Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor)

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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#61 » by 70sFan » Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:46 am

Odinn21 wrote:And this 1st episode is full of exactly what I was talking about.

1962 Chamberlain; 50.4 ppg season, then he took the Celtics, the more complete and the better team on overall, to a game 7 with 33.6 ppg.
If Chamberlain was a player like he's claiming, how the hell on earth Chamberlain didn't went for his usual average and didn't lose the series in 5?
How on earth the team survived an elimination game in which Chamberlain scored 32 points on 33.4 tsa, Arizin scored 28 points on 29.1 tsa, Meschery scored 27 points on 23.3 tsa. What a black hole! He gives up on his usual points to win... Tsk tsk...

Also, his per possession numbers overlook the part a player being human. Chamberlain averaged 50.4 ppg in 1962 seasons and played in all minutes. Let's pick a player that averaged 28.7 per75 and drop him in 1961-62 regular season if he could play in all minutes like Chamberlain did and would get 50+ points per game. The usage rates are more balanced in higher paces. The extra possessions between paces are distributed. Fatigue is a real factor. Attempting 25 shots in a 80 possession game and 37 shots in a 120 possession game is different.
And it was not like Chamberlain lacked athleticism. To this day, he's still one of the most athletic basketball players ever if not the most.

Yeah, we're off to a rocky start...

I think this video was more to show listeners that Ben doesn't care about raw boxscore stats and that they can be misleading. As others said, it's an introduction to the project, not the first video of project itself.

I also have mixed feelings about this video though, because I hoped to see an analysis he usually does but he didn't try to do that with Wilt and Russell. I hoped to see in depth analysis of Russell's defensive dominance and talk about Wilt's offensive rebounding powerness but we didn't get that unfortunately. I think it's fair, because even with my collection of films we don't have enough footage from single seasons to make a clear analysis but I still hoped to see something like that.

Anyway, Walton's video is already available for highest tier of patrons and I expect it to see this weekend. I think that this video will be more in line of what I thought this project is meant to be.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#62 » by Odinn21 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:52 am

70sFan wrote:I think this video was more to show listeners that Ben doesn't care about raw boxscore stats and that they can be misleading. As others said, it's an introduction to the project, not the first video of project itself.

I also have mixed feelings about this video though, because I hoped to see an analysis he usually does but he didn't try to do that with Wilt and Russell. I hoped to see in depth analysis of Russell's defensive dominance and talk about Wilt's offensive rebounding powerness but we didn't get that unfortunately. I think it's fair, because even with my collection of films we don't have enough footage from single seasons to make a clear analysis but I still hoped to see something like that.

Anyway, Walton's video is already available for highest tier of patrons and I expect it to see this weekend. I think that this video will be more in line of what I thought this project is meant to be.

I know that the video is an intro. I don't see a reason to present Chamberlain in a way inaccurate manner to show he doesn't care about raw box score values.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#63 » by 70sFan » Tue Nov 24, 2020 12:11 pm

Odinn21 wrote:
70sFan wrote:I think this video was more to show listeners that Ben doesn't care about raw boxscore stats and that they can be misleading. As others said, it's an introduction to the project, not the first video of project itself.

I also have mixed feelings about this video though, because I hoped to see an analysis he usually does but he didn't try to do that with Wilt and Russell. I hoped to see in depth analysis of Russell's defensive dominance and talk about Wilt's offensive rebounding powerness but we didn't get that unfortunately. I think it's fair, because even with my collection of films we don't have enough footage from single seasons to make a clear analysis but I still hoped to see something like that.

Anyway, Walton's video is already available for highest tier of patrons and I expect it to see this weekend. I think that this video will be more in line of what I thought this project is meant to be.

I know that the video is an intro. I don't see a reason to present Chamberlain in a way inaccurate manner to show he doesn't care about raw box score values.

Let's just say that I strongly disagree with Ben's evaluation of Wilt's career and impact. He assumes a lot of things (which is reasonable given lack of data and footage) that I don't see as close to the truth. Let's be honest though - none of us know exactly how to evaluate players from the 1960s. I think that I've seen enough material to have strong opinion on some of them, but I realize that I can be wrong. The same thing has to be said about Ben, who admits that he can't be sure about his analysis about 1960s players.

By the way, Ben admited in comments that he ranks peak Wilt higher than peak Russell. This makes the essence of this video even harder to understand :-?
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#64 » by Odinn21 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 12:28 pm

70sFan wrote:
Odinn21 wrote:
70sFan wrote:I think this video was more to show listeners that Ben doesn't care about raw boxscore stats and that they can be misleading. As others said, it's an introduction to the project, not the first video of project itself.

I also have mixed feelings about this video though, because I hoped to see an analysis he usually does but he didn't try to do that with Wilt and Russell. I hoped to see in depth analysis of Russell's defensive dominance and talk about Wilt's offensive rebounding powerness but we didn't get that unfortunately. I think it's fair, because even with my collection of films we don't have enough footage from single seasons to make a clear analysis but I still hoped to see something like that.

Anyway, Walton's video is already available for highest tier of patrons and I expect it to see this weekend. I think that this video will be more in line of what I thought this project is meant to be.

I know that the video is an intro. I don't see a reason to present Chamberlain in a way inaccurate manner to show he doesn't care about raw box score values.

Let's just say that I strongly disagree with Ben's evaluation of Wilt's career and impact. He assumes a lot of things (which is reasonable given lack of data and footage) that I don't see as close to the truth. Let's be honest though - none of us know exactly how to evaluate players from the 1960s. I think that I've seen enough material to have strong opinion on some of them, but I realize that I can be wrong. The same thing has to be said about Ben, who admits that he can't be sure about his analysis about 1960s players.

By the way, Ben admited in comments that he ranks peak Wilt higher than peak Russell. This makes the essence of this video even harder to understand :-?

Not being able to sure due to lack of available any sort of content makes it really hard, that is the reason why I'm never sure on Mikan's spot on my goat list, similarly for Bob Cousy and Bob Pettit even though to a lesser extent.
Though, Taylor's opinions about some players as Chamberlain, Robertson, Abdul-Jabbar and a few more can easily be disproven. For some reason his sense is off about their value and situation.
I mean it's not like "he must see things as I do". He's just off.

As having peak Chamberlain over peak Russell, we should wait out and see the video if he has an explanation for it while referring to intro. I expect to see him hit the middle ground with "1967 Chamberlain best (or better parts) of both worlds" type of argument.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#65 » by freethedevil » Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:45 pm

70sFan wrote:
Odinn21 wrote:And this 1st episode is full of exactly what I was talking about.

1962 Chamberlain; 50.4 ppg season, then he took the Celtics, the more complete and the better team on overall, to a game 7 with 33.6 ppg.
If Chamberlain was a player like he's claiming, how the hell on earth Chamberlain didn't went for his usual average and didn't lose the series in 5?
How on earth the team survived an elimination game in which Chamberlain scored 32 points on 33.4 tsa, Arizin scored 28 points on 29.1 tsa, Meschery scored 27 points on 23.3 tsa. What a black hole! He gives up on his usual points to win... Tsk tsk...

Also, his per possession numbers overlook the part a player being human. Chamberlain averaged 50.4 ppg in 1962 seasons and played in all minutes. Let's pick a player that averaged 28.7 per75 and drop him in 1961-62 regular season if he could play in all minutes like Chamberlain did and would get 50+ points per game. The usage rates are more balanced in higher paces. The extra possessions between paces are distributed. Fatigue is a real factor. Attempting 25 shots in a 80 possession game and 37 shots in a 120 possession game is different.
And it was not like Chamberlain lacked athleticism. To this day, he's still one of the most athletic basketball players ever if not the most.

Yeah, we're off to a rocky start...

I think this video was more to show listeners that Ben doesn't care about raw boxscore stats and that they can be misleading. As others said, it's an introduction to the project, not the first video of project itself.
Ah yes, box score stats. Its box score stats, Russell joining a team that was perenially nuetra befpre he came and then getting taken to 7 by Wilt+garbage is most definitley jsut a matter of the boxscore lmao.
I also have mixed feelings about this video though, because I hoped to see an analysis he usually does but he didn't try to do that with Wilt and Russell. I hoped to see in depth analysis of Russell's defensive dominance and talk about Wilt's offensive rebounding powerness but we didn't get that unfortunately. I think it's fair, because even with my collection of films we don't have enough footage from single seasons to make a clear analysis but I still hoped to see something like that.

Anyway, Walton's video is already available for highest tier of patrons and I expect it to see this weekend. I think that this video will be more in line of what I thought this project is meant to be.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#66 » by freethedevil » Tue Nov 24, 2020 3:02 pm

70sFan wrote:
freethedevil wrote:"I said past" not "at" And i was specifcally referring _pace_.

Then you are wrong, because:

- 1960 Celtics finished at 64.5 wins pace (65.4 wins pace with Russell - he missed one game),
- 1962 Celtics finished at 61.5 wins pace, so below 63, but with they were at 64.7 wins pace with Russell.
- 1965 Celtics finished at 63.6 wins pace ( 64.1 wins pace with Russell - he missed two games).

You are wrong, because Celtics played above 63 wins pace with Russell in three different seasons. How can you argue that?
What the hell are you talking about?

Ah, fair enough I was looking at expected w-l on the assumption they adjusted for 82.

Very well, let me ammend my previous statement, russell was never able to lead a 65 win team in the regular season. Reminder, 3/4ths of title teams in the last 15 years played 65 win basketball.

And this is the regular seqason, not the postseason where the russell celtics have several seasons where they regressed by more than any other team in history by a **** landslide. You really need to be special to get taken to 7 by three -srs teams with a team that without played like the 19-20 bucks played without giannis before you came.


No it is not harder. That's a random thing you've pulled out of thin air. Just as there are less "weak" teams to beat up, there are less "strong teams" to lose to or not beat up by an impressive margin.

This is just an opinion that is not backed up with any facts.
[b]you are the one arguing for a special curve not me, the burden of proof on you[/b]

1950s: 3
1960s: 7
1970s: 9
1980s: 15
1990s: 21
2000s: 15
2010s: 16
wait, you're telling me that there were less 60 win teams in a smaller league than there were in a bigger one? Gee I wonder why.
You can see how big of an effect expansion really had in the 1990s, but it's clear that 60 wins teams are more common in bigger league than in smaller one. It's mathematical fact that bigger outliers are more likely in bigger populations.
no ****, alas, this is meaningless for russell because russell did not have to worry about increasing thetotal number of 60 wins in the league, all he had to do was increase his own team's and you've presented like zero proof that was substantially harder in the 60's. Going by your own fancy list the number of 60 win teams in th 60's is actually perfectly on pace with what we wuld expect if induvdiual lift was easier/harder


Beyond, that....None of this should even matter. [b]ERA REALITVITY
does not give a **** about era-specifc difficulty.

You dont lower the celtics for a limited talent pool, dont be trying to use "well it was harder to lift teams in the 60's" as an excuse.[/b]
Bill Russell's best teams never had to face the 09 celtics, the 09 magic, and the 09 lakers in one season, all teams that could easily be argued for against ANY team bill russell played the entireity of his career.

No team faced 2009 Celtics, 2009 Magic and 2009 Lakers all in 2009 season, so what's your point?
:/ what? Did regular season scheduling not happen or...
Russell faced 55 wins Sixers, 54 wins Knicks and 55 wins Lakers in 1969 playoffs.

He faced 62 wins Sixers and 52 wins Lakers in 1968 (healthy Lakers were much better than that).
He faced 50 wins Warriors and 55 wins Lakers in 1962 (in much smaller league).
He faced 54 wins Warriors and 50 wins Hawks in 1960 (in much smaller league).

The idea that Russell faced no competition is ridiculous.
over 13 years on a team good enough for him to make title runs virtually every year he ran into...

three teams on par with the 89 cavs

There's absolutely zero reason to judge russell's team results on some sort of special curve. Realitive to era means realtive to era, not lets put everyone in the 60's higher just because.

It's not "just because" and if you don't understand that, then I suggest to take a few lessons from statistics.
I understand stastics fine, you're just not applying our shared knowledge well. Outliers can help AND hurt your srs, all-time greatness.

I also seem to understand how to make logically consistent arguments better. You're a champion of era relaitviity, none of this should matter.

Why is bill russell's peak "not close"? to Lebron's? Why is kareem's lower? The better questions is why either is close at all. Lebron went from a 40 win rs and then, even if we just cherrypick, his series against a magic team as good as ANYONE russell faced during the 60's firing on all cyllinders turning everything up.

2009 Magic certainly weren't on 1968 Sixers level.
Okay sure, they were a bit better than the magic. Mybe more like...checks notes...the 89 cavs. Incredible. And again, if ou're going to go re dhot from three, then that can very easily make up a +1 srs difference lmao. A variable that didn't exist in russell's time.
He erased 3-4 dunks/layups a game, created 10 OC a game, scored about a smuch as jordan did against the 89 knicks, and did all of that with unrivalled effiency and turnover economy while holding all his perimiter matchups multiple points below their rs aerage whle they were red-hot elsewhere.

We don't have enough footage to make such detailed description of each of Russell's series, but he had a lot of amazing series in his career. Are you counting series where he+a averagish third seed scraped by average or slightly above average teams as "amazing"? Because if so, russell westbrook had "a lot of amazing series" in his career. If not. Then actually russell's collection of "amazing" series is pretty thin, Even if i doubeld it to account for the playoff format. And by thin I mean, about as long a list as Kevin Garnett[b][/b]

In 2015, he was going toe to toe with a team better than anyone russell ever led or faced with tristan thompson and 60 million dollars of cap space on the bench before tye pulled their 73 win trump card.

What makes 2015 Warriors better than 1967 and 1968 Sixers? Your opinion?
You know, how well they did [b]REALTIVE TO ERA against their peers, that thing you keep purpotedly saying should be the way we measure players. I guess you could try to argue "playoff drop off" but...--looks at half of the celtics playoffs-- I wouldn't go that route if I were you.[/b]
When has russell done anything remotely comparable? None of his teams posted regular seasons or playoffs above the 2020 lakers, and he faced one legit contender en route to the title which ranged from being as good as the 2020 thunder(hawks) to being as good as the 89 cavs(a team peak jordan was able to at least challenge on merit with the incredible services of baby grant and pippen).

Again, you forget about 1968 Sixers which were far better than either one you mentioned. Besides, 1969 run alone has two better teams than 1989 Cavs. no it most certainly does not have two teams as good as the team tha played 63 win basketball when healthy. You could bring up injuries but, --squints at the 68 and 69 finals Russell's that are absolutely pivotal to his case against russell--, nah I dont think you wanna go there.

You could argue --playoff drop off-- but again, --looks at supposed 'prime russell''s rs dominant celtics-- you really dont wanna go there.
There is zero excuse for Russell not to be leading 91 bulls level teams season after season after season and yet he never even approached them once.

1960, 1962, 1964 and 1965 teams were among the best teams ever. [b]none of whom

He was repeatedly taken to game 7's by teams we wouldn't even consider "legit contenders" even if you literally just took their relative to era goodness and translated it to the modern game..

It happens. James quite a few series like that as well:

- 2012 vs Celtics which were 49 wins pace team,
- 2013 vs Pacers which were 49 wins pace team,
- 2018 vs Pacers which were 48 wins pace team.
All of whom are much better than the -srs warriors, the -srs hawks(twice). And it speaks volumes you need to take lebron in 2018 and 2013 when trying to compare him to russell at his supposed best.
With countless 6-games series that shouldn't have been that long.

You think he should be rated comparably in terms ofon court lift to lebron or Jordan, then why don't you prove it? Because just about every team he's played on significantly underperformed what you would expect from a player allegedly so good.


1968 and 1969 Celtics exceeded the expectations, so if anything his team got better results than their roster and record suggested.
They exceeded the expectations you would have of a player vastly worse than stephen curry, kevin garnett, tim duncan, magic or larry bird. The "expectations" when you're comparing russell to 40 win players aren't to be able to scrap a title against an even more banged up versio of the 89 cavs.

And remidner this is russell' BEST exampel of lift by far. I grant you, that russell's 69 does qualify as an atg season by any reasonable standard, but having one atg season isn't rmeotely impressive at this level, and the absilutely silly practice of curving all of russell's younger years on the basis of his regular seaosn srs doesn't hold any water if you bother to look what happene din the postseason. You want to argue 69 and 68 russsell were KG level seasons as the playoff lift suggest, be my guest, but then dont go brining up his "Outlier" regular season srs fro his mvp winning years as if his celtics didn't plummet twice as hard as the worst chokes of the robinson spurs.

68 and 69 are quite arguably the only times russell's lift resmebled that of an atg peak which isn't nearly enough if you're trying to argue he's comparable to lebron or jordan or even kareem on the court.

Yeah, 1960-64 period isn't all-time great level. I've heard it all :banghead:

Oh no, please dont tell me you're brining up when he went

8-5 against the

-> +1 SRS cincinatti Royals

->
+2 lakers[/i]
as an all time great season :(

I guess you could just ignore the playoffs, but oof, there goes 68, 69 and any imapct based argument for russell's supremacy over wilt.

It also represents an underperformance that makes the 2011 heat losing to the 2011 mavs look like the 2016 cavs beating the 2016 warriors except as opposed to just 1/4 of the playoffs, it represents [b]the entirety of them?
Could you imagine if thw 2011 heat's choke to the 2011 mavs x 2 for every single series of the playoffs? That's the supposedly ATG 63 Celtics.

Not only that, you counted 1962 season where Russell+a decent supporting cast were pushed to the brink by the
+1.8 lakers

THe +2.6 sixers


You brought up the 2018 cavs? The 2018 cavs were a more impressive postseason team than the 62 or 64 celtics, relative to era. Do you think thats becuase of Kevin Love?


So no, listing all those seasons as ATG makes no sense. Much like trying to argue russell was ever comparably valuable to lebron at his apex is utterly baseless. Go dunk on everyone else's resume or ring count if u so please, but lets stop baselessly claiming russell was unprecedented in terms of relative to era lift.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#67 » by 70sFan » Tue Nov 24, 2020 3:52 pm

freethedevil wrote:Ah, fair enough I was looking at expected w-l on the assumption they adjusted for 82.

Very well, let me ammend my previous statement, russell was never able to lead a 65 win team in the regular season. Reminder, 3/4ths of title teams in the last 15 years played 65 win basketball.

And this is the regular seqason, not the postseason where the russell celtics have several seasons where they regressed by more than any other team in history by a **** landslide. You really need to be special to get taken to 7 by three -srs teams with a team that without played like the 19-20 bucks played without giannis before you came.

Show me statistical proof that Celtics regressed more than any other team in history. Your talk is just an empty talk, nothing more.

you are the one arguing for a special curve not me, the burden of proof on you

Yeah and you didn't counter it by anything substantial.
wait, you're telling me that there were less 60 win teams in a smaller league than there were in a bigger one? Gee I wonder why.

Yeah, that's what I'm talking. So you argued against one notion and when I show you proof, then you say "gee I wonder why".
no ****, alas, this is meaningless for russell because russell did not have to worry about increasing thetotal number of 60 wins in the league, all he had to do was increase his own team's and you've presented like zero proof that was substantially harder in the 60's. Going by your own fancy list the number of 60 win teams in th 60's is actually perfectly on pace with what we wuld expect if induvdiual lift was easier/harder

You really don't understand statistics, do you?

Beyond, that....None of this should even matter. ERA REALITVITYdoes not give a **** about era-specifc difficulty.

Relative to the league, Russell's teams were more dominant than any dynasty. Among 7 60+wins teams from the 1960s, 5 of them were Russell's Celtics.
:/ what? Did regular season scheduling not happen or...

Wow, I forgot - you play total of what - 8 games? - from 82 against them. It doesn't deflate your record at all.

I understand stastics fine, you're just not applying our shared knowledge well. Outliers can help AND hurt your srs, all-time greatness.

I also seem to understand how to make logically consistent arguments better. You're a champion of era relaitviity, none of this should matter.

RS records are not relative values. Neither is SRS. What are you talking about?
Okay sure, they were a bit better than the magic. Mybe more like...checks notes...the 89 cavs. Incredible. And again, if ou're going to go re dhot from three, then that can very easily make up a +1 srs difference lmao. A variable that didn't exist in russell's time.

Sure, if you look at RS record then 1989 Cavs are on 1968 Sixers level. This is the type of "analysis" will lead you to such conclusions, but be aware how much context you miss...

You know, how well they did [b]REALTIVE TO ERA against their peers, that thing you keep purpotedly saying should be the way we measure players. I guess you could try to argue "playoff drop off" but...--looks at half of the celtics playoffs-- I wouldn't go that route if I were you.[/b]

1. Teams records and SRS are not relative numbers.
2. Show me statistical evidence of how Celtics weakness in playoffs.

no it most certainly does not have two teams as good as the team tha played 63 win basketball when healthy. You could bring up injuries but, --squints at the 68 and 69 finals Russell's that are absolutely pivotal to his case against russell--, nah I dont think you wanna go there.

Again, you're not doing it relative to era...

All of whom are much better than the -srs warriors, the -srs hawks(twice). And it speaks volumes you need to take lebron in 2018 and 2013 when trying to compare him to russell at his supposed best.

Sure, because in your imagination James wasn't close to his best in 2013. You base it not on his skillset, or ability to play basketball, but on raw results. James wasn't worse player in 2013 than in 2009.

Oh no, please dont tell me you're brining up when he went

8-5 against the

-> +1 SRS cincinatti Royals

->
+2 lakers[/i]
as an all time great season :(

Again, you're not doing it relative to era.

It also represents an underperformance that makes the 2011 heat losing to the 2011 mavs look like the 2016 cavs beating the 2016 warriors except as opposed to just 1/4 of the playoffs, it represents [b]the entirety of them? Could you imagine if thw 2011 heat's choke to the 2011 mavs x 2 for every single series of the playoffs? That's the supposedly ATG 63 Celtics.

First of all, clean up your English because I don't understand half of your sentences.
Secondly, tell me more how 1963 Celtics choked.

So no, listing all those seasons as ATG makes no sense. Much like trying to argue russell was ever comparably valuable to lebron at his apex is utterly baseless. Go dunk on everyone else's resume or ring count if u so please, but lets stop baselessly claiming russell was unprecedented in terms of relative to era lift.

I never said he was unprecedented, but he's certainly among the best ever in that. All you do is talk and you bring no quantible arguments. I'm done if you keep using the same tone and the same "arguments".

The funniest thing is that you used to be very pro-Russell but now you decided to throw any analysis away and focus on raw RS team results without trying to contextualize anything. You're free to do that, but don't expect that everyone will agree with you. Also, don't act like your opinions are more valuable than others because you use bunch of with/without stats and act like you're some kind of Hilbert or Gauss in terms of statistical analysis.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#68 » by MyUniBroDavis » Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:10 pm

70sFan wrote:
freethedevil wrote:Ah, fair enough I was looking at expected w-l on the assumption they adjusted for 82.

Very well, let me ammend my previous statement, russell was never able to lead a 65 win team in the regular season. Reminder, 3/4ths of title teams in the last 15 years played 65 win basketball.

And this is the regular seqason, not the postseason where the russell celtics have several seasons where they regressed by more than any other team in history by a **** landslide. You really need to be special to get taken to 7 by three -srs teams with a team that without played like the 19-20 bucks played without giannis before you came.

Show me statistical proof that Celtics regressed more than any other team in history. Your talk is just an empty talk, nothing more.

you are the one arguing for a special curve not me, the burden of proof on you

Yeah and you didn't counter it by anything substantial.
wait, you're telling me that there were less 60 win teams in a smaller league than there were in a bigger one? Gee I wonder why.

Yeah, that's what I'm talking. So you argued against one notion and when I show you proof, then you say "gee I wonder why".
no ****, alas, this is meaningless for russell because russell did not have to worry about increasing thetotal number of 60 wins in the league, all he had to do was increase his own team's and you've presented like zero proof that was substantially harder in the 60's. Going by your own fancy list the number of 60 win teams in th 60's is actually perfectly on pace with what we wuld expect if induvdiual lift was easier/harder

You really don't understand statistics, do you?

Beyond, that....None of this should even matter. ERA REALITVITYdoes not give a **** about era-specifc difficulty.

Relative to the league, Russell's teams were more dominant than any dynasty. Among 7 60+wins teams from the 1960s, 5 of them were Russell's Celtics.
:/ what? Did regular season scheduling not happen or...

Wow, I forgot - you play total of what - 8 games? - from 82 against them. It doesn't deflate your record at all.

I understand stastics fine, you're just not applying our shared knowledge well. Outliers can help AND hurt your srs, all-time greatness.

I also seem to understand how to make logically consistent arguments better. You're a champion of era relaitviity, none of this should matter.

RS records are not relative values. Neither is SRS. What are you talking about?
Okay sure, they were a bit better than the magic. Mybe more like...checks notes...the 89 cavs. Incredible. And again, if ou're going to go re dhot from three, then that can very easily make up a +1 srs difference lmao. A variable that didn't exist in russell's time.

Sure, if you look at RS record then 1989 Cavs are on 1968 Sixers level. This is the type of "analysis" will lead you to such conclusions, but be aware how much context you miss...

You know, how well they did [b]REALTIVE TO ERA against their peers, that thing you keep purpotedly saying should be the way we measure players. I guess you could try to argue "playoff drop off" but...--looks at half of the celtics playoffs-- I wouldn't go that route if I were you.[/b]

1. Teams records and SRS are not relative numbers.
2. Show me statistical evidence of how Celtics weakness in playoffs.

no it most certainly does not have two teams as good as the team tha played 63 win basketball when healthy. You could bring up injuries but, --squints at the 68 and 69 finals Russell's that are absolutely pivotal to his case against russell--, nah I dont think you wanna go there.

Again, you're not doing it relative to era...

All of whom are much better than the -srs warriors, the -srs hawks(twice). And it speaks volumes you need to take lebron in 2018 and 2013 when trying to compare him to russell at his supposed best.

Sure, because in your imagination James wasn't close to his best in 2013. You base it not on his skillset, or ability to play basketball, but on raw results. James wasn't worse player in 2013 than in 2009.

Oh no, please dont tell me you're brining up when he went

8-5 against the

-> +1 SRS cincinatti Royals

->
+2 lakers[/i]
as an all time great season :(

Again, you're not doing it relative to era.

It also represents an underperformance that makes the 2011 heat losing to the 2011 mavs look like the 2016 cavs beating the 2016 warriors except as opposed to just 1/4 of the playoffs, it represents [b]the entirety of them? Could you imagine if thw 2011 heat's choke to the 2011 mavs x 2 for every single series of the playoffs? That's the supposedly ATG 63 Celtics.

First of all, clean up your English because I don't understand half of your sentences.
Secondly, tell me more how 1963 Celtics choked.

So no, listing all those seasons as ATG makes no sense. Much like trying to argue russell was ever comparably valuable to lebron at his apex is utterly baseless. Go dunk on everyone else's resume or ring count if u so please, but lets stop baselessly claiming russell was unprecedented in terms of relative to era lift.

I never said he was unprecedented, but he's certainly among the best ever in that. All you do is talk and you bring no quantible arguments. I'm done if you keep using the same tone and the same "arguments".

The funniest thing is that you used to be very pro-Russell but now you decided to throw any analysis away and focus on raw RS team results without trying to contextualize anything. You're free to do that, but don't expect that everyone will agree with you. Also, don't act like your opinions are more valuable than others because you use bunch of with/without stats and act like you're some kind of Hilbert or Gauss in terms of statistical analysis.


Out of curiousity how much 60s footage do you have/is the way you get footage possible for like 2010-2020s footage too?
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#69 » by 70sFan » Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:18 pm

MyUniBroDavis wrote:Out of curiousity how much 60s footage do you have/is the way you get footage possible for like 2010-2020s footage too?


Here is the list of 1960s games I got so far:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zA2YgG7O6fkzD4qSXmnd4rmTHqabSiZSXZtmOSysLEw/edit#gid=0

As to 2010-20s games, again look at this site:

https://www.usasportsondvd.com/nba?rating=0|0&dtrange=range&issearch=1
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#70 » by LukaTheGOAT » Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:31 pm

Odinn21 wrote:And this 1st episode is full of exactly what I was talking about.

1962 Chamberlain; 50.4 ppg season, then he took the Celtics, the more complete and the better team on overall, to a game 7 with 33.6 ppg.
If Chamberlain was a player like he's claiming, how the hell on earth Chamberlain didn't went for his usual average and didn't lose the series in 5?
How on earth the team survived an elimination game in which Chamberlain scored 32 points on 33.4 tsa, Arizin scored 28 points on 29.1 tsa, Meschery scored 27 points on 23.3 tsa. What a black hole! He gives up on his usual points to win... Tsk tsk...

Chamberlain's tsa went from 47.0 in regular season to 34.5 in the playoffs, and 32.6 against the Celtics.

Also, his per possession numbers overlook the part a player being human. Chamberlain averaged 50.4 ppg in 1962 seasons and played in all minutes. Let's pick a player that averaged 28.7 per75 and drop him in 1961-62 regular season if he could play in all minutes like Chamberlain did and would get 50+ points per game. The usage rates are more balanced in higher paces. The extra possessions between paces are distributed. Fatigue is a real factor. Attempting 25 shots in a 80 possession game and 37 shots in a 120 possession game is different.
And it was not like Chamberlain lacked athleticism. To this day, he's still one of the most athletic basketball players ever if not the most.

He also overlooked the part there are scenarios scoring volume is necessary. Saying Wilt's team offense improved when he started to shot less is flat out disrespectful to Hal Greer, Jerry West and Gail Goodrich. That statement like the offensive quality of Chamberlain's teams stayed stable over time... Chamberlain started to shoot less because his team had the luxury to be less dependant on his scoring volume. The point is to score, not to get better ORtg. Rtg numbers are measurement of efficiency, not actual on-court production.
This also applies to his favoured per poss approach.

Yeah, we're off to a rocky start...

Edit;
I know that the video is an intro. I don't see a reason to present Chamberlain in a way inaccurate manner to show he doesn't care about raw box score values.


This still doesn't do Wilt his due merit probably, because as you said, Wilt played every minute of every game, which I am sure is tiring; but according to Ben's Inflation Adjusted Pts/75, Wilt goes from the typical 28.7pts/75 to 33.9 pts/75 in modern game's terms. He did this too on a relative TS% of 5.7.

Like I said, this number probably underrates him still, but I figured I would throw it out there.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#71 » by Owly » Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:48 pm

70sFan wrote:By the way, Ben admited in comments that he ranks peak Wilt higher than peak Russell. This makes the essence of this video even harder to understand :-?

There's stuff to pick at here (I already have ... other aspects might be ... not being sure about the "Russell reduced Wilt's scoring volume" angle if you don't think the scoring is that valuable, think he might be better scoring less, then also why you don't look at assists, don't look at team performance nor why you wouldn't look at what Wilt "did" to Russell's numbers [even if scoring isn't Russell's source of value] ... all a bit ad hoc, maybe just exemplifying aspects of thinking rather than explaining a full process...?)

But I don't think it's hard to get how one can be low on scoring Chamberlain but high on the modern consensus peak and prefer Russell overall (especially if it's hard to tell clearly if Russell had a dramatic peak). Whether or not one agrees that all seems able to fit together reasonably enough (and fitting Ben's MO, to my limited knowledge of that), to me anyway.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#72 » by LukaTheGOAT » Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:36 pm

I guess here is my first question regarding the series? Are we sure we are gauging Wilt's true value on RANDOM teams. Ben has always been an advocate of never judge a player by their best OR worst situation. I have no doubt that Bill Russell was the more impactful player to their respective teams through their careers. HOWEVER, how certain are we that if we put them on random teams at the time, that Wilt couldn't be better optimized.

My basis for thinking this is the fact that Wilt peaked in impact in 1967 at age 30. This is noteworthy because Ben believes this single year peak is better than the best of Bill Russell. Wilt then (according to Ben) went on to have the 2nd best season of his career in 1968 at age 31.

While I understand it is possible that Wilt just so happened to peak at a later age then some bigs, due to progression in mentality (maybe?), how are we certain that Wilt put in a similar situation at an earlier age couldn't have done things comparable to his elder counterparts. Once again, is it mentality? Because seemingly it was if Wilt always had the talent to pass/score he just perhaps didn't always balance the 2 optimally. Is it possible that earlier Wilt was just in a poor situation with poor coaching to optimize his impact? Even if Wilt perhaps was a bit less skilled (maybe?) in some assets, the freakish athleticism he had when he was younger, I feel like could've been helpful in some cases (even though he was very athletic when older).

It is also odd to look at his evaluations of Wilt. In 66, he has Wilt's defense at a +2.75 and then in 67 he jumps to +3.5. In 68 (his defensive peak along with 72), he is rated at +3.75. 67,68, and 72 are rated as his best defensive seasons too, according to Ben. Once again, it is possible Wilt peaked in his 30s (and that he peaked on defense at the age of 31 and 35), however, we often talk about players peaking OFFENSIVELY in their 30s and that is what helps them perhaps be at their peak. According to Ben, Wilt peaked offensively his 2nd, 3rd, and 5th years in the league (albeit they are rated a bit less portable then some of his older versions).

It's weird because Ben seems to think we got the best of Wilt offensively earlier in his career and got the best of him defensively later in his career (with his 2nd to last season being tied for his defensive peak). This is contrary to what you usually would think, as typically as players get older, they get smarter sure, but also they might lose a bit of stamina/motor as well as athleticism that typically dings their defense.

So I just wonder, are we sure that Wilt perhaps wasn't in a poor situation that didn't help him and his impact? Wilt's fluctuations in his offensive and defensive evaluations makes it seem as if Wilt was in an unstable environment, as if you look at the other evaluations Ben has done for players, few had such drastic shifts from year to year like Wilt.

Just take a lot at all the fluctuations in his career compared to someone like Bill.

Read on Twitter


Read on Twitter


Just take a lot at all the fluctuations in his career compared to someone like Bill.



I'm not an expert on Wilt so I cannot comment, so I am wondering for those who have a bit more expertise with regards to him have any ideas if this seems fair. Thanks.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#73 » by ZeppelinPage » Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:19 pm

Odinn21 wrote:And this 1st episode is full of exactly what I was talking about.

1962 Chamberlain; 50.4 ppg season, then he took the Celtics, the more complete and the better team on overall, to a game 7 with 33.6 ppg.
If Chamberlain was a player like he's claiming, how the hell on earth Chamberlain didn't went for his usual average and didn't lose the series in 5?
How on earth the team survived an elimination game in which Chamberlain scored 32 points on 33.4 tsa, Arizin scored 28 points on 29.1 tsa, Meschery scored 27 points on 23.3 tsa. What a black hole! He gives up on his usual points to win... Tsk tsk...

Chamberlain's tsa went from 47.0 in regular season to 34.5 in the playoffs, and 32.6 against the Celtics.

Also, his per possession numbers overlook the part a player being human. Chamberlain averaged 50.4 ppg in 1962 seasons and played in all minutes. Let's pick a player that averaged 28.7 per75 and drop him in 1961-62 regular season if he could play in all minutes like Chamberlain did and would get 50+ points per game. The usage rates are more balanced in higher paces. The extra possessions between paces are distributed. Fatigue is a real factor. Attempting 25 shots in a 80 possession game and 37 shots in a 120 possession game is different.
And it was not like Chamberlain lacked athleticism. To this day, he's still one of the most athletic basketball players ever if not the most.

He also overlooked the part there are scenarios scoring volume is necessary. Saying Wilt's team offense improved when he started to shot less is flat out disrespectful to Hal Greer, Jerry West and Gail Goodrich. That statement like the offensive quality of Chamberlain's teams stayed stable over time... Chamberlain started to shoot less because his team had the luxury to be less dependant on his scoring volume. The point is to score, not to get better ORtg. Rtg numbers are measurement of efficiency, not actual on-court production.
This also applies to his favoured per poss approach.

Yeah, we're off to a rocky start...

Edit;
I know that the video is an intro. I don't see a reason to present Chamberlain in a way inaccurate manner to show he doesn't care about raw box score values.


Also want to mention (as I have before) the '62 Warriors getting a full 3.3 points better in ORTG from '61 with nearly the entire team shooting worse. Doesn't seem like that is minor impact to me. Seems more like massive impact with an unfortunate offensive supporting cast that couldn't properly support a player like Wilt.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#74 » by Owly » Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:23 pm

LukaTheGOAT wrote:I guess here is my first question regarding the series? Are we sure we are gauging Wilt's true value on RANDOM teams. Ben has always been an advocate of never judge a player by their best OR worst situation. I have no doubt that Bill Russell was the more impactful player to their respective teams through their careers. HOWEVER, how certain are we that if we put them on random teams at the time, that Wilt couldn't be better optimized.

My basis for thinking this is the fact that Wilt peaked in impact in 1967 at age 30. This is noteworthy because Ben believes this single year peak is better than the best of Bill Russell. Wilt then (according to Ben) went on to have the 2nd best season of his career in 1968 at age 31.

While I understand it is possible that Wilt just so happened to peak at a later age then some bigs, due to progression in mentality (maybe?), how are we certain that Wilt put in a similar situation at an earlier age couldn't have done things comparable to his elder counterparts. Once again, is it mentality? Because seemingly it was if Wilt always had the talent to pass/score he just perhaps didn't always balance the 2 optimally. Is it possible that earlier Wilt was just in a poor situation with poor coaching to optimize his impact? Even if Wilt perhaps was a bit less skilled (maybe?) in some assets, the freakish athleticism he had when he was younger, I feel like could've been helpful in some cases (even though he was very athletic when older).

It is also odd to look at his evaluations of Wilt. In 66, he has Wilt's defense at a +2.75 and then in 67 he jumps to +3.5. In 68 (his defensive peak along with 72 age AGE 35), he is rated at +3.75. 67 and 68 are rated as his best defensive seasons too, according to Ben. Once again, it is possible Wilt peaked in his 30s, however, we often talk about players peaking OFFENSIVELY in their 30s and that is what helps them perhaps be at their peak. According to Ben, Wilt peaked offensively his 2nd, 3rd, and 5th years in the league (albeit they are rated a bit less portable then some of his older versions).

It's weird because Ben seems to think we got the best of Wilt offensively earlier in his career and got the best of him defensively later in his career (with his 2nd to last season being tied for his defensive peak). This is contrary to what you usually would think, as typically as players get older, they get smarter sure, but also they might lose a bit of stamina/motor as well as athleticism that typically dings their defense.

So I just wonder, are we sure that Wilt perhaps wasn't in a poor situation that didn't help him and his impact? Wilt's fluctuations in his offensive and defensive evaluations makes it seem as if Wilt was in an unstable environment, as if you look at the other evaluations Ben has done for players, few had such drastic shifts from year to year like Wilt.

I'm not an expert on Wilt so I cannot comment, so I am wondering for those who have a bit more expertise with regards to him have any ideas if this seems fair. Thanks.

Disclaimer: I used to be high on Wilt. Not so much now (some "numbers without impact" going on at times). I'm not right into the weeds of the Wilt-cynicism. I've read his 2 autbiogs and 1 ... I don't know what to call his last book (avoid it), Cherry and Libby's biogs, Taylor' Th Rivalry and other stuff more tangentialy about him or his teams, though not recently.


So yeah I think it is a mentality thing. He did play for some ... "he was a good player ... give him a try" coaches. And an early coach with some pedigree - McGuire - pushed the volume scorer angle. But then there's a lot that he says that makes it appear he liked being the focal point, the record setter, the center of attention. And maybe on some of those teams with bad shooters that was the best thing (in '63 you have to go to the 7th man in FGA [or minutes, same top 6] to get a shooter above 75, heck 73% from the line, '64 you have Hightower [2nd in fgas, 3rd in mins] then 3-9 in fgas all below 71%), or at least a reasonable thing. Still, there's a "I'll do what I'm asked ..." but also a "but I'm the greatest scorer in history and I'll be telling the press that" vibe. A sense that you need to coax him to buy in to what you're doing if it's not what he thinks he should be doing.

On the sympathetic view (i.e. "huge volume scoring not optimal but not his fault" angle) I believe it has been written that Philly encouraged volume scoring individuals, perhaps believing the leader scorer as star would help gates. Certainly Philly had a lot of volume scorers (Fulks, Arizin, Johnston, Wilt).

I think the main thing is you've just got to live with a fair amount of uncertainty on how good Wilt was (era and him being an extreme player).
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#75 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:31 pm

LukaTheGOAT wrote:
Read on Twitter


Read on Twitter


Just take a lot at all the fluctuations in his career compared to someone like Bill.



I'm not an expert on Wilt so I cannot comment, so I am wondering for those who have a bit more expertise with regards to him have any ideas if this seems fair. Thanks.


For me personally, I think the inconsistency from year to year with Wilt is THE thing to understand about more than anything other than the realization he was more effective when he scored less.

I think perhaps the most telling year is '64-65 when:

1. Wilt was severely hurt by injury.
2. Yet still put up box score number pretty close to normal.
3. But his impact basically fell part.

To me that's telling you that you really can't gauge Wilt's impact from any straight forward reading of the box score.

I think that when Wilt was locked in on defense, he was the 2nd most impactful defender in the world at the time, but he wasn't always locked in, and that's the biggest aspect of why his impact is yo-yoing.

I think Wilt's biggest impact on offense came when he was highly engaged playing a role that brought out the best of his teammates. He did that first for the 76ers in '66-67 as something of a point center and later for the Lakers in '71-72 as a garbage man.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#76 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:35 pm

ZeppelinPage wrote:Also want to mention (as I have before) the '62 Warriors getting a full 3.3 points better in ORTG from '61 with nearly the entire team shooting worse. Doesn't seem like that is minor impact to me. Seems more like massive impact with an unfortunate offensive supporting cast that couldn't properly support a player like Wilt.


I would disagree with that assessment given what we know about Wilt later in his career.

There's a clear correlation where Wilt's teammates tended to get diminished when the offense just became about getting the ball to Wilt and letting him try to score, and a clear correlation of teammates looking amazingly better when Wilt becomes more team-focused.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#77 » by LukaTheGOAT » Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:00 pm

Owly wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:I guess here is my first question regarding the series? Are we sure we are gauging Wilt's true value on RANDOM teams. Ben has always been an advocate of never judge a player by their best OR worst situation. I have no doubt that Bill Russell was the more impactful player to their respective teams through their careers. HOWEVER, how certain are we that if we put them on random teams at the time, that Wilt couldn't be better optimized.

My basis for thinking this is the fact that Wilt peaked in impact in 1967 at age 30. This is noteworthy because Ben believes this single year peak is better than the best of Bill Russell. Wilt then (according to Ben) went on to have the 2nd best season of his career in 1968 at age 31.

While I understand it is possible that Wilt just so happened to peak at a later age then some bigs, due to progression in mentality (maybe?), how are we certain that Wilt put in a similar situation at an earlier age couldn't have done things comparable to his elder counterparts. Once again, is it mentality? Because seemingly it was if Wilt always had the talent to pass/score he just perhaps didn't always balance the 2 optimally. Is it possible that earlier Wilt was just in a poor situation with poor coaching to optimize his impact? Even if Wilt perhaps was a bit less skilled (maybe?) in some assets, the freakish athleticism he had when he was younger, I feel like could've been helpful in some cases (even though he was very athletic when older).

It is also odd to look at his evaluations of Wilt. In 66, he has Wilt's defense at a +2.75 and then in 67 he jumps to +3.5. In 68 (his defensive peak along with 72 age AGE 35), he is rated at +3.75. 67 and 68 are rated as his best defensive seasons too, according to Ben. Once again, it is possible Wilt peaked in his 30s, however, we often talk about players peaking OFFENSIVELY in their 30s and that is what helps them perhaps be at their peak. According to Ben, Wilt peaked offensively his 2nd, 3rd, and 5th years in the league (albeit they are rated a bit less portable then some of his older versions).

It's weird because Ben seems to think we got the best of Wilt offensively earlier in his career and got the best of him defensively later in his career (with his 2nd to last season being tied for his defensive peak). This is contrary to what you usually would think, as typically as players get older, they get smarter sure, but also they might lose a bit of stamina/motor as well as athleticism that typically dings their defense.

So I just wonder, are we sure that Wilt perhaps wasn't in a poor situation that didn't help him and his impact? Wilt's fluctuations in his offensive and defensive evaluations makes it seem as if Wilt was in an unstable environment, as if you look at the other evaluations Ben has done for players, few had such drastic shifts from year to year like Wilt.

I'm not an expert on Wilt so I cannot comment, so I am wondering for those who have a bit more expertise with regards to him have any ideas if this seems fair. Thanks.

Disclaimer: I used to be high on Wilt. Not so much now (some "numbers without impact" going on at times). I'm not right into the weeds of the Wilt-cynicism. I've read his 2 autbiogs and 1 ... I don't know what to call his last book (avoid it), Cherry and Libby's biogs, Taylor' Th Rivalry and other stuff more tangentialy about him or his teams, though not recently.


So yeah I think it is a mentality thing. He did play for some ... "he was a good player ... give him a try" coaches. And an early coach with some pedigree - McGuire - pushed the volume scorer angle. But then there's a lot that he says that makes it appear he liked being the focal point, the record setter, the center of attention. And maybe on some of those teams with bad shooters that was the best thing (in '63 you have to go to the 7th man in FGA [or minutes, same top 6] to get a shooter above 75, heck 73% from the line, '64 you have Hightower [2nd in fgas, 3rd in mins] then 3-9 in fgas all below 71%), or at least a reasonable thing. Still, there's a "I'll do what I'm asked ..." but also a "but I'm the greatest scorer in history and I'll be telling the press that" vibe. A sense that you need to coax him to buy in to what you're doing if it's not what he thinks he should be doing.

On the sympathetic view (i.e. "huge volume scoring not optimal but not his fault" angle) I believe it has been written that Philly encouraged volume scoring individuals, perhaps believing the leader scorer as star would help gates. Certainly Philly had a lot of volume scorers (Fulks, Arizin, Johnston, Wilt).

I think the main thing is you've just got to live with a fair amount of uncertainty on how good Wilt was (era and him being an extreme player).


Thank you for this insight!
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#78 » by LukaTheGOAT » Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:01 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:
Read on Twitter


Read on Twitter


Just take a lot at all the fluctuations in his career compared to someone like Bill.



I'm not an expert on Wilt so I cannot comment, so I am wondering for those who have a bit more expertise with regards to him have any ideas if this seems fair. Thanks.


For me personally, I think the inconsistency from year to year with Wilt is THE thing to understand about more than anything other than the realization he was more effective when he scored less.

I think perhaps the most telling year is '64-65 when:

1. Wilt was severely hurt by injury.
2. Yet still put up box score number pretty close to normal.
3. But his impact basically fell part.

To me that's telling you that you really can't gauge Wilt's impact from any straight forward reading of the box score.

I think that when Wilt was locked in on defense, he was the 2nd most impactful defender in the world at the time, but he wasn't always locked in, and that's the biggest aspect of why his impact is yo-yoing.

I think Wilt's biggest impact on offense came when he was highly engaged playing a role that brought out the best of his teammates. He did that first for the 76ers in '66-67 as something of a point center and later for the Lakers in '71-72 as a garbage man.


Thank you for this insight!
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#79 » by freethedevil » Wed Nov 25, 2020 8:15 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:
Read on Twitter


Read on Twitter


Just take a lot at all the fluctuations in his career compared to someone like Bill.



I'm not an expert on Wilt so I cannot comment, so I am wondering for those who have a bit more expertise with regards to him have any ideas if this seems fair. Thanks.


For me personally, I think the inconsistency from year to year with Wilt is THE thing to understand about more than anything other than the realization he was more effective when he scored less.

I think perhaps the most telling year is '64-65 when:

1. Wilt was severely hurt by injury.
2. Yet still put up box score number pretty close to normal.
3. But his impact basically fell part.

To me that's telling you that you really can't gauge Wilt's impact from any straight forward reading of the box score.

I think that when Wilt was locked in on defense, he was the 2nd most impactful defender in the world at the time, but he wasn't always locked in, and that's the biggest aspect of why his impact is yo-yoing.

I think Wilt's biggest impact on offense came when he was highly engaged playing a role that brought out the best of his teammates. He did that first for the 76ers in '66-67 as something of a point center and later for the Lakers in '71-72 as a garbage man.

Yeah, not sure how to square this potrayal with russell with him spending half his postseasons getting taken to 7 or 6 by -srs to +2 srs teams half the time. Unless you think the russell celtics were the kg timberwolves(which most certaonyl doesn't track with how they played without russell, how they palye dbefore russell, or how they played after russell), we can throw out half of these "strong mvp" seasons.

Dont know how much you've been following this thread, but my opinoin of russell has plummeted over these last 2 weeks.

He has a couple seasins where him being worth all-time lift passes the sniff test, but noen of those seasons have really anything going for it to suggest they rival the best of the best, and all these prime reasons i've blindly accepted as equally good or better really require complete dismissal of holistics to defend.


Interestingly enough I'm semi-reversed on wilt, tho I'm not going to go all the way because russell's celtics collpasing in the playoffs wasn't close to exclusive to wilt.

the real winner of all this for me? Duncan. Wouldn't have really thought of having him top 5 two months ago, Now with jordan and Russell's playoff woes coming into light, even the assumption that all of duncan's apparent playoff elevation is noise would still keep duncan in the running for top 3. given that I dont see much of a case to be made duncan was well off in 03 or 02 based of imapct or granulars twhat is now, behind several lebron playoffs for me, in 89 and 90 MJ, Duncan has skyrocketed from like 7th to a clear cut third place in my rankings.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#80 » by freethedevil » Wed Nov 25, 2020 9:06 am

70sFan wrote:
freethedevil wrote:Ah, fair enough I was looking at expected w-l on the assumption they adjusted for 82.

Very well, let me ammend my previous statement, russell was never able to lead a 65 win team in the regular season. Reminder, 3/4ths of title teams in the last 15 years played 65 win basketball.

And this is the regular seqason, not the postseason where the russell celtics have several seasons where they regressed by more than any other team in history by a **** landslide. You really need to be special to get taken to 7 by three -srs teams with a team that without played like the 19-20 bucks played without giannis before you came.

Show me statistical proof that Celtics regressed more than any other team in history. Your talk is just an empty talk, nothing more.
1965, +7 srs, taken to 7 y the, -.25 srs, hawks.

If you want, you can go on basketball reference and look up the rest.

you are the one arguing for a special curve not me, the burden of proof on you

Yeah and you didn't counter it by anything substantial. If one must characterize the other's argument as opposed to addressing it, chances are they don't have a competent rebuttal for whats being addressed, as we shall soon see, this is also true with you.
wait, you're telling me that there were less 60 win teams in a smaller league than there were in a bigger one? Gee I wonder why.

Yeah, that's what I'm talking. So you argued against one notion and when I show you proof, then you say "gee I wonder why". No, lets recap, I said "it was not harder for russell induvdiaully to lift his team" then it would be for an average 90's superstar. That the --Volume-- of 60 win teams increased proportionally to the # of teams in the league supports my claim, not yours.
no ****, alas, this is meaningless for russell because russell did not have to worry about increasing thetotal number of 60 wins in the league, all he had to do was increase his own team's and you've presented like zero proof that was substantially harder in the 60's. Going by your own fancy list the number of 60 win teams in th 60's is actually perfectly on pace with what we wuld expect if induvdiual lift was easier/harder

You really don't understand statistics, do you?
Cleary better than you apparently.
Beyond, that....None of this should even matter. ERA REALITVITYdoes not give a **** about era-specifc difficulty.

Relative to the league, Russell's teams were more dominant than any dynasty. Among 7 60+wins teams from the 1960s, 5 of them were Russell's Celtics. That's longetvity, not relative dominance. The bulls were relative yto era dominant, the celtics were a yram that alternated between the 13 heat and the 18 cavs who won 11 titles because it turns out when most of your opponets are, realtive to the era, not even +4, you dont need very much to elevate a team who, without their best player, is already .500 past them.
:/ what? Did regular season scheduling not happen or...

Wow, I forgot - you play total of what - 8 games? - from 82 against them. It doesn't deflate your record at all.
it defaltes your record just as much as beating up on bad outliers would, therefore nuking your claim that srs was "easier" to rack up in later eras for inudviudal teams.
I understand stastics fine, you're just not applying our shared knowledge well. Outliers can help AND hurt your srs, all-time greatness.

I also seem to understand how to make logically consistent arguments better. You're a champion of era relaitviity, none of this should matter.

RS records are not relative values.


Neither is SRS. What are you talking about?
Okay sure, they were a bit better than the magic. Mybe more like...checks notes...the 89 cavs. Incredible. And again, if ou're going to go re dhot from three, then that can very easily make up a +1 srs difference lmao. A variable that didn't exist in russell's time.

Sure, if you look at RS record then 1989 Cavs are on 1968 Sixers level. This is the type of "analysis" will lead you to such conclusions, but be aware how much context you miss...

You know, how well they did [b]REALTIVE TO ERA against their peers, that thing you keep purpotedly saying should be the way we measure players. I guess you could try to argue "playoff drop off" but...--looks at half of the celtics playoffs-- I wouldn't go that route if I were you.[/b]

1. Teams records and SRS are not relative numbers. They come directly from playoing the competition of your era, so yes actually, they are, by definition, relative to era numbers. It would seem my understanding of stastistics surpasses your understandning of the word ---relative---. "There weren't as many 60 win teams" is specfically comparing eras and is hence not era-relative.

See how this works?




All of whom are much better than the -srs warriors, the -srs hawks(twice). And it speaks volumes you need to take lebron in 2018 and 2013 when trying to compare him to russell at his supposed best.

Sure, because in your imagination James wasn't close to his best in 2013, Aka, My opinion on Lebron is defnesible by results and yours is not, so I have zero reason to consider your silly "lets curve down the season i have no argument against" so i can use a "season i have a better argument." If you think russell's playoff lift is remotely comparable to lebron in 09, then make the case against lebron in 09. if you think its comparable to lebron in 15, 17, 20, 16, then make the case.

Hell you're wlecome to make the case for 2018 where not only was lebron clearly providing more lift, he also did it on a team more impressive than two of your supposed atg russell seasons.

Failure to do so serves as an implicit concession of what's obvious beyond your baseless weighting of versatily vs dominance:

Lebron was clearly the more valuable\ player, realtive to era.


Again, this isn't very difficult

Oh no, please dont tell me you're brining up when he went

8-5 against the

-> +1 SRS cincinatti Royals

->
+2 lakers[/i]
as an all time great season :(

Again, you're not doing it relative to era.

It also represents an underperformance that makes the 2011 heat losing to the 2011 mavs look like the 2016 cavs beating the 2016 warriors except as opposed to just 1/4 of the playoffs, it represents [b]the entirety of them? Could you imagine if thw 2011 heat's choke to the 2011 mavs x 2 for every single series of the playoffs? That's the supposedly ATG 63 Celtics.

First of all, clean up your English because I don't understand half of your sentences. :/ My grammar is just fine compared to yours.
Secondly, tell me more how 1963 Celtics choked.
Did you not see what you just did,
So no, listing all those seasons as ATG makes no sense. Much like trying to argue russell was ever comparably valuable to lebron at his apex is utterly baseless. Go dunk on everyone else's resume or ring count if u so please, but lets stop baselessly claiming russell was unprecedented in terms of relative to era lift.

I never said he was unprecedented, but he's certainly among the best ever in that. All you do is talk and you bring no quantible arguments. I'm done if you keep using the same tone and the same "arguments".
Huh?

Quantible arguments:
-> the celtics were .500 before russell and were legitmately challenged by .500 or slightly above .500 teams for half their titles, including titles under what you're saying is their supposed peak
-> The amount of 60 wins team in the league has increased proportionally to the amount of teams therefore indiciating it has not been harder for an inudvidual team to reach new heights
-> The celtics srs dropped by 4-6 points for half of their postseasons which absoltely blows out the drop offs of say, the robinson spurs.
-> Lebron's cavs played 18 with basketball without him from 08-10 and 18 win basketball before blowing things up when he left
-> Multiple of the lebron teams we consider "not real contenders' were better than celtics title teams based on their mov against the compeititon of the era in the playoffs
-> Russell's teams never even came close to the heights of teams like the 91 bulls,yhr 71 bucks or the 17 warriors in the rs or the playoffs, and its rather difficult to justidy that with supporitng cast when the supporitng cast - russell played close to most of the teams russell had to beat for the title.

You not addressing what i say doe snot change I have come at this from a variety of angles. Your only counter here apparently is by ignoring what the word relative means, or dimissing me because my holistic evidence disagrees with your eyetest, tho oddly enough you've never actually gone as in depth with your "eyetest" as I have or pointed it to a conclusion centered around winning like say, a player elevating everything they were doing from a 40 win regular season.


The funniest thing is that you used to be very pro-Russell here
Yes quite like I used to be pro 18 lebron, and pro allen iverson See, I believe in changing my opinions when new evidence arises, be it granular(my lowering of jordan in 91) or holistic(all these opinions which you're disagreeing with now), but you seemingly dont. It doesn't matter what is shown, how much someone brings to the table, it would seem, that as long as their is the smallest sliver of possibility that your originial take was accurate, you'll defend it to the grave.

I consider my stances shifting quickly to fit new evidence a very good thing, you seem to think its bad to change your stances. That's not a gap we're going to be able to bridge, I'm afraid.

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