Deni Avdija

[doclinkin]

Deni is a better athlete than Gallo (by a fair margin at this point, but Gallo has also dealt with a lot of injuries, the difference wouldn't be quite as stark were we to compare them at the same ages).

Well yeah, I meant coming into the league. When he was drafted by the Knicks, as a recovering Knicks fan with friends who are still diehards, I watched a few recorded Milano games (Armani Jeans Milano, how stylish) and thought, well yeah this kid has some NBA level athleticism. He had that sweet shot of course, but in Italy he was notably a few notches more athletic than his counterparts. You could see it would translate.

Like the 3:30 mark of this video:

Watch on YouTube

Not the block (nice) but the blow by drive on the close out.

There are similarities in size and build. And more than that: both are sons of successful Euroleague players. They have an advanced understanding of the game and that allowed them to jump in as gifted youngsters. Yeah Gallo has a nicer shot, sweet and pretty, where Deni has a tighter handle and body control. I do think Gallinari is an underrated team defender, talkative and aware, orgazing teammates, and calling out where they need to be. I can see Deni seizing a similar role when he acclimates. It's not a perfect comparison, of course, as you note Gallinari is remarkably efficient on offense, no one would project that sort of upside to Avdija. I just mean as far as upside, while I don't project Deni to be a perennial all-star, I can see him having the same sort of value on a team as Gallo. For all the offensive skill Gallo has never been The Man of any NBA team-- he has been a high level role player and a stealth glue guy. He does just enough of everything to be a really good player in the NBA.

When I squint I can see a similar level of acclaim for Deni within reach. He is not a dominant finisher, he's got a nice handle for his size, which will work for him well if he starts hitting outside shots and bigs try to chase him on a close out (see above), he reads the floor well and makes smart passes (though I don't like his 2 hand shoot/pass motion) and he seems like the action is not too quick for him to see, he has an advanced moment to moment read of what is happening. He will make players better around him. Where Gallo improves a team by his range and pretty shooting, Deni has a long way to go, but he looks like he will do just enough of everything at a high level that he will be an excellent teammate and a solid contributor. And if so, that is pretty damn great.

But yes. It would help a ton if he developed reliable range. A go to move on the interior. And made his free throws. He has a ways to go. Fortunately he seems like he has the software and hardware to improve.

[nate33]

What that tells me is that he is living off the refs whistle. If the ref is not blowing the whistle he isn't making his 2 point shots close to .50. That is not very good for a sf/pf. You can not count on Galli making a shot inside the arc during crunch time because without the whistle is shooting percentage is probably even lower than .42%. He lives off the refs whistle if he isn't getting wide open 3 point looks. Deni looks far more likely to not live off the refs whistle and convert above .50 if he takes the ball inside even against contact.

Good point.

Gallo has a career regular season ORtg of 119. If you ignore his first two seasons, he has averaged 8.6 FT's per 100 possessions. His ability to draw fouls makes him hyper efficient.

Gallo has a career playoff ORtg of 102. He has averaged just 6.8 FTA's per 100 possessions in the playoffs. When the refs swallow their whistles, his efficiency collapses.

I don't know what this says about Avdija, but it does suggest that Gallo's numbers are a bit empty and don't hold up when it matters.

[payitforward]

Interesting about Gallinari -- but, in truth, I don't see a lot of reason to compare these two guys.

[tontoz]

Gallo shot 48% on 2s the last two years which is fine considering half his shots are 3s and he gets to the line a lot in spite of his poor hip bend.


He has played only 25 playoff games in his career so I can't take much from a sample size that small.

[arusinov]

Deni is a better athlete than Gallo (by a fair margin at this point, but Gallo has also dealt with a lot of injuries, the difference wouldn't be quite as stark were we to compare them at the same ages).

Well yeah, I meant coming into the league. When he was drafted by the Knicks, as a recovering Knicks fan with friends who are still diehards, I watched a few recorded Milano games (Armani Jeans Milano, how stylish) and thought, well yeah this kid has some NBA level athleticism. He had that sweet shot of course, but in Italy he was notably a few notches more athletic than his counterparts. You could see it would translate.

Like the 3:30 mark of this video:

Watch on YouTube

Not the block (nice) but the blow by drive on the close out.

There are similarities in size and build. And more than that: both are sons of successful Euroleague players. They have an advanced understanding of the game and that allowed them to jump in as gifted youngsters. Yeah Gallo has a nicer shot, sweet and pretty, where Deni has a tighter handle and body control. I do think Gallinari is an underrated team defender, talkative and aware, orgazing teammates, and calling out where they need to be. I can see Deni seizing a similar role when he acclimates. It's not a perfect comparison, of course, as you note Gallinari is remarkably efficient on offense, no one would project that sort of upside to Avdija. I just mean as far as upside, while I don't project Deni to be a perennial all-star, I can see him having the same sort of value on a team as Gallo. For all the offensive skill Gallo has never been The Man of any NBA team-- he has been a high level role player and a stealth glue guy. He does just enough of everything to be a really good player in the NBA.

When I squint I can see a similar level of acclaim for Deni within reach. He is not a dominant finisher, he's got a nice handle for his size, which will work for him well if he starts hitting outside shots and bigs try to chase him on a close out (see above), he reads the floor well and makes smart passes (though I don't like his 2 hand shoot/pass motion) and he seems like the action is not too quick for him to see, he has an advanced moment to moment read of what is happening. He will make players better around him. Where Gallo improves a team by his range and pretty shooting, Deni has a long way to go, but he looks like he will do just enough of everything at a high level that he will be an excellent teammate and a solid contributor. And if so, that is pretty damn great.

But yes. It would help a ton if he developed reliable range. A go to move on the interior. And made his free throws. He has a ways to go. Fortunately he seems like he has the software and hardware to improve.

Just to make things clear. Deni is extremely efficient scorer.

I know people say "he's not dominant finisher" which is totaly based on prejudices. Maybe he will not be able to translate it to NBA but in I-BSL Deni was basically unstoppable finisher, and even if it's not one of best leagues in Europe it's much better league than any NCAA conference.

He scored his 12.9 ppg on 61.3 TS% even with his bad FT% as his eFG% was 60.5%

[tontoz]

Deni looks like he has good mobility from the vids I saw, good quickness and hops for his size. Needs to hit the weights though like most guys his age.

[Dat2U]

Researching Deni I learned his shot failings are supposedly from having "poor energy transfer" as he gathers and shoots. According to recent video workouts he has improved this with good results. Basically its a matter of bringing the ball down a little more than he had done before prior to starting his upwards motion.

[arusinov]

Deni looks like he has good mobility from the vids I saw, good quickness and hops for his size. Needs to hit the weights though like most guys his age.

Did you see his vids before or after Covid19 hiatus?
Before he was some 213 - 215 lbs, waiting for the league to resume he reportedly added some 10 - 12 lbs muscles while getting rid of "baby fat" reducing body fat from ~11% to below 9%

It's not 100% clear on video, but journalists which were present on those bubble games all said that he looked visibly bigger and stronger without loosing in athleticism

[tontoz]

Deni looks like he has good mobility from the vids I saw, good quickness and hops for his size. Needs to hit the weights though like most guys his age.

Did you see his vids before or after Covid19 hiatus?
Before he was some 213 - 215 lbs, waiting for the league to resume he reportedly added some 10 - 12 lbs muscles while getting rid of "baby fat" reducing body fat from ~11% to below 9%

It's not 100% clear on video, but journalists which were present on those bubble games all said that he looked visibly bigger and stronger without loosing in athleticism

The only vids I saw were the ones in the first post of this topic. He looks like he has a good frame so he shouldn't have much trouble putting on some muscle. I am not concerned about it.

[arusinov]

My Avdija's biased assesment from an Israeli fan (I've posted it to his draft thread and on reddit before, just copying it here)

I will not claim that this post is not biased. As Israeli I'm hopeful for Deni and naturally look for his advantages and probably somewhat downplay his short-comes.

But as someone who followed his development for several years I would try to present his case showing facts which many reports lacking or omits while trying to explain why I think Deni is a great pick:

Main selling points which probably known to most people but should be stated as the discussion's starting point

*Excellent playmaking abilities on extremely rare level for 6'9" player:

- proficient in running p&r as a ball handler

- passes very well out of post (including LeBron style cross-court passes)

- great passing in transition

* Versatile and effective scorer

- good finisher around basket: improved a lot this season, has one of best 2P% among all prospects - ~65%, both crafty and athletic, can finish with either hand

- very smart cutter due to his high BBIQ

- advanced post game, can post up on either side

- shooting potential: there're legitimate concerns about 3P% but Avdija has good range and quick release from high point, can shoot off-dribble including step-backs

- Iso-scoring potential - attacks basket successfully when guarded by forwards (and use mismatches closer to basket against smaller wings)

* Can quickly became elite open court player

- good defensive rebounder and great in pushing ball in transition

- can go coast to coast extremely fast

- great passer in high-speed sequences with excellent court vision and top-level passing precision

* High work ethics and drive to win



2. Stereotypes and misunderstanding

* Advija is frequently called "not an athletic player" or at best "just average athlete in NBA" and subsequently compared with really slow and not athletic players like Saric

While not freak athlete Avdija is very athletic player, well above average for NBA forward/big wing

- his straight line speed is rare, he runs near full court with the ball from steal/defensive rebound to dunk in less than 4 seconds

- very good leaping ability, and not only of one-foot per some reports, but of two-feet too: at age of 17 he was measured with no-step vertical of 31" and max vertical of 35", and improved a lot since then: he almost touches rim with his head in some of running dunks (~37-39" max vertical), can easily dunks from standing (~33-34" no-step vertical)

- his good blocking abilities are based not only on positioning but also on very good verticality

- first step is not elite, but still much quicker than of most similar size NBA players

* Another (minor) knock on Avidja's physical qualities is his presumably short wingspan of 6'9".

- actually this number comes from the same measurement 2 years ago as the verticals value, he also was 6'7.5" then so his current wingspan is probably ~6'10.5" which is not that much below NBA's average for his size.

* Many reports claim that he's too weak to defend inside

- it was correct year ago when he weighted 210 lbs, he added muslces before start of the season and in time of Covid-19 hiatus

- now he weights around 227 lbs - without loosing in speed or vertical

- having good relatively wide frame he probably can add another 10-15 lbs while preserving current level of athleticism

* People say that their team needs more defense and "Advija can't defend".

- No one knows whether Advija will be good defender in NBA, but saying about player which had 2.4 blk per game in Euro U20 (including 3.3 blk per game in sequence of QF/ SF /F ) and was considered above average defender in Euroleague as 18 - 19 years old that he "can't defend" seems to be an opinion squarely based on prejudice.

- He is regarded as very good team/ help defender and not bad personal defender on wing (in Euroleague) which can switch on bigs and guards

* Statistics and accomplishments

Many people which call Avdija "just a prospect" seems to know only about his "struggles" (4.0 / 2.6 /1.2) in Euroleague. Others dismiss his Israeli domestic league and Euro U20 success as being against weak competition

While nowhere close to Doncic's success (which is one of the kind) Avdija is one of most accomplished top prospects in recent drafts (as in those one-and-done times most top selections best achievement was getting through couple of rounds in NCAA tournament)

- He was dominant player since junior teams time: MVP of the BWB European Camp, MVP of the BWB Global Camp, all-tournament team selection in Euroleague U18 tournament (with averages of 24.7 pts/ 12.0 rbs / 6.7 ast) and so on

- He was selected to all-tournament team of 2018 Euro U20 while being just 17 years old (some 2.5 younger then average age of players in the tournament)

- At 2019 Euro U20 he provided one of best and most dominating perfromances in the history of the tournament. Avdija posted 18.4 pts, 8.3 reb, 5.3 ast, 2.1 stl, 2.4 blk (top 5 in tournament in each category while being 2nd youngest among all players in the tournament), leading Israeli to the gold and becoming youngest ever Euro U20 MVP.

- In Israeli BSL league Avdija had 12.9 pts (on effective 61.3 TS% scoring), 6.3 reb, 2.7 ast. for the best team in the league and got MVP award

Considering level of competition in Israeli league:

- While certainly not one of best league in Europe I-BSL is still much stronger competition that any NCAA prospect faced

- The league features many ex-NBA players and European vets

- Players which score ~13 - 15ppg like Avdija in I-BSL are expected to score in double digits in more prominent European leagues as for example French LNB-ProA or even Spanish ACB - Tomer Ginat, Rafi Menco, Jake Cohen, Kyvon Davenport are just this year examples

Also there's assumption that even if average level of I-BSL is not really bad - playing specifically for Maccabi is an easy task. This assumption is wrong for for a young player:

- Maccabi's largest (by wide margin) budget still doesn't insure championship. For example in 2015-16 they finished I-BSL regular season 24W /9L in 2nd place, in 2016-17 in 4th place with 14 losses.

- Euroleague is the primary competition for Maccabi but it doesn't mean that losses in I-BSL are tolerated. Usually only really great season in Euroleague may save coach's job in case of failure in the domestic league and so Maccabi is notoriously known for not giving young players opportunities.

- Even if the youngster gets into Maccabi's rotation in I-BSL in order to be among the team's leaders he should outperform ex-NBA players and Euroleague vets.

- This year 24W/ 4L despite many injuries the team was plagued with in very large part because of good play of Avdija

- Most important is Avdija's progress as the season went on: he started season as just a rotational player which didn't start majority of games, but at the second half of the season he became the team go-to player averaging over 15 ppg second half of the season

People claim that Avdija succeeded in lesser competitions but "struggled greatly" in Euroleague but it's not really what happened

- The perceived lack of success in Euroleague was first due to the fact that at the start of the season the coach didn't consider Avdija as part of the team's rotation in Euroleague

- 18 years old players (not named Luka Doncic) are almost never in playoff Euroleague teams' rotation

- Player which " struggles greatly " would get glued to the bench but in fact Advija's minutes and role went up steadily. Minutes went from ~10 min to ~15 min to ~20 min last games, and average production improved from ~2.5 ppg to ~5 ppg to ~7 ppg

- Also while being 3&D wing (which was the only role the coach was ready to give 18 years old in Euroleague) isn't the best fit for Avdija's game, he adopted pretty well - played good defense and finished efficiently around basket on cuts, post-ups and in transition... his 3P shooting was on/off as typical for him right now

* Real concerns

- Deni has great feel for the game and he's very gifted playmaker but his ball handling ability isn't good enough to be primary ball handler as he's very right-hand dominant

- His FT% is weirdly low and his long range shooting is inconsistent. It seems that something in his (looking relatively good) shot mechanics or in his head causes him to be on/off shooter from any distance including FT

* Conclusion

- I don't see any reason why Deni wouldn't became at least roleplayer which can start contribute from the first day.

- Improving ball handling and consistent shot would unlock star potential.

[WizarDynasty]

Researching Deni I learned his shot failings are supposedly from having "poor energy transfer" as he gathers and shoots. According to recent video workouts he has improved this with good results. Basically its a matter of bringing the ball down a little more than he had done before prior to starting his upwards motion.

YOu actually have to bring your hips down and raise your elbow at the same time while arching your lower back. Deni can't arch his lower back while dipping his hips. Dropping the ball is a wasted motion.

[Ruzious]

Researching Deni I learned his shot failings are supposedly from having "poor energy transfer" as he gathers and shoots. According to recent video workouts he has improved this with good results. Basically its a matter of bringing the ball down a little more than he had done before prior to starting his upwards motion.

YOu actually have to bring your hips down and raise your elbow at the same time while arching your lower back. Deni can't arch his lower back while dipping his hips. Dropping the ball is a wasted motion.

Therefore, the best way to improve your 3 is shooting them while playing a game of Twister. Any good shooting coach understands that.

Seriously, I did notice he doesn't bring the ball down as far as most players do in their 3 point shooting motion. I regarded that as a plus, because there's less motion needed so he gets the shot off quicker. But, apparently the problem that causes is what Dat pointed out, so his new stroke might take a bit longer to release, but it'll be more accurate, and it's well worth making that tradeoff.

[WizarDynasty]

Researching Deni I learned his shot failings are supposedly from having "poor energy transfer" as he gathers and shoots. According to recent video workouts he has improved this with good results. Basically its a matter of bringing the ball down a little more than he had done before prior to starting his upwards motion.

YOu actually have to bring your hips down and raise your elbow at the same time while arching your lower back. Deni can't arch his lower back while dipping his hips. Dropping the ball is a wasted motion.

Therefore, the best way to improve your 3 is shooting them while playing a game of Twister. Any good shooting coach understands that.

Seriously, I did notice he doesn't bring the ball down as far as most players do in their 3 point shooting motion. I regarded that as a plus, because there's less motion needed so he gets the shot off quicker. But, apparently the problem that causes is what Dat pointed out, so his new stroke might take a bit longer to release, but it'll be more accurate, and it's well worth making that tradeoff.

You have to pay atttention to his lower back before he rises, that is key adjusting your shot after you leave you feet. If your back isn't arched before you rise, it's too much strain to adjust create an arch in midair and adjust your elbow based on visual stimulus. He should be arching his back and dropping his his hips and raising the ball at the same time. The quicker you can do these three things as once, the more potent and accurate you will be shooting off the dribble.
Arching your back before you rise, allows you brain to focus more on your elbow and finger tips.
Deni doesn't arch his back until he is off his feet. Dramatically decreases accuracy.

[Dat2U]

Researching Deni I learned his shot failings are supposedly from having "poor energy transfer" as he gathers and shoots. According to recent video workouts he has improved this with good results. Basically its a matter of bringing the ball down a little more than he had done before prior to starting his upwards motion.

YOu actually have to bring your hips down and raise your elbow at the same time while arching your lower back. Deni can't arch his lower back while dipping his hips. Dropping the ball is a wasted motion.

Therefore, the best way to improve your 3 is shooting them while playing a game of Twister. Any good shooting coach understands that.

Seriously, I did notice he doesn't bring the ball down as far as most players do in their 3 point shooting motion. I regarded that as a plus, because there's less motion needed so he gets the shot off quicker. But, apparently the problem that causes is what Dat pointed out, so his new stroke might take a bit longer to release, but it'll be more accurate, and it's well worth making that tradeoff.

Watch on YouTube

From 8:25 to 6:20 he goes into detail regarding his jump shot.

[WizarDynasty]

YOu actually have to bring your hips down and raise your elbow at the same time while arching your lower back. Deni can't arch his lower back while dipping his hips. Dropping the ball is a wasted motion.

Therefore, the best way to improve your 3 is shooting them while playing a game of Twister. Any good shooting coach understands that.

Seriously, I did notice he doesn't bring the ball down as far as most players do in their 3 point shooting motion. I regarded that as a plus, because there's less motion needed so he gets the shot off quicker. But, apparently the problem that causes is what Dat pointed out, so his new stroke might take a bit longer to release, but it'll be more accurate, and it's well worth making that tradeoff.

Watch on YouTube

From 8:25 to 6:20 he goes into detail regarding his jump shot.

Wow that entire video mentioned nothing about Deni not quickly generating an lower arch in his lower back before he rises into his jumpshot. Or even his lack of ability to simultaneously generate a lower back arch while generating a deep hip bend before rising into his shot. He also didn't mention anything about how Deni locks his elbow just before he shoots. The elbow should always be in motion. The ball should travel from the bounce in a steady arc toward the basket and any stoppage of the balls motion is bad. If you break his shot into slow motion on camera, any time the ball actually pauses means there is a error in Deni's mechanics. I see alot of ball movement stops in his shooting motion. Largely his elbow locks just before he shoots and he does generate a quick and deep hip bend before he rises into his shot. He has really stiff hips in his shot, but dribbling he has elite hip bend. He is capable of it but hasn't received the correct coaching. He needs alot of guided repetition with being able to create more flexibility in his hips and doing it much more quickly.
My suggestion is for him to wear a weight vest, hop over cement bricks sideways into his shot and immediately rise up and shoot when his elbow is pointing to the rim. that should help him generate the hip power and flexibility he needs. Just a suggestion. Should have been the number one thing mentioned in the video.

[Ruzious]

Therefore, the best way to improve your 3 is shooting them while playing a game of Twister. Any good shooting coach understands that.

Seriously, I did notice he doesn't bring the ball down as far as most players do in their 3 point shooting motion. I regarded that as a plus, because there's less motion needed so he gets the shot off quicker. But, apparently the problem that causes is what Dat pointed out, so his new stroke might take a bit longer to release, but it'll be more accurate, and it's well worth making that tradeoff.

Watch on YouTube

From 8:25 to 6:20 he goes into detail regarding his jump shot.

Wow that entire video mentioned nothing about Deni not quickly generating an lower arch in his lower back before he rises into his jumpshot. Or even his lack of ability to simultaneously generate a lower back arch while generating a deep hip bend before rising into his shot. He also didn't mention anything about how Deni locks his elbow just before he shoots. The elbow should always be in motion. The ball should travel from the bounce in a steady arc toward the basket and any stoppage of the balls motion is bad. If you break his shot into slow motion on camera, any time the ball actually pauses means there is a error in Deni's mechanics. I see alot of ball movement stops in his shooting motion. Largely his elbow locks just before he shoots and he does generate a quick and deep hip bend before he rises into his shot. He has really stiff hips in his shot, but dribbling he has elite hip bend. He is capable of it but hasn't received the correct coaching. He needs alot of guided repetition with being able to create more flexibility in his hips and doing it much more quickly.
My suggestion is for him to wear a weight vest, hop over cement bricks sideways into his shot and immediately rise up and shoot when his elbow is pointing to the rim. that should help him generate the hip power and flexibility he needs. Just a suggestion. Should have been the number one thing mentioned in the video.

And a way to increase the speed of the shooting motion is to have him jump barefoot off of hot coals in his shooting drills. He should definitely try that first. It would also be last. That could also improve his foot speed.

[tontoz]

My suggestion is for him to wear a weight vest, hop over cement bricks sideways into his shot and immediately rise up and shoot when his elbow is pointing to the rim. that should help him generate the hip power and flexibility he needs.

Not sure if that would help his shooting but it would make for a great video.

[nate33]

To this day, I still have no idea what WizD means when he talks about deep hip bend. Is that like a low squat position? Is it a bend at the waist like you are touching your toes? In either case, I can't imagine how being in that position helps your shooting motion.

[NatP4]

To this day, I still have no idea what WizD means when he talks about deep hip bend. Is that like a low squat position? Is it a bend at the waist like you are touching your toes? In either case, I can't imagine how being in that position helps your shooting motion.

Like Paul Pierce

[doclinkin]

To this day, I still have no idea what WizD means when he talks about deep hip bend. Is that like a low squat position? Is it a bend at the waist like you are touching your toes? In either case, I can't imagine how being in that position helps your shooting motion.

It means different things all the time. Basically he has decided he is a guru of physical form, but where he used to use the term 'bowlegged' for staying in a low defensive stance, now he uses the term 'hip bend'. He has decided that it also means something on offense, though I'm not sure what considering the best standstill jumpers and 2nd jump athletes basically pogo-stick with very little flex. Maybe he means keeping a low dribble on the drive. Not sure. Newly he has decided arch in the lower back is important, and also a high elbow on the jumper. But it seems to shift around since he makes excuses for players he likes that do not seem to match players he has spoken against. But mostly I don't bring it up because to do so will mean a page long thesis with little to no punctuation and very definite opinions on something that to me seems the biometric equivalent of phrenology. I like seeing WizD on here, but there is only so much hip bend I can take. Which is surely why I am not an NBA player.