you believe about indicators. Think about your thinking on good vs bad technical coaching and its effects on later professional development. Think about how many bad reps have been carved into a shooter’s psyche, and how much grinding a player development would need to do to smooth the imperfections out. How many coaches would you trust with a jumper rebuild, and how many are likely destinations. Or maybe you think shooting is a stable and largely inherited skill. I’m of the position labeled ‘lukewarm believer’, but I also don’t think it will determine Melo’s value as much as other skills. Take from that what you will.

[BigSlam]

Look at his 3PT splits last 10 games in Aussieland, when he stopped kicking out his feet and tightened his form.

Last 10 games in Australia - 3PA/3PM/%:

1 of 11 = .091%
4 of 7 = .571%
1 of 5 = .200%
5 of 11 = .455%
2 of 9 = .222%
2 of 5 = .400%
2 of 7 = .286%
1 of 7 = .143%
1 of 5 = .200%
0 of 2 = .000%

Are you trying to help your point, or hurt it?

[BigSlam]

I don't think you can really say "his shooting sucks" based purely on 80 3PA he took in 12 games.

Almost half of his FGA's (211) were 3PA's (86). That's a huge sample size and indicator of his approach to shooting/scoring.

It's not saying his shooting sucks, his shooting DOES suck - that's just a fact. It's not like that's a secret.

My point is that his confidence to take shots shouldn't be drilled out of him. If he can hit 30 footers, then he should take them.

That's a big part of the problem! He thinks he can make them and that he takes them at really ill advised times (early in the shot clock etc). That absolutely needs to be drilled out of him because it hurts his team. Badly.

We might as well tell Biz to start taking 3's from half court.....if he "thinks" he can make them. Whether or not he actually can is irrelevant, so long as he has the confidence to take them.

I'm more worried about shot selection which is tied into his 30 foot bombs. Those shouldn't be the norm. They should only be taken when it's the best shot given. For all we know he's better with those deep shots than is he when does the cat/mouse pull up contested 3.

Keep in mind, this shot selection (and lack of success) isn't related exclusively to his 3PA's. He also takes some of the worst floaters in the history of floaters. He takes floaters from a foot inside the 3pt line - which is just a terrible shot (especially if he can't make them).

It's another reason I think he and Tae will be a train wreak together - because neither of them have a mid range game.

[Radu_Hornets]

Look at his 3PT splits last 10 games in Aussieland, when he stopped kicking out his feet and tightened his form.

Last 10 games in Australia - 3PA/3PM/%:

1 of 11 = .091%
4 of 7 = .571%
1 of 5 = .200%
5 of 11 = .455%
2 of 9 = .222%
2 of 5 = .400%
2 of 7 = .286%
1 of 7 = .143%
1 of 5 = .200%
0 of 2 = .000%

Are you trying to help your point, or hurt it?

From what I heard, it’s more a question of shoot selection than being a bad shooter.

A bad shot selection can be improved more easily than being a purely bad shooter

[JMAC3]

He is not a good shooter right now, but guess what. You can learn to shoot. You can't teach his height. You can't teach his passing instinct.

I trust our coaching staff to develop his shooting, it may not be this year, but they will.

[countryboi]

what did ball shot from FT? thats normally a good indicator of long term success shooting the ball

[powerforward]

I read that his free throw pct is 80-83%
not sure how accurate that is- mike scmidt said 80 and I read somewhere else its 83

[James Gatz]

Almost half of his FGA's (211) were 3PA's (86). That's a huge sample size and indicator of his approach to shooting/scoring.

He takes floaters from a foot inside the 3pt line - which is just a terrible shot (especially if he can't make them).

It's another reason I think he and Tae will be a train wreak together - because neither of them have a mid range game.

86, if you include his preseason game which you are here, is a small sample size. For instance, Justice Winslow took 118 3s in college and hit them at 42%. In the pros he's shot in then 33-34% range. We can't solely look at 3PT taken in the NBL at such a low sample.

The floater game is worth discussing. Again, small sample, but he hit those floaters at around 45%. This is Kemba/CJ level from midrange level. I don't think he'll make them at near that rate in the pros but it's an encouraging sign. Due to his form, he'll be relying on that floater to be his midrange game.

Edit: I do agree the ratio of how many 3s to 2s he takes is something we can gather. It's definitely an indicator. I'm happy with that type of split if he can improve to be an average shooter.

[Hornet Mania]

what does ball shot from FT? thats normally a good indicator of long term success shooting the ball

72% with Illawarra, not particularly great for a guard.

Here's all his stats during that time for reference: https://www.basketball-reference.com/international/players/lamelo-ball-1.html

Personally I don't think he can shoot now and I'm highly skeptical that it's fixable. I hope the reports that he is a gym rat are true because that's exactly what he needs to be in order to fix his shot. He needs a Kemba-like transformation in order to reach the star status that some anticipate.

I'm mostly refraining from bringing down the mood on Ball, I do sincerely hope I'm wrong about him being mostly flash with little substance. I was wrong about Cam Newton (thought he was just going to be another Tebow) so I'm hoping Ball is the second prospect I'm sure will be terrible who ends up owning the city.

[BigSlam]

Looks like Melo will be wearing #2.

Looks like Lonzo is putting juice on Monk to give up the #1 to Melo.

[LofJ]

LaMelo will take the 1 the season after next if Monk doesn't make the leap we've all been waiting for.

[James Gatz]

what does ball shot from FT? thats normally a good indicator of long term success shooting the ball

72% with Illawarra, not particularly great for a guard.

If you factor in SPIRE, NBL, and Lithuania then he shot 337/424 or .794. It's also worth noting that while shots in different leagues would effect FG% that FT% would be unaffected by competition.

79% is not elite but it's still a solid number.



Also, it's totally possible he doesn't shoot at the next level. I want to be clear where I land. I'm optimistic but would say it's more likely he doesn't become an above average NBA shooter than he does become one.