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2020 free agent targets and draft picks

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Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#1081 » by Wizenheimer » Tue Nov 24, 2020 5:36 pm

DeBlazerRiddem wrote:Evan Turner is the only kind-of "floor general" type player I remember Olshey signing, and that was a massive failure because he wasn't real good at that. Who knows maybe that put him off the idea while the eventual success of guys like Napier and Curry reaffirmed his belief, but I'm not talking about a guy who will get Lillard off-ball but a guy who can play spot minutes with the bench and get the most out of the other bench positions.


I think Olshey realized in the season between Batum and Turner the Blazers needed somebody...anybody...who could run the offense a little. Batum was pretty good at that, especially any side PnR sets. But one thing that made Batum good at the role was his extremely low usage and the fact he rarely held the ball more than a couple of seconds. Turner had a much higher usage rate and he held the ball for lots of seconds. He was a bit of a ball stopper, especially when he got into backing-his-man-down mode. Another critical difference was that Batum was decent, most time, at catch-&-shoot and spot-up. Turner was terrible at both

Olshey did sign Mo Williams and Steve Blake in successive years. Those guys were more like traditional PG's, especially Blake. But he has stubbornly resisted adding any real backup floor general since CJ was elevated to a starting role. That's not a coincidence. A backup PG like a Rondo, or a Mo Williams, or a George Hill would not only challenge CJ for all those backup PG minutes, but for some Dame-on-the-floor minutes as well

GEE wrote:For those that don't believe this is a massively upgraded roster, and a true contender... :roll: I bet you own at least one Laker jersey.


It's a major upgrade over last year's roster for sure. It may not be a significant upgrade over the 2018-19 roster though. On paper, this year's team probably has the best depth of any squad in the Olsey/Stotts tenure. But depth of role players don't make for a contender. It's not 4-10 in the rotation that makes a contender, it's 1-3, and that hasn't changed.

Portland's Achilles heel that has kept them on the Pretender treadmill is they have no answer when a good opponent sells out there defense to stop Dame. It's killed them in the playoffs, year after year, when they meet real contenders. I don't see any answer for that on this year's team. Covington will be the best wing they've had since Matthews/Batum, but that won't likely solve the riddle. And while Jones plays good defense, his few offensive strengths, transition/back door cut/lobs are things Portland has never done under Stotts, even at a mediocre level.

I'm anxious to see this year's team perform, but so far, they are paper tigers. Calling them a "true contender" before seeing a half season of them competing is way premature

dunlop212 wrote:If Anthony takes the step back one reasonably expects for a player in his late 30s (especially a guy who was a matador defender in his prime), Hood comes back a lesser player, and Little and Simons don't become legit NBA players, this is a pretty unimpressive bench.


you forgot to add if Zach misses 30 games and the often injured Giles gets injured again

and if Stotts can figure out how to involve Jones in the offense. We've seen the the poor shooting perimeter wings be square-pegs-in-round-holes in the Stotts offense over and over. That's an old movie

the team has a chance to be as good as the 2013-14 and 2018-19 blazer squads, but a lot will have to break right
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Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#1082 » by BlazersBroncos » Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:48 pm

It's a major upgrade over last year's roster for sure. It may not be a significant upgrade over the 2018-19 roster though. On paper, this year's team probably has the best depth of any squad in the Olsey/Stotts tenure. But depth of role players don't make for a contender. It's not 4-10 in the rotation that makes a contender, it's 1-3, and that hasn't changed.

Portland's Achilles heel that has kept them on the Pretender treadmill is they have no answer when a good opponent sells out there defense to stop Dame. It's killed them in the playoffs, year after year, when they meet real contenders. I don't see any answer for that on this year's team. Covington will be the best wing they've had since Matthews/Batum, but that won't likely solve the riddle. And while Jones plays good defense, his few offensive strengths, transition/back door cut/lobs are things Portland has never done under Stotts, even at a mediocre level.

I'm anxious to see this year's team perform, but so far, they are paper tigers. Calling them a "true contender" before seeing a half season of them competing is way premature


Amen. We are better than last season, but we continue to quickly forget how deep the 18/19 team was. Especially once Kanter and Hood came on board. Even with this offseason's additions, I dont think we are much better than the below:

G - Damian Lillard / Evan Turner / Anfernee Simons
G - CJ McCollum / Seth Curry / Gary Trent Jr
F - Mo Harkless / Rodney Hood / Jake Layman
F - Al-Fariq Aminu / Jake Layman / Zach Collins
C - Jusuf Nurkic / Enes Kanter / Meyers Leonard

That team has a similar talent level to what we can now offer in 20/21, arguably a little better or worse depending on your mood. The most important thing is that our 1-3 are still the same, and that is to say a 1-3 that isnt championship caliber. Even with adding RoCo, its arguable that our defensive talent is better than 18/19. I dont think RoCo + DJJ is a better defensive duo than Mo + Aminu. Specifically using any measurable defensive advanced metric Harkless is actually a better defender than RoCo, where he isnt close is actually on offense and the boards.

If we make a championship jump it wont be because we improved 4-10. It will be due to Nurkic taking a huge step forward and CJ finally figuring out a way to get to the FT stripe IMO.

(Since his elite 16/17 season CJ has gotten worse and worse at attacking the basket, averaging only 2.6 FT last season. Thats totally unacceptable for a guy supposedly our #2 option. For comparison, his FTR of .136 last season is worse than ANY year of JJ Redick's career. Hell, Korver only managed 5/17 seasons worse than .136. These are guys who are seen as pure shooting specialist, and they still get to the line at a better or similar rate)
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Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#1083 » by mojomarc » Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:52 pm

I'm off the site for months, and here is Wiz as a voice of reason? Has the whole world gone Topsy-Turvy???? :D

Fully agree Wiz. I do think we're a bit better, but I don't think our defense is anywhere near good enough, even with improved wing defense, to really contend. But a 50-55 win team with potential to be 2nd or 3rd team in the West is possible, but sort of what I think is top end. More likely we're looking at 4th or 5th seed I'm guessing as a realistic top end.
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Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#1084 » by d-train » Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:21 pm

50-55 out of 72 is great. Typically, you don't win like that in tough WC unless you are a contender.
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Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#1085 » by d-train » Tue Nov 24, 2020 9:30 pm

Blazers will take the next step as a team if Lillard does a better job utilizing his teammates against the defense that all good NBA teams play.
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Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#1086 » by skywalker33 » Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:17 pm

Just wanted to drop over and say I think you guys had a nice off-season, I think you'll see some good results in the season, perhaps even win the Division.
Texas Chuck wrote:I'd like to see Utah, and Denver lose


Exactly as I've been saying all along !!
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Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#1087 » by Sinobas » Tue Nov 24, 2020 11:30 pm

I've felt like we've had some pretty good backup PGs but we never keep them. I liked Maynor, Baldwin, Napier.

Napier is still available, as is Isaiah Thomas. They are fun players, can score off the bench. Thomas was a former all star and can shoot.
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Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#1088 » by Matt800 » Wed Nov 25, 2020 12:01 am

Wizenheimer wrote:the team has a chance to be as good as the 2013-14 and 2018-19 blazer squads, but a lot will have to break right


I agree. They need a lot of things to go right. At least several of:
Hood being as good as he was early last season
Trent Jr being as good or better as late last season
Little making a similar improvement to what Trent Jr did last season
Collins or Giles being consistently helpful
Nurkic playing as well as he has and ideally being a good 3 point shooter
DJJ being a clearly productive player somehow. Ideally learning how to shoot 3s
Core guys staying healthy
Covington being able to shoot 3s well
Simons making a Trent Jr type improvement in being able to hit 3s and defend.
Kanter playing as good or better than he did last time he was a Blazer
The rookie somehow being really good
Carmelo shooting 3s at a high percentage and playing adequate enough defense

They are definitely in a better position than with their roster last preseason. Also I really like that Trent Jr was the break out guy last season. I don't think anyone expected that, so it gives some hope that any of the guys could do the same. Little was interviewed saying he intends to get a role through defense and shooting like Trent Jr did, so hopefully he can play well enough to do that.
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Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#1089 » by Epicurus » Wed Nov 25, 2020 12:47 am

nurk making a much higher percentage from 0-10 feet. That alone would 4-8 more pts pergame. I prefer that to seven footer's threes.
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Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#1090 » by skoharry » Wed Nov 25, 2020 12:50 am

If simons can improve his passing and playmaking....then great. But it would still be nice to have another PG on the roster that can come in and do what needs doing. Like I said, it's not going to be one of those guys who are looking to and should play 15-20 minutes.....but I'll take knight, mudiay, or GP3. Cheap options
Defense and rebounding wins games
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Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#1091 » by BlazersBroncos » Wed Nov 25, 2020 1:58 am

I prefer a real backup PG as well but I dont think this roster is going to have minutes for Simons or some Vet Min guy at PG. I think CJ has to be the guy there because we just have way too many guards and forwards needing minutes and Simons, barring a huge leap in production, is clearly not as good as them. It is pretty alarming how poor our SG and Forward rotation in general is at creating for others. We addressed defense and athleticism to a point, but playmaking will be hard to come by. Especially on the move, as Nurkic and to a lesser extent Melo and Kanter are good at passing from a set position / 3 point stance, they are not especially good when moving / dribbling the ball. Its basically only Dame and CJ who should project to be above average in that regard next season (And CJ is arguably only average there).

A funny stat I saw from last year:

Simons - 20.7mpg / 1.4apg
Labissiere - 17.2mp / 1.3apg

lol
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Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#1092 » by d-train » Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:46 am

Here's our cap status. We have 14 signed players and $617,559 left under the tax threshold.

31,626,953 Damian Lillard
29,354,152 C.J. McCollum
14,138,889 Jusuf Nurkic
12,138,345 Robert Covington
10,047,450 Rodney Hood
9,268,293 Derrick Jones Jr.
5,406,255 Zach Collins
5,005,350 Enes Kanter
2,252,040 Anfernee Simons
2,210,640 Nassir Little
1,663,861 Gary Trent Jr.
1,620,564 Carmelo Anthony
1,678,854 Harry Giles
898,310 CJ Elleby
_________________________________

127,251,666 Active roster
4,757,775 Dead money
132,009,441 Total salary
132,627,000 Luxury tax threshold $617,559
138,928,000 Apron (hard cap) $6,918,559
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Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#1093 » by DaVoiceMaster » Wed Nov 25, 2020 2:17 pm

I'd like to see the offense run through Nurkic in the high post more. Run Lillard and CJ off screens and have Jones cut to the basket. Does Covington have a post up game? Would like to see some switches with the guards and Covington down in the post.
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Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#1094 » by BlazersBroncos » Wed Nov 25, 2020 4:14 pm

Does Covington have a post up game? Would like to see some switches with the guards and Covington down in the post.


From what I have seen he looks like a 3PT kickout guy who can cut and get garbage buckets.

An underrated aspect of his game is rebounding. We sucked at rebounding last year and he is good for about 5.5-6 per game. More if playing PF (Averaged 8 once moved full time to PF in HOU).
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Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#1095 » by mojomarc » Wed Nov 25, 2020 4:15 pm

d-train wrote:50-55 out of 72 is great. Typically, you don't win like that in tough WC unless you are a contender.


I'm comparing against an 82 game schedule
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Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#1096 » by HoopsFanAZ » Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:22 pm

The negative and the positive views are equally possible before the first jump ball (actually, the first 20 games for evaluation).

1. Health. Nurkic. Then Collins and Hood. Last season was great to learn who stepped up in the absence of 3 starters. A healthy Nurkic throughout the season and playoffs changes everything. Kanter is a known quantity, and it is LIKELY he will be active Kanter ... and helping to keep Nurkic upright. Kanter in the WCF had one and a half arms ... the shoulder the media forgets about.

2. Health. Collins physical development, D, and skills work ... breakout year ... health. Giles is about health. Potential. The return of Hoodie (and health) and 3s and his Turner-like post-ups in the paint and at the baseline without the pounding the rock is beyond what Aminu and Harkless could do. Even CJ’s back and Lillard as iron man.

3. Defense is 90% mental. The other half is physical and effort. (Pardon the Yogi theft.)
ROCO (with health from Collins and Hoodie) becomes the glue guy starter filling holes. Jones Jr off the bench is an energizer. GTJ an energizer and eventual starter. Collins gets red@** on guys. 2018 was not that kind of team with consistency. What they are, not what they may become.

No, for me this team’s ceiling isn’t about other teams ... which always makes a difference. Or even about the hoped for development of players. It’s about health and rotations and health. YES, I’d like a trade of CJ for better size and D. Short of that, he’s got GTJ and taller guys to challenge him.
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Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#1097 » by d-train » Wed Nov 25, 2020 8:15 pm

Blazers sign Keljin Blevins to 2-way contract
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Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#1098 » by d-train » Wed Nov 25, 2020 8:22 pm

Could be case of nepotism. He is Lillard's cousin.
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Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#1099 » by HoopsFanAZ » Wed Nov 25, 2020 8:48 pm

Could be good genes and attitude.
:D
... and/or a touch of nepotism. A quick search told me he was on their summer league and camp rosters.
A known quantity practicing amongst some NBA players. 6'6 200. Doesn't count against the cap. Can play in
50 games. Can stay with the team for the whole season. [Nice rule changes for this year.]

Good luck to him. He'll get good coaching and players who will both help him and challenge him.
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Re: 2020 free agent targets and draft picks 

Post#1100 » by BlazersBroncos » Wed Nov 25, 2020 9:11 pm

Dame has showed enough loyalty that a bit of nepotism for a 2-way contract player is fine with me. Never seen Blevins but his raw stats sure are not too impressive.

Looks like we signed him last year as well? BB-Ref shows he was on the team from SEP-OCT 2019.

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