RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #21 (Charles Barkley)

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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #21 

Post#81 » by eminence » Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:13 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
What's fascinating there is that '16-17 Curry appears to be the all-time record holder in terms of raw +/-.

In '16-17 Curry had a +1257 while Durant had a +888, yet despite this and the fact that Durant ring-chased his way to the Warriors, people think Durant carried Curry to the title.


It's almost certainly the record, though I don't have recent seasons on hand. '94-'16 look like this (from Colts18):

On court Net +/-, On court per 100 poss, Net Plus/Minus per 100 poss
1. 16 Green, +1070, +18.3, +25.1
2. 16 Curry +1022, +17.9, +22.2
3. 96 Jordan +980, +16.7, +15.2
4. 15 Curry +920, +16.6, +17.8
5. 96 Pippen +899, +16.8, +11.8
6. 09 James +871, +15, +21.2
7. 15 Green +839, +16.5, +15.4
8. 16 Thompson +835, +15.2, +12.7
9. 97 Jordan +818, +14, +9.7
10. 97 Pippen +807, +13.9, +9
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #21 

Post#82 » by colts18 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:24 pm

The 2017 RAPM results had Curry as the engine of the Warriors offense. 5 Warriors in the Top 13 :o

Name Offense Defense Total
Stephen Curry 6.56 1.01 7.57
LeBron James 5.66 1.83 7.49
Draymond Green 1.28 4.04 5.33
Kawhi Leonard 5.01 0.3 5.32
Chris Paul 2.5 2.5 5
Kyle Lowry 2.37 2.26 4.63
Nikola Jokic 3.33 1.2 4.53
Jae Crowder 2.57 1.77 4.34
Rudy Gobert 0.37 3.89 4.27
Kevin Durant 3.73 0.4 4.13
Kevin Love 2.16 1.85 4.01
JaVale McGee 3.9 -0.02 3.88
Klay Thompson 2.09 1.64 3.73


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CiOqGlz6zjjmjUlJBNOXflG6wYAS1RLjZjtZSQHraF4/edit#gid=0
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #21 

Post#83 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:30 pm

penbeast0 wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:...as my judgment wouldn't have him quite as high. All-around he doesnt have the single negative of defense (Curry) peak (Stockton) efficiency (Thomas) career length (Frazier).


I find Barkley's defense to be significantly more of a problem than Curry's who I consider okay rather than bad. For that matter I give Barkley a stronger hit than Nash, whose defense get routinely slammed here. Why? (a) big man have a much stronger defensive role than smaller players, being responsible for shutting off the paths to the rim as well as for their man; Barkley got caught not paying attention to other players (or ball watching and losing his man) more often than any other top 50 candidate I can think of with the possible exception of George Gervin and I think Barkley was worse at it than Gervin. (b) The type of defensive lapses, ie. taking plays off, ignoring teammates who needed help, missing switches, etc. which I aggregate as lack of defensive focus, to me as a coach tends to create problems with the defense of teammates as well as they know you won't be doing your job consistently so they feel they have to ignore the defensive system and play more man oriented defense.


Completely agree that Barkley's defense was more problematic than Curry's. Barkley isn't taking the place of a point guard out there, he's taking the place of a wing/big who should generally be expected to be counted on on defense rather than just coasting.

You can argue that you can't "pick on" Barkley the same way you can with Curry from a switching perspective, but so much of defensive achievement is about giving a damn when no one is focused on you.

Barkley did one thing very well on defense, he was very difficult to move off post position with his strength and low center of gravity. HE was also above average at chase down style recovery when he was trying. Similarly, Gervin did one thing very well on defense, he was one of the best shotblocking 2's ever (DWade is the only one I would say was better) and, like Barkley, did an above average job of chase down style recovery with his great athleticism. It's not enough in either case for me not to push them down from the level they would be in an offense/statistics only comparison on this list.

penbeast0 wrote:I don't really consider Frazier a short prime player. He had an 8 year run as a top 5 guard in the league plus 1 more year as a very good starter. He didn't have a long run as a roleplayer type and that's at the short end of solid prime for me, but 8 years to me is a solid prime. Of course, I'm also voting Curry at the moment and supported Mikan for a long time so I'm not one of the major longevity advocates here.


Since you're getting into Frazier and others here, I'll jump in.

I find myself thinking that the real root of the dilemma with Frazier is that he was only actually relevant for a few years. The Knicks were elite when healthy from '68-69 to '72-73, and that's it. Beginning in '73-74 you can completely ignore them, and Frazier is only 28 years old at the time having not made all-star before the age of 24.

That's either a really short prime, or it's an acknowledgement that prime Frazier didn't necessarily give you as much as you thought.

In '73-74 the Knicks have Frazier & Monroe in their prime along with 3 future HOFers (not counting the injured) Reed, yet the team offense was below average. Why?

Also, while there's no doubt that Frazier was amazing on those earlier elite Knicks teams, don't we tend to expect a top tier point guard to be able to step up his primacy if that's what the team needs? If old man Chris Paul can go to a tanking team and lead them to an offense that's better what you necessarily get from a team with prime Frazier and a gaggle of HOFers who know how to play together, do we really feel comfortable putting Frazier ahead of Paul?

Again, I really love those apex Knicks and tend to see Frazier as the single most important ingredient for them, but it's weird to me the way they dissolved so quickly without Reed, particularly on offense. Seems like they should have been able to do more.

penbeast0 wrote:I won't be supporting Walton in my top 100 because he was only around for 1 real playoff run as a starter (but demanded superstar money for almost a decade despite that) but he's the extreme case of having only 1 true star season (plus one MVP caliber 2/3 of a season he didn't make the playoffs and 1 SMOY year where he did).


On Walton, I completely respect people who don't vote for Walton because of longevity issues.

But I do also think that there's a reason why he was voted into the NBA's Top 50. What Walton did matters in a way that, say, Adrian Dantley does not. If you're looking to win championships, Walton's health gives you a very limited window in which you can expect him to lead you there, but that's better to my eyes than someone who tends to lower your ceiling below serious championship contention.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #21 

Post#84 » by DQuinn1575 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:30 pm

penbeast0 wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:...as my judgment wouldn't have him quite as high. All-around he doesnt have the single negative of defense (Curry) peak (Stockton) efficiency (Thomas) career length (Frazier).


I find Barkley's defense to be significantly more of a problem than Curry's who I consider okay rather than bad. For that matter I give Barkley a stronger hit than Nash, whose defense get routinely slammed here. Why? (a) big man have a much stronger defensive role than smaller players, being responsible for shutting off the paths to the rim as well as for their man; Barkley got caught not paying attention to other players (or ball watching and losing his man) more often than any other top 50 candidate I can think of with the possible exception of George Gervin and I think Barkley was worse at it than Gervin. (b) The type of defensive lapses, ie. taking plays off, ignoring teammates who needed help, missing switches, etc. which I aggregate as lack of defensive focus, to me as a coach tends to create problems with the defense of teammates as well as they know you won't be doing your job consistently so they feel they have to ignore the defensive system and play more man oriented defense.

Barkley did one thing very well on defense, he was very difficult to move off post position with his strength and low center of gravity. HE was also above average at chase down style recovery when he was trying. Similarly, Gervin did one thing very well on defense, he was one of the best shotblocking 2's ever (DWade is the only one I would say was better) and, like Barkley, did an above average job of chase down style recovery with his great athleticism. It's not enough in either case for me not to push them down from the level they would be in an offense/statistics only comparison on this list.

I don't really consider Frazier a short prime player. He had an 8 year run as a top 5 guard in the league plus 1 more year as a very good starter. He didn't have a long run as a roleplayer type and that's at the short end of solid prime for me, but 8 years to me is a solid prime. Of course, I'm also voting Curry at the moment and supported Mikan for a long time so I'm not one of the major longevity advocates here.

I won't be supporting Walton in my top 100 because he was only around for 1 real playoff run as a starter (but demanded superstar money for almost a decade despite that) but he's the extreme case of having only 1 true star season (plus one MVP caliber 2/3 of a season he didn't make the playoffs and 1 SMOY year where he did).

For that matter, not sure Stockton's peak is that weak, just people tend to overrate scoring and underrate, well, everything else. And his prime was incredibly consistent so even a lesser peak would be a lesser penalty in my book. I have him over Nash and Frazier, behind Curry, and probably behind Chris Paul too (I love the turnover efficiency!).


Thanks for the reply, I might have shortcutted every one in a single word or phrase, but was using that vs Paul, and not Durant or Barkley. Curry also only has played 699, Frazier 825 vs Chris Paul with 1,020, plus on a per game basis Paul leads that as well. Using the methodology, that is 2 of the 7 criteria I have where Paul has a decent advantage. I can really make a case for any of the guards listed, it seems like Paul comes up decent in each category, enough so that he edged out a lot of great players. If I rank these guys again in 6 months, I'm fairly sure my order will be different. This exercise has been a change for me, I am giving longevity much more weight than I ever had.
BTW, the first time I think I ever ranked players all-time I did it as first team, second team, etc. I had Frazier second team behind West and Oscar; don't remember who my other guard was; it was a long time ago.
Again, I used a number based system, which means I relied on winshares for defense, and while there are things I like about it, I do think it overrates good rebounders on defense, so Chuck isn't as penalized. I'm not where I'd like to be in fleshing this whole thing out, but I also think it doesnt reward high scoring efficiency enough either.
Right now I'm voting, and trying to pick the best one, but feel the next 8-10 picks or so are all pretty good players who have a good case. To me there are the First 4, the Next 7 (which to me doesnt have Garnett) then about 8 other guys (who are all now in). This next group of 10 or is fairly even. I don't see me making long posts about someone while this group goes in; they all have a good case, but if any of them checked all the boxes they would be Top 15, and not 21 or so.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #21 

Post#85 » by colts18 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:34 pm

eminence wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
What's fascinating there is that '16-17 Curry appears to be the all-time record holder in terms of raw +/-.

In '16-17 Curry had a +1257 while Durant had a +888, yet despite this and the fact that Durant ring-chased his way to the Warriors, people think Durant carried Curry to the title.


It's almost certainly the record, though I don't have recent seasons on hand. '94-'16 look like this (from Colts18):

On court Net +/-, On court per 100 poss, Net Plus/Minus per 100 poss
1. 16 Green, +1070, +18.3, +25.1
2. 16 Curry +1022, +17.9, +22.2
3. 96 Jordan +980, +16.7, +15.2
4. 15 Curry +920, +16.6, +17.8
5. 96 Pippen +899, +16.8, +11.8
6. 09 James +871, +15, +21.2
7. 15 Green +839, +16.5, +15.4
8. 16 Thompson +835, +15.2, +12.7
9. 97 Jordan +818, +14, +9.7
10. 97 Pippen +807, +13.9, +9


Top 10 On Court +/- for 1994-2020 (27 seasons):

1. 16 Draymond Green +1071
2. 16 Stephen Curry +1022
3. 17 Stephen Curry +1013
4. 96 Michael Jordan +980
5. 15 Stephen Curry +921
6. 96 Scottie Pippen +899
7. 09 LeBron James +871
8. 16 Klay Thompson +837
9. 15 Draymond Green +833
10. 17 Draymond Green +820

All of the players played on the Warriors or Bulls dynasty with the exception of LeBron James.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #21 

Post#86 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:35 pm

eminence wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
What's fascinating there is that '16-17 Curry appears to be the all-time record holder in terms of raw +/-.

In '16-17 Curry had a +1257 while Durant had a +888, yet despite this and the fact that Durant ring-chased his way to the Warriors, people think Durant carried Curry to the title.


It's almost certainly the record, though I don't have recent seasons on hand. '94-'16 look like this (from Colts18):

On court Net +/-, On court per 100 poss, Net Plus/Minus per 100 poss
1. 16 Green, +1070, +18.3, +25.1
2. 16 Curry +1022, +17.9, +22.2
3. 96 Jordan +980, +16.7, +15.2
4. 15 Curry +920, +16.6, +17.8
5. 96 Pippen +899, +16.8, +11.8
6. 09 James +871, +15, +21.2
7. 15 Green +839, +16.5, +15.4
8. 16 Thompson +835, +15.2, +12.7
9. 97 Jordan +818, +14, +9.7
10. 97 Pippen +807, +13.9, +9


I believe you're looking at regular season only there. If we do it by all-season then '17 Curry gives you a +17.4 net while '16 Green gets a 16.4 net.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #21 

Post#87 » by Hal14 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:47 pm

1. Elgin Baylor
2. Bob Pettit
3. Charles Barkley

Baylor gets the slight edge over Pettit because Baylor was faster, better passer and better ball handler. And in terms of impact, Baylor was Dr. J before Dr. J. Baylor was Connie Hawkins before Connie Hawkins. Jordan modeled his game after Dr. J, as did Dominique Wilkins. Kobe and LeBron modeled their game after Jordan. Baylor was a pioneer. He paved the way for all of the explosive, big, strong, athletic wings to come later.

And speaking of impact, you could also make the argument that Baylor is the one who invented the euro-step:



Also, Pettit's crowning achievement was his 50 point, 19 rebound game to led the Hawks to the win in game 6 over the Celtics to clinch the 1958 NBA championship. However, Russell only played 20 minutes that game because he had a severely sprained ankle suffered in game 3 of that series. Baylor meanwhile, scored 61 points and pulled down 22 rebounds to lead the Lakers to a win over the Celtics in game 5 of the 1962 NBA finals, so Baylor put up better numbers and did it against a healthy Russell who played all 48 minutes of that game. Baylor also played all 48 minutes that game. Jerry West? He had 26 points, 4 rebounds and 0 assists.

Baylor is the best all-around player left on the board IMO when you take into account his scoring, rebounding, passing, defense, ball handling and ability to score/defend both inside and outside.

Baylor and Pettit are both very close and it's definitely debatable which was the greater player. I think both have a case to be top 20 of all time. Scary to think how good they would have been if they played in the modern era with the advantage of 50 years of advances in basketball skills, more favorable rule changes, less days off between games, better equipment, better facilities, better weight training, better nutrition, better sports science, etc.

Baylor's teammate Jerry West is the no. 13 player on this list. And while I do have West ranked ahead of Baylor all-time, it is very close, so if West is no. 13 then Baylor could definitely be the no. 21 guy, considering that when they were teammates, Baylor was often times the better player. Lakers broadcaster Chick Hearn was quoted saying that Baylor was the best player he covered - not West. West is quoted saying that Baylor was better than him. Both Baylor and West made first team all NBA 10 times. Baylor was a better rebounder than Wes, a bigger, stronger more powerful player who could score and defend just as well inside as he could outside.
Nothing wrong with having a different opinion - as long as it's done respectfully. It'd be lame if we all agreed on everything :)
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #21 

Post#88 » by Cavsfansince84 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:48 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
What's fascinating there is that '16-17 Curry appears to be the all-time record holder in terms of raw +/-.

In '16-17 Curry had a +1257 while Durant had a +888, yet despite this and the fact that Durant ring-chased his way to the Warriors, people think Durant carried Curry to the title.

Re: 85-95 competition. It's fine to bring that up, it's not like Curry hasn't put up seasons that would have put him in the Top 2 in a bunch of those years. Barkley was where he was because his performance was generally pretty inconsistent. He took a lot of possessions off on defense, and his impact from year to year really seemed shaped by his mood.

I'll mention another raw +/- stat I like - and as always, I know these stats are not the end-all, be-all, but they are concrete stuff everyone can understand that few are aware of:

We know that Barkley either led his team in +/- 6 or 7 times (we're missing '92-93 which is a likely yes), despite as you say, typically being seen as by far the most talented player on his roster.

We know that Curry has already led his team in +/- 6 times, which includes 3 times topping Durant.

We also know that Durant has only led his team in +/- 3 times total, but given that he played with Harden, Westbrook, and Curry, quite frankly I don't think it's any kind of a given that Barkley is more accomplished along these lines than Durant is.


My opinion on the +/- stat is that I would guess a lot of that came in time where KD missed games. Steph played over 600 more minutes than KD that year. I also think the whole 'KD carried Steph' narrative is there but not really a popular one. If I had to guess I think its more widely viewed that Steph was the primary player on those teams with maybe 10-20% saying it was KD and probably half saying it was even. My other thing is that I'm not that sold on the whole idea of +/- as a great metric. Its ok. Its just one of many that I think should be used though. There's a lot of stuff that can play into it. I also did a post above on how I view KD from 17-19 which gives my views on why I think KD is slightly underrated now.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #21 

Post#89 » by colts18 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:48 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
eminence wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
What's fascinating there is that '16-17 Curry appears to be the all-time record holder in terms of raw +/-.

In '16-17 Curry had a +1257 while Durant had a +888, yet despite this and the fact that Durant ring-chased his way to the Warriors, people think Durant carried Curry to the title.


It's almost certainly the record, though I don't have recent seasons on hand. '94-'16 look like this (from Colts18):

On court Net +/-, On court per 100 poss, Net Plus/Minus per 100 poss
1. 16 Green, +1070, +18.3, +25.1
2. 16 Curry +1022, +17.9, +22.2
3. 96 Jordan +980, +16.7, +15.2
4. 15 Curry +920, +16.6, +17.8
5. 96 Pippen +899, +16.8, +11.8
6. 09 James +871, +15, +21.2
7. 15 Green +839, +16.5, +15.4
8. 16 Thompson +835, +15.2, +12.7
9. 97 Jordan +818, +14, +9.7
10. 97 Pippen +807, +13.9, +9


I believe you're looking at regular season only there. If we do it by all-season then '17 Curry gives you a +17.4 net while '16 Green gets a 16.4 net.


Top playoff runs from 1997-2020:

Rk Player Season PTS
1 Stephen Curry 2016-17 +244
2 Draymond Green 2016-17 +227
3 Kobe Bryant 2000-01 +213
4 LeBron James 2015-16 +210
5 Kevin Durant 2017-18 +206
6 Ben Wallace 2003-04 +202
7 LeBron James 2011-12 +199
8 LeBron James 2016-17 +195
9 David Robinson 1998-99 +194
10 Klay Thompson 2016-17 +193


23 Kevin Durant 2016-17 +177
27 Stephen Curry 2014-15 +167
42 Stephen Curry 2017-18 +147
79 Stephen Curry 2018-19 +121

Curry with 4 runs in the top 100. Durant is at 2. Draymond Green was in the top 100 in all 5 of the Warriors postseasons.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #21 

Post#90 » by Jordan Syndrome » Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:52 pm

colts18 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
eminence wrote:
It's almost certainly the record, though I don't have recent seasons on hand. '94-'16 look like this (from Colts18):

On court Net +/-, On court per 100 poss, Net Plus/Minus per 100 poss
1. 16 Green, +1070, +18.3, +25.1
2. 16 Curry +1022, +17.9, +22.2
3. 96 Jordan +980, +16.7, +15.2
4. 15 Curry +920, +16.6, +17.8
5. 96 Pippen +899, +16.8, +11.8
6. 09 James +871, +15, +21.2
7. 15 Green +839, +16.5, +15.4
8. 16 Thompson +835, +15.2, +12.7
9. 97 Jordan +818, +14, +9.7
10. 97 Pippen +807, +13.9, +9


I believe you're looking at regular season only there. If we do it by all-season then '17 Curry gives you a +17.4 net while '16 Green gets a 16.4 net.


Top playoff runs from 1997-2020:

Rk Player Season PTS
1 Stephen Curry 2016-17 +244
2 Draymond Green 2016-17 +227
3 Kobe Bryant 2000-01 +213
4 LeBron James 2015-16 +210
5 Kevin Durant 2017-18 +206
6 Ben Wallace 2003-04 +202
7 LeBron James 2011-12 +199
8 LeBron James 2016-17 +195
9 David Robinson 1998-99 +194
10 Klay Thompson 2016-17 +193


23 Kevin Durant 2016-17 +177
27 Stephen Curry 2014-15 +167
42 Stephen Curry 2017-18 +147
79 Stephen Curry 2018-19 +121

Curry with 4 runs in the top 100. Durant is at 2. Draymond Green was in the top 100 in all 5 of the Warriors postseasons.


Stockton: 0
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #21 

Post#91 » by DQuinn1575 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:54 pm

colts18 wrote:
eminence wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
What's fascinating there is that '16-17 Curry appears to be the all-time record holder in terms of raw +/-.

In '16-17 Curry had a +1257 while Durant had a +888, yet despite this and the fact that Durant ring-chased his way to the Warriors, people think Durant carried Curry to the title.


It's almost certainly the record, though I don't have recent seasons on hand. '94-'16 look like this (from Colts18):

On court Net +/-, On court per 100 poss, Net Plus/Minus per 100 poss
1. 16 Green, +1070, +18.3, +25.1
2. 16 Curry +1022, +17.9, +22.2
3. 96 Jordan +980, +16.7, +15.2
4. 15 Curry +920, +16.6, +17.8
5. 96 Pippen +899, +16.8, +11.8
6. 09 James +871, +15, +21.2
7. 15 Green +839, +16.5, +15.4
8. 16 Thompson +835, +15.2, +12.7
9. 97 Jordan +818, +14, +9.7
10. 97 Pippen +807, +13.9, +9


Top 10 On Court +/- for 1994-2020 (27 seasons):

1. 16 Draymond Green +1071
2. 16 Stephen Curry +1022
3. 17 Stephen Curry +1013
4. 96 Michael Jordan +980
5. 15 Stephen Curry +921
6. 96 Scottie Pippen +899
7. 09 LeBron James +871
8. 16 Klay Thompson +837
9. 15 Draymond Green +833
10. 17 Draymond Green +820

All of the players played on the Warriors or Bulls dynasty with the exception of LeBron James.

All great seasons, seems if you look at on/off it really says that the 97 Bulls without Jordan and Pippen were still a plus 4-5 team, maybe 6th best team in the league?? And were way better than 16 Warriors bench, which is maybe minus 4-6 without Green and Curry.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #21 

Post#92 » by eminence » Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:55 pm

What I'm hearing is I need to start making my DrayGOAT cases.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #21 

Post#93 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:02 pm

colts18 wrote:Top 10 On Court +/- for 1994-2020 (27 seasons):

1. 16 Draymond Green +1071
2. 16 Stephen Curry +1022
3. 17 Stephen Curry +1013
4. 96 Michael Jordan +980
5. 15 Stephen Curry +921
6. 96 Scottie Pippen +899
7. 09 LeBron James +871
8. 16 Klay Thompson +837
9. 15 Draymond Green +833
10. 17 Draymond Green +820

All of the players played on the Warriors or Bulls dynasty with the exception of LeBron James.


And for the record, all-season-wise going back to '96-97 (we don't have playoff +/- for '95-96 as far as I know)

1. 17 Stephen Curry +1257
2. 16 Draymond Green +1211
3. 15 Stephen Curry +1088
4. 16 Stephen Curry +1069
5. 17 Draymond Green +1047
6. 15 Draymond Green +1024
7. 09 LeBron James +993
7. 17 Klay Thompson +993
9. 97 Michael Jordan +954
10. 96 Scottie Pippen +929

I think it likely that if we had the data for '96 Jordan he'd end up 3rd on this list.

I also find it noteworthy that Kevin Durant joined a 73-9 team that with his addition gave us the top raw +/- season we have on record, and Durant still couldn't crack the top 10 list. To me that speaks to a lack of team play savvy.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #21 

Post#94 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:08 pm

eminence wrote:What I'm hearing is I need to start making my DrayGOAT cases.


I think we all need to chew on how we see Green.

For me, I see him as a guy who:

1. Had a particularly strong year where he was completely on it defensively and he himself equipped himself with some nice shooting, but this hasn't been sustainable.

2. Is an incredible fit next to Steph, Klay, and KD. Put enough amazing shooters on the court and your best playmaker becomes more valuable. Lose enough of them and he's got no one to pass it to.

3. Had played an absolutely vital role for a dominant dynasty for which he should be seen as a lock for the Hall and certainly makes my Top 100.

4. But whose personality is too bombastic to simply be seen as "a major positive". When Green lobbied hard to get KD to come to the Warriors I said to myself "Okay, now he better be a freaking angel in the locker room or else he may well end up ruining things", and well, he and KD ruined it. I blame the both of them, and really I don't think anyone could have stopped it all from falling apart if Dray & KD were going to handle things that way.

When I rank guys, the level I generally start with is on the draft level. In the 2012 draft, looking at what they've done right now, as impressive as Dray has been, I still think I'd put both AD and Dame ahead of him all sides considered.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #21 

Post#95 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:22 pm

Cavsfansince84 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
What's fascinating there is that '16-17 Curry appears to be the all-time record holder in terms of raw +/-.

In '16-17 Curry had a +1257 while Durant had a +888, yet despite this and the fact that Durant ring-chased his way to the Warriors, people think Durant carried Curry to the title.

Re: 85-95 competition. It's fine to bring that up, it's not like Curry hasn't put up seasons that would have put him in the Top 2 in a bunch of those years. Barkley was where he was because his performance was generally pretty inconsistent. He took a lot of possessions off on defense, and his impact from year to year really seemed shaped by his mood.

I'll mention another raw +/- stat I like - and as always, I know these stats are not the end-all, be-all, but they are concrete stuff everyone can understand that few are aware of:

We know that Barkley either led his team in +/- 6 or 7 times (we're missing '92-93 which is a likely yes), despite as you say, typically being seen as by far the most talented player on his roster.

We know that Curry has already led his team in +/- 6 times, which includes 3 times topping Durant.

We also know that Durant has only led his team in +/- 3 times total, but given that he played with Harden, Westbrook, and Curry, quite frankly I don't think it's any kind of a given that Barkley is more accomplished along these lines than Durant is.


My opinion on the +/- stat is that I would guess a lot of that came in time where KD missed games. Steph played over 600 more minutes than KD that year. I also think the whole 'KD carried Steph' narrative is there but not really a popular one. If I had to guess I think its more widely viewed that Steph was the primary player on those teams with maybe 10-20% saying it was KD and probably half saying it was even. My other thing is that I'm not that sold on the whole idea of +/- as a great metric. Its ok. Its just one of many that I think should be used though. There's a lot of stuff that can play into it. I also did a post above on how I view KD from 17-19 which gives my views on why I think KD is slightly underrated now.


Okay, but let's note something here:

In '16-17, Durant played 2592 minutes total, and this led him to be 4th on the team (and in the league) in +/-.
In '17-18, Curry played 2172 minutes total, and this led him to be 1st on the team (and in the league) in +/-.

This goes along with what has already been mentioned that in '16-17 the team played better with Curry on the court than Durant despite the fact Durant got the benefit of playing a considerably larger fraction of his minutes with Curry than vice versa.

Re: KD carried Steph narrative not really popular. I mean, KD may get the vote here over Curry. If you thought Curry was the more valuable player on that team, I honestly don't know how you could possibly vote for KD over Curry. How on earth can you side with a guy who gave up on his own team only to be a sidekick on an existing champion over the guy he was the sidekick too? I really have to conclude that you buy that Durant was just always the better player (not a sidekick in any way, shape, or form) and just happened to not have more team success than Curry before or during their time together.

Re: A lot of stuff can play into +/-. There are myriad more reliable stats based on +/- that you can look at. If you find something that's more reliable that in this family of stats that favors Durant you should mention it. Short of that, I'd say you just have to accept that based on whose presence correlates more with winning basketball, it's Curry, and you have to make pro-Durant arguments based on some notion of playoff superiority.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #21 

Post#96 » by Cavsfansince84 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:31 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
Okay, but let's note something here:

In '16-17, Durant played 2592 minutes total, and this led him to be 4th on the team (and in the league) in +/-.
In '17-18, Curry played 2172 minutes total, and this led him to be 1st on the team (and in the league) in +/-.

This goes along with what has already been mentioned that in '16-17 the team played better with Curry on the court than Durant despite the fact Durant got the benefit of playing a considerably larger fraction of his minutes with Curry than vice versa.

Re: KD carried Steph narrative not really popular. I mean, KD may get the vote here over Curry. If you thought Curry was the more valuable player on that team, I honestly don't know how you could possibly vote for KD over Curry. How on earth can you side with a guy who gave up on his own team only to be a sidekick on an existing champion over the guy he was the sidekick too? I really have to conclude that you buy that Durant was just always the better player (not a sidekick in any way, shape, or form) and just happened to not have more team success than Curry before or during their time together.

Re: A lot of stuff can play into +/-. There are myriad more reliable stats based on +/- that you can look at. If you find something that's more reliable that in this family of stats that favors Durant you should mention it. Short of that, I'd say you just have to accept that based on whose presence correlates more with winning basketball, it's Curry, and you have to make pro-Durant arguments based on some notion of playoff superiority.


In all honesty I've heard all of these sorts of stats before so I'm familiar with this line of thinking with regards to the Curry/KD dynamic on the court. I'm not entirely sold on that being a deciding factor as to who the better player is though because I think those teams were built around Steph. Had Steph gone to Okc for instance and played with WB and KD it might not play out that way. I do think KD is more resilient to some degree in the playoffs. I'm sort of over debating KD v Steph though. I had another point I really wanted to make but now I'm having trouble remembering it. As I said above though, I think KD was primed to have some great seasons in that 17-19 range which may be viewed as his best seasons had he not gone to gs.

Though regarding Steph v KD I do think KD being top 2 in mvp voting 3 times before Steph really came out as a star is a major factor on rating KD higher as of right now. That's significant and I don't really see the star/sidekick stuff as that relevant just as I tend to judge Kobe for his level of play in the 00-04 years more so than whether I see him as a sidekick to Shaq.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #21 

Post#97 » by BigBoss23 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:33 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
Cavsfansince84 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
What's fascinating there is that '16-17 Curry appears to be the all-time record holder in terms of raw +/-.

In '16-17 Curry had a +1257 while Durant had a +888, yet despite this and the fact that Durant ring-chased his way to the Warriors, people think Durant carried Curry to the title.

Re: 85-95 competition. It's fine to bring that up, it's not like Curry hasn't put up seasons that would have put him in the Top 2 in a bunch of those years. Barkley was where he was because his performance was generally pretty inconsistent. He took a lot of possessions off on defense, and his impact from year to year really seemed shaped by his mood.

I'll mention another raw +/- stat I like - and as always, I know these stats are not the end-all, be-all, but they are concrete stuff everyone can understand that few are aware of:

We know that Barkley either led his team in +/- 6 or 7 times (we're missing '92-93 which is a likely yes), despite as you say, typically being seen as by far the most talented player on his roster.

We know that Curry has already led his team in +/- 6 times, which includes 3 times topping Durant.

We also know that Durant has only led his team in +/- 3 times total, but given that he played with Harden, Westbrook, and Curry, quite frankly I don't think it's any kind of a given that Barkley is more accomplished along these lines than Durant is.


My opinion on the +/- stat is that I would guess a lot of that came in time where KD missed games. Steph played over 600 more minutes than KD that year. I also think the whole 'KD carried Steph' narrative is there but not really a popular one. If I had to guess I think its more widely viewed that Steph was the primary player on those teams with maybe 10-20% saying it was KD and probably half saying it was even. My other thing is that I'm not that sold on the whole idea of +/- as a great metric. Its ok. Its just one of many that I think should be used though. There's a lot of stuff that can play into it. I also did a post above on how I view KD from 17-19 which gives my views on why I think KD is slightly underrated now.


Okay, but let's note something here:

In '16-17, Durant played 2592 minutes total, and this led him to be 4th on the team (and in the league) in +/-.
In '17-18, Curry played 2172 minutes total, and this led him to be 1st on the team (and in the league) in +/-.

This goes along with what has already been mentioned that in '16-17 the team played better with Curry on the court than Durant despite the fact Durant got the benefit of playing a considerably larger fraction of his minutes with Curry than vice versa.

Re: KD carried Steph narrative not really popular. I mean, KD may get the vote here over Curry. If you thought Curry was the more valuable player on that team, I honestly don't know how you could possibly vote for KD over Curry. How on earth can you side with a guy who gave up on his own team only to be a sidekick on an existing champion over the guy he was the sidekick too? I really have to conclude that you buy that Durant was just always the better player (not a sidekick in any way, shape, or form) and just happened to not have more team success than Curry before or during their time together.

Re: A lot of stuff can play into +/-. There are myriad more reliable stats based on +/- that you can look at. If you find something that's more reliable that in this family of stats that favors Durant you should mention it. Short of that, I'd say you just have to accept that based on whose presence correlates more with winning basketball, it's Curry, and you have to make pro-Durant arguments based on some notion of playoff superiority.


I think you are really getting way too hung up on narratives tbh. No sidekick does the playoff damage KD did from 2017-2019, and very few players on this planet could have stepped in with the type of playoff production he did during his tenure there. When shots weren't falling who did the Warriors turn to? It was KD.

Leaving Westbrook was the best decision he ever made. If you want to base your argument on him "quitting" after giving OKC almost a decade's worth of service, then I don't know what to tell you.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #21 

Post#98 » by Cavsfansince84 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:38 pm

BigBoss23 wrote:
I think you are really getting way too hung up on narratives tbh. No sidekick does the playoff damage KD did from 2017-2019, and very few players on this planet could have stepped in with the type of playoff production he did during his tenure there. When shots weren't falling who did the Warriors turn to? It was KD.

Leaving Westbrook was the best decision he ever made. If you want to base your argument on him "quitting" after giving OKC almost a decade's worth of service, then I don't know what to tell you.


I agree. KD needed to get out of Okc though I think going to gs wasn't the right move but he felt like rings were what he needed and didn't want to be a leader so went there. The whole sidekick narrative has always been overblown on message boards just as some people were trying to make LeBron out as Wade's side kick back in 2011 and 2012. Just as I see Draymond as the real leader of the gs teams but I'm not sure its really worth bringing up. His overall role on those teams has really been overshadowed by the whole Steph/KD debate.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #21 

Post#99 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:40 pm

Cavsfansince84 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
Okay, but let's note something here:

In '16-17, Durant played 2592 minutes total, and this led him to be 4th on the team (and in the league) in +/-.
In '17-18, Curry played 2172 minutes total, and this led him to be 1st on the team (and in the league) in +/-.

This goes along with what has already been mentioned that in '16-17 the team played better with Curry on the court than Durant despite the fact Durant got the benefit of playing a considerably larger fraction of his minutes with Curry than vice versa.

Re: KD carried Steph narrative not really popular. I mean, KD may get the vote here over Curry. If you thought Curry was the more valuable player on that team, I honestly don't know how you could possibly vote for KD over Curry. How on earth can you side with a guy who gave up on his own team only to be a sidekick on an existing champion over the guy he was the sidekick too? I really have to conclude that you buy that Durant was just always the better player (not a sidekick in any way, shape, or form) and just happened to not have more team success than Curry before or during their time together.

Re: A lot of stuff can play into +/-. There are myriad more reliable stats based on +/- that you can look at. If you find something that's more reliable that in this family of stats that favors Durant you should mention it. Short of that, I'd say you just have to accept that based on whose presence correlates more with winning basketball, it's Curry, and you have to make pro-Durant arguments based on some notion of playoff superiority.


In all honesty I've heard all of these sorts of stats before so I'm familiar with this line of thinking with regards to the Curry/KD dynamic on the court. I'm not entirely sold on that being a deciding factor as to who the better player is though because I think those teams were built around Steph. Had Steph gone to Okc for instance and played with WB and KD it might not play out that way. I do think KD is more resilient to some degree in the playoffs. I'm sort of over debating KD v Steph though. I had another point I really wanted to make but now I'm having trouble remembering it. As I said above though, I think KD was primed to have some great seasons in that 17-19 range which may be viewed as his best seasons had he not gone to gs.

Though regarding Steph v KD I do think KD being top 2 in mvp voting 3 times before Steph really came out as a star is a major factor on rating KD higher as of right now. That's significant and I don't really see the star/sidekick stuff as that relevant just as I tend to judge Kobe for his level of play in the 00-04 years more so than whether I see him as a sidekick to Shaq.


I'll try not to belabor the point further, but I will say this:

1. I do understand perspectives that prefer Durant over Curry.

2. Portability/scalability is a thing and Curry's game was better suited to thriving to other scoring talent than Durant because of his off-ball impact and generally superior BBIQ.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #21 

Post#100 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:59 pm

BigBoss23 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
Cavsfansince84 wrote:
My opinion on the +/- stat is that I would guess a lot of that came in time where KD missed games. Steph played over 600 more minutes than KD that year. I also think the whole 'KD carried Steph' narrative is there but not really a popular one. If I had to guess I think its more widely viewed that Steph was the primary player on those teams with maybe 10-20% saying it was KD and probably half saying it was even. My other thing is that I'm not that sold on the whole idea of +/- as a great metric. Its ok. Its just one of many that I think should be used though. There's a lot of stuff that can play into it. I also did a post above on how I view KD from 17-19 which gives my views on why I think KD is slightly underrated now.


Okay, but let's note something here:

In '16-17, Durant played 2592 minutes total, and this led him to be 4th on the team (and in the league) in +/-.
In '17-18, Curry played 2172 minutes total, and this led him to be 1st on the team (and in the league) in +/-.

This goes along with what has already been mentioned that in '16-17 the team played better with Curry on the court than Durant despite the fact Durant got the benefit of playing a considerably larger fraction of his minutes with Curry than vice versa.

Re: KD carried Steph narrative not really popular. I mean, KD may get the vote here over Curry. If you thought Curry was the more valuable player on that team, I honestly don't know how you could possibly vote for KD over Curry. How on earth can you side with a guy who gave up on his own team only to be a sidekick on an existing champion over the guy he was the sidekick too? I really have to conclude that you buy that Durant was just always the better player (not a sidekick in any way, shape, or form) and just happened to not have more team success than Curry before or during their time together.

Re: A lot of stuff can play into +/-. There are myriad more reliable stats based on +/- that you can look at. If you find something that's more reliable that in this family of stats that favors Durant you should mention it. Short of that, I'd say you just have to accept that based on whose presence correlates more with winning basketball, it's Curry, and you have to make pro-Durant arguments based on some notion of playoff superiority.


I think you are really getting way too hung up on narratives tbh. No sidekick does the playoff damage KD did from 2017-2019, and very few players on this planet could have stepped in with the type of playoff production he did during his tenure there. When shots weren't falling who did the Warriors turn to? It was KD.

Leaving Westbrook was the best decision he ever made. If you want to base your argument on him "quitting" after giving OKC almost a decade's worth of service, then I don't know what to tell you.


I think you're getting too hung up on labels if you read all that and are focused on whether or not Durant fits the definition of a "sidekick". Who do you think was more valuable for those Warriors, Durant or Curry? If you say Durant, we've got a ton of +/- to show you. If you say Curry, and still vote for Durant, what are you doing?

Re: decade's worth of service. I'll say first that I hold Durant's behavior in GS FAR more against him than anything pertaining to OKC. His behavior in GS is utterly damning to me and I really think everyone just needs to imagine what it would be like if these were your co-workers if they don't understand why I see it as a big deal.

What about leaving OKC? It's significant as follows:

1. OKC was the team built around Durant, GS was the team built around Curry. The team built around Curry end up better. Why was that? Forget about answer luck or blame for a second, just ask why that was.

2. It had to do with OKC choosing to give Westbrook as much control as they did, which to me was a mistake on the part of Presti/Brooks for which Durant should not be blamed.

3. However, Durant had literally ALL of the power and was clearly gritting his teeth as Westbrook made bone-headed plays and he himself often got rendered passive, and what did he do? He tried to be the choir boy. He mocked others who changed teams.

4. Then the facade started slipping. He started yelling at the media in a bizarre fashion. He did this especially whenever anyone asked "So does it bother you that your team's offense is basically just you & Russ winging it?" He kept insisting everything was fine, and the Thunder kept building around Westbrook-Durant without forcing the offense to run in a more professional way.

5. And then poof, Durant left. He went from saying everything was fine for years, to leaving and saying things to indicate that no, in fact, not everything was fine, at a point when it was too late for his original team to save the situation. Blame the front office and coach for not doing a better job to be sure, but KD was telling them everything was fine. How can a front office tell Westbrook "Listen to the coach or else" when Durant is telling them and the world that he's happy playing with Westbrook?

That is much of the how and the why as to why the Thunder ended up splintering apart. Yes they shouldn't have let Harden go, but the fundamental issue involved Westbrook-Durant's messy relationship.

We get frustrated when LeBron tells his franchises what to do, but at this point as we look back, LeBron's been pretty consistent. He doesn't hesitate to say when he's concerned for his team's future, and he leaves when he decides that future isn't one he wants to be part of. LeBron would not have tolerated a teammate improvising with mediocre BBIQ like Westbrook was, and Westbrook would have either been re-shaped into something else, or he'd be gone, or eventually LeBron would be gone, but it wouldn't be a mystery.

Of course as I say this, there's the matter that these guys play different roles.

LeBron wouldn't have to worry about Westbrook being like this in the first place because you'd never try to make Westbrook an on-ball player if LeBron was already on the team.

Durant from the very beginning has been an individually focused player whose main form of basketball expertise involves a one-on-one chess match. Because of this along with his height, he's needed to play with guards who are the primary ballhandlers, and he's at their mercy to some degree.

What all this means is that the comparison of player circumstances isn't an apple-to-apple comparison, and so one guy may deal with a particular teammate better for reasons that have nothing to do with personality or emotional maturity but simply better basketball fit. Nevertheless, Durant's been in the situations he's been in, and to my mind he should be seen as one of the more problematic-to-culture superstars we've had based on the whirling, escalating tornado of neuroticism he has going on in his brain.
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