The Lebron Thread | 2021 & Offseason

[Heej]

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Bron and AD are gonna love cutting off this dude and doing split actions I feel

[homecourtloss]

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Bron and AD are gonna love cutting off this dude and doing split actions I feel

Even though the Lakers did well with McGee in these first quarters, I feel Gasol will help an already strong 1st quarter team become that much stronger. Before the bubble, the Lakers were +9.7 NET Rtg in 1st quarters. Dominant teams usually have dominant 1st quarters in general.

1st quarter NET Rtgs

2016 Warriors, +19.8 [+22.0 at home]
2009 Cavs, +18.3 [+25.5 at home, just ridiculous how they blew out teams in the 1st quarter]
2018 Rockets, +18.0
2013 Thunder, +14.5
2017 Warriors, +14.4 [+21.5 at home]
2008 Celtics, +12.8 [+21.5 at home]
2015 Clippers, +12.6
2010 Cavs, +11.8
2020 Bucks, +11.7
2016 Thunder, +11.7
2014 Spurs, +11.4
2016 Spurs, +11.1
2015 Cavs, +11.1
2010 Lakers, +11.0
2020 Lakers, +9.7
2015 Warriors, +9.3
2011 Heat, +9.2

[MyUniBroDavis]

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Bron and AD are gonna love cutting off this dude and doing split actions I feel

Even though the Lakers did well with McGee in these first quarters, I feel Gasol will help an already strong 1st quarter team become that much stronger. Before the bubble, the Lakers were +9.7 NET Rtg in 1st quarters. Dominant teams usually have dominant 1st quarters in general.

1st quarter NET Rtgs

2016 Warriors, +19.8 [+22.0 at home]
2009 Cavs, +18.3 [+25.5 at home, just ridiculous how they blew out teams in the 1st quarter]
2018 Rockets, +18.0
2013 Thunder, +14.5
2017 Warriors, +14.4 [+21.5 at home]
2008 Celtics, +12.8 [+21.5 at home]
2015 Clippers, +12.6
2010 Cavs, +11.8
2020 Bucks, +11.7
2016 Thunder, +11.7
2014 Spurs, +11.4
2016 Spurs, +11.1
2015 Cavs, +11.1
2010 Lakers, +11.0
2020 Lakers, +9.7
2015 Warriors, +9.3
2011 Heat, +9.2

We also legitimately have solid bench lineups without lebron or AD, i mean we have 2 6MOTY level guys now lol

I mean when you look at the guys who surround lebron and AD, your expecting at best one dimensional mid quality 3 and D guys

We got

6MOTY runner up schroder, who averaged 19-4-4 on good D and effeciency

6MOTY Harrell, who might be limited defensively (although i think he'll show out on that end) and be unable to shoot, but is legitimately a top 5 roll man in the nba and is legitimately a guy who can go for 20-10 on good effeciency any night

Marc Gasol, who was a key starter for a chmpaionship team two years ago, key to stopping giannis with his positioning, and one of the best low post defenders in the nba dwarfing even gobert in effeciency at defending the post. Can shoot and is a good passer

Wesley matthews, solid 3 and D guy, coming off a season as one of the better defenders on an ATG defensive team and a wing stopper

Caruso, one of the top defensive guards in the nba and a strong cutter and great guard screen setter

Markieff, versatile defender that can stretch the floor

Kcp, strong 3 and D guy coming off a career best year

Kuz, the guy with potential, in a new role he struggled but talent wise you know he has "it"

Like literally from 1 through 9 our roster is incredibly deep and everyone has a key role they can contribute to. Not only that but in terms of upside harrell and kuz both could have breakout years impact wise (more likely harrell).

Vogel is an amazing coach that can put it all together too

[andyhop]

Idk how much I really believe the whole “joint bank account” thing, but before this latest contract Markieff had actually made a couple more million in his career than Marcus. It’s hilarious that the Clippers are paying so much more for Marcus though when he arguably isn’t much better. Markieff can probably give ~90% of what his brother gives while being way cheaper and less of a loose cannon.

They told the Suns a number they wanted for the pair of them back in the day and said they didn't care how the Suns accounted for it so the joint account sounds entirely likely to me.

[Mos_Heat]

Lakers market and financial advantage is insane. At no point this offseason has the luxury tax been a discussion.

They can't be more than 6m in tax, so it's kinda pointless to talk about it

[trickshot]

Lakers market and financial advantage is insane. At no point this offseason has the luxury tax been a discussion.

They can't be more than 6m in tax, so it's kinda pointless to talk about it

The Rockets basically got dismantled over Tilman's unwillingness to pay the slightest tax. OKC, Suns and so many past contenders had their windows closed because of it. Was one positive Dan Gilbert at least had going for him. Was also more referring to how easy they can go after Giannis

[MyUniBroDavis]

Playoff rondo was great, but RS rondo wasnt

We were a +9.5 team with rondo off the court, it was bad enough that it dragged ADs net rtg to be a slight negative actually

With the caveat that im not counting markieff because of how little rs time he had pre bubble, our 3 large net negative guys were dudley/rondo/daniels, although some of that is garbage time stuff for dudley and daniels obviously.

Schroder was a +8.1 on okc, second on their team in net rtg. Best on their team in defense net for significant minutes, slight negative offensively although it makes sense since hes gonna be going in for paul alot

Because of how much kawhi and george missed games harrells net rtg is wonky, although it was positive at 0.3 (lous was -2.6 and theyre obv a big duo) Which is a good sign

Matthews was a +5.7 was the third best defensive net rtg in the bucks, and offensively we know he does his role well enough (was -0.1 for them)

Finally, marc's was +6.4, sexond on the raptors for significant minutes, barely below siakam

Theres obv WAYYY more to it than that, but a quick way to look at it is

We lost 3 guys with the lowest net rtg for our team that llayed significant minutes. We got 3 guys who were top 5 in net rtg (hartell 6th) from 3 of the best RS teams in the league and 1 solid western conference playoff team

Granted we lost green and we lost howard too but still, its an interesting way to look at it. There are caveats obviously like matthews was great on D but mostly played in super good defensive lineups, but its notable

Another way to look at it

Schroder/caruso
Kcp/matthews
Kuzma/(rotation level wing)
Harrell/Markieff
Marc/(rotation level center)

Beverly/Lou
Shamet/temple
Shai/Green
Gallinari
Zubac/Harrell

Is arguably better than that post trade clippers roster from a year ago, all things considered. (Before you call me crazy remmeber kuz here would be more 2019 or rookie kuz offensively)

While that might sound insane, we have the advantage at SG position,m, a superior center, and honestly id take caruso and schroder over beverly and lou, and 2019 kuz with 2020 kuz defense is definately better than rookie shai. Also, vogel is a top 5 coach in the league. Rivers isnt a coach in the league (although tbf its more cuz he makes some dumb playoff decisions)

That clippers team after trades went 19-7 to close out the season, and then pished the warriors to 6 (although tbf they werent trying thaaaat hard lmao)

Now replace rotation wing and rotation wing and rotation center with #1 and #2 in the nba.

Like i genuinly think this team could genuinly be a low 40 win team in the nba replacing AD and bron with replacement level players. I think they were better than a team that was a high 40 win team that played at a 60 win pace against if i reall a difficult post all star break schedule(obv they werent a 60 win team lol but still). We have arguably the best player on that team even, whose going to be more motivated than ever

Youre adding the 2 best players in the nba to that, and even if its not neccessarily that simple, you an argue that lebron and AD are good fits with the team.

AD gives harrell spacing (although i dont like the idea of ad giving someone else thats not bron spacing vs the other way around) and covers for some of his weaknesses defensively. Marc, kcp, markieff, schroder, and matthews are gonna get open looks from three galore. Caruso can play his guard screening game more. Schroder gets the BEST pick and roll partner in the game. Marc gets two incredible targets for his playmaking. Harrell gets more points as a dump off finisher with the pressure ad and lebron put at the rim. The only guy who gets worse from fit is kuz

This lineup could work so seamlessly, with raw talent on the level of the deepest teams ever. Not to mention harrells an x factor, playing with more of a chip in his shoulder than ever

Now if kuzma breaks out, and keep in mind that as bad as hes been at times normal guys dont show flashes by dropping a random effecient 35-40 points here and there, and harrell suddenly becomes a switchy defender that theres at least some evidence of hkm possibly being (espnunder vogel, since doc wasnt s good defensive coach and the lakers are GOATED in defensive culture atm) then we get to a point where not only do we have the most versatile lineup in the nba, with how our bigs can adapt to any situation along with the most versatile defender in the nba, but wed have 3 6MOTY level guys, 2 strong 3 and D players, a key above average starting center for a typical non top heavy contender, and alex the god caruso, surrounding a duo thats probably one of the top 5 duos in nba history, and were the best 2 players in the nba the past year (with a larger gap between 2nd and 3rd than 1st and 2nd in the playoffs)

[KTM_2813]

One thing worth mentioning is that Vogel displayed a certain ruthlessness in the playoffs when it came to the team's rotations. When necessary, he played the best lineups, even if it meant eliminating a role player who was previously utilized (i.e. McGee, Howard). This is part of the reason that I'm alright with all of these moves. I've heard a lot of analysts say that Harrell will mess up the Lakers' closing lineup, but I don't see Vogel actually including Harrell in that lineup when the going gets tough. Vogel deserves our faith that he will find the right combinations come playoff time. I fully expect him to play some weird lineups during the regular season that have us scratching our heads, but he'll eventually figure it out.

[MisterHibachi]

West is pretty stacked this year.

Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, Mavs, Blazers, Warriors, Rockets, Suns, Jazz, even Pelicans are all trying to get into the playoffs. That's 9-10 teams, depending on how you see the Pelicans. Which of them miss the playoffs?

[Joey Wheeler]

West is pretty stacked this year.

Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, Mavs, Blazers, Warriors, Rockets, Suns, Jazz, even Pelicans are all trying to get into the playoffs. That's 9-10 teams, depending on how you see the Pelicans. Which of them miss the playoffs?

Warriors and Pelicans clearly stick out there as team which won't make it...

The Rockets will make it if they don't trade Harden, who by himself is ~50 wins in the RS. Pelicans and Warriors stick out as the worst teams of that bunch.

[MyUniBroDavis]

West is pretty stacked this year.

Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, Mavs, Blazers, Warriors, Rockets, Suns, Jazz, even Pelicans are all trying to get into the playoffs. That's 9-10 teams, depending on how you see the Pelicans. Which of them miss the playoffs?

Warriors and Pelicans clearly stick out there as team which won't make it...

The Rockets will make it if they don't trade Harden, who by himself is ~50 wins in the RS. Pelicans and Warriors stick out as the worst teams of that bunch.

I mean steph curry bro

Also zion about to go off

[Joey Wheeler]

West is pretty stacked this year.

Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, Mavs, Blazers, Warriors, Rockets, Suns, Jazz, even Pelicans are all trying to get into the playoffs. That's 9-10 teams, depending on how you see the Pelicans. Which of them miss the playoffs?

Warriors and Pelicans clearly stick out there as team which won't make it...

The Rockets will make it if they don't trade Harden, who by himself is ~50 wins in the RS. Pelicans and Warriors stick out as the worst teams of that bunch.

I mean steph curry bro

Also zion about to go off

Curry isn't the kind of guy who can singlehandedly carry a team to the playoffs, he's not James Harden. That Warriors team seriously lacks firepower, I don't see them making the playoffs.

[Jordan Syndrome]

West is pretty stacked this year.

Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, Mavs, Blazers, Warriors, Rockets, Suns, Jazz, even Pelicans are all trying to get into the playoffs. That's 9-10 teams, depending on how you see the Pelicans. Which of them miss the playoffs?

Warriors and Pelicans clearly stick out there as team which won't make it...

The Rockets will make it if they don't trade Harden, who by himself is ~50 wins in the RS. Pelicans and Warriors stick out as the worst teams of that bunch.

I have the Timberwolves and Grizzles ahead of the Pelicans and right next to the Warriors.

People forget just how deep those Warriors team were--key bench guys giving the team big impact minutes like Iguodala, Livingston, West and Cook--not to mention how much Klay will be missed.

[Joey Wheeler]

West is pretty stacked this year.

Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, Mavs, Blazers, Warriors, Rockets, Suns, Jazz, even Pelicans are all trying to get into the playoffs. That's 9-10 teams, depending on how you see the Pelicans. Which of them miss the playoffs?

Warriors and Pelicans clearly stick out there as team which won't make it...

The Rockets will make it if they don't trade Harden, who by himself is ~50 wins in the RS. Pelicans and Warriors stick out as the worst teams of that bunch.

I have the Timberwolves and Grizzles ahead of the Pelicans and right next to the Warriors.

People forget just how deep those Warriors team were--key bench guys giving the team big impact minutes like Iguodala, Livingston, West and Cook--not to mention how much Klay will be missed.

I agree with this. Looking at the Warriors roster, I don't see how they make the playoffs, it'd require Curry successfully shouldering a kind of load over the season he's never shown to be capable of. They seriously lack offensive talent.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Warriors and Pelicans clearly stick out there as team which won't make it...

The Rockets will make it if they don't trade Harden, who by himself is ~50 wins in the RS. Pelicans and Warriors stick out as the worst teams of that bunch.

I have the Timberwolves and Grizzles ahead of the Pelicans and right next to the Warriors.

People forget just how deep those Warriors team were--key bench guys giving the team big impact minutes like Iguodala, Livingston, West and Cook--not to mention how much Klay will be missed.

I agree with this. Looking at the Warriors roster, I don't see how they make the playoffs, it'd require Curry successfully shouldering a kind of load over the season he's never shown to be capable of. They seriously lack offensive talent.

So the thing about the warriors is its built off of the curry and dray pick and roll, and since you Almost always gave to hard blitz curry it always creates short roll oppertunities for draymond to playmake

But if they dint have threats there idk if thatll work, esp since kerr falls in love with curry off ball too much at times

Otoh i do think curry has it in him, like currys essentially the apex of what a non athletic or physically dominant player can be in terms of offensive skill so i think he'll be fine. Im curious how the curry and dray pick and roll will
Work out though, because alot of it is broken down if you have skmone you dont have tu guard because of draymond being one of the worst finishers in the nba even during 2016

[Lakers LeBron]

For me with Curry it's more of a question if his body can hold up carrying the load he'll need to for the Warriros to be a playoff team in the west. He's a small guard, he has an injury history, and he's turning 33 in March. Historically that's not a great combination and Curry has almost certainly already played the best basketball of his career.

But you look at what Dame for example did with Portland last season and Curry definitely has the skillset to replicate that.

[MyUniBroDavis]

For me with Curry it's more of a question if his body can hold up carrying the load he'll need to for the Warriros to be a playoff team in the west. He's a small guard, he has an injury history, and he's turning 33 in March. Historically that's not a great combination and Curry has almost certainly already played the best basketball of his career.

But you look at what Dame for example did with Portland last season and Curry definitely has the skillset to replicate that.

Tbf currys style of play avoids contact like that and relies less on athleticism even compared tommost athletic guards

I mean the man is literally not explosive at all lol, but i think he'll do a good deal better than what lillard was doing which is insane considering how good lillard was

[thebigbird]

West is pretty stacked this year.

Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, Mavs, Blazers, Warriors, Rockets, Suns, Jazz, even Pelicans are all trying to get into the playoffs. That's 9-10 teams, depending on how you see the Pelicans. Which of them miss the playoffs?

I could just be overconfident, but honestly the West doesn’t really scare me that much. I’d be more worried if the Lakers were in the East. The Clippers are the only team in the West that scares me. We handled Denver, Houston, and Portland pretty easily and then we made such big improvements during the off-season. I think the gap between the Lakers and the rest of the West (with the possible exception of the Clippers) is even bigger than it was last year. The only thing that changes this is a sizable regression from Bron.

[nzahir]

West is pretty stacked this year.

Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, Mavs, Blazers, Warriors, Rockets, Suns, Jazz, even Pelicans are all trying to get into the playoffs. That's 9-10 teams, depending on how you see the Pelicans. Which of them miss the playoffs?

I could just be overconfident, but honestly the West doesn’t really scare me that much. I’d be more worried if the Lakers were in the East. The Clippers are the only team in the West that scares me. We handled Denver, Houston, and Portland pretty easily and then we made such big improvements during the off-season. I think the gap between the Lakers and the rest of the West (with the possible exception of the Clippers) is even bigger than it was last year. The only thing that changes this is a sizable regression from Bron.

I think the west is now less top heavy, but GS will be somewhat back, Minny should be better, Phoenix should be a playoff team, NO should be better overall if Zion is healthy. Mavs should also be better if healthy

But Hou may collapse completely if they move Harden (not sure if they do tbh).
OKC will be the worst team or at least should be

But not many free wins in the bottom of the west

Denver got a bit worse but maybe MPJ takes a big step?

Portland got better.

Clippers are a bit better or about the same on paper. I like Ibaka over Trez I believe in the playoffs, but they lost Green. Kennard>Shamet, but can he stay healthy?

Their big move is firing Doc and hoping to improve chemistry

[RCM88x]

Curious to see who the Lakers get with their remaining roster spots.

Would like to see them pickup another true C and a PG.