Political Roundtable Part XXIX

[Zonkerbl]

If PA and MI certify their vote counts today, Trump's goose is cooked. That's what the Senate GOP is referring to - if Trump wants to try to allege fraud, he has to challenge the vote counts. So far he has failed spectacularly and NPR at least is reporting that MI and PA will certify their vote counts today. But if there are Republicans on the canvassing boards that have to approve the certification there is one last chance for shenanigans - Republican plan is to delay certification in those two states and then use lack of certification as an excuse to appoint their own panel of electors. If they try that you can start shouting "coup" from the rooftops. But the governors in both of those states are democratic and I would assume they would veto any attempt to appoint Republican cherry picked electors, so it would have to go the State Supreme Court which I imagine would say, well, you had your chance at a legislated solution and failed, so the prevailing law is what matters and that law says you certify the vote and then select electors based off of the result of that vote, and given you don't have enough fraud/election shenanigans evidence to overturn the vote you should certify and quit screwing around.

Well, it's all moot if NPR is right and PA and MI certify today. Then all plausible legal options are exhausted and Trump should concede. Actually if PA certifies today it's moot regardless of what happens in Michigan.

[Zonkerbl]

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Anyone on here consider themselves an expert on Arab Israeli relations?

[doclinkin]

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Anyone on here consider themselves an expert on Arab Israeli relations?

Let's ask Deni Avdija, since his dad is muslim and mom is Israeli, right?

[Zonkerbl]

Here's an interesting data source:

http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm

Look at violent crimes 100,000 people 1960-2019. There was an explosion in violent crime in that series that peaked in the mid nineties and has been declining ever since.

Would love to unpack that. How much is increasingly racist persecution of black people vs. actual crimes committed? How much is correlated with putting more cops on the beat/building more jails? The more cops you have, the more quotas for violent crime convictions you have. Or was it all completely driven by exposing kids to lead in gasoline, which stopped in the late seventies (and it is a huge surprise, therefore, that violent crime peaked when those kids grew up in the mid nineties?). A lot of the increase in incarceration rates happened in the aughts, after violent crime began its decades long downward trend. So I doubt you can make a statistical case that increasing incarceration reduced crime, but I suppose you could investigate that as well. You'd need some more disaggregated data and some creative number crunching. I bet those studies are out there.

[edit: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=incarceration+rates+and+violent+crime&hl=en&as_sdt=0&as_vis=1&oi=scholart]

https://www.prisonlegalnews.org/media/publications/Criminology%20-%20Historical%20Contingencies%20Explaining%20Mass%20Incarceration%202015.pdf

Just reading this paper's abstract I would want them to include economic inequality as an explainer of crime first, before using crime as an explainer of incarceration rates. Looks like we are creating a system that widens inequality, and then punishes people for being poor, thus making sure they and their families stay poor in the future and grow up to commit violent crimes. Mitigated somewhat by not exposing kids in inner cities to as much lead from gasoline fumes.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Here's an interesting data source:

http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm

Look at violent crimes 100,000 people 1960-2019. There was an explosion in violent crime in that series that peaked in the mid nineties and has been declining ever since.

Would love to unpack that. How much is increasingly racist persecution of black people vs. actual crimes committed? How much is correlated with putting more cops on the beat/building more jails? The more cops you have, the more quotas for violent crime convictions you have. Or was it all completely driven by exposing kids to lead in gasoline, which stopped in the late seventies (and it is a huge surprise, therefore, that violent crime peaked when those kids grew up in the mid nineties?). A lot of the increase in incarceration rates happened in the aughts, after violent crime began its decades long downward trend. So I doubt you can make a statistical case that increasing incarceration reduced crime, but I suppose you could investigate that as well. You'd need some more disaggregated data and some creative number crunching. I bet those studies are out there.

[edit: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=incarceration+rates+and+violent+crime&hl=en&as_sdt=0&as_vis=1&oi=scholart]

https://www.prisonlegalnews.org/media/publications/Criminology%20-%20Historical%20Contingencies%20Explaining%20Mass%20Incarceration%202015.pdf

Just reading this paper's abstract I would want them to include economic inequality as an explainer of crime first, before using crime as an explainer of incarceration rates. Looks like we are creating a system that widens inequality, and then punishes people for being poor, thus making sure they and their families stay poor in the future and grow up to commit violent crimes. Mitigated somewhat by not exposing kids in inner cities to as much lead from gasoline fumes.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead–crime_hypothesis

Inequality is one thing and is a big deal. The environment all too often gets ignored.

Sent from my SM-G970W using RealGM mobile app

[Zonkerbl]

I hate to be that "all crime is caused by lead" guy. But lead exposure, particularly to kids in inner cities, is obviously a major contributing factor to the trends in violent crime we saw over the last several decades.

EPA has models where they measure how far you are from "point sources" of emissions. I'm sure they could include major urban areas as "point sources" and derive correlation of lead exposure with lagged violent crimes with that. Of course they'd need a regulation that forces them to. Come to think of it, lead is one of the criteria pollutants, and my work on the ambient air quality standards for lead is where I got exposed to the idea in the first place. That stuff used to be all public record before Trump trashed the EPA's website, but I'm sure it's still floating around somewhere.

Another disaster Biden will have to clean up, restoring EPA's website and their regulatory authority in general.

[Zonkerbl]

Michigan certifies its votes. That's a wrap, I think. Vote was 3-0, the one Trump cultist abstained, probably because it would've been a felony to vote not to certify without any evidence of fraud.

[Zonkerbl]

Yep, that's a wrap. Gsa admin releases funds to begin Biden transition.

[Ruzious]

And this is why it's so hard to see the US ever getting unf'd by Trump's presidency. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/most-republicans-in-new-poll-say-theyd-vote-for-trump-in-2024/ar-BB1bjm8l?li=BBnb7Kz

[doclinkin]

Lock him up.

[Ruzious]

Former CIA Director John Brennan with the world's best sentence on Trump:

I leave his fate to our judicial system, his infamy to history, & his legacy to a trash heap.

Here's the whole thing:

"For four years, I spoke out vigorously against Donald Trump's craven dishonesty, corrupt pursuit of personal interests, & trampling of our democratic principles," Brennan, who served under the Obama administration, began in a series of tweets. "After serving over three decades in national security, I felt compelled to condemn Trump's depravity & incompetence."

"My outspokenness has brought criticism, retaliation by the Trump Administration, & threats by those blinded by Trump's demagoguery," he continued. "Yes, it is unusual for a former CIA Director to speak out, but when an autocrat descended upon the White House, silence was not an option for me."

"I now plan to ignore Trump," Brennan added. "I leave his fate to our judicial system, his infamy to history, & his legacy to a trash heap."

[pcbothwel]

Former CIA Director John Brennan with the world's best sentence on Trump:

I leave his fate to our judicial system, his infamy to history, & his legacy to a trash heap.

Here's the whole thing:

"For four years, I spoke out vigorously against Donald Trump's craven dishonesty, corrupt pursuit of personal interests, & trampling of our democratic principles," Brennan, who served under the Obama administration, began in a series of tweets. "After serving over three decades in national security, I felt compelled to condemn Trump's depravity & incompetence."

"My outspokenness has brought criticism, retaliation by the Trump Administration, & threats by those blinded by Trump's demagoguery," he continued. "Yes, it is unusual for a former CIA Director to speak out, but when an autocrat descended upon the White House, silence was not an option for me."

"I now plan to ignore Trump," Brennan added. "I leave his fate to our judicial system, his infamy to history, & his legacy to a trash heap."

Nobody should care what John Brennan thinks or says... say what you will about Trump, but Brennan should be the one worried about his "Fate" with the judicial system and his "Legacy"

[Zonkerbl]

PA certified. Fwiw.

[Wizardspride]

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[Zonkerbl]

One thing I miss about Nate being gone is we had a big argument about hispanics while Obama was President. I said Republicans should go after hispanics because they are religious conservatives and if they dropped the xenophobia and got hispanics on their side they would never lose an election again, ever

Nate's response was Republicans tried to reach out to hispanics and never got any traction

Given that hispanics voting Republican is the main reason Florida and Texas didn't go blue this year, would like to hear his thoughts on it now

Also there's this:

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[Zonkerbl]

white males are victims... of being manipulated by Republicans into voting against their own interests. All the suffering non college educated white males are suffering right now are a result of decades of very intentional Republican policies to hurt black people, and lukewarm attempts by Dems to stop them, which btw also hurts non college educated white people

[Ruzious]

PA certified. Fwiw.

Georgia is counting their votes for the THIRD time.

Edit - Speaking of Georgia, why is their Sec of State surprised? https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/georgia-secretary-of-state-says-hes-a-trump-voter-now-being-thrown-under-the-bus-by-him/ar-BB1blNEb?li=BBnb7Kz

[Wizardspride]

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[Fairview4Life]

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It's complicated!
https://www.emptywheel.net/2020/11/25/trump-prepares-to-pardon-an-undisclosed-agent-of-turkey-as-well-as-a-thanksgiving-bird/

[Wizardspride]

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