Who makes the jump?

[dckingsfan]

Code: Select all

                   Age   MP      TS%    3P%    AST%   TOV%   DRB%   STL%   BLK%   WS/48   VORP
Isaac Bonga        20   1250   0.608   0.352    7.9   17.6   13.8   1.7    1.5    0.068   -0.3
Troy Brown         20   1782   0.524   0.341   14.1   10.4   19.6   2.2    0.3    0.065    0.3
Rui Hachimura      21   1444   0.535   0.287    8.8    8.0   17.0   1.2    0.5    0.060   -0.4
Jerome Robinson    22    503   0.516   0.349   11.3   10.8   13.8   1.4    1.6    0.022   -0.1
Moritz Wagner      22    835   0.638   0.313    9.8   17.7   22.2   1.6    2.0    0.099   -0.1
Thomas Bryant      22   1147   0.649   0.407   11.1   10.2   23.1   1.0    3.7    0.164    1.2
Garrison Mathews   23    227   0.691   0.413    5.8   10.1    9.0   1.6    0.4    0.131    0.1

[dckingsfan]

note: I left in Matthews... he may not be back but I hope so. I didn't add any rookies or players that weren't on the team last year.

You can see we have bunch of pretty young players that could take a jump.

[nate33]

I think it will be Troy Brown. Right now, he's at the Evan Turner level - a well-rounded player who is half decent at most things but not a good enough specialist at any one thing to be a significantly plus player. But if Brown improves incrementally at everything just a bit more (ball handling, defense, shooting), he will suddenly become pretty good at everything and be the type of player who can fit into any system and do anything needed - sort of like Gordon Hayward, or Iguadola (minus the elite defense).

I think Bryant already made the jump and now it's just a matter of getting incrementally better defensively every year.

[doclinkin]

note: I left in Matthews... he may not be back but I hope so. I didn't add any rookies or players that weren't on the team last year.

You can see we have bunch of pretty young players that could take a jump.

Mathews is signed on a 2-way contract.

[dckingsfan]

I think it will be Troy Brown. Right now, he's at the Evan Turner level - a well-rounded player who is half decent at most things but not a good enough specialist at any one thing to be a significantly plus player. But if Brown improves incrementally at everything just a bit more (ball handling, defense, shooting), he will suddenly become pretty good at everything and be the type of player who can fit into any system and do anything needed - sort of like Gordon Hayward, or Iguadola (minus the elite defense).

I think Bryant already made the jump and not it's just a matter of getting incrementally better defensively every year.

I think Troy will make some incremental jumps too.

But for me, I think it is going to be Bonga with the biggest jump. I think he has added enough strength to become a pretty darn good defender at the wing. I think he is going to get consistent with his 3 point shot. And that is going to make him a good 3&D guy 2-4. I think his Assist/TO ratio will bounce back to where it was the previous year and past - maybe 1.5/1. So, better D, better 3 & less TOs.

[payitforward]

Code: Select all

                   Age   MP      TS%    3P%    AST%   TOV%   DRB%   STL%   BLK%   WS/48   VORP
Isaac Bonga        20   1250   0.608   0.352    7.9   17.6   13.8   1.7    1.5    0.068   -0.3
Troy Brown         20   1782   0.524   0.341   14.1   10.4   19.6   2.2    0.3    0.065    0.3
Rui Hachimura      21   1444   0.535   0.287    8.8    8.0   17.0   1.2    0.5    0.060   -0.4
Jerome Robinson    22    503   0.516   0.349   11.3   10.8   13.8   1.4    1.6    0.022   -0.1
Moritz Wagner      22    835   0.638   0.313    9.8   17.7   22.2   1.6    2.0    0.099   -0.1
Thomas Bryant      22   1147   0.649   0.407   11.1   10.2   23.1   1.0    3.7    0.164    1.2
Garrison Mathews   23    227   0.691   0.413    5.8   10.1    9.0   1.6    0.4    0.131    0.1

Great thread.

I feel a lot of confidence -- or optimism or whatever you want to call it -- about Bonga, Bryant & Brown.

Bonga was so good already & so young to be so good that, to me at least, he seems virtually certain to make more strides.

Bryant had an unbelievable season in 2018-19. This year, he maintained his level in everything but scoring where his efficiency dropped slightly. But, a) it was still outstanding, b) it dropped on higher usage & c) he actually improved his 3-pt. shooting -- much higher % on significantly higher volume.

Right now, Bryant is one of the best offensive Centers in the league -- it's right there in the numbers. & he has done it two years in a row, so there's reason to be confident about his staying at that level. If he can keep improving incrementally on defense, by working hard & gaining more experience, wow....

I'll leave Brown for another post.

I have no confidence in Wagner or Robinson -- & not much hope either, alas.

I have a little confidence in Rui -- i.e. I do think he'll improve, I just wonder/worry how much? But, I have a lot more hope in his case than either Wagner or Robinson.

As to Garrison Mathews... it's really all hope! We've only got 227 minutes to base anything on, & that's not enough to engender confidence. OTOH, the good news is that even if he doesn't improve much, if he gets a bunch more minutes & posts results like those of last year... we've really got us something. He was terrific! But... we'll have to see.

[payitforward]

I think it will be Troy Brown. Right now, he's at the Evan Turner level....

What a very interesting comparison! A couple of points:

1. Actually, Brown is already better than Turner. His career TS% is higher, he scores more points, he's a better & higher-volume 3-pt. shooter. Yet, he turns it over much less than Turner & gets way more steals.

2. Turner's career numbers include his peak years, while Troy is only 21. Turner's best year was probably 15-16 w/ Boston -- yet, Troy had better numbers in his 2d year!

- a well-rounded player who is half decent at most things but not a good enough specialist at any one thing to be a significantly plus player.... if Brown improves incrementally at everything just a bit more (ball handling, defense, shooting), he will suddenly become pretty good at everything and be the type of player who can fit into any system and do anything needed - sort of like Gordon Hayward, or Iguadola (minus the elite defense).

Actually he is already exceptionally good at one aspect of the game: rebounding. He gets almost 50% more boards than an average NBA wing.

In fact, on the overall numbers he is already a "plus player." To begin touching his potential, he needs to improve in two areas:

The first is 3-point shooting -- he at least needs to get to average for an NBA wing. Last year he was at 34.1% on 4 attempts/40 minutes. Average for a wing is 36.2%/6.5 attempts. Doesn't seem unattainable for him to surpass that -- especially since he improved his 2d year.

The second area where he needs to improve is defense. I think this is a bigger problem than his 3 pt. shooting.

This kid turned 21 less than 4 months ago. I'd say there's every reason to have a lot of confidence in his future. So, I'm with nate on this: I expect the biggest jump this year to come from Troy Brown -- & wouldn't that be great?

[WallToWall]

I'll make no bones about it. I have an irrational expectation and desire to see Rui make the huge jump. He will make a jump, but I also think that, realistically, it will be Bonga who makes the most meaningful (hence, biggest, IMO) jump. If he is able to cut down on his fouls, and I think he will, because he is now a veteran player who has seen a thing or two, then he will be able to stay on the floor a lot longer. If he can also cut down on his turn overs, and I think this is the second aspect of his game where experience just makes him better, then he becomes a much more positive player on the floor. Just being on the floor makes his defensive presence that much more effective. If he spends all his time in the off-season just learning one offensive move/shot, then all of a sudden, he becomes a huge positive on the offensive side. Out of all those listed, I would expect Bonga's numbers to make the most movement in the positive direction.

[NatP4]

Hachimura will take a huge step forward with his 3pt shooting, more attempts and better%. Also expect him to become a better defender after a year of experience and more confidence.

Brown is an easy choice to make the jump. He impacts the game in so many ways, assists, rebounding, steals, doesn’t turn it over. He will make a huge jump this year in his defensive impact, guarding on the perimeter for us, and will boost his 3pt% again to improve that overall efficiency.

The future of the wizards changes drastically if they hit on these two. My only real question about Rui is whether or not he can become a decent rebounder or not.

[NatP4]

Major sell on Robinson and buy on Mathews. The only factor here is Brooks playing the better player.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

My guess if I'm picking one guy is Troy Brown Jr. I think he has gained the confidence needed to make "The Jump"!

[closg00]

Matthews if he could get the minutes

[Ruzious]

I think it really depends on who gets the most opportunities - which likely favors TJB, Bryant, and Rui - assuming they stay healthy. I'd like to say TJB, but I don't know what their plans are for him - which makes me a bit nervous for him. I'll go with Bryant - admittedly partly because he finished strong defensively - even though I realize it was a very small sample size.

[Hidden Eye]

Bonga is going to make the biggest jump, he could even start at the 4 if Davis didn't resign.

[dorianwrite]

Troy Brown makes the jump...depending on his jumps. Watching him take jump shots drives me nuts. Sometimes he's jumping forward. Sometimes he's fading backward. Sometimes his legs kick. Sometimes he shifts his body so that his shoulders aren't square, but his shooting shoulder is pronouncedly closer to the basket.

If he'd just square his shoulders and jump straight up and down every time, his shooting percentage from mid-range and 3 can't help but improve.

[DCZards]

I expect Troy to make the biggest jump. He's in his third year and he'll be given plenty of opportunities to contribute.

But if Bryant plays anything like he did in the bubble I could see him being the guy that makes the jump.

[doclinkin]

Brown makes a jump because players do that in their 3rd year. The game begins to slow down for them. He has been grooving his 3pt shot, and working on his lateral speed. He looks leaner and faster with a stronger core. He's already one of the players on the team with the highest BBIQ, and has taken a leadership role with the young crew, despite being one of the younger players. Yeah he doesn't finish on the interior, that won't change, but everything else that he can work on will improve.

Bryant takes a jump back to his previous improvement curve. No one's development was more negatively impacted by IT's antics than Bryant, who suffered at both ends. If Wall is leading this team then Bryant will get touches in the P&R. His energy level is good, especially when he sees some success. He is still footslow with a high center of gravity, but he works hard and is excitable out there. He will get back on track to what he was doing when he was playing well, and while bigs develop slowly, he seems poised to get it. ALSO: he will get play time, starting, where Brown is still trying to find where he fits. So far the team runs best when Brown is in the 2nd unit. Bryant is our only starting calibre center.

(Caveat, Bryant will get starts and minutes, so long as Brooks doesn't do something stupid with the veteran RoLo).

Bonga makes a jump, though he can't jump over a laptop. Still, all he needs to do is groove a catch and shoot 3 and he will prove reliable and fit nicely with the starters. Refs are human, humans respect offense. If Bonga can hit the corner 3, then everything else he already does well will look better to refs and he will be less vulnerable to whistles. He will look more skilled. He is highly skilled, he just looks awkward because of his body type. Still, he has been working on his body, and added 10 lbs of muscle between shut down and the bubble, and has talked about his strength work and nutrition. That can only help.

I hope however the MIP candidate is John Wall. I hope the hurt feelings smooth out and he shows up on court with a rejuvenated game and new wrinkles. What a hell of a story it would be if a 5 time all-star made a jump and stuffed the words down the throats of every damn person, writer, pundit or fan, who thinks he is not worth that contract and is overpaid. Imagine what he would look like as a player who you would have to say, yeah actually, he earned every penny as soon as he was able to get back on the court. I'd like to see him be a contender for MIP and MVP in the same year. I personally feel, hey, it's possible. The thing that has held him back in the past were not his athleticism, aptitude, desire, size, vision, etc. but were a) health (bone spurs and fatigue injuries from too many minutes) and b) fixable aspects: shot selection, movement off the ball, team defense, and c) depth of the team which led him to play too many minutes with no back up. Now, we have back up.

Dream for a second what it would mean if it was John who made the Jump. Pretty damn good, yeah?

[FAH1223]

My gut says Troy for all the reasons already stated. He has the highest basketball IQ of all those young guys too.

[NatP4]

I think Bonga and Bryant fall into the “actually good” category, Mathews would also if he played more. Brown Jr will enter that group this year.

Hachimura takes some nice steps but won’t get there this year. The lack of rebounding and defensive awareness will still be an issue.

The wiz might have a nice list of “actually good” players this year:

Bryant
Beal
Neto
Bertans
Brown Jr
Bonga
Mathews
Wagner (iffy)

Avdija, Hachimura, Robinson, Wall, and Gill are the wildcards.

[nate33]

I think Bonga and Bryant fall into the “actually good” category, Mathews would also if he played more. Brown Jr will enter that group this year.

Hachimura takes some nice steps but won’t get there this year. The lack of rebounding and defensive awareness will still be an issue.

The wiz might have a nice list of “actually good” players this year:

Bryant
Beal
Neto
Bertans
Brown Jr
Bonga
Mathews
Wagner (iffy)

Avdija, Hachimura, Robinson, Wall, and Gill are the wildcards.

I'd like to see Mathews produce for more minutes against a team with a scouting report on him before I'd put him into the "actually good" category.

Wagner is definitely not "actually good" yet. He looked good for a while early in the season, but then everyone figured out that he was just a flopper on D and they started to abuse him. In his defense, he did get hurt and never really was the same after. I can't be 100% sure if his poor play in the second half was injury-related or scouting report related.

I think Ish is actually good - at least when matched up against opposing benches.