Are we better than the Hawks?

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

The expectations for the Nets and the Hawks are a bit crazy this year, even in the east.

[everdiso]

The raps were 2nd in the league last year. With a crapton of injuries.

Replacing their 6th and 7th best players with decent replacements won't drop them down much.

I'd argue that we've replaced our T-3rd and 7th best players - who happen to play in the same position.

These ratings are according to my calculations:

84 Lowry
83 Siakam
82 VanVleet = Ibaka
80 Powell
77 Anunoby
75 Gasol
74 Davis = RHJ = Boucher
73 Thomas
71 McCaw
69 Johnson

But yeah, the Hawks are still too young to finish better than us, IMO.

nice calculations!


here are some other calculations. not my own tho!

BPM VORP

1. Lowry 2.8
2. VanV 2.3
3. Siakam 2.0
4. Anunoby 1.7
5. Powell 1.5
6. Gasol 1.1
7. Ibaka 0.8
8. Davis 0.8
9. Boucher 0.8
10. RHJ 0.6
11. Thomas 0.3
12. McCaw 0.0

RPM WINS

1. Lowry 11.1
2. Siakam 8.3
3. VanV 5.7
4. Powell 4.6
5. Gasol 3.6
6. Anunoby 2.9
7. Ibaka 2.9
8. Davis 2.8
9. Boucher 1.8
10. RHJ 1.6
11. Thomas 0.8
12. McCaw -1.2

RAPTOR WAR

1. Lowry 9.9
2. VanV 6.7
3. Anunoby 4.6
4. Siakam 4.5
5. RHJ 3.2
6. Davis 3.1
7. Gasol 3.1
8. Boucher 2.8
9. Powell 2.7
10. Ibaka 2.3
11. Thomas 1.1
12. McCaw -0.6


Average Rank

1. Lowry 1.0
2. VanV 2.3
3. Siakam 3.0
4. Anunoby 4.3
5. Powell 6.0
6. Gasol 6.0
7. Davis 7.3
8. Ibaka 8.0
9. RHJ 8.3
10. Boucher 8.7
11. Thomas 11.0
12. McCaw 12.0

[PhilBlackson]

In this moment, yes!

Our team already knows how to win. They know the level of effort, focus, attention to detail, consistency and energy ir takes to be one of the best teams in the league...the Hawks are just going to start learning all of that this season.

Now if you're projecting 2-3 years out based on the cores of each team then I favor the Hawks as it stands in this moment. Trae, Bogdan, Reddish/Hunter, Collins and Okongwu can really be a helluva starting line-up once they develop that honestly could be a top 3 team in the East. Whereas FVV, OG, Siakam are pretty much in their primes and imo top out as a middle of the pack squad (although personally I think Jalen Harris could surprise but we'll see). But right NOW, we're better unless ATL develops much faster than expected.

[KidDynamit]

The Hawks?

Like Biden would say.

Cmon man..

[douggood]

In this moment, yes!

Our team already knows how to win. They know the level of effort, focus, attention to detail, consistency and energy ir takes to be one of the best teams in the league...the Hawks are just going to start learning all of that this season.

Now if you're projecting 2-3 years out based on the cores of each team then I favor the Hawks as it stands in this moment. Trae, Bogdan, Reddish/Hunter, Collins and Okongwu can really be a helluva starting line-up once they develop that honestly could be a top 3 team in the East. Whereas FVV, OG, Siakam are pretty much in their primes and imo top out as a middle of the pack squad (although personally I think Jalen Harris could surprise but we'll see). But right NOW, we're better unless ATL develops much faster than expected.

the thing with atlanta, i dont see an organizational plan, every move is a reactionary move.
reminds me of the BC era, oh we have a hole at SG, trade a C to fill it, oh no hole at C trade a PF to fill that, on and on.

that gm travis schlenk, i cant point to a single move, and say he won that trade/transaction.
i dont have confidence in the coaching/organization to become a consistent winner.

there is always a new shiny thing we have been saying will have a better future than us for the last 6 years, so far none has come true, and for sure atlanta is not going to be the one that breaks that streak.

[JN]

Troll

[OakleyDokely]

The Hawks will be lucky to be a .500 team.

They were 27 games under 500 last year.

That's a very difficult jump to make.

[ruckus]

The Hawks will be lucky to be a .500 team.

They were 27 games under 500 last year.

That's a very difficult jump to make.

The Hawks did get better, no doubt, but they have a long way to go. I do foresee the Raps taking a bit of a step back this year but there is no way that the Hawks leap frog them.

[Rapsalot]

Yes we are a 4-7 seed playoff team and they will fight to make it to 8.

[nabbs]

The main problem with the Hawks aside from the obvious Trae Young is the worst defender in the league via every advanced metric that exists.


However on a more macro level, here is the problem:

The Hawks can put out amazing offensive and defensive lineups


Can they marry them though? What is their ideal two way closing lineup?

It all depends on the growth of Reddish, Hunter and Huerter... their best potential two way guys imo

[everdiso]

All that being said, the Hawks should be hugely improved this year. Should be fun to watch.

Not only did they add some legit quality, but maybe even more importantly they can now really crank down the minutes of some guys who were in way over their heads last year - Huerter, Hunter, Reddish - who should never have been getting as many minutes as they did.

They still slot below the raps pretty much from top to bottom, but if their young guys improve significantly maybe they can shock the world.

Average of PIPM/RAPTOR/BPM/RPM last year.

Lowry (34): 4.0 (36.2mpg) ----- Young (22): 2.5 (35.3mpg)
Siakam (26): 2.2 (35.2mpg) --- Gallinari (32): 2.6 (29.6mpg)
VanVleet (26): 2.1 (35.7mpg) -- Capela (26): 1.6 (32.8mpg)
Powell (27): 1.2 (28.4mpg) ----- Collins (23): 1.3 (33.2mpg)
Anunoby (23): 0.8 (29.9mpg) --- Bogdanovic (28): 0.7 (29.0mpg)

Davis (23): 1.1 (16.8mpg) ------ Dunn (26): 1.3 (24.9mpg)
Baynes (34): -0.5 (22.2mpg) --- Rondo (34): -1.8 (20.5mpg)
Len (27): -0.4 (17.6mpg) ------- Hill (29): -2.1 (18.4mpg)
Boucher (27): 1.9 (13.2mpg) --- Okongwu (20): ---
Thomas (26): 0.3 (10.7mpg) --- Huerter (22): -2.0 (31.4mpg)

Bembry (26): -2.9 (21.3mpg) --- Hunter (23): -4.2 (32.0mpg)
McCaw (25): -3.2 (24.8mpg) --- Reddish (21): -4.3 (26.7mpg)

[Jim Todd Jr.]

Yea they look good, but this aint 2K. Raps have coaching, collective experience, and chemistry. That being said - I expect us to take a step back. Everything we built in Toronto is on pause. The practice facility, the fans, the 905. Losing that will be a factor.

[Morse Code]

Depends.

If Siakam gets in that Hyperbolic time chamber, and Freddy just incrementally gets better, with some guys stepping up?

Yeah we're like a 3rd-4th seed.

But I rate;

Bucks
Brooklyn
Sixers
Miami
Boston

better then us. We'll get smashed by the Bucks/Brooklyn for sure, since we suck at defending stars. Boston is like 50/50 always, same goes with Miami. Sixers are a cake walk, but something tells me they'll be MUCH better.

Brace yourself folks, we might be in for a rude awakening.

I agree. I get that this is a Raptors forum so we’re all biased, but I think we’re going to be a low seed with the potential to miss the playoffs altogether. I’m amazed that after all these years people still don’t value talent as high as they should. Of course hard work beats talent if talent doesn’t work hard, but we don’t have anything even close to a superstar, and most teams have multiples. I think people are unwilling to accept that this will be a down year, and that Masai and co know that and are prepared for it.

[rarefind]

They could still miss the playoffs IMO.

They can't defend.

Trae
Bogdan
Gallo

= atrocious perimeter d.

[sca]

The raps were 2nd in the league last year. With a crapton of injuries.

Replacing their 6th and 7th best players with decent replacements won't drop them down much.

I'd argue that we've replaced our T-3rd and 7th best players - who happen to play in the same position.

These ratings are according to my calculations:

84 Lowry
83 Siakam
82 VanVleet = Ibaka
80 Powell
77 Anunoby
75 Gasol
74 Davis = RHJ = Boucher
73 Thomas
71 McCaw
69 Johnson

But yeah, the Hawks are still too young to finish better than us, IMO.

nice calculations!


here are some other calculations. not my own tho!

BPM VORP

1. Lowry 2.8
2. VanV 2.3
3. Siakam 2.0
4. Anunoby 1.7
5. Powell 1.5
6. Gasol 1.1
7. Ibaka 0.8
8. Davis 0.8
9. Boucher 0.8
10. RHJ 0.6
11. Thomas 0.3
12. McCaw 0.0

RPM WINS

1. Lowry 11.1
2. Siakam 8.3
3. VanV 5.7
4. Powell 4.6
5. Gasol 3.6
6. Anunoby 2.9
7. Ibaka 2.9
8. Davis 2.8
9. Boucher 1.8
10. RHJ 1.6
11. Thomas 0.8
12. McCaw -1.2

RAPTOR WAR

1. Lowry 9.9
2. VanV 6.7
3. Anunoby 4.6
4. Siakam 4.5
5. RHJ 3.2
6. Davis 3.1
7. Gasol 3.1
8. Boucher 2.8
9. Powell 2.7
10. Ibaka 2.3
11. Thomas 1.1
12. McCaw -0.6


Average Rank

1. Lowry 1.0
2. VanV 2.3
3. Siakam 3.0
4. Anunoby 4.3
5. Powell 6.0
6. Gasol 6.0
7. Davis 7.3
8. Ibaka 8.0
9. RHJ 8.3
10. Boucher 8.7
11. Thomas 11.0
12. McCaw 12.0

These are actual calculations that are based on (some) totally made up formula(s) that take team record, SRS, play-off record, etc. and various individual stats into account. The statsheet was created with the thought of creating a 2K roster, but never came into fruition due to various reasons.

[GreatWhiteStiff]

Lock this thread until trey young plays nba average defence.

[SFour]

They could still miss the playoffs IMO.

They can't defend.

Trae
Bogdan
Gallo

= atrocious perimeter d.

even if they have a great regular (which I doubt) they're going to get exposed in the playoffs with that subpar defense. They have so many weakpoints that can be attacked.

[The_Hater]

Trae/Rondo
Bogdan/Hueter
Hunter/Reddish
Collins/Gallo
Capela/ Okongwu

They're two deep at every position! Vets and youth. Playoff experience now. Also have the Thunder 2022 1st round pick. If a star gets put on the block, no playoff team has a better package than the hawks #facts.


I'd worry about them bc that's the team that could push us to #7! Then we have to go in the play in tourny. Do you think we are better than the hawks?

It’s almost like people have never heard of defense which last time I checked, is exactly half the game.

The Hawks have a roster full of poor defenders and Kris Dunn, the Raps have one of the 3-4 best defensive teams in the league with no weak defenders in the rotation. And that’s why one team won 60 games last season while the other won 24 (pro-rated).

The Hawks have improved, but they are at best the 8th best team in the east.

[NotMyKawhi]

Trae/Rondo
Bogdan/Hueter
Hunter/Reddish
Collins/Gallo
Capela/ Okongwu

They're two deep at every position! Vets and youth. Playoff experience now. Also have the Thunder 2022 1st round pick. If a star gets put on the block, no playoff team has a better package than the hawks #facts.


I'd worry about them bc that's the team that could push us to #7! Then we have to go in the play in tourny. Do you think we are better than the hawks?

It’s almost like people have never heard of defense which last time I checked, is exactly half the game.

The Hawks have a roster full of poor defenders and Kris Dunn, the Raps have one of the 3-4 best defensive teams in the league with no weak defenders in the rotation. And that’s why one team won 60 games last season while the other won 24 (pro-rated).

The Hawks have improved, but they are at best the 8th best team in the east.

bro, rondo is an elite defender. Dunn has All-defensive team potential.

Same with Hunter, Capela isn't bad and Okongwu has Defensive player of the year potential. You're lost

[The_Hater]

Trae/Rondo
Bogdan/Hueter
Hunter/Reddish
Collins/Gallo
Capela/ Okongwu

They're two deep at every position! Vets and youth. Playoff experience now. Also have the Thunder 2022 1st round pick. If a star gets put on the block, no playoff team has a better package than the hawks #facts.


I'd worry about them bc that's the team that could push us to #7! Then we have to go in the play in tourny. Do you think we are better than the hawks?

It’s almost like people have never heard of defense which last time I checked, is exactly half the game.

The Hawks have a roster full of poor defenders and Kris Dunn, the Raps have one of the 3-4 best defensive teams in the league with no weak defenders in the rotation. And that’s why one team won 60 games last season while the other won 24 (pro-rated).

The Hawks have improved, but they are at best the 8th best team in the east.

bro, rondo is an elite defender. Dunn has All-defensive team potential.

Same with Hunter, Capela isn't bad and Okongwu has Defensive player of the year potential. You're lost

Wow. Where to start with this.

Rondo is a TERRIBLE defender. He get buried in picks and is too weak to guard most players. He hasn’t even been consider an above average defender for 7-8 years now. I’m not sure why you think he’s elite, but I suggest taking that to the Laker board and see how it flies over there.

Dunn is a fantastic defender, but he’s also one of the worst offensive players in the entire league. If the Hawks want to play him 30+ mpg to shore up the defense, don’t forget that will negatively effect the spacing and offensive efficiency as well. So you end up fixing one hole but creating another.

Hunter was a bad defender by all statistical measures last season. His rep coming in was that he was going to quite good, but he wasn’t. Reddish was also quite poor statistically. And they both started on one of the 3 worst defensive teams in the league. Both are in line to get huge minute reductions anyways which is for the best.

Okungwu has terrific defensive potential, but he’s a rookie so he will likely not be very good through the 1st year growing pains and he will not likely play a lot of minutes. The key word here is potential, you used it yourself.

Now let’s look at the projected starters who are likely to get a bulk of the minutes. Capela is a positive defender. That’s good, because he’s the only one. But he’s not Rudy Gobert either. Trae is on the short list for worst defensive player in the league. That’s a problem because he’s going to play the most minutes. Collins tries hard, but he’s a poor defender. Bogdan tries hard, but he’s a poor defender. Gallo is a decent defender at times, but that’s when he plays PF. He’s now being asked to chase around smaller, quicker SF’s though. So that’s not good. So a starting lineup with 1 positive defender, 3 negative defenders and 1 very bottom of the lewgue defender. That doesn’t sound like the recipe for a strong defensive team my friend. Kris Dunn isn’t coming in for 10 mpg and going to fix all of that

I don’t see the Hawks being above 22-24 in defensive efficiency next season with this roster and I suspect that they’ll be worse than that. If they are better than 22-24, they have grossly outplayed their defensive talent. And I strongly suggest you use facts instead of fiction to defend yourself posts next time. It helps.